- Best Film: Roma
- Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón / Roma
Special Award: Kino Classics Box Set “Pioneers: First Women Filmmakers
Special Award: David Schwartz, stepping down as Chief Film Curator at Museum of the Moving Image after 33 years
Special Award: Kino Classics Box Set “Pioneers: First Women Filmmakers
Special Award: David Schwartz, stepping down as Chief Film Curator at Museum of the Moving Image after 33 years
Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.
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Best Actor is BRADLEY COOPER!!!
Regina Hall!? Heard nothing about this movie. Does she have any possibility of being Oscar nominated, at this point?
She and her film are better than everyone else in the conversation for that category.
Never heard of Support the Girls, but Regina Hall has gotten 2 awards; right? When was it released? I just saw the trailer and wanna see it.
It’s on AMZ prime so I’ll rent it. It looks delish. BTW, I’m going to see the Favourite this weekend, it’s getting good reviews.
Too bad Roma is a Netflix (limited theater release, only on Netflix) movie. Acc to THR it’s going to be a hard sell for best picture BECAUSE IT’S NETFLIX!
Thank god we have THR for such insight.
These critics awards are all well and fine for adding buzz and narratives, but I mostly care for when the GG/BFCA/SAG/BAFTA/Guilds start to chime in. That’s when I really perk up.
So out of the three groups so far…Has any one of this critics groups seen vice yet? I’m going to go with a No. Has to be a no, right? And they haven’t seen the mule yet.. got it. The globes will clear the air as they normally do.
Of course they have! Vice has been screening for the last week, and I know because I’ve seen it. It’s been seen by all press groups and also by the Screen Actors Guild.
They’ve seen Vice. NYFCC members on Twitter have mentioned seeing it. They’ve also implied that they did not think that highly of it.
According to Kris Tapley, nobody has seen The Mule.
I think this is an instance where Oscar watchers keep expecting Vice to be the next American Hustle or The Big Short, rushing in at the last minute to become an enormous contender. And everyone views last-minute Eastwood films as the next Million Dollar Baby or American Sniper. We have no idea about The Mule, of course, but it appears at least that Vice may get some noms but it will not be the game-changer people kept thinking it might be.
(Example: One of the NYFCC members I follow on Twitter scoffed at the idea that Amy Adams would win an Oscar for Vice. Meanwhile, most of us on here, who haven’t seen the movie, keep thinking it’s a possibility.)
People are worrying about Vice for no reason. We knew it wasn’t a hit with the NY critics. The Big Short was also divisive, and didn’t pop up anywhere until the Golden Globes, and then rode a surge that nearly stole BP and earned McKay two noms and a win. Vice still has plenty of time to pick up steam. Seems like a surefire SAG Ensemble nominee, for example.
But so did The Post, and we all know how that ended.
I don’t see Charlize Theron’s name anywhere and I’m so disappointed. She deserves every single accolade in the world for her bravura work in Tully and the fact that her turn in her previous collaboration with Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody deserved that as well but didn’t even earn a nomination at The Oscars still makes me furious. If I were to keep two spots regardless of anyone else’s performance this year, it would be for Charlize and Toni Collette of Hereditary. Two astonishing, haunting performances. Also, Tully deserves so much love in so many categories (Screenplay, Mackenzie Davis for Supporting Actress)… I don’t care if its chances seem dead (they do), I still pray for it to happen.
oh I agree. Not even the goddamn satellite nominations could do what’s right and put her in their comedy category. Hopefully the globe’s will give her credit where it’s due.
What can I say man, I hope so. Constance Wu from The Satellite Awards Nominations? Like please…
Here’s how often each NYFCC category has lined up with the Oscars in the past 20 years:
PICTURE
4 winners: The Artist, The Hurt Locker, No Country For Old Men, LOTR:ROTK
5 snubs: Carol, United 93, Far From Heaven, Mulholland Dr, Topsy-Turvy
11 nominees: Lady Bird, La La Land, Boyhood, American Hustle, Zero Dark Thirty, The Social Network, Milk, Brokeback Mountain, Sideways, Traffic, Saving Private Ryan
DIRECTOR
7 winners: Hazanavicius, Bigelow, Coens, Scorsese, Lee, Eastwood, Soderbergh
6 snubs: Baker, Haynes, Bigelow, Leigh, Haynes, Leigh
7 nominees: Jenkins, Linklater, McQueen, Fincher, Coppola, Altman, Malick
ACTOR
6 winners: Affleck, Day-Lewis, Firth, Penn, Day-Lewis, Whitaker
4 snubs: Keaton, Spall, Redford, Giamatti
10 nominees: Chalamet, Pitt, Clooney, Ledger, Murray, Day-Lewis, Wilkinson, Hanks, Farnsworth, Nolte
ACTRESS
5 winners: Blanchett, Streep, Mirren, Witherspoon, Swank
4 snubs: Weisz, Hawkins, Davis, Diaz
11 nominees: Ronan, Huppert, Ronan, Cotillard, Bening, Streep, Christie, Staunton, Lane, Spacek, Linney
SUPPORTING ACTOR
7 winners: Ali, Rylance, Simmons, Leto, Waltz, Bardem, del Toro
7 snubs: McConaughey, Brooks, Levy, Quaid, Buscemi, Malkovich, Murray
6 nominees: Dafoe, Ruffalo, Brolin, Haley, Hurt, Owen
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
6 winners: Arquette, Leo, Mo’Nique, Cruz, Hudson, Gay Harden
4 snubs: Haddish, Stewart, Bello, Kudrow
10 nominees: Williams, Lawrence, Field, Chastain, Ryan, Madsen, Aghdashloo, Clarkson, Mirren, Keener
SCREENPLAY
5 winners: Manchester, No Country, Sideways, Gosford Park, Shakespeare In Love
3 snubs: Phantom Thread, Rachel Getting Married, The Secret Lives Of Dentists
12 nominees: Carol, Grand Budapest, American Hustle, Lincoln, Moneyball, Kids Are All Right, In The Loop, The Queen, Squid And The Whale, Adaptation, You Can Count On Me, Election
wow that’s a lot of work — and fascinating!
Phantom Thread was a snub in Screenplay. I know, it doesn’t sound right — but it is. PTA was not nominated for the writing Oscar last year.
You’re right, of course. Fixed!
Considering how loved PTA is by screenwriters in the Academy, it was a very surprising snub.
So the categories with the strongest correlations to eventual Oscar winners are Director and Supporting Actor… but they also have the two highest snubs rates, so you’re equally likely to end up winning an Oscar, getting nominated but losing, and getting snubbed entirely.
Screenplay has the strongest correlation with at least getting nominated: only three NYFCC winners there have been snubbed by the Oscars in the last 20 years.
Picture and Actress have the weakest correlations to Oscar wins, but are pretty good indicators of nominations. Could this put the wind in the sails of Regina Hall’s Oscar campaign, or will this be one of the rare flukes in that category?
Regina Hall doesn’t have a campaign, this is all very spontaneous support. Magnolia si terrible at campaigns.
“Great analysis.”
Seconded.
Jack Nicholson is the actor with most wins at the NYFCC? Total of 6, I guess, followed by Meryl Streep and Daniel Day Lewis with 5 each and Sissy Spacek with 4. What a great group.
Now that’s class! Jack is always the top guy.
Last time a NYFC-bestowed BP that won the Oscar BP was The Artist. This means nothing, but the insidious influence of Netflix flexed its muscle today, sadly.
Yah.
Insidious Netflix and their diabolical scheme to finance a masterpiece. Bastards.
The fact that we might not have been recipients of a film like Roma were it not for Netflix makes me pretty happy for Netflix.
Technical but… Netflix didn’t finance Roma. They bought it after it was finished for distribution rights. But your point stands.
Cuaron doesn’t have 15 MDD to make a film, he took Netflix money to do it..
False.
False and quite stupid.
I was wrong to say Netflix financed Roma. It’s more accurate to say that Netflix made certain that Cuaron earned a tidy return on his own investment.
Production began on Roma in 2016. Netflix did not become involved with Roma until April 2018 when it acquired distribution rights for Cuaron’s completed film.
Anyone who thinks Cuaron doesnt have $15 million to produce his own film (with two partners) is an ignoramus.
Cuaron produced Gravity which earned over $750 million. Sandra Bullock alone earned $70 million for Gravity with her profit points.
It’s absurd to think Cuaron produced Gravity and didn’t secure for himself a massive profit participation percentage.
Carter, I’m very sorry that Alphonso Cuaron ran over your pet duck with his pickup truck or whateverthefuck he ever did to ruin your life. But your petty nonsensical whining about Roma is becoming more and more irritating.
Where does the money to make Roma come from? I have sources from Mexico to know about Cuaron’s finances and he’s not even close to have 15 MDD..
You’re beginning to sound like you’re full of shit.
Really? You really think that “Roma” is that good to win on its own merit? I guess some people just love through smears without anything to back it up.
It’s a solid foreign language candidate. *Just* a foreign language film candidate.
In an ideal world, as I always preface these BP choices:
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Boy Erased
A Star is Born
BlacKKKlansman
Eighth Grade or Vice or First Man
Nice mix of mainstream/critics favorites and arthouse. The depth simply isn’t there this year to support 8, 9 or 10 nominees. Not this year. Maybe for the Indie Spirits crowd, but not for an Oscars that desperately needs eyeballs in front of the TV. This is the best of both worlds.
No one is going to watch live television in 2019.
Weird, I don’t see a singular arthouse movie on that list (maybe Eighth Grade could be argued to be one, I don’t know)
So the best rated film of the year doesn’t deserve the win? Ok then …
New York film critics don’t strike me as the most likely people to be in the pocket of a streaming service, but what do I know.
The future is going to really suck for you.
Current Best Picture Race Scenario:
-Black Panther
-Eighth Grade
-First Reformed
-The Favourite
-Green Book
-If Beale Street Could Talk
-Leave No Trace
-Mary Poppins Returns
-Roma
-A Star is Born
Why do people keep putting 10 nominees down. It’s never happened since they changed the rules, so when they only nominate 9 people who put 10 down get a bonus pick essentially.
VERY nice list of winners, congrats to them all, this definitely helps in the “getting the nomination” stage.
As for winning Oscars, a gentle reminder that last year in the 8 main categories (picture, director, adapted script, original script, lead actor, lead actress, supporting actor, supporting actress) NONE of the Oscar winners won either NBR or NYFCC. These smaller groups are great to build hype and awareness in order to get the nominations but winning is an entirely different ballgame.
That’s a crazy stat. I think people are also failing to take into account our first real precursor (other than Cannes and Sundance) was the People’s Choice Award at TIFF where Green Book won. In the last 10 years, 9 films that won that award were nominated for Best Pic and 3 went on to win the Oscar. So this Green Book hate I’ve seen on this site is only gonna come back to haunt them.
Ok. Now with First Reformed winning screenplay I think we’ll see Cuaron take director and dare I say First Reformed for film? I will also say that not seeing The Favourite or Green Book or Star Is Born ANYWHERE (if that ends up being the case) is a bit shocking.
I didn’t expect Green Book or A Star Is Born, both being commercial studio fare and all but the lack of love for The Favourite so far is quite shocking indeed.
yeah i thought it would be right up their alley
I feel like they wouldn’t have given Cold War foreign film if Roma was not the surefire winner of their BP award. Or maybe they just don’t like Roma that much, in which case it’s probably over for it.
or could it be a purist, anti-Netflix, film must be film thing??
Not sure but the big obstacles for Roma in BP will be definitely that 1. they can just give it Best Foreign Language Film and call it a day 2. could BP go to a film with a reported theatrical gross of big ol nothing ?
Shake-a-Speare Brenda!
It’s interesting to me that Green Book is such an Oscar favorite while pulling in mediocre box office (despite a huge ad buy) and getting only an 82% fresh on RT—yet Mary Queen of Scots is pulling a 92% on RT and is considered like shit on our Awards Daily favorites board (except for two tech categories).
I watched Mary, Queen of Scots last night and while the movie isn’t good enough for best picture, imo, I really think Ronan and Robbie can make it in. Especially Robbie …
I hope they both sneak in.
Update on races post-NBR and NYFCC wins (by attention received thus far):
PICTURE
1. Roma [won NYFCC, listed in top 10 by NBR]
2. Green Book [won NBR]
3. The Rider (2017) [won Gotham]
4. First Reformed (2017) [nominated at Gothams and Spirits, listed in top 10 by NBR]
4. If Beale Street Could Talk [nominated at Gothams and Spirits, listed in top 10 by NBR]
DIRECTOR
1. Roma [won NYFCC]
1. A Star Is Born (2018) [won NBR]
1. Eighth Grade [won Gotham]
4. You Were Never Really Here (2017) [nominated at Spirits and BIFA]
ACTOR
1. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (2017) [won Gotham + NYFCC, nominated at Spirits]
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book [won NBR]
3. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (2017) [nominated at Spirits and BIFA]
ACTRESS
1. Regina Hall, Support the Girls [won NYFCC, nominated at Gothams and Spirits]
2. Toni Colette, Hereditary [won Gotham, nominated at Spirits]
3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (2018) [won NBR]
4. Glenn Close, The Wife (2017) [nominated at Gothams and Spirits]
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? [won NYFCC, nominated at Gothams and Spirits]
2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (2018) [won NBR]
3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman [nominated at Gothams and Spirits]
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk [won NBR + NYFCC, nominated at Spirits]
SCREENPLAY
1. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (2017) [won Gothams, NBR + NYFCC]
Schrader and King are looking like sweeps (and Hawke’s done well). What does that mean for First Reformed (2017) and If Beale Street Could Talk (if anything)?
Regina Hall in “Support the Girls”. How incredibly fantastic! This “little” picture has a big spirit and skill deep within it to burn (supporting cast, directing, editing, cinematography). I just didn’t think the New York critics had even noticed it. Stunning news! Hooray!!!!!!!
yep
I really liked Support the Girls and she’s great. It reminded me of a weird cousin to the movie Waiting with Ryan Reynolds with the restaurant/single day/comedy angle.
I really hope Glenn Close can pull off Actress, she is deserving af for this performance plus she has never won here before and she really should have by now.
I think they give it to Colman.
And she really should start winning soon if she wants that Oscar.
There you go, it’s Ethan Hawke
This early on nothing can secure an Oscar win but I have to say I am very pleased that the very least it looks like Regina King is becoming undeniable for her first ever Oscar nomination. And after that, who knows, she may just go all the way!
Does anybody know who or what finished as the runners up?
Yeah, it’s been dead quiet this year. No leaks. Runners-up would be nice.
So realistically at this point, this is how I would place the Best Pic lineup…
Roma (NYFCC)
Green Book (NBR, TIFF)
A Star Is Born
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Reformed
The Favourite
Can You Ever Forgive Me
Black Panther
Eighth Grade
Vice or First Man would be my 10th spot but as always, I don’t think they will do 10.
I think ASIB, Roma, Black Panther, Green Book, First Reformed, Eight Grade and Beale Street are in. I also think Mary Poppins gets in. I will go with either Leave No Trace , The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Me or First Man for the 9th spot.
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. First Reformed
6. The Favourite
7. Vice
8. Mary Poppins Returns
If there’s nine, the last slot is between Black Panther/First Man/Widows.
Black Panther is probably in. They don’t want a Best Popular Film category in 2020!
I’m pretty impressed/curious that First Reformed (2017)’s strong showing this early in the season has convinced people that it’s a lock for BP – #5 and above The Favourite!
Actor and Original Screenplay nominations seems likely, though.
I would’ve had The Favourite at #5, but it has been completely blanked by both NBR and NYFCC and that puts something of a damper on its momentum. At the same time, First Reformed has experienced a huge surge. Maybe putting it at #5 is a little reactionary to its recent success, but I do think it’s on track to make the cut in BP.
Roma, ASIB, Green Book, Beale Street, Black Panther, First Reformed, Mary Poppins–the other two spots are anyone’s guess. Although I don’t think Black Klansman is getting in.
Good news for Gaga is that Close and Colman have been shut out so far. This race is shaping up to be Roma vs ASIB. The critical darling vs the studio film. Basically what I was thinking all along. Also so happy for Hawke and Schrader. Saw First Reformed a couple weeks ago and it hasn’t left my mind.
A Star is Born is also a critical darling, lest you forget.
NBR darling, you mean? The critics aren’t going to love it.
No, it isn’t.
The regional critics are going to go wild about A Star Is Born
Shut out ??? Lol 🙂 sweet dreams !
If Hawke gets a SAG nomination, I think First Reformed is in as a nominee. Right now BP looks to be a face-off between ASIB and Roma. The other serious contender list is fluid until several guilds register. My BP list right now is Roma, ASIB, The Favourite, First Reformed, Beale Street, Green Book with Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns, and First Man battling for additional slots.
Come to think of it, FIRST REFORMED has one helluva Oscar narrative up its sleeve and we barely even noticed :
1. Four-time Academy Award nominee Ethan Hawke broke through 30 years ago with Dead Poets Society, has been working steadily ever since, received two nods for acting (both in supporting) and two for writing. This would be his first ever nomination in Lead.
2. Paul Schrader has written 7 Oscar nominated roles in three films (Affliction) including two BP nominees (Taxi Driver, Raging Bull) and yet he has never received an Oscar nomination for writing or anything else.
Conclusion : those two nominations very well could happen this time and if a film has nods for acting and writing, a BP nod in the expanded category is definitely a strong possibility all of a sudden, too. Especially if the film makes a dent in the BD race, as well, between now and Nomination morning.
I could totally see Schrader getting a career prize for screenwriting like James Ivory did for Call Me By Your Name, and that would make me very VERY happy.
Well, I expect it to be nominated for BP along with lead actor and screenplay. It could possibly get BD but I am not predicting at the moment. But it much stronger than people think. It’s in fifth or six spot for me.
BlacKkKlansman is now 0/4 with the precursors. I thought the NY critics might be the first to throw him a bone in Screenplay or Director given his NYC roots, but no dice. Is this movie dead now?
It was very surprising, it has a hefty number of fans here. I’m curious to see what would have happened if they did a full list of nominees instead of winners. So far, Adam Driver is the only aspect of the film to be recognized. I still think Spike Lee ultimately makes the cut for screenplay
Screenplay maybe, because the field is so weak. What would make it in over Klansman, First Man? Unlikely. But Director definitely not at this point, I would say.
It’s looking like it, and it’s looking like, if there’s a Hollywood slap in the face of Trump, it will be in favour of Roma, not BKKK.
It deserved better than this…
Alright so what are the next few bigger awards to come down the pike and when?
not sure about critics’ awards but the Golden Globe nominations come out Dec. 6 and SAG Dec. 12.
Nice to see someone supporting the girls.
Well most on this thread were seeing ROMA emerge triumphant and I expressed the same feelings. The film is a staggering epic masterpiece.
ASiB is appropriately shut out in the first serious critics awards. Hope the trend continues with LAFCC and NSFC.
Me too! Praying for it to be snubbed across the board.
Well, NYFCC awarded almost only ROMA among the perceived front runners for best picture. No The Favourite, no Green Book, no Blackkklansman, no First Man, no…, and no ASIB… hating on a film always results in frustration when it wins, just saying.
Love that Eighth Grade is being mentioned, one of the best movies of the year!
Those other films haven’t been as overrated for awards considerations. People actually thought that the snooty New York critics would award such low brow entertainment.
Roma is the first non-English language movie to win NYFCC’s Best Film since… Amarcord 🙂
Too bad it wasn’t since Fellini’s Roma.
Worth noting that only five times the past 25 years has the NYFCC Best Film winner gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
1993: Schindler’s List
2003: Return of the King
2007: No Country For Old Men
2009: Hurt Locker
2011: The Artist
What about best actress?
Five times in the past 25 years.
1999: Hilary Swank won NYFCC and Oscar for Boys Don’t Cry
2005: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line
2006: Helen Mirren in The Queen
2011: Meryl Streep in Iron Lady
2013: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
Thanks for you very informative research, and right on time!
Wow, you’re too quick for me, @disqus_JNQUhQAtnn:disqus:
[Swank, Witherspoon, Mirren, Streep, and Blanchett]
the outcomes are not bad enough to be called a curse, especially for a foreign language black and white movie like Roma, the increased visibility is probably a net benefit for the film.
And all of those were large stats favorites on Oscar night. So, if the race gets tight, Roma probably doesn’t win.
Roma. I’m excited for this joint.
This year is going to be one of those rare instances where NY and LA agree. I think Roma will win big in LA too.
Personally, the biggest surprise to me is nada for The Favourite. I really hope we see someone leak the runners up to see if there was a movie that didn’t show up as winners but were right there in runner up.
Totally agree with you. When they released the runner-up we might get a idea if The Favourite and ASIB were ignored completely by the critics in New York
ASIB was probably very distant in every race except maybe Actress. The Favourite was much more hurt by the shutout.
Well noted, my dear Aragorn, son of Arathorn
.
.
.
I coudnt resist
Voters would not forget The Favorite If they have the limited commerichal plan on Hulu. They have played the add to death.
So essential only two films got boosts here. Roma and First Reformed. Next please…
If Beale Street Could Talk did okay: it only really needed the King win, although it should have been a contender in Screenplay and Cinematography (but those awards are likely going to drift towards Schrader and Cuaron).
Well. I mean other than Best Actress, the films that won one award were all contenders for those awards, so to me it just doesn’t mean much unless they continue to win thus building their momentum.
Well, I think Roma for Best Film and Best Director was fairly predictable, so then the only “surprise” was perhaps the strength of First Reformed (2017) and the second Regina (Hall).
But I take your point.
Beale is Adapted and critics usually prefer original. Plus it didn’t need any boost. King won and has been more dominant than I expected. It looks like a M’onique season for her.
BEST FILM: Roma
and that took all of like two minutes to decide. wow
Wow, managed to call everything except Actress, Animated Film, and Non-Fiction Film.
Wild conspiracy theory: maybe they decided Best Film before Best Foreign Film, so that they can safely award Cold War?
ASIB completely shut out in Gaga’s backyard. LA Critics awards suddenly get much more interesting.
I was doing so well in my predictions, and then it all went south.
I see what you did there
omg that was TOTALLY unintended lol
So looking forward to seeing this film.
Donald Trump has just tweeted: “Fake! 3 million Mexicans voted multiple times!!!!!”
Donald Trump wouldn´t even know Roma is about Mexicans…
“Hold on, didn’t Fellini make Roma first. Fake remakes. Sad!”
But Trump thinks Fellini is some kind of pasta …
This isn’t pasta, they’re Freedom Noodles
He uses freedom noodles for his wig!
No, he thinks Fellini is what Stormy Daniels performed on him.
True. But he might even think it’s about Italians. Ofcourse we all know Melania would know it’s about Romans…
People really don’t get that Trump’s near Hitler level of animosity towards Latinos could be setting up the zeitgeist moment playing right into the hands of the Roma campaign.
I’ve been dubious of that scenario but now …
As increasingly insane as the world is getting, I wonder if Oscar voters are asking themselves if they really want to award BP/BD to a film that literally says NOTHING of substance (cough cough..ASIB) as opposed to Roma or Beale Street that clearly speak to today’s world despite being period pieces.
Considering who’s in charge of Roma’s campaign, I’d say it’s a given.
Roma will win. Sigh.
Sigh? Why sigh?
I figured it would win…just was hoping for something different here.
In a movie landscape where lowest common denominator filmmaking increasingly is ruling the roost (and that includes ASIB in several key ways), it’s nice to see a 70’s style auteur work land with critics groups.
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA
Saved!
I think it’s getting Best Picture too
it already did
It’s Alfonso
Is Regina King really that good, or is it just the obligatory “minority” award?
gtfo
why do people ask this every time a person of colour wins an award? it’s annoying
It’s a cool trick of the right wing, they claim to be “color blind” and believers in “meritocracy” but when a black person achieves ANYTHING suddenly they turn around and insist that the achievement was grooved, unfairly awarded, or unearned.
Preach! Yes yes yes
So true. Cuz we all know Viola Davis and Morgan Freeman and Denzel Washington are just talentless hacks compared to the very deserving thespians Jennifer Lawrence, Sandra Bullock and Gwyneth Paltrow.
Lawrence and Bullock won their Oscars for the wrong movie. Paltrow is..well…uhhh
(I actually like Bullock and Lawrence.)
I do too. Bullock is turning into a solid actress, but Lawrence needs to seriously rethink the projects she’s picking
Speaking of Denzel, Soldier’s Story was on the other night. Man alive he had IT..i..t..IT right off the bat.
And what a goddamn shame Howard Rollins turned out to be
Totally agree about Denzel. I also thought Jewison’s direction was pretty sharp.
Film holds up surprisingly well.
disregard
lollolololololololololol
Are you really this ignorant or is your racism just THAT reflexive.
gtfo
Can you ask if Ethan Hawke is really that good , or is it just the obligatory “white” award?
Seriously dude, watch the film and see for yourself.
somebody’s a jerk
Perhaps you should first watch and then make a judgement? Also remember that plenty of white actors win despite not being that good so your question is kind of redundant, anyway.
Cinematography? At least call it what it is…videography.
How so? Because he used a digital camera? Heads up, that’s becoming a standard camera in movies.
Yes. I am happy digital video has its fans. I happen to be a film guy. No big deal. I always have Tarantino, PT Anderson, Wes Anderson, Damien Chazelle et al.
If you didn’t know Cuaron used a digital camera, would you have been able to tell based on the trailer?
I can tell Immediately with any trailer. If they looked the same, why would i care? They look nothing alike, nor should they. should they. Video is a legit medium, and God bless those that enjoy it .
It’s not about that — it’s about how the camera was used and what’s on the screen.
One of the great feats of cinematography in the past few years was the film Tangerine, which was filmed, or recorded or whatever you call it, on an iPhone. It was great not because it was done on a phone — it was great because the way the camera was used to convey the story was dazzling.
Wonderful, unless you only like film – like me and a small handful of directors.
Your statement suggests that you subscribe to the “pretty pictures” school of cinematography — that great cinematography is only about how attractive the colour palette, and the image quality, are, and that film alone can achieve true excellence in these qualities.
To me this is a fundamental misunderstanding of what makes great cinematography.
Great cinematography is not JUST about how pretty or rich the colours and images are. It is about how the camera (or whatever device is used) is employed, how it frames the action and moves within the action to depict the story and convey character and themes.
That’s why a something based on media other than film can have superb cinematography.
That’s why low budget films on poor quality film stock can have great cinematography.
Very well said and absolutely correct.
It isn’t that complicated. I like the medium of motion picture film…pretty, ugly or in between. I must settle for the works of Tarantino, PT Anderson, Damien Chazelle and a few others. I accept this.
Or just simply how aptly it captures its environment. It’s beautiful but doesn’t enrich the story?
I never really understood this. Is the framing of the shots and deciding how the camera moves the job of the director of the cinematographer? Or do they generally work together on these?
Hmmm…has Cuaron never won a Best Director award by this group? My quick research says no. But they did award it to Jenkins for Moonlight. Maybe they go Jenkins/Roma for the finale.
Pretty sure it´s Roma/Cuaron.
Damn — i predicted Jenkins for Director here but i might not have if i’d remembered they gave it to him for Moonlight
nah. They awards multiple times for people a lot. Ronan won twice in three years. Streep wins all the time, etc
Original Screenplay is going to be a donnybrook of an Oscar race between Cuaron, Jenkins, and Schrader.
Jenkins is in Adapted, and Cuaron is not winning Screenplay when he has so many other categories to be honored in. Original is Schrader’s to lose at this point with The Favourite, Vice, and Green Book elbowing for runner-up.
Jenkins is adapted, my bad.
ASIB actually has a tough path to BP unless Cooper starts winning a ton of director precursors
And yet people are surprised that a film that could be a serious bet to win screenplay isn’t certain of BP? It’s dumb. However, I think it could be a different story with guild and Academy. “The Favourite” is female heavy and critics tend to favour male centric films. The Academy could think differently like they did last year with TSOW and 3B.
Or Cuaron and If Beale Street Could Talk?
Spread the wealth. Jenkins/Cooper could be a good choice. And Roma/ If Beale Street could Talk
First Reformed is a character study for sure. Not surprised at all for the love it’s getting. It’s kinda weird because only 32 ppl went to see the movie.
A great film, albeit Bergman’s Winter Light for this generation.
I agree. Those Chamber pieces remain classics.
Hadn’t made that parallel, but you’re totally right !!
Dang it, I almost predicted Ethan Hawke. That would have brought my correct guesses to a total of 1!!
Haha, I don’t even predict these things anymore, such a shoot in the dark.
I feel like I should be happier with 6/9 so far than I am…
I’m awful at getting these things right, but I still find them kinda fun to predict (and then laugh at how terrible I am at it hahahahaha).
I predicted Hawke and I have predicted First Reformed for picture, but i didn’t predict Schrader.
I don’t know how but I’m on 6. Normally I bomb. If Beale Street and Jenkins triumph it’ll be 8!
spoke too soon…
So, First Reformed could actually go all the way? Colour me shocked.
I know, I can’t f—ing’ believe it. I’m like “What the actual…?” I was so hoping for that to happen and now that it seems that there are more chances of it actually happening I don’t want to get too excited about it because I honestly still can’t believe it does. This film is just pure genius. The ending haunts me.
Both Regina’s Congrats.
Best Screenplay: Paul Schrader, FIRST REFORMED
The same shills who insisted that NBR meant ASIB was home free are working on their spin.
Wow, that’s a Schrader sweep of the Gothams, NBR, and NYFCC in the Screenplay category. Nothing else has gained any traction so far.
What’s left? Screenplay, Director and Picture?
I’m going BlacKkKlansman/Jenkins/Roma here
That’s correct. (Not sure about your predictions.)
REGINA HALL!!!!!!!! PLEASE GAY TWITTER LET’S PUT THIS CAMPAIGN OUT THERE FULL FORCE!
BEING REWARDED FOR THE CAREER AS BRENDA HAHAHAHA ITS HER TIME!
Regina Hall is great in ‘Support The Girls’, and I hope the Academy actually considers her.
Although I fear this could be like Tiffany Haddish from last year.
Amy Adams deserves to have an Oscar (or two), but I can’t help but root for Regina King.
Amy Adams should really have at least 2 additional Lead nominations (Enchanted, Arrival) and I can only hope that she will win in lead soon, maybe as soon as next year for Joe Wright’s The Woman in the Window (dude is great with actors). I just don’t want her to win on her sixth nomination in the supporting category for a wife role.
P.S. I love Regina King and hope she wins this year.
I get exactly what you’re saying. Amy should have at least 2 additional nominations as a lead for her astonishing work in both Enchanted and Arrival and as much as I want her to finally win an Oscar, I definitely don’t want her now to win a supporting award for playing someone’s wife. F*ck that, she’s so much better than this. I’m sure she’s phenomenal in Vice but I want her to win a Leading Actress award, not a supporting one and I wanted the same for Viola Davis but alas. That’s why I’d be perfectly happy if Viola did win as a lead for her magnificent work in Widows (not going to happen probably, but I hold some hope anyway).
There goes Rachel Weisz from Deep Blue Sea!
Hopeless critics !! shame on you !! Poor Glenn. 🙁
I can’t with Glenn stans, worst than that just Gaga stans. NYFC are critics, and that’s why they exist, to recognize what they like no matter who is campaigning or not. The Wife is pure oscar bait.
I’m in ecstasy watching 2 cult favorite from mine winning here. First Richard E. Grant and now the fantastic Regina Hall… I thought Anna Faris and her were the best thing in all the Scary Movie series, and Academy Award Nominees Regina Hall and Richard E. Grant sound like music to me. Hopefully one day, Anna Faris (remember, she was scene-stealer in Lost in Translation and Brokeback Mountain) will also get that chance, too.
Yes Reginassss!!!! (plues yes Anna Faris, they are so amazing)
Love that Hall won! But she will join the 5 or so from the past 20 years that won’t get nominated at the Oscars.
Possible shock fifth nominee there?
Possible yes. But I am not sure who she knocks out.
McCarthy or Close
I don’t see her making the cut at the Oscars but this is nonetheless a very deserving nod for an excellent, criminally overlooked film. Plus you gotta love how after a myriad of supporting roles Regina Hall is having a career renaissance between headlining the smash studio hit Girls Trip, playing an important supporting role in the critically acclaimed The Hate U Give and headlining a critically acclaimed indie darling Support the girls.
All true. But my God I love her in the Scary Movie franchise too. She’s just great all around.
You’re so right, she’s just so, so good.
I loved Regina in The Hate U Give.
Best Actress: Regina Hall, SUPPORT THE GIRLS
Huh
Guess I need to see Support the Girls.
Wow. A real shocker. But she was wonderful in that very charming film.
Regina Hall!!!
NGNG: Best Actress will take them 30+ minutes.
I think Yalitza or Melissa McCarthy might surprise here.
I think actress could be a surprise. Someone like Aparicio, Kidman, or Pike.
Colman has huge acting cred in the UK and will be playing QEII in the next season of the Crown. My thinking was that the NYFCs will want to annoint her now.
NYFCC I think they would go for Gaga. I can’t erase from my mind that Cameron Díaz win for “There’s something about Mary” (deserved!) and the buzz on how they simply melt for the younger actresses
I predicted Colman but it was between her and Gaga. Definitely think they could go for her.
But she’s not a young actress, she’s a superstar.
she’s younger than her main competitors: Colman and Close.
If they don’t go for Close, I would love it if they went for someone like Pike or Knightley.
What are you talking about? Besides two Ronan wins recently who are the younger actresses that have won? By and large, they actually pick women that are older WAY more than younger.
2000: Laura Linney
2001: Sissy Spacek
2002: Diane Lane
2003: Hope Davis
2004: Imelda Staunton
2005: Reese Witherspoon
2006: Helen Mirren
2007: Julie Christie
2008: Sally Hawkins
2009: Mery Streep
2010: Annette Bening
2011: Meryl Streep
2012: Rache Weisz
2013: Cate Blachett
2014: Marion Cotillard
2015: Ronan
2016: Hupert
2017: Ronan
re-read. “I can’t erase from my mind… the buzz on how they simply metl ofr the younger actresses”. It was a buzz (past) that always comes back to me, this time of the year.
Ethan Hawke!! My God, yes. Can both Hawk and Paul Schrader’s unforgettable film sweep the entire awards season all the way up to The Oscars? Too much to hope for, I guess.
Toni Collette here we come?
Ethan Hawke!! Yeah! The most deserving
Question : am I the only one considering the possibility that with First Reformed emerging (deservedly so) as a considerably stronger than expected contender, this could also lead to a maggiegyllenhaalesque supporting actress nod for Amanda Seyfried ?
I think so. Seyfried was really good and tender in her role, but Gyllenhaal was magnificent as she always is. If a better actress performed Amanda’s role she could knock the competition out of the park. The love for Crazy Heart helped Maggie’s brilliant performance earn a nod as well. I wish Amanda was a better Mary but she’s not. She’s solid, nothing Oscar-worthy. Maggie by the way deserves every Best Actress award in the world this year for The Kindergarten’s Teacher. She’s like 10 times better than Gaga and that’s an understatement.
Agree on all counts.
That’s just it about Gaga’s performance. It’s not that I think she sucked, it’s that I’ve seen SO many exponentially better lead actress performances this year – including Gyllenhaal’s – that all this aggressive hype just frustrates me.
I mean this aggressive hype around her is unfortunately completely understandable. She’s a beloved pop icon that proved she really can act in her first lead role and in a film that connected incredibly with mass audience. It just doesn’t feel right when there are so many far better lead performances from other actresses this year. I’ve yet to see so many lead actress performances this year and she’d be just my 20th favorite lead actress performance already. She doesn’t deserve THIS hype, understandable as it is. If you ask me, though, early as it is, I think she’ll end up with The Oscar and only Close or Colman can really challenge her. She has the perfect narrative and it’s such as a shame that all these narratives, PR tactics and all this sh*t have any impact but sadly they do. The Oscars are the biggest, most glamorous celebration of cinema, it’s definitely not the acknowledgment of “the best”. If an award titled “Best Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role” wanted to live up to that, Isabelle Huppert would have won plenty of them, from Violette to The Piano Teacher to 2016’s Elle. Glenn Close would have won several years ago as well and Emily Blunt wouldn’t be still nomination-less. Oh well…
yes you are the only one, and that includes Amanda’s own predictions 😉
Yeah that’s what we said about Maggie Gyllenhaal up until Nominations morning.
Gyllenhall was swept along by the Best Actor frontrunner, Hawke is not there, not yet at least.
Key part of that sentence is “not yet”.
Amazing, Ethan Hawke – this is such a cool, simpatico guy!
I’m losing hope on Ben Foster getting any big critics award.
Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, FIRST REFORMED
Oscar nom, here he comes!
Oscar win.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
I’m beginning to think he’s going to steamroll wins, building momentum… and he’s OVERDUE.
I pray for that. In a fair universe, he’d sweep the entire awards season.
Yep. Very likely as only once in the past 25 years or so has their winner not been an Oscar nominee (Timothy Spall). They had eventual supporting Oscar noms as wins with Ledger and Keaton but other than that, once since 1993.
I’m surprised they did not conclude that in 5 minutes.
Well it only took 15, still one of their shortest deliberations today.
just saying … so far i have Cinemtography, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Actor correct on the post i made yesterday on the other disucssion board about the NYFC
Congrats!!! Nice work!!! I’ve been off so far with the exception of Cinematography.
my streak has ended with Actress but i am thrilled for Regina Hall!
Can it mean, Grant winning, that McCarthy is taking home Best Actress?
Or that they really wanted to give something to their film that they loved ? Who knows.
That would be nice. Except so far this season, Grant’s been getting the nods and she has not. Go figure!
She really needs recognition somewhere to put the wind back in her sails. I just saw CYEFM last night and thought she and the film were pretty incredible. I’m mystified why she missed both the Gothams and the Indie Spirits.
The indie scene may hold it against her that she is a big movie star famous for studio comedies a.k.a. the exact opposite of everything they represent. Too bad because McCarthy really was a marvel in this role. I don’t think she will make the top5 in the end but nonetheless she was indeed excellent.
Since 2014 Regina became a serious contender in the award season with great performances and great shows. If you look in the past, we only saw her in small roles in comedy movies and now she is the highlight in every job we watch. Its like Viola Davis said: “you can not win a emmy (in this case, a award) for a role there are not there”
Kudos for Mrs. King
NGNG again: Mary Poppins Returns wins and shocks everyone.
Lmao can you imagine??
Not predicting it, but that would be fun. Early buzz is great.
I think Amy Adams will win LA. The critics there loved Vice.
I love Richard E. Grant since Hudson Hawk. There, I said it.
Jesus, I would’ve put him in the top 5 for Darwin Mayflower. Only Michael Lerner and Samuel L. Jackson were better.
Not since Withnail and I????
it depends on which order you saw his filmography. I discovered him with his over-the-top hilarious acting duel with Sandra Berndhart… I love Hudson Hawk. Soooo underrated, soooo fun… sooo misunderstood.
“Outbid by mine own wench, Quelle Bummer!”
“I’ll torture you so slowly, you’ll think it was career.”
ah ok — I’m old enough to have seen Withnail and I when it was released and it was a revelation. I still quote lines from it to this day.
I love him in both Bram Stoker’s Dracula and Gosford Park.
Those two + Logan, Their Finest, Jackie, Dom Hemingway for me. Brilliant character actor, even with the smallest roles he can leave a lasting impression. Nice to see him finally get some proper recognition.
Course if we’re bringing category fraud into it. Anthony Hopkins should’ve won Supporting Actor that year. 15 mins of screen time.
Haha well it’s a love-or-hate performance, just like the movie.
Have you seen his autobiographical directorial debut Wah-Wah? It’s actually pretty good and Miranda Richardson and Emily Watson are great as his mother/stepmother.
Lucas Hedges could be the big surprise of the day in Best Actor. They did go with Chalamet last year so at least you know they are not against young actors as much as the Academy is.
It’s possible. They do tend to go a bit obscure with best actor, i.e. Timothy Spall, Robert Redford etc.
I would love it to be Hedges but think we see Hawke for some reason. But what if we see them go Redford here! That would be crazy and awesome.
Smart money is on Hawke but they could surprise with someone like Ben Foster or John David Washington.
but Boy Erased is rather bad.
Except that it isn’t.
Except that you’re wrong
So not true.
Boy Erased is “rather” astonishing.
This King win is big. For the rest of these awards I mean. I think we could see a Beale surge with a couple big wins in screenplay/director/shocker in picture?
It’s definitely a possibility in Screenplay. I think Roma will take film, and splitting with Jenkins just feels a bit weird.
I predicted it for Picture and Screenplay (but not Supporting Actress, weirdly enough, they’ve had a thing for Weisz in the past so I went with her). Beale Street is just such a quintessential New York movie, I can totally see them falling head over heels for it.
NY critics didn’t fall head over heels for it though. I’m expecting First Reformed and Roma to be big at the end of the day.
If Roma DOESN’T win, after also losing Foreign, I wonder what that means for its momentum.
If it loses both Picture and Director, it means it’s dead. And it’s my favourite of the year.
I wouldn’t say it’s DEAD just because it loses at NYFCC, but I would certainly reevaluate its strengths and weaknesses.
Not simply because is loses at NYFCC, but because it loses both the big categories AND foreign film. But I’m still quite certain it’ll win Best Film.
If it is the best film, it’s also the best foreign language film. So if it wins Best Picture, I think the NYFCC needs to learn some logic.
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
SWEEP
It was a Laurie Metcalf sweep at this point last year, too.
I reckon Amy Adams will swoop in and win everything at the televised awards. But I am hoping Michelle Yeoh at least gets in at LAFCA.
That’s exactly the scenario I see happening as well.
Thank God
Here as well, the choice that made the most sense. I think they’ll surprise us with Best Actor.
Like Richard Grants performance.
Based on that still, I definitely have to see Cold War. And I’m not talking about her. 🙂
That scene was shot on a nice street at Montmartre. I was there last year, trés belle!
I didn’t notice the street either. 🙂
😉
The film is very sexy and very sad.
I hated this movie so much I walked out! It’s dreadful! So mad it’s won 2 awards already
interesting — what did you hate about it? the trailer makes it look like it could be pretentious and precious, or fantastic.
The choir music is ok at first, but it goes on and on though the whole movie. I was so sick of it and the grand love story was so underdeveloped I had no reason to root for the lovers. With so little screen time together and hardly any dialogue it was very vague.
I was so disappointed with this movie since I loved Ida so much. I have hardly ever walked out of a movie so this was a big deal for me.
But I’m in the minority most people seem to love this film! I hope you like it 🙂
I’m decidedly with you in the minority. And I grieve as I say that because I idolized “Ida”. (see my avatar). But “Cold War” was so jam-packed with political/historical “references” it felt like a lecture. I, too, never felt the “love” between the two principals. When he smacks her across the face and the script gives her a Lauren Bacall comeback — “Now we’re talking” — I wanted to walk out (I was at the New York Film Festival so I very grudgingly stayed in my seat). The gorgeous B&W cinematography was all I took away from this deeply dispiriting movie experience.
Your so right it was like a lecture! I was at the Windsor film festival and I tell u I was the only one who waked out right after he gets thrown on the train. The cinematography was georgeous so I’ll agree on that but yikes the rest was terrible!
I wonder why they’re not announcing the runners-up this year? I love seeing those. Hopefully they’ll still be posted to their website or something even if they’re not announced on Twitter.
They don’t announce the runners-up, LAFCA do.
Not entirely true. They may have stopped doing it but the NYFCC definitely used to.
Uhh, NYFCC absolutely has runners-up, or used to. Last year Lady Bird won Best Film and The Florida Project was the runner-up; Sean Baker won Best Director and Guillermo del Toro was the runner-up; etc.
Yup. For instance…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_New_York_Film_Critics_Circle_Awards
They weren’t announced, I think they were leaked by one of the members. I don’t remember their runners-up being announced, but maybe it’s just my memory.
Possibly. I just know that the runners up are definitely available to see. Lou sometimes reveals voting like this…
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1rsqsec
You’re correct. They have at least as far as I know not officially released the runners-up in the previous decade at least and every list of those runners-up has been leaked by a member (something that weirdly stopped for a while after Armond White got kicked out)
After a quick scroll on twitter, I’m happy to confirm that they did not announce runners-up during their live twitter announcement last year.
I just did the same. I still hope we get to find out one way or another!
I’d love to see Natalie Portman in Supporting Actress. It needs to start somewhere.
I can’t wait to see her upcoming movie “pale blue dot.”
This is the group that gave Tiffany Haddish their Best Supporting Actress prize last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them give it to Michelle Yeoh this time around.
Worth noting that four of the last five years the NYFCC Best Supporting Actor winner went on to win the Oscar. Only time they didn’t was last year when they picked Dafoe.
And in a just world he would’ve continued the streak.
Not in my opinion. He was good but never understood his frontrunner status early on.
Disagree he was great but Rockwell had the most difficult character and arc to pull and he nailed it.
Pretty sure this is the order of the remaining awards:
Best Supporting Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Screenplay
Best Director
Best Picture
If King doesn’t get BSA next I think Beale Street may get nada. 🙁
Richard E. Grant is a wonderful choice. Ali would have been as well, but Grant is deserving.
Seeing Cold War win Best Foreign film makes me assume they are intending to award Roma Best Film.
We’ll see. Giving Cuoron Best Cinematography looks to me like the beginning of several awards for the film, not some sort of consolation prize…
I’m seeing Roma tonight. So excited!
Correct Danny, Cold War’s win means 95% probability ROMA takes top prize methinks. 🙂
Also agree, BUT if not? Oh man, that would hurt Roma big time, especially since the NBR didn’t Award it it’s foreign prize as well.
Roma not getting either Picture or Director would be a disaster after losing Foreign Film.
I think NBR’s rules don’t allow for any film to be in both foreign and top film categories. Has to be at best one or the other. But I guess it “only” being in the top ten and not getting top foreign film at NBR might seem like the lesser citation.
Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Yep, it made the most sense. I hoped they would announce someone unexpected but he had to win a top critic prize.
It’s such a NYC movie, I’m not surprised to see them honor it. It could pop up again in Actress and/or Screenplay, too.
Meh. I just really didn’t think anything about that movie was great. He was the best part, admittedly, and deserves a nomination probably but not a win in my opinion.
Is it just me or did Grant just channel Bill Nighy?
Just you.
or does Bill Nighy channel Richard E. Grant? Grant was a known actor with his inimitable style long before Nighy came to prominence.
Fantastic. Loved his performance.
Is screenplay or the supporting categories next?
No idea. We’ll know when they announce, I guess.
I think the supporting categories are next, but not 100% sure.
Whatever it is, it’s already taking long, so the voting might be close.
Whatever it is, it’s taking them a mighty long time to decide.
Best Cinematography: ROMA
I think only “Cold War” can compete against Roma for the wins in this category, everywhere.
I was predicting Cold War but yeah, I think a black-and-white film will win this year.
Best Animated Film: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
The newest toy effect seems to be in play this year as well
The reviews were quite the surprise to me.
from the trailer, it was clear this was going to be a disaster or an almost masterpiece. Kind of no middle point here… and since Marvel has now more control over Sony than they ever had… I was certain it would be an Oscar nominee… and now I think this is a 3-way race between Incredibles 2, Spiderman and Isle of Dogs. Both superhero films can cancel each other out, so I am guessing Anderson will win.
Makes sense to me.
It’s helped that it’s co-written by one of the people behind The Lego Movie (with him and his Lego Movie partner producing the film).
Well, not really since none of the Lego Movies have been nominated for Best Animated Oscar.
I don’t know if NYFCC usually love to spread the wealth among films but any film not titled Roma winning Best Foreign Language Film will always be an upset. Go Cold War!!!
Best Non-Fiction Film: MINDING THE GAP
I got that one right! yeey
Yes! I both finally got one correctly and my personal winner in the category won
Took them almost 30m to make that decision. I wonder what else they were considering.
Probably RBG.
Probably there was some support for Won’t You Be My Neighbour, perhaps Three Identical Strangers and perhaps smaller stuff like Hale County This Morning This Evening and Monrovia, Indiana
This is my problem with these overlapping categories. Just like the NBR, how is Eighth Grade getting Best first film or directorial debut when ASIB is clearly superior and foreign film seems to be going to Cold War or Shoplifters when Roma is on top. Exactly why Oscars don’t have a first film category or breakthrough performance. They suck. Like winning a junior prize.
But then again, it’s a way to help put a new name to the discussion. Who cares if Bradley Cooper gets a first time director win, it’s not going to help him that much. Instead Bo Burnham getting the award might help his career
ASIB is NOT superior to Eighth Grade.
Okay, well you may not feel that way, but since this is an Oscar prediction site, I think it’s fair to judge the quality of the films based on the number of nominations they get, and I don’t think it’s up for debate that ASIB will get more. So that’s all I meant by that.
Even on an Oscar prediction site like this there is absolutely no reason to push away personal preference for films on a numeric variable like how many nominations a film gets as a metric of a film’s quality.
Fine. “Superior film” as it relates to the number of Oscar noms it will receive. There, fixed it.
Thanks for the clarification, it was much needed considering your original statement meant something completely different.
I understand your point but at the end of the day it is nice to see various movies winning various awards. The NY film critics are not trying to predict the Oscars and that is what is great about the critics groups, as all the rest of the awards shows (even Bafta) are becoming more and more “Predict the Oscars” fairs which is pretty frustrating.
Oscars should have a Best Ensemble and Best Stunt category… but Breakthrough would inmediately cancel wins like Anna Paquin, Robert Redford or Kevin Costner (they won all for their first feature film, one as actress, the other two as directors)… I’d rather have the “popular” film around… but just look as how docs, animated and foreign language film just dream of a Best Picture nomination and know they can’t win the big one… even if some year, a doc (2002, Bowling for Columbine) or an animated (Toy Story 3, Up, Inside Out) could have been a Best Picture threat
Seeing “A Star is Born” right now. So far, so good. 20 minutes into the film, but still liked to peek-a-boo here for the NYFCC
Hooray for my beloved Cold War!