This Oscar season will put the stats to the test. Many of us are, in fact, predicting wins that take down stats. For instance, in the preferential ballot era, films without crafts nominations have not won either Best Picture or Best Screenplay. But we know that Get Out has already won the WGA. Stats favor Three Billboards or Shape of Water for the Oscar for Original Screenplay but most, including myself, are predicting Get Out to win there. My theory is that Get Out could win Picture or Screenplay or both. Two out of three gets you a score unless it becomes the rarest of rare Oscar movies to win Best Picture and nothing else.
Three Billboards is a film the stats favor most, even without the Best Director nomination, on account of the BAFTA/SAG combo, which appears to be, at least for the moment, iron clad. My intuition tells me it’s Get Out because it performs best on a preferential ballot. The reason I’m not predicting The Shape of Water is that it lost the BAFTA where it led the nominations. The combo of that and the lack of the SAG stat makes me skeptical it can win. But honestly, all three are movies would love to see win. There isn’t any contender this year, even Greta Gerwig who could upset in original screenplay, that would be a tragedy.
If Three Billboards or Shape of Water wins it will knock down that horrible stat that films with leading female Oscar nominees can’t win Best Picture. Where did it come from? Why is it there?
What will be the end to this cliffhanger of Oscar? There is no way of knowing. At least we know there are no bad movies here, no truly unworthy winners (despite the internet’s insistence that Three Billboards is that – it isn’t).
The story is not yet told so the wrap up can’t be written until it is. But let’s just say that there are going to be plenty of lengthy angry shaming think pieces blanketing the web after Oscar night for one reason or another. The Academy can’t win because it can’t make everyone happy and Sunday night it will need to do just that to escape the wrath of a massive hive mind with a lot of time on its hands that eats rage for breakfast.
Let’s get on with it, shall we?
It seems really unlikely that Three Billboards will win Best Picture without also winning Screenplay. It seems unlikely that’s going to happen – and that if they like it enough for it to win Best Picture it should also win Screenplay. They have to step outside their way of thinking to reward a different film, which they might do for either Lady Bird or Get Out – which could mean both split their own vote giving Three Billboards the win. That makes the most sense in terms of those two awards. However, I do sort of feel like either Three Billboards or Get Out could win both Picture and Screenplay. So picking one for each seems the best compromise in case either one wins both.
Prediction: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri – SAG ensemble+BAFTA+Globe+Toronto
But it really might be: Get Out
I would love to see but not sure it can win: The Shape of Water
Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water should win this easily.
But watch out for: Jordan Peele for Get Out or Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Saiorse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress
Alison Janney, I Tonya
Possible upset: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get Out
But I suspect that it could be Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
And it really could be Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Baby Driver could also win.
If they really love Three Billboards, it could show up here.
Blade Runner 2049
It’s possible in a Shape sweep it could win here
Dunkirk could also win here
The Shape of Water
But it could be Blade Runner 2049
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
But I suspect Baby Driver could win one or the other.
The Shape of Water
But it really could be The Shape of Water
But it could be Last Men in Aleppo or Faces Places too
The Insult (this is a last minute switch)
It could also be A Fantastic Woman
War for the Planet of the Apes
But it really could be Blade Runner 2049 (I might swap this one out at some point)
Heaven is a Traffic Jam
But it could so easily be Heroin(e) or Edith + Eddie
Live Action Short
My Nephew Emmett which is a personal choice
Most people are going with Dekalb Elementary and that could easily win.
Most people are going with Dear Basketball
Mighty River because Mary J. Blige made history as first person to be nominated for both song and acting
But it could be Stand for Something, Remember Me, This is Me…