It’s not all that worthwhile trying to call an Oscar race when the story isn’t all the way told, and the story for Oscars 2019 isn’t. With a few high profile films still outstanding, some categories remain uncertain. Late breakers like The Mule, Mary Queen of Scots, On the Basis of Sex, and maybe Welcome to Marwen add a question mark to the end of the sentence. Are they going to be good? How good? Do they disrupt the major categories? Most are holding a place for Christian Bale, and a few are certain a movie about Ruth Bader Ginsburg has to be Oscar worthy THIS year, right? Hard to say. Building a consensus now, with the shorter season, takes time. Critics will mostly gather around a few of their favorites from earlier in the year. If voters don’t see the movies (they’ll see them, for sure) or there isn’t sufficient time to build buzz and momentum it becomes more and more difficult to squeeze them in.
High profile films can come in right at the end and still make an impact. The Big Short was one of those. Wolf of Wall Street another. But it’s harder and a bigger risk. The films that tend to do well have early starts, as do the winners in all of the major categories since they made the season so short. Big stars like Meryl Streep and Leo DiCaprio have no problem crashing the party late. People will always eagerly await, and hold a place for, anything they do. Both of them won with late breaking entries into the race. For the most part, though, let’s say 80 to 85 percent of them are set in stone early or early-ish, their momentum slowly building until it’s all a done deal. I could probably prove this by listing each year and each category – but I don’t have time right now to do that. A quick glance at the supporting categories tells me I’m right. But it would be interesting to build a chart to prove it. Maybe at some point later on.
I call this the girl-next-door idea. You live next door to her, you know her well, you trust and like her and eventually marry her. As opposed to the girl who flies in from out of town – is unpredictable and mysterious but a forever stamp is not as sure a bet; it’s a risk. All the better to stick with the one you know for sure is a keeper. It’s not a perfect metaphor, and has a little bit of creepy around the edges but you get the idea.
Or it’s just that early contenders have the backing of a dutiful publicist who puts them in the right place at the right time to ensure support. Whatever the reason, it is what it is. I bring this up because I have been wondering about Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots for some time, whether she could pull off a Supporting Actress win. She has that girl-of-the-moment thing going for her and she’s shown her versatility, and she almost won last year. But it’s coming in so late I am not sure you can build momentum that way. On the other hand, who else is there taking the lead? So far, it looks like the predicting community is down for Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. King could easily win the SAG and thus, the Oscar.
Are there any other names being bandied about? Well, some are pushing for Emily Blunt to get in for A Quiet Place as supporting? Emma Stone is in it for The Favourite, no doubt. Claire Foy could win for First Man. She could win the Golden Globe. There is Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased. There is potentially Linda Cardellini for Green Book. This is mostly a year for actresses, not so much for supporting actresses, interestingly enough, unless a few break through in the last part of the year, like Amy Adams in Vice.
Supporting Actor does seem like a near lock for Mahershala Ali, at least right now, at least for a nomination. The others are Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy, Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman and Sam Elliot, A Star is Born. Elliot could rise up and win the thing, you know, it’s not outside the realm of possibility. An old timer character actor beloved in Hollywood finally wins. But there is also a potential late breaker of Sam Rockwell in Vice (though he won last year so…).
But there aren’t, as far as I can tell, any hard frontrunners in any of the categories. I would say this was a wide open race in all respects and that anything could happen and it would not be that surprising. Black Panther could even rise up as a major contender in all categories, to make up for the popular film category debacle and it would not be surprising. I guess the thing that would be surprise me the most is if a late breaking film – one that isn’t seen until November or December, won Best Picture.
Onward to predictions, such as they are:
Best Picture
A Star is Born
Green Book
Roma
First Man
The Favourite
Can You Ever Forgive Me
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKKKlansman
First Reformed
Vice
Alt. Black Panther
Best Actor
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Christian Bale, Vice
Ryan Gosling, First Man
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Contenders
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Behemian Rhapsody
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Viola Davis, Widows
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Contenders
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Charlize Theron, Tully
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Calire Foy, First Man
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Contenders
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave no Trace
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Contenders
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Original Screenplay
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Vice, Adam McKay
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Adapted Screenplay
A Star is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
First Man, Josh Singer
Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
Widows, Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen
Cinematography
Roma
First Man
A Star is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Green Book
Vice
Production Design
The Favourite
Black Panther
Roma
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Mary Poppins Returns
Sound Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Costume Design
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
BlacKKKlansman
Black Panther
Visual Effects
First Man
Annilhilation
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Deadpool 2
Solo
Original Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Sisters Brothers
Widows
The Incredibles 2
That’s it for now. We wait, we watch. We wait, we watch.
Caveat: I’m relatively new here, so I’m unsure as to whether this has been discussed…
With all the talk of Gaga being a sure thing for Best Original Song, I can’t help but wonder why “All The Stars” by Kendrick Lamar and SZA from Black Panther isn’t being discussed. With his Grammy Awards, Pulitzer Prize, and the fact that the song is really good, could he be a contender?
I think it will strongly depend on what’s going to get shortlisted: it would probably be one of the more popular songs getting in so if there are other songs like it that voters are also considering, it won’t help. But if the shortlist just becomes for example the three A Star Is Born songs, the Deadpool 2 song and a lot of songs from smaller movies, it might have a really great chance of getting in
It’s hard to predict that category without the shortlist, but I do think it will be a contender, and I’m currently predicting it will be nominated. Though I highly doubt it can win. A Star is Born is simply too strong of an overall contender and it is driven by music. The only film I could see taking away its best song win is Mary Poppins Returns, another film driven by music, which is submitting two fantastic numbers (a gorgeous ballad sung by Blunt, and a more rousing crowd-pleaser in the vein of Step in Time). Kendrick/SZA/Black Panther have enough clout and momentum to get in, but I dont see how All the Stars topples either of these musicals unless they both have multiple song nominations and vote splitting happens
Hadn’t even heard of this movie until now, but suddenly ‘ALL IS TRUE’ jumps into the Oscar race with an end-of-year qualifying run. Directed by Kenneth Branagh and starring himself as Shakespeare alongside Ian McKellen and Judi Dench. Do we have to make room for even MORE amazing actors in our predictions??
http://www.awardscircuit.com/2018/10/30/kenneth-branagh-directed-all-is-true-will-receive-a-qualifying-run-co-stars-dench-mckellen/
OK, let me summarize what I think is going on, in the main categories, before critics start rolling…
Picture:
Locks:
A Star is Born
BlacKKKlansman
Green Book
Roma
Likely:
First Man
If Beale Street could talk
The Favourite
Fillers:
Vice
Can you ever forgive me / Eight Grade – whatever the critics bandwagon.
Winner: BlacKKKlansman is the obvious winner here, becasue of context, dueness, themes, and instant classic status. Unless it is suprisingly forgotten by precursors, it’s the most logical outcome.
Director:
Locks:
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Likely:
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Fillers:
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street could talk / Peter Farrelly, Green Book, Damien Chazelle, First Man, Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite / Adam McKay, Vice
Winner: Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman, to be the first african american director winning this prize. 30 years late…
Actor:
Locks:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Likely:
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Filler:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed / Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody / John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Winner: at this point, I’d say Bradley Cooper because they will need to give him anything. But it’s a tough fight between Bale, Cooper and Mortensen. Washington is a wild card, he’s going to have african-american royalty support, including his father and Oprah.
Actress:
Locks:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Likely:
Melissa McCarthy, Can you ever forgive me
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Filler:
Toni Colette, Hereditary / Nicole Kidman, Destroyer / Viola Davis, Widows / Julia Roberts, Ben is Back / Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Winner: Glenn Close is winning this, Gaga is winning Song. Every lock has her win.
Supporting Actor:
Locks:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can you forgive me
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Likely:
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Filler:
Sam Rockwell, Vice / Timotheé Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Winner: I think Sam Elliott is taking it, due to ASiB not winning Best Picture, they will feel obligued to give it a nice amount of awards – think La La Land. If nominated, it’s really likely Adam Driver might upset, but I am not as confident as if he’s getting the nom, even if I think BlacKKKlansman is an almost lock for the SAG ensemble nom.
Supporting Actress:
Locks:
—–
Likely:
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street could talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Fillers:
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased / Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (category fraud!) / Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Winner: the most open race, it can go either way, but it’s going to be the best chance to give an award to If Beale Street could talk, if they want to throw it some bone.
Adapted Screenplay:
Locks:
A Star is Born
BlacKKKlansman
If Beale Street could talk
Likely:
First Man
Filler:
Can you ever forgive me / Boy erased
Winner: I think BlacKKKlansman is taking this one almost by default. A Star is Born is a 4th version of the same story which at the very end is an iteration of a classic story – Pygmalion – so unless surprise, it won’t win. Barry Jenkins winning this for Moonlight only two years ago, makes it even more difficult to repeat, even more so in front of Lee. This year, Spike Lee “needs” to have his Oscar in competition and he’s going to achieve a huge support in the campaigning, from Denzell to Oprah… this film winning will be a spit in the face of the alt-right, and in this climate of clash, BKM is the film that is better positioned to appeal liberal Hollywood to send a clear message.
Original Screenplay:
Locks:
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Likely:
First Reformed
Filler:
Eight Grade / Tully / Vice / A Quiet Place / Hereditary
Winner:
Roma is taking this one, unless they feel that Cuaron winning Foreign Film is enough and award Peter Farrelly for Green Book as a welcome back to form (he should have been nominated for this one, 20 years ago, along his brother for their classic comedy “There’s Something about Mary”, probably even win it), plus Green Book is a crowdpleaser that might really well not go emptyhanded… Roma may have enough wins with the predictable Cinematography and Foreign Film successes.
Ugh Stone, stop making absolute statements. You don’t know if Margo Robbie “almost won”. It’s just sloppy writing and beneath you at this point. Leave the crappy writing to Tom O’Neal.
2013 – Cuaron
2014 – Inarritu
2015 – Inarritu
2016 – (Chazelle)
2017 – Del Toro
2018 – Cuaron
2019 – Del Toro
2020 – Cuaron
2021 – Inarritu
2022 – Del Toro
What about a “spread the wealth” scenario where:
A Star is Born wins Actor and Song
Green Book wins Supporting Actor and maybe Original Screenplay
The Favourite wins Actress and maybe Original Screenplay
Roma wins Director
Beale Street wins Picture and Adapted Screenplay
I don’t think it’s impossible.
Agreed, they seem to spread the wealth every year
Spread the wealths is always most likely. That looks good.
BlacKKKlansman: Picture, Director, Adapted, Film Editing
A Star is Born: Actor, Supporting Actor, song
Green Book: Original Screenplay
Roma: Foreign Film, Cinematography
The Favourite: Costume, Production Design, Hairstyling
If Beale Street Could talk: Supporting Actress
The Wife: Actress
First Man: Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
that easy.
I’m guessing you have 6 or 7 Best Picture nominees listed above:
A Star is Born
Green Book
Roma
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
The Favourite
MAYBE Blackkklansman can make it in, but I doubt it. I’m guessing Widows is your 8th.
I don’t think BlacKKKlansman is in either.
Have you seen it? Have you seen the actual political climate? It’s a lock for the nom and the frontrunner for the win.
As I’ve said several times on here I’ve seen it and I loved it. Just don’t think he ends up making the cut. But good to know it’s FOR SURE a lock. (Eyeroll)
you obviously didn’t think for a second who’s going to campaign for BKM… and how they’re going to remind the AMPAS they snubbed BOTH Do the Right Thing and Malcom X and even Inside Man and The 25th Hour…
THIS IS NOT A DRILL. Taron Egerton just came out on Instagram. My gay self is shewk.
The AD comments section is such a gay fiesta lol. I love it :DD
WOW. I saw the post but let’s hear him say the words.
When someone on Insta asked “Does this mean he has a boyfriend?” Taron liked the comment. If this turns out to be a joke or something I will be so freaking mad. I need confirmation!
Agreed. I have a few straight friends that tease like this kind of stuff a lot on social media. It could be that. Or it could be that he is bi/gay. I don’t care either way. But yes, let him say the words. Until then this story is a whole lot of nothing other than a cute post.
He didn’t ACTUALLY say he was gay or bi. As much as I’d love it, nothing about that story actually states he came out. Hinted at? Sure, but nothing concrete.
I mean, he just created his Instagram account three days ago and one of the first five pictures he posts is of a guy captioned “Cutie. My boy [heart]” and tells commenters “he’s mine and mine only” and “likes” a comment where someone asks him if this means he has a boyfriend. If he’s NOT gay (or bi) then this is some expert-level trolling.
I didn’t know he had an Instagram. I’m really tardy on that app. I’ll get over there and do a complete investigation.
*is back*
All I learned is that my pretend husband (Luke Evans) has a new(?) boyfriend, or I wasn’t paying attention. This one’s ok I guess.
p.s. Some days, Instagram makes me want to tell Jared Leto that he’s no Henry Cavill.
He didn’t have one until a few days ago… and then one of the first five pictures he posts is of “his boy.” That’s why people are reading it. If it was one of hundreds of photos on his account it might just be a joke, but this all feels planned to be a low-key way to come out.
I actually don’t know anything about his private life, but if this isn’t a surprise to those in the know then I would interpret it that way.
Just saw the trailer to green book, that Toronto film festival winner. Fingers crossed on vIggo Mortenson and mahershala Ali for lead actor and supporting actor
A Star is born has that amazing box office going for it and the more money it makes the more likely of a contender it will be.
Moonlight vs La La Land
I’ve been saying it for a month now but everyone is underestimating Cooper’s Best Director chances. They keep listing Cuaron and Chazelle as the front runners, but I don’t see it that way. Chazelle literally just won and it was for a movie that was waaay more popular (I won’t say better as to not ruffle feathers). They are not gonna award him again this soon, especially given the fact he was the youngest person to ever win Best Director. It just ain’t happening, so you can cross him off your list. As for Cuaron, he too won not that long ago, and we really don’t know how Roma is gonna pan out for awards considering the whole Netflix thing and then it being a black and white foreign film. The thing people keep saying is, “but Cooper’s loved by the actors so they will award him for acting.” Okay…I’m not disputing that, but if they love him enough for acting they can love him enough for Director too. The only threat I even see against Cooper would be Spike Lee, and even if Spike were to take Director, Star could still take Picture and Actor or Actress. But again, the past shows its more common for an actor to win director of actor, so I don’t see why people are finding it so difficult to accept in this situation.
Roma is getting a theater release in December. I get what you’re saying, but I think Cooper is already a solid frontrunner in Best Actor for now and that will be his prize other than potentially Best Picture.
He’ll win either BA or BD
It’s not difficult to accept this situation, but it’s clear he’s getting an early rally to win for his performance more than his direction. It could be the other way around, but I’m not sure of that just yet. If Laurence Olivier and Roberto Benigni (who won acting and lost Director to someone who had won Director before five years earlier) can do it, than Cooper definitely can!
I had forgotten about Benigni’s situation. I guess that could happen.
I accept your situation.
I say, look out for Barry Jenkins, who didn’t win two years ago.
I agree with you but best actor is literally so weak this year though, it would be so much easier to reward him there. Effectively, Cooper’s only competition in BA is Bale who already has his oscar and Cooper has the SAG win as a lock. I think giving Cooper 4 oscar noms and 1 win in BA is already a huge reward.
I agree with you about Chazelle, not so much with Cuaron. Gravity was a technical directorial feat. But Roma has shown him to be a complete auteur. I do think it’s crazy that yet another Three Amigo is winning BD again. And back to back again!
Remember, the director’s branch can be very elitist and snooty and it’s not impossible that Cooper might even be snubbed as BD.
There’s that theory that one of the reasons that Affleck got snubbed for Argo was that he showed his abs in his movie. Ditto for Cooper.
After seeing ASIB twice now, its so hard not to see Lady Gaga winning — she is a force of nature in that movie. I also feel like this movie is the one where everyone falls in love with Cooper–its impossible not to after seeing this. I just don’t see Claire Foy even getting nominated for such a poorly written hand wringing wife role. Not her fault but not good.
Gaga is such a force. She’s a story.
Close is also a story. Big one.
Then there’s Colman, a charmer who might win most of the critics awards.
Verrrrry interesting to see how this all plays out.
It’s clearly a three way race right now.
She’s gonna get the Oscar for Song tho right? They still have that category don’t they? If so, she’s taken care of and they can give Actress to someone else.
I think it would be very odd, indeed, if Gaga didn’t walk home with an Oscar for Best Song on Oscar night.
One of my most favorite categories this year is Foreign Language Film. I mean it’s a bloodbat! Having seen most of the frontrunners sans Roma and other relevant titles, even films which were not selected as official selection of their respective countries, Foreign Language this year is an embarrassment of riches! Personally rooting for Cold War. Really hoping for it to get another Cinematography nod, or even a win.
I just rewatched Cold War a few days ago and it is so perfect. In a just world Joanna Kulig would be one of the frontrunners for best actress
^ This. Kulig gives the best lead performance by an actress this year.
I have to champion Loane Balthasar in Sarah Plays a Werewolf because that might help some individual people see the movie but since that movie seems to not be getting a US release in 2018, Kulig is moving to my number one spot as well
Agree! Kulig is one of the best actress performance of this year. The transformation of her character is so complex and she gave physical and emotional justice to it with sublime perfection. Shout out should also be given to the Production Design. It does help in building this world for the two lovers. But really the Cinematography and Pawel Pawlikowksi’s direction were just so inspired it’s one of the best I’ve seen this year!
Can´t wait to see Cold War, since Pawlikowskis latest – Ida – remains my favourite film this decade (very close second: Call me by your name).
Besides, the german entry, “Werk ohne Autor” by von Donnersmarck, received some pretty harsh reviews. I skipped it because I didn´t want to waste time and money… Hope to see “Burning” somewhere sometime!
I love Burning as well! Lee Chang-dong should make films more often. Another favorite of mine this year is Long Day’s Journey into Night which blew everything I’ve seen this year Foreign, local, or Hollywood. Such a delicate, exquisite filmmaking. Too bad China passed over it for a mediocre Hollywood copycat crowd-pleaser action flick.
Also looking forward to see von Donnersmarck’s Never Look Away. I’ve read good reviews out of Venice so I’d consider it as part of this year’s embarrasment of riches in this category.
And yes, Ida will probably go down as one of my favorite and arguable one of the best films of this decade. Cold War is on the same breadth yet so different thematically. Looking forward to hear what you thought of it.
I need to see Long Day’s Journey Into Night again because I understood about 80% of the already very open dialog in the first half (a subtitle thing that wasn’t there anymore after the movie theater scene) but I agree that it’s by far one of the best movies of the year and I think it’s a lock to win my best cinematography award next year
It deserves a mandatory second viewing, the chance to relish every single frame, it’s even more sublime the second time around! The camerawork was both immersive and breathtaking and the moody composition complements the emotions of the story like the camera is acting in itself! I even forgot that the second half was in 3D. I’m not sure with the subtitles, but from my screenings, the subtitles were still there even after the movie theater scene. Love both the Cinematography of Long Day’s Journey and Cold War. Looking forward to what Roma has to offer but the first two are so far among the best lensed this year by a hundred miles!
I can imagine. I still remember the most random shots where I could barely understand what they’re talking about but simply riveted by the visual storytelling in even somewhat plainly structured shots (I for example vividly remember this long master shot where two characters talk in a doorway/hall with this orange/red hue, the previous time I remember being so blown away by such a scene that is at its structure so mundane was with Uncle Boonmee). Bi Gan is a major talent and I can’t wait to see what he makes next (or see Kaili Blues which is apparently as good as this one)
And, by the way, the subtitle thing wasn’t in any way related to the movie, it was rather something that had to do with how the festival in general was showing the movies with subtitles in two languages (one on the screen and the other in a special box below the screen) and how the special program I was part of played the movies in normal theatres where they didn’t have the extra boxes. But when the 3D hit in, they had both subtitles on the screen because I’d imagine the special box wouldn’t work that well with people wearing 3D glasses
Curious to hear what you and others here would put in contention for a list of best films of the decade? Here’s some that come to mind for me:
– Certified Copy (Kiarostami, 2010)
– Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (Ceylan, 2011)
– A Separation (Farhadi, 2011)
– The Turin Horse (Tarr, 2011)
– Amour (Haneke, 2012)
– Holy Motors (Carax, 2012)
– Hard to Be a God (German, 2013)
– Ida (Pawlikowski, 2013)
– Leviathan (Zvyagintsev, 2014)
– Son of Saul (Nemes, 2015)
– Toni Erdmann (Ade, 2016)
– Foxtrot (Maoz, 2017)
– Burning (Lee, 2018)
Some honourable mentions (apparently 2013 was amazing):
– Mysteries of Lisbon (Ruiz, 2010)
– Of Gods and Men (Beauvois, 2010)
– The Tree of Life (Malick, 2011)
– The Great Beauty (Sorrentino, 2013)
– Inside Llewyn Davis (Coen, 2013)
– Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013)
– The Forbidden Room (Maddin, 2015)
I love all the ones I’ve seen of those you listed (I haven’t seen Mysteries of Lisbon, Hard to Be a God or The Forbidden Room yet).
Here are mine (I’m disturbed by how American this list is):
-The Social Network (Fincher, 2010)
-The Tree of Life (Malick, 2011)
-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Alfredson, 2011)
-Certified Copy (Kiarostami, 2011)
-The Master (Anderson, 2012)
-Moonrise Kingdom (Anderson, 2012)
-Her (Jonze, 2013)
-Inside Llewyn Davis (Coen and Coen, 2013)
-The Wolf of Wall Street (Scorsese, 2013)
-Boyhood (Linklater, 2014)
-Inherent Vice (Anderson, 2014)
-Carol (Haynes, 2015)
-Mad Max: Fury Road (Miller, 2015)
-Moonlight (Jenkins, 2016)
-Jackie (Larraín, 2016)
-Silence (Scorsese, 2016)
-The Lobster (Lanthimos, 2016)
-O.J.: Made in America (Edelman, 2016)
-Call Me by Your Name (Guadagnino, 2017)
-Twin Peaks: the Return (Lynch, 2017)
-Phantom Thread (Anderson, 2017)
-A Ghost Story (Lowery, 2017)
-Burning (Lee, 2018)
AwardsDaily should make an article about this so we can all share our thoughts. But for now… as making a best of the decade list is tricky. I’ll the films I saw this year some time. So for now…
-Ida (Pawlikowski, 2013)
-The Taste of Money (Im, 2012)
-The Great Beauty (Sorrentino, 2013)
-The Illusionist (Chomet, 2010)
-Call Me by Your Name (Guadagnino, 2017)
-The Lobster (Lanthimos, 2015)
-Birdman (Iñárritu, 2014)
-Ka Oryang (Dalena, 2011)
-The Grand Budapest Hotel (Anderson, 2014)
-The Assassin (Hou, 2015)
-La La Land (Chazelle, 2016)
-Crimson Peak (del Toro, 2015)
-The Past (Farhadi, 2013)
-Poetry (Lee, 2010)
-The Act of Killing (Oppenheimer, 2012)
-Carol (Haynes, 2015)
-Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (2010, Weerasethakul)
-Faust (Sukorov, 2011)
Oh and yes, Holy Motors (Carax, 2012)! How did I forget that?
Mid90s was pretty good …
Lucas Hedges is everywhere right now. They showed the trailers for Ben is Back and Boy Erased and then he’s great in Mid90s too.
Except the issue is that he’s not the standout in any of his movies.
I don’t like him.
What about Carey Mulligan in “Wildlife”? Is she really out of the conversation?
She really might win several critics awards or get follow-up and special mentions, IFC is trying to push her and she is doing sort of campaign.
If A Star Is Born ends up full steam ahead for Picture/Actor/Actress, it wouldn’t be surprising for the Oscars to strategically cut off criticism at the pass–Cuaron/Lee, Ali, and King taking the other major categories. Which (no surprise, as I’m arguably a part of TWITTER™) I’d be perfectly fine with, as I love them all
ASiB is winning Song and probably Supporting Actor. Nothing else. Well, maybe some sound. My only doubt with ASiB is whose song they will award… Cooper’s or Gaga’s or do a salomonic choice by picking up the one that they co-wrote?
My headache comes with Cooper. They may want to give him one… but which one? Producer, Director, Actor, Writer, Song-wrtiter? My bet is they give him song, and snub him from a nod at both director and writting. That way, it’s 3-1. Gaga 2-0 (but gets well positioned in case she comes back for a 3rd time at Oscar night, to win, feeling “due” and “snubbed”, either as actress or song-writer)
Cooper wins actor. I think the momentum will be too big to stop. The Academy wants him and we want him to win so it’s going to happen. Critics will have a say in that one. I don’t know what BFCA or BAFTA will do but GG, SAG will go for Cooper and that will seal the deal. Mortensen is a good second but his performance is not undeniable and Cooper will have deserved it way more.
Shows what you know. They only submitted three songs for contention and none of them are written by Cooper. All three are Gaga and other co-writers. And then only two of those three songs can be nominated under the new rules. So you are gonna have to adjust your predictions.
no, I did not know which songs they have submitted… by avoiding Cooper, they’re directing the AMPAS into giving him some bone in the big ones or completely shunning him. Gaga, in exchange, is securing one Oscar, but likely losing Actress.
Which is the third one besides Shallow and I’ll Never Love Again?
Always Remember Us This Way
It seems The Girl in the Spiders Web is getting good reviews with many praising Foy, and while I don’t think she could make it in Actress, it could boost her status in the Supporting field.
That’d be nice. I’d love it if she won for First Man, somehow.
Over all of the Supporting Actress candidates? I think I’d currently take King or Tavira over Foy (though I love her work in The Crown), and that’s having not yet seen The Favourite or Vice (in which I expect to love Stone/Weisz/Adams on at least some level).
Who is Alvira? Did you mean Marina de Tavira? Unfortunately, I don’t think she’s happening (except if they go nuts for Roma).
While King is the early frontrunner for sure (such a brilliant actress), I would not underestimate Foy whose win would be a nice way to recognise First Man overall AND I definitely wouldn’t underestimate previous winners in flashy af roles, Kidman (Boy Erased), Portman (Vox Lux) and Stone (The Favourite), not to mention yet unseen turns from Oscar-less previous nominees Amy Adams (Vice) and Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots). I also really hope Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Rachel McAdams (Disobedience) and Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) will be viable contenders.
For what it’s worth, I have a hunch it will be Robbie in the end and just a side note, I will be pissed if the Academy gives it to Amy Adams for a wife role while having ignored her in iconic lead roles (Enchanted, Arrival). My hope is she will win lead next year for The Woman in the Window, flashy hitchcockian star vehicle directed by Joe Wright who is great with actors (Keira Knightley’s first nod, Saoirse Ronan’s first nod, Gary Oldman’s first win).
🙂 You have to understand, I’m not as lucky as you guys, to be able to have seen everything (or almost everything) by this point. (Only the more box-office friendly big movies get to my city, among other things.) Of what I’ve seen, Foy was by far the best, and she was amazing even in the absolute, which is why definitely rooting for her right now. But I might run into another performance I like more, of course – The Favourite seems like a candidate for providing one of those, indeed.
I’ve been a fan of Foy’s work for a decade now (Little Dorrit), I think her breakthrough success and awards for The Crown were long overdue and I would love to see her receive her first Oscar nomination this year for First Man in the supporting actress category and while make no mistake I WILL watch The Girl in the Spider’s Web on opening weekend, the early reviews could be better, 55 on Metacritic is nothing to write home about. Hopefully the scores will improve.
I hadn’t checked MC yet. Just saw it had a 73% on RT
Does Thom Yorke have any chance for a score nomination for Suspiria?
Doubtful.
I had no idea he was doing the Score. Did that movie come out? It’s like almost Halloween.
I think it’s in limited release in the States right now
That makes so little sense. My local theater is playing freakin’ HOCUS POCUS. I give up!
And apparently Burning is playing somewhere already and nobody seems to be talking about it. These movies just seem to float by and it’s a shame because they’re (or at least Burning is) much more notable than most of the stuff that’s getting all the attention
Burning was SO good. The ending …
So many great foreign films this year.
SO GOOD. That dancing scene at sunset and the ending are two of my favourite scenes of 2018.
I think I saw tweets from TIFF. IDK what’s going on. I’ve only been 1/2 paying attention but now that I am it seems like this year is a hot mess in terms of predicting. Is it that the festival circuit left a lot to be desired? Because I usually think it’s all over by this time with a clear frontrunner.
I mean it would be great if a “real movie” like ASIB took it for a change, but I just thought that wasn’t possible anymore.
It’s awful — that’s why.
Is it? I mean I usually say the original is my favorite horror movie, when we’re using a strict definition so I don’t really expect much. But I’ve lowered my expectations to just being glad that people admit when they’re remaking a movie. I did intend to see it.
there’s something inherently wrong in not including BlackKklansman for Adapted Screenplay’s shortlist… it’s probably the most locked of its noms, along with Directing.
atm the only frontrunners are Alfonso Cuaron for Best Director, Gaga for Best Song and Bradley Cooper for Best Actor. Cooper has got this in the bag, SAG is a given. I don’t know if Sasha knows this, but there is so much support from actors on social media for Cooper eg: Selma Hayek, Anne Hathway etc have all highly praised it.
on the contrary, I think Lee for Director, and Mortensen/Bale for Actor. Gaga, is correct, she’s frontrunner… for song.
Again, don’t underestimate Bradley Cooper. His appeal among Academy voters is evident, and his performance checks all the boxes of what actors need to do to win. This includes (passion project, nice guy in real life, does an accent, change-of-pace, drunk scene, tragic, etc.) It worked for Jeff Bridges. And no, it’s not an overdue narrative, it’s a coming at the right time award like it was for Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant.
Cooper wins Best Song. That’s it, he’s Academy Award winner Bradley Cooper and call it a day. See? That easy.
You must have missed the memo. The studio only submitted “The Shallow,” “Always Remember Us This Way,” and “I’ll Never Love Again” for Academy consideration of Oscar nominations, and a maximum two can be nominated. Bradley Cooper did not write any of those songs. So I mean this respectfully when I say this, that’s now an invalid argument.
Literally every one of his posts is anti-ASIB and on every one people have reminded him of the songs that ASIB submitted….doesn’t matter to him.
Everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion. The only thing about Mr. Alonso that is making my scratch my head is I think all his predictions are purely from the gut, instead of actually looking at where momentum is right now. I don’t know anyone else who genuinely thinks BlacKKKlansman is winning BP and BD. Could it? Maybe. But I view it was this year’s Dunkirk, an early release that we think could be the big winner at the Oscars, and while it performs strong in terms of nominations, other films become bigger contenders as the fall comes. Dunkirk was the early favorite in August, but then you had films like Shape of Water and Three Billboards gain momentum in the fall. I think A Star is Born has so much momentum on its side (and a fall release) that I think the momentum it has right now will carry it into some large wins.
Thanks for the laughs. Let’s come back to this thread in February.
of course. I still remember when in April 2002 I pointed out Almodovar was winning Original Screenplay for “Talk to her”, everybody laughed, I explained, everybody got hilarious, then Oscar came and Almodovar won. The difference between most and I, is I am no fanboy. I judge, not ridden by what the marketing is telling me, but what AMPAS normally considers, and they NEVER gave an Oscar to a 4th version of a retelling of a classic story they already awarded with 8 Oscars including Best Picture (My Fair Lady). Funny how no pundit is reminding you of these facts… in exchange, they’re blinding you about the fact that whoever wins DGA and GG Director is likely to win Best Picture at the Oscars… and guess who are the names best positioned to do so? Only two: Alfonso Cuarón (who just won not long ago and probably will get Foreign Film and Original Screenplay, plus never a Foreign Language film ever won Best Picture) and Spike Lee (who’s overdue, never won in competition and has a film that is resisting comparisons all year long, and is a big spit in the face of the Trump administration). I wonder how this is going to turn out, lol.
Yeah, Bradley Cooper is beginning to look like a solid frontrunner, there are many Gold Derby experts who predicted others early on but are now switching over to him like Anne Thompson, Tom O’Neil, Peter Travers, and Edward Douglas. While SAG could be slightly still competitive, it’s beginning to look like his to lose. I’ll say what’s really a given is he’s going to win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama. He’s wins both, done deal!
Oh and I don’t know but I think lately the academy has been doing good justice to late December releases. Look at American hustle, American sniper, the girl with the Dragon tattoo, all the money in the world, into the woods, the wrestler..i could go on and on but all were nominated for Oscars of some sort and at the very least for acting. So yeah movies like Vice, Mary poppins, Vox lux, mary queen of Scots stand a good chance at making a splash just as much as anything else so its all early and fair game to me.. history is showing that if they deserve the nomination.. December release or not lol… they’ll get it.. And those are usually the movies that make those last minute surprise nominees that we don’t catch… smh..
I wouldn’t consider any voters who gave Silence just a cinematography nomination at least partly because of its release date as being just to late releases
True. Selma is another such example. But he still makes a good point. Some get nominated as much as they deserve, or even more (the two movies with ‘American’ in their titles, out of his examples), some get nominated less or a lot less than they deserve. Maybe there’s a slight tendency towards the latter, but it’s not 100% clear.
I’m confused. Mary Poppins Returns is the photo used for this article (the big UNSEENS), but then Mary Poppins Returns isn’t mentioned in the article at all, except for a few nomination predictions down below. I guess Sasha really thinks it has absolutely no shot at Picture, Blunt, Miranda, a host of other noms elsewhere. Hmm.
You don’t consider Michelle Yeoh a contender for Supporting Actress?
I saw The Sisters Brothers last weekend and I think it’s being underestimated for its chances at an Adapted Screenplay nom despite its poor box office. The character writing and humor were great.
Anybody else here think it has a shot at an Adapted Screenplay nomination?
I loved the book but i found the pacing of the movie just too slow, and none of the characters came alive for me.
I don’t think it has a chance at all. But I loved the movie. It’s my second favorite of the year so far. It out Coened the Coen Brothers. Although, I haven’t seen Buster Scruggs, I’m just guessing.
Guyss I’m so clueless this season I’m not lovin it lol
Hey – so we’re actually getting a Boca-River Libertadores final… 🙂 Amazing! I’ve been having a bit of a family situation these last few weeks, and, as a result, I was too tired to stay up for either of the semifinal legs this year (I watched highlights the next day), but I was so amazed to see the day after that second leg that Gallardo’s boys had done it AGAIN, with another fantastic comeback… I plan on watching that one in full, at my leisure, as soon as I’m not so busy anymore (which should be later today) – I don’t even mind knowing the score beforehand, since I thus at least know there’s a happy ending. And I don’t know who scored, and when, either, which is nice.
It’s so great for this amazing generation of River Plate to make another final, after last year’s semifinal loss, which was so brutal…
So, anyway, may the best team win in the final! I’m hoping that’ll be River, of course, but if it’s you guys, I won’t be bitter at all. You know I’m not the type. 🙂 Most importantly, I hope we get a fantastic double, worthy of a the first Superclasico in a Libertadores final!
O.K., off topic rant over! 🙂
Tomorrow we have an election in this nation. An important one. I can’t even focus on that because this is all I’m interested in. It’s kind of sad lol.
🙂 It’s never sad to be passionate about something, in my opinion…
I think 2-time Academy Award winner Jenny Beaven will get a Best Costume Design nomination this year for Disney’s “The Nutcracker and the Four Realms”. (It smells like the kind of nomination Jacqueline Durran earned for last year’s “Beauty and the Beast”.) Beaven’s work on the new film looks amazing from the trailer I saw last week.
My feelings…
1) Yalitza Aparicio will get a nom, pushed by the critics love for the film.
2) As good as Roma is supposed to be, it wont win BP ( I feel it lacks the “narrative” , would be enough voters interested in “the ordinary life of a mexican maid in the 70`s”? ) I guess they`ll reward the film with cinematography and foreign language
3) Bird Box trailer looks good and the film screening at AFI is a good sign. Bullock is loved and if she is good enough she could easily crack the top 5.
4) Eastwood and Bale will get nominated, either could steal Cooper/Mortensen momentum.
5) Vox Lux trailer finally dropped and confirm what i expected. Portman will be nominated in supporting and probably win. The film is screening in most festivals including AFI. It has a timely subject matter and artsy execution. Most critics loved it. Neon proved last year they know how to campaign (and I Tonya wasnt THAT good). Could get nominations across the board (BD, Cassidy, original screenplay, editing, score, costumes, cinematography and maybe song).
6) The Favourite will be the most divisive of the bunch. It will get many noms but seems too weird to win, plus it also lacks the “narative” (a comedic lesbian love triangle?, no way….)
7) If Beale could talk has the best chances right know. I could see it winning BD, adapted screenplay, and maybe score.
You think Vox Lux has a shot beyond Portman (especially in Director and Screenplay) and yet you think The Favourite will be “too weird”? Having seen the former, it’s technically strong and well-acted but it’s exceptionally violent and strange and divisive (it’s only at 84 MC so far, so it’s a bit misleading to say that most critics “loved” it), while The Favourite has been adored (91).
Really hope The Favourite to be a strong contender (i`m a fan of Lanthimos movies BTW). I think it`s currently the frontrunner for original screenplay. I just think it lacks the “important narrative” much needed to win BP and voters may consider it “light” . Dark comedies just arent doing well with the academy recently. On the other side, i`m seeing Vox Lux as a dark horse. It has only 1 critic at MT below 75 (of course we`ll have to wait to release date to have a better sense but reactions from festivals are quite strong). Part fable (Shape Of Water) part horror film (Get Out), Birdman-esque takes, plus timely subject. As far as the violence shown much was said about The Revenant, Dyango Unchained, The Hurt Locker, No country…, The Departed, 127 hours, Inglorious Bastards, so on, and they managed to get noms if not wins. Anyway, it`s just a feeling, maybe only a wish, It`s only october and may change my mind….
Voters will want to reward Beale Street so King has BSA sown up!! Also, I’m thinking Streep for MPR.
The supporting actress lineup will always be a mess until the nomination is out and done. That is so cool and also confusingly great. I am rooting for an alternative lineup like:
Elizabeth Debicki – Widows
Linda Cardellini – Green Book
Marina de Tavira – Roma
A Quiet Place – Emily Blunt
Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians
Alt: Rachel McAdams – Disobedience, Natalie Portman – Vox Lux, Mackenzie Davis – Tully
A possible supporting nomination for Meryl Streep?…sure seems as though MPR will be a hit!
Question: Has there ever been a movie released late during the Awards season with no buzz, that has actually made it into the best picture field? I ask this because of my interest in Ronan and Robbie getting nominated
Depends on what you mean by no buzz. The big Short had about the buzz that Mary queen of Scotts has now and almost won the whole thing
Million Dollar Baby wrapped production in July 2004 and while it had the pedigree, it wasn’t widely expected to join the 2004 Oscar race but it did in the last minute (released in mid-December, no festival screenings beforehand) and went all the way.
I see the Mary Poppins picture is finally being used, but yet it’s only being listed in 3 CATEGORIES now, down from the previous five. The crow population better be worried, because there’s going to be a lot of them being served when the nominations are announced. Great googly-moogly, Emily Blunt not even listed as a contender????? Oh the humanity!
Yeah like Into the Woods dominated the Oscars with its three nominations and zero wins. Hmm, and this too is a Rob Marshall musical produced by Disney starring Emily Blunt and Meryl Streep as is being released at Christmas.
I mean can we all not agree that Rob Marshall has been on a steady decline ever since his Chicago debut? Memoirs of a Geisha, Nine, Pirates: Stranger Tides, Into the Woods….
Except that MPR has been seen and the reaction is PHENOMENAL and the movie is there. Into The Woods was middling Sondheim with an unmemorable score (one song does not a musical make), but you’re right about Marshall being in decline. Guess what? He’s baaaaack.
So I’m not saying you’re wrong (I know nothing right) but be careful about early reactions, before reviews are out there can be really reactions with carefully curated opinions that are made to boost hype for a film. That and early reactions tend to be positive even if that doesn’t happen. Until full reviews come out/ masses of people see it nobody really knows anything
What musical are you referring to? Into the Woods? Cause that doesn’t sound right.
Yes, Into The Woods.
Wow, Chicago was his debut! I hadn’t realized…
He did direct a TV movie version of Annie before Chicago so I don’t know if that counts
I only count theatrical releases – seems like the right thing to do. Not sure how people in the industry look at these things…
That’s how they seem to deal with it as well, I just personally have never really understood why the theatrical release is what makes a movie a movie except for its simplicity as a defining character
Of course, I agree. But you have to have some definition, for organization purposes – and this one is, indeed, a very logical and simple one…
I actually love Nine in its dazzling, Fellini-esque glory. Say whatever you wanna say about Memoirs of a Geisha, there a lot to be desired in the writing yes but if you have that stunning Cinematography, unforgettable Original score by Williams, breathtaking costume and production designs and achingly flawless yet underrated performance by Gong Li then it all kinda made up to the minuses. All of those ofourse were the vision of Rob Marshall. People just have so much expectations of him after Chicago but a second look at these two movies made me appreciate them even more.
Mary Queen of Scots has already been screening…but the film is under strict embargo until it premieres at AFI. I’ve read many comments citing Saoirse Ronan as ”excellent”, ”outstanding” in her portrayal, so I would watch out for her. I’ve also read comments from early test screenings that both Ronan & Robbie are amazing respectively, again Ronan as the stand-out!
Margot Robbie almost won Best Actress last year? Since when? She was in fourth place at best iirc, behind McDormand, Ronan, and Hawkins.
I agree with this statement! I would’ve ranked McDormand at the top, then Hawkins, then Ronan, then Robbie, and then Streep. I also agreed 100% with the all the acting winners this past year.
To me, 1. Hawkins, 2. Streep, 3. Robbie, 4. Ronan, 5. McDormand
Yes, she almost won even though she almost never won. Did she even win one award last year? her nomination was in question until very late.
In fact, nobody almost won an acting award last year. The winners won, everybody else lost, and that was that. No suspense.
Exactly. The same four winners won every single major awards. Nobody else “almost” won anything.
In hindsight, it’s pretty funny to think about how those races went… but, as you know, I didn’t find it very funny at the time. 🙂
I think mortal engines will get a few techs nominations if Christian rivers delivers a canvas masterpiece. I think green book is heading straight to Oscar night. Black panther and Mary poppins returns will get the most nominations since abc tv is a part of disney
Abc doesn’t have any say on nominations so that won’t affect anything. That is a good point about Mortal engines though. We also need to watch or for fantastic beasts in a bunch of techs, it got a few nominations and even won costume design last time
You totally just created an Oscar watching horror movie and its sequel.
The Mysteries of the Unseen where Oscar pundits and publicistis commit mass suicide when a late breaking film comes in and steals the Oscar race. The sequel, The Mysteries of the Unseen Remain can be about those who remained to soldier on the next year who in the end became so full of fear that they started to kill each off and snack on the… wait for it… remains.
You’re welcome. Get writing.
p.s. I keep forgetting Return to Marwen. Probably because every time Zemekis makes a movie his CGI creations creep me the F out and scare me off.
No Willem Dafoe?
Spike over Barry Jenkins? I hope so, I’d love to see Spike and Peter Ferrelly both nominated for Directing, both have put in the years and have given us some memorable films.
Well, can push about directors how ever they want but I believe Jenkins is sitting in a very good. I place his film as second favourite and it will likely as “Roma” might stumble in acting. Beale is favourite for Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress and also has a higher MC score and has to festivals and done well. Oh my god! we do this ever year. We should know it by now. “Green book” has MC score that is too low to really do anything. Yes, I get that it is really strong in acting and it’s screenplay is interesting but it’s not going to be anywhere like winner. It is crowd pleaser which tend to better in categories like acting and that’s it will do. Blackkkclansman could do well but it’s an early release and it doesn’t have strong acting. I think it needs to be pushed to get there. Beale is way ahead of them because it ticks a lot more boxes.
I loved BlacKKKlansman and think it SHOULD be up for a slew or awards but I don’t think it will be. MAYBE pic and even less MAYBE Lee and zero acting noms. Just my gut.
If Ronan and blunt end up making it in this is just a lesson learned that no one should really be predicting until December at the very least.. or until all the movies come out lol
Now that would be interesting. I think a lot of them are still up in the air. I don’t think there’s a lock for actress(may Close? hopefully). But there is two actors are definite lock in acting: Cooper and Mortensen. Ali is the only lock in supporting actor and King is the only lock in supporting actress. Cuaron is maybe the only lock in directing.
Fun fact, if Rami Malek gets a nomination, it will be for the lowest rated movie since I Am Sam in 2001 to get a nomination for Best Actor. I Am Sam received a 28 MC rating and Rhapsody currently has a 49.
I wonder what’s the lowest grossing movie to get a nomination since 2000!?
Did you mean lowest grossing as in the least amount of money made in theaters?
Yes!! Maybe Animal Kingdom with Weaver?
That wasn’t nominated for Best Pic. It should be an easy stat to find. Give me a sec.
How about making it harder and include the 4 acting categories to your search to find the lowest grossing movie? ;P
maybe Amour?
Do we meet grossing internationally of just in the US? People argue about which to use around here all the time?
I think it would definitely be a foreign movie but then that would really make which box office (domestic or international) to use more important.
Critical score-wise it’s probably The Blind Side or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
Best Picture aside, probably Suicide Squad
For the females, the lowest rated movie in recent memory to get a Best Actress nom is Elizabeth: The Golden Age with a MC rating of 45. For some reason, there are more lower rated films that get actress nominations than actor. But right now the lowest one in the race would be Destroyer with a MC of 64 which is kinda funny since everyone is talking about The Wife being a weak film and yet that has a MC score of 77.
Only the hardcore Gaga fans would want you to believe The Wife is a weak film, everyone remotely familiar with critical scores is aware that is was very well-received.
Thank you.
A weak film that has a high MC score? What does that even mean? it seems like you’re talking nonsense!
That’s my point. It obviously isn’t weak but I’ve seen several comments on this site from people who have seen it and said so. Clearly not the general consensus, so take that for what it’s worth.
/r/whoosh
another fabulous little stat from circusfolk
i always seek out your posts for these oddball nuggets!
I’m a huge Queen fan, but after the reviews I switched Malek on my GoldDerby prediction page to Dafoe for a film that is getting much more favorable reviews.
I still think Malek has a good shot though just because of the content of the reviews – they hate the movie but almost uniformly love Malek in it
Yes, but the only way to overcome bad reviews is that like the actor. Good acting in bad movie will get credit as long as they know and like the actor. Think Jlaw in “Joy”, Blanchet in “Elizabeth 2” or Penn in “I am Sam”.
I can agree with that, I do feel like he’s not as well known as those examples but he has been building lately in the amount please know him. He recently won an Emmy for Mr robot and while most of his movies have been Indies there have been a lot of acclaimed films that may have slowly been building good will to here. Plus even if the movie isn’t liked it’s at least high profile.
No, he did well by all accounts. He is the only good thing in the film, apparently. He has not damaged reputation. The film was in trouble from the very beginning. I saw the trailer and people were already it was no showing the true Freddy Mercury. Too bad!
Serious question – does the poor critical performance of “Beautiful Boy” knock Chalamet out of the race?
He’s absolutely fantastic in the movie and if the box office is decent then I think he should be ok.
I think we should all stop listening to those eggheads and go to the movies. It looks great from the trailer and I shall not be deterred!
A movie could suck and still have a good acting peformance.
Yes, but they have to love the actor in a badly reviewed film.
Wait, is Roma really a contender in production design and sound? I’ve heard things about its sound work but it sounded like something extremely subtle in a way that voters might easily ignore. But if it’s really contending in production design as well, I might need to rethink all my predictions
Also, just throwing out something I just found out: every time in the previous 13 years the cinematography Oscar winner has won an ADG category.
Its always interesting to me to see what December come in and sweep in a lot of nominations out of nowhere. Nobody saw Phantom Thread coming.
I’m really curious about The Mule. Is it as great as the trailer?
Uh, that little film coming out of nowhere in December is called Mary Poppins Returns and it will have a minimun of 12 nominations.
Your Best Actor predictions continue to be questionable. Last week you wisely eliminated Washington from the Best Actor possibilities, but now he’s back. Meanwhile, you list Rami Malik and Matthew McConaughey as contenders when you argue that Best Actor is currently closely connected to Best Picture and those two pictures have negative ratings overall, especially Bohemian Rhapsody. And get you continue to exclude Robert Redford and Clint Eastwood. It’s baffling.
And I don’t understand why she’s clinging to Viggo for the win. He definitely could, but it seems she’s one of very few people who thinks he’ll win. Only 83 people total think he’ll win on GoldDerby compared to multiple actors who have hundreds predicting they’ll win like Gosling, Bale, and Malek, and then there’s Bradley Cooper who 1,432 think will win as of right now. And again, I know it’s very early and anything can happen. But I think Cooper easily wins the Drama Actor Golden Globe and has a high chance of winning SAG too.
There’s no way Gosling is winning this. His role is waaaaaay too low key and the movie, which is excellent, fails in one respect, which is in explaining what made Armstrong tick under that surface inscrutability. I know three people who saw Green Book at TIFF and the audience was ecstatic over the movie. I think you underestimate Viggo, who somehow beat out a bunch of contenders and got a nomination for Captain Fantastic a few years ago.
Oh I know Gosling is not winning it this year. I thought he was great in First Man and will definitely get nominated, but it’s a performance that will stand out so much to actually win. I’m not underestimating anyone, because this early it’s anyone’s game.
I loved First Man overall, but i seriously wonder whether Gosling will get in. I can easily see him left out for flashier performances. I thought Claire Foy was superb though — i’d love to see her win.
*won’t stand out.
Don’t get me wrong, Viggo is a lock to be nominated, but it doesn’t feel like his year. Unless he wins SAG.
I cannot understand why Sasha keeps clinging to Washington. I understand she may have loved him in that movie but he’s not even in the top 20. McConaughey is also not happening. And I suspect Malek’s goose is cooked. I personally do not think Redford and Eastwood have a chance, but i’d put them above Washington and McConaughey for sure.
No Aquaman on VFX? No Fantastic Beasts for Costume? I think these two are a lock on these categories. And still baffles me that Regina Hall isn’t even being considered for Support the Girls. She was astounding there.
I think you (and many others) are sleeping on The Hate U Give. It should really be a lock in Supporting Actor (the key word being should), but outside of that, nominations in Picture and A. Screenplay are totally plausible. I see its path as getting critics group wins for Hornsby, then a potential SAG Ensemble nod leading to a Best Picture nomination. This is all contingent on it making more money though.
Not likely. Critics like it but they’re not going to champion it like they will other movies and while it’s doing okay at the box office for what it is it’s not a big enough hit for it to make the kind of waves that will force them to watch the screeners.
It’s very good. At the very least I certainly hope the AD faithful haul their cookies to the theater to see it.
I said this earlier this week in an article here. Some bozo decided to argue me down on the reviews for it and another told me it was young adult fluff. Sooooo, if Oscar prognosticators don’t take it seriously, it’ll never get traction.
A Uk reporter said Blunt was the real deal in MPR and that Ronan was also strong no mention of Robbie.
Many indications that Ronan is strong but MQOS is under strict embargo until AFI! It seems MPR will be a hit for sure!
If I had to guess I would say
– Mary Poppins Returns will be a big surprise (strong reviews, lots of nods including BP and Actress)
– Vice could pull an American Hustle (late entry with lots of nods, not many wins)
– Mary Queen of Scots will be respectable with nods in actress, s. actress, costumes, art direction
– Welcome to Marwen is a big question mark, is it a Walter Mitty or a Benjamin Button ?
– The Mule will be more of a commercial play
– On the Basis of Sex will be OK but not strong enough for serious awards consideration
I have a feeling that just how we saw Darkest Hour performing at the precursors – first with four nominations at Critics’ Choice (but a Best Picture one included), then getting mostly shut at Golden Globes
(except Best Actor – Drama) and no PGA nom, then a sudden major boost at BAFTAs (with nine) and ultimately landing a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars (one of its six) despite stiff competition: I believe Mary Queen of Scots could follow a similar path. Of course, provided that the reviews beginning from AFI are pretty great overall. Because I can see the British bloc of the Academy going for it definitely. So will the BAFTAs and Critics’ Choice looks like a possibility too. Who knows, even PGA and Globes may surprise.
Also, definitely with you there regarding Vice being this year’s American Hustle. Again looks to me like the late-breaker that well, really breaks out there with its nominations across several awards groups.
May really get close to a Best Picture win a la The Big Short(?) But still, quite unsure at the moment.
Agree with everything you wrote. Anything I’ve read on Saoirse’s performance in MQOS is quoted ”excellent” or ”outstanding” so watch out. I would add a Score nomination for MQOS!
And most pundits have 4 spots reserved without Blunt or Ronan on them and UK insiders are saying MPR is going to be this HUGE thing come Xmas.
Well, I think MPR is going to be huge in terms of box office. That’s making me believe that could drag Blunt in fifth spot.
MQOS did not have a Scottish accent. A Scottish accent at that time was a working class accent. She would have been educated and raised with an upper class (received pronunciation) British accent, and then at a young age she went to live in the French court, where again she would have spoken upper class English as well as French. Just sayin.
Wrong actually-Firstly when she went to live in France age 6, the French mocked her because she poke the Scots-Gealic language which, as you mentioned, was common back then. Secondly, after arriving back at Hollyrod Castle , she addressed her people & John Knox in Scots which is on record! It’s also on record that before she was beheaded, one of QE1 men said Mary had a ”pretty Scots” accent.
Okay I stand corrected and chastised!! My friend who is obsessed with royalty was telling me this so now i have to correct him!
I think many are confused/misinformed. People are forgetting that even though she was raised in France, she spent her time with Scottish people- governesses; one of Mary’s governesses daughters ended up being her lady-in-waiting.
Mary actually struggled with the English language, she could barely grasp it & tried to learn it during her time in captivity. She was multi-lingual.
Anyway, Ronan learned the French accent & language for MQOS as listed on IMDb. It’s said French may have influenced how she spoke slightly, but was able to communicate in Scots-Gaelic fully.
Remember, the original version of MQOS scored a best actress nomination for Vanessa Redgrave(Robbie), and would have scored one for Glenda Jackson(Ronan) had she not been nominated for Sunday Bloody Sunday that same year.
No, *Redgrave played Mary; Jackson played QE1, both were nominated in Leading Actress at GG for their roles respectively.
“Vice could pull an American Hustle (late entry with lots of nods, not many wins)”
Or any wins, actually!