In what feels like the blink of an eye, the 68th Berlinale is coming to a close. After seeing all 19 films in competition, I’d say there’s no out-and-out masterpiece à la A SEPARATION in the lineup this year. My personal favorite remains Wes Anderson’s dazzling, thoughtful ISLE OF DOGS, which is probably also the consensus winner even if the level of across-the-board support enjoyed by TAXI (2015) or FIRE AT SEA (2016) isn’t quite there.
Instead we have many solid – very good films in the mix all deserving of recognition. In fact, with the exception of DOVLATOV, THE REAL ESTATE and TOUCH ME NOT, I’d say I’ve enjoyed everything from the selection. This makes predicting the awards winners – a mostly futile undertaking anyway in such festival settings – even more difficult, but just for the fun of it, let’s go through how I think it may all go down.
Outstanding Artistic Contribution
Will win: Adam Stockhausen, Paul Harrod (production design of ISLE OF DOGS)
Should win: Martin Otterbeck (cinematography of U – JULY 22)
This award is kind of a Berlin exclusive and nearly impossible to predict, since it could go to any tech department of any film, from cinematography to editing, music, costume etc. To me the question of who should win this year is actually clear, seeing how no singular technical achievement grabbed and shook me quite like Martin Otterbeck’s camerawork in the harrowing U – JULY 22. What speaks against it is the fact that another “one-shot-wonder” has just been awarded this prize three years ago (VICTORIA) and also the jury may want to avoid “reducing” its appreciation of this particular film to a technical aspect.
Outside of this most obvious choice, I’d say the music of MUSEUM, the original songs of Lav Diaz’s controversial SEASON OF THE DEVIL and anything from the production design to the animation or Alexandre Desplat’s brilliant score for ISLE OF DOGS are all viable candidates.
Best Screenplay
Will win: MUG
Should win: ISLE OF DOGS
Considering festival juries generally tend to distribute prizes among the films they like, I’d say narratively distinct films they can’t find space for in the top categories stand the best chance. To me that includes Polish face transplant drama MUG, Iranian social media black comedy PIG and Paraguayan lesbian love story THE HEIRESSES.
Best Actor
Will win: Franz Rogowski (TRANSIT and/or IN THE AISLES)
Should win: Franz Rogowski (IN THE AISLES)
After delivering two beguiling performances in two competition films at the same festival, I’d be very surprised if Franz Rogowski does not walk away with a Silver Bear tomorrow. His obstacle? TRANSIT, the more high-profile of his two films, may end up winning something major. Although the official rules do not prohibit giving multiple awards to one film, the jury may take the opportunity to say they liked THE PRAYER (Anthony Bajon) or MUSEUM (Gael Garcia Bernal) too. Oh and we should probably not underestimate Joaquin Phoenix’s potential to surprise (DON’T WORRY, HE WON’T GET FAR ON FOOT) either.
Best Actress
Will win: Alba Rohrwacher (DAUGHTER OF MINE)
Should win: Andrea Berntzen (U – JULY 22)
As is tradition now, the race for Best Actress is again much more competitive than its male counterpart at the Berlinale. Worthy contenders abound: Ana Brun (THE HEIRESSES), Julia Zange (MY BROTHER’S NAME IS ROBERT AND HE IS AN IDIOT), Marie Bäumer (3 DAYS IN QUIBERON), Léonore Ekstrand (THE REAL ESTATE) and heck, Isabelle Huppert (EVA) is still waiting for her first Berlin Best Actress win, too. From where I stand, the always enchanting Alba Rohrwacher is likely to take this one for a meaty part in a female-centric film, edging out 19-year-old Andrea Berntzen, who gave in my mind the most impressive performance of the festival – in her film debut no less.
Best Director
Will win: Philip Gröning (MY BROTHER’S NAME IS ROBERT AND HE IS AN IDIOT)
Should win: Philip Gröning (MY BROTHER’S NAME IS ROBERT AND HE IS AN IDIOT)
There’s considerable wishful thinking involved here, seeing how I was floored by what Gröning did in his shocking incest drama. Taking out the filter of personal preference, this could easily go to Wes Anderson, Lav Diaz, Erik Poppe (U – JULY 22) or, in each case marking their second win in this category, Christian Petzold (TRANSIT) or Małgorzata Szumowska (MUG).
Alfred Bauer Prize (for a feature film that opens new perspectives)
Will win: SEASON OF THE DEVIL
Should win: SEASON OF THE DEVIL
The unofficial second runner-up prize of the Berlinale carries the footnote that it should be about the opening of new perspectives. If people really stick to that rule, I see the 4-hour a cappella musical about 1970’s Filipino dictatorship as the fitting recipient, don’t you? Obviously Diaz has won the same prize with his last film just two years ago, so that might complicate things. As alternatives I consider MY BROTHER’S NAME IS ROBERT AND HE IS AN IDIOT, ISLE OF DOGS, U – JULY 22 and the highly experimental TOUCH ME NOT to be first in line.
Grand Jury Prize
Will win: TRANSIT
Should win: THE HEIRESSES
In a year where we have a German jury president judging a lineup that includes as many as four German films among which TRANSIT has emerged as the critics’ favorite that’s not too controversial as opposed to some of its competitors, it would be an unmistakable snub if it doesn’t take home something big – if not THE prize.
Golden Bear
Will win: U – JULY 22
Should win: ISLE OF DOGS
It would upset a lot of people who hated the movie with a vengeance but it would also be a very topical/relevant choice considering the recent massacres in the States. Tom Tykwer doesn’t strike me as someone who shies away from controversies and this would give the jury the chance to not just pick a fine film, but make a statement as well. Otherwise, TRANSIT is a likely alternative, and one should not rule out the possibility of Golden Lion winner Lav Diaz claiming Berlin on his second try or the jury going for broke and giving this to MY BROTHER’S NAME IS ROBERT AND HE IS AN IDIOT.
A film that I did not include in any of my predictions but is reigning the critics’ survey alongside ISLE OF DOGS is the Russian biopic DOVLATOV. It’s unwise to bet against something this classical, substantial AND popular. But as mentioned above, this movie did nothing for me and I just couldn’t bring myself to see it as a winner. I guess – as is the case with the Oscar race – we’ll find out soon enough how dangerous personal bias is when playing the predictions game.
The winners of the 68th Berlin Film Festival will be announced tomorrow (Feb. 24).
For Animated Oscar, one year in advance, it seems it might be a battle between “Isle of Dogs” and “The Incredibles 2″… I think Anderson will have the edge, given “The Incredibles” did win it, but “Fantastic Mr. Fox” didn’t.
I´m pretty much looking forward to see “Transit” – Christian Petzold is by far my favourite german director. For anyone who hasn´t see any film of him, I recommend “Barbara” or “Phoenix” – both thrilling and superb directed.
For Animated Oscar, one year in advance, it seems it might be a battle between “Isle of Dogs” and “The Incredibles 2″… I think Anderson will have the edge, given “The Incredibles” did win it, but “Fantastic Mr. Fox” didn’t.
Off-topic, but:
[Again, if you’ve already seen this post, just skip! We already have 20-30 votes at the other site where I’m running this simulation, and plenty here as well, obviously. This is only for those who didn’t catch it and might want to vote.]
Having finally seen Phantom Thread yesterday, I can once again invite all of those willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and help us all better understand how this year’s race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot works, in general. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all who will, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes, these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) One interesting thing I will point out about the previous years’ results (which can be checked out, in detail, at the bottom of this post), is that the movie most people consider likely to have come in second place in the Best Picture race at the Oscars has finished in exactly second place in these every single time, for the last four years in a row, so perhaps this is something to look out for this year as well… So, without further ado…
7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Please rank the Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you want each of them to win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rank them according to your own tastes and wishes instead, of course)!
I would say, ideally, a voter should have at least seen all of the following, which are the only ones I find likely to win or come close to winning this simulation – or win at the Academy Awards themselves -, based on what I’ve heard about other, similar polls taken this year, and so on: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I’ve listed them in alphabetical order, so as to minimally influence voting.) And maybe also Phantom Thread. I’m thinking this would be best because I expect even Academy voters, in this day and age, will pretty much have all seen at least the 2-3 (and, in this year’s case, maybe 4-5) movies that have the best chances of winning the Oscar in any given year, before completing their ballots. Beyond this, there are no guidelines. Vote as you like, but rank all of those first six I mentioned, please, don’t leave them off your ballot, or I might decide to not count it!
Voting will be open, I suspect, for no more than 3-4 days – I think there are solid reasons to do it this way. If somebody tells me they’re about to go see the last key contender they haven’t seen yet, and then want to vote, then I’ll, of course, extend the deadline for another day or two, like I did in previous years.
My ballot for this year (with a fairly obvious strategic placing of a certain movie, which 99% won’t help said movie at all, but also can’t hurt/alter anything significant):
1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Shape of Water
9. Call Me By Your Name
(My mother won’t be voting this year, as she just hasn’t seen enough of the nominees, and hasn’t seen The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name, of the strongest ones.)
The previous years’ results:
2011 The Social Network — details not saved
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty —– 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her —————— 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on 1st round 1st places
2015 Birdman ————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ———— 41-32 over La La Land
1. Phantom Thread
2. Call Me by Your Name
3. Dunkirk
4. Lady Bird
5. The Shape of Water
6. Three Billboards
7. The Post
8. Get Out
9. Darkest Hour
1.Phantom Thread
2.Three BIllboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
3.The Shape of Water
4.Lady Bird
5.Darkest Hour
6.Get Out
7.The Post
8.Call Me By Your Name
9.Dunkirk
I´m pretty much looking forward to see “Transit” – Christian Petzold is by far my favourite german director. For anyone who hasn´t see any film of him, I recommend “Barbara” or “Phoenix” – both thrilling and superb directed.
Off-topic, but:
[Again, if you’ve already seen this post, just skip! We already have 20-30 votes at the other site where I’m running this simulation, and plenty here as well, obviously. This is only for those who didn’t catch it and might want to vote.]
Having finally seen Phantom Thread yesterday, I can once again invite all of those willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and help us all better understand how this year’s race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot works, in general. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all who will, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes, these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) One interesting thing I will point out about the previous years’ results (which can be checked out, in detail, at the bottom of this post), is that the movie most people consider likely to have come in second place in the Best Picture race at the Oscars has finished in exactly second place in these every single time, for the last four years in a row, so perhaps this is something to look out for this year as well… So, without further ado…
7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Please rank the Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you want each of them to win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rank them according to your own tastes and wishes instead, of course)!
I would say, ideally, a voter should have at least seen all of the following, which are the only ones I find likely to win or come close to winning this simulation – or win at the Academy Awards themselves -, based on what I’ve heard about other, similar polls taken this year, and so on: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I’ve listed them in alphabetical order, so as to minimally influence voting.) And maybe also Phantom Thread. I’m thinking this would be best because I expect even Academy voters, in this day and age, will pretty much have all seen at least the 2-3 (and, in this year’s case, maybe 4-5) movies that have the best chances of winning the Oscar in any given year, before completing their ballots. Beyond this, there are no guidelines. Vote as you like, but rank all of those first six I mentioned, please, don’t leave them off your ballot, or I might decide to not count it!
Voting will be open, I suspect, for no more than 3-4 days – I think there are solid reasons to do it this way. If somebody tells me they’re about to go see the last key contender they haven’t seen yet, and then want to vote, then I’ll, of course, extend the deadline for another day or two, like I did in previous years.
My ballot for this year (with a fairly obvious strategic placing of a certain movie, which 99% won’t help said movie at all, but also can’t hurt/alter anything significant):
1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Shape of Water
9. Call Me By Your Name
(My mother won’t be voting this year, as she just hasn’t seen enough of the nominees, and hasn’t seen The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name, of the strongest ones.)
The previous years’ results:
2011 The Social Network — details not saved
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty —– 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her —————— 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on 1st round 1st places
2015 Birdman ————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ———— 41-32 over La La Land
1. Phantom Thread
2. Call Me by Your Name
3. Dunkirk
4. Lady Bird
5. The Shape of Water
6. Three Billboards
7. The Post
8. Get Out
9. Darkest Hour
1.Phantom Thread
2.Three BIllboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
3.The Shape of Water
4.Lady Bird
5.Darkest Hour
6.Get Out
7.The Post
8.Call Me By Your Name
9.Dunkirk