We’re in the phase of the Oscar race where pundits are being blamed for the way the voters always vote. Despite 20 years of being taught the same lesson again and again — that just because you think something should be nominated for awards doesn’t mean it will be. Back in the day we used to call it “wishful thinking,” because we knew it was futile. Readers of this site know how many times I’ve gone to bat for contenders and films only to see them not win or, in some cases, not even get nominated. People, as a rule, don’t like being told what they should like, what they should vote for. You can put through a community effort, involve everyone top to bottom on a movie, and it could still not win Best Picture, it could still be shut out by the Academy if they don’t “like” it enough.
There are so many ways the Oscar narrative will be told this year. Where for many years prior there were been a dearth of films with strong women leads — now there are so many that dozens will be have to be left off. While Black or African American film directors in the past have not broken through (everyone remembers that the year I championed Fruitvale Station and The Butler, while only 12 Years a Slave made it through and won), now there are at least five strong contenders. How is that one going to go?
Black Panther is a film that rides the line between Oscar’s past and present. On the one hand, it’s a massive success, a big risk taken and a massive reward received. Enjoyable, thrilling, revolutionary – with dazzling costume design, a deep and spiritual message at its core, and a promise to deliver the inspiration of Wakanda to the places where it’s needed most. But. It’s. Also. A. Marvel. Movie. And it exists in that universe. And no superhero movie has ever been nominated for Best Picture. The closest any has gotten is one solitary screenplay nomination for Wolverine.
But after the debacle of floating the idea of a Popular Film Category, only to see the entire industry of critics and pundits shut it down, there was a silent promise made that Black Panther will not be the casualty of this struggle. It deserves better, they all said, and it will get better, they all said. Someone just told me on Twitter that it’s shocking that Bradley Cooper is a sure thing for A Star is Born but not Ryan Cooler for Black Panther. Okay, so let’s assume Ryan Coogler is a sure bet for Black Panther. Then what? Does that mean overnight the Oscar industry has transformed itself because finally a Marvel superhero franchise movie was good enough for them to shake loose from their bias?
Does it also mean there will be no community standing behind any other film by a black director? Not BlackKklansman? Not If Beale Street Could Talk? And what about Widows? The Hate U Give? Sorry to Bother You? It’s been a renaissance for black films and black filmmakers this year, without question, and if Black Panther is the one that leads the vanguard for that — how can anyone complain?
It must be said and said again that no one is underestimating Black Panther and/or Ryan Coogler. No one is. But, in terms of awards recognition, healthy skepticism remains that the industry is fully ready to embrace a superhero movie. This is the same skepticism that followed when it was Wonder Woman, or animated films.
Many in Hollywood will believe that 700 million at the box office is its own reward. Many others also believe, rightly or wrongly, that superhero franchise movies have all but ruined the industry they once loved. The old guard, whose legions are many in the Academy, tend to prefer nuts and bolts filmmaking over movies plugged into chains of sequels and franchises. That is traditionally how it’s gone. As someone who has been covering the race as long as I have, an Academy that would embrace Black Panther is an Academy I wouldn’t recognize, even accounting for the influx of nearly 2000 new voters brought in over the past 3 or 4 admirable years of diversification efforts. If the new blood is enough to alter the attitude toward such films, that would mean so much has changed — including the theory that the membership may no longer see superhero movies as a blight that ruins Hollywood, but rather a force that enhances it.
There is a similar problem with the other way Hollywood is evolving — Netflix, Amazon and CBS Films. Rather than the opportunity that it represents, streaming is still seen by many as a major threat to the kind of ideal they wish to preserve, and that tradition will be challenge with Roma. How do they ignore a film like Roma, being hailed as a masterpiece, if they want to cling to their Netflix bias?
The thing is, if Black Panther is ignored and other worthy films by black directors aren’t — like BlackKklansman (to my mind among the most important films of the year), or Beale Street, etc. — does that mean the Oscar broadcast itself will be punished?
Finally, the Oscars really can have their cake and eat it too if they include Black Panther and Roma and A Star Is Born. They will, in one year, in three fell swoops, indicate a willingness to erase the borderline that separates the old from the modern day. They might also boost their ratings in doing so, thus averting the controversial addition of another category for “popular” movie. If they can get popular movies in under the current system, then there is no problem, right?
The measure for what defines “outstanding achievement in film” is flexible. Even though First Man’s box-office is relatively disappointing, does that mean the industry will ignore such an achievement? Conversely, will Black Panther’s jaw-dropping and history-making box-office mean that the industry can’t ignore it?
Martin Scorsese’s Hugo was a box office disappointment, but it was so impressive from a cinematic standpoint, Scorsese’s ambition so appreciated, that not only did it get nominated but it won FIVE Oscars.
Right now, everyone who watches the Oscars is casting a wide net — and there is a lot of “shoulding” going on. This person should win. That person should be nominated. That movie deserves to win. We’re about to head into November — where we witness one last gasp of the AFI fest before the awards start to rain down. Once they do, the consensus will begin to emerge. The net will tighten. Doors will be slammed shut.
It’s always better to start with what seems like a sure bet and work backwards. Honestly, even then our best guesses and fondest hopes can be derailed in the last act, as happened with Inside Llewyn Davis or Carol. Some of the best movies ever made have been completely ignored by the consensus. Box office is no measure of a film’s greatness, but it can be a measure of a film’s success; after all, the reason they expanded the ballot to begin with was when The Dark Knight (which was at the time the second highest grossing film of all time) was shut out for Best Picture WAY WAY WAY back in 2008. All the same, no superhero movie has gotten in with the expanded ballot either.
At the end of November, we will hear from the National Board of Review, and the New York Film Critics. Then we hear from LA. Then the Golden Globes. Probably Black Panther is going to have a hard time cracking the Globes – with A Star is Born and Can You Ever Forgive Me in drama, how will there be room? Can Ryan Coogler crack a DGA nod? Seems likely, right? With its 15,000 members nationwide, the DGA aren’t as strict or as old-school as the more insular and eminent branch of the Academy. As with any other category, much will depend on which films they like more than they do Black Panther.
There are so many admirable movies and just five slots for Best Director. That makes it an incredibly competitive race. I have high hopes for Black Panther, but the fatalist in me knows that championing that one film will come at the expense of other films that didn’t make that kind of money but might deserve the honor just as much or more.
Mortal engines will beat marvel worldwide. It’s the epic would be waiting for
The sad thing is, regardless of BP’s fate, this is a stronger year for popular film than Academy catnip. Incredibles 2 will at least be nominated for animated, and MI could sneak in with an editing nom, but otherwise, creative films like Herediarty, Searching, A Quiet Place, and even Crazy Rich Asians are going to miss out on above-the-line noms because they’re not seen as Academy pictures. Well, this was the year to have that extra Oscar. Films like Roma and even Green Book are really obscure.
Black Panther will be lucky to receive technical nominations.
Art Direction would be a reasonable bet. Visual Effects, one or both sound categories, Makeup. Maybe a song nod for Kendrick.
Well Disney ain’t even pushing Infinity War for any nominations except for VFX. I’m guessing they don’t want to compete with BP.
Somewhat off-topic – do we really think the Globes will allow ASIB to contend as a Drama (they have final say, don’t they?), it’s clearly a musical, they specifically have a category for those, and the last two versions contended (and won) as Musicals (dealing with the same “heavy” subject matter).
Wondering why the marketing team was so keen to contend as a Drama – I suppose they’re trying to avoid Green Book & The Favourite, and prefer their chances contending against First Man and Beale Street (probably smart). Sure, I suppose it adds prestige if Cooper wins Best DRAMA Actor, but it feels like he & Gaga would be winners walking in the door if they contend as a Musical (perhaps I’m underestimating Viggo Mortensen and Olivia Colman?). Feels like Gaga would have a tougher time beating Glenn Close in the Drama category, but perhaps they’re hedging their bets on Cooper for an eventual Oscar win?
Ultimately, it just seems logical the Globes will place both ASIB & Bohemian Rhapsody in Musical (Marion Cotillard won as a Musical performer for La Vie En Rose after all – that’s highly dramatic and she lip-synced, right?)
The Globes rarely fight these positions so I’d imagine that they’ll remain in drama.
Also, I wouldn’t say that A Star Is Born is a musical, unlike the 1954 version, but rather a music movie, which I’d describe as drama
What I’ve heard is that their reason for competing in drama has less to do with increasing their chances at the Globes and more to do with blocking other movies. So, for example, if ASIB wins in drama they not only win but they also block something like Green Book from winning and getting a bump in profile the way Moonlight did when LLL won for musical.
I’ve heard that Green Book will be in Comedy at the Globes, so that line of reasoning doesn’t make sense (i.e., both A Star Is Born and Green Book could win Best Picture if the former was placed in Drama).
That’s not what they are doing. They are not concerned about Green Book and The Favourite. They want to squash the dramatic competition and come out the Globes as the “heavyweight” winner going into the Oscars. Also, it’s not a musical. It’s a drama with music. Big difference.
Yeah I think they should just take the word musical out of there. This way here drama musicals will go in drama and comedy musicals, which barely ever happen, will go in comedy. It’s a dishonest category though because they’re just trying to make room. They should just nominate as many movies as they want and get it over with. They’re not the Oscars. They don’t have to have rules.
I wouldn’t say comedy musicals rarely happen: Mary Poppins Returns, Mamma Mia, Sing Street, Hairspray, Enchanted, Pitch Perfect, Annie…
But yes, Les Miz shouldn’t get to compete with Bridesmaids just because it has music in it.
Yeah lately tho. For all we know Mary returns to kill and eat the kids. And some people think that at the end of SING STREET they sailed into certain death. I was thinking of CHICAGO, DANCER IN THE DARK, ONCE, etc. Proper original musicals where the songs are particular to the movie. Those are mostly downers in the last few decades.
Who thinks like that about Sing Street? The song, the way the scene was shot all underlines hope so strongly that I’m surprised the frames weren’t cut in half due to the sheer force of the pen
I think it is two factors.
One, the filmmakers probably think that Drama is for more “serious” films and they regard their film as serious, unlike those silly musicals and comedies. It’s self-importance.
Two, the Drama winner at the Globe more often goes on to win Best Picture. Seven of the Drama winners since 2000 won BP, while only two of the past Comedy/Musical winners did. So they’re probably calculating that if they can win Drama, they will be “seen” by voters as a a film worthy of winning the Oscar, which is not so much the case if they win Musical/Comedy.
Although I think it’s absurd that they want to build that high expectations and that much hype for this film or any film at all. I’d imagine that it would be notably more beneficial for them to stay calm about it
I think the huge amount of technical nominations will help Black Panther push into Best Picture territory.
I’m less convinced that First Man is going to get many – if any – major nominations. I’m doubtful it’ll get Best Picture, I’m doubtful Chazelle will be nominated, I’m doubtful Gosling will make the cut, and I’m even less certain that the script will get in. The reaction to it reminds me of Blade Runner 2049. A critically adored film, but did little above the line.
I still think FM is a more likely nominee for Picture, less for Director and Acting (Claire Foy maybe being the exception) while BP is the contrary, it has to fight the enemy within: Infinity War. We know Disney is going to push BP, but wait to see first, what happens with Mary Poppins Returns, everything may switch to it.
I’m expecting Mary Poppins to unite a divided and exhausted America with its joy and nostalgia and propel Emily Blunt into an 11th-hour Oscar nomination / win – but I’m probably delusional.
I need to believe in delusions like this. Sign me up.
That’s what I believe, as well. But time will tell.
Agreed — i think First Man will squeak in for BP but I think Gosling gets shut out, because his role is so unemotional and inexpressive. Foy, to me, was superb, and I think she has a better chance, esp. given her credibility from The Crown.
After a 50 million opening in US Domestic and the HUGE b.o. worldwide plus unanimous praise of Malek, I think Rami Malek is locked for a nom everywhere and the frontrunner to win the GG Comedy/Musical unless they go drama (which they shouldn’t). This could be this year’s The Darkest Hour, even thought the movie is basically a meh for critics. I am doubtful about watching the film itself, I am more interested for the experience than for the quality of the film itself.
They are going drama with it at the Globes from what I’ve understood
The HFPA can still vote for it in whichever category they want, regardless of which the studio campaigns it for.
But when have they really fought these studio calls? The only two recent cases I can remember are Get on Up and The Help, which were as far as I remember pushed in the other direction
I loved Wonder Woman last year and Black Panther this year – and I am SICK TO DEATH of superhero movies. Both had great origin stories, excellent production values and captivating performers. As a longtime Oscar fan, I was sad when Wonder Woman got no Oscar love early this year, and I hope Black Panther will get Oscar love early next year. Both of these movies went way beyond the sound and fury of most superhero movies.
Absolutely agree with you. Black film-making this year has been incredible but I think it’s unfair for Black Panther to be championed as the face of that momentum when better films like Widows and If Beale Street Could Talk take a backseat to Black Panther’s hype. Black Panther’s achievement should not be understated but in no way is it a cinematic masterpiece or a genre-breaking superhero film. I would much rather direct our praise/hype of diverse cinema toward smaller films like Roma and Beale Street.
Thank you.
The box office thing is interesting because it definitely doesn’t mean nothing but its mostly movie dependent whether it means something. Just take a few years ago Steve Jobs was near the top of most people’s lists then suddenly it did terribly at the box office and immediately disappeared (ending up with 1 nomination if I remember rightly). I feel like in the case of first man it matters – maybe not quite this much but it does matter. Not in the sense that voters are influenced by box office but more that is an indication of how people are reacting to that movie. For the record I just took Gosling out of my nomination predictions and Chazelle for director is kind of on the bubble (and for the record I say this as someone who loves First Man). I kind of thought this might happen anyway because it is a tough watch and people are likely to come in for an uplifting film.
As for Black Panther I don’t think anybody knows where that is going right now its a complete stab in the dark but it will need something to push it in, for example the critics could help a lot (they were the reason for Fury Road overcoming genre bias).
FYI, Steve Jobs ended up with two noms, for Fassbender and Winslet.
It did too, my bad, that doesn’t really change the point though.
HE(plus) is wild rn
Is that how you’re spending your Trump tax cuts? Aren’t you tired of winning yet?
Christophe! 5 a.m. That snap woke me up.
At least you had some sleep! I remember times you would stay up all night in the past, making sure you don’t miss any comment.
I’ll probably feel better rested if I sync my sleep-wake cycle with yours, my friend. Break free of all these unhealthy American rhythms once and for all.
Naw I saw screenshots.
I think at the end of the day, as always, it will come down to the actors, the reason why I’ll be watching closely at the SAG Ensemble category. For example, if Black Panther makes the cut, then Academy genre-bias be damned, I will consider it to be a VERY strong contender for a BP nomination. Same goes for something like Crazy Rich Asians. For the record, I think both have a good shot at this. Critically acclaimed, history-making smash hits tend not to be forgotten. Hopefully.
Side note : A Private War deserves attention, peeps, the very least nods for Rosamund Pike and Annie Lennox.
ASIB’s box office will barely beat Crazy Rich Asians, and after all the hype about it being “the new Titanic” who saw that coming
ASIB had a minuscule drop this weekend in spite of Bohemian Rhapsody entering the marketplace in epic fashion (50M opening weekend). I firmly believe the film is overrated (script, directing, editing were misses for me; and I found Gaga good but not great), but its Box Office is definitely impressive and it will get past Crazy Rich Asians (173M+) easily, will probably even make it to 200M.
It’s not unimpressive box office but hardly “it’s a phenomenon the race is over” numbers either.
I don’t find it an outlier that Tom O’Neill is moving towards Green Book
Oh I never bought ASIB as a BP winner to be honest I honestly don’t see it getting crucial Oscar nominations (directing / writing) and it will probably also miss crucial precursor stops, as well (SAG Ensemble).
I’m predicting 7 nominations, 1 maybe 2 wins :
Picture
Actor (frontrunner (for now)
Actress
Supporting Actor
Song (frontrunner)
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
God I hope you’re right… I like ASIB but that script is such a mess, the fact that so many people are pushing and predicting the screenplay just makes no sense to me.
ASIB will have an impressive number of nominations (8-11ish), but in the end Best Picture almost always goes through writing and director, and I see Beale Street prevailing in those. I could be wrong. I wouldn’t mind if I were; ASIB is my favorite film of the year so far. I want Cooper and Gaga to win.
Cooper and Gaga are up for Oscars in several categories so there is a good chance they will win. Just not necessarily Director/Actress, respectively.
Your current thought on BP winner would be If Beale Street Could Talk? Interesting – everyone keeps assuming the race is down to A Star Is Born vs. Green Book vs. ROMA, with a few arguing for BlacKkKlansman (though more in Director) or Black Panther.
I think the “representative” win for Jenkins’ film will be Regina King.
I don’t think we should assume anything about the race “being down to” 3 or so films; it’s far too early for that. Almost any film in the conversation still has a visible chance to win I think.
Just my gut. I have no clue. I feel the Academy wants to reward Jenkins since he did not get director and didn’t have the full glow of the win due to what happened on the stage with LLL. I could definitely be wrong, though I doubt it. (lol) I see it getting pic, director, screenplay, supporting actress, a typical array of awards in the modern era.
Green Book will have its own challenges to overcome (and is far less “tested” than A Star Is Born at the present time). It needs to perform well at the box office (which it probably will), and it needs to receive at least a slightly better critical consensus (69 is 14 points lower than the closest BP contender) to actually be in the hunt. Plus it will need to weather the inevitable controversies.
1. Produce a link where a single Oscar voter ever cited Metacritic as a factor in their vote.
2. Which controversy are you referring to?
3. I think ASIB campaigned WAY TOO HARD in the beginning and helped bake in its own backlash
1. No one looks at a Metacritic score when they vote but the critics’ taste can lead to a narrative in the race where “Green Book isn’t sophisticated enough” for people to consider voting for it, even if they like it
As opposed to the morally and artistically complex ASIB (which in reality is as deep as a wading pool)
We’re far from the shallow now…
Even though I agree with you, it’s got the critical support to make it seem “respectable” and “sophisticated” enough to contend without there being a voice in the back of voters minds saying: “Can I vote for this? Is this actually such a great film that I should call it the best film of the year” at least as strongly as with Green Book
Ok, absolutely fair response. I suspect that the takedown thinkpieces that will go after ASIB will be how low stakes the film actually is when you get past Cooper pissing his pants at the Grammys. Actual honest to goodness fascism is sweeping over this country in real life and ASIB (and Green Book as well) look hopelessly anarchic when compared to real life.
The simple point is that you may agree or disagree with critics but it’s their job to point out flaws as well as anything which elevates art. You must understand that film criticism isn’t simply a matter of taste. Obviously taste guides them, like it does all of us, but they make their argument and then it’s up to others to make up their minds whether they agree or disagree. You could call it “respectable” or “sophisticated”, but there is nothing wrong with that because we tend agree more with people we respect and admire.
I think criticism is one of the best tools we have and there’s no progress without it. The remedy for false criticism is a counter criticism which proves it wrong. People are free to challenge any criticism, at least in a free society.
I agree with your point about criticism completely but my point was that the critical consensus eventually shines back on the movie, making voters feel like it’s acceptable or unacceptable to vote for a certain movie. Thus if a film gets good reviews, is praised as a masterpiece, people probably feel much more confident in voting for the movie than if everyone around them thinks it’s absolutely without any quality. Their personal, visceral reaction to the film might not change but their interpretation of this reaction can easily. Something that might be a grand emotional piece of art to someone if it had 90 on Metacritic can easily become a bit overly sentimental and “trying to get an emotional reaction out of you” with a 65 on Metacritic. I think this is natural and eventual, the human mind isn’t as confident about itself as we might want to think. Our reactions to movies are thus always a conversation with the opinions of those who we’ve heard from before we’ve seen it.
A voter can come to a movie like Green Book in December and react to it very strongly but if he/she’s heard about the problems that the movie has in the opinions of some, he/she might pay a different amount of attention to it than he/she otherwise would and thus the answer to the question of “do you love it” might be very different than otherwise. And even if someone watched the movie in Toronto, they can hear all these things and think about it a lot and wind up saying: “The film’s not as good as I thought it was”.
This was my point in using the phrases “respectable” and “sophisticated”, that a movie needs to have a good enough reputation to not make voters question whether it’s as good as they think it is before they vote.
I don’t mean wrong generally because you can’t really prove someone’s opinion on art is wrong. I mean, to show that the criticism don’t have merit and find other faults it in.
I happen to think the films get too high a score on MC. For example, how did 3B get such a high mark? higher than “Get Out”? In retrospect the critics kind of corrected themselves by recognising “Get Out” and shutting out 3B. 3B would have had the lowest awards from major critics groups than any BP winner if it had won BP, even lower than “Crash”.
Oh, the age-old “correlation = causation” fallacy…
It’s not about a MC score being a direct factor in Academy voting, but it makes it unlikely (as one example) that Green Book will figure prominently into critics’ awards, which helps build momentum. Critics are generally influencing the race more and more. (It is also the case that no film has won BP with a MC score lower than 85 since Crash.)
No one particular controversy, but many potential ones (Ali being campaigned in Supporting Actor when he’s a co-lead, the treatment of race in the film, etc.). Time will tell whether any of these become significant enough to derail a path to the stage, but my point was it’s not a film that’s impervious to criticism.
There are usually a few “little movies” like Green Book and The Favorite that get Oscar attention if the movies are good enough. Mortensen’s Captain Fantastic brought him an Oscar nomination a few years back. And, if I’m remembering correctly, LaLaLand was not a big money-maker, but it did (too) well on Oscar night. I was very impressed by First Man, but it might be considered a bit slow for Oscars.
La La Land made 446 million worldwide.
The Academy is still free to vote for who they want and the influence of critics, audiences and other award shows on the Oscars can be exaggerated. We don’t really know how any of them influence the race. But it is human nature to stick to something that has general support. Usually, critics tend to spot and point out flaws in films even if they happened to like them. That’s the issue with any film that is trying to win BP. If one looks at it, the weakest BP winners are films which had least critical acclaim. Critics have been right much often the Academy or the general public. They lauded many of the films we know call classics or masterpieces way before the Academy or the general public did. There are, of course, a few exceptions.
ASIB is a R-Rated film and Crazy Rich Asian’s is PG-13 film. There is no comparison period. Also, ASIB had the biggest Warner Brothers opening of 2018 in Australia, beating opening weekends of Crazy Rich Asians, The Meg and Tomb Raider just to mention a few. Don’t underestimate the BO achievement of ASIB.
If ever a superhero film should have been nominated for Best Picture, it should have been Wonder Woman.
It was okay.
I don’t think box office matters as much as it’s used to. Maybe in nominations, but not winning. As long as the members have access to watch the contenders, then any movie regardless of b.o. number can be a threat. And these days, it’s the digital screeners that change the game. Members can watch ANY movie at ANY time and at ANY place. They can flip open their laptop, and voila, they could be watching a potential Best Picture right then and there.
We will find out with Roma in that respect
I think Black Panther might be in good shape. On the reverse side of the argument, I don’t think First Man will be this year’s Hugo. It won’t overcome the poor box office, and I think it will struggle to make an appearance in the major nominations.
“And no superhero movie has ever been nominated for Best Picture. The closest any has gotten is one solitary screenplay nomination for Wolverine.”
We technically don’t know if this is true, since we don’t know the voting totals. I’d easily believe that Dark Knight finished sixth in the voting in 2008, for instance. Also, it’s worth mentioning that Logan’s screenplay nod came just last year, which is actually a positive sign that comic book movies are beginning to gain a bit more acceptance from Academy voters.
I said this months ago and it’s still true — Black Panther’s biggest obstacle isn’t only that it’s a “comic book movie,” but rather than Marvel released another, even larger-scale epic just two months later with Infinity War. The very nature of Infinity War’s story sucked up all the air in the room, not to mention the fact that it’s arguably as good a film as Black Panther.
But none of the critics/journalists will talk about Infinity War and none of the voters will see it. I don’t think it matters.
Oh they’ve already seen it. Both of them. That actually works in BP’s favor. They’ve all seen it. For sure. And when the grandkids come for Thanksgiving, it’s entirely possible that’ll be the only kid-friendly screener they’ve got. So they might rewatch it. These other “Oscar” movies that haven’t been in wide release still have to make their way into the machine.
But then there are the Birdman-types who wouldn’t touch a superhero movie with a long stick. They’ll probably avoid Black Panther until the film gets nominated somewhere notable
Yeah but BIRDMAN was the only superhero movie to win BP. I will never let that go. I really don’t care what Inarritu says. Otherwise, who needs people that are racist against superheroes?
p.s. I have no idea where all the accents and whatnot are on my phone. That’s why i never put them.
Black Panther’s biggest obstacle, is Avengers: Infinity War. It’s the superior, even more groundbreaking film out of the two… Black Panther is in it, and it gave us the most iconic cinematic element of the year at the end of the film (Black Panther’s final fight was actually underwhelming, too obvious CGIed and anticlimatic in comparison to the first showdown of Killmonger and T’Challa in the waterfall)
But then again, Disney has announced that they won’t campaign Infinity War for any category outside of visual effects so if the movie isn’t talked about, how much is it going to hurt Black Panther?
I agree but we can’t have vote splitting so we have to get behind the superhero movie that’s actually in the hunt. Unless you didn’t like it. Then, you know, carry on.
I honestly think Disney is betting on the wrong horse… Black Panther is appealling to the same votes that may go to If Beale Street could talk and BlackKklansman… is anyone seriously thinking, Ryan Coogler is being nom’d over Spike Lee, Barry Jenkins AND even Steve McQueen (Widows)? I couls see Lee and Jenkins nom’d at once – even if I am guessing it’ll be only Lee, out of the 4… along with Cooper, Cuarón and maybe Farrelly and Lanthimos… I’d say Lee, Cooper and Cuarón are the 3 safe bets and everything else aside them becomes more blurry and questionable.
Infinity War was way more powerful, poignant – that ending! – and iconic. Also, even more groundbreaking than Black Panther, and even incorporated BP’s elements to add up the whole experience… Infinity War offered something different that defied expectations, while Black Panther just offered an african layer to the usual stuff… and we talk about Killmonger, hey, Thanos is an equally effective and memorable villain, difficult to point out who’s the better one.
The problem with Infinity War is that technically it’s half a movie. Avengers 4 is still coming and everyone knows it.
mmm… NO. There’s no actual cliffhanger. It could be judged as a film on its own, and even Feige and the Russos said so. There’s an ending. How they would try to fix it is another story, but the ending is there and sealed and quite satisfying for how bleak it is.
Oh please. Nobody thinks they’re all dead. Of course it’s a complete movie. It’s still my favorite of 2018. But it seems pretty obvious that if they were ever going to push an Avengers movie for Oscar they’re skipping this one in favor of the upcoming Avengers 4. They’ve already hinted that there’s more gravitas to it. I mean, put it this way, we’ll probably be campaigning for Downey this time next year.
ehem… true comic-book fans, they can easily be dead. Specially since the introduction of the quantum realm, alternate realities, parallel universes. There’s no need to “undo” Thanos’ snap to have the heroes back. Still, in the comic-book, this was done precisely by one of the surviving characters. But what I refer to, it is that the film can be seen and understood like the story of Thanos, not the Avengers and the end of his journey closes perfectly fine at the end, and it does not require by any means to even have a follow up. They lost, FULL STOP, and life goes on.
From what I understand they’re releasing a more Oscar friendly version in time to qualify. Here’s the trailer.
https://youtu.be/Re0tiX9Z3tk
I don’t think Oscar voters give a hill of beans about Infinity War (nor do the Disney campaigners). Oscar voters know that Black Panther is THE story of Oscar season (aside from ASIB/Green Book/Roma).
I’m going to just root for The Favourite until further notice,
If we’re voting based on trailers, it has my vote. It looks hilarious and clever, and it looks like the Masterpiece Theatre movie that blows up the whole genre. Which would be nice. I cannot WAIT to see this film.
I continue saying, Black Panther is a longshot for a nom at Picture, Director, Acting… it has an outside shot at Adapted Screenplay – even thought I highly doubt it. I count it only for 3-4 noms, all technical (VFX, both Sound and either Score or Make Up… outside shots also at Costume and Art Direction IF lucky)
Costumes is Black Panther’s more assured nomination by far.
I agree — I think BP will get zero noms in the top eight categories. Oddly enough, if it gets one nomination in the top eight, it will be for Best Picture.
mmm I am more confident on Adapted Screenplay than on Best Picture, but I could see it.