BEST FEATURE: Get Out
BEST DIRECTOR: Jordan Peele – Get Out
BEST FEMALE LEAD: Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST MALE LEAD: Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE: Alison Janney – I, Tonya
BEST SUPPORTING MALE: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST SCREENPLAY: Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY: Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Sayombhu Mukdeeprom – Call Me By Your Name
BEST EDITING: Tatiana S. Riegel – I, Tonya
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: A Fantastic Woman
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Faces Places – Agnes Varda
BEST FIRST FEATURE: Ingrid Goes West
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD: Life and Nothing More
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD: MUDBOUND
Dee Rees, Billy Hopkins & Ashley Ingram , Jonathan Banks, Mary J. Blige, Jason Clarke, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Mitchell, Rob Morgan, Carey Mulligan
Bonnie Award: Chloé Zhao
~~
Here are the nominees:
BEST FEATURE:
- Call Me By Your Name
- Get Out
- The Florida Project
- Lady Bird
- The Rider
BEST FIRST FEATURE:
- Columbus
- Ingrid Goes West
- Menashe
- Oh Lucy
- Patty Cake$
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD:
- A Ghost Story
- Dayveon
- Life and Nothing More
- Most Beautiful Island
- Transfiguration
BEST DIRECTOR:
- Sean Baker – The Florida Project
- Jonas Carpignano- A Ciambra
- Luca Gudagnino – Call Me By Your Name
- Jordan Peele – Get Out
- Benny Safdie/Joshua Safdie – Good Time
- Chloé Zhao – The Rider
BEST FEMALE LEAD:
- Salma Hayek – Beatriz at Dinner
- Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
- Saiorse Ronin – Lady Bird
- Shinobu Terajima – Oh Lucy
- Regina Williams – Life And Nothing
BEST MALE LEAD:
- Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
- Harris Dickinson – Beach Rats
- James Franco – The Disaster Artist
- Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
- Robert Pattinson – Good Time
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE:
- Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
- Alison Janney – I, Tonya
- Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
- Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime
- Talia Webster – Good Time
BEST SUPPORTING MALE:
- Nnamdi Asomugha – Crown Heights
- Armie Hammer -Call Me By Your Name
- Barry Keoghan – Killing of a Sacred Deer
- Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Ben Safdie – Good Time
BEST SCREENPLAY:
- Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
- Azazel Jacobs – The Lovers
- Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Jordan Peele – Get Out
- Mike White – Beatriz At Dinner
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY:
- Donald Cried
- The Big Sick
- Woman Who Kill
- Columbus
- Ingrid Goes West
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
- The Killing of a Sacred Deer
- Columbus
- Beach Rats
- Call Me By Your Name
- The Rider
BEST EDITING:
- Good Time
- Call Me By Your Name
- The Rider
- Get Out
- I, Tonya
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
- The Departure
- Faces Places
- Last Men in Aleppo
- Motherland
- Quest
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:
- A Fantastic Woman
- BPM
- Lady Macbeth
- Not A Witch
- Loveless
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD
- MUDBOUND
Dee Rees, Billy Hopkins & Ashley Ingram , Jonathan Banks, Mary J. Blige, Jason Clarke, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Mitchell, Rob Morgan, Carey Mulligan
Piaget Producers Award
- Giulia Caruso & Ki Jin Kim
- Ben LeClair
- Summer Shelton
Kiehls Someone to Watch Award:
- Abbasi Bros – Dayveon
- Justin Chon – Gook Film
- Kevin Phillips – Super Dark Times
Filmmaker Grants
Bonnie Award:
- So Yong Kim
- Lynn Shelton
- Chloé Zhao
What a great night, not all my picks won but it was still wonderful! So happy Agnes varda was there, and I loved Dee Rees speech wow.
So I just watched the independent spirits. I love Chalamet and his speech was amazing but I simply cannot back the dabbing. Sorry Timmy.
Something significant just happened: Joyce Eng, who had had The Shape of Water all this time, finally switched to Three Billboards herself… I don’t know, if there was still strong talk of backlash, would she really have done this? Would so many others have done it earlier? I don’t think so. (She could still be wrong, obviously – easily. But it has to be a good sign for Three Billboards, if it means anything. These last minute switches for picture – like when Tom O’Neill switched to Spotlight, or when Sasha switched to Moonlight late on as well, though I’m not sure if her switch was also in the very last days or not – seem to be significant, in general. It’s not the same for the other categories, but when it comes to picture they seem to be good omens.) I guess she was waiting for the Independent Spirit Awards. Perhaps it’s also significant that she didn’t switch to Get Out, instead…
http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-2018/picture/
In other news, I’m switching my official prediction for costume design to Phantom Thread. I’m keeping my Awards Daily entry as Beauty and the Beast, because I don’t have any real upsets predicted otherwise, and it’s a solid stats alternative (as is The Shape of Water), but I don’t want my score for my official predictions to go down because I went for the upset in a category where almost nobody else did. I’d rather get it wrong because I chickened out… I will refer back to this thread later, if need be – I’m not sure how many people are going to see this in time. Hopefully, at least enough to back up that I actually made this switch before the Oscars, if there’s doubt. 🙂 Not that it’s that important, but I like to be able to back up everything I say, even the minor things. I hate being accused of rewriting history.
[Re-post, obviously…]
“In other news, I’m switching my official prediction for costume design to Phantom Thread.”
Six hours left before the show, Claudiu, and five more Phantom Thread-categories to go! 😉
In other words: What about Jonny Greenwood?!
“Six hours left before the show, Claudiu, and five more Phantom Thread-categories to go! ;-)”
:)) I like it!…
“In other words: What about Jonny Greenwood?!”
I hope he wins (the Shape score really started to get on my nerves the second time I watched the movie – it got stuck in my head this time around, but not in the good way), but I can’t predict it. I’ll be very happy to be wrong about this one. So much more deserving! (Though my favorite of the nominees is still Burwell – pending that 3B rewatch, which I was simply unable to find time for, what with the Spirits, some sporting events, podcasts, AD articles to read, replies to write… Hopefully I’ll have time for it post-Oscars.)
I don’t know about Joyce I’ve hardly followed her before this year but she seems very jumpy and influenced by peer pressure in the goldgold podcasts so I wouldn’t be surprised if she switched because Tom pushed her into it or something…
As for costume design I was really struggling over that same choice but the big thing I’m surrounded with is neither has production design nom and winner for costumescostumes has that so I’m tempted to switch over to Shape… Though that feels like something only costume designers themselves would go for… And I don’t see Darkest hour winning…
No, but Beauty and the Beast does have the PD nom! 🙂 I wouldn’t even be considering it if it didn’t…
“I don’t know about Joyce I’ve hardly followed her before this year but she seems very jumpy and influenced by peer pressure”
I didn’t get that feeling… If that’s true, sure, it’s perhaps irrelevant, but I tend to doubt it. (Maybe it seemed that way precisely because she was considering switching to 3B already, but just hadn’t decided yet.) She seems quiet but thoughtful, and definitely not like she’s just a “copier”, doing what all the other pundits are doing. I could be wrong.
Oh really, well I’m blind I’m switching to that then…
I dunno that was just my impression of her from the goldderby podcasts because she is constantly saying she has no confidence in her picks and was almost asking people to convince her to chance… But maybe that’s just her on screen confidence, I dunno.
“I’m switching to that then…”
I mean, the stat derived from PT’s wins is also quite strong. Technically stronger than the PD stat, which has about 15% exceptions (but a much larger sample, of course). So I’m not sure the PD snub for PT is enough to make it lose, like it was for Jackie. The Phoenix stat is good, but I’m not sure it’s very solid on the logic front. Could be more coincidence than anything that that’s the best predictor. The tipping point, for me, the reason I decided I don’t dare keep it as my official prediction, is that B&tB just doesn’t FEEL like one of those lavish costume movies that win here… it’s a lot of meh peasant costumes, plus the beast’s outfits, which are also largely uninteresting, and some dresses for Emma Watson, all of which I thought were very unimpressive. It’s really not as much of a flashy costume piece as most previous winners in that category, even though it still fits the bill a bit more than PT, perhaps. I do think it could upset, obviously, since I’m keeping it for the contest here, but this and something Ferdinand said earlier made me think it’s less likely than Fantastic Beasts was to pull it off. (That one pulled off a surprise BAFTA PD win, whereas Beasts has shown no industry strength whatsoever.) And, after all, Jackie had the “recreations” issue, which Phantom Thread doesn’t, as far as I know. (It might have others, like the one that anonymous costume designer mentioned.) It’s all very unclear… 🙂
About Joyce Eng: I just think she was expressing how crazy a year it was, in saying she wasn’t confident. It’s understandable to be less confident than usual in a year like this. (At least for picture.) But, indeed, I doubt she’s like that when she’s on her own. It’s also her first year on the podcasts full-time, after all, so she’s bound to be a bit less outwardly confident. She has no seniority. 🙂 Even if she had super-strong opinions, she probably wouldn’t dare be as bullish about them “on the air”, and dismissive about the rest, as a Tom O’Neill is, who’s been around forever. But it’s also possible you’re right about her simply being unsure of herself. I tend to think that’s not the reason for her on-screen persona, but it is a possibility that can’t be ignored.
Yeah something just hasn’t been sitting right with PT winning so I have been looking for a switch so when you mention B&tB does have PD I was like well that’s where I’ll end up then. I know Critics Choice+BAFTA is very strong but sometimes I have to listen to (and be lead astray by) my gut and there is just something about PT winning costumes that I can’t get behind (maybe it’s that every time I’ve considered going for a film about fashion it hasn’t won). But I dunno I’m bad at this catagory I went for Jackie last year (though I guess everyone got that one wrong).
Yeah I guess I should just put it down to an on screen persona but as I said I haven’t really followed her on the past so I won’t really trust her too much for a few years anyway to be honest (though I am going for 3 Bills anyway so I’m in agreement with her switch).
Have movies about fashion been up for this a lot? The Devil Wears Prada – which lost, having no PD nod – comes to mind, but apart from that? I’m sure they’re there, but I just can’t think of them… Probably because I don’t watch the costume design nominees very often. 🙂
This doesn’t really change my Oscar predictions beyond the increased feeling Three Billboards or Lady Bird are taking Original Screenplay. Get Out is probably going emptyhanded tonight… it won Picture and Director, yes, but 3B and Guillermo del Toro were not ellegible there… and in Original Screenplay, it lost to Lady Bird. So I am betting for tonight… 3B – del Toro – McDormand – Oldman – Janney – Rockwell – 3B – CMBYN
Stats are heavily against LB winning BOS. It is either “Get Out”(WGA and BFCA winner) or Three Bullshit(BAFTA and GG winner). The Shape has more chance than LB. ISA were just throwing a bone to LB, especially Gerwig.
I wish The Rider had won something besides the Bonnie Award. It’s a special film.
I’m genuinely surprised that CMBYN lost bp and to a lesser extent bd. This seems like the crowd that would have gone for that one hard. Having said that, I’m ecstatic that get out won bp and bd. I’m just a little surprised it didn’t also take screenplay. I’m sure voters just tried to give a Greta something.
The fact that it wasn’t nominated for Screenplay indicated that early on I think.
The film which had all the key nominations won BP and BD, unsurprisingly.
I think voting for a film written and directed by a black man was more political a statement for these voters than voting for a film written and directed by a gay man. And the Spirits have been going more and more for big box office films. It’s too bad Columbus didn’t win anything.
I think you’re right, which is why I’m predicting ”Get Out” to win Original Screenplay. Jordan Peele’s had such a great year as its producer, director and writer, and Hollywood will want to reward him. Plus, he’d be the first African-American to win for Original Screenplay. I just don’t see how Peele loses.
I’m surprised that ”Columbus” didn’t win, given that it had more Indie Spirits noms than ”Ingrid,” plus 4 nominations at the Gothams (where ”Ingrid” had 0).
I think “Get Out” is stats favourite perspective or has better narrative for winning to (Peele has three nominations compared to two for Gerwig and McDonagh, the only POC that can win a major Oscar this year). Another indication is that many pundits think that too despite going with other films for BP. Another indication is that honest Academy have been giving hints about it too.
Exactly! It’s too neat to be anything other than spreading the wealth.
Get out just got a big boost for the Oscars today.
au contraire, mon ami… it lost the award that is supposed to win tonight, and won where 3B and del Toro were NOT nominated.
That has absolutely no bearing on what will happen. It won the two biggest awards. They just gave Gerwig screenplay. You cannot read to much into since they are not really predicting the Oscar this year. They didn’t even nominate the two frontrunners.
Nice to see Greta Gerwig winning for Screenplay. Probably because of voting tactics, since they gave Peele the award for directing? I would be amazed to see her repeating this at the Oscars, but my disillusioned mind says “Three Billboards” (because I think it might take Best Picture and it makes no sense to me to believe it wins with the preferential ballot and still loses Screenplay).
And in terms of Best Picture: Can “Get out” overcome the Academys bias against such satiric horror genre flicks? Nope, don´t believe that…
I saw Gerwig’s win in Screenplay as Indies’ way of spreading the wealth. They wanted her to win something, and since she wasn’t up for Director, they gave her screenplay.
I agree, especially if you consider that Gerwig is an icon of independent cinema – would have felt wrong to snub her at the Indies.
They really spread the wealth: 2 wins for ”Call Me by Your Name,” ”Get Out,” ”I, Tonya” and ”Three Billboards.” Plus, one for ”Lady Bird,” and the Altman prize for ”Mudbound.”
The HOTNESS of Timothee Chalamet. The guy’s on his way to being a big star. I doubt he will have to wait 40 years to get an Oscar.
I doubt he will have to wait 24 hours to get an Oscar.
+1000
Surely even if you want him to win you’ve gotta doubt that he wins tomorrow?
I was looking for a ‘No Doubt’ gif and this is what came up…
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1048/7094/files/blog_gwen-stefani-dont-say-video-gif.gif?11500200735826626702
My gifs don’t lie… Sigh.
I am not a fan of Gwen Stefani, but I love this song. I remember loving it when it came and it’s still a classic.
He has zero chance of winning Sunday.
They vote the best performance, not for the hottest. Margot Robbie would be a lock if hotness was the criteria. Though she will likely win in another year.
Define ‘best’.
I just don’t see this as anything notable for Get Out, especially since it lost screenplay, which most of the general sweepers here have won in the previous 5 years (Moonlight, Spotlight, 12 Years a Slave, Silver Linings Playbook).
Also, we did quite well. Only 4 of my 11 votes turned out to be the winner but these were still quite good choices
“especially since it lost screenplay, which most of the general sweepers here have won in the previous 5 years (Moonlight, Spotlight, 12 Years a Slave, Silver Linings Playbook).”
Exactly what I was saying…
It’s not notable because it won’t be like that at the Oscars.
I got 30 screeners total this year, 28 directly from film independent and I was missing only 2 films that were completely unavailable in my area so I emailed the production companies and they sent me the screeners. Shout out to the folks behind I am not a witch and a Ciambra, thankyou so much for letting me see your movies.
It’s pretty amazing! You totally need to sign up. This is my third year and I love being a member! And thanks to the screeners they sent me I got to see every nominee for the oscars this year too!
Glad they went for Get Out! It’s definitely the most deserving of the nominees, in my opinion, in both of the categories it won. Also in screenplay, but it strangely lost there… It was also great, obviously, to see The Big Sick win something again – I’d forgotten about this opportunity. 🙂 I thought the Critics Choice win was going to be the last televised one. Awesome!
I changed my original prediction of Lady Bird for screenplay here to Get Out, like a dumb-ass. 🙂 That’s the only one I changed… I would’ve gotten 10/14, which, for a bunch of predictions thrown in at lightning speed, with zero research, would have been really nice. I got 9/14, as it was, which isn’t terrible, anyway.
Stats, so to speak:
– as is known, no Oscar BP winner has ever lost Best Film here after being nominated, so this is perhaps bad for Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name. 6/6. (Not also for Three Billboards, since it wasn’t nominated, though that was probably already bad, as it was for the also eligible The Shape of Water – this is more difficult to check, for obvious reasons, but I’m pretty sure it’s a stat.) Get Out avoids having to face this stat, so clearly it’s good for its chances, though how good is hard to estimate, because plenty of BP nominees won this (as Get Out has) and then lost BP, most recently Silver Linings Playbook, and also Black Swan, Precious, Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Brokeback Mountain, Sideways, Lost in Translation, Crouching Tiger, Fargo and Pulp Fiction. That’s 11. So, when a BP nominee wins this, it also wins BP only 35% of the time. 6/17 times. But always in the last 4 years, which could mean we’ve got a trend on our hands. Or not.
– unless I’m missing something, Gods and Monsters is the only Oscar screenplay winner to be nominated here and not win that category. Does that mean Lady Bird is winning, instead of Get Out or Three Billboards? Probably not… The sample isn’t big enough (since a lot of years no screenplay winner was nominated here) to draw such conclusions, plus, of course, no voter overlap. But it’s an interesting twist.
– 4/5 BP winners that were nominated in that category won for screenplay here. The Artist didn’t. Sample too small and already one exception, so probably irrelevant.
– 5/6 BP winners that were nominated for directing here won the award. Birdman didn’t. Same comment as above. Also, again, like for Best Film, plenty of BP nominees won for directing here and then lost BD. Same goes for screenplay, obviously…
– A Fantastic Woman winning for international film here is a good omen for the Oscars, as 4 of the last 6 foreign film winners won this, and one other wasn’t nominated (The Salesman). This award has gone to some other foreign film Oscar winners in the past, as well.
– likewise, the win for Faces Places is good for its Oscar chances, probably. The Oscar winner for documentary has never lost here when nominated, also out of six instances, so Last Men in Aleppo takes a bit of a hit, maybe. In this category, when an Oscar nominee wins, it wins the Oscar as well 6/9 times, so a lot more often than the Best Film winner wins BP.
So, yeah, not a lot of great stats here, but some interesting ones, nonetheless.
TEEM-OH-TAY!!!!!!!!!!!
Timot’HEY!
Vive Agnès Varda! Vive JR!
Yes , it costs 95.00 to vote and you get a lot of screeners not all films but A24 sent out screeners to all 7films it received nominations. You also get downloads that’s what you get from Sony pictures classics.
I’m glad Lady bird won over the overrated get out.
Sounds cool! I always struggle to catch those indie films in theaters before the Oscars so the screeners could certainly help. I will probably wait until next fall to decide whether I am excited enough about the potential players to purchase a membership.
Is this not working for our friends around the world?
https://www.facebook.com/IFC/videos/vb.19557566476/1541088562674351/
Nah I’m not letting Jeff Zuckerberg eat my brains just to watch two fugly guys host an awards show. You need an account for the app. I’ve got one foot in the grave there’s no point in selling my soul now.
I bought strawberry shortcake. I was going to get fish sticks and chocolate cake and Kool-Aid but it looked better. 🙂
That sounds lovely. Bon appétit!
The biggest thing the Spirit Awards did was remind me how much I LOVED Good Time. In a perfect world, this movie would’ve gotten some Oscar love.
This! At least for Patterson (he could’ve taken the Washington slot)
I would’ve nominated this for Picture, Screenplay and Actor. But I’d replace DDL for Patterson. I loved Phantom Thread but that had nothing to do with DDL’s performance. Meanwhile I thought Washington did his best to save a pretty terrible screenplay.
I admit I haven’t seen Roman J Israel I’m just trusting what people have said about it when I made that comment… I would have loved it to get a bunch too but I was just thinking there it’s a really obvious position for it there where they would’ve struggled to kick something out for it in the other catagories (regardless of personal opinion). I also think cinematography and editing would be really deserving to be honest.
Congrats Greta! I have Lady Bird for Pic & Screenplay tomorrow until Original Screenplay is announced. If it goes to Get Out I’ll switch to Get Out for Picture POSSIBLY. I predict as the night goes along, u get more right lol but Techs I predict before it starts or as they’re announcing the nominees. It’s fun to just go with ur gut instic at the moment right before they announce
I am absolutely disgusted that Laurie Metcalf is not going to win a single major prize for Lady Bird. Allison Janney in I Tonya isn’t even in the same league. There I said it. ugh.
Thank you for saying it. Couldn’t agree more. I’ve always liked Janney and I found her to be really good in I, Tonya but nowhere near as incredible as Laurie Metcalf is in Lady Bird or Leslie Manville in Phantom Thread. Definitely not the kind of performance that deserved to sweep every award possible leaving ever other nominee with not even a single major award.
She’s better on Mom where she shows more range.
That’s what I’ve heard as well
Very disappointing. Unfortunately that has happened many times over the years on Oscar night. Tomorrow will be one of those years.
I rejoice at the shift. Yay, Allison Janney! =D
(On the other hand…Willem Dafoe giving way to Sam Rockwell. Ehh…not happy.)
Early in the season, Metcalf won Supporting Actress from the L.A. Film Critics and the National Board of Review, as well as over a dozen regional critics’ groups. It looked like she’d be a shoo-in for the Oscar. But somehow, the tide turned at the Golden Globes, & it’s been Allison Janney winning all the televised prizes (SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Indies).
Yes you just restated what we all know.
I was responding to Theatregeek’s statement that ”Laurie Metcalf is not going to win a single major prize for Lady Bird.”
Most people don’t consider NBR or critics groups major prizes though… Because they’re not…
The National Board of Review has been given out since the 1930s, and it’s one of filmdom’s oldest prizes. Oscar pundits, including our own Sasha, look to it as an early bellwether. And it’s certainly considered ”major” enough that its winners show up at a giant N.Y. gala to accept them.
I think both are fantastic and equally deserving of the win. As usual, stronger campaigning + showier role gives you a definitive advantage. I still would pick up Manville over both of them, but I’d be happy with any of the 5 nominees winning, honestly.
YAY! Glad my vote helped.
Well that’s good news since GET OUT is my favorite of the BP nominees tomorrow. If it could kill the film festival stanglehold over the Oscar race it would be a great day for humanity.
Didn’t you say the other day that you haven’t seen CALL ME BY YOUR NAME?
Yes I did?
Did you get a chance to see Call Me By Your Name? No? Can I ask why?
Only played here during the AMC Oscar marathon. Don’t even know what time but I would have had to pay for the whole thing and I’d seen the other 8 movies already. I made a vow at the beginning of this season, or the end of last, that I wasn’t going to knock myself trying to see the Oscar fare. If they didn’t get their movies to me and the rest of America in time then tough noogies. I’m sure it’s wonderful and I’d never say anything against a movie I haven’t seen and I haven’t. I had no problem seeing the other ones at the local multiplex however.
I was only able to see Moonlight last year by watching an illegal version online. I wasn’t going to do that again. Why it’s always the gay movies is beyond me. Someone needs to work on that.
Then how can it be your favorite of all of the nominees when you haven’t even seen all of the movies? I mean, if you’re going to frequently comment on the message board about the awards race and handicap all of the movies shouldn’t you see them all?
You’re not talking to me, but I know that CMBYN did not come to a theater close to me. I can’t do my job and see all the nominated films—honestly. I had to go 45 minutes just to see Darkest Hour.
Who the hell are you and why don’t you ask everyone else if they’ve seen all the movies? Ask them where they live and if all the movies have played there.
Get Out is PART OF the film festival crowd. Why would it be nominated for Indie Spirits otherwise?
What? I mean the Telluride/Toronto/Venice etc rule where everything goes through there on their way to victory. GET OUT was in wide release a year ago.
Get Out has nothing to do with film festivals. It’s eligible for Indie Spirit awards because it only cost $4.5 million to produce – financed by small production companies outside the studio system.
I really REALLY hope the Oscars don’t follow up on this BP. Get Out is sooooo overrated, I just don’t get it, it’s getting ridiculous at this point. If anything Lady Bird should win, although I’m predicting 3B but who knows…
Calling something overrated is purely subjective. “I did not care for Get Out” is a more accurate phrasing.
Well, yes, that’s my personal opinion, I guess it depends on the person, I was just stating that for me is overrated.
Exactly! By saying it’s overrated, he’s implying others shouldn’t rate it so highly.
“Overrated” = “I’m unable or unwilling to see what millions of other people see in a movie.”
Why do you people take opinions so freaking personally? Or is it that whenever you express your opinion you do so believing that it is an universal truth? Me saying that the movie is overrated is JUST MY OPINION. Get over it. Or are you saying that the fact that you like it means everyone does and I’m just stupid for not seeing it?
I understand but overrated is the usual thing people say when they don’t like something. Say you don’t like but remember that it’s not overrated because you said so. Others like so much that is why it’s rated so highly.
Did Sayombhu Mukdeeprom and Agnes Varda attend?
Varda did.
I didn’t see the Spirits via Facebook, but I see Cinematography was given off-camera before the broadcast. Deadline.com’s blog seems to report that Editing was given during the broadcast. Was it during a commercial break? And were cinematographer Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (”Call Me by Your Name”) or editor Tatiana S. Riegel (”I, Tonya”) acknowledged at all? … I’d love to hear that Mukdeeprom was there, but he’s from Thailand, and maybe he’s on location. I’m surprised that Armie Hammer wasn’t there, since he was at an Oscar party the previous night. Anyone know what happened?
Tatiana was there and gave a nice acceptance speech- and yes it was part of the show.
Armie has the stomach flu, but should be ready for tomorrow according to his IG. Chalamet was FaceTiming with Armie throughout the Spirits.
Thanks for the update. … If they knew Mukdeeprom wasn’t gonna be there, maybe they decided to drop the category, so it wouldn’t take up time on the broadcast, but they still should’ve acknowledged his win. It’s also sucky that his fellow cinematographers weren’t noted either.
7.
The over/under on how many Oscar major wins will mirror these guys
The last 4 spirit wins for best feature has won the best picture oscar.
I hope this streak ends but I’m afraid Get Out might win.
It is the weakest of the 5 films nominated for the spirit awards and the second weakest oscar nom.
Well to me, among nominees only CMBYN and PT are stronger, Lady Bird about equal, if Get Out wins BP I’d be perfectly happy.
And 11 of the 12 before that which were BP nominees didn’t. (Not to mention the many that weren’t BP nominees…)
It is, actually, the strongest. Only people who does not stop to analyze it, think otherwise
I have analyzed it, and I think otherwise. Some people might think I have overanalyzed it, and it would have been better if I hadn’t analyzed it at all.
Ok, so am I the only one who just changed my Best Picture prediction for what seems like the 90th time?
To Get Out? This was always expected wasn’t it, the last jolt of energy for Get Out before the Oscars, kind of like Moonlight last year, who knows if history will repeat.
We’ll see. You could be right.
I’m assuming you changed to Get Out? I’d already been predicting it, but this made me feel much better about it.
Yes. I told myself in December, “Get Out is going to win. No matter what happens, keep it as your prediction.” I did change to Three B Thursday. I have no idea what will happen, but I guess I feel good about picking the same movie for screenplay and picture.
I may change again.
For a second I thought could CMBYN win best feature? But no.
I will keep hoping for a miracle until 4 to 5 minutes after its name has not been called for Best Picture. After all Warren and Faye are presenting again, anything could happen!
I dreamt about 3B winning last night, which may be a positive sign since my dream very rarely come true. A CMBYN win needs a miracle, I remain somewhat hopeful since it’s going to carry Adapted Screenplay afterall, haha
ah ah! you don’t believe in your dreams? Mine are hit and miss so they just leave me confused.
“After all Warren and Faye are presenting again, anything could happen!”
Is it confirmed? 100%?
Looks like a done deal. TMZ reports seeing them at the Oscars rehearsal.
Awesome!
There was no official announcement but according to TMZ they were seen entering the building and they rehearsed for Best Picture with Warren calling ‘Gone with the Wind’. It is the best thing to do since last years’ kerfuffle made them seem dotty even though they really did read their card right.
Yeah, I like the move too. Well done to the producers!…
It was on NBC news on Friday night.
I haven’t changed my prediction at all after the day BAFTA nominations came out… 🙂
Did you think Get Out wasn’t going to win here? I was pretty sure it was. I guess Call Me By Your Name was a possibility… And Lady Bird. But Get Out seemed by far the most logical winner. (Since they don’t really split much, but go for sweeps, and Guadagnino was never very likely to win directing. Gerwig could have, I guess.) Same as for the WGA. Still, more interesting, to me, is that it lost screenplay. That’s a bit bizarre and doesn’t really fit in with BP winners that win the Spirits first. Only The Artist won film+director here and lost screenplay (being nominated), and still won BP at the Oscars. Anyway, this absolutely does not worry me. Stats-wise, as you can see above, it means pretty much nothing, unless you stop researching after looking at the last 4 years… And even then the sample is way too small. If you go beyond that, it’s clear that winning here is pretty neutral when it comes to winning BP. About two thirds of the BP nominees that won here lost Best Picture. Including two in the preferential era. What would have worried me would have been if McDormand or Rockwell had lost. Screenplay never seemed likely to go to Three Billboards here.
See I’m actually quite surprised Get Out won because Film independent membership is open to anyone on the internet and the internet really seems to love Call Me By Your Name… But maybe the fact that membership costs money cut that down a bit…
There’s a difference between anyone on the internet and just people on predictions/Oscar-watching sites, I would say. Get Out is the more populist kind of movie – CMBYN is much more of an elites thing. Like, for people really into film history, instead of just average movie lovers. Get Out might also have been seen more widely. No guarantee all of the voters see everything in time, right?
Anyway, I just had a very strong feeling it was going to win. 🙂 I wasn’t predicting it based on any actually formulated logical arguments. But I didn’t hesitate for a second. Maybe it means I think it might win the Oscar. I don’t know… I’d be very OK with that, by the way – it would even fit my system, under the assumption that it would have beaten Three Billboards at the WGA, thus eliminating that, like The Shape of Water, via the WGA loss + 1 rule. Then, even its nominations ranking stats problem wouldn’t matter, because it would be the only movie left standing.
I will have only been wrong in my assumption that 3B would have won the WGA, then, which I wouldn’t be terribly upset about at all. That one’s super-tricky to call, and a non-standard wrench thrown into the proceedings (due to 3B’s ineligibility, in addition to its snub), that doesn’t resemble any other year my system has dealt with – except maybe the Birdman year, but then Birdman was a clearer stats pick for the WGA over The Grand Budapest Hotel than 3B is over Get Out, if it is at all. Wouldn’t be a big deal to get BP wrong under those circumstances. And, as long as The Shape of Water doesn’t win, I’m really OK with pretty much anything else… Which probably means Shape WILL win. 🙂 Oh, well…
“Get Out might also have been seen more widely.”
To put it mildly… 😉
Yeah I just thought that film independent would be a place which would attract a lot of a) Oscar watchers who want to be able to vote on something and b) relatively indie internet people who would be a very CMBYN crowd… But obviously I was wrong because get out won ☺️
Yeah I could totally see Get Out winning if it wins screenplay. I am with you in predicting 3 Bills but I think it’s pretty close between the 2 (I’ve given up on Shape entirely – especially since it feels like a split pic/ director has been agreed upon by now). Because yeah exactly the way to push Get Out into prime position is to change the assumption of who would’ve won WGA and we honestly just don’t know!
Regardless you can be consoled by the fact that if you’re left unhappy I will be left very happy ☺️ though I’m really happy with this year in general so I won’t be unhappy with any winner. Except BR in VFX (that is my pet race this year and I feel like I’m gonna be left unhappy by it).
“Because yeah exactly the way to push Get Out into prime position is to change the assumption of who would’ve won WGA and we honestly just don’t know!”
Yeah, it’s like they (you know, the South Park “they”) thought: OK, we’ve given ’em all kinds of crazy races in recent years, so they think they’re ready for anything now, they think they’ve seen it all… so what can we do this year to REALLY make things unclear, something we’ve never really done before??? 🙂 And then they came up with having a WGA-ineligible movie be snubbed for directing, everything else snubbed for something, and made it so it was 99% unclear whether it or this other big contender would have won the WGA, which thus also ended up being the key to which of the two of them would be the actual stats favorite… They really outdid themselves this time around! 🙂
“though I’m really happy with this year in general so I won’t be unhappy with any winner. ”
Yeah, that’s right, you liked even more of the BP nominees than I did, right? Did you end up truly disliking any of them? (Or being completely indifferent to one, like I was with CMBYN.)
Yeah they really outdid themselves indeed!
Um no hugely, I kinda felt indifferent abiut the post (there was a lot to like but the 2 stories they were telling felt really in conflict and I couldn’t really get past that – plus the final scene really made my eyes roll which doesn’t help). But as I say there is a lot to like about it. And I dunno I loved lady bird the first time I watched it but on rewatch it’s shot down my list quite a bit (though I would still happily sit through it again). Conversely a rewatch of 3 Billboards sent it up my list quite a bit. It is way more rewatchable than I expected!
“plus the final scene really made my eyes roll which doesn’t help”
I must be the only one who liked that scene in The Post! 🙂 (We’re talking about the Watergate scene, right? I’m not sure if that’s THE last scene.) Literally everybody else seems to have hated it.
Lady Bird probably even went up for me a little on rewatch. It definitely didn’t go down.
“Conversely a rewatch of 3 Billboards sent it up my list quite a bit. It is way more rewatchable than I expected!”
Good news for me! 🙂 I have one of those planned as well…
Yeah I meant the Watergate scene… It may not be the last bit close enough… But yeah fair enough.
The thing with Lady Bird was that when I first saw it I kinda of looked for and superficially found it to be I guess more grand and impressive than it really was. When I rewatched it I couldn’t help but go no this is just a sweet little movie… And it is a very sweet little movie but I fell quite deeply into the this isn’t exactly Oscar caliber camp after a rewatch… Which certainly doesn’t mean ithink it’s bad by any stretch of the imagination!
I never thought it was anything more than a sweet little movie. 🙂 But that in no way means it can’t still be best of the year, for me, if it’s the best-made or most effective of the lot. In a way, Slumdog Millionaire isn’t much more than that, and that’s my favorite of its year… Not to mention Little Miss Sunshine, which is the definition of “sweet little movie”, and is one of my all-time favorites, and I also very much think it’s the best of that year, even better than Letters from Iwo Jima! Not the case with specifically Lady Bird. (It’s close, though, I like it roughly as much as the best of the nominees, Dunkirk and Get Out, maybe only slightly less, though I do like it clearly less than The Big Sick and War for the Planet of the Apes, but even then not by much.)
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/970088820459831298
Well, it went as expected.
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/970093771575693312
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/970091111027965952
Omfg. <3
I want timothee to win the Oscar so much. These winners are better than the Oscars cause timothee Jordan and Greta all won.
If Metcalf had won it would’ve been perfect…
Life, much like the twisted quagmire of the Amazon, is rarely pristine. In the midst of the overwhelming carnage and chaos you must focus on the little bits of beauty that pop up, unfettered, from the rotting and musky bed of decomposing leaves that is our lives.
Haha. Wikipedia already claims that McDormand has won.
It must have been Gail.
And there we have it…the last award Timothée Chalamet will receive this season.
Maybe the Oscar season. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Timothee Chalamet’s popular enough with the young crowd that he could pop up in People’s Choice or MTV Movie Award nominations. And it’d be great if Chalamet and Armie Hammer got nominated for Best Kiss. Same-sex pairings have won: Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal in ”Brokeback Mountain,” and Ashton Sanders and Jharrel Jerome in ”Moonlight.”
Yes, the MTV Best KISS Award. Surely the Cadillac of movie awards.
Jordan Peele- Best Director
Sad. It should be Guadagnino.
is anyone else seeing these interviews about going to the bathroom?
I’m coming here when they’re on.
Unfortunately, yes.
Yes. Good on Lady Bird.
holy crap this is bad
Good lord. How long are those speeches?
They got the best international film award right.
I voted for the Rider for best cinematography and Laurie Metcalf for supporting actress.
The next award best first screenplay I voted for the big sick
Voted
Go Chile!!!
“Alison Janney, I Tonya”
Do they even read the envelope any more? Or do they just blindly repeat the names they have heard all season?
https://www.facebook.com/IFC/videos/1541088562674351/
Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you…
Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you…
Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you…
You get the idea, right?
If CMBYN wins Feature, I’ll take that as proof that Get Out is being overestimated.
How are we supposed to watch this now? I don’t have a facebook so does that mean I have to watch you guys watch it?
F*** it! I am watching a documentary about ‘La La Land’ instead.
The problem is that these awards shows always say they’ll be streaming live online and then there’s always this caveat that they only tell you about on D-day. Totally makes you run home for nothing. I guess I’ll just watch the bits on youtube later.
Actually I just remembered I have Robocop that I didn’t get around to. It’s been about 30 Gary Oldman movies that I watched/rewatch in the last month or so. I supposed I could do that now.
Are you still around? Ryan and Danilo have embedded the stream in the thread and it works mighty fine. Please come join us!
Nope. Not for me. Meet you back here post Robocop.
I’m going to sleep right after the show, so see you tomorrow.
Good Robocop!