Here we go, folks. It will all be over soon. Another year almost done and done. For our final contest, please choose three things that might happen that would really turn the whole thing upside down. Predicting one of the three frontrunners doesn’t count — Shape of Water, Get Out or Three Billboards. Lady Bird is borderline for Best Picture but not for screenplay. It’s tough in a wide open year, no doubt, it all feels like No Guts, No Glory.
Here are mine:
- Three Billboards wins editing.
- Dunkirk wins Best Picture.
- Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director.
Okay, your turn!
Someone other than Gary Oldman wins Best Actor maybe Timothy C
Laurie Metcalv wind BSA
DUNKIRK wins the most Awards.
Lady Bird wins best picture.
Mystery of Love wins original song.
Sound Mixing ties between Baby Driver and Dunkirk.
iTunes finally released Live Action Shorts and Animated shorts. My nephew Emmett may not win but it should win. I read a lot about the case and how it became the catalyst for civil rights in USA. It is especially galling that Carolyn Bryant Donham has admitted she lied about Emmett Till. But I never saw it in the media until this short. It was really a f*ed world in the 60s (it still is in some sense) and I don’t understand what people mean when they want to make America great “again”. End of Rant. This is my order of preference,
Live action :
My nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of us
Dekalb Elementary (predicted winner because it is timely)
The Eleven O’clock
Animated :
Lou (my prediction)
Garden Party (Though everyone is predicting this, I think it is too macabre for the academy. But I know nothing)
Negative Space
Revolting rhymes
Dear Basketball
Actually, my NGNG should have been Shape for Cinematography
Richard Jenkins wins Supp. Actor
Margot Robbie wins Actress
Phantom Thread wins Picture
For me, BP is the toss of a coin between The Shape and Three Bullshit. I so want to go for The Shape but something is stopping me. I don’t there’s any clear stats, but perhaps it’s marginally in favour of Three Bullshit. The best stat I have for BP says the Shape will win just like it said Del Toro will win BD in December when the race didn’t even begin. The Brutally honest Academy members really indicate a huge support for it too just like there was last year for “Moonlight”. I am sceptical about choosing The Shape is because most pundits are going for it and I think they tend to be wrong.
I will stick with Three Bullshit. But I will not be that sad if it loses. I expect it lose BOS. But then again, how many films won BP with winning BD or screenplay? Hmm, I am having a second thought again. You know what? I am just too unsure about it. I am gonna crazy and go for something wild, like CMBYN. Or The Florida Project! Yes!
Phantom Thread wins Picture
Phantom Thread wins Director
Everything happens as predicted and there isn’t one shock
Dunkirk wins Best Picture and Nolan, best director
Chalamet, Best Actor
Loving Vincent, Best Animated Feature
Dunkirk or Phantom Thread win Best Pic
Willem Dafoe wins Supporting
NGNG Wish List Edition
1. Dunkirk wins Best Picture and Director
2. Christopher Plummer wins Best Supporting Actor
3. Margot Robbie wins Best Actress
4. Logan wins Best Adapted Screenplay
NGNG Shocking Twist List Edition
1. Get Out wins Best Picture and nothing else
2. Dunkirk gets completely nothing (loses Sounds and Film Editing to Baby Driver or Shape of Water or Blade Runner 2049)
3. Lou wins Best Animated Short
4. Boss Baby wins Best Animated Feature
1. Get Out wins Best Picture…and nothing else
2. Lesley Manville picks up Supporting Actress
3. Baby Driver wins Film Editing
1. Get Out takes bp, bd and screenplay
2. Laurie Metcalf for supporting actress
3. Blade Runner wins all 5 nominations
Ok – Here we go …
1. Meryl Streep – considered by many critics to be the greatest living actress on earth wins her fourth BEST ACTRESS OSCAR.
2. The Shape of Water – against all UK betting odds wins ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY.
3. Anyone else than Coco – is going to win BEST ANIMATED FEATURE.
Scott Feinberg to correctly pick 24 winners, which will net me 100 grand.
1. Loving Vincent wins Animated.
2. Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor.
3. William Dofoe wins Best Supporting.
Guys, I’m sorry. As much as I disliked Dunkirk it has a better shot of winning BP than Ladybird and 3 billboards. The majority of films that win BP are nominated in three categories: BP/Best Director and editing. With 3 Billboards failing to secure a BD nod, you can almost throw that out the window! Only 2 films since 1989 have won without having the director nominated; Driving Miss Daisy and Argo. Three Billboards for me was the best film of the year but it has something like less than a 15% chance of winning. Shape of Water was just way too weird and I think the surprise would be if it actually won BP. So I am predicting Dunkirk for the win here tonight. I wasn’t a fan of the film but history states that it has the best shot over Shape.
TSOW and Dunkirk are the only two BP nominees that have both Directing and Editing noms. Interesting how little has been made of this fact over the past few weeks…
I am sorry I don’t know if you are joking or being serious. Unfortunately I haven’t been reading up on the Awards this year like I have in the past nor have I not had the chance to see the majority of the films. But I do think this is a key element when deciding a winner as it holds up through the Academys history. Does that mean 3 Billboards has no chance at all or Call Me can’t win? Absolutely not! But the history states that this is really a 2 film race
I personally think DUNKIRK has less than a ZERO per cent chance to prevail. And prior statistics have little to do with the present year. It is quite clear it is a three film race between BILLBOARDS, THE SHAPE OF WATER and GET OUT.
In your scenario sam, Shape of Water would win in a land slide and I do think that the history of the awards means something. Moonlight was seen as a moderate surprise last year when it won but everything pointed to either a La La Land/Moonlight Best Picture winner. We will see later tonight but the percentages of Academy Award voting in the past does give Shape of Water and Dunkirk the edge. For me, the biggest shock in Award history would be if Call me by Your Name wins.
I don’t know about a landslide, and truth be said none us will ever know the extent of the win but THE SHAPE OF WATER did win, disproving the theory that it was too weird for Academy tastes. Much like the beloved Casablanca,, SHAPE’s core appeal is the romance.
It may have disproved it was too weird but one thing still holds true in Academy Award history: Never pick a film that isn’t nominated in Best Picture/Director/Editing. Shape of Water and Dunkirk were the only two that filled those three categories therefore it HAD to be one or the other!
Patrick, with all due respect, and you seem to be a really nice guy, I am not buying one iota into perceived “rules” based on the way prior awards have played out and thinking awards are predicated on specific past nominating practices. I frankly find that absurd myself.. The way I see it is GET OUT and BILLBOARDS were next up in the vote totals, followed by LADY BIRD fourth and DUNKIRK fifth. Hence I reject your position that the award had to go to SHAPE or DUNKIRK as the latter is a film I speculate finished FIFTH not second. There will never be a way to tell, but that is my position. DUNKIRK was the Number 5 film in this equation.
You are correct that we will never know the order that each film ended up in. But if you don’t look at the history of how the academy votes then you will not see the apparent trends. 1st of all, I didn’t say that they were 1/2 in voting. What I did say is that by percentage, the winner of Best Picture had to be one of those two because the winner is generally nominated in all three categories. Since 2000, only two movies have won Best Picture without this scenario: Argo (failed to get a Director nom) and Birdman (failed to get an Editing nod). 2nd, I stated from the beginning that, although it is not 100%, Best Picture comes when nominated in all 3 something like 80-85% of the time. In the 21st century that number is actually higher! It’s 89%. So the odds state that if a film is nominated for Picture/Director/Editing…it has the best chance of winning. This stat comes into play especially in 2005 when everyone and their mother predicted a Brokeback Mountain win. Brokeback failed to be nominated in Editing and lost to Crash, a movie many seem to think was a surprise. In 2005 only 2 films were nominated in all three categories: Crash and Munich. So really, Brokeback would have been a bigger surprise than Crash was. And 3rd: I absolutely hated both Shape of Water and Dunkirk. I’m sorry a woman having sex with the Creature from the Black Lagoon and a film that had 2 hours of more music then dialogue is not something I would EVER put in my all time list! If you throw away stats, the best film this year was Three Billboards…BY FAR!!! But the stat going into the show stated that Get Out and Three Billboards had little chance of winning. Sorry if you respectfully disagree…but the numbers don’t lie!!
Not sure why you continue to pose PAST RESULTS as some kind of surefire statistic that you oddly feel will dictate the results of the present year. Each voting year is a separate entity. Trends are broken. You seem to be further hung up on the BROKEBACK vs. CRASH debacle of thirteen years ago and are trying to use that as an airtight example of what can happen and will happen. It doesn’t work that way. There are now so many mitigating factors to consider with the Globes, the BAFTAs, the SAG, the PGA, the DGA, the critics’ awards etc. Every year each voter hands in their preferential ballot and the results are tabulated without concern for past trends or what voters did in 2005 or any other year. You need to get off that ludicrous statistical obsession, and take each year as an accumulation of the politics, the transforming sentiments, the level of competition, the newest revelations etc. “The numbers don’t lie” is your rallying cry, as if past numbers have some mystical power to alter the ballots that are presently being handed into Price-Waterhouse. There are so many statistical trends that have been discussed and they have been presented by Sasha and those at this site far more persuasively than your one-note framing of the SHAPE or DUNKIRK scenario you doggedly sponsor here. Voters don’t care about past trends when they cast their ballots. And the tabulators aren’t the least bit concerned about the “odds” when they add up the votes. You sound like a PC math nerd instead of a flesh and blood prognosticator whose grasp of the current race goes beyond what happened in the past. And no need to tell me how much you dislike SHAPE either, especially with that jaded assessment of how you saw the film as opposed to how many others saw the film. I saw much of it as a glorious exhibition of poetry in motion. For me BILLBOARDS was one of the year’s worst films, SHAPE among the very best. So you know what you can do with that “BY FAR” exclamation, right?
Ha! Not a single critics’ group going into these awards gave BILLBOARDS their top prize, and its reputation seems to plummet by the day. Here is my own Top 20:
1. A Quiet Passion (Great Britain) Terence Davies
2. BPM, Beats Per Minute (France) Robin Campillo
3. The Shape of Water (USA) Guillermo Del Toro
4. Lady Bird (USA) Greta Gerwig
5. Loveless (Russia) Andrey Zvyagintsev
6. The Death of Louis XIV (France/Portugal) Albert Serra
7. Call Me By Your Name (Italy) Luca Guadagnino
8. Frantz (France/Germany) Francois Ozon
9. The Lost City of Z (USA) James Gray
10. The Phantom Thread (USA) Paul Thomas Anderson
11. Coco (USA) Lee Unkrich
12. The Behemoth (China) Zhao Liang
13. A Ghost Story (USA) David Lowery
14. The Square (Sweden) Ruben Ostlund
15. The Son of Joseph (France) Eugene Green
16. The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Ireland) Yorgos Lanthimos
17. Dunkirk (USA) Christopher Nolan
18. Thelma (Norway) Joachim Trier
19. Graduation (Romania) Christian Mungiu
20. God’s Own Country (Great Britain) Frances Lee
Not joking. I don’t think Dunkirk will win, but I do think the Directing/Editing combo certainly helps TSOW.
I didn’t mean to sound rude. I am sorry about that. I picked Dunkirk to win in my regular predictions because I think Shape of Water is too weird for the Academy to choose as a Best Picture winner. Saying that, both should be considered the favorites, in my opinion. But my heart wants 3 Billboards. I think its the best film I have seen since Spotlight and one of the best I have seen in a theater overall in 10 years.
TSOW has also Original Screenplay. 13 nominations. Any given year, it would be the frontrunner…
… but it isn’t. The locked win at Direction gives the feel that it is warranted an important reward, so people seems to be not urged to award it anything else beyond some technical here or there.
1. Warren Beatty & Faye Dunaway announce wrong winner.
2. Triple tie on Best Original Screenplay – LADY BIRD & GET OUT & THREE BILLBOARDS
3. Travolta misspelling Kumail Nanjiani or Scott Neustadter
‘Phantom Thread’ sews up picture, director and score.
1. Nolan as Best Director
2. Chalamet as Best Actor
3. Get Out wins nothing
1. Three Billboards wins 5. Picture, Actress, Supp. Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing
2. Dunkirk goes emptyhanded
3. Lesley Manville upsets both Metcalf and Janney
bonus: Loving Vincent wins Animated.
Best Director: Greta Gerwig
Best Film Editing: I, Tonya
Best Costume Design: Beauty & the Beast
The Shape of Water winning Cinematography, Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing
Loveless in Foreign Language Film
Margot Robbie in Lead Actress
Something significant just happened: Joyce Eng, who had had The Shape of Water all this time, finally switched to Three Billboards herself… I don’t know, if there was still strong talk of backlash, would she really have done this? Would so many others have done it earlier? I don’t think so. (She could still be wrong, obviously – easily. But it has to be a good sign for Three Billboards, if it means anything. These last minute switches for picture – like when Tom O’Neill switched to Spotlight, or when Sasha switched to Moonlight late on as well, though I’m not sure if her switch was also in the very last days or not – seem to be significant, in general. It’s not the same for the other categories, but when it comes to picture they seem to be good omens.) I guess she was waiting for the Independent Spirit Awards. Perhaps it’s also significant that she didn’t switch to Get Out, instead…
http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-2018/picture/
In other news, I’m switching my official prediction for costume design to Phantom Thread. I’m keeping my Awards Daily entry as Beauty and the Beast, because I don’t have any real upsets predicted otherwise, and it’s a solid stats alternative (as is The Shape of Water), but I don’t want my score for my official predictions to go down because I went for the upset in a category where almost nobody else did. I’d rather get it wrong because I chickened out… I will refer back to this thread later, if need be – I’m not sure how many people are going to see this in time. Hopefully, at least enough to back up that I actually made this switch before the Oscars, if there’s doubt. 🙂 Not that it’s that important, but I like to be able to back up everything I say, even the minor things. I hate being accused of rewriting history.
I haven’t seen “Beauty”, but this is a solid switch. The costumes in PT were superlative.
Yeah, that’s part of it – I didn’t like the costumes in Beauty much at all. It was (and, for the contest here, still is) just a stats pick, that, for me. (PD nod, Phoenix win, more closely resembling typical winners…) But I didn’t like the costumes in Fantastic Beasts much either, so who knows?!… The costumes in PT were cool, but I didn’t feel like they were so good that it was necessarily unbeatable. 🙂
Will it help to tell you that the pundits with scores of 11/14 and 10/14 all say Phantom Thread? ; )
Of course they all said Jackie last year (except for Feinberg who got it right. Even HE says PT this year. lol)
Thanks for the info. Fingers crossed.
🙂 I didn’t even check, that’s how sure I was this was the case. I think they can all be wrong, nevertheless – that it’s possible, I mean -, because I think there’s a good chance they’re not aware of at least one of the stats that make me and Hal Jordan think Beauty might win (though it’s more likely that they’re not aware, but they’re still right that PT will win, of course), so I’ll keep my AD contest entry as it is… (Also because I don’t think I’ll be one away from 1st place if I’m this wrong about Beauty and the Beast having real chances. I’d need to be a lot more in-form than that, intuition-wise and analysis-wise, for me to stand a chance at getting so close to the win, I suspect. And, to have a shot at winning – which is the only thing that matters here, given that there’s only one prize -, I can’t just predict all of the favorites, like everybody else, and simply rely on having a miraculous year for the shorts, where I predict 2-3 upsets. So, I need to get at least one of these right. Which I most likely won’t. The upset will probably come somewhere else, where I couldn’t have predicted it anyway, at least not via stats, like I can here, should it happen.) I have Phantom Thread at both of the other important contests I’ve entered, so it’s not the end of the world if I get it wrong here.
Claudiu here are my final picks
Pic: Three Billboards
Dir: Shape
Actor: Oldman
Actress: McDormand
S. Actress: JUanney
S. Actor: Rockwell
A. Screen: CMBYN
O. Screen: Three Billboards
Editing: Baby Driver (here) Dunkirk (Contests)
Cinema: Blade Runner/Deakins
Costumes: Phantom Thread
Makeup: Darkest House
Prod Design: Shape
Score: Shape
Song: Remember Me
Sound Edit: Dunkirk
Sound Mix: Baby (Here) Dunkirk (Contests)
Visual Effects: Blade Runner
Animated Feature: Coco
Foreign Lang.: Fantastic Woman
Doc Feature: Icarus
Ani Short: Basketball
Live Short: Dekalb
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Best of luck to ya tonight! May the best stats win.
Like I said, definitely expect you to crush me in the shorts – maybe my chance to not do worse than you is in editing/sound mixing and doc. feature, and to somehow get one of the shorts right. 🙂 But you’re favorite overall, for sure!…
Ha! we’ll see. Like you there is some risks to try to break from the pack to win the AD prize. Otherwise my “real” choices are Dunkirk for Editing and Sound Mix.
I figured… 🙂 So Faces Places winning documentary and my getting one of the shorts right is my chance to tie, and I need both documentary and at least two of the shorts – which won’t happen – to pull ahead.
This is the Oscars. Anything can happen.
🙂
Aren’t ya glad you went back on Costumes? ; )
Evidently. Sucks I didn’t do the same for animated short…
WOW! You are hitting a hot streak tonight. Awesome. Congrats. (So jealous) AND I have to cheer you on for the rest as our ballots are the same from hete on out. That would mean you get 23/24
Eng had not updated her picks for weeks. She had Shape pre-bafta.
Yes – she didn’t update them because she didn’t intend to do that. 🙂 She came on a podcast just a few days ago, and she was still predicting Shape then – she said so, verbatim. She was asked and she said she was predicting Shape.
I am still stubbornly keeping TSOW as my pick since it has BP, BD and Editing noms. That is the stat I plan to live and die by 😛
🙂 A very valid pick as well, like I said… Can’t only predict favorites!
Though it should be said Phantom Thread also has the first two of those nominations, and there doesn’t seem to be any correlation between an editing nod and a costume design win. 🙂 (At least looking at the 7-8 years I checked, the most recent ones.)
But it has the production design nod (and likely win), which is why it’s another strong alternative to PT, just like Beauty, because PTA’s movie doesn’t have that.
According to voters on AwardsDaily, straight and gay and of all age ranges, “Mystery of Love” will win Best Song tonight. If so, CMBYN could win an unusual Screenplay + Song Oscar combination, perhaps appropriately for a film that appealed to the intellect as well as emotion. I checked to see how many other times a film has won these two Oscars together. The answer is only five times:
2009: Slumdog Millionaire / “Jai Ho”
2004: LOTR: ROTK / “Into the West”
1970: Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid / “Raindrops Keep Fallin’ on My Head”
1959: Gigi / “Gigi”
1945: Going My Way / “Swinging on a Star”
Will CMBYN / “Mystery of Love” join this illustrious list? Is the song or the film really big enough? We will find out soon! Fingers crossed.
Sufjan Stevens probably isn’t “popular enough” to perform tonight a la Sumi Jo (sp?) for the song from Youth a couple years ago. They can have Miguel sing the song from Coco, and like Sam Smith in the year year of Sumi Jo and other better choices, they went with the popular performer. Or because the Oscars love to award original musicals in this category just as they did last year with part of the same songwriting team nominated for this year’s song from Greatest Showman, they could definitely go with that. Then again, just like this will hopefully be Roger Deakins’ year with his 18th nomination, it might just be Dianne Warren’s year too for with her 9th nomination for the song from Marshall. I can’t think of any reason that links with the Academy’s usual habits in the song category to think that Sufjan Stevens could win. I love the song but I don’t see it happening. But actually, I love al the songs except for the one from the Greatest Showman. My fingers are crossed for Coco, but only because of the way it’s performed in the movie, not Miguel’s version.
Except Sufjan *is* performing with St Vincent and Chris Thiele.
1. Somehow Best Picture gets fucked up again and this time it’s either Beatty’s or Dunaway’s fault.
2. Someone shouts “Hanoi Jane” during Best Actor.
3. 8 different films win the Major Oscars (LB, TSOW, GO, CMBYN, DH, 3B, TFP, IT)
Mudbound – adapted screenplay
Willem Dafoe – Supporting Actor
Call Me By Your Name wins Best Picture
Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor
Sufjan Stevens wins Original Song
But really……
The Shape of Water wins cinematography
Mudbound wins screenplay
Phantom Thread wins score
Breadwinner for animated feature
Daniel Day Lewis for best actor
Lesley Manville for supporting actress
Sasha, thanks for your site, I have been visiting for over 10 years.
My money is on ‘Three Billboards’ and Martin McDonough….
Timothée Chalamet’s awesome family rules the night by wearing matching pirate costumes and distributing peaches to guests during breaks.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/newpix/2018/03/04/06/49CCD72E00000578-0-image-m-132_1520145114949.jpg
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/newpix/2018/03/04/08/49CCD61000000578-5459695-Group_hug_The_Chalamet_clan_engaged_in_a_big_hug_with_Call_Me_By-a-1_1520152121680.jpg
I prefer Elio’s family tbh
Word. I have lots of “favorite” shots, but for me the lingering mind-blower is the daytime outdoor shot with the four of them at the table and Elio declaring he won’t wear the gift shirt until he tries it on and Oliver approves. Oliver sunk way down in his chair, looking so laid back, all four of them fully at ease. Whenever I see that shot I think to myself: Why couldn’t it go on like this for the rest of their lives? (Jack to Ennis on the mountaintop looking up at the stars: “It could be like this, just like this, always.”)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c3e742771074fa4d544ab0a18d6784aaeaa9a5e196703fa8dda6fc29071db21.jpg
Thanks very much for this, Bobby
CMBYN – best picture
Lesley Manville – supporting actress
“Mystery of Love” – best song
PTA takes Director
BR2049 sweeps techs
Lesley Manville wins supporting actress
The Post wins Best Picture
Willem Dafoe wins Best Supporting Actor
The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber) wins Best Adapted Screenplay
Dunkirk takes picture
Nolan takes Director
Metcalf takes supporting actress
If NGNG means “not likely, but still quite possible”:
Revolting Rhymes wins Animated Short. (It’s so entertaining.)
Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor.
Dunkirk wins Best Score.
Gerwig best director
Kaluuya best actor
Mannville best supporting actress
Michael Mann awarded 2007 Best Picture retroactively for Miami Vice
1. Mudbound wins Best Cinematograpy.
2. Logan wins Best Adapted Screenplay (Sorry CMBYN stans).
3. Phantom Thread wins Best Picture.
My NGNG pick is legit because I’m actually predicting it everywhere in my official predictions (AD, Gold Derby, etc): I, Tonya for Editing.
Saoirse Ronan, Best Actress
Timothee Chalamet, Best Actor
Call Me By Your Name, Best Picture
3 for Lady Bird. Picture, Actress, Screenplay.
It’s in the cards!
1. Lady Bird wins Best Picture
2. Timothée Chalamet wins Best Actor
3. Baby Driver wins Best Editing, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Baby Driver for editing is definitely not NGNG. It’s the BAFTA winner and it tied for the Critics Choice.
1. On Body and Soul wins Foreign Language Film
2. Rachel Morrison wins Cinematography
3. I, Tonya wins Editing
Here we go!
It will all be over soon. Another year almost done. #Oscars No Guts, No Glory (NGNG) 2018 Edition:
1. BEAUTY AND THE BEAST wins Costume Design
2. Acting race upset: Here’s hoping Timothee Chalamet, SALLY HAWKINS, Manville and Dafoe to win
3. Roger Deakins still a bridesmaid once again for the 14th time
1. Metcalf pulls the upset
2. I, Tonya wins editing
3. Kobe Bryant wins an oscar
Dunkirk Wins nothing
Phantom thread wins original score
Lady bird wins picture
Greenwood for Score
Dunkirk for Best Picture
Stand… for Song
5 Best Picture nominees end the night with zero wins
The Breadwinner takes Animated Feature
Mudbound wins adapted screenplay
Call Me losing everything would inspire one of the great AD forum meltdowns
1. Dunkirk wins Best Picture
2. Defoe wins Best Supporting Actor
3. Hawkins wins Best Actress
Saoirse wins Best Actress!
Laurie wins Best Supp Actress!
Timothee wins Best Actor!
CMBYN wins best picture
CMBYN wins best actor
Nolan wins best director
1. Lady Bird shut out
2. Get Out wins Best Picture
3. Phantom Thread wins five of its six categories including director
i like these!
I’d be fine with this
Okay then…
‘Call me by your name’ is shut out. Logan wins Adapted.
SoW collects BP, Actress & a few technicals. On top of BD and the other ‘known’ qualities.
Technicals are divided up by SoW & Dunkirk.
Coco wins Song and Animated.
— Three Billboards takes only Best Actress and loses everything else
— Strong Island wins Best Documentary
— The Academy president will come out and apologize for the nomination of ‘Dear Basketball’ and the film will be disqualified live on air
NGNG
Dunkirk wins best picture
Deakins loses AGAIN
Get Out gets shut out
Shape of water ONLY gets Director or gets shut out like gangs of New York
Dafoe wins Supporting Actor
CMBYN wins Best Picture.
Victoria and Abdul wins both Costume and Make Up.
Octavia Spencer wins Supporting Actress.
These are both my NGNG picks and my preferences:
– “Baby Driver” and “Call Me By Your Name” win every category in which they’re nominated
– “Dunkirk” wins nothing
– “Wonder” wins Best Makeup & Hairstyling
The Shape of Water wins Original Screenplay.
Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor.
Blade Runner 2049 wins both sound awards.
1. Sally Hawkins pulls an “Adrien Brody” and wins Best Actress
2. Three Billboards wins Supporting Actor, but for Harrelson instead of Rockwell.
3. Mary J. Blige wins 2 Oscars for Acting and Best Song.
I don’t think I’d consider Sally winning as “pulling an Adrien Brody” Margot Robbie maybe.
Sally Hawkins didn’t win any of the big four acting awards (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, or Critics Choice) just like Adrien Brody. The only awards both actors won were from the National Society of Film Critics and the Boston Society of Film Critics.
1. Watu Wote for live action short (its in 5th on goldderby so it counts right? Even if it’s only because it’s alphabetically last)
2. All technical awards (I don’t count score and song) are won by non best picture nominees: Baby Driver 3, BR2049 2-3 and the other 2-3 from some combination of Apes, Wonder, B&tB, V&A
3. Shape of Water sweeps winning both an acting award and at least 5 technical awards along with director and picture.
None of those are gonna happen but hey that’s what this is all about right?
1) Lady Bird does a Grand Hotel winning Best Picture and nothing else
2) Willem Dafoe wins Best Supporting Actor
3) Phantom Thread wins Best Score
1) Jordan Peele wins best director so Get Out wins three Oscars
2) Baby Driver wins all the categories it’s nominated in
3) Dunkirk wins best production design
Animated Short: Watu Wrote
Doc Short: Traffic Stop
Live Short: Revolting Rhymes
1. Shape wins Cinematography, Production Design & Costumes
2. Mudbound wins Adapted Screenplay
3. I, Tonya wins Editing
Janney/Metcalf tie
Academy Award Winner Diane Warren
Netflix wins 3 awards (2 documentaries and something for Mudbound)
1. Dunkirk wins Best Picture
2. Timothee Chalamet for Best Actor
3. The Breadwinner wins Best Animated Feature
Editing – I, Tonya – Tatiana S. Riegel
Actor – Phantom Thread – Daniel Day-Lewis
Makeup – Wonder – Arjen Tuiten
1. Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director
2. Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig tie for Best Screenplay
3. Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty are calling the wrong film AGAIN
1. “Call Me By Your Name” wins ‘best picture’.
2. Willem Dafoe wins with Sam Rockwell.
3. “Dunkirk” wins nothing.
1) BR2049 sweeps
2) Shape of Water wins only Director
3) Get Out Shut Out
1) Blade Runner wins most awards
2) Lady Bird best pic
3) Beatty and Dunaway screw up again
1. Get Out Wins Best Picture
2. Saorsie Ronan Wins Best Actress
3. The Shape of Water Wins Best costume design
1) Mudbound wins Cinematography (history would be made)
2) Jonny Greenwood wins Best Original Score for Phantom Thread
3) Baby Driver wins for Best Sound Mixing/ Sound Editing
The Post wins Best Picture
Margot Robbie wins Best Actress
Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor
P.S. I know latter two are the No2 picks of most everyone BUT considering they haven’t won anything big and the frontrunners of their respective categories swept, them winning still qualifies as NGNG material to me.
Daniel Kaluuya wins Best Actor
Christopher Plummer wins Best Supporting Actor
And the OSCAR for the best work of the whole Oscar race season goes to the founder and the very best editor of AWARDS DAILY – SASHA STONE, the one and only, thank you, thank you !!!
1) Baby Driver wins both sound categories.
2) Chalamet takes Best Actor
3) CMBYN wins best song.
1.) Willem Dafoe wins Supporting Actor
2.) Aaron Sorkin wins Adapted Screenplay
3.) Last Jedi wins (a) sound award(s) and/or VFX
If Sorkin wins the Call Me cultists would lose their fucking minds
Hahahaha. XD
So would the people who think James Ivory is a legend and should have an Oscar.
Picture – CMBYN
Supp Actress – Manville
Costume Design – SoW
* One of the big eight categories (Picture, Director, the two screenplay awards, the four acting awards) ends in a tie.
* PT Anderson wins Best Director
* Meryl Streep wins Best Actress
Well, here I am dears! After speaking to many academy voters (and psychics) about this horribly scattered year, I have 3 anonymous ballots to share with you. Again, this may be proof that we’re all very much WRONG about the acting races and the stupid conspiracy theories about why Three Billboards/Shape of Water/Get Out are winning.
BALLOT ONE – THE ACTOR
BEST PICTURE: Lady Bird
I didn’t bother ranking them. I’ve never understood the preferential system. Just pick the one you want and move on. 2017 sucked. The fact that I’m picking a movie about going thrift shopping should prove what a train wreck it was. Shape of Water bored me to tears, Three Billboards Inside (?!) Someplace, Minnesota was a pointless dribble into nothing. Get Out- I sure did, twenty minutes into it.
BEST ACTOR: Gary Oldman
Only because everyone else is picking him. I think he’s overrated. At the Oscar’s Luncheon, he ordered his steak with mushroom cutlets well done- and I found that very distasteful to the chefs. I almost scratched his name off my ballot but then he complimented my Chanel bag.
BEST ACTRESS: Margot Robbie
Dynamite. The best of the bunch. Why didn’t she win the Golden Globe? Ronan was so boring – even though I have her film as the best, doesn’t mean SHE was. Robbie became Tonya Harding.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer
When I first went into the movie All the Money in the World, I thought I was going to be watching a movie about Donald Trump’s tax return. Guess I was wrong on that.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Allison Janney
She was wonderful! And as a parent, let me say- she was not abusive to her daughter. She was a tad strict, but I’ve done MUCH worse to my children. Why do you think I prefer to be anonymous?
BEST DIRECTOR: Christopher Nolan, Dunkrik
Obviously. Why would I pick the dude that directed the fish movie? I was waiting for Sally Hawkins to just filet the damn thing.
BALLOT TWO – THE PRODUCER
BEST PICTURE: 1. Lady Bird, 2. Get Out, 3. Dunkirk, 4. Phantom Thread, 5. The Post, 6. Shape of Water, 7. Darkest Hour, 8. Call Me By Your Name——–9. Three Billboards
HATED The McDormand movie. HATED IT!!! So horrible. So ugly. Crash rebooted basically. Lady Bird and Get Out, now those were worthy.
BEST ACTOR: Gary Oldman
Even though he’ll most likely be in jail for sexual harassment by the time his name is called, I prefer him over the overrated Tom Hanks in The Post. Hanks always plays the same role.
BEST ACTRESS: Meryl Streep
Her best work in decades. She nailed it. And this time without makeup or wig tricks. Just naturally herself. Better then her work in Sophie’s Choice. She made me BELIEVE she worked in Washington. That’s not easy, especially THESE days when I can’t believe ANYONE in the Republican Party actually is smart enough to hold their jobs.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: I abstain
No one was worthy in this lineup. No one. And I didn’t see The Florida Project. A friend invited me, and I flat out refused! I hate anything about Florida- it was recently named the WORST state in America. There, I said it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laurie Metcalf
Loved her in Roseanne, so I’m picking her here. Just realized Tom Hanks wasn’t nominated for The Post- oh well, VOTE and learn.
BEST DIRECTOR: Paul Thomas Anderson
I just picked him because I’ve slept with him before and he said the next time he was nominated, I had to select him. Too bad it was this year- the time when I would have picked Nolan. But a promise is a promise- right Mr. Trump?
BALLOT THREE – The Screenwriter
BEST PICTURE: 1. Get Out 9. Three Billboards
Nothing else matters. Get Out was the best thing I’ve seen in the past 50 years. I’ve been doing this a LONG time.
BEST SCREENPLAY: Get Out
Duh.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Molly’s Game
James Ivory is 200 years old. He doesn’t know how to write a good gay film and his past work was so dull, I walked out every time. I was supposed to write Howards End! SO this is also possibly out of spite.
BEST ACTOR: Gary Oldman
Didn’t see Darkest Hour, but did happen to catch Dracula on TV the other day. Wow he’s great. And him and Winona should have kept dating after their falling out on the set.
BEST ACTRESS: Margot Robbie
I always pick the most “fresh” face of the bunch. I don’t think McDormand belongs here. Isn’t she a man? Best Actor would do her better.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Woody Harrelson
He was the best thing about that 3 PillBoards Inside Evanston, Montana. Everything else was just “ugh”.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mary J Blige
She can SANG! I love her work. Didn’t see Mudbound, probably won’t. But loved “Not Gon’ Cry” from Waiting to Exhale.
BEST DIRECTOR: Jordan Peele, Get Out
The obvious choice. I say he makes history Sunday- first black director ever.
What a troll.
Gail Withers is a playful friend of the site. Not a troll.
Gail, how does my future look for the remainder of 2018? Do I have a future?
Hi Ryan, and thank you SO much dear! Happy Oscars. I actually think Shape of Water MIGHT just swim up and grab it now, instead of Lady Bird FLYING away with it.
Your future for 2018 looks wonderful!!! I see many things happening for you- including
1. Working for an established, well thought out awards site, run by a woman who really knows her stuff.
2. Coming into some money, between the range of $5 – 20 in the next week. Lucky thing you!
3. Attending a Holiday party in the month of December.
See, I told you I’m a great psychic- you can’t fool me, I’m a Grandma 🙂
1. Phantom Thread wins Best Picture
2. Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director
3. Loving Vincent wins Best Animated Feature
1. Greta Gerwig wins BD
2. Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor
3. Mystery of Love wins Best Song
1. LADY BIRD (or GET OUT) wins Best Picture – and, nothing else
2. THE INSULT wins Foreign Language
3. Christopher Nolan for Best Director
To me what would really “turn things upside down” would be major wins by the old guard, the old, established white guys that nobody seems to feel should be there anymore, in this new world. The world just might break in two if these things came to pass. So, speaking with my best “woke, me too” hat on:
PTA for Director, a long established white guy who made a movie about an old white stuffed shirt with old school DDL in the lead role. Seems like the new blood feels that it’s time for people like PTA to move on (JLaw metaphorically said it herself).
Dunkirk for Best Picture (Phantom Thread fits here too): White man’s problems, white man’s history. And from 70 plus years past!
Christopher Plummer Best Supporting Actor: Elite Old Hollywood playing Elite Old America, and a parlor trick from an elite old white director. Next!
PTA is the old guard. lol Shoot me in the face.
PTA has been nominated for eight Academy Awards. Look at his filmography. Not exactly about woke or me too issues. Hardly. That’s all I’m saying. He’s a well decorated white male that’s been recognized in the film industry for 25 years now. He’s old guard compared to what’s happening right now. Just ask JLaw.
PTA who makes weird art films is old guard. That’s funny.
1. On Body and Soul for Foreign Film
2. Willem Dafoe wins Best Supporting Actor
3. Wonder in Make-up
CMBYN – Best picture
Dafoe – Best Supp Actor
Rachel Morrison – Best cinematography
The most any picture wins is two:
Blade Runner 2049 (Cinematography, Visual Effects)
Coco (Animated Film, Song)
Phantom Thread (Costumes, Score)
Dunkirk (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)
Darkest Hour (Actor, Makeup)
3 Billboards (Actress, Supporting Actor)
Shape of Water (Director, Production Design)
Get Out (Picture, Original Screenplay)
1. Best Picture is the movie that doesn’t win anything else. (Either Get Out or Ladybird)
2. Garden Party for Animated Short
3. Mystery of Love for Original Song
Not sure if Baby Driver for Editing and Blade Runner for Visual Effect can be considered NGNG.
Best Actor upset.
I, Tonya in Editing.
Mystery of Love wins Song.
the post and phantom thread go empty handed
1. Get out wins best picture director and original screenplay
2. Logan wins adapted screenplay
3. Blade runner 2049 wins visual effects
3. Roger Deakins loses again
2. Denzel Day-Lewis wins his 4th Best Actor Oscar !!!!!!!!!!
1. *Tie for BEST PICTURE – Three Billboards of Ebbing Missouri and Get Out*
Sorry but your number 1 won’t happen (they don’t allow ties for bp)
Yeah, I read somewhere (I can’t remember where) that for BP the computer breaks a tie. A BP tie can’t even happen.
Yeah a computer does it probably in that a computer counts all the votes… It’s just whoever has the most number 1 votes wins the tie breaker.
Yeah pretty much my reason for doing that.
Rubs hands, licks lips:
Call Me By Your Name: Best Film
Timothée Chalamet: Best Actor
Richard Jenkins: Best Supporting Actor
1. CMBYN goes 4/4 winning Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Song.
2. Phantom Thread wins Costume Design and Original Score
3. Get Out, Lady Bird, and The Post go empty handed.
Phantom Thread wins Original Score
Nolan wins Director
Victoria & Abdul wins Make Up
1. The “stats” prove utterly useless and Call Me By Your Name wins all four Oscars for which it is nominated.
2. Get Out joins The Post as the only two BP nominees to go home empty-handed.
3. Lady Bird wins Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay.
1. Hans Zimmer wins Best Original Score.
2. Rachel Morrison wins Best Cinematography.
3. Nolan wins Best Director.
1. Picture: Dunkirk (or maybe Call Me by Your Name)
2. Supporting Actress: Leslie Manville
3. Song: Diane Warren, Stand Up for Something
4. Actor: Timothy Chalamet
5. A tie (2 winners) in a category
In response to one of the comments before me, I thought “Garden Party” is considered a front runner for Animated Short? I saw all five and no doubt “Garden Party” was the best one in my opinion.
Thank you, enjoy the show!
1) Baby Driver wins Editing
2) Mudbound wins Cinematography
3) Garden Party wins Animated Short
Phantom Thread wins Score
Garden Party wins Animated Short
Roger Deakins loses yet again
Dunkirk wins Best Picture
Blade Runner 2049 wins 5 Oscars
Beauty and the Beast wins Production Design
1) Baby Driver wins editing
2) Beauty and the Beast wins Costumes
3) Mudbound wins Cinematography
4) Kimmel attempts a self-deprecating joke about sexual harassment that goes horribly flat
Shape of Water wins Best Picture – You’ve made me stop believing that it can, so guts…
Del Toro wins Best Director
Sally Hawkins wins Best Actress
Lesley Manville wins Supporting Actress
Daniel Kaluuya wins Best Actor
Richard Jenkins wins Supporting Actor
I, Tonya wins editing
Mudbound wins cinematography
Daniel Day-Lewis win his 4th best actor award
The Post wins best picture
Loving Vincent wins best animated film
Someone says fuck on stage
Gary Oldman gets booed
A protester gets on stage
Strong Island wins documentary
Baby Driver sweeps the categories its nominated in
1. CMBYN wins Best Picture
2. Mudbound wins Cinematography
3. I, Tonya wins Editing
Dunkirk or Lady bird win director
Call me by your name wins picture
Baby driver wins editing and both sound awards.
Willem Dafoe wins
Jordan Peele wins BP, BD, OS
Darkest Hour wins the most Oscars
1.) Nolan wins Director
2.) Harrelson wins Supp Actor
3.) Lady Bird wins Orig Screenplay
Director: Christopher Nolan – Darkest Hour
Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Cinematography – Mudbound
Chris Nolan winning for Darkest Hour WOULD be an upset, for sure.
hahahaha I totally meant for Dunkirk! Good catch!
Picture – Dunkirk
Director – Greta Gerwig
Actor – Daniel Day Lewis