Lots of surprises? Maybe on the surface. But as Sasha points out on our last podcast, some of these ‘surprises’ are things we would fully expect to see. When we take time to dive deeper into all the internal numbers, especially considering the demographic breakdown, we can find some explanations for why the results played out among AD voters as they did. For example, fully 58% of our voters are 35 or younger; 64% of our voters are LGBT individuals. That’s less like veteran Hollywood and more like WeHo.
Always bear in mind, the most valuable purpose served by Rob’s incredibly detailed efforts each year is to open a window into the inner machinery of the ballot process itself, so that we can see precisely how the preferential system operates with concrete examples. Alas, AD reader taste bears scant relation to Academy taste and we know all the reasons for that. One of the most interesting things about these simulated Oscar ballots each year is to see what goes on below the simple list of who won what. The votes totals not only help us see the supposed strength of each winner, they give us something the actual Oscars never do — it tells us who almost won. (I like to keep in that in mind to help remind myself that we can’t blame the entire Academy for some of the decisions other members make.)
The Best Picture dominance of Call Me By Your Name among our voters aligns with other polls we see at Gold Derby and GALECA and even with Sasha’s polls on Facebook. Since we’re just not seeing that support reflected in any of the industry precursors overall, we wondered how the tabulation for Dr. Rob’s simulation would have gone had CMBYN not been on the ballot. Rob went the extra mile for us to run the numbers for that hypothetical.