This Oscar season will put the stats to the test. Many of us are, in fact, predicting wins that take down stats. For instance, in the preferential ballot era, films without crafts nominations have not won either Best Picture or Best Screenplay. But we know that Get Out has already won the WGA. Stats favor Three Billboards or Shape of Water for the Oscar for Original Screenplay but most, including myself, are predicting Get Out to win there. My theory is that Get Out could win Picture or Screenplay or both. Two out of three gets you a score unless it becomes the rarest of rare Oscar movies to win Best Picture and nothing else.
Three Billboards is a film the stats favor most, even without the Best Director nomination, on account of the BAFTA/SAG combo, which appears to be, at least for the moment, iron clad. My intuition tells me it’s Get Out because it performs best on a preferential ballot. The reason I’m not predicting The Shape of Water is that it lost the BAFTA where it led the nominations. The combo of that and the lack of the SAG stat makes me skeptical it can win. But honestly, all three are movies would love to see win. There isn’t any contender this year, even Greta Gerwig who could upset in original screenplay, that would be a tragedy.
If Three Billboards or Shape of Water wins it will knock down that horrible stat that films with leading female Oscar nominees can’t win Best Picture. Where did it come from? Why is it there?
What will be the end to this cliffhanger of Oscar? There is no way of knowing. At least we know there are no bad movies here, no truly unworthy winners (despite the internet’s insistence that Three Billboards is that – it isn’t).
The story is not yet told so the wrap up can’t be written until it is. But let’s just say that there are going to be plenty of lengthy angry shaming think pieces blanketing the web after Oscar night for one reason or another. The Academy can’t win because it can’t make everyone happy and Sunday night it will need to do just that to escape the wrath of a massive hive mind with a lot of time on its hands that eats rage for breakfast.
Let’s get on with it, shall we?
Best Picture
It seems really unlikely that Three Billboards will win Best Picture without also winning Screenplay. It seems unlikely that’s going to happen – and that if they like it enough for it to win Best Picture it should also win Screenplay. They have to step outside their way of thinking to reward a different film, which they might do for either Lady Bird or Get Out – which could mean both split their own vote giving Three Billboards the win. That makes the most sense in terms of those two awards. However, I do sort of feel like either Three Billboards or Get Out could win both Picture and Screenplay. So picking one for each seems the best compromise in case either one wins both.
Prediction: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri – SAG ensemble+BAFTA+Globe+Toronto
But it really might be: Get Out
I would love to see but not sure it can win: The Shape of Water
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water should win this easily.
But watch out for: Jordan Peele for Get Out or Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Best Actor
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Possible upset: Saiorse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress
Alison Janney, I Tonya
Possible upset: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Original Screenplay
Jordan Peele, Get Out
But I suspect that it could be Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
And it really could be Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Adapted Screenplay
James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Editing
Dunkirk
Baby Driver could also win.
If they really love Three Billboards, it could show up here.
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
It’s possible in a Shape sweep it could win here
Dunkirk could also win here
Production Design
The Shape of Water
But it could be Blade Runner 2049
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Dunkirk
But I suspect Baby Driver could win one or the other.
Original Score
The Shape of Water
Costumes
Phantom Thread
But it really could be The Shape of Water
Documentary Feature
Icarus
But it could be Last Men in Aleppo or Faces Places too
Foreign Language
The Insult (this is a last minute switch)
It could also be A Fantastic Woman
Animated Feature
Coco
Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
But it really could be Blade Runner 2049 (I might swap this one out at some point)
Doc Short
Heaven is a Traffic Jam
But it could so easily be Heroin(e) or Edith + Eddie
Live Action Short
My Nephew Emmett which is a personal choice
Most people are going with Dekalb Elementary and that could easily win.
Animated Short
Garden Party
Most people are going with Dear Basketball
Song
Mighty River because Mary J. Blige made history as first person to be nominated for both song and acting
But it could be Stand for Something, Remember Me, This is Me…
The million-dollar question in the top races is how Picture and Original Screenplay are going to go. I understand many predicting Billboards, but Get Out being a favorite in Screenplay, but I can’t predict that split. I almost think the reverse outcome would make more sense given the intricacies of the preferential ballot and the plurality support for Billboards. So I’ll predict Billboards for both, a la Birdman preventing Budapest and Boyhood from winning consolation prizes. Billboards won’t win Picture without Screenplay. It’s hard to imagine Peele (or really both Peele and Gerwig) losing all his bids, but then that would mean Get Out or Shape wins Picture. I’d love for Shape to win but don’t think it has the support above-the-line, and I’m not quite comfortable predicting Get Out without an editing nomination.
X, but it could be Y. Z could win here too. Possible spoiler: W
Possible Ladybird for actress, director and screenplay gave me a chuckle. It’s dead as a doornail.
Metcalf is coming second though.
I watched a couple of contenders today – 3 billboards (for the third time) and Shape of Water (for the second). Billboards gets better and better on repeat viewings, and I wouldn’t be unhappy or surprised if it takes the acting, screenplay and picture Oscars. I’ve heard and read people compare it in quality to Crash, which I think is a gross overstatement – it’s not. And the more I watch it, the more I hate the criticism of Rockwell’s character which is about his redemption – it’s not! Shape is so deserving of anything it gets tomorrow, which I think will be Del Toro (slam dunk) and a few tech awards, which it deserves. I do hope that Peele wins, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if McDonough does. I love that this year is a bit of a nail biter!
One movie I just haven’t been able to get behind no matter how hard I’ve tried, is Lady Bird. I love the talent involved from top to bottom, but I just could never find that sweet spot that everyone seemed to be able to find. I mean, I liked it, but I’ve never been able to find passion in it – even after repeat viewings,
I can’t wait!
lady bird will win screenplay
3B will win picture and actress – very possibly sup. actor
Here’s a fun and fascinating read for your Oscar history buffs: About 3,100 Academy Awards have been given out since 1929, and nearly 80 of them have gone missing or stolen, etc. … Mother Jones profiled Olivia Rutigliano, 25, an PHd student who’s tried to track them all down. Who’s the ”mystery man” who ran off with Alice Brady’s prize? How did Whoopi Goldberg’s Oscar wind up in the garbage? Did you know that Michael Jackson bought an Academy Award?
https://www.motherjones.com/media/2018/03/the-incredible-true-story-of-the-oscar-everyone-thought-had-literally-been-stolen/
They should make a documentary about this – and win the Oscar for it! 🙂
My preference is Hawkins and Manville but I’d be happy with Ronan and Metcalfe. (No disrespect to McDormand and Janney, who were both good.)
I was wrong about this, too. 🙂 There IS a bit more stats work to be done… (And I guess there will be more after the Spirits, too, potentially.)
Of the 15 Best Picture Oscar winners to have competed at the Gold Derby Film Awards, 12 won either for Best Picture or for Best Ensemble there. The King’s Speech (which wasn’t nominated for either of those) and Million Dollar Baby won for their lead actor/actress, instead. Slumdog Millionaire is the only one that didn’t win for any of those, but it did win for its screenplay – which, of course, a lot of the others did as well. So, if we’re looking for a 100% stat (which is kind of necessary with a sample size as mediocre as this): the Best Picture Oscar winner has never, in the 15 years of Gold Derby Awards (this year being the 16th), not won for either picture, ensemble, screenplay or lead actor/actress at those.
This year, the winners in those categories were:
Call Me By Your Name (picture, screenplay and lead actor)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (ensemble and lead actress)
Get Out (screenplay)
So, no Shape of Water… Of course, some winners won director here, too, like Shape did (though it is only 5/10 that did, somewhat surprisingly), but one simply can’t formulate a 100% stat similar to this one that says Three Billboards won’t win BP, like one can for Shape, because Spotlight only won ensemble and went on to win BP, and Billboards has that win this year. And Birdman only won ensemble and lead actor, of the major categories – it also won cinematography. Also, Million Dollar Baby only won lead actress (and The King’s Speech only lead actor), as has Three Billboards. One can formulate a 100% stat that says Get Out won’t win BP, but it’s a lot shakier than for Shape, because one would have to include a minor category, original score (Slumdog Millionaire won only that and screenplay), which seems utterly random and out of tune with this stat.
I think this is the first 100% stat I’ve found based on a single group (maybe there are some critic award stats that say the same, I don’t know – I’m talking about post-critics phase) that says The Shape of Water won’t win Best Picture (as the WGA loss + 1 rule is based on at least two different groups). Like the BFCA stat that says the same thing about Lady Bird. And the also 100% Oscar stat (about being in the top 7 most nominated movies of the year) that says Get Out or Call Me By Your Name won’t win. If anyone knows of any 100% stat based on results from a single group of awards voters that says Three Billboards can’t win, I’d obviously be very interested to know about it – even after the Oscars, I’ll be just as interested. Even if it means I have to have something else winning BP rubbed in my face. 🙂
(Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying this makes Three Billboards some massive favorite. Or even slightly more of a favorite than before these were announced. Just that it’s a stat…)
Another thing I’d like to note is that all five of the most accurate experts (based on how often they’d gotten it right up to and including 2015, but at least Tom O’Neil and Thelma Adams both got Spotlight right, too, and almost nobody got Moonlight, so I don’t think the situation has changed) when it comes to Best Picture in the Big Bad Predictions Chart (as of last night – I understand that’s getting updated) were predicting Three Billboards for Best Picture. I’m talking about, in addition to the two I aleadey mentioned, Tariq Khan, Michael Musto and Glen Whipp. Brad Brevet and AD’s Most Likely also had excellent records, but I didn’t see them in the chart last night. It’s interesting that none of the five I did see is predicting Shape or Get Out… The situation was the same the Birdman and 12 Years a Slave years, even though then, too, there were a lot of people that had Boyhood/Gravity instead. Like I said before… I like our team…
So obviously Call Me By Your Name is going to win! 🙂
If you ignore all other stats from all other groups, sure! 🙂
Nice insight. I don’t think there’s any denying Three Billboards is the stats pick at this point, even though I still feel unsure predicting it.
What upsets are you predicting?
I have:
– Dunkirk for Sound Mixing, Blade Runner 2049 for Sound Editing (I may change my mind here, but it reminded of Hacksaw Ridge / Arrival)
– Shape for costumes (cause of the Production Design rule, Shape seems most likely)
– Mystery of Love for song (just a hunch, also it’s a BP nominee)
– Baby Driver for editing (not sure if that counts as an upset at this point – technically Dunkirk would be the stats upset there?)
– I had Willem Dafoe for supp actor, but changed back to Sam Rockwell
– I’m sticking with Janney for supp actress. An acting upset seems likely, but also they all feel pretty solidly locked at this point.
– Also sticking with 3B for Pic & Screenplay.
– I have a feeling Mudbound may upset in Supp screenplay, but not enough to predict it over CMBYN (BP nominee)
“What upsets are you predicting?”
Only Beauty and the Beast for costumes and the shorts (Silent Child, LOU, Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405) – I don’t think Blade Runner 2049 for effects counts as a surprise. And it still feels like I’m predicting too many upsets!… 🙂
Most of your upsets could well happen. I like them! Maybe except song, but even that might have a shot…
Here are my final winning predictions! Although it pains me not to write CMBYN down for Best Picture I’m happy to put 3 Billboards in its place.
Best Picture: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Director: The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name by James Ivory
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri by Martin McDonagh
Actor: Gary Oldman
Actress: Frances McDormand
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Animated Feature: Coco
Cinematography: Blade Runner – Roger A. Deakins
Costume Design: Phantom Thread – Mark Bridges
Documentary Feature: Icarus
Documentary Short Subject: Edith + Eddie
Editing: Baby Driver
Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Make Up and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Musical Score: The Shape of Water
Original Song: This is Me – The Greatest Showman
Production Design: The Shape of Water
Animated Short Film: LOU
Live Action Short Film: DeKalb Elementary
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
agree with these except doc, editing, s. editing, and vfx, and haven’t analyzed the shorts yet.
which do you think gets doco?
You were right, but I had Faces Places. I got 18/24, getting the short film and short film doc correct but Picture, O. Script, VFX, Short Film Animated, Song, and Doc wrong.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/razzie-awards-2018-complete-winners-list-1078488/item/worst-picture-1089544
The Emoji Movie – worst of the year at the Razzies.
Isn’t it a little sad that an animated film won the Razzie for Worst Picture BEFORE one has won the Oscar for Best Picture?
Given the great record of some terrific animated films over the years, not a single one has won Best Picture. I’m assuming some day it will.
Anyone else excited that Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway might get to do a do-over in presenting Best Picture? And Pete Hammond at Deadline.com says the Oscars might celebrate the 90th anniversary by bringing back quintets of past winners to present the acting awards.
(For the record, Hammond is predicting ”The Shape of Water” to take Best Picture. Plus, ”Icarus” for Documentary Feature and Lebanon’s ”The Insult” for Foreign Language Film.)
http://deadline.com/2018/03/warren-beatty-faye-dunaway-best-picture-oscar-notes-on-the-season-1202307732/
Like I said I hope whomever opens that Best Picture envelope announces ‘La La Land’ as a joke.
From The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy:
* Best Picture: Will win: ”The Shape of Water.” Should win: ”Call Me by Your Name”
* Best Director: Will win: Guillermo del Toro. Should win: Christopher Nolan
* Best Actor: Will win: Gary Oldman. Should win: Timothee Chalamet
* Best Actress: Will win: Frances McDormand. Should win: Saoirse Ronan.
* Best Supporting Actor: Will win: Sam Rockwell. Should win: Sam Rockwell.
* Best Supporting Actress: Will win: Allison Janney. Should win: Laurie Metcalf
Geez, I practically agree with all of their Should Wins. Here’s the rest of the list …
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/oscars-2018-who-will-win-who-should-win-1087511/item/best-picture-will-should-win-2018-1087514
Sam Rockwell should win?
I did say ”practically.” 😉 … The ones who should win, weren’t even nominated.
Another fun fact: If Three Billboards wins the four awards it’s expected to (Picture, Original Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actor), it will be the first time in eight years that a Best Picture winner has outright had the most wins (i.e. not tied).
2016: La La Land (6) vs. Moonlight (3)
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road (6), The Revenant (3) vs. Spotlight (2)
2014: Birdman (4) and The Grand Budapest Hotel (4)
2013: Gravity (7) vs. 12 Years a Slave (3)
2012: Life of Pi (4) vs. Argo (3)
2011: Hugo (5) and The Artist (5)
2010: Inception (4) and The King’s Speech (4)
2009: *The Hurt Locker (6)* vs. Avatar (3)
Something crazy could always happen, like Shape of Water or Dunkirk picking up an extra tech category, but right now, both of those are only expected to get up to three each.
Thanks to the preferential ballot and expanded field of Best Picture nominees, this is the new normal: Best Pictures with a lower number of Oscar wins. During this 8-year span, the Best Picture winners collected 30 Oscars as a group. In the 8-year span before the change, Best Picture winners collected 43 Oscars. Only one Best Picture in this group collected 3 Oscars: ”Crash.” But in the new preferential era, 3 of them won just 3: ”Moonlight,” ”12 Years a Slave” and ”Argo.” And ”Spotlight” became the first Best Picture to win only 2 Academy Awards since ”The Greatest Show on Earth” (1952).
That happened anyway, with Shape!
You are so wrong lol
I really think Laustsen’s work in TSOW was the best among the nominees. Can you all imagine how the netizens will rip Dan Laustsen apart if he wins Cinematography?
But I really want Deakins to win in a film where his work is the BEST of the year, sadly Blade Runner 2049 wasn’t as two of best weren’t even nominated: The Beguiled and Call Me By Your Name.
If Laustsen wins the Oscar, do you think he’ll really care what anyone else thinks?
As for ”Call Me by Your Name,” I think it’s got a good shot at winning Cinematography at today’s Indie Spirits, and I hope Sayombhu Mukdeeprom is there to accept it!
Final predictions:
Best Picture: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: “Remember Me,” Coco
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Documentary Feature: Faces Places
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball
Best Documentary Short: Edith+Eddie
Best Live-Action Short: Dekalb Elementary
I find it odd you say Three Billboards is unlikely to get Original Screenplay. It seems MOST likely to get Original Screenplay, especially with it being the Best Picture favorite (on top of having won the BAFTA and Golden Globe).
pretty much every single one of my predictions as of right now, except I think Get Out is winning screenplay
I still find it bizarre that some are predicting a Picture/Screenplay split. At least when it happened with The Artist, there was a reason for it, but before that, it hadn’t happened since the dreadful Million Dollar Baby won BP (not surprising at all that it wouldn’t win Screenplay). I just don’t see any reason why a split would suddenly happen now.
Actually there’s a reason for it this year, as lone writer/director’s never win both Picture AND Original Screenplay. They’ve won one or the other but never both. If you’re predicting one of them to win Screenplay, then the likely bet is not to predict it for Picture.
Just because it’s a solo writer/director? That doesn’t really seem like good enough reasoning. Breaking away from their joining of Picture + Screenplay just for that doesn’t seem very likely (i.e. I’d put more faith in the stats than something as random as the number of people who wrote/directed the movie).
I haven’t done any research in this regard, but have the stats ever pointed to a film with a solo writer/director that was highly expected to win BP and OS, but then didn’t? If so, you might have something, but with the way the stats are pointing, I still see no reason as to why BP&S would be broken up this year.
Furthermore, it’s happened for Adapted Screenplay… so why would it not happen for Original?
The closest I can think of (in terms of winning BOTH BP and OS but didn’t) is LA LA LAND last year. It was a virtual neck-and-neck race for OS between it and MBTS (both tied at Critics Choice and LA LA LAND won the Screenplay Globe), and LA LA LAND was a prohibitive favourite for BP (we all know what happened there).
Except La La Land was never really the favorite to win OS, especially after losing the BAFTA to Manchester. I know a lot of people (including me) thought it was going to win BP, but in hindsight, without that Best Cast nod and no screenplay win, it didn’t really have much of a chance (like Shape of Water this year).
This year, the stats are pointing right at Three Billboards for BP, so taking OS along with it just makes sense since they’ve shown us how important they think writing is.
You seem to think your opinion is supposed to be the berometer of the quality of a film or a screenplay. You think 3 Billborads has the best writing?lol
All your analyses were all so freaking off,lol
I think it’s just THAT close, really.
Jeff, our predictions align almost completely. The ONLY category we differ on is Original Screenplay. I have Get Out. I realize it makes little sense. But I just feel like the Academy will want to give Peele something and, its not like it doesn’t have big wins (CC, WGA). I can just hear it being read out loud. And it’s the most original script; which has fared well in the past (Eternal Sunshine, Her). That said, it absolutely can be Three Billboards. It’s probably the safer bet. I’m just going out on a little limb, there. But yeah, we agree on EVERYTHING else.
I just don’t see it happening. We haven’t had a Best Picture winner go home without Best Director AND Best Screenplay for 15 years (hasn’t happened in the age of the Preferential Ballot at all). It would be a shock to say the least.
You got most of the big one wrong
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ffd847b600c3af40a2cb6d299fcbc2f46c056b6a822c7247c1957b51cbf33d68.png
Let’s go.
If Three Billboards is such a favorite to win, why didn’t it win DGA and PGA??
It was NEVER gonna win DGA. Ever. So throw that line of thinking out.
That is not a reason, if it was nominated, and if the picture was a frontrunner, then it should have had won at least PGA or DGA.
Ok. When it wins best pic Sunday get back to me.
So you are rooting for Three Billboards
That is what I hate about the Oscar predicting, Three Billboards all of a sudden is big frontrunner all because of BAFTA who shares about 600 people with Academy out of 7000?? BAFTA has not been matching Oscar Best Pic winners and it is not preferential voting either, and somehow BAFTA is the determining factor? PGA and DGA are absolutely useless? I so hope you are so wrong on Sunday
I am getting back to you now. How does it feel?lol
“Favorite” is overstating it. Ultimately we have to pick one and so we’re looking at what is more likely to break Director nom or SAG. More precedent for breaking director than SAG. That said I think the preferential ballot will favor Shape
I hope you are right. The so called pundits think Shape can’t win because it didn’t win BAFTA where it is not preferential voting and has been wrong for the past 3 years.
To be fair… I think they are saying it is one of the smaller factors that we have to tilt the scales one way or the other since so much has them neck and neck. On election night people were debating if one electoral vote in a state that splits the votes could decide the election if Clinton were start winning the blue states she needed.
I understand why many are predicting 3 Billboard because it is an “actors” film, but their reason is BAFTA and SAG’s win, and PGA and DGA means nothing, that is just silly, no offense.
None taken. ; )
You’re the only one saying “means nothing”. You’re putting words in people’s mouths – no pundit has ever said that in the history of time…
About PGA and/or DGA, obviously.
Soft SAG support arguably was the canary in the coal mine for La La Land.
La La Land is not Water, it may not matter this year.
They don’t think Shape can’t win. They have to pick something, and they can’t all pick Shape, because the stats are split between it and 3B. It’s normal for some to pick 3B and others Shape. Did you see a single pundit say they didn’t think Shape could win? Except for maybe Sasha, but even she isn’t really saying that – just that she doesn’t think it will win. I can assure you everybody is well aware of how much Shape is still in the race, even if they don’t think it’s the favorite!
If Shape is the favorite instead, why didn’t it win SAG, WGA, ACE or BAFTA? 3B only lost three big industry awards (PGA, DGA and ACE), whereas Shape has lost four. Each has one picture win (PGA/BAFTA), so no difference there. Each has one major snub.
Wanna know how many movies have won BP after losing SAG, WGA, ACE and BAFTA?
Zero. Whereas movies that lost PGA, DGA and ACE have won before – Shakespeare in Love, Spotlight, Moonlight.
The really bizarre thing is if one of the three expected winners takes BP, they all bust major stats while simultaneously backing different ones up.
I don’t think there’s any film among the 9 that wouldn’t bust many major stats.
3B checks more of the boxes off than a lot of the contenders (script, multiple acting nods, EDITING).
Correct. But it would still be the BP winner with the most precursor-related problems in recent times.
It wasn’t eligible for WGA and basically swept SAG/BAFTA/GG
I’m arguing that the increasing number of BP/BD spilts we’ve seen since 2000 (and dig all the crazy stats that got busted THAT year) could mean that McDonough missing Director might not be the death blow people think.
Unless Peele wins screenplay that is
That’s what happens in years like this one… (Which aren’t many to begin with.)
That’s a great summation of the stats! Hard to refute them numbers.
But dammit, i’m still predicting Get Out!! And I was wrong the past two years!!!
I’ll take that compromise solution! 🙂 Just no Shape win, please!…
All of a sudden, The Shape of Water’s PGA and DGA win all mean nothing? And BAFTA is everything? I so hope all the pundits are wrong. BAFTA means more than PGA and DGA even though they have not matched Oscar winners for the past few years? That is what BAFTA wants, it wants to be relevant, and they are getting what they want from the pundits and experts, doesn’t make sense.
No but why aren’t you including the fact that it missed SAG? That is massive. If you’re gonna wonder about PGA and DGA you have to include what it’s missed and that is a HUGE miss.
So Three Bill Boards’missing DGA, PGA win, and an Oscar directing nod is not massive? Sure, Water missing SAG means it absolutely can’t win, and Water’s winning PGA, DGA mean absolutely nothing?
Yes, massive as well so when two massive things crash into each other which one will have to give?
PGA and DGA should not be overlooked. La La Land is also why pundits prematurely think Water can’t win. Many have written Water off because of BAFTA which is silly.
BAFTA announced its winners before Oscar voting even began. The Academy has a bit of a hive mind, if a film LOOKS like it has momentum it can move quickly in the final push. Flip side, if a film is seen as too much of a sure thing, then the backlash can be deadly in the final push. La La Land, Revenant, Boyhood, and Gravity were all seen as runaway frontrunners during their cycles, but all got nailed at the end by backlash (La La’s absurd nomination tally, Revenant’s gore, the belief that Boyhood and Gravity were more technical gimmick than Oscar worthy winner). The Aquaman jokes were already starting to happen about Shape before its nominations were announced, and the plagarism lawsuit wasn’t a positive. All that remains is if Three Billboards had enough time to dig itself out of the hole that absurd internet smear campaign put it into.
We can go and and on. There was backlash against The Hurt Locker and it just did not matter.
Actually there wasn’t backlash about Hurt Locker except its low Box Office (and the distributor got the blame for that). Distaste for Cameron as a person and his history with Bigelow was the story that year.
But the scandal of the producers attempting to get the voters vote for it was scandalous.
BAFTA’s announcing winners 2 days before voting began is so obvious, they are trying to be relevant and influence Oscar voting. Boyhood was not a frontrunner as it lost PGA, DGA, SAG, and won BAFTA, but nothing is supposed to hurt 3 Billboards no matter what because of BAFTA and SAG
Yeah, Boyhood was seen as the runaway frontrunner after the Globe sweep and winning LA/NY critics awards. People forget just how over the top the Linklater backlash got and quickly that year (the anonymous Oscar ballot articles that year had some truly asinine snarks about the film). Birdman expertly took advantage of a voting bloc that clearly was nervous about going THAT outside of the box.
Shape didn’t even get nominated for SAG, plus it lost the WGA, which is just as massive a loss as PGA and DGA. More so, in close races. And it lost BAFTA, of course, another bad one to lose in close races.
Billboards got a DGA nod, it was the final nomination it missed (implying that McDonough probably was sixth in the final nominations.
It missed, it missed. 3 Billboards did not win DGA and PGA. The whole notion that his not winning is expected was foolish. Somehow, nothing hurts 3 Billboards no matter what, and SAG and BAFTA are the only deciding factors for Best Picture win and Water’s win of PGA and DGA means absolutely nothing because of La La Land is really foolish
Revenant won DGA, Big Short won PGA, neither won BP that year.
And considering the sheer number of BD/BP splits we’ve had since 2000 screaming about DGA is less of a zinger than it used to be.
Did someone from Three Billboards piss in your breakfast? You seem rather agitated about this.
I was annoyed by silly pundits’ ignoring PGA and DGA, you were one of them too?
With the number of deviations from that stat the last few years, you can understand why some didn’t put much stock into otz
Which is why you just can’t use the stat to predict or what happened from previous years to make predictions because they are not always reliable.
Shape is the first BP winner without an acting or writing win in its final tally since Titanic, so people looking at SAG for clues were well within their rights to do so.
Nobody’s saying they mean nothing. Just that they mean less than SAG+BAFTA.
“BAFTA means more than PGA and DGA even though they have not matched Oscar winners for the past few years?”
How often have the PGA and DGA matched? One time more than BAFTA. And that one also won SAG. Not impressed…
I’m going insane, I just can’t decide. At some places I’m betting SoW for BP and Get Out for screenplay, and at others 3B for BP and screenplay.
After checking all the “anonymous ballots” indiewire, gold derby, scott feinberg, vulture etc have posted, I just got even more confused. I know these are small and random selections of voters, but between these voters there is as many supporters for 3B as is for SoW. I only noted that SoW slightly gets more 2 and 3 votes than 3B, but very slightly. I think both films could benefit from the preferential ballot.
And the story Vulture.com made with the new members also doesn’t enlighten anything. It is said that SoW, Get Out and 3B all have almost the same number of supporters between more recent members.
I know. I just changed four categories. This can’t end well.
I’ve been looking at rankings to get a sense of where #2 and #3 votes would go. Get Out and Call Me By Your Name voters #2 choice seems to be Shape of Water by an overwhelming degree. Which makes sense if you are into one non-traditional relationship you will be into another. The preferential ballot would seem to push SOW over the line before Three Billboards.
I’m sure you didn’t mean it that way but the fact that you’re equating being into “nontraditional relationships” in Get Out (interracial relationship) and CMBYN (gay men) to an interspecies love affair…..just doesn’t read well
It does read well, because Shape of Water too pains to show that Amphibian Man was not a beast, and was more human/e than some of the human characters.
Ouch you are right. I meant “A relationship that would not be viewed by your typical Republican family as typical.” Thanks for letting me clarify. Point being that you either root for couples that society might frown on or you don’t.
That’s what I figured you meant, but thanks for clarifying! 🙂 What are you rooting for this Sunday?
Putting a gun to my head to pick what I think should win from the credible contenders (Sorry CMBYN) then I’d say Three Billboards. But would be happy with Get Out. Shape wouldn’t tick me off but I buy the BP winner on DVD (I have everyone) and in my dotage would rather repeat watch 3 Bills vs Shape. You?
So I do love CMBYN, knowing that has no chance though, I wouldn’t mind three billboards or shape taking picture. I think looking back they’d both be extremely interesting as representative of the time were in and people’s different attitudes.
Thanks for getting this. So many people bang on about PC-ness and politics but this has been true in so many other years, even when something “light” has won (in reaction to the chaos.)
Looking back at the past 89 years, I prefer the Best Picture winners which were timeless rather than the ones stuck in a particular time. A word to describe the latter is “dated”.
Didn’t say I disagreed with that. The point being this is an exercise in current culture when these are picked not a careful academic discussion. Many presidents for example are considered better (or worse) many years after the fact. This is a discussion about what will win the Best Pic Oscar this year not what will stand the test of time. I hear ya, but I’m having a different discussion.
Get Out and CMBYN might not actually have that many 1st place ballots to distribute to begin with… Dunkirk and others might be more relevant.
Very true. I just wasn’t seeing many rankings or ballots that had Dunkirk in the top slot much less top three. But again tiny tiny tiny samples to deal with. Where do you think Dunkirk voters would go? Arguably, more traditional films which backs Shape. but I could easily argue Billboards, too.
So, in short, the answer is: I just don’t know. 🙂 Dunkirk is also a pretty manly movie (war, heroism), as is 3B (in other ways), even with a female heroine. TSOW is WAY less manly.
THAT’S a given. It is all about tea leaf reading. You emphasize stats that extrapolate what block of voters may do based on their own guild awards. I look at that PLUS what pundits who are reading the groundswell of voterrs themselves. You will recall how that worked in the last election when pundits with the exception of Nate Silver took the view that there was more going on under the surface than the stats history on its face might predict.
Yup, your method may well be better, in the end. (Though I don’t like the preferential analysis of prediction rankings, I think that’s based on very shaky logic, to say the least – I already detailed that. But I do like looking at the – best – pundits in addition to the stats. I should find a way to do that myself. It’s a bit inexact for me, but it can probably be turned into numbers – which I imagine you already have done -, with a bit of effort, and then I could easily use it as an addition to my system. Hasn’t quite felt necessary so far, but it might prove so in the future, and particularly this year. It definitely is for categories outside of BP.)
The theory, of course, is that said (hidden or not) voter tendencies should be reflected in the stats, too. I think it’s a sound theory, and it’s worked quite well for me, but I imagine there are exceptions, too. However, there are probably flaws in how much the pundits that talk to voters are aware of as well. They might miss some important tendency too – like they did with La La Land/Moonlight last year, perhaps.
Yeah, that’s why I hate these debates about what they’ll do!… 🙂 Just give me stats! No ambiguity there. (Well, usually – not so much this year.)
You mean stats like how certain states that went for Dems for four elections will likely go for the Dem in 2016? Or how the PGA winner is almost always the winner and so we can excuse justify the lack of SAG for La La Land? ; ) It was in HINDSIGHT that stats were used to explain Moonlight rather than predicting Moonlight as I recall. ; )
Something happening four (or even 5-6) years in a row is not a stat, and I don’t use those as such. I use them as potentially telling trends that could turn into stats. Nothing under a 10-year sample is a stat for me, and nothing under a 20-year sample is a strong, reliable stat. I only use strong, reliable stats for my prediction system, and only use precedents and less reliable stats to break the ties when there are no strong stats to go by. Most often it doesn’t come to that, but it does this year, of course. 🙂 I think the logic behind how I analyze precedents and compare precursors is sound, so I trust it for these unclear years, where the high-percentage, large-sample stats don’t offer up a clear favorite. And even then, it’s not stuff like “this has happened 4/4 times, so it must happen again”! If the logic doesn’t support it, that could even just be a fluke. It’s one different result away from only being a 75% stat – I use 90% as my minimum for strong stats -, and two different results away from being a 50% stat, which is basically worthless.
Although, technically, there are 100% stats, from big samples (both between 60 and 90 years), that say The Shape of Water and Get Out can’t win. So maybe I’m not basing my prediction this year so much on precedent comparison as on those…
Of course, it’s unclear what will have many ballots to distribute and what won’t…
Very true.
If 3B has the same amount of support as Get Out among recent members, doesn’t that mean it has Best Pic won? Won’t the olds be more for it?
I don’t know! Last year I thought La La Land was a perfect bait for old voters, but when you check anonymous ballots of last year at THR you see a lot of old members loved Moonlight (a drama story with heart and importance).
and in this year anonymous ballots you can see old members that doesn’t like 3B.
I will go to my grave insisting that if La La Land hadn’t received 14 nominations and the subsequent talk of beating Titanic/LOTR/Ben Hur’s 11 wins that the backlash wouldn’t have set in to the clip it did that enabled Moonlight to spring the upset.
Shape of Water has to hope that “Fish Banging Movie” isn’t the joke that took hold with ENOUGH voters in the final week.
Depends on where the #2 and #3 votes for all the other films go.
There’ve been about 25 anonymous ballots released of approx 7000 votes possible or about .3%. I wouldn’t put much stock in them.
Tom O’Neill at Gold Derby has posted seven actual Academy voters’ ballots in the top eight categories. HIGHLY unscientific, of course. But not one of the seven chose Three Billboards. Which may mean nothing at all.
Yeah, man, I noticed that at Goldderby ballots there were more support for SoW (although I’ve seen 3B getting 2 or 3 places there), and at indiewire for 3B
Academy, you are safe with any of the possible winners for this year. All are special in their own way.
But hope you have chosen the distinguished and iconic way to end the 13 year streak of women lead films and the 34 of only women lead.
Mildred Hayes and 3B. A character and a film that are not perfect and that are not neat as most of your past choices. But that are touching and surprising.
Go for it!
Picture: Get Out (Believe me, I KNOW this is a long shot.)
Director: Del Toro
Actor: Oldman (strongly wish for Chalamet)
Actress: McDormand (strongly wish for Hawkins)
Supp Actor: Rockwell
Supp Actress: Janney (strongly wish for Manville)
Original Screenplay: Get Out
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Documentary: Faces Places
Foreign: A Fantastic Woman
Animated Feature: Coco
Song: This is Me — The Greatest Showman (I just cannot believe that a song as totally dreary and undistinguished as Remember Me will win, though i know it is the frontrunner. And I’d be very happy if i were wrong and Sufjan wins this.)
Score: The Shape of Water (but I’d love to see Jonny Greenwood win for Phantom Thread. It’s not his best soundtrack, but i’d love him to win an Oscar.))
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Production Design: Shape of Water
Editing: Baby Driver
Costumes: Phantom Thread
Make Up and Hair: Darkest Hour
Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam
Animated Short: Garden Party
Live Action Short: Dekab Elementary
Again I can’t understand the 3Bills phenomenon, I think I’ve seen better straight to DVD films. Choosing one of the other four Lady Bird, Get Out, CMBYN, or Dunkirk. Plz movie gods, anything besides 3Bills plz
at this point, I’ll even accept Dunkirk over 3BB.
Goldderby has also been doing secret oscar voter ballots, and it reallly seems pretty consistent across the board that there’s support for the same 4 actors. So I really don’t expect an upset. There was one who mentioned Saoirse, one for Timothee and one for Chris Plummer. Beyond that it seems most of the people they’re polling are between Shape of Water and Three Billboards.
One unnerving thing I’ve seen is a few of them mentioning other stuff for adapted screenplay, specifically Molly’s Game. Maybe people REALLY didn’t give Call Me By Your Name the time of day? That makes me nervous.
Also, I love Sorkin, but Molly’s Game is not his strongest screenplay by any stretch.
I know these are 7 random voters, but still it’s interesting to read their thoughts. Even if half the time it’s frustrating as all hell.
Eventually people in blog land are going to realize that Call Me just didn’t land with the precursors.
It’s won every adapted screenwriting award so far.
But the film as a whole just didn’t seem to land. When Luca missed DGA/BAFTA that was the tip off.
Luca didn’t miss BAFTA. That’s one of the few organizations that actually did the right thing and nominated him (and Villeneuve).
Was it GG that missed?
Yeah he missed the GG and DGA. Made Bafta and Critic’s Choice
The failure of Call Me to consistently land in the Top Five has been the biggest surprise this Oscar year
I think part of it is definitely getting lost in the shuffle of narratives. It’s 2018 coming out of Trump’s America in 2017 the Oscars need to make a statement. Is it the year of women? Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird. Is it about racial oppresion? Peele, Get Out. Is it about fighting back/acceptance? Three Billboards/Shape of Water. None of these are bad things to represent or bad movies…(well don’t get me started on the blandness of Lady Bird and Gerwig) but besides that they’re all great.
Call Me only has LGBT going for it which doesn’t seem to be a hot button issue for the academy this year, especially after Moonlight last year and BPM not making the foreign film nominations. Just an observation though, that I think could be a potential explanation
People should be aware that there is a troll in this thread, who knows nothing about this film. (Hint: It’s not me.) Another thing people have missed is that CMBYN won Best Song from the Guild of Music Supervisors. That is a fairly large guild, I think, but I don’t know if Awards Daily reported on that win. I may have missed it. The awards were given on Feb 8th.
Adapted screenplay is a category with little competition. It missed big time with Hammer and Stulbarg.
Yes, we know that, yet that is the category the OP was discussing. Some voters think there is competition there.
Out of the seven ballots, three voted for CMBYN, two for Molly’s game, one for Mudbound, and one abstained. Even from this small pool of voters, CMBYN would still win. I wouldn’t worry.
Molly’s Game actually has the Globe nomination on its side – it’s the only one in that category that has it -, which Call Me doesn’t. (Of course, the latter has all the wins.) I do think, given that that’s stats-relevant (the last 7 years no movie has won screenplay in either category with that nomination), that it’s not completely ridiculous to consider an upset there as some sort of a minor possibility…
At the same time, all Adapted Screenplay winners all received at least one ADDITIONAL above the line nomination.
All-time, or in the last few years only? Anyway, yeah, of course, this and many other things make CMBYN a big favorite. The Globe thing is most likely irrelevant.
Actually all time. This stat has NEVER failed in the Adapted category.
Wow, very nice! Good one to remember for less clear years to come… Thanks!
In fact, there have been a few in the Original Screenplay category that won without additional above-the-line nods (the short film THE RED BALLOON, the 1972 film THE CANDIDATE and a couple of others), but ALL Adapted winners have received at least one above-the-line nod.
There have been a few in the Original that won without additional above-the-line nods (the short film THE RED BALLOON, the 1972 film THE CANDIDATE and a couple of others), but ALL Adapted winners have received at least one above-the-line nod.
So, this is very strong in both categories. Logical and very interesting… Thank you!
I don’t think many voters watched CMBYN (or Phantom Thread)
Oh I’ll be here.
Update: Les Césars have started!
La Cérémonie: https://www.mycanal.fr/diffusion-premium/ceremonie-cesar-2018/p/1479295
Red carpet and reactions: https://www.mycanal.fr/diffusion-premium/tapis-rouge-et-reactions-de-laureats-cesar-2018/p/1482781
Happy watching!
All I wish for are a few big surprises. This year has become so dull and predictable.
Not one of the acting frontrunners matches my choices (Chalamet, Hawkins, Jenkins, Manville) so i’d love to see one major upset — i.e. one in an acting category
Agree. Your choices are great. I loved Manville and PT is my favorite of the year, but my big wish is for Metcalf to pull a surprise.
I would not object to Metcalfe at all!
Peter Hammond on Deadline is predicting Water to take Best Picture. I hope he is right.
Even seeing Saoirse Ronan’s name and Laurie Metcalf’s as Possible Upsets I was like “God, make any of these two upsets happen.” They both deserve everything for what they put in their work in Gerwig’s exceptional film. In a year though full of astonishing performances, both male and female, we’re probably going to see the most predictable Oscar ceremony ever when it comes to the acting categories, which is especially disappointing.
The saddest thing is I really don’t think that all these four possible winners we all expect to see on stage (McDormand, Oldman, Rockwell and Janney) have in their performances that undeniable, “let them sweep all the awards”, Blanchett/Blue Jasmine type or Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood type quality (well, save for Oldman’s and McDormand’s work – but McDormand has already won and I’d really love a Ronan/Hawkins equally deserving upset). Especially when it comes to the supporting categories, I seriously don’t think they deserved to sweep every major precursor award all the way to an Oscar win. And of all these likely winners, Janney walking away with every award in her category and an almost certain Oscar this Sunday feels a little too much to me. I always loved her and I thought she delivered a pretty strong turn in I, Tonya (a film I LOVED anyway) but a little too two-dimensional to deserve in my mind that kind of recognition (and I don’t think it’s entirely her fault as the way her character is written offers little space for subtlety and complexity). Metcalf’s terrific, far more subtle, far more complex (even if it might simple to some), simply put far better work is one I still root for but actually watching her at the podium would come as a huge surprise. Manville, my God, I’d be over the moon if her brilliant work in Phantom Thread (the one film that deserved a sweep but alas) went on to win but I doubt it.
As for Best Picture, since Phantom Thread doesn’t stand a chance of winning, I’m rooting for the mesmerizing The Shape Of Water and I’d go with that as my prediction as well but Three Billboards winning or even Get Out wouldn’t surprise me to the least.
3B-delToro-McDormand-Oldman-Janney-Rockwell-3B-CMBYN – my feeling.
Get Out – Peele – Hawkins – Lewis – Manville – Jenkins – Get Out – CMBYN – my picks
My rank (BP nominees)
Masterpieces
1. Get Out
2. Phantom Thread
Must sees
3. Call me by your name
4. The Shape of Water
5. Lady Bird
6. The Post
Great film
7. Darkest Hour
Interesting failure
8. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
By the numbers skilled explotaition
9. Dunkirk
I’d be happy with anyone out of the top 6 winning, and would not complain that much if Darkest Hour won, either. 8&9 please, no.
So Get Out is a masterpiece and Call Me by Your Name is only a must-see? Hardly.
Based on box office tally, Call Me didn’t even qualify as a must-see
So, your feeling agrees with the stats and you’re STILL not predicting that movie to win? 🙂 Interesting…
3B is SO winning. Mostly because it does not deserve it at all, and it’s a dangerous film that cheats the audience into avoiding the consequences for its character’s actions.
We have the same top three !!
I know CMBYN didn’t make much of an emotional impact on Sasha, but I find it weird that she considers four possible winners for the Best Song category, but ignores the one which won Best Song from the Guild of Music Supervisors! (I don’t even know if that win was announced on this site, because I wasn’t here on Feb 8th.)
There are FYC ads running in the trade papers touting Sufjan Stevens’s Best Song win from the Guild of Music Supervisors. Surely some voters will have heard about it. They can hear the songs on the guild’s website.
“Mudbound’s gotta win something!”
Ron Howard voice: It won’t.
”Mystery of Love” also won Best Original Song from the Awards Circuit Community Awards and the GoldDerby Film Awards, both of which are voted on by its site’s readers. At GoldDerby, ”Mystery” also beat out the other ”Call Me” tune, ”Visions of Gideon.”
Do we know the lineup of categories yet? Could somebody post as soon as they get that info? I want to know when Original Screenplay is.
I really want BR2049 to take 3 Oscars or more. I think Cinematography/Deakins is almost a lock, I think it’ll take Visual Effects but I’m worried about Apes. So what will the other be? Crossing my fingers that Production Design or one of the Sound categories comes through.
I’d say Sound is a better bet than PD, which seems like a Shape lock
Yup – it definitely has better chances of upsetting in sound.
Most likely one of the sounds. Those sets are just so striking though.
Oh, it most definitely SHOULD be winning PD! 🙂 But they don’t care about ‘should’ at the Oscars…
Unfortunately not.
Who can illuminate me – in all of this reasoning, what does the number ’13 nominations’ for “The Shape of Water” mean? How does that fit in these predictions, where seems that Shape will win only 3 of 13 ?
How did it fit in for The Revenant with 12 (only 3 wins) or La La Land with 14 (won 6). Like those 2 TSOW will win Directing and even if it scrapes out a Picture win could still win less than half its nominations. Welcome to the Preferential Ballot era (or so it seems.)
Yup, it’s due to the Preferential Ballot. And the expanded Best Picture field, which allows the Oscars to go to more movies. I doubt we’ll ever see a Best Picture with double-digit wins again. Historic sweeps have been swept away.
There is nothing, absolutely nothing to stop any film sweep in a preferential ballot. I mean, the only category which ha preferential ballot is BP. yet “Gravity” is the only one that was even close to sweep. But of course we know why it couldn’t win BP: it wasn’t nominated for SAG and it lost every single BP and even tied PGA. Everyone knows that it was tech juggernaut and didn’t have the gravitas for a BP. Any film can win sweep in preferential but we just haven’t had a film that’s strong enough to do, not since “Slumdog Millionaire”.
It’s because the big productions that could sweep have always been iffy on the screenplay side in recent years…
It means close to nothing.
Picture: Get Out
Director: del Toro
Actor: Oldman
Actress: McDormand
Supp Actor: Rockwell
Supp Actress: Janney
Adapt Screenplay: CMBYN
Orig Screenplay: Get Out
Score: TSOW
Song: This Is Me
Cinematography: BR2049
Costume: Phantom Thread
Film Editing: Dunkirk
Makeup: Darkest Hour
Production Design: TSOW
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Visual Effects: BR2049
Animated Feature: Coco
Doc Feature: Icarus
Doc Short: Heaven Is A Traffic Jam
Foreign: Fantastic Woman
Short (Animated): Garden Party
Short (Live): DeKalb
Final predictions : I also predict I will be wrong 3 times leading to 21/24 this year 😛
Best Picture : The Shape of Water (I know I know … I dislike 3bills so much I am willing to lose prediction pool)
Best Actor : Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress : Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actor : Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actress : Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Director : The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro
Adapted Screenplay : Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory
Original Screenplay : Get Out, Jordan Peele
Animated Feature : Coco
Documentary Feature : Faces Places
Foreign Language Feature : A Fantastic Woman (Chile) { I might still switch to The Insult … holding off until Saturday }
Cinematography : Blade Runner 2049, Roger Deakins
Editing : Dunkirk, Lee Smith
Sound Mixing : Baby Driver, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
Sound Editing : Dunkirk, Alex Gibson, Richard King
Production Design : The Shape of Water
Original Score : The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Best Original Song : This Is Me from The Greatest Showman, Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Makeup and Hair : Darkest Hour
Costume Design : The Shape of Water
Visual Effects : War for the Planet of the Apes
Animated Short : Lou (Garden party is too macabre for the Academy I think :P)
Documentary Short : Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Live Action Short : DeKalb Elementary
What is it with this Insult stuff?! Why are some people suddenly considering that? Is there some new development I’m not aware of?…
The pundits predicting it are those who tend to talk to voters so possibly they are picking up an undercurrent that stats can’t catch? (Noting that this is a category tough to use stats with).
What I dont understand is the pundits predicting Icarus. What makes it so great :P. I am guessing Faces Places because it is good, and the only “not sad” doc amongst the five. So it should win a plurality vote… lets see.
Yep. Again, this was a late surge thing so I suspect it comes from people talking to voters. This has worked for me in the past (especially with these categories that lack good stats data). It’s worked for me the last 14 years so I’ma stickin’ to it. ; )
I see. Oh, well, I guess I’m getting that one wrong, too… 🙂
Which pundits are those who talk to voters the most? So I’ll at least know in the future to look out for such weird predictions by them.
What I have been able to glean it is pundits like Thompson, Tapley, O’Neil and Hammond. Tapley has a 100% over 14 years record of picking Best Director and Supporting Actress even catching the upsets. Until last year he was 100% for Foreign Language film, O’Neil has 12/14 on Actor. AD consensus (a poll of polls in my view) has 11/14 Best Picture predicts. How does that compare to SAG or PGA or BAFTA?
Sure but if I remember correctly, Hammond used the same method to predict Mustang two years ago. They don’t necessarily help in any way what so ever
But they create a stats record like the guilds do. I’d be curious to see which ‘stat” has the better BP prediction rate – Awards Daily consensus of pundits or SAG/PGA etc.
I saw all five, and I liked The Insult and A fantastic woman equally. I understand the culture behind The Insult, and it is very realistic portrayal. It is also more up the traditional academy fare. So I am guessing it might win over A fantastic woman.
A similar year was Amelie vs No Mans Land. No Mans Land won even though Amelie had 4 other nominations including Screenplay…. you never know 🙂
From Pete Hammond’s Oscar picks at Deadline.com: ”On the surface, the Cannes Film Festival Palme d’Or winner ‘The Square’ with strong international appeal would be the odds-on favorite for a victory here, but actually not too many Palme d’Or winners have repeated at the Oscars; the last was ‘Amour.’ Hungary’s ‘On Body and Soul’ and Russia’s ‘Loveless’ have their boosters, but joining ‘The Square,’ the race may come down to first-timer Lebanon for the accessible and provocative ‘The Insult,’ and Chile’s ever-so-timely transgender story ‘A Fantastic Woman.’ I am torn, but I have a hunch.” Hammond is going with ”The Insult.”
So it’s just a “gut” prediction for a lot of these guys. OK. 🙂 They could be right, for sure! I like A Fantastic Woman here, still.
Just made my final predictions for the AD contest – and switched my Best Picture-prediction from “Shape” to “Three Billboards”. Not because of the stats, but because “Shape of Water” looks more like a typical winner from the 90s to me. It´s pretty old-fashioned and I´m not sure how well it´s central love story will play with the Academy members. For me, it didn´t work, because the creature was too one-dimensional and the meaning of the whole love story seemed to be just in service for the films essential message. It lacks complexity.
I hate “Three Billboards”, but prediting has nothing to do with personal preferences – has it?
Here are my predictions:
Best Picture: Three Billboards
Director: Guillermo del Toro
Acting categories: the usual suspects
Original screenplay: Three Billboards
Adapted Screenplay: Call me by your name
Cinematography: Shape of Water
Editing: Dunkirk
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Production Design: Shape of Water
Score: Shape of Water
Song: This is me, Greatest Showman
Animated Film: Coco
Foreign Language Film: Una mujer fantástica
Sound: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Make-up: Darkest Hour
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Documentary: Icarus
Documentary short: Heaven is a traffic jam on the 405
Live Action Short: The Silent Child
Animated Short: Lou
“Acting categories: the usual suspects”
Kevin Spacey is making a comeback!
Yeah, that was my reference to one of my 90´s favourites… and I would love to see Kevin Spacey again someday, by the way.
We’re predicting the same shorts, too! 🙂 I hope we’re right!…
“”Shape of Water” looks more like a typical winner from the 90s to me. It´s pretty old-fashioned and I´m not sure how well it´s central love story will play with the Academy members. For me, it didn´t work, because the creature was too one-dimensional and the meaning of the whole love story seemed to be just in service for the films essential message. It lacks complexity.”
Solid reason! I obviously agree. Might still be complex enough for Oscar voters, but more likely it won’t be…
“I hope we’re right!”
Well, actually I hope we are wrong! I hate the frontrunners! 🙂
My wet dream Oscar winners would be Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson, Chalamet or Day-Lewis, Saoirse Ronan, Laurie Metcalf, Willem Dafoe!!
Oh common, what a mess this year is… but okay, it´s just the Oscars – they are forgotten in a few weeks, while all those beautiful losers will stay with us! 😉
🙂 I get that… Of course, I’d still rather be right, as I’ve said elsewhere, because great movies/actors/directors/writers/etc. are just as great without Oscar wins as they are with them, to me.
My ideal winners of the nominees would be Get Out, Nolan (to give both of those, my #1 and #2, something), McDormand, Kaluuya, Metcalf, Rockwell, Get Out and The Disaster Artist. I might get three of those, with a bit of luck, and two I’m getting almost for sure, so I’m going to be less pissed than you, in any case. 🙂
To be true, I´m usually totally relaxed about the Oscars. They rarely ever match my own preferences, but still it would be nice to see some of my favourites honored… 😉
🙂 I’m relaxed about what wins too, in a vacuum, but the stats needing to hold make it less relaxing for me in most categories… But maybe more fun, at the same time! Probably…
I completely agree with the reasoning that Best Picture usually will go with Best Original Screenplay so I am going with 3B for both. The Academy can always say that Jordan Peele has his whole career ahead of himself and that despite the fact that he wrote and directed a brilliant first feature, the nomination is good and not winning will not be the end of the world. But will see.
Also, love that switch to Garden Party. I’ve seen the shorts and Garden Party is the one I keep going back to. Dear Basketball was a vanity project and people are seeing through that. Negative Space is too subtle for its own good. And Garden Party has a shocking conclusion (which makes sense if you watch it) but just the animation and the curiosity of the story makes it a winner for me too.
I think it’s Three Billboards going home with Picture, Actress, and Supp Actor. The one big question I still have is whether they’ll give Get Out original screenplay or if that will also go to Three Billboards. I could see Get Out taking screenplay and still Three Billboards taking picture. Shape of Water doesn’t seem as hot in rankings with people and the Three Billboards backlash was definitely overblown, and voters know GDT will still be rewarded as director, so maybe there just isn’t urgency to vote for it in picture?
That said I wouldn’t be shocked to see Get Out go home empty handed with Three Billboards also nabbing screenplay. Once original screenplay is over, if Three Billboards takes it, I think we know it’s taking picture
“I could see Get Out taking screenplay and still Three Billboards taking picture.”
Same.
“Once original screenplay is over, if Three Billboards takes it, I think we know it’s taking picture”
It probably means Get Out won’t win, because if it can’t at least win screenplay… But Shape could still easily win even if 3B gets screenplay. (Though it’s more likely to do so if Get Out does.)
You think that Three Billboards will get Actress, Supp Actor, Screenplay and still lose? I feel like if it has enough support to take screenplay the “divisiveness” won’t be enough to stop it, even on a preferential ballot
One could argue, though, that the film would have won those three categories on plurality ballots and that the screenplay win would only prove that it would win on a plurality ballot but wouldn’t take away the problems the film could face on a preferential ballot
I mean more that screenplay would show overall fondness for the film though. Obviously I don’t think people who even hate Three Billboards would say Frances or Sam are bad in it. The screenplay love I think shows something stronger..more love for the overall package
I don’t think it’s very likely, of course, but I do think it’s possible, yes. Because BP is voted on differently, and divisiveness can clearly be enough to stop it there, even if they love it enough to give it all three of those. Not to mention that its winning screenplay (the only one where it’s not locked) could just mean an anti-Get Out vote, instead of actual support for 3B, and then Shape wins BP, perhaps even easily.
I really don’t get why so many people are predicting 3B for BP and Get Out for Screenplay. If anything I would think that the preferential ballot would favor Get Out in picture and the regular ballot would favor 3B in screenplay. Add to that the fact that 3B is the talkier and more dialogue driven movie and that they may want to make it up to McDonagh for the director snub it practically seems like a lock.
I think in Best Dircetor you must more watch for Nolan than Peele or Gerwig.
Nah, I’ve also got Peele as my spoiler to del Toro, not Nolan. Dunkirk just has absolutely no momentum this season for some reason, and the Academy has never liked Nolan.
I’m honestly shocked Dunkirk never caught on, especially with the old guard of the Academy. It’s legitimately made for them, potentially why I also find it the least interesting Nolan film in years.
I think I read somewhere it was harder for them to watch as it isn’t as linear as most traditional films.
Exactly. My dad couldn’t follow the storylines. It was a traditional war film told in an ultramodern style, so may have alienated both traditionalists as well as the cool kids. Shame.
If they do not like him, they would not nominated him. Nolan is widley respected in the Academy. Of Course it has not the momentum. But many know what a great achievment Dunkirk in directing is. Most of them who will not vote for del Toro will vote for Nolan. Peele has very good chances for screenplay. This is his category.
Beside del Toro Nolan was nominated on almost all awards this year in this category.
“Most of them who will not vote for del Toro will vote for Nolan.”
That’s exactly where you’re wrong, and exactly the reason why Peele is the runner-up and not Nolan. All the people who would vote for Nolan are voting for del Toro instead. Those two are sharing the vote of technically-inclined members, to Nolan’s detriment. The voters who aren’t voting for del Toro probably aren’t the kind of voters who would vote for Nolan anyway; they’re probably the more indie/auteur-minded voters who are casting ballots for the Gerwig/Peele camp — likely the latter, given Get Out’s current momentum.
However in the sum it will be more voters for Nolan. Because also Gerwig and Peele will be splitted. And many go for Peele more in Screenplay because the chances are better.
Finally it doesn’t matter, because del Toro will win, even tough imo Nolan deserved it a little bit more. But I’m also happy with del Toro. He and Nolan have made the best directing achievement in 2017.
[Hmmm, I guess I am posting this again, after all… 🙂 Definitely last time now, though!]
All of these are 90% stats-based, with the exception of the shorts (though there’s some stats work that went into those as well, as usual) and the categories I indicate in brackets.
Final official predictions for all Oscar categories:
Picture – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Director – Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Actor – Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Actress – Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Supporting Actress – Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Original Screenplay – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Adapted Screenplay – Call Me By Your Name
Foreign Language Film – Una mujer fantastica (Somewhat anti-stats, but very marginally. I can’t see The Square winning, but one never knows… I’m not predicting it, that’s for sure!)
Animated Feature – Coco
Documentary Feature – Visages villages
Film Editing – Dunkirk
Cinematography – Blade Runner 2049
Production Design – The Shape of Water
Costume Design – Beauty and the Beast (Probably going too far out on a limb here, but I don’t care. It’s the only one where I feel like I’m potentially doing something truly silly, but there it is – I won’t get 24/24, or anywhere near that, no matter what, so what’s one more category gotten wrong?! Not a big deal… And I like this prediction enough to risk it. The stats here are actually not clear between it and Phantom Thread, despite the fact that the latter won every major precursor that matters. Hal Jordan knows what I’m talking about. We’re probably both going to be wrong.)
Makeup and Hairstyling – Darkest Hour
Sound Editing – Dunkirk
Sound Mixing – Dunkirk
Original Score – The Shape of Water
Original Song – “Remember Me” (Coco)
Visual Effects – Blade Runner 2049
Live Action Short – The Silent Child
Animated Short – LOU
Documentary Short – Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
As usual, my prediction contest entries will sometimes vary from this template in certain, closer categories, though, this particular year, this list is also identical to my entry for the Awards Daily contest. Probably the first time I’ve done that.
I am not 100% on BP (leaning Shape), Song (leaning Remember Me) or Visual Effects (leaning Blade Runner) yet, yet but we agree everywhere except Doc Feature (Icarus), Costume (although gut agrees with you) and we disagree on all three shorts. I’m going with the choices of people who have the best history of picking the winners for lack of any great stats. Heroin(e), Basketball and Dekalb.
All three of those could easily be the shorts winners. 🙂 I’m not as confident in my shorts predictions as in other years. I’m never too confident, of course, but I’m even less confident this year. I’m going out on some slight limbs, more than usual… And, of course, Icarus could win – I’d love that, it’s my favorite. But my pick is just so much more in keeping with what they usually award these days… It also has the slightly stronger stats on its side, compared to Icarus.
Why are you leaning Shape for BP? Just curious.
Preferential ballot. As noted elsewhere when I look at pundits, anonymous Oscar voters, people posting here (All of which I grant isn’t scientific) it seems that CMBYN, Get Out and others rank SOW second or third while hardly any list Billboards. If Three Billboards doesn’t win outright in the first round then it just seems that the votes of others will go to Shape. While Get Out may be popular 2nd and 3rd choice I don’t see it getting that far before Shape crosses the finish line. Assuming I understand the mechanics of the voting properly which is possible I don’t. Stats tells me/you 3 Billboards but because it seems so close I look to the next step to see where the other votes go. We shall see and I may ultimately pick Billboards to be “safe”
Are there anonymous Oscar voters that have ranked the nominees? I don’t remember seeing any. (I probably have seen only half of those articles, though, if that.) The rest is the internet bubble – or predictions, instead of preference, when it comes to the pundits -, so it could be really misleading, in a year with such a clear disconnect between that and the industry. I wouldn’t use it at all. Could lead to the right result, but I don’t know if it can even then lay claim to have done so by anything other than accident…
Anyway, like I said, Shape is a very valid prediction, nonetheless. I don’t really agree that it’ll benefit from the preferential setting more than 3B, but it’s still possible, of course. And it does have a lot of strong stats arguments on its side as well, not just working against it. And, yeah, there’s most likely no actually “safe” pick for BP this year… 🙂 Some are safer than others, of course. But nothing is truly safe or even close to it.
Claude really is the biggest cherry picker of them all.
Shape won the ONLY major BP preferential vote- the PGA. So yes, there is a STAT, you know the things you like so much, a major STAT that says Shape benefited from an actual, large preferential vote.
I’m still backing 3Bs cos I’m not going against the SAG stat, but I think it’s extraordinary this year how many have consistently ignored or downplayed Shape’s PGA win, a huge preferential ballot win.
Right now we have seven differences: animated short (Garden Party), live action short (DeKalb), Original Song (This is Me), Costume (Phantom Thread), picture, screenplay, and editing. I still may change best pic if Get Out doesn’t win Indie Spirits…
ETA: I just changed four categories—best picture to Three Billboards, animated short to Dear Basketball, Editing to Dunkirk, Doc to Icarus.
Wow, that’s a lot of differences! So you’re in the Baby Driver camp on editing – hmmm… I don’t know, I really think you should be predicting it for one or both sounds then, too!… You know the stat I’m talking about. I don’t see this being another Girl with the Dragon Tattoo situation, I really don’t. As much as I don’t like to recommend people switch on account of me, this one I feel fairly strongly about. (Funnily enough, I too have the Baby Driver – Dunkirk – Dunkirk scenario in one of my contests, but that’s only because I wanted to have Baby Driver in that category in at least one of them, but I, at the same time, thought Dunkirk was too much of a favorite for the sounds, stats-wise, so I didn’t want to just miss all three due to my desire to have all bases covered for editing… So I’m going for the likely 1/3 or 2/3 there, with only a marginal shot at a really weird 3/3, because it’s a contest where the first place prize and all the other prizes are about the same, so there’s no point going too hard for 100%.)
I have Dunkirk now for editing.
Too many people are changing to what I’m predicting in this or that category… This is starting to make me nervous! 🙁 (At least most others are also predicting those things, so the heat shouldn’t all be on me if they lose.)
I am wondering about whether or not to change back to Garden Party. I might
That’s the shorts category I’m almost sure I’m going to get wrong, so I’m not going to even try to give you any advice! 🙂 The other two shorts categories I think I have better chances of getting right, but I’d not be even remotely surprised if I went 0/3 this year. I’ve never gotten fewer than 1/3, but I can see it happening here. I don’t agree with any of the consensus choices, yet all seem very, very possible and are my alternates.
I picked Girl with the Dragon Tattoo that year for editing! Felt like a champion! haha 😉
That’s awesome! I’d have been very proud of that too, had I done it… It did win the Critics Choice, so there was an avenue for predicting it, but it was definitely not the stats favorite, so it’s a great, great pick.
Yeah, if Get Out doesn’t win the Spirits, that should be pretty telling… Though, given how disconnected the various groups have been this year, we can’t even be sure of that. 🙂
As for DeKalb, I have a strong feeling you’re the one who’s right on that one. Too many people are predicting it, and it makes a lot of sense. It is what it is. 🙂 Can’t get them all right! Garden Party I feel more confident won’t win, so I’m less scared in that category (which I’ll probably still get wrong with my official prediction when Dear Basketball wins) but, of course, it still easily could.
I decided to go with Blade Runner 2049 for Visual effects! 🙂
It really does seem like the smartest choice. Of course, this is one category where if the alternative wins, and not my prediction, I’ll still be rather happy, as War for the Planet of the Apes is easily in my top 3 movies of the year.
“Three Billboards is a film the stats favor most, even without the Best Director nomination, on account of the BAFTA/SAG combo, which appears to be, at least for the moment, iron clad.”
Again, this “stat” isn’t really a stat if you dig just a little beneath the surface. I wouldn’t bring it up if it didn’t seem to be THE stat that Sasha was hanging her entire prediction on. But the only reason the BAFTA/SAG combo appears to be an “ironclad” stat is because it usually comes in a sweep year, when the frontrunner wins everything, including the PGA, DGA, and WGA (unless ineligible for the latter), years like Argo and The King’s Speech and Slumdog Millionaire, etc. There’s very little proof that a SAG/BAFTA combo *on its own* — separate from a complete and total sweep of the industry — is anything close to an “ironclad” guarantee of BP success. That doesn’t mean it’s NOT, Sasha could very well still be right… it just means that there’s not really any statistical evidence to back up the claim.
Since ‘99, a SAG or BAFTA picture winner has won Oscar Best Picture all but 4 times. Also as we know from Braveheart, every Oscar winner has had a SAG Ensemble nom. Very tough for “Shape”. Perhaps not for “Get Out” but actors have yet to show ANY love for “Get Out”. Actors also vote in every Oscar category, throwing into debate Orig Screenplay. I predict 3 Billboards overperforms at Oscars as it had at Globes, Bafta, SAG. Get Out has never overperformed and Shape has underperformed with SAG, Bafta – ie. ACTORS.
A stat with four exceptions in less than 20 years is far from what anyone would call “ironclad.” That’s more than a 20% failure rate.
How about this: in all cases except two since 2000 (where it’s unclear whether this is the case but I’d imagine it’s the case in at least one of the two cases), if the BAFTA winner lost best picture, the Oscar winner fared better at SAG ensemble than the BAFTA winner
I’m not sure how that applies here, since the same movie won both.
That would in this case refer to the idea that there is no film that did better at SAG ensemble than the BAFTA winner and thus the stat can’t be used, meaning that there are no other films that can win best picture, if one were to only be looking at this stat.
I am confused! Can you be more clear, please?
The idea is that whatever wins BAFTA is the starting point. But if there were to be a film that beat the BAFTA winner, it would have to do better than the BAFTA winner at SAG (win ensemble or get nominated when the BAFTA winner didn’t).
Thus Three Billboards would be the starting point this year. And if we were to look at what could beat Three Billboards, we’d have to search for something that did better than Three Billboards at SAG. But since there is no such film, as Three Billboards won SAG as well, Three Billboards losing would break the stat.
This is not a stat that I don’t think is actually anything meaningful on its own but if we’re purely looking at the SAG-BAFTA connection, this spin on it has the least exceptions since 2000 and even those aren’t necessarily exceptions but instead undecided cases.
All any is really looking at is the SAG stat. There really isn’t a BAFTA stat as such, except in terms of nomination, and I didn’t expect there to be one eirher.
Okay, by the same token, a BFCA , DGA and PGA winner has failed to win BP 3 times. And that LLL last year, “Brokeback Mountain” and SPR. Although, two of those also won BAFTA and GG. It’s not that great because if you put the guilds with any other major precursor, you are likely to get similar stats. It’s good but it’s not that certain.
I agree with you on this one.
But aside from PGA (and WGA, which 3B wasn’t eligible for) this basically is a sweep year.
3B also lost DGA, got a major snub in Directing at the Oscars+lost every Directing award, snubbed at NBR top 10, snubbed at Indie Spirits, lost the BFCA, and basically got zero critics’ support. This is not what a sweep year looks like.
There are 6/7 SAG BAFTA winners and FIVE of those have won the triple crown. SIL, won SAG and BAFTA but also won WGA too. They were all much stronger in the guilds than Three Bullshit.
A WGA win vs. WGA ineligibility and probable WGA win is not much stronger. There’s no evidence it’s stronger at all. Now, SiL might have had some tech guild wins, but those don’t matter one bit for BP, especially in the preferential era, which is very easy to prove.
“I wouldn’t bring it up if it didn’t seem to be THE stat that Sasha was hanging her entire prediction on.”
Yes, of course. It’s weird – she’s aware it’s a stat with major sample size issues, but I guess she still sees it as telling. Which I don’t completely disagree with – but, of course, you can’t use it as your main argument. It’s just not a real stat. She does stuff like this, though. She sees it as a powerful argument, which it may well be, and I think that’s how she should present it, not as a stat.
The actual stats that make 3B the favorite (though in no way a lock, or anywhere near it) are:
– no movie has ever won without being in the top 7 for nominations, 1927 to today. Which is the stat Get Out and Call Me By Your Name are facing. The main stat. They also have many other big stats issues, of course.
– no movie has ever won after losing the WGA and having at least one major industry (Oscar or guild) snub for picture (as in PGA), directing (DGA+Oscar), editing (ACE+Oscar) or ensemble (SAG), 1949 to today. Which is the stat that says The Shape of Water shouldn’t win. (It, too, also has other stats issues besides this, though obviously a lot fewer than Get Out and Call Me By Your Name.) There is no such stat that says Three Billboards can’t win. At least I haven’t found it yet… The directing stat has exceptions. Plural. These two don’t.
But the SAG/BAFTA for 3B is a critical stat – that can’t be ignored, especially when it is the only film to have that this year. I would say the same thing if CMBYM had that.
I hoping for Shape of Water but I won’t be disappointed if Get out or Three Billboards win Best Picture. I want Get Out to win Best Original Screenplay.
I feel the exact same way.
I certainly won’t be disappointed if Get Out wins BP, I prefer it as a film over the TSOW anyway, I think I want TSOW to win a bit more because it finally breaks that male lead wins BP trends. 3B on the other hand… I would be disappointed if it wins
Psst. Sasha… You are missing Makeup/Hair…
I think the usual suspects will win the major prizes, but my gut still tells me that Shape misses Best Picture.
Shape is winning Director and a couple of technicals (Production Design, Score, probably) and that’s it.
I just wish someone could produce some proof that Get Out is actually surging to the level the bloggers insist is occurring. I’d be thrilled if it won, but I can’t see how it leaps over 3B.
“I can’t see how it leaps over 3B.”
Preferential ballot.
For all we hear how “divisive” 3B is, it basically ran the table at SAG/BAFTA/GLOBES save for McDonough in Director. I see how the preferential ballot will hurt Shape, but how is 3B hurt by it based on the precursor tracking so far?
“it basically ran the table at SAG/BAFTA/GLOBES”
Were any of those decided on a preferential ballot?
PGA was preferential, which means Shape has it in the bag then?
Not in the bag, but a more proven track record with the preferential ballot, yes.
Yet the PGA stat didn’t bring La La home last year, now did it
Nope. Neither did BAFTA.
I’m assuming that you think Shape has it in the bag.
I’m predicting Get Out.
Guess we’ll find out after Original Screenplay then
if three billboards takes that, it’s taking picture, if get out takes screenplay it could go to any of the three arguably stilll
BOS is by far the most heart-stopping award of the night, even more so than BP. I’m in the camp that believes 3B and Get out can’t win BP without taking that screenplay first, however, Shape can win without screenplay.
La-La-Land didn’t have the SAG ensemble nod. Get Out doesn’t have the BAFTA nod. 3B has both – very difficult to beat that.
And Three Billboards doesn’t have the BD stat. We can round and round all day but they are all missing a major stat.
You mean like Argo – who had the support of SAG and BAFTA.
how many of those precursors had preferential ballot? Exactly. Oscar Best Picture is a different animal than SAG, BAFTA or Globes.
Get Out fits the Moonlight profile quite closely which is why people suspect it could sneak in.
Moonlight had eight nominations including two acting (1 acting win). I can sort of see a similar profile, but Get Out just isn’t in as strong a position
“I just wish someone could produce some proof that Get Out is actually surging to the level the bloggers insist is occurring.”
Same. Its absence probably speaks volumes.
It might be, Peele has been working the campaign trail HARD especially since DGA.
Of course, it’s still possible. But I feel like there should be a lot more signs out there that it’s a thing…
I can see it leaping over 3B, because it’s the IMPORTANT film and the one where more consensus seems to be and less hate is aimed to. 3B is more divisive, which is why on a preferential ballot, it seems far from locked up, despite what stats may suggest. Having said so, I still think 3B is winning 3-5 awards, it could be winning Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing. Even if I don’t think it deserves any of them, not even by chance.
PROOF that 3B is divisive with the actual voters and not pissed off bloggers and Twitter addicts is what again?
“PROOF that 3B is divisive with the actual voters”
No Best Director nomination.
That’s not proof that it’s divisive. Just that it’s not a great directorial achievement (which still was so beloved it somehow managed to not miss any other major directing nods, after missing a lot with critics).
Argo won without a director’s nod and under the preferential ballot. And like 3B, it won both the SAG and BATA.
And unlike 3B, it won PGA, DGA, WGA, Cinema Editors Guild and Critics’ Choice.
But it won literally EVERY precursor that year, which helped compensate for its director snub. Three Billboards does not have that same precursor strength. And I’m sorry, but Martin McDonagh is no Ben Affleck.
Ben Affleck isn’t even Ben Affleck. The Argo campaign’s “Affleck is an unfairly snubbed auteur who must be avenged” angle was one of the most cynical ones I’ve ever seen in Oscar campaigning.
I think people were just pleasantly surprised that Affleck could even make a halfway decent movie. The bar was definitely lowered for him more than for pretty much anyone else in Oscar history. Ah, privilege…
Gone Baby Gone was the better film. And good lord, that moronic runway chase sequence at the end should have cost the film nominations and not just wins.
“that moronic runway chase sequence at the end should have cost the film nominations and not just wins.”
This.
Also all the times they said Argo Fuck yourself in the film it wasn’t funny the first time.
Exactly…
I know he is a better director then actor but that’s not saying much. He already won a Oscar before. His last movie that he directed tanked at the box office. The only thing I liked him in was Gone Girl was so glad of what happened to him in that film.
“which helped compensate for its director snub”
You mean it helped give us enough clues that it would win in spite of it… Because I very much doubt voters went “let’s see, Argo doesn’t have the directing nomination… so maybe I shouldn’t vote for it… but how much did it win to make up for that… yeah, looks like it won enough – OK, I’ll vote for it!” 🙂
The fact that we don’t have quite as much proof 3B will win in spite of it doesn’t mean the proof we have isn’t enough. Its record was enough for Shakespeare in Love (no directing snub, but no SAG snub for SPR, either). It’s less clear than it was for Argo that it will win, obviously, precisely because the others haven’t lost in as many places as that one’s opposition did, but that in no way means it can’t win just as well. Maybe not by the same margin, but it’ll still be just as much of a win, since they don’t release the counts.
“Martin McDonagh is no Ben Affleck.”
yes, to his credit
3B missing Director is easier to overcome than TSOW missing SAG and GO missing BAFTA.
Argo also won PGA, DGA, WGA and BFCA, non of which 3B won.
3B wasn’t qualify for WGA. BFCA is not AMPAS voters. In recent years, the PGA winner has not gone on to win the Oscar.
Yet is ran the boards at SAG and is heavily favored to win screenplay
The proof, if any, will come Sunday. I changed to 3B though.
Can anyone here who has seen Shape of Water even recall what’s it’s score sounds like. I can say that about most of the scores these days. Music has been out forever it’s hard to come out and write a original melody that hasn’t been done before that stands out.
I find it difficult to believe that Lady Bird after basically whiffing EVERY precursor after the Globes is suddenly going leap over three films in the final week.
I’ll be livid if Dear Basketball wins for animated short.
The Insult is a good film. I loved the parts when they weren’t in the courtroom. But A Fantastic Woman is much better and with Vega presenting it just has to win.
“Dear Basketball” is easily the least of the animated shorts. I thought “Garden Party” was really cool, but it’s hard to bet against Pixar.
“it’s hard to bet against Pixar.”
No it’s not. They have 14 nominations and only four wins in the category. Until they won for Piper last year, Pixar hadn’t won in the category since ‘For The Birds’ in 2000. That’s eight losses in a row. I don’t think they’ll suddenly win in two consecutive years for a short that pretty much nobody thinks is the best of the nominees just because they’re Pixar.
If it weren’t for Revolting Rhymes, which I like a bit more, I’d think it was the best of the nominees. 🙂
This is so true. For years it baffled me that people who should know better just blindly predict the Pixar shorts. Piper winning last year does sort of cut down on my smugness about this, but still.
I’m still livid that ”In a Heartbeat” didn’t get nominated. It’s won many prizes and is a viral hit (with 34 million views on YouTube), but the Academy couldn’t recognize it?
I agree that In a Heartbeat should have been nominated but the greatest crime in this category this year is obvious: Don Hertzfeldt’s masterful World of Tomorrow: Episode 2: The Burden of Other People’s Thoughts didn’t even get shortlisted, even though it’s actively better than at least half of the best picture lineup
About live action short, I quickly tried to find some unifying thing about the recent winners in this category like the 40 minute rule in doc short, and I came up with the following:
Each of the previous 11 winners has either been a love story or a film about friendship
American dramas rarely win this category
That would refer very strongly against films like DeKalb Elementary and My Nephew Emmett
I absolutely loved Stutterer and Sing … perfect winners.
It feels like The Silent Child will win. I’ll be happy with anyone besides My Nephew Emmett which I thought was just ok.
“The Silent Child” was probably my favorite, but did anyone else feel like the sound mixing was way off? Maybe it was intentional, but didn’t seem so.
I thought all the live action ones were very well made, but the Australian one was just too manic for me.
The shorts categories had long been a mystery to me until I read a revelatory piece of advice last year: instead of trying to predict what the Academy will go for, just predict the ones you would have voted for. Well, it worked out for me last year — I went 3/3 on the shorts for the first time — so I’m trying it again this year. I obviously don’t expect it to work every time, but that’s why I’m predicting: Garden Party, Heaven Is A Traffic Jam On The 405, and DeKalb Elementary.
OMG same here! I thought Stutterer, Bear Story and Sing had no chances the past two years but I thought they were the best and they ended up winning.
You thought Bear Story was better than World Of Tomorrow?? That is one instance in which this new method of predicting would have failed me utterly.
I did like it more. World of Tomorrow was 2nd though.
I also thought Stutterer was the best. I thought Sing would be their favorite, though, and that’s why I picked it, but I liked Ennemis interieurs more, myself. So I don’t always go with what I like the most. I don’t remember how much I liked or didn’t like Bear Story. I think I liked it, but I’m not sure. I don’t know if it was my favorite of the nominees.
I try not to purely do that since I believe that there are certain rules for these categories (for example I can’t see Edith+Eddie winning because of the length of the film) but preferences are about 90% of getting these categories right and at the very least one shouldn’t base one’s predictions on what others are predicting. Gold Derby is famous for their preference towards the early part of the alphabet and everyone just seems to take notes from them.
I’m currently predicting two of the three you are: Garden Party and Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, and those are my personal preferences as well. As for live action short, I’m still undecided because I haven’t seen any of them yet but I think I’ve narrowed it down to three based on what I’ve read: Watu wote, DeKalb Elementary and The Silent Child. The Eleven O’Clock reminds me of The Voorman Problem and since that didn’t win, I can’t predict The Eleven O’Clock either. And My Nephew Emmett is something that hardly anyone is excited about so I can’t predict that either
Yes, unusually for me, I, too, use that rule a lot more here than in other categories. When I actually get to see them, of course. I didn’t like Garden Party (and I don’t think Academy voters will either, anyway – I’m probably wrong), so I’m not predicting it. 🙂 For example. And, of course, I loved Heaven Is a Traffic Jam, and I’ve seen that everybody does, so I’m predicting that… (The ones I’m predicting also happen fit the few stats there are, so that’s good too.)
To expand upon this: I think it is not solely about the themes of love or friendship, but that those stories most easily give audiences central characters to form an emotional connection to. And ultimately feel GOOD walking away from the film. That emotional connection and uplift is the key I think. So this year, I would say The Eleven O’Clock, DeKalb Elementary, and Silent Child are positioned best. You really get to connect with those characters.
“That emotional connection and uplift is the key I think.”
Definitely! Always thought that about the shorts myself, too…
Very cool! Good news for my Silent Child prediction? (Is that a story about friendship?)
At least the teacher-student stuff which I don’t know how much there is in the film might make it a film about connection, which is perhaps a better way of phrasing that idea that I was trying to say
Yeah, I was thinking that was the part of it you thought (maybe) applied to it. Hope it does! 🙂
I originally posted this in the Big Predictions Chart thread, but it probably makes more sense here…
I am really struggling with Cinematography. The last five years the film that won Best Director also won Best Cinematography; and Deakins has won BAFTA and ASC before, and still gone home empty-handed on Oscar night. As much as I want Deakins to win, I have a feeling Laustsen will take home the Oscar for Shape of Water.
Picture, Cinematography, Song , and VFX are the four categories I feel the least confident about. Doc Feature and Foreign Language are also tough, I could see both of those going any number of directions. And the shorts are all three-horse races.
Picture… either Shape of Water or Get Out
Cinematography… either Deakins or Laustsen
Song… either Remember Me or This Is Me
VFX… either Blade Runner 2049 or War For The Planet of The Apes
Documentary… Faces Places or Icarus or Strong Island
Foreign… The Square or The Insult or A Fantastic Woman
Animated Short… Dear Basketball or Lou or Garden Party
Live Action Short… The Eleven O’Clock or DeKalb Elementary or The Silent Child
Doc Short… Heaven Is a Traffic Jam or Heroin(e) or Edith & Eddie
These are the question marks; I am set on everything else.
“The last five years the film that won Best Director also won Best Cinematography”
But that same combo only happened once in the 11 years before this five-year streak… so I don’t see how this is such a concerning argument. It was even 0/3 for preferential years, when they began, if you think that matters in any way. This trend seems pretty weak to me, at best.
“and Deakins has won BAFTA and ASC before, and still gone home empty-handed on Oscar night.”
He didn’t win the BFCA too, those times – it didn’t have a cinematography category yet. Could be that extra bit of proof needed to conclude this time he’s winning. I’m predicting him, anyway – but, of course, he doesn’t feel locked. Dunkirk or TSOW could win instead.
I know the consensus is builded around Deakins, but I am having a really hard time picturing it winning.
I think there is a lot of voters that know that he lensed BR2049, but I think the majority don’t, and the cinematographers’ names do not appear on the ballots, and BR2049 wasn’t very popular within the academy, I imagine a bunch of voters haven’t even seen it.
Was it really getting 5 nods without being at least somewhat popular, though?! I doubt it. Also, BFCA+BAFTA+ASC is a combo that has never lost. Seems a bit much betting against that, whether voters know it’s Deakins or not. Could work out that he doesn’t win, but I don’t think it’s wise to expect it…
yeah, statswise Deakins is the most logic choice.
I predict that fans of Get Out, Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name will be greatly disappointed when their gut feelings about these films upsetting won’t happen. Repeat of BAFTA.
Anybody should be disappointed when the films they think are the best don’t win. However, I think most people are open to the reality that either Billboards or Shape will triumph.
Having said that, I think the preferential ballot should always be factored in. Especially after the last couple of winners, and in a year where no film has picked up ALL the necessary stats.
If Billboards wins, it’s easy to say it was going to all along. But if it doesn’t…
I’m not going to even remotely miss the histrionics of the Call Me/Chalamet boosters.
I don’t get why nobody is predicting Greenwood (‘Phantom Thread’) in Original Score. That’s seems to me like a very possible upset.
It pains my heart that Sasha mentioned 4 of the song nominees as possible, leaving out only ‘Mystery of Love’. 🙁
Also, finally saw some shorts that are on Youtube.
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 probably has no chance if people actually watch Edith + Eddie as opposed to just voting based off the title. It’s too emotional to lose.
I would LOVE it if Garden Party won in animated, but I don’t think the Academy will appreciate this kind of humour.
I thought Dear Basketball was actually pretty mediocre, but the star power might be enough.
Lou was sweet enough to be the “default winner” if they don’t go for Kobe Bryant.
I do not understand Sasha’s insistence toward Mudbound’s song Mighty River or Stand Up for Something. To me it’s really clear it’s between This is Me and Remember Me, although I love Mystery of Love.
Also would love to see Greenwood upset for score. Desplat’s is great too, but Phantom Thread’s is unforgettable.
With you on pretty much all of that. I hope you’re wrong about Edith+Eddie, though, but I accept there’s a strong chance that wins, instead of my and Sasha’s pick.
Forget it. “Get Out” is not winning. “Vulture” interviewed about 15 Academy Members and their picks. All of them, new members invited in the last two years. All of them, young. Some of them said that in their respective branches, the old contigent of the Academy haven’t either watched “Get Out” and is not even putting it in their ballots. The race is between “Shape” and “Bilboard”. Interesting is that, even with this group (some of the interviewed people in their 20s), “Lady Bird” got only one vote. The vast majority of these members said it is overrated and not oscar worth. In this same poll, Oldman prevailed over Chalamet. “Get Out” is not “12 Years a Slave” for people “vote on it even without seeing”. It is not winning
“In this same poll, Oldman prevailed over Chalamet.”
By one vote.
Chalamet. Isn’t. Winning.
Happy Oscar weekend in America! (and other countries abroad too, I suppose) It’s gonna set to be am all-timer shitshow, so take solace in what you can! See you all Sunday night.
Does anyone happen to know what’s going on with the VOD release of the shorts? Weren’t they supposed to be released on Tuesday?
They are on Amazon and YouTube.
Really? I’ve been waiting for them for 3 days on Vimeo
Yeah it’s really annoying. Only discovered them myself this morning. They don’t even have all the animated ones!
They are listed as Oscar® Nominated Short Films 2018. Select Animation and Live Action.
When do we see the results of the AD voters’ choices?
Just a couple of hours from now!
??