It’s odd that so many observers are concluding they know beyond any doubt who is going to win Best Actor so early in the season. It’s only September. Those out of the gate are coming in hot with their takes. It’s hard to tell at this stage if that’s good or bad. The films and performances they’re talking about are for movies that haven’t even been released yet.
Each contender will be writing their “Oscar story” starting now. Every contender and winner will have one. Sometimes it’s a comeback story, sometimes it’s a “they finally win” story. Sometimes it’s an underdog story. But the story must build from momentum, not from what a critic or pundit or blogger thinks. Sure, they can guess but I’m reading stuff like so-and-so is winning for sure. I guess it doesn’t matter what people say. We’re not curing cancer here. We’re just wildly guessing, hoping to get it right.
Last year, almost at this exact time, I wrote a piece called Gary Oldman and his challengers. It was a bit all over the place in terms of predictions, with a few names up front, like Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread. But it was clear that around this time last year it was Gary Oldman’s to lose. This year, there isn’t a frontrunner like that in the Best Actor race. There are a few contenders who seem strong heading in, but we’re missing one big one and that’s Christian Bale as Dick Cheney for Vice.
Oldman had an urgency about his win. The first reason was that he was overdue. The second reason was the his work in Darkest Hour, despite the chattering online, was unequivocal. There wasn’t going to be a better performance. That was pretty clear. But it was more than that. It was how Oldman acted “on the campaign trail.” He didn’t just take it for granted that he was winning. He was out there, doing interviewers, talking to people, showing himself to be kind and grateful for the awards so far. He was building his momentum and Oscar story from the perspective of someone who did not believe he was going to win, but also the perspective of someone who knew it was now or never to reach for it.
One of the Oscar stories this year, so far, is Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born. His directorial debut alongside one of his best performances makes him a top contender for the big prize. Will they give him Best Actor if the movie doesn’t win Best Picture? It’s easy to see him winning at SAG, though, isn’t it? The combo of the movie’s popularity with actors and his own career trajectory seems like a pretty good Oscar story right now.
But he’s got competition. Viggo Mortensen has a pretty good Oscar story, the least of which is that he appears to have gained a lot of weight to play Tony Lip in Green Book. He’s also an actor who has transformed himself again and again to play a variety of different characters. But the real reason he’s such a strong contender is the warmth for his character and the film overall. That could prove too much to resist — if Green Book heads into the race as one of the top contenders for Best Picture, his chances double. But we’re not there yet. He is about as overdue, if not more so, than Cooper is.
And then there’s Willem Dafoe playing Van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate. Talk about your Oscar story. Dafoe came really close last year with The Florida Project. It was clear that he was at a stage in his career where people really want to reward him for such a long and as such unrewarded career. The only problem is that often Best Actor is married to Best Picture. That has been true of all of the winners for Best Actor since they expanded the ballot, save for Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart.
Gary Oldman–Darkest Hour
Casey Affleck–Manchester by the Sea
Leo DiCap–The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne–Theory of Everything
Matthew McConaughey–Dallas Buyers Club
Daniel Day-Lewis–Lincoln
Jean DuJardin–The Artist
Colin Firth–The King’s Speech
Jeff Bridges–Crazy Heart
Of these past winners, two of them were featured in Best Picture winners.
Speaking of Best Picture, one of the strongest contenders right now is First Man, Damien Chazelle’s biopic about Neil Armstrong. Ryan Gosling plays Armstrong so perfectly, and the entire movie is just his face, sometimes just his eyes. Gosling takes us into a man who was mostly opaque, someone who did not show his grief even to his wife. It’s a marvelous work and his best performance.
That’s before you get to Christian Bale. We hold a spot for him because we know great he is, and we know how great of a director Adam McKay is. But no one has seen the movie yet. Does Bale have an Oscar story? He doesn’t really because he’s already won an Oscar, for supporting. A win for him in lead would be because he turned in an unequivocal performance.
That’s five already. The way punditry works online is that we tend to pack the list of frontrunners with our favorites. But we don’t know if we’re right, or wrong. We just take a guess. There are only five slots. But there are other possibilities — like John David Washington, who is the lead in BlackKklansman. If that is a film that will get nominated for Best Picture and Best Director, there is a good chance he will be nominated.
There are two old timers, neither of whom have won an Oscar for Best Actor and that’s the esteemed Robert Redford, whose Oscar story could bring down the house playing a bank robber in The Old Man & The Gun, and Clint Eastwood for The Mule, playing a guy who grew flowers but was also a drug mule. They’re both playing outlaws and both are in the last gasp of their careers. Neither can be counted out.
The race is so packed that how does one even begin to fit in the well deserving Ethan Hawke for his work in First Reformed? Hawke plays a priest who must decide what to do with the information and realization that all of this is about to end and that it’s the fault of humans. Paul Schrader’s First Reformed is without question one of the best films of the year but the Oscar race is a funny thing. It rarely captures the right movies. It captures the ones who work the hardest to be paid attention to.
Lucas Hedges has two performances, which will likely split his the vote among his supporters. He plays a young gay writer whose parents force him into gay conversion therapy in Boy Erased, and he plays a former drug addict fighting for sobriety and working through his relationship with his mother in Ben is Back. Both are great but how to decide?
Hugh Jackman plays Gary Hart in The Front Runner, Jason Reitman’s second film this year. It’s a great performance but it will just have to come down to how much voters like the movie overall. Then there is Matthew McConaughey in White Boy Rick and of course, last but not least, Chadwick Boseman in Black Panther. But as you can see, things start to get very packed as the season wears on. Picks tend to revolve around films that people like a lot, and the performance gets dragged along with the film — or vice-versa. They like the performance so much the film gets dragged along. Either way, Picture and Actor are forever linked.
It’s probably still too early to talk about the Golden Globes. Do any of these I’ve mentioned qualify for a Musical/Comedy category? Well, Green Book might — and A Star is Born might — and BlackKklansman might. I’ve heard yes and no on all of these. But whichever one does break through, that could give an acting contender a chance to win where they might not ordinary get one. Or if Cooper and Mortensen are both in comedy — then someone in drama could win and run with the momentum there.
Either way, it’s still too early to call winners. You have to wait until at least everything has been seen. And it hasn’t been. Tick tock. Tick tock.
Bradley Cooper is walking away with an Oscar somewhere next year. I don’t think A Star is Born will get Best Picture, or Director, and adapted screenplay feels like a possibility, but maybe not. So, I think he’ll take Best Actor.
Which raises the next question… has there been a time where an actor has directed themselves to an acting Oscar win?
Of the performances I’ve seen, I have a feeling that First Man is going to be over-predicted. I didn’t enjoy the film At. All. It’ll get nominated for things, but Gosling doesn’t have a chance in heck of getting a win.
Personally, I’d love Ethan Hawke to win – I haven’t seen First Reformed yet (thanks to no release schedule in Australia), but he’s had a stellar year and really deserves an award.
There have been two times an actor has directed himself to an Oscar, Laurence Oliver in Hamlet and Roberto Benigni in Life Oscar Beautiful.
Green Book (Farrelly, ’18): lol the fuck? this is actually an excellent movie–quite possibly a great Hollywood Movie. i would’t mind one bit if Mortesen won for this, not one bit. (B+/A-)
I really hope critics bring Phoenix back. All he needs is winning NY or LA for You Were Never Really Here. The list of potential nominees is so thin and unimpressive and Phoenix has a terrific performance. It has worked in the past (for Diane Lane and so many others)…
I hope Mortensen takes this. He’s an actor who’s been doing solid work for years. And it took the Academy time to warm up to him, which is a shame because he was snubbed for A History of Violence.
Cooper, on the other hand, is somebody I just dislike as an actor. To me, he’s always fake and dull. His acting abilities are questionable, at best. And his three nominations are jokes. Sorry, this is my opinion.
I’d really like Dafoe to be a factor but he probably won’t be, unless critics make a heavy push and the precursors somehow realize that the best actor options are limited. It would be a shame if an actor of Dafoe’s caliber and bravery ends his career without an Oscar.
BP makes a big difference these when it comes to acting nominations, especially in male lead. Cooper and Gosling are guaranteed. Mortensen’s film seems sure to get a nomination so his chances are very high. I think and I hope that Redford get’s nominated for a great performances in his appearance as actor. That’s my four, but I am not sure about the last spot.
Since Sasha keeps repeating her personal opinion about Oldman, I will repeat the incontrovertible fact that she was one of only 13 out of 334 critics on Metacritic whose Top Ten list last year included Darkest Hour, a film which did not feature on the overall list of the 25 highest rated films, and one of only 9 of those whose Top Ten list did not include CMBYN, the 3rd highest rated film on the overall list.
She is entitled to her personal opinions. However, dismissing the NYFCC, LAFCA, Chicago, London and dozens of other critics’ groups who did not think Oldman gave the best performance last year as “chattering online” smacks of arrogance. Despite this potentially off-putting behaviour, I do urge people to take Sasha Stone’s Oscar predicting ability seriously.
Actors picked Oldman. Actors know more about acting than critics.
Wrong. Acting awards, more than anything else, take into account who is overdue, who is popular, who has made a charming campaign, etc. Critics have no such considerations.
Old man was by far the best performance. He just wasn’t as cute as little Timmee.
That’s your opinion, it doesn’t mean he was actually “by far the best performance”.. DDL and Timothee were better, in my opinion..
“Oldman had an urgency about his win. The first reason was that he was overdue. The second reason was the his work in Darkest Hour, despite the chattering online, was unequivocal. There wasn’t going to be a better performance. That was pretty clear.”
I agree that Oldman had an urgency about his win because of the first reason: he was “overdue”. But the second reason? Oh dear. There was nothing clear about the relative quality of the performances (although the quality of the makeup was indeed unequivocal). Let me point out that Oldman lost all the major critics’ awards, most of them to one other contender who was disadvantaged by not being considered “due”. Dismissing all those other critics’ groups is understandable for an Oscars prediction site, but they cannot be dismissed as “chattering online”.
They clearly do know their stuff. I think, maybe, she meant that there was chattering online about him not winning Oscar. It seemed certain when “The Darkest Hour” did well in nomination that he was going to win. The critics know more about Oldmen’s work than the Academy who had never really taken to him before last year. His performance was less risky and more theatrical than he is known for. It’s certainly the type of performance and role the Academy rewards.
That’s a plausible explanation. Yes, I agree that Oldman’s Oscar win was assured long before the ceremony, as were all the other acting awards. Being assured of an Oscar win does not mean there is no “better performance”, though. Sweeping the major critics’ awards is a better sign of quality, since the critics have no political considerations and don’t take into account factors like which actor is “overdue”.
I can’t wait for the day when a Filipino actor, a Mexican actor and a mixed race actor are all in the mix at the same time. None of these movies speak to me (except for Spike’s joint).
There’s gotta be talented non-white actor performances out there. how about giving yourself a rule that for each of these articles, you will also include a list of “if the world was right” these non-white actors would be equality considered. Do your part to further equity! If you can… 😉
“if the world was right” these non-white actors would be equality considered.
but if they were considered that would mean they were in films the academy approved of. meaning films i wouldn’t think was that good. so it would be a blessing and curse… 😉
How about just the best performances across the spectrum? None of the movies speak to you because of the ethnicity of the actors? Movies and performances as good as these have UNIVERSAL themes and emotions. Embrace them.
Not what I said. They don’t speak to me because the stories they are telling are of zero interest to me. And I just love how now that folks are paying attention to who’s stories are being told, there’s a call for “universal themes”. Bullshit! I’ve lived my whole life watching stories from a white male lens. That’s more than enough. Bring on the diversity and the specific stories that women and people of color have experienced. If you don’t like it, watch some of the 100 years of universal themed stories that are out there. I’m sure it will take you a lifetime to watch them all.
People like you are impossible. There are plenty of those stories including one that just won the Academy Award year before last. What’s of “zero interest” to you has nothing to do with its quality. And everything to do with you. Give the identity politics a rest and look at the quality of the films, will you? May the best film win.
People like me?
I want my 5 minutes back after reading this thread.
🙂
If I Nominated for Best Actor 2018:
(out of 161 new releases seen as of this comment)
…..
— Daveed Diggs (Blindspotting)
— Akshay Kumar (Pad Man)
— Joaquin Phoenix (Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot)
— Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here)
— John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
161 !!!!!!!!!!!
are you still alive after seeing that many new films ???
is this a typical number for you ? and your year’s not done yet…
I intend to watch 200 new releases per year for as long as I am physically able. I’m pretty sure most professional critics and cinephiles manage to reach that goal much easier than I can.
wow… 🙂
How many new releases have you seen in 2018 so far?
my number is a lot lower.so low, i might get banned from the site if i mention it… 😉
it’s low and i haven’t even been counting.
glimmer, you know that you cannot ever be blacklisted. You were here at AwardsDaily long before even I was, way back in the Oscarwatch era. You were one of first readers who talked to me when I stumbled in from the wilderness. You’re one of the essential Jenga blocks around here.
you and I know that moviewatching in the Chaos Era is measured in more than hours, my friend.
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe – At Eternitys Gate
Ryan Gosling – First Man
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
I really want Ethan Hawke to be nominated but something in my gut tells me he’s JUST going to miss the cut this year. Also, Malek will get a Globe nod but nothing more substantial than that.
I just don’t think that John David Washington is going to “happen”. From a punditry standpoint, Sasha is one of the only ones that are predicting him just outside the top 5. Most don’t even have him in the top 10. I can see some recognition for the film in screenplay, picture, director and maybe Best Supporting Actor… but that’s about it.
He won’t. He was good in BlacKkKlansman, but he’s not his father. No awards recognition for him.
i don’t think the script/film allowed for the sort of “good” acting that propels you further in the race. and i’m glad david, didn’t force that issue. 🙂
plus, i don’t think the film is popular enough/has momentum to pop him in top five. but when the top five hits.if i’ve seen any of those films.i *may not* think the acting is better than david’s. yes, personal opinion time *takes a bow… 😉
that actor could have got in for other reasons/love of the film or whatever.if david, got in i wouldn’t think it was the worse thing ever. every year people go crazy for stuff and i say to myself i guess i’m not human.because i don’t get it/didn’t care. 🙂
and i say that as someone that wasn’t the biggest fan of ‘blackkklansman’. hell, if his dad did the same performance in *this film* it would be taken more seriously as a potential top five type thing. hey, names and previous history matter. 😉
Washington was fine In Blackkklansman but nothing more. He’s not happening.
Oh boy! This is going to be a roller coaster of a season! So many great roles and actors. I think this year is going to be more interesting than ever. More political me think
Ryan Gosling – First Man
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
Christian Bale – Vice
Willem Dafoe – At Eternitys Gate (such a poetic title!)
Golden Globe:
COMEDY/ MUSICAL
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Christian Bale – Vice
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Chadwick Boseman -Black Panther
John C. Reilly – The Sisters Brothers
DRAMA:
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Willem Dafoe – At Eternitys Gate
John David Washington – BLACKkKLANSMAN
Steve Carrell – Beautiful Boy or Ryan Gosling – First Man
Bradley Cooper and Ryan Gosling I think are the only two people who are guaranteed as of now to get a Best Actor Oscar nomination, based on the amount of early rave reviews they’ve received for their performances.
I think it is my dislike of Cooper and A Star Is Born that clouds my rationality. That aside I think Cooper may be left out. The competition is too stiff
No way. He is a lock for a nomination. The film’s going to be a huge hit and he has received rave reviews.
Yes that is true. But American Sniper was a war movie directed by Clint Eastwood and released during the Christmas break. An American propaganda movie released during Christmas that got raves and the rest is history.
When it comes to musicals, it looks like there is still a bit tougher for the actor to be nominated compared to the multiple actresses nominated in a leading role and or supporting. I may be wrong here. I guess that Cooper may be a hotter tip for the director slot this year
Because you disagree with the point of view, does not make it a propaganda movie. Reactionaries make the same comments about inclusive movies with a non white males protanganists.
As Michael R said, no way. The Academy has a huge amount of respect for Bradley Cooper. Think about when he got a nomination for American Sniper when he wasn’t nominated at any of the major precursors with the exception of winning in the “action” category at the Critics Choice. No Globe, SAG, or BAFTA nomination, and he got an Oscar nomination.
A Star is Born will compete in Drama at the Globes. So it’ll be a packed Drama Best Actor race. Not even sure if Black Panther is in Comedy. But it’s definitely Drama on my book.
I think “A Star is Born” will be in Comedy or Musical at the Globes, because it is music film. “La vie en rose” isn’t comedy or musical either and Marion Cottilard won Globe in “Best Actress – Comedy or Musical” category.
“Golden Globe:
COMEDY/ MUSICAL
…
Chadwick Boseman -Black Panther”
=====
*cough* CATEGORY FRAUD *cough*
And here I thought I had escaped writers continually declaring Oldman’s performance as the definitive best of the year, as if its a fact. Could we remember that art is subjective? I thought there were loads of better lead actor performances, including those nominated and those not nominated.
As for this year, Cooper, Viggo, and Gosling all look solid and it’s hard to see them slipping out of the running. If “Vice” turns into something formidable awards wise, then Bale is the fourth. Which leaves the non BP candidates to duke it out for the last slot: Dafoe, Redford, and Eastwood.
Yes, I’d love to see a Hawke nomination/ win.
Ethan Hawke for the win!
Christian Bale is an amazing actor and should’ve been nominated and won last year for Hostiles. With that being said, Vice still has to be seen, but he’s almost reached Daniel Day Lewis/Meryl Streep level of assumption that he will get nominated for anything he does (including McKays last film, The Big Short), so I have little doubt he will be in.
I’m not really a Viggo fan, and from the trailers his performance in Green Book looks as broad and stereotypical as can be. I think of an SNL cast member doing a Robert DeNiro impression.
I can’t imagine Redford has slid from a shoe in, into a maybe. Now with Eastwood in his last acting role in the mix, I think it pulls votes away from Redford (maybe a tactic to push Cooper tona win?).
I think it would be a shame if Washington gets a nomination simply because I don’t think he was good enough. But right now, there isn’t any other person of color in a position to be nominated in the Actor races (though there’s a few in the Actress races) and we all know they won’t like the look of that.
I’m hoping I love Coopers performance in Star as much as I think I will. A lot of focus has been put on his directorial duties, and while in the past it seems the Academy has been willing to give actors the Director prize instead of the Acting one for the films they directed, I’m thinking he could take Actor as reward for all his work for the film (producing, directing, acting, writing) especially if it doesn’t win Picture. And for Gaga to just be nominated would be reward enough, plus a win for Best Song (which is really her forte).
Christian Bale only has three nominations, so far. He definitely hasn’t reached a level where he can’t miss.
Bale was so good in Hostiles. That film, which made $30 mill, by the way — deserved better, awards-wise.
Bale was superb in Hostiles! Superb! I look forward to seeing Vice.
Don’t count out Steve Carell in Beautiful Boy just yet.
I’ll count him out. I’ve seen it.
Ok. I value your opinion. However, Carell’s performance has divided critics. Some were impressed by it, such as Owen Gleiberman of Variety, who found it “true and touching”. We don’t know yet which way the Academy will view it. The critics were unanimous about his co-star’s performance, though.
One of these things is not like the others. John David Washington was merely passable. He never convinced me that he had much skin in Spike Lee’s game.
Haha, I got that reference. For those who didn’t, John David Washington complained to Adam Driver that he was acting like he didn’t have skin in the game, despite being Jewish.
John David Washington gave an amazing performance in Blackkklansman, the best I have seen so far.
About last year: “Oldman had an urgency about his win. The first reason was that he was overdue. The second reason was the his work in Darkest Hour, despite the chattering online, was unequivocal. There wasn’t going to be a better performance.”
IMO there were several performances way better than Oldman’s, he won because he was overdue and because the most deserving actor in a leading role was only 22 years old.
I’m here for Viggo.
I wonder if any of the early contenders will be revived by precursors. For what it’s worth, strictly based on individual performance, the John Krasinski-Nick Robinson-Ethan Hawke-Chadwick Boseman quartet would be definitely deserving of attention. Based on precedent, they most likely won’t actually get it, but still, they deserve a shout-out for jobs (VERY) well done.
I also thought Charlie Plummer was outstanding in Lean On Pete. It’s highly unlikely he’s getting nominated but worth a mention.