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Jazz was still out of the country so Ryan, Marshall and I spent an hour or so going over the conundrum of this year’s crazy Best Picture race and how we think it might go. I suppose that any prediction this year would be acceptable since no one knows how it will end up, especially given the surprising nature of last year’s finish. Have a listen.
Let me know what you think about this:
Get Out explores white American racism through the black perspective but what probably works against it is that it shows white Americans who on the surface are very polite and very nice while in their heart they are sick and perverse and extremely racist and want to use blacks as their servants, sex slaves, etc.
Three Billboards on the other hand explores American racism through the white perspective but to me what probably works in its favor is that despite the fact that on the surface there is a lot of blatant racism and political incorrectness throughout the whole movie, towards the end you feel that hope that inside the racist’s soul there is some good and maybe a hope for change.
With Get Out you don’t feel that. You just accept that whites are racists, you root for the black guy and it is what it is. With 3B, you end up feeling a little bit of hope despite all the darkness in the movie.
Anyway, let me know what you think.
But exactly this development is what so many people are furious about, so I doubt that it works in the film’s favor. People are angry that a racist is redeemed at the end (I don’t say he is but people do and maybe they have a point, who knows).
See, I don’t know what’s actually the reality but in one case the film (3B) finishes a little ambiguous and somewhat hopeful while with Get Out there is no ambiguity – whites are fucking racists and we (black people) need to stick together because that will never change.
So, even if that is true – it kinda turns off (white) voters because it kinda sets things in stone. With 3B, there is this hope for change (even if it may not be real.)
I am not trying to argue one way or the other. Just trying to figure out – just not sure if voters will want to vote for a film that basically tells them that inside their soul they are racists and that will never change despite all the pleasantries and politeness on the surface…
I actually disagree with you on this one. I didn’t even like Get Out but at the end all I felt way: Gee, I hope this never ever happens. To anyone. I didn’t see it as an attack on WASPs but as a very clever commentary on the many faces of racism, and evil as a whole.
I was so pissed. I was completely in sync and was rooting wholeheartedly with the main character. I actually became bloodthirsty and wanted him to kill the bitch.
But if you step away from it – again with Get Out everything is clear cut. With 3B it’s much more complex and nuanced.
So Academy snobs may hold that against it. But what do I know? I still liked it a lot.
But I understand your point. I just disagree with the statement that this would help 3B, as 3B has major issues in this particular direction as well. But your comment made me think of how Jordan Peele had changed the ending of Get Out. Would the film have been a success with the other ending, in which the lead is presented as a martyr of sorts. “I stopped them.” This would have been a completely different film and it would have turned off plenty of people, I guess.
Anyway, this is such a weird year. The more I think about this race, the more I believe that we should not focus on three films only. If a film fails to win on the first round, things might go crazy and I wouldn’t be too shocked if something like CMBYN or Phantom Thread wins in the end. It even would make me extremely happy, as I really would like all stats to fail. And this is the perfect year for that.
P.S. I doubt there was anybody who didn’t really want him to just kill her.
Especially when the police car came and she was hoping that a white cop would show up. It was really well done. Gosh, it’s a tough one. Both are really, really good movies. It’s tough that only one of them can win.
I think you’re very likely right in your assumptions about Academy voters. 🙂 That’s all I’ll say…
Ditto !!!
Plenty of those anonymous voters went for Chalamet.
No chance
Well, at least I’m not saying it. 🙂 Maybe others have, and I haven’t seen those comments.
But I don’t think it’s the kind of flaws they tend to care about… 🙂
We’re not saying it doesn’t mean anything. We’re saying it means less than SAG ensemble, or BAFTA BP + editing + too few nominations, etc.
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET can still pull an upset for Gary Oldman.
If Grace Kelly in Country Girl could beat Judy Garland for A Star Is Born, so can Timmy.
3 Billboards is losing you fools. No movie has ever won best picture that’s had such a dumb title like this. It’s too complicated. And no female driven film has won since 2004. Sorry Not happening. My psychics agree that best director snub stings. And Frances looked like a man the entire time. She should be up for best actor.
Get Out wins in a landslide. The MeToo movement, racial riots and that original screenplay lock tell me it’s easy peasy. And it’s the movie folks have seen. Can’t win best picture without actual money in the bank. Hurt Locker doesn’t count because everyone watched it on Netflix.
And Margot Robbie is winning. I, Tonya is swooping in to go 3/3 including editing. Those ice skating scenes made me feel like I was back at the 1994 olympics. Did you know I was there the night Kerrigan won the silver? I was backstage doing my readings. She was a very rude young lady.
With your history, looks good for 3 Billboards.
3 Billboards is losing you fools. No movie has ever won best picture that’s had such a dumb title like this. It’s too complicated. And no female driven film has won since 2004. Sorry Not happening. My psychics agree that best director snub stings. And Frances looked like a man the entire time. She should be up for best actor.
Get Out wins in a landslide. The MeToo movement, racial riots and that original screenplay lock tell me it’s easy peasy. And it’s the movie folks have seen. Can’t win best picture without actual money in the bank. Hurt Locker doesn’t count because everyone watched it on Netflix.
And Margot Robbie is winning. I, Tonya is swooping in to go 3/3 including editing. Those ice skating scenes made me feel like I was back at the 1994 olympics. Did you know I was there the night Kerrigan won the silver? I was backstage doing my readings. She was a very rude young lady.
I love listening to you guys on the podcasts. Sasha, the depth of reasoning you give in the podcasts is always thoughtful and illuminating. And it was awesome hearing your turnaround on Three Billboards and how you came to appreciate it.
I love listening to you guys on the podcasts. Sasha, the depth of reasoning you give in the podcasts is always thoughtful and illuminating. And it was awesome hearing your turnaround on Three Billboards and how you came to appreciate it.
[I’m going to post this more than one place, obviously…]
I’d like to start by once again thanking all of those who were kind enough to take part in this traditional poll I always do around this point in the race! I got more votes than expected… So, I decided to, as advertised, only count ballots that ranked at least all of the following movies: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. (So, all of the nominees except for The Post and Darkest Hour, which were, unsurprisingly, eliminated first and second, by a margin that leaves no doubt as to their lack of relevance for the final results. As can be seen, I did decide to include Phantom Thread in the list of must-ranks – which, as stated in the OP, I wasn’t sure beforehand was necessary -, along with the six I specified in my recommendations, after a preliminary count made it clear it was going to be in the mix for first place.)
Eligible ballots were collected from IMDb (26) and Awards Daily (46), for a total of 72 ballots counted, just one fewer than last year – like I said, my mom didn’t vote this year (her ranking of the nominees she’s seen goes: 1. Three Billboards 2. Darkest Hour 3. Lady Bird 5. Dunkirk 4. Get Out, by the way), so that would be the difference there, interestingly, though I’m quite sure the voting pool isn’t exactly the same. 🙂 Especially since the 46-26 ratio is very different – understandably, given the closing of the IMDb boards since. (I collected the votes from the forums to which most former IMDb members seem to have relocated, but of course those didn’t generate quite as many votes as the old forums would have.) Last year there were almost exactly as many ballots taken from IMDb as there were from Awards Daily. Two years ago, there were 53 IMDb ballots and 35 from Awards Daily… In 2015, it was equal between the two sites, like last year, and before that, I was only running the simulation at IMDb, as I wasn’t yet visiting Awards Daily. Anyway, all of that out of the way, here are the…
Results For The 7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
First off, I should note that I encountered a situation in this simulation I’ve never encountered before, and I have no knowledge of how the people that tally the votes for the Oscars would go about breaking such a tie. Specifically, when there were three movies left, two movies were tied for second place… so, the problem that arose was: which should get eliminated? Normally, one eliminates both, but this couldn’t be done here, for pretty obvious reasons. No movie had over 50% of the vote (or anywhere near that) yet. Thankfully, the winner would have been the same – the movie that was leading at that time – in both cases, so it wasn’t terribly important, except to establish which movie would place second and which would place third. I just did the thing that seemed most sensible to me: I counted to see by how many votes each of the two would lose in the “finals”, were the other eliminated, and then eliminated the movie that would have lost by the greater difference. (Which also happened to be the movie with fewer first place votes overall, which would have been the other logical way to break the tie.) Details can be found in the breakdown below!…
The first round resulted in three movies being pretty clearly ahead of the rest: Call Me By Your Name and Phantom Thread with 15 first place votes each, and Three Billboards with 14 votes. Darkest Hour got zero votes, and got eliminated first. The Post got only my strategic vote, and was, therefore, eliminated next. (At least I managed to help it avoid last place! My vote then went to Dunkirk and, ultimately, Phantom Thread in the finals.) Lady Bird and Get Out followed. The Shape of Water had two more first place votes (9) than Dunkirk (7) after the first round, but the latter had caught up by the time Lady Bird was eliminated, and then picked up three votes from the Get Out crowd, to The Shape of Water’s two, and, thus, the latter was eliminated in fifth place, despite having been in fourth place after the first round. Yet more evidence of its divisiveness, and the fact that it’s, perhaps, unlikely to do very well on a preferential ballot itself, unless those voting are all producers…
Dunkirk got eliminated next, being nowhere near the top three vote-getters; then the aforementioned tie occurred, and Three Billboards was the movie that got knocked out. Phantom Thread was the somewhat surprising overall winner of the simulation, beating the “bookies’ favorite” 🙂 for any online poll this year, Call Me By Your Name, by 39 votes to 33. A pretty close result, but nowhere near as close as those in other years. Three Billboards’ excellent performance here, with an unprecedentedly narrow third place exit (it and Call Me By Your Name were both only three votes off first place at the time, by the way), isn’t entirely surprising, given that it’s the movie with the highest score on IMDb of the Best Picture nominees. But I still expected it to do worse than this, based on the backlash it’s undergone at Awards Daily. And I most certainly expected The Shape of Water to do better than it did! Ditto Get Out and Dunkirk…
As for historical considerations, like I mentioned before, of the six years I’d previously done this simulation, only twice (Moonlight and Birdman) was the Academy’s winner in the top two. It won both times. So, the movie that came in second place in these simulations has never won Best Picture. Of course, this year there was this unexpected tie when it got to the top three, which makes it unclear whether Call Me By Your Name or Three Billboards is the movie that actually came in second place. By all criteria I can come up with, it would be Call Me By Your Name, but other people might come up with something else I didn’t think of, that would make Three Billboards come in second – I don’t see what that could be, but who knows?! As for previous BP winners and their performances in my simulations in the years for which I’ve saved the details: Spotlight finished tied for 3rd-4th, with Room, as did 12 Years a Slave (tied with The Wolf of Wall Street, in that case), while Argo came in 8th, so it was the second one knocked out, after Lincoln – it only got 3 first place votes. Lincoln had 2. Moonlight and Birdman, like I mentioned above, came in first. So, first and third seem to be good places to finish in this thing, if one wants to win BP at the Oscars, while second probably isn’t. But tied for second is unprecedented, anyway, like I said, so it’s hard to say what this means. Probably nothing, of course. 🙂 It’s just fun to look at… (As for Shape finishing 5th, well, one can say it’s irrelevant, and it probably is, but it sure doesn’t look great for a 13-nomination movie. La La Land was second, last year. At least Shape didn’t do as badly as Lincoln and finish dead last…)
I also decided to do separate counts for IMDb and Awards Daily this year, in addition to the main one, out of sheer curiosity – I counted my ballot as an Awards Daily vote, although, looking at the results and how they compare to my ballot, I’d probably fit in a lot better with the IMDb voters -, with the following results, which also help explain some of what went down in the main simulation:
At Awards Daily, unsurprisingly, Call Me By Your Name won, 26-20 over The Shape of Water in the finals. Phantom Thread was out in 3rd, Three Billboards and Get Out coming in 4th-5th. After the first round, Call Me By Your Name had 13 first places and The Shape of Water was in clear second place with 9 first places. Then came the other three that completed the top five, on 6. It should be noted that all of The Shape of Water’s first places came from Awards Daily! Also, in this AD-specific simulation, like in the other one, it never really picked up any more new votes than the movies eliminated before it, and it just coasted to second place on the strength of its initial 3-point advantage. It also picked up only 11 new votes in total by the end, to Call Me By Your Name’s 13, meaning it in no way benefitted – nor had to suffer – from the preferential count.
Among IMDb voters, The Shape of Water, Get Out, The Post and Darkest Hour all got 0 first place votes, so they were eliminated right away! Phantom Thread had 9 first place votes, and Three Billboards had 8. The other three left, Dunkirk (4), Lady Bird (3) and Call Me By Your Name (2), got eliminated shortly thereafter, and the finals went Three Billboards’ way, by 14-12. Here, therefore, the BAFTA winner benefited quite a bit from the preferential system, gaining three more votes compared to Phantom Thread, by the end. Of course, the challenge for Three Billboards at the Oscars isn’t to beat an equally divisive movie like Phantom Thread… although maybe it is, if it really is down to it and The Shape of Water for the top prize. It’s hard to say.
Interesting observations: Call Me By Your Name got 13 of its 15 first round first places from Awards Daily, and only two from IMDb. Phantom Thread and Three Billboards both, evidently, did much better with IMDb voters, collecting a clear majority of their first place votes from them, and this with almost twice as few ballots in play there… Dunkirk and Lady Bird both did slightly better in terms of first places at IMDb (they each got one extra first place from those voters, compared to Awards Daily) – again, with a lot fewer ballots in play there. And, finally, Get Out is the second-most extreme example, after The Shape of Water (with its 9 first places at Awards Daily and 0 at IMDb), as it, too, got all 6 of its first place votes from Awards Daily.
I think these very pronounced differences between the two sites’ preferences go to show just how divided support is for the various movies among different groups this year (something also evident in the pretty much total break between critic award winners and major awards winners this Oscar season, among other things), very much unlike last year, when Moonlight was strong everywhere – except BAFTA -, as was La La Land. Which perhaps means we could still get a big upset at the Oscars, if those voters, too, decide to somehow break from everything that’s come before them… Or not. We do have the evidence of their nominations, plus the many guild results (and the strong stats attached to both), there, at least, so maybe they will, as always, prove somewhat more predictable. We’ll know in just a little bit.
Round-by-round breakdown of the main count:
Round 1
Call Me By Your Name 15
Phantom Thread 15
Three Billboards 14
The Shape of Water 9
Dunkirk 7
Get Out 6
Lady Bird 5
The Post 1
Darkest Hour 0 OUT!
Round 2
Call Me By Your Name 15
Phantom Thread 15
Three Billboards 14
The Shape of Water 9
Dunkirk 7
Get Out 6
Lady Bird 5
The Post 1 OUT!
Round 3
Call Me By Your Name 15
Phantom Thread 15
Three Billboards 14
The Shape of Water 9
Dunkirk 8
Get Out 6
Lady Bird 5 OUT!
Round 4
Phantom Thread 17
Three Billboards 16
Call Me By Your Name 15
Dunkirk 9
The Shape of Water 9
Get Out 6 OUT!
Round 5
Phantom Thread 18
Three Billboards 16
Call Me By Your Name 15
Dunkirk 12
The Shape of Water 11 OUT!
Round 6
Phantom Thread 22
Call Me By Your Name 19
Three Billboards 18
Dunkirk 13 OUT!
Round 7
Phantom Thread 26
Call Me By Your Name 23
Three Billboards 23 OUT! (would lose 31-41)
Round 8
Phantom Thread 39
Call Me By Your Name 33
[I’m going to post this more than one place, obviously…]
I’d like to start by once again thanking all of those who were kind enough to take part in this traditional poll I always do around this point in the race! I got more votes than expected… So, I decided to, as advertised, only count ballots that ranked at least all of the following movies: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. (So, all of the nominees except for The Post and Darkest Hour, which were, unsurprisingly, eliminated first and second, by a margin that leaves no doubt as to their lack of relevance for the final results. As can be seen, I did decide to include Phantom Thread in the list of must-ranks – which, as stated in the OP, I wasn’t sure beforehand was necessary -, along with the six I specified in my recommendations, after a preliminary count made it clear it was going to be in the mix for first place.)
Eligible ballots were collected from IMDb (26) and Awards Daily (46), for a total of 72 ballots counted, just one fewer than last year – like I said, my mom didn’t vote this year (her ranking of the nominees she’s seen goes: 1. Three Billboards 2. Darkest Hour 3. Lady Bird 5. Dunkirk 4. Get Out, by the way), so that would be the difference there, interestingly, though I’m quite sure the voting pool isn’t exactly the same. 🙂 Especially since the 46-26 ratio is very different – understandably, given the closing of the IMDb boards since. (I collected the votes from the forums to which most former IMDb members seem to have relocated, but of course those didn’t generate quite as many votes as the old forums would have.) Last year there were almost exactly as many ballots taken from IMDb as there were from Awards Daily. Two years ago, there were 53 IMDb ballots and 35 from Awards Daily… In 2015, it was equal between the two sites, like last year, and before that, I was only running the simulation at IMDb, as I wasn’t yet visiting Awards Daily. Anyway, all of that out of the way, here are the…
Results For The 7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
First off, I should note that I encountered a situation in this simulation I’ve never encountered before, and I have no knowledge of how the people that tally the votes for the Oscars would go about breaking such a tie. Specifically, when there were three movies left, two movies were tied for second place… so, the problem that arose was: which should get eliminated? Normally, one eliminates both, but this couldn’t be done here, for pretty obvious reasons. No movie had over 50% of the vote (or anywhere near that) yet. Thankfully, the winner would have been the same – the movie that was leading at that time – in both cases, so it wasn’t terribly important, except to establish which movie would place second and which would place third. I just did the thing that seemed most sensible to me: I counted to see by how many votes each of the two would lose in the “finals”, were the other eliminated, and then eliminated the movie that would have lost by the greater difference. (Which also happened to be the movie with fewer first place votes overall, which would have been the other logical way to break the tie.) Details can be found in the breakdown below!…
The first round resulted in three movies being pretty clearly ahead of the rest: Call Me By Your Name and Phantom Thread with 15 first place votes each, and Three Billboards with 14 votes. Darkest Hour got zero votes, and got eliminated first. The Post got only my strategic vote, and was, therefore, eliminated next. (At least I managed to help it avoid last place! My vote then went to Dunkirk and, ultimately, Phantom Thread in the finals.) Lady Bird and Get Out followed. The Shape of Water had two more first place votes (9) than Dunkirk (7) after the first round, but the latter had caught up by the time Lady Bird was eliminated, and then picked up three votes from the Get Out crowd, to The Shape of Water’s two, and, thus, the latter was eliminated in fifth place, despite having been in fourth place after the first round. Yet more evidence of its divisiveness, and the fact that it’s, perhaps, unlikely to do very well on a preferential ballot itself, unless those voting are all producers…
Dunkirk got eliminated next, being nowhere near the top three vote-getters; then the aforementioned tie occurred, and Three Billboards was the movie that got knocked out. Phantom Thread was the somewhat surprising overall winner of the simulation, beating the “bookies’ favorite” 🙂 for any online poll this year, Call Me By Your Name, by 39 votes to 33. A pretty close result, but nowhere near as close as those in other years. Three Billboards’ excellent performance here, with an unprecedentedly narrow third place exit (it and Call Me By Your Name were both only three votes off first place at the time, by the way), isn’t entirely surprising, given that it’s the movie with the highest score on IMDb of the Best Picture nominees. But I still expected it to do worse than this, based on the backlash it’s undergone at Awards Daily. And I most certainly expected The Shape of Water to do better than it did! Ditto Get Out and Dunkirk…
As for historical considerations, like I mentioned before, of the six years I’d previously done this simulation, only twice (Moonlight and Birdman) was the Academy’s winner in the top two. It won both times. So, the movie that came in second place in these simulations has never won Best Picture. Of course, this year there was this unexpected tie when it got to the top three, which makes it unclear whether Call Me By Your Name or Three Billboards is the movie that actually came in second place. By all criteria I can come up with, it would be Call Me By Your Name, but other people might come up with something else I didn’t think of, that would make Three Billboards come in second – I don’t see what that could be, but who knows?! As for previous BP winners and their performances in my simulations in the years for which I’ve saved the details: Spotlight finished tied for 3rd-4th, with Room, as did 12 Years a Slave (tied with The Wolf of Wall Street, in that case), while Argo came in 8th, so it was the second one knocked out, after Lincoln – it only got 3 first place votes. Lincoln had 2. Moonlight and Birdman, like I mentioned above, came in first. So, first and third seem to be good places to finish in this thing, if one wants to win BP at the Oscars, while second probably isn’t. But tied for second is unprecedented, anyway, like I said, so it’s hard to say what this means. Probably nothing, of course. 🙂 It’s just fun to look at… (As for Shape finishing 5th, well, one can say it’s irrelevant, and it probably is, but it sure doesn’t look great for a 13-nomination movie. La La Land was second, last year. At least Shape didn’t do as badly as Lincoln and finish dead last…)
I also decided to do separate counts for IMDb and Awards Daily this year, in addition to the main one, out of sheer curiosity – I counted my ballot as an Awards Daily vote, although, looking at the results and how they compare to my ballot, I’d probably fit in a lot better with the IMDb voters -, with the following results, which also help explain some of what went down in the main simulation:
At Awards Daily, unsurprisingly, Call Me By Your Name won, 26-20 over The Shape of Water in the finals. Phantom Thread was out in 3rd, Three Billboards and Get Out coming in 4th-5th. After the first round, Call Me By Your Name had 13 first places and The Shape of Water was in clear second place with 9 first places. Then came the other three that completed the top five, on 6. It should be noted that all of The Shape of Water’s first places came from Awards Daily! Also, in this AD-specific simulation, like in the other one, it never really picked up any more new votes than the movies eliminated before it, and it just coasted to second place on the strength of its initial 3-point advantage. It also picked up only 11 new votes in total by the end, to Call Me By Your Name’s 13, meaning it in no way benefitted – nor had to suffer – from the preferential count.
Among IMDb voters, The Shape of Water, Get Out, The Post and Darkest Hour all got 0 first place votes, so they were eliminated right away! Phantom Thread had 9 first place votes, and Three Billboards had 8. The other three left, Dunkirk (4), Lady Bird (3) and Call Me By Your Name (2), got eliminated shortly thereafter, and the finals went Three Billboards’ way, by 14-12. Here, therefore, the BAFTA winner benefited quite a bit from the preferential system, gaining three more votes compared to Phantom Thread, by the end. Of course, the challenge for Three Billboards at the Oscars isn’t to beat an equally divisive movie like Phantom Thread… although maybe it is, if it really is down to it and The Shape of Water for the top prize. It’s hard to say.
Interesting observations: Call Me By Your Name got 13 of its 15 first round first places from Awards Daily, and only two from IMDb. Phantom Thread and Three Billboards both, evidently, did much better with IMDb voters, collecting a clear majority of their first place votes from them, and this with almost twice as few ballots in play there… Dunkirk and Lady Bird both did slightly better in terms of first places at IMDb (they each got one extra first place from those voters, compared to Awards Daily) – again, with a lot fewer ballots in play there. And, finally, Get Out is the second-most extreme example, after The Shape of Water (with its 9 first places at Awards Daily and 0 at IMDb), as it, too, got all 6 of its first place votes from Awards Daily.
I think these very pronounced differences between the two sites’ preferences go to show just how divided support is for the various movies among different groups this year (something also evident in the pretty much total break between critic award winners and major awards winners this Oscar season, among other things), very much unlike last year, when Moonlight was strong everywhere – except BAFTA -, as was La La Land. Which perhaps means we could still get a big upset at the Oscars, if those voters, too, decide to somehow break from everything that’s come before them… Or not. We do have the evidence of their nominations, plus the many guild results (and the strong stats attached to both), there, at least, so maybe they will, as always, prove somewhat more predictable. We’ll know in just a little bit.
Round-by-round breakdown of the main count:
Round 1
Call Me By Your Name 15
Phantom Thread 15
Three Billboards 14
The Shape of Water 9
Dunkirk 7
Get Out 6
Lady Bird 5
The Post 1
Darkest Hour 0 OUT!
Round 2
Call Me By Your Name 15
Phantom Thread 15
Three Billboards 14
The Shape of Water 9
Dunkirk 7
Get Out 6
Lady Bird 5
The Post 1 OUT!
Round 3
Call Me By Your Name 15
Phantom Thread 15
Three Billboards 14
The Shape of Water 9
Dunkirk 8
Get Out 6
Lady Bird 5 OUT!
Round 4
Phantom Thread 17
Three Billboards 16
Call Me By Your Name 15
Dunkirk 9
The Shape of Water 9
Get Out 6 OUT!
Round 5
Phantom Thread 18
Three Billboards 16
Call Me By Your Name 15
Dunkirk 12
The Shape of Water 11 OUT!
Round 6
Phantom Thread 22
Call Me By Your Name 19
Three Billboards 18
Dunkirk 13 OUT!
Round 7
Phantom Thread 26
Call Me By Your Name 23
Three Billboards 23 OUT! (would lose 31-41)
Round 8
Phantom Thread 39
Call Me By Your Name 33
It’s only a HUGE MYSTERY if you’re clueless ! I mean , for facks sake , imagine if you were a homicide detective ; by the time you figured out ”who dun it” he’d have turned into a serial killer !
Pssssst I can let you into a little secret ; 3 Billboards is going to win BP !
I have 3 Billboards for Best Picture. So hopefully we’re right. But there is a chance it won’t go that way. As you pointed out apparently no director nomination may mean something. I’m not the enemy here. I’m analyzing this because it can def go other routes.
The big questions is whether 3 Bills can win Screenplay over Get Out. I’m
Still on the fence.
I liked both, but I definitely liked TFP more than Tangerine. I didn’t quite love either, but with TFP it was closer to that.
Awesome to learn all of this – thanks! Is there some site where one can check Oscar odds retroactively for all/most recent years?
Well, this would be a shocker: Get Out wins BP, OS aaaaaand BD … yes, lonnng shot, Jordan Peele.
I’ve got Peele as my runner-up to del Toro, rather than the popular assumption of Nolan. If Get Out does surprise for BP and del Toro is affected by these plagiarism accusations, I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see it happen.
BP isn’t as a huge of a mystery as you claim. 3B has won both SAG and BAFTA. GO failed to get a BAFTA nod and only won WGA because 3B wasn’t eligible.
Those were still considered shock wins. NOBODY and I mean NO- BO -DY had Juliette Binoche winning the Oscar. SHE even said in HER speech “I thought Lauren was going to win it.” It’s easy to claim someone wasn’t an upset AFTER the fact. But don’t try to front now. BAFTA before the 2000s didn’t mean as much.
Ditto for Marcia Gay Harden. She won the New York Film Critics, but otherwise had been absent. The money was on Hudson, or SAG winner Judi Dench (Chocolat).
Just to add to your point BAFTA actually took place after the Oscars back then.
Bacall’s face is a picture.
You’re missing the point. In the examples stated, NO one dominated the televised precursors. Whereas this year, all 4 acting front runners are the same with BFCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA. I am willing to bet you that there will be NO upsets in any of these categories.
No, No, No. People keep saying that just because Argo won without a best director nomination that director doesn’t mean anything anymore. Not true!! Argo was only the FOURTH film in 89 years to win without a director nom. It’s still a huge hurdle. Not saying that 3 Billboards can’t overcome it this year, but but people need to stop dismissing how big a deal it still is to not be nominated for best director.
Best Picture is a HUGE mystery this year (which is always fun!) This reminds me of 2015– Spotlight vs Big Short vs Revenant vs Mad Max. This year, 3 Films potentially have a shot. Let’s review…
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PROS- Golden Globe, BAFTA, SAG Ensemble, Socially Important
CONS – No Director Nod, Divisive
2. Get Out
PROS – Biggest Box-Office, WGA, Socially Important
CONS.- No other big awards; lost Globe & SAG
3. Shape of Water
PROS – PGA, Winning Best Director, Safe
CONS – Fantasy Film, NOT SOCIALLY important, lack of SAG Ensemble nod
It’s pretty cray cray. On paper, 3 Billboards seems like the pick. BUT with preferential ballots, it could be too divisive and MORE people seem to like Get Out more in conversation. HOWEVER, it’s got everything else in its corner. The lack of no director nod means nothing ever since Argo won in 2012 without it (yeah, poor Ben, whatever). Like Get Out, its socially important with more bite and with more locked up awards- acting, plus it could defeat Get Out for Screenplay. Get Out’s biggest advantage IS the preferential ballot. Because usually the “second place” movie wins, this is your horse. But because it hasn’t won anything else of significance in terms of best picture (even losing GG to Lady Bird), I say nay.
Shape of Water won Producers Guild, but they’ve been wrong recently (picking Big Short and La La Land). It also lost the Globe to 3 Billboards, BAFTA as well. Its leading lady even losing to McDormand. It WILL win Director, but its fantasy theme is a big drawback on top of its lack of SAG Ensemble (no film since Braveheart has won the Oscar without one). Fantasy films never win here since preferential came into play. The only slight exception could be Birdman, but 2014 was a WEAK year and technically you could say the Michael Keaton comeback flick was an “actors movie”. My money is on 3 Billboards- but Get Out is lurking.
Spotlight won SAG ensemble and was nominated for BAFTA. 3B is the only film this year to have the SAG and BAFTA Best Picture nods.
I never said Spotlight didn’t. What are you talking about dude?
BP isn’t as a huge of a mystery as you claim. 3B has won both SAG and BAFTA. GO failed to get a BAFTA nod and only won WGA because 3B wasn’t eligible.
BP is a mystery. Why do you think all the pundits are talking about it being one? Stop commenting if you’re not fit to duel.
Nothing I stated are “alternate facts”.
No, not everything. You’re annoying subjective opinions about it not being a mystery year are YOUR opinion. And as you proved in your other commentary on there not being upsets with Binoche winning, uh yeah you’re delusional. I’m done discussing anything more with you. Go back under your bridge.
Stop commenting if you’re not fit to duel. Everything I stated are FACTS. Bionche won BAFTA. 3B won SAG/BAFTA. GO was snub by BAFTA and won WGA where 3B was not eligible. 3B is the only film to have both the SAG and BAFTA nods – like Spotlight. ALL FACTS.
No, No, No. People keep saying that just because Argo won without a best director nomination that director doesn’t mean anything anymore. Not true!! Argo was only the FOURTH film in 89 years to win without a director nom. It’s still a huge hurdle. Not saying that 3 Billboards can’t overcome it this year, but but people need to stop dismissing how big a deal it still is to not be nominated for best director.
Recently though Best Picture has not needed Best Director to be victorious. Not to say it wasn’t nominated, but still. I really don’t think that BD matters much in terms of winning it all- and that IS because of the preferential. Voters aren’t thinking “OH Waitttt- I can’t rank 3B THAT hight- it failed a director nomination. I’ll just rank it last, thank you!” Nope. Doesn’t work that way.
*rank high
Yes they have needed it recently. They haven’t necessarily needed to win best director to win best picture, but they’ve needed to be nominated. I repeat….FOUR times in 89 years.
It’s only a HUGE MYSTERY if you’re clueless ! I mean , for facks sake , imagine if you were a homicide detective ; by the time you figured out ”who dun it” he’d have turned into a serial killer !
Pssssst I can let you into a little secret ; 3 Billboards is going to win BP !
I have 3 Billboards for Best Picture. So hopefully we’re right. But there is a chance it won’t go that way. As you pointed out apparently no director nomination may mean something. I’m not the enemy here. I’m analyzing this because it can def go other routes.
The big questions is whether 3 Bills can win Screenplay over Get Out. I’m
Still on the fence.
Best Picture is a HUGE mystery this year (which is always fun!) This reminds me of 2015– Spotlight vs Big Short vs Revenant vs Mad Max. This year, 3 Films potentially have a shot. Let’s review…
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PROS- Golden Globe, BAFTA, SAG Ensemble, Socially Important
CONS – No Director Nod, Divisive
2. Get Out
PROS – Biggest Box-Office, WGA, Socially Important
CONS.- No other big awards; lost Globe & SAG
3. Shape of Water
PROS – PGA, Winning Best Director, Safe
CONS – Fantasy Film, NOT SOCIALLY important, lack of SAG Ensemble nod
It’s pretty cray cray. On paper, 3 Billboards seems like the pick. BUT with preferential ballots, it could be too divisive and MORE people seem to like Get Out more in conversation. HOWEVER, it’s got everything else in its corner. The lack of no director nod means nothing ever since Argo won in 2012 without it (yeah, poor Ben, whatever). Like Get Out, its socially important with more bite and with more locked up awards- acting, plus it could defeat Get Out for Screenplay. Get Out’s biggest advantage IS the preferential ballot. Because usually the “second place” movie wins, this is your horse. But because it hasn’t won anything else of significance in terms of best picture (even losing GG to Lady Bird), I say nay.
Shape of Water won Producers Guild, but they’ve been wrong recently (picking Big Short and La La Land). It also lost the Globe to 3 Billboards, BAFTA as well. Its leading lady even losing to McDormand. It WILL win Director, but its fantasy theme is a big drawback on top of its lack of SAG Ensemble (no film since Braveheart has won the Oscar without one). Fantasy films never win here since preferential came into play. The only slight exception could be Birdman, but 2014 was a WEAK year and technically you could say the Michael Keaton comeback flick was an “actors movie”. My money is on 3 Billboards- but Get Out is lurking.
Just saw Florida Project. I have no idea why all of you love it so much. I loved Tangerine but Project does not have the same momentum or any momentum at all. Also Dafoe was fine but Rockwell has so much more to do and Im glad he’s winning over Dafoe.
I’m with you on Dafoe, I didn’t think he was special and wouldn’t even nominate him in that tough category this year, but I loved the film.
I liked both, but I definitely liked TFP more than Tangerine. I didn’t quite love either, but with TFP it was closer to that.
It was torture for me, plus the neglected kids angered me. I left before the end.
Where is the ballot?
Since I’ve not quite begun to count yet, I might as well post this once more, here and in the other major thread. I’ll be counting votes coming in over the next two hours or so, before I’m done with the preliminary processing of ballots everywhere! Thanks for voting to all, and I’ll return with the results probably later today! (It’s about 2 PM here…)
[Again, if you’ve already seen this post, just skip! We already have 20-30 votes at the other site where I’m running this simulation, and plenty here as well, obviously. This is only for those who didn’t catch it and might want to vote.]
Having finally seen Phantom Thread yesterday, I can once again invite all of those willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and help us all better understand how this year’s race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot works, in general. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all who will, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes, these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) One interesting thing I will point out about the previous years’ results (which can be checked out, in detail, at the bottom of this post), is that the movie most people consider likely to have come in second place in the Best Picture race at the Oscars has finished in exactly second place in these every single time, for the last four years in a row, so perhaps this is something to look out for this year as well… So, without further ado…
7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Please rank the Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you want each of them to win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rank them according to your own tastes and wishes instead, of course)!
I would say, ideally, a voter should have at least seen all of the following, which are the only ones I find likely to win or come close to winning this simulation – or win at the Academy Awards themselves -, based on what I’ve heard about other, similar polls taken this year, and so on: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I’ve listed them in alphabetical order, so as to minimally influence voting.) And maybe also Phantom Thread. I’m thinking this would be best because I expect even Academy voters, in this day and age, will pretty much have all seen at least the 2-3 (and, in this year’s case, maybe 4-5) movies that have the best chances of winning the Oscar in any given year, before completing their ballots. Beyond this, there are no guidelines. Vote as you like, but rank all of those first six I mentioned, please, don’t leave them off your ballot, or I might decide to not count it!
My ballot for this year (with a fairly obvious strategic placing of a certain movie, which 99% won’t help said movie at all, but also can’t hurt/alter anything significant):
1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Shape of Water
9. Call Me By Your Name
(My mother won’t be voting this year, as she just hasn’t seen enough of the nominees, and hasn’t seen The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name, of the strongest ones.)
The previous years’ results:
2011 The Social Network — details not saved
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty —– 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her —————— 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on 1st round 1st places
2015 Birdman ————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ———— 41-32 over La La Land
Since I’ve not quite begun to count yet, I might as well post this once more, here and in the other major thread. I’ll be counting votes coming in over the next two hours or so, before I’m done with the preliminary processing of ballots everywhere! Thanks for voting to all, and I’ll return with the results probably later today! (It’s about 2 PM here…)
[Again, if you’ve already seen this post, just skip! We already have 20-30 votes at the other site where I’m running this simulation, and plenty here as well, obviously. This is only for those who didn’t catch it and might want to vote.]
Having finally seen Phantom Thread yesterday, I can once again invite all of those willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and help us all better understand how this year’s race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot works, in general. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all who will, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes, these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) One interesting thing I will point out about the previous years’ results (which can be checked out, in detail, at the bottom of this post), is that the movie most people consider likely to have come in second place in the Best Picture race at the Oscars has finished in exactly second place in these every single time, for the last four years in a row, so perhaps this is something to look out for this year as well… So, without further ado…
7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Please rank the Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you want each of them to win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rank them according to your own tastes and wishes instead, of course)!
I would say, ideally, a voter should have at least seen all of the following, which are the only ones I find likely to win or come close to winning this simulation – or win at the Academy Awards themselves -, based on what I’ve heard about other, similar polls taken this year, and so on: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I’ve listed them in alphabetical order, so as to minimally influence voting.) And maybe also Phantom Thread. I’m thinking this would be best because I expect even Academy voters, in this day and age, will pretty much have all seen at least the 2-3 (and, in this year’s case, maybe 4-5) movies that have the best chances of winning the Oscar in any given year, before completing their ballots. Beyond this, there are no guidelines. Vote as you like, but rank all of those first six I mentioned, please, don’t leave them off your ballot, or I might decide to not count it!
My ballot for this year (with a fairly obvious strategic placing of a certain movie, which 99% won’t help said movie at all, but also can’t hurt/alter anything significant):
1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Shape of Water
9. Call Me By Your Name
(My mother won’t be voting this year, as she just hasn’t seen enough of the nominees, and hasn’t seen The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name, of the strongest ones.)
The previous years’ results:
2011 The Social Network — details not saved
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty —– 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her —————— 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on 1st round 1st places
2015 Birdman ————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ———— 41-32 over La La Land
Something funny I thought about earlier today: Every time Frances McDormand is up for an Oscar, there is some kind of a shocker win.
I’m not sure about 1988 but from what I’ve read, Kline and Davis were both big upsets.
In 1996 — Juliette Binoche’s big shocker.
In 2000 — Marcia Gay Harden’s big upset, making her the first actor to beat the SAG stat. You can add Soderbergh’s victory.
In 2005 — Crash winning picture.
In 2017?
Maybe Saoirse Ronan/Sally Hawkins n Laurie Metcafe/Lesley Manville will b the shocker wins?
Three out of four, the upset was in supporting actress. One can dream.
Since 2005, no actor has ever lost an Academy Award when shorter than 1.40 with bookmakers. Oldman, Rockwell, Janney and McDormand are 1.20 or, in most cases, much lower. Only once since 2005 has the favourite not won Best Actor or Best Actress (Cotillard, with Christie only marginally favourite.) Supporting Actress is the only category where the third favourite has ended up winning (Swinton) but she was very close in the odds to being second favourite. Mark Rylance and Alan Arkin are the only non-favourites to win Best Supporting since 2005. Both were second-favourites and not too far away from being favourites with the bookies.
Upsets are so, so rare in the Oscars acting categories. And, pretty much all categories, except the shorts which occasionally dish up a 10-1 winner.
The longest odds winners, in any category (other than the shorts) since 2005 have been Ex-Machina for visual effects. It was 200-1.
Statistically speaking and odds-wise, Ex Machina has to be the biggest shocker (though I wouldn’t say upset) in at least the modern era of Oscar history.
Awesome to learn all of this – thanks! Is there some site where one can check Oscar odds retroactively for all/most recent years?
Well, this would be a shocker: Get Out wins BP, OS aaaaaand BD … yes, lonnng shot, Jordan Peele.
I’ve got Peele as my runner-up to del Toro, rather than the popular assumption of Nolan. If Get Out does surprise for BP and del Toro is affected by these plagiarism accusations, I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see it happen.
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET can still pull an upset for Gary Oldman.
If Grace Kelly in Country Girl could beat Judy Garland for A Star Is Born, so can Timmy.
Juliette Binoche won BAFTA. The English Patient Best Picture.
Marcia Gay Harden – the precursors were split between Kate Hudson (BFCA, GG), Judi Dench (SAG), Julie Walters (BAFTA).
Crash won SAG ensemble.
Those were still considered shock wins. NOBODY and I mean NO- BO -DY had Juliette Binoche winning the Oscar. SHE even said in HER speech “I thought Lauren was going to win it.” It’s easy to claim someone wasn’t an upset AFTER the fact. But don’t try to front now. BAFTA before the 2000s didn’t mean as much.
Ditto for Marcia Gay Harden. She won the New York Film Critics, but otherwise had been absent. The money was on Hudson, or SAG winner Judi Dench (Chocolat).
Just to add to your point BAFTA actually took place after the Oscars back then.
Bacall’s face is a picture.
You’re missing the point. In the examples stated, NO one dominated the televised precursors. Whereas this year, all 4 acting front runners are the same with BFCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA. I am willing to bet you that there will be NO upsets in any of these categories.
Sorry for the off-topic, but aren’t the live action shorts scheduled to be available today (on iTunes and Amazon)?