Better late than never, friends! I intended to post these earlier this week, but I got behind and ended up having to pull an all-nighter to get it done. So I offer my apologies.
I’m happy to bring back Awards Daily’s Statsgasm prediction models for a fifth year. Although there are a number of “locked” categories (especially in acting), there are a number of races that are still very much up in the air, including a Best Picture race that has to be the craziest Best Picture race since 2000 and a Original Screenplay race that is so competitive, it may or may not have any bearing on Best Picture.
To do a very brief review, Statsgasm utilizes small sample (penalized logistic) regression models to predict winners in 21 categories. Regression analysis is the underlying methodology for the prediction models used by Ben Zauzmer at The Hollywood Reporter and the venerable FiveThirtyEight.com, although there will still be differences in our results based on variable selection, ad-hoc adjustments, and other factors. In other words, there’s some art to go along with the science behind these models. If you’d like to have a more wonky but still guided tour on regression analysis, please review my earlier writings on the subject here.
As always, I must deliver the following comment before I reveal all 21 of Statsgasm’s predictions: probability by its nature deals with possibilities and not absolutes, so I never expect Statsgasm to go a perfect 21/21, and neither should you. In terms of probability, only 90% and above should really be considered a “lock,” and although there are quite a few categories that meet that high standard this year, there are many that don’t, including two where Statsgasm effectively calls the race a total free-for-all where all the nominees are rated to have less than a 30% chance of winning. Statistical prediction models are dependent on both the quality of the data being used as well as the skill and expertise of the model builder. But data alone can only take you so far in predicting the Oscars well.
That being said, here are Statsgasm’s predictions for the 90th Academy Awards:
(NOTE: The following Tableau dashboard detailing Statsgasm’s prediction results is best viewed on a desktop computer)
Overall, Statsgasm is predicting a very spread the wealth Oscar night where no film is predicted to win more than three Oscars. But there’s a lot of uncertainty, with at least four total tossup categories that will make or break your Oscar pools this year. Plus, there’s bound to be an out-of-left-field winner or two like there is every year.
Please feel free to ask any questions you may have in comments, or reach out to me directly! And happy predicting! Be sure to get your predictions in for AD’s contest if you haven’t done so yet!