The Oscar race is sort of, kind of taking shape. We really can’t know what it will be, though, until thousands of people vote. Critics will push for their favorites (as they always do), but a film can win every singe critics award, win even the Golden Globes, and not win the Oscar. No, we don’t know for sure until the PGA. And even then, sometimes we can’t be sure, as happened with La La Land. By this time, two years ago, La La Land was what A Star is Born seems to be right now. It’s hard to get a read on it, but you could say wildly popular but also a wee bit divisive. Divisive because of the hype. So when people go to see it, they either come out gushing or they come out shrugging. That was the case with La La Land and now, the case with A Star is Born.
The question to ask is, does it have any real competition? And if so, where is it coming from? With La La Land and A Star is Born, there was pressure by pundits to make it the frontrunner that couldn’t lose. The Titanic express, heading for massive Oscar sweep. So in a way, that served La La Land well. It won a lot of Oscars, including Best Director and Best Actress. La La Land was seen as Damien Chazelle’s singular vision. Thus, it was a no-brainer to predict him to win Best Director. With A Star is Born, how much of that movie will be considered Bradley Cooper’s singular vision? How much of it is just the familiar story often told? How much is the cinematographer’s? How much is Lady Gaga’s influence? It feels more like a collaborative effort than La La Land did. For one thing, it didn’t spring from Cooper’s imagination. Chazelle brought to life something that was in his head, whereas Cooper is bringing to life, or bringing back to life, something we all already know pretty well.
It made sense to predict La La Land to sweep because we were all leading with Best Director. With A Star is Born, are folks predicting Cooper to win? The answer is very clearly no, at least not over at Gold Derby. They are predicting Alfonso Cuaron to win his second Oscar for Roma. If he wins a second Oscar without winning Best Picture, he will be in Ang Lee/George Stevens territory. If the pundits are predicting Cuaron for Best Director and any other film but Roma to win Best Picture (which it easily could), then they are predicting a split for Picture and Director, which can be tricky when it comes to the preferential ballot: if Roma has all of the momentum to swing towards that major prize of Best Director, why would it then not be predicted for Best Picture? We just saw that happen last year with Guillermo del Toro and The Shape of Water.
There is the same sort of conundrum with Green Book, which beat A Star is Born and every other movie to win the audience award in Toronto. A crowdpleaser like no other, Green Book has so much going for it as a Best Picture contender, it’s hard not to put it in first place. But we have to wait for it to open to know for sure. It’s one of those films that, at least so far, no one walks away from not being won over by it. I’m sure people will be able to nitpick various elements, just as they can and do with every other movie. That it isn’t the frontrunner right now, but rather a stealthy dark horse, helps it. When you think about movies that matter you, think about movies with a message, or “Ye Auld Gravitas”. Which movies are “important” enough that voters will put them to the top of their ballots? Green Book, which maps a path forward for a divided America towards compassion, empathy, and unity, represents the kind of America we’re all reaching for — a harmonious one, not a divided one. It’s also hella entertaining. You smile, you laugh, you cry. It’s got it all. But Peter Farrelly as a Best Director contender is the stumbling block.
We look at Best Director two ways: 1) Can a popular film win the DGA, like say Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born, even if he probably isn’t going to win the Oscar in directing? 2) Are we going to believe that 15,000 DGA members will watch Roma? Maybe. Hard to say, though. Cooper and Farrelly and even Chazelle seem like better bets for the DGA. The Oscar is a different story. Farrelly and Cooper will easily land DGA nods. But will they both land Oscar nods?
There is another scenario not being predicted anywhere and that’s the Spike Lee factor. If Spike Lee is finally nominated after almost 30 years, how does he not win? How does the sentiment not shift in his favor, to award him not only for BlackKklansman, but for his entire career, become the first ever black director to win Best Director in 90 years of Oscar history? I’m starting to wonder if he isn’t the one to watch for Best Director. If it happens, you heard it here first, friends. I’m almost tempted to predict it but I need more intel on how that movie plays with the industry overall. Will they give a second Oscar to Cuaron rather than a first ever to Spike Lee? I’m not so sure, particularly with the new members in the Academy, with Spike being the mentor for many of them and a pioneer in black filmmaking. Keep that one in the front of your minds. He needs to just win a major award (we know he’s not going to win the Globe) to get the momentum and sentiment going.
In that way, I’m not sure where we are with Best Picture. I’m mot 100% sold on A Star is Born taking it all the way home, but I also know it can’t be ignored, Dan. I’m wondering about Roma, First Man, and most especially, the crowdpleaser of the year, Green Book.
Let’s get on to predictions, shall we?
Best Picture – Frontrunners
A Star is Born/Roma/Green Book
First Man
BlackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows
Vice
Contenders
Black Panther
The Front Runner
8th Grade
First Reformed
Leave No Trace
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born/Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Christian Bale, Vice
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Contenders
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
Viola Davis, Widows
Contenders
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Chloe Sevigny, Lizzie
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave no Trace
Charlize Theron, Tully
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Contenders
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Calire Foy, First Man
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Contenders
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Contenders
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Cinematography
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Editing
First Man
Roma
The Front Runner
A Star is Born
Can You Ever Forgive Me
BlackKklansman
Original Screenplay
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Contenders
Ben is Back, Peter Hedges
Sorry to Bother You, Boots Riley
Tully, Diablo Cody
Adapted Screenplay
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Josh Singer, First Man
Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen, Widows
Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, A Star is Born
Contenders
Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace
Production Design
First Man
Black Panther
Roma
The Favourite
Green Book
Contenders
Crazy Rich Asians
The Front Runner
Can You Ever Forgive Me
BlacKKKlansman
Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Roma
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Contenders
Mission Impossible: Fallout
The Favourite
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Avengers: Infinity War
Solo
Deadpool 2
Sound Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Contenders
The Favourite
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Solo
Deadpool 2
Costume Design
The Favourite
Black Panther
Roma
Mary Queen of Scots
Mary Poppins Returns
Contenders
First Man
On the Basis of Sex
The Front Runner
BlacKKKlansman
Visual Effects
First Man
Annilhilation
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Original Score
First Man, Justin Hurwitz
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Widows, Hans Zimmer
Vice, Nicholas Britell
I just came back from The Wife. What a stunning performance by Glenn Close. I will be rooting for her come Oscars time.
Same.
Beautiful Boy opened up very well. Over $50k per theatre average and making over $200k. Hopefully the momentum will continue so that Timothee will get a very well deserved second nomination.
Very nice limited release debut indeed. While I wasn’t a fan of the film – flawed in almost all aspects but acting, music being a particularly distracting miss – the performances were indeed strong. I think only Chalamet will make the cut in the end although Carrel and Tierney delivered excellent work, as well.
I’ve seen people say the fact that Star is a remake is its biggest fault but people are forgetting that all the previous incarnations have never won much. Sure if one of the previous Stars already won Best Pic and Best Actress, I’d say it does hurt the new one, but seeing how each one was nominated for 6-7 Oscars and only the first one won for Writing and the last one won for Song (the 50s one went 0-6 on Oscar wins), I think it poises this one to do what all three others couldn’t. It would be a great element to the Star Is Born story/saga. After 40 years since the last one, the new one actually wins Pic and Actress etc. Sounds like a fairytale to me. It would be make up Oscars for all the others.
So the Academy didn’t care for the same melodramatic story in the past but they will now ? Well, this one IS an acclaimed smash hit so could happen but I would be seriously surprised if it got 1. SAG Ensemble nod 2. Directing AND Writing nods at the Oscars. And without those three, based on precedent, it won’t even come close to winning BP.
Well it will get SAG Ensemble nod and will probably win it. It’s an actor’s movie and will be all actors voting for it. It has 4 strong performances all front and center. What film are you predicting will win SAG Ensemble?
I’m looking at precedent that’s why I’m not even expecting a nod for ASIB, if La La Land couldn’t pull off the nomination under similar circumstances, I simply don’t see how ASIB possibly could.
There are four films I could see winning the SAG Ensemble :
POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS
– VICE (high-profile cast full of Academy darlings in flashy af roles, if critics like it as much as they did McKay’s previous film, it will most likely win this award)
– GREEN BOOK (crowdpleaser about race set in 1960’s America just like previous winners The Help and Hidden Figures)
– BLACK PANTHER (such an impressive ensemble full of excellent performers in both big and small roles, not to mention it is also a historic milestone of a film that impressed both critics AND audiences)
– CRAZY RICH ASIANS (ditto)
STRONG CONTENDERS
– If Beale Street Could Talk (depends on early precursor love)
– The Favourite (SAG voters have yet to embrace Lanthimos’s actors)
– Boy Erased (this I could totally see making the cut in the end)
– First Man (excellent – and large – supporting cast)
– Widows (if there is any justice, it will be at least in consideration)
– The Death of Stalin (ditto)
– A Quiet Place (four excellent performances, complimenting each other perfectly)
– The Hate U Give (I think this has the potential to be the big surprise of the season)
POTENTIAL (YET-UNSEEN) SURPRISES
– Mary Poppins Returns (could see this happen EASILY)
– Bohemian Rhapsody (will probably go down as a one-man show)
– Mary Queen of Scots (big, flashy cast, but reviews have to be kind first)
– Welcome to Marwen (strangely under the radar but could still make a late push)
Looking back at the past winners of this award, I see your point. The winners do seem to be the films with the biggest casts not neccessarily the best acting though. So maybe only four roles is not enough to get it the win. La La Land was still different though as it only had two.
I think if the studio wants to secure the Cooper/Gaga duo Oscars, they have to focus on Actor/Song, respectively, THOSE can easily happen.
In Cooper’s case, a BP win would be dependent on corresponding directing AND writing nods and even if he sneaks into BD, there is no way he will get one for the script. There is also no way any of his songs beat Gaga’s Shallow. Verdict : Best Actor is his best shot.
For Gaga, it’s a bit more difficult. One could argue convincingly that she has a good shot at Actress which at the moment it definitely feels like she does, but she and her film may have peaked early, there is a strong chance that 1. Close will sweep precursors 2. a late bloomer like Saoirse Ronan or Emily Blunt take everyone by storm just at the right time (December/January). So while a possibility, I do believe Actress will be tricky while a win in Song could be as easy of a win as they come in Oscar circles.
Four roles would be enough if they were all big ones. But the truth is ASIB is a two-hander, the two supporting roles (Sam Elliott and Andrew Dice Clay) are barely bigger than cameos, they both have around 10-15 minutes of screentime if that, from the 135 minute running time.
Or, instead, the Academy has repeatedly shown that it doesn’t love the story.
I’m not saying you are wrong or right, but your points can be turned completely on their head to argue why the film will NOT win much this time either.
So far, though, i hope you’re right as i liked the movie and the two central performances and much of the music.
p.s. the real origin of ASIB is 1932’s What Price Hollywood?, which was nominated for an Oscar for best story and lost.
I was simply countering the “its a remake so it won’t be nominated” idea. Then why did the second one get 6 noms and the third one get 4 nominations? All I was saying is I can see a headline that reads, “Can Cooper’s Star Do What All the Others Couldn’t”. It’s a good spin imo
Agreed it is a good spin. And i think ASIB has lost in the past mostly because of other factors not connected to the story — factors that don’t necessarily apply here. I mean, the Streisand ASIB is schlock and really was never gonna be nominated for or win much.
Exactly, it was actually a poorly received film and still got 4 noms and won 1.
Well it seems audiences haven’t really taken to First Man, so I think I’m pulling it from most of my predictions. Take these for what they are worth:
IMDB rating – 7.6 vs 8.4 for Star
RT audience rating – 63% vs 84% for Star
Opening Weekend BO – 16 mil vs 40 mil for Star
Cinemascore – B+ vs A for Star
And Star still has the critical edge too with a 90 % RT rating vs 88 for First Man and a 88 MC score vs 84 for First Man.
In what universe should those two wildly different films be compared to one another ?
Uh, in the one declaring them both as Oscar front runners in a race they are both trying to win.
Those four lines of comparison have zero to do with Oscars and everything to do with which one is the “popular” movie of the two. Duh, it’s A Star is Born. I’m fairly certain most of the recent BP winners lost to other BP nominees in those four regards and yet they still walked away with the Oscar in the end. I’m not saying that’s what First Man will do, I’m saying comparing its audience ratings and OW to a through and through crowdpleaser is completely irrelevant.
And I was only proving ASIB is clearly more popular than First Man. And in a year of uncertainty, popularity might be enough to carry this film to the finish line. Maybe it wasn’t enough for films in past years, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.
It doesn’t hurt and with the brand new voters it could make all the difference in the end but based on precedent, the most popular film in the category doesn’t win.
The Shape of Water vs. Dunkirk
Moonlight vs. La la Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. American Sniper
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity
etc.
This precedent based theory of mine could easily fall this year, the voting body went through a much-needed change recently and we will see what that will mean in the end but for now, based on past data, ASIB being as popular as it is almost feels like a disadvantage when it comes to a potential BP victory.
it’s inconceivable to me how A Quiet Place is being ignored over mediocre to bad fare like A Star is Born/Blackkklansmen or that John K. is being left off the Best Director list when his film is such achievement. Other than Roma, Beale Street and Widows, I look forward to nothing —bad year
ASIB and BK are both great movies.
It’s inconceivable to you that a beautifully made but small, indie horror movie is not a contender against these bigger movies that are getting the full Hollywood hype machine behind them??
It’s the Oscars.
I just got back from seeing First Man, and even though I thought it was good, especially the intense beginning and ending, I’m not sold on its Oscar chances now. I think Claire Foy is actually the most likely to get a nomination with Gosling a 50/50, and Chazelle actually unlikely to make it in. I mean it was prettt by the numbers, and a bit dull in some spots. And the fact that Chazelle just won I think hurts his chances, not helps them.
I see both Gosling and Foy getting nominated, as well as Chazelle. Foy I could actually see winning.
Not sure why hurtling through space is dull. It is a front runner for visual effects, sound design and production design. Score, editing, cinematography, Best Actor, picture, director and adapted screenplay are certain nominations. Foy could win.
Hurtling through space isn’t dull which is why the opening and ending are the best parts of the movie. What’s dull is the in between of each astronaut being told they are leading a mission and then the subsequent family get togethers and phone calls associated with it.
Today I saw First Man, twice, one time at the IMAX.
I think It is going to win the most Oscars.
Interesting. I saw it today too and while I thought it was good, especially the opening and ending, I found myself thinking it won’t win very many Oscars if any.
It’ll probably win Film Editing and the Sound categories. Also, while I just see Ryan Gosling just getting a nomination this time around, I could see Claire Foy winning.
I saw Boy Erased this week; it has a strong lead performance and an impressive one from Kidman, but I don’t think it succeeds emphatically. The last few scenes are great, but there’s lots of flat patches and no light and shade in it. What Xavier Dolan is doing in it is bizarre – sorely underwritten character. Lucas Hedges is one intensely good actor though
I don’t think Can You Ever Forgive Me is getting a best picture nomination personally.
My god, do people really think BlacKkKlansman is good? This is like bizarroworld for me (as a Spike fan).
A Star Is Born is a winner, for sure. Not a great movie all in all, but how many Best Picture winners really are? I agree it’s the frontrunner. Looking forward to seeing if Roma and Beale Street can pick up consensus love.
Yes it is brilliant.
Blackkklansman, ROMA and First Man are 3 amazing films. I wish one of these wins BP.
I really disliked BlacKkKlansman too.
I don’t think Blackkkansman is BP material either. But neither is ASIB. I thought First Man was going to be a contender, but alas, the cold response really hinders its chance.
This is… bizarre. Where to begin?
John David Washington in for Best Actor when Eastwood and Redford aren’t even *contenders*?
Felicity Jones and Julia Roberts in for Best Actress over Aparicio, Colman, and Kidman with Viola Davis not even listed as a contender?
Barry Jenkins not listed as a contender for Best Director over the likes of Jason Reitman and Paul Schrader?
Vice not even a contender for Original Screenplay?
Predicting BlacKkKlansman to get nominated for Director and Actor and NOT for Adapted Screenplay, when that’s the one category most people are predicting it to *win*?
Green Book in for Production Design and movies like Fantastic Beasts and Mary Poppins Returns are not even mentioned?
Agreed. My current predictions-
DIRECTOR:
Alfonso Cuarón, ROMA
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
ACTRESS:
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Yalitza Aparicio, ROMA
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Claire Foy, First Man
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Alfonso Cuarón, ROMA
Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie & Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
Paul Schrader, First Reformed (2017)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A Star Is Born
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Josh Singer, First Man
Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Gillian Flynn & Steve McQueen, Widows
Kidman is gonna be a final five for Boy, Erased.
Kidman has a good shot for a double nom at Lead and Supporting
i’m seconding this
I predict Bohemian Rhapsody to bomb big time with critics and Malek to lose any chance of a nom even at the Globes (he’s going drama, too crowded).
Agreed. Very strange predix
All I can say is I went into that Green Book screening like a snarky snobby little bitch that I tend to be in life, and left thinking “bish, pull yourself together, you just let a simple little line like “Merry Christmas” uttered by some cop, fuck you up ?”.
Mortensen is a serious threat in Best Actor, Ali could EASILY win again in supporting. Best Picture ? We’ll see. I think the nomination is happening, the win is a different story.
I can imagine my reaction will be something similar to yours.
Its been more than a week since I’ve seen A Star is Born and the more IT think about the more the 2nd half becomes forgettable for me. I still love Cooper and really like Gaga as actors and the the way he shoots and does the sound for the concerts scenes is exceptional but once Gaga has her great moment where she is dragged on stage it get a little less impressive for me and I’ve felt that more as I’ve gotten further away from it.
A Star is Born is an entertaining film with fine performances by Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, and Sam Elliott with a great soundtrack, but there is a detachment there. It lacks the emotional punch that accentuated the Judy Garland/James Mason and the Janet Gaynor/Fredric March versions. Still, I highly recommend it, if only for the vocal performances by Gaga.
MQOS has screened for a selected few critics/pundits it seems & is under embargo atm. ”Without breaking embargo I’d say don’t count out S.R.”~Chief writer for VF. I’ve heard/read from other sources that her performance is ”excellent”, so if these statements are true & her performance as Mary Stuart is a ‘career best’-again, I think it’s safe to say Ronan will get her fourth nomination in 2019!
I know MQOS has yet to be screened for wider critics/pundits but the chief critic of Vanity Fair has seen it and said ”Without breaking embargo I’d say don’t count out S.R.”
One small problem when it comes to Green Book and sasha’s analysis. It’s Metacritic score is at 69 (granted with only 8 critics) but that is data that counters the “everyone loves it” assertion. Critics being like prostitutes-hustlers who can’t appreciate a good missionary position (movie) will not be awarding it praises probably which means it won’t get as much push up the screener pile. It will need word of mouth from those who saw it at festivals and screenings to bump it up into contention.
“The Fog is Clearing, But Don’t Expect to be Right in October”
… and the wind could still change when Mary Poppins returns.
Sadly the history of Disney and the (non animated category) Oscars suggests otherwise.
Mary Poppins did great if I recall. 5 wins and 13 nominations.
Saw First Man. I thought some parts were great but soooo much of it was a slog. I looked at my watch many times as it dragged on and on in some parts. Critics are gonna love it overall but the GENERAL movie going audience is gonna be pretty ho hum about it. I don’t think it’s gonna make much at the box office overall.
First Man is front runner is several caregories. It is a stunning achievement.
I am really interested to see how leggy A Star is Born will be. It has become the event movie of the fall and I predict it’s week to week drops will be pretty small compared to most blockbusters. I actually won’t be surprised to see it go up a spot and take number 1 for the weekend. It’s definitely the movie of the moment. I’m really interested to see what it’s multiple will be. I don’t think it will reach the heights of the 76 version, which made close to 350 million (adjusted). It’s one of those movies that everyone I know has seen and is still talking about days later. It has struck a nerve. For me, anyway, it has been a long time that a film people are seeing with such urgency. Best Picture? I’m not sure – Sasha’s right, it’s too soon to tell. I do think that Cooper will be rewarded in some regard. It’s a fantastic performance – I’d say it’s his best, and he’s turned in some pretty great performances over the year. His direction is quite strong, especially for a first timer. It’s assured, grand and intimate. It’s really impressive. After seeing it for a second time, I’m more on board for a Gaga nomination for Actress, but think her lock is for Shallow. I think they will both walk away with a statuette. I also really hope that Elliott gets some attention – and I’m not just talking a nomination for a life’s work. He’s so good in this film. His last two scenes broke my heart.
I agree with what i think you are saying, which is that Gaga was excellent, but it is actually Cooper who was absolutely dazzling. I think this film is gonna be the first to win both Actor and Actress since Nicholson/Hunt in As Good As It Gets.
I like Elliot but i literally could not understand 75% of what he said in the movie, and neither could the person i went with.
Star is will be close to passing 100 mil after this weekend believe it or not, and I fully expect it to stay in theaters through Thanksgiving. All my friends and co-workers are talking about it. Meanwhile, First Man is heading for a lackluster opening weekend. Having just seen it myself, I don’t see it garnering many Oscar noms and 0 wins.
I reiterate that Mortensen has a bit of history with TIFF, I’d be reluctant to get behind Green Book based upon that. We need further evidence, although I’d like to see it do well.
If Willem Dafoe can get nominated for playing a maintenance man, why not Vincent Van Gogh?
That’s interesting. No one is talking about him because his film isn’t getting lots of attention. But that’s the kind of role that would usually win acting Oscar. I always say that in a biopic half the award belongs to the role. So this could be pretty big if Dafoe get’s nominated, I think he’ll win unless the Academy just decides to give all its love to Cooper. Conversely, I don’t think Bale is going to win for his role as Cheney because the Academy doesn’t like the former VP. It’s has to be a performance on the level of Forest Whitaker.
I am still confident that BlackKklansman is the natural sweeper of 2018, when all is said and done. People predicting Cuaron for a 2nd and in foreign language (when he’s going to pick up FL anyways) while Lee would be denied a likely multiple nomination as Director (1st chance!) and Writer (1st Chance!) being a living legend… are seriously not evaluating the race at all.
ASiB is peaking too early. Its worse enemy: time to actually think about it, and compare if it’s really that worthy… think of what happened with La La Land… similar scenario, specially given it’s the 4th version of a classic, many voters will recheck the previous versions to actually compare how it stands in comparison… I don’t really think Lady Gaga is winning in front of Glenn Close, also super-mega-overdue.
My guesses go this way… for the win.
1. BlackKklansman
2. First Man
3. Vice
4. Green Book
5. If Beale Street could talk
People is forgetting something crucial, about A Star is Born. This is the Oscars. They could give it Best Song to some who has co-credit by Cooper and Gaga and call it a day, giving them the “Academy Award Winner” label in their future trailers.
… nothing else. I still say, I’ll be in shock if A Star is Born actually wins Best Picture, Director, Actor or Actress… Sam Elliott in the other hand, is still my pick as likely supporting actor winner.
Star will very likely win Ba BAs and BP , so prepare to be shocked ,,,,,Star is not peaking , merely building momentum to crush its competitors
It’s October. Remakes will always face the problem that, given time to compare and think about it, they may end thought to be overhyped and overestimated. A Star is Born’s best chances are SONG and Supporting Actor. Gaga over Close? Cooper at Actor or Director? Think twice. Which actor directed himself to an Oscar win in Acting? Cooper is NOT winning Best Director without Best Picture and he’s warrant an Oscar win in SONG. Maybe they just choose the song in which both Gaga and Cooper share the writting credits and call it a day (that happened before: “Falling Slowly”, from Once). You need only to go back two years to see how a similarly hyped – seemed unbeatable – musical went on to lose Best Picture. What is more, which was the last remake, to win Best Picture? The Departed. But it was an overdue Marty remaking an unknown asian film, “Infernal Affairs”, not the 4th remake of an extremely popular story.
People is losing perspective, and forgetting how Oscar is always leaning to reward originality over remakes, reboots or sequels. A Star is Born is hyped right now, because it’s the release date and the marketing has focused on the Oscar buzz, which does not make a film Oscar-worthy or a lock for a sweep, per se.
You are talking about A Star Is Born peaking too early and yet you have Blackkklansman as the film winning. It came and went in theaters within a month and is about to hit DVD and be forgotten there too. Meanwhile, your second pick, First Man, is failing to connect with audiences and will be out of theaters while making less than 50 million dollars on a budget of 60. I’d think again if I were you. Or at least choose a film that isn’t out yet before you talk about peaking early.
Two people have directed themselves to an Oscar, Laurence Olivier in Hamlet and Roberto Benigni in Life is Beautiful. And BOTH were nominated for director their respective years as well.
yes, but think about it…
Olivier was already a celebrated stage actor proving himself as director AND screen actor.
Benigni was nominated for Foreign Film, Director, Actor and Writer… FF technically isn’t his (but the producers) so they did not want to leave him emptyhanded… also, Benigni had a certain cult status in the industry thanks to his work with Jim Jarmusch, and was a riot at the pre-Oscar parties, plus the project being a successfully one from a suicidal proposal that already costed half of the career of one of Hollywood’s icons, Jerry Lewis (the clown that cried had a similar idea, a dramedy set in the Holocaust).
Cooper is only playing the fact he’s likeable and already multinominated (haven’t seen “American Hustle” but I still shrug to his performances in “Silver Linings Playbook” and specially “American Sniper”)… beyond that… not really much back up to justify a Best Lead Actor win, aside of this time, also singing. I think he CAN win, of course, but I have Mortensen, Bale or Carelly better positioned than him… among others. I am in doubt he will be even nominated for acting, this time. I think Gaga and Elliott will be nom’d and Elliott will win.
Hype is exactly what led to me feeling underwhelmed by A Star is Born. Maybe I shouldn’t have watched the Judy Garland and Barbra Streisand versions in preparation. Maybe that diluted the emotional resonance because it didn’t capture my feelings. I’ll always love Lady Gaga and I’d be thrilled if she got a nom; the first half of the movie & some of the musical moments are nice, but I’m still not a fan of Bradley Cooper and his remake didn’t do anything for me. It’s not a bad movie, but I don’t understand the hype for Best Picture. Not that my take means anything because I don’t get the support for a lot of Best Picture nominees over the years.
I like First Reformed, BlacKkKlansman, Eighth Grade, Leave No Trace, Annihilation, Blindspotting, Hereditary & The Rider much more than I like ASiB. They didn’t have hype; they have buzz built through word of mouth, but I’m not sure any of these are top contenders.
I haven’t seen most of the top contenders: First Man. Green Book. Roma. If Beale Street Could Talk. The Favourite. The Favourite and Roma I am anticipating the most.
.
I felt the same way (hype or no hype) regarding emotional resonance. I was just struggling to feel Gaga’s last song. I understand what Cooper is trying to do there, with the close up shot of the camera just lingering in her face to profile shot highliting her nose line to establish her humble beginnings. But everything was disconnected emotionally. Not to mention the lazy exposition of Ally and Jack made it more manipulative but just made it farther emotionally to me. I would have preferred Gaga just singing with her hears out.
But would like to disagree on Cooper. I thought he was the strongest aspect of the film. His acting leads the way making Gaga a reactionary to his sincerity. So yes, Lead Actor nod is most probable anong other things.
Hype does not affect me.
12 yrs a slave and Spotlight became frontrunner/favorites at this time of year , and so did LLL …even though it was very unlucky to lose due to ,IMO ,the election of Trump !
I cannot see any real and serious competition to Star at this moment in time
Roma ..too art-house and niche
First Man ..too traditional, conservative and politically anachronistic ..a winner 10 yrs ago but not now with the quickly changing voter pool
Green book ..it sounds like it pushes the right buttons politically , but I just dont think it will interest the majority of voters
Beale St ..I just don’t know much about it ; it doesn’t seem to have any buzz
I’m not getting any vibes for Black Klansman , it seems like this years ”Get Out” !
I’m not sure if I said so in this forum and I don’t wanna spoil the fun so “early.” But it’s A Star is Born and it’s not even close. There isn’t even a challenger from the privileged view where I sit. To this day I’m still not sure how LA LA Land lost (I’m not even 100% sure it lost), but everybody likes Cooper. He’s likeable and he’s made the right movie–a winner. Game over.
LLL lost because a reality TV star won the Presidency and the voters were angry and in a very political mood ; they chose Moonlight to send a message out to Trump World …If Hillary had won I’m certain that LLL would have won BP
Lucky for us this happened.
Oh, the idiocy of your comment is quite staggering! This is typical reaction by people when what the expect to happen doesn’t happen. “Moonlight” won because they genuinely thought it was better than La la Land? You might agree with taste but it’s their and they will pick who the fuck they want. They’ve always done this and picked whatever they want and send whatever message they want to send. Why you think this is particularly the case with “Moonlight” I have no idea. This is quite ridiculous!
You sound like a politically tone deaf and quite gormless person
Let me put it another way: The Academy picks who the fuck they like. Try to interpret their based on your political views is stupid and a total waste of time. Get real!
I also saw First Man and I enjoyed it a whole lot, but did anyone see the Malick/Pitt plagiarism before I did or am I still the best in the game?
The scene where Gosling chases his two boys through the house to the bedroom was ripped right from Tree of Life. Even had the fisheye lens look like that whole film had.
I am still unsure how many great films lost at the Oscars but they did. Anyway, they showed you the envelope. What more proof do you want?
I think you will be very disappointed again. Anyway, you and Academy rarely ever cross over so ASIB are buried it seems.
I don’t even like the movie that much tbh.
Okay then, It’s winning everything, including BP and BD.
I said it first.
I don’t know, that La La Land loss pretty much proves that nothing is for sure. The reletively early release date could also hurt it. If this were a smaller movie that needed more time to build opening in early October would be great, but for something that blows its wad right away like this they could be peaking way early and lead to fatigue by voting time. On the other hand the backlash machine may have also moved on to something else by then too and that could help.
I have several stat reasons why I don’t think it will win but mostly I just think that it’s going to burn itself up before we even reach December. Even Affleck somewhat needed a re-envigoration in January and that film was much less of a frontrunner than A Star Is Born.
What do you think is gonna win?
I’m actually predicting Beale Street to win right now
I’m not so sure on it winning best pic. But I think you’re right that it could win other big ones. Cooper will get SOMETHING whether it’s director or actor or screenplay. Gaga is current frontrunner. Gonna win song for sure. I just can’t get there for it winning picture…it’s gonna get backlash at some point. It just is.
I am really interested in seeing the % drop off at the box office this weekend. It’s predicted to make $25M but I think the drop off will be much less than that. I think it makes over $30M and if it does it’s gonna have legs upon legs upon legs.
Screenplay ain’t happening because the writing was just so weak. The writers beanch knows better.
Right now Original Song and Lead Actor most likely wins just because I haven’t seen a strong contender yet.
It is gonna hit 30 this weekend which is only a 25 percent drop from the 40 it made last weekend. That means by Monday it will be at 95 million already. I agree about legs. This thing will run through Thanksgiving and I have friends that have already started seeing it multiple times not unlike The Greatest Showman. That’s the thing about musicals. They have replayability.
I agree with you. Plus, as of right now, I can’t see anyone beating Cooper for best actor.
Not to mention that A Star is Born has much greater emotional grit and contextual relevance, and has caught on and transcended in the culture in a way that LA LA Land never did, regardless of its box office tally. Many saw LA LA Land and felt that it was nice and they didn’t need to see it again; it was light as air to some, trivial to many (not me). This is what ultimately doomed it — it was seen as a piffle. Not so with A Star is Born.
Do you get paid by the word or by the sentence?
It would benefit you to not focus so much on what I write and start reading a little bit more about film, after which you might hopefully have something of substance to say. Or not.
I’ve read your work. I get it. You love A Star is Born. Maybe a little TOO much but I collect Polish film posters from the ’60s and ’70s so who am I to say?
Correct …Star has an MTV music documentary authenticity about it ..it’s not fantasy ..it seems real , poignant,and true to life that viewers can identify with ,especially in the era of talent shows
At this point I agree with you. It’s a big, old-fashioned hug of a movie that has emotional highs and lows, appealing music, and two compelling central roles that are inseparable. It’s not great work of art — hold that spot for Zama, the best movie i’ve seen this year (although I know it came out in 2017, but it didn’t get to my town till 2018). But ASIB is the kind of thing I think the Academy will embrace, especially in the current cultural/political climate which is so wearying, and after the unconventional nature of the past few choices.
Strange to leave off Boy, Erased even as a contender for Best Pic when there are movies listed like Leave No Trace and Eighth Grade on there. If those are possible, Boy, Erased is too.
And no Mary Queen of Scots even as a possible contender either. Interesting.
And leaving off KiKi Layne for If Beale Street Could Talk altogether is a big oversight.
Leaving off both Redford and Eastwood is bold as contenders. And although I agree that Malek isn’t a contender I noticed that this week he moved up BIG TIME on Gold Derby with a lot of people. I think that movie just looks awful.
How Jenkins isn’t even a contender for Director for Beale street is bold. He’s gonna be a final 5 for the Oscars.
I’ve never been a fan of Redford but he was sooooo charming in Old Man and the Gun.
Jenkins is very surprising. I was not including him and his film very highly but the pointers are all there. Only “Roma” ticks more boxes at this stage. He second favourite for BD Beale is second favourite for BP. Screenplay and acting wins are the main reason. plus its played festivals and has done well. That’s the early pointersyou need at this early stage.
Why is Sasha throwing Felicity Jones into her Top 5 all of a sudden for a film that hasn’t been seen by anyone? To put her in front of Olivia Colman, Nicole Kidman and Yalitza Aparicio at the moment seems haphazard to me, unless she’s hearing something about her performance that we haven’t and/or she feels a post-Cavanaugh wave of momentum will carry Jones’s performance through regardless.
Sasha is well known for her advance advocacy for female driven movies in hopes of getting people to watch and hopefully make her wish come true. (An admirable strategy and one men have been doing for decades so why not?) This is last year’s Battle of the Sexes.
I will watch the movie, but the dialogue in the trailer is clunky. The crew lacks impressive resumes.
My guess…
1) Roma vs If Bale street could talk vs The Favourite for the win.
2) ASIB / First man / Green Book sure to be nominated, but no BP win.
3) Vox Lux / Vice / The Mule potential dark horses.
I saw Beautiful Boy, not a very good movie but not a bad one either. One thing is clear, Timothée Chalamet is winning best supporting actor.
All aboard the Timmy Hype Train 2.0.
Get over it. He won nearly every major critics prize last year. It’s not hype. It’s talent. Recognize it.
That was more tongue in cheek than anything else.
Never. Staaahhp.
You are like a gay version of foxnews hatred. You are the mob. Hideous.
Over Ben Foster.? Don’t be so sure.
Ben Foster is campaigning in lead, he insisted on that placement.
Never. No.
Nope
I sure hope so.
I think it’s possible Chalamet wins. But he has to survive the mixed reviews. Kind of like Angelina Jolie did when she won for Girl, Interrupted.
Still no The Favourite? I appreciate the love for animals all the same but when this keeps getting ignored while BlacKkKlansman is left on the list I have to question the value of moral posturing in this situation.
I think “The favourite is going to be a contender. I mean, Original Screenplay favourite (maybe just behind “Roma”?) and acting nominations all around and possible win for Colman.
What’s the issue about “Blackkklansman”?
The buzz died down. Maybe it’ll get a Screenplay nod thrown in there but Lee is definitely not getting nominated for Director.
Are you just talking about its chances or is there animal rights issue?
I think the buzz is there and there really isn’t much of contenders to talk it out of contention. Screenplay is best chance and it could be favourite or second favourite behind Beal. That’s not something that will only get a single nomination. I just cannot see anything better to take lee or its place. I have it in third place. “Roma”, Beale, Blackkklansman, “The Favourite”, ASIB, First Man and Greenbook. Those are my nominees and in that order too.
Sasha has refused to count The Favourite among the list of contenders because of the controversy surrounding a scene of animal cruelty.
I can’t wait to see The Favourite. It looks like the Masterpiece Theatre movie that blows up all Masterpiece Theatre movies for good. Peter Greenaway tried to do it many years ago with The Draughtsman’s Contract.
Am I the only one who doesn’t get the hype for “Greenbook”? I mean, I understand it’s pretty early and the Academy might not agree with critics, but how can a film with such low MC score be considered as BP favourite? It should struggling to get in let alone win it. Although, I think it will get nominated there’s not going to get anywhere near winning BP. Never! It will be about actors showcase and could one or both acting awards. If Ali goes supporting, I think he automatically becomes huge favourite to win as there’s no real competition and his role is quite big; in fact, it’s almost lead.
Good point; if I’m not mistaken, preferential ballot era BP winners have all had a Metascore of 85+. This means Roma, A Star is Born, Beale Street, Widows, First Man and others could be in contention; but Green Book would have a hard time.
It could get lower and it probably will get lower soon but it’s not going to be that lower.
And Leave No Trace 88.
Green Book currently only has 8 reviews listed on metacritic, when more critic reviews are added it will probably end up with a higher MC seeing as it is still at 100% on RT with 21 reviews so wouldn’t discredit it just yet as a possible BP favourite.
I think there are four strong contenders in best actress for nominations – Gaga, Close, Roma’s Yalitza Aparicio and a Favourite actress. Then add we’ll wait and see how reviews and their film’s popularity play out : Ronan? McCarthy? Davis? Kidman? Roberts? Blunt?
Knightley is up there.
No mention of Timothee Chalamet even though he’s at the top of most people’s predictions.
True but man that is not getting great reviews. He might be great but I think the fact the movie might not be all that great will knock him out of it. Might be wrong.
I’m not sure where he fits in a final five the way things are looking RIGHT NOW. Ali, Rockwell, Elliot all seem to be pretty locked in…maybe. But supporting actors from BlacKKKlansman and Beale Street are likely going to get at least one nom I’m guessing. Then you have Michael B. Jordan and Richard Grant as well.