Every win changes the conversation. This weekend we’ll get a few more of those. Los Angeles throws their hat in the ring this weekend, as well as San Francisco and Philadelphia. The Critics Choice nominations are announced Monday. But as you can see, there is already a strong consensus forming around a handful of films. We’ve all been doing this long enough to mostly know how it goes, although it’s worth pointing out that a movie can seem like a slam dunk nominee and still be left out for the Oscars, like Inside Llewyn Davis inexplicably was (it was the cat, I’m telling you).
What do we know now that we didn’t know before the Golden Globe nominations? Well, not much. This is a year where the nominees are every which way. There are so many variables at play that this isn’t like a usual year where we are working with a small number of films that will then be narrowed further as the season wears on.
Believe it or not, this is still considered “early” in the awards run. But there are a few things that seem clear. There will be an effort to push Black Panther, BlackKklansman, and If Beale Street Could Talk. How those three end up will be interesting. I suspect all three will get in Best Picture, but none will be strong contenders to win Best Picture unless they also have writing and directing, preferably acting nominations. Since BlackKklansman got director at the Globes — Spike is a big star — and Beale Street got screenplay, neither of them can claim strength over films that got Picture, Director, Screenplay, and acting nominations. There were only two movies who received that trifecta: Vice and Green Book. A Star Is Born did not get screenplay. Roma did not get acting nominations (and not eligible for Best Film), though it did get directing and writing, which is key. The Favourite missed out on director. Black Panther only got Picture and Original Score, which isn’t enough to take it into frontrunner status, as Scott Feinberg and Anne Thompson have been tempted to do. My thoughts on this are as follows: without BlackKklansman and Beale Street in the same race, Black Panther would have a much better chance. But Spike Lee’s long unawarded career and the overall importance of his film, especially in the Trump era, make me think it will be pushed harder in writing, directing, and acting than Black Panther.
Why am I grouping them together, you might ask? Because they’re all black people and I’m a racist? Well, I hope that isn’t what you think of me, but they are competing the same way three women would be competing in an awards race that is generally, for decades now, dominated by white males. Though the Three Amigos have caused such a low level revolution, we have to amend that slightly. Films about the black experience in America is what we’re talking about, and that would also include Green Book, even though its filmmakers are white. Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, and Beale Street are all about race, not so much black against white (though BlacKkKlansman is) but the black experience, the black American experience. So we sort of have to think about them competing for the same voters to which all these films will appeal, and all three are, of course, competing with the other films in the race.
What isn’t doing so well right now are films about white male heroes. Faltering heroes are okay, like Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born and Viggo Mortensen in Green Book, but almost every other central performance in the movies that are doing well are anything but white male: women, people of color, LGBTQ, etc. Interesting, no? Surprising? Uh-uh. Not considering the era we’re living in, not considering how we talk about movies and representation now, and not considering who is in the White House. It is to be expected. It’s just… interesting.
The question now is going to be what will happen with the preferential ballot and five choices for Best Picture? Will the push for Black Panther, BlackKklansman, and Beale Street cause voters to split that all important number one vote? Does that mean something gets left off? The Globes don’t use the preferential system. The Producers Guild do, but they have ten choices: we know all three of these films will have no problem getting in at the PGA.
I think we have to assume all three are in for now because in the case of the Globes, every so often a film gets in there but misses at the Oscars, like Rush, like Carol, like The Ides of March. But with all of the publicity right now for these films, the energy, the excitement, the buzz, it feels like there should be no problem with that, but we’ll see. Put it this way: don’t be surprised if one of them is not on the list.
Bohemian Rhapsody is the other wild card. It only got Best Film and Actor at the Globes. But it still seems like it has enough juice, especially since it made so much money, to land in Best Picture.
Best Actress and Best Actor remain extremely competitive, both in terms of winners and nominees. There is still time to launch a performance into the main race, but we’re barreling towards the SAG nominations and those will give us a much better idea of how this race might go in terms of what the actors think. Keep in mind, that SAG is no longer SAG. It’s SAG-AFTRA. The randomly selected 2000 voters doing nominations will be not just actors, but all AFTRA members too (which include radio DJs, TV news broadcasters, not that there’s anything wrong with that).
Scott Feinberg’s idea of Black Panther potentially winning Best Picture depends primarily on it winning in the ensemble category at the SAGs. And honestly, it’s hard to imagine, if it is nominated there, anything else beating it for that prize, right? The only other really strong contender is Vice, or Green Book out of sheer love for the film (important aspect to keep in mind).
This is an unpredictable year where anything can happen. Stay frosty. You never know what’s coming next.
Off we go.
Best Picture
(in order of likely nomination, not win – because who the hell knows)
A Star is Born
Roma
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
BlackKklansman
Black Panther
Vice
First Reformed
Bohemian Rhapsody
Strong contenders:
Mary Poppins Returns
Can You Ever Forgive Me
8th Grade
First Man
A Quiet Place
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Fighting for that fifth slot: John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman, Ethan Hawke, First Reformed OR Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Fighting for that fifth slot: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns, Rosamund Pike, A Private War,
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade *
Possible contenders still:
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Viola Davis, Widows
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman or Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Also contenders:
Steve Carrell, Vice
Michael B. Jordan. Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Also contenders
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave no Trace
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice or Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Also strong contenders:
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Original Screenplay
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Vice, Adam McKay
Also contenders:
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
Ben is Back, Peter Hedges
Sorry to Bother You, Boots Riley
Tully, Diablo Cody
Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
A Star is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
David Magee, Mary Poppins Returns or First Man, Josh Singer
Cinematography
Roma
A Star is Born
Black Panther
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk or First Man
Editing
Black Panther
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Green Book
Production Design
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Roma
First Man
Sound Mixing
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Sound Editing
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Quiet Place
Black Panther
Costume Design
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Welcome to Marwen
Visual Effects
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Welcome to Marwen
Original Score
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Makeup and Hair
The Favourite
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
RBG
Minding the Gap
Three Identical Strangers
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Foreign Language Feature
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)
And that, my friends, is all she wrote. Literally. Next up, the film critics previews!