Best Picture: Roma
Runner-up: Burning
Best Director: Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
Runner-up: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Best Actress: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Runner-up: Toni Collette, Hereditary
Best Actor, Winner: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Runner-up: Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Best Supporting Actress, Winner: Regina King,If Beale Street Could Talk
Runner-up: Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
Best Supporting Actor: Steven Yeun, Burning
Runner-up: Hugh Grant, Paddington 2
Best Foreign-Language Film: Burning and Shoplifters (tie)
Best Documentary: Shirkers
Runner-up: Minding the Gap
Best Animation: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Runner-up: Incredibles 2
Best Screenplay: Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Runner-up: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Best Editing: Joshua Altman and Bing Liu, Minding the Gap
Runner-up: Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough, Roma
Best Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Runner-up: Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Best Cinematography: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Runner-up: James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Production Design: Hannah Beachler, Black Panther
Runner-up: Fiona Crombie, The Favourite
New Generation Prize: Chloe Zhao
Special Citation: The Other Side of the Wind
Previously
At 10AM Pacific Time, the Los Angeles Film Critics will throw their hat into the ring. Although at this point, there aren’t going to be many surprises. They might toss out a surprise or two, but by and large we know what the critics think, what they like and what they don’t like. What we don’t know is what the industry likes. Not yet anyway. We’ll get a small hint when the SAG awards announce their nominees Wednesday. That will be the first big consensus vote. Roughly 2,000 randomly selected SAG/AFTRA members will choose their idea of the best acting of the year.
The critics portion is about over – their consensus is Roma, First Reformed, The Favourite, Beale Street. That’s pretty much the films they’re circling as the year’s best, with stragglers here and there like Paddington 2 or the random female directed film no one can seem to agree on.
We’ll wait it out today to see what Los Angeles has to say but for the most part, this part of the story’s ending has already been written. The only way things will dramatically shift is if LA picks something outside the realm of what we already know, which they probably won’t.
I’m of the opinion that a Best Picture line-up (whether there re 5, 8, 9, 10 slots) needs to have those well-reviewed blockbusters to round-out a year. 14 contenders, I see.
-Black Panther
-A Star is Born
-Mary Poppins Returns
-A Quiet Place
Those would all qualify.
-Then you also have Blakkklansman (which did very well for itself, 48 mill)
-Green Book, which looks to make 40-60, if not more.
-The Favourite looks like a arthouse smash hit, maybe some commercial spill-over.
-Roma might do gangbusters on Netflix, but we’ll never know.
-Vice, yet to be seen. Could do great, like 80 mill, could bomb out (Cheney, divisive).
-I hear Beale Street is incredible, I just worry about it’s box office potential.
-First Man doing 44 mill is not a bad number, but based on it’s potential, a big miss.
-First Reformed did very well for itself, but not really an arthouse “hit”.
-Eighth Grade did well for a Summer indie. Could’ve done better.
-I’ll throw in Bohemian Rhapsody. Smash hit blockbuster. Though, I really do believe its success ends with the Globes.
Having said all of that, for great reviews/money-maker purposes, a great, well-rounded BP line-up would include, for me:
Black Panther
A Star is Born
Mary Poppins Returns
Blackkklansman
First Man
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Roma
If Beale Street Could Talk
Would love for A Quiet Place to get in, but at what’s expense (on the well-reviewed/money-maker scale)? A toughie.
O.K. – this could be a problem for A Star is Born and Green Book (and others), because the only preferential winner that didn’t win at least one award here was The Artist. Also, all but The Artist either won or were runner-up in at least two categories, and all but The Artist and 12 Years a Slave were either winner or runner-up for directing or screenplay. Add actor (for which 12 Years a Slave – which also won supporting actress, an award no other BP winner in this era was mentioned for at all – was runner-up) and you have a fairly relevant stat. (Before 2009 winners not meeting any of these requirements were far, far more frequent, possibly precisely due to the difference in balloting methods at the Oscars.) Interestingly, in the last 10 years, the category in which BP winners have been mentioned the most by the L.A. Critics (as winner or runner-up) is cinematography (5 times).
To sum up, going by the “at least two mentions and at least one win” stat, which is on 90% over the last 10 years (starting with the Slumdog Millionaire year), and which I’ll therefore be adding to the table, the BP winner should (according to this stat alone, of course) be among the following:
Roma
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
Leave No Trace (unlikely)
Burning (unlikely)
Minding the Gap (unlikely)
(Unless I’m missing one.)
And, adding into the mix the directing or screenplay mention principle (which is at 80% accuracy in the last 10 years, making it potentially a clue but not really a stat), the list is reduced to:
Roma
The Favourite
Leave No Trace (unlikely)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? doesn’t qualify according to the first, stronger stat, in addition to being unlikely. First Reformed (which I also think is quite unlikely to win BP) qualifies if we add actor, as suggested above, but has no other mentions, so it, too, does not meet the requirements of the first stat.
Oh, and Roma comes out as THE #1 favorite based on all of this alone, since it’s the only movie that qualifies according to all of the stats AND is among the top two for cinematography…
LA is my go to stat at this stage as they are most reliable of the bunch of critics. The stat indicates that the winner will be either “Roma” or “The Favourite” because their BP, BD and screenplay are very predictive since the preferential ballot. It’s implying that “Roma” is the clear favourite but it might not hit with the industry which puts “The Favourite “as the most obvious alternative. They are my top two but it could change with big snubs like what happened to Beale.
Beale has a small chance but that’s made even bigger if you combine it with missing GG and BFCA BD.
Or rather even smaller.
I would never place so much emphasis on a stat with only a 90% record over 10 years, and even much worse before that… It’s usable, but I don’t see why it would be more relevant than critics stats with far better records. Not to mention BFCA or Globe stats (which make ASIB a favorite over The Favourite – and Green Book -, and only a slight dog to Roma). Of course, you could be right. Maybe L.A. influences things more than the cold percentages suggest. Time will tell…
Each to their own but I trust some critics groups like LAFCA more than GG and BAFTA. Despite the fact that these major critics groups go for what they really like, they get some amazing overlaps overall. Although 90% might seem small but consider how much often they for wild picks and still get 90% match up. GG and BAFTA are made to overlap with Academy yet in recent years the Academy went separate from them when it look like they would match. The BFCA worries me the most because they are best predictors and they have big line-up, it’s one of reason it bodes very well for “The Favourite”. But saying I think the guild and Academy will go separate from GG and maybe from BFCA too. Despite what they said I don’t think the BD line-up is settled yet. I think it will be all over the place.
“but consider how much often they for wild picks and still get 90% match up”
Yup, that’s true – that’s an interesting argument. Still, given their historical correlation before that (which, like I said, wasn’t high), this could be misleading. It could also be that the preferential ballot makes them more useful, and their record will keep improving, at least compared to that of the Globes and BAFTA and, who knows, maybe also BFCA… We’ll have to wait and see what happens in the next 5-10 years. It’s hard to be sure right now. 🙂
By the way, has anyone noticed how manipulated the LAFC vote was? If Burning was the second best film overall, yet won Foreign, what did that make Roma in terms of foreign film? The group’s desire to twist their preferences to fit an agenda is an affront and slight to American filmmakers everywhere.
Cuaron has made more English language films in his career than Spanish language films. What “agenda” do you have your knickers in a twist over?
The reason why Burning and Shoplifters won foreign film was that it was voted on after best picture, in order to not just focus on giving Roma 20 awards but to champion films that could eventually be helped by things like the foreign-language win at LAFCA
I don’t know why these critics group go all in for Regina King? So far, she’s the only one that’s really sweeping in the acting categories. Was her role very special? Did she have her moments in the film? I haven’t seen If Beale Street so can anyone enlighten me? I really love Amy Adams to win though but I feel like at this point, there’s no Allison Janney in the competition. Regina will take it all all the way to the Oscars. See you in 2020 Amy when you win Best Actress for Woman in the Window.
There are three supporting roles by women in the perceived Oscar contenders that stick out to me (having seen all but Vice and Mary Poppins Returns): Regina King, Elizabeth Debicki, and Claire Foy. These women were the best parts of their respective films; however, If Beale Street Could Talk is appropriately considered the strongest film of the three and a stronger contender across the board, and the only one not hampered by disappointed expectations (at least in terms of box office).
Assuming AMPAS goes in for If Beale Street Could Talk, I think it’s pretty likely that King wins, but it’s still early, and Vice is still somewhat of an unknown.
I’m a bit puzzled as well. She was great, but by no means a “sweep” kind of performance. It wasn’t all that flashy or significant role. Maybe it’s the lack of a clear alternative?
And I don’t why no critics group nominates Claire Foy in First Man. She was so good especially the way she portrays emotions with her eyes. I hope theres a shift of narrative in the next coming days.
maybe because she was acting the hell out of a thankless role
Just got done watching First Reformed. While overall I wasn’t super impressed. It was fairly original for it’s unique religious/scientific concept, but it seemed like pretty much just a less powerful version of Taxi Driver. But Ethan Hawke does definitely give a great and interesting performance. At this point I’d feel kinda bad for him if he didn’t get a nod from the academy. I can see why the globes would dismiss him,but after winning so many critics awards (and maybe more to come) it’d be surprising for him to get ignored by his powers at sag and the academy.
As much as I love the movie, it’s hardly original, more like a careful meshing of Winter Light and Diary of a Country Priest in the modern world
Great movie, but yep
I like the variation of choices. I hate it when Critics Groups go ga-ga over one movie and over-awarding it. Here, no film won more than 2 prizes. And none won more than one top prize.
There is no such as the best art. It should be about recognition.
Um, what?
Of the five main critics’ awards announced today:
PICTURE
**Roma [LA, NY Online, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Toronto]
DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma [NY Online, Toronto]
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace [LA]
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman [San Francisco]
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk [Philadelphia]
ACTOR
**Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (2017) [LA, NY Online, San Francisco, Toronto]
Christian Bale, Vice [Philadelphia]
ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Favourite [LA, Toronto]
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? [NY Online, San Francisco]
Viola Davis, Widows [Philadelphia]
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Steven Yeun, Burning [LA, Toronto]
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? [NY Online, Philadelphia]
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther [San Francisco]
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
**Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk [LA, NY Online, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Toronto]
(ORIGINAL) SCREENPLAY
**The Favourite [NY Online, Toronto (tie)]
**First Reformed (2017) [San Francisco, Toronto (tie)]
(ADAPTED) SCREENPLAY
Can You Ever Forgive Me? [LA]
BlacKkKlansman [San Francisco]
The Hate U Give [Philadelphia]
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Roma [San Francisco, Philadelphia]
Burning [Toronto, LA (tie)]
Cold War [NY Online]
Shoplifters [LA (tie)]
**Largely dominant thus far
Congrats to Roma and Regina King for sweeping all five awards in their respective category.
Very happy for any attention being cast in the direction of First Reformed (2017), Burning, Leave No Trace, and Shoplifters (and Roma, though that’s more universally shared). Pretty satisfied with Toronto and LA choices, which are typically the closest to my tastes/opinions.
Oh my, Roma is wrapping up the awards for best film .. what a pleasure!
During the last week I was thinking about Regina King taking all the awards could be the same history of Metcalf last year .. but man, she’s been unanimous.
Now with roughly half the critics groups done, here is a summary of where we’re at (below).
Should the NBR really be on this table?
IKR. Eh, might as well.
Also, I’m not convinced that the New Mexico “group” that announced today is actually a legitimate group. It could be just be one person’s Twitter account considering that the Twitter handle is just NewMexicoCritic (singular) and has 170 followers only.
But surely a weird Twitter handle couldn’t possibly be a smoking gun here. They have been announcing for at least three years now. They may be new, they may be small, but then again so are a bunch of other critics groups we factor in and talk about nonetheless.
It is an association of about 50 journalists. Last year its winner was “Blade Runner”.
It’s 90 critics according to one of their Twitter posts. I just wish some of those 90 critics will come out and say this is a legitimate group. I didn’t really see a lot of NM critics on their followers list. Just because they announced winners every year since 2016 does not automatically mean its legitimate. It just means “they” have been doing this since 2016. Being skeptical is in my nature though, so maybe I’m just being hard on them.
Phantom, you forgot to include Washington DC Area Film Critics.
Thanks, adding it now.
you need another correction for wafca. Gaga actress cooper actor.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/272e102d05a273d5f72f6a09e67ad49f5bdb485e48c40e989c02d9682a00a2dd.png
It’s unfortunate that a film with a Black Lives Matter theme has a title that abbreviates to THUG.
I think that was intentional and a big part of the marketing for both the novel and then later the film. Or at least it is prominently featured on my copy of the book.
Wow, very interesting…
🙂 That’s a nice catch…
I think you might have miscolored Grant.
Indeed, thanks, nice catch.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? needs to be moved to “A. Script”.
Beautiful job, Phantom, as always. For years and years now.
At first I was vexed that you tinted Roma and Cuaron in grayscale. But then I understood. 🙂
Green Book, green. Check.
Vice, Yellow-belly coward Cheney. Check.
Burning, burnt umber. Check.
What’s going on with Beale Street?
Oh, ISWYDT: If Teal Street Could Talk.
Ok so Green Book and Roma were intentional, then I realised it is too many damn colours and movies so I just gave up on being intentional and just went random with the rest (I had some urgent Mrs. Maisel binge happening at the same time, too). But good guesses, though, I could have made those exact decisions subconsciously for all I know 🙂
BEST ACTOR
WINNER: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
RUNNER-UP: Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yessssssssss)
Since it sadly can’t easily be a reality imagine everyone’s reaction if Toni somehow scored that long overdue second Oscar nomination and went on to actually WIN Best Actress at The Oscars for that bravura performance she delivered in Hereditary. I mean it wouldn’t just be deserving as fuck, it would actually make for one of the best choices Academy voters have ever done for any acting category over the last 15 years or something. It’s just insane how good she is in her film, everyone pales in comparison. She’s just absolutely breathtaking.
I rewatched the film a couple of days ago and I was watching that scene towards the end where she tells Gabriel Byrne’s character “You’re the love of my life, please trust me, etc.” and I was simply in awe of what she does. Her talent is just out of this world. I remember watching as a 14-year old kid that table scene with her and Julianne Moore in The Hours and be like “wow, who is this phenomenal talent?” And it’s almost funny if you think about it how her entire performance in Hereditary plays like an Oscar clip. Like there’s literally not one scene even if she’s just in the frame or something where you aren’t like “holy shit, this lady IS the character”. She’s just frighteningly good.
I always remembered that scene in The Hours too… 🙂 And her turns in The Sixth Sense and Little Miss Sunshine, among other things. She’s great. (Haven’t seen Hereditary yet – will soon, most probably.)
Oh, you should definitely watch it. Definitely not an easy watch. A truly unforgettable film with a truly unforgettable performance at the centre of it. I’m a major horror fan so it was naturally one of the best experiences I had in a movie theatre this year. Anyway, Toni just rocks in it. I truly feel it’s probably a career-best turn. Astonishing, from beginning to end.
I’m a horror fan too, but I definitely prefer certain types of horror – for instance, I just absolutely do not like torture horror like Saw or Texas Chainsaw Massacre. The kind of horror Hereditary sounds like it might be is borderline… hit or miss with me. (As in I like atmospheric horror a lot, but usually not when it’s also too depressing, which this sounds like it might be.) That’s why I was hesitating. But you guys have convinced me with your enthusiasm for it. 🙂 And I do try to see the absolute best-reviewed horror movies in any given year, regardless of the subgenre, so I probably would have watched it eventually, anyway.
If you like Rosemary’s Baby, The Exorcist and/or The Shining, you will enjoy the hell out of Hereditary. It’s one of those classics that reward second- and third- viewings. In a perfect world, we’d be musing over just how many Oscar nominations it could receive in the techs, in addition to the already-lauded performances (by the entire cast, not just Toni Collette). It has a great look, it is editied skiillfully, it has wonderfully creep sound design, great cinematography, and a kick-ass musical score. I won’t be shocked at all to see it get one or more of these tech noms, nor would it surprise me if Ari Aster is a surprise nominee either for his script or his direction. It’s one of the most intelligent horror movies ever. It’s also scary as hell.
The Exorcist is brilliant and I love it, The Shining I like but don’t necessarily love (but it’s fantastically atmospheric and all that), and Rosemary’s Baby I just did not like the one time I saw it. Like I said, it’s hit-or-miss for me. 🙂 Could go either way.
Can we just pause for a moment to acknowledge the mention for Ben Foster wonderful performance?
It feels amazing. The fact that he wasn’t even nominated for Hell Or High Water irritates me to this day. A marvelous actor.
Just saw RAMPART again last night….wow…
At this point it looks like the only films with a chance to *win* BP are Roma, The Favourite, ASIB, Green Book, with Beale and Vice possible (but I want to see how they do when they open.) BlacKkK a distant maybe. One or two more nominees could be any of a long list.
Vice and Beale (and BKKKM) already strike me as too unlikely. The first four feel like they can all win, though. Maybe less so The Favourite, but still.
So far Bradley Cooper’s musical is not doing as strong as I thought. However, I am not surprised. A Star Is Born did win National Board of Review awards- often the kiss of death for Oscars. I still don’t buy that its going to sweep at the Oscars. I think its going to be like La La Land- an overhyped musical that people will be tired of by the time ballots are being checked off. Many people I talk to are not enthused with Gaga’s performance. They say its “OK, not great”. It will not be a great Actress win post-awards sadly. I actually found her relaxed and natural. But people like the over the top stuff. I guess we’ll see. Again, industry has not spoken yet.
PS- My fault on the Roma comment at the Golden Globes. Didn’t realize it wasn’t eligible for Drama due to Foreign Film thing. Still think the Drama winner is going to steal its shine possibly in headlines.
The scene where Lady Gaga starts recording the song with Bradley Cooper (when he tells her to play the piano while singing) is where the movie goes downhill and never recovers.
Or was it the SNL scene?
Regardless, the movie has a brilliant first half, and a horrible, horrible second.
I’m surprised how badly ASIB is doing with critics, I knew that would mostly snub it, but I thought it would get a few mentions at least. Still think it’s the BP favourite though.
Green Book really struggling too.
I really don’t understand how people overestimated A Star is Born. It is a contender, for sure, but nothing extraordinary. Box office is a factor, but it can not be the decisive factor. It can still win awards, but it is not a phenomenon or “the new titanic” as even this site told here once. If we think that Box Office can carry alone a film for a victory at the major awards so, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY is the one to look, because it is doing much better than ASIB,and BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY for sure can be considered a kind of a phenomenon, because it is not a good film at all. I honestly think it stole the thunder of Lady Gaga’s film. Also, ASIB doesn’t have the “important factor” to win, and when sites started to proclaim the film as a phenomenon and “the new Titanic” or “The Film to beat at the Oscar”, It think It could have changed the way critics was seeing the film.
I was reading somewhere the producers were hoping that the last song (the song Gaga sings in concert after Bradley dies) would surprise Titanic’s “My Heart Will Go On” in terms of sales and popularity and ubiquity. NOPE. Thud.
Zero proof so far that anybody is overestimating ASIB. (Except people who thought it would even dominate the critics portion, if there were any such people.)
I’m not surprised at all. Expected actually.
I actually thought Gaga and Cooper would be tracking better
Both are commercial studio films that are good, not great, and don’t add anything new to the art of film. Critics groups were never going to go for them, doesn’t mean the majors (Guilds, Bafta, Golden Globe, Critics Choice) won’t go apeshit for both. Actually they probably will.
Yeah, there’s going to be a huge divide except supporting categories and Adapted screenplay.
Yep.
WB only seems to be pushing SHALLOW. I agree with you, the closing song is memorable and I thought we’d be hearing more about it. Mystifying.
My previous post belongs underneath No Lemon Pledge’s obsevation about ASIB. Sotty!
Ethan Hawke runner up or Winner?
Winner, I’d imagine
Hawke is a critics darling. I am not expecting him to win the big awards. I think Cooper will win them.
As long as someone more deserving wins everything else
Someone like Cooper? Or Viggo?
What I was actually trying to say was: “As long as someone more deserving than Cooper wins everything else than the big awards, I’ll be fine”. These possibilities include at least at the moment Hawke, Joaquin Phoenix, Victor Polster, Meinhard Neumann, Brady Jandreau, Bryan Cranston (Isle of Dogs), Tomasz Kot, Ah-in Yoo, Adriano Tardiolo, John David Washington, Billy Howle, John Cho, Lakeith Stanfield, Matt Dillon, Nicholas Cage, Daniel Giménez Cacho, Ryan Gosling, Charlie Plummer, John Huston and Paul Giamatti. I’m sure several more will be added to this list
Toni Collette is gonna be my big Oscar disappointment this year, I can just feel it..
Ditto. I think she’ll get a BAFTA nomination (they nominated her for About A Boy and Little Miss Sunshine) and everybody will be predicting her. And then nothing.
The critics are keeping her in the conversation, SAG will shut her out. BAFTA might nominate her but I doubt AMPAS will.
I am praying hard for her to get in. It will be a real shame if she is overlooked for this soon-to-be-legendary performance.
Thoughts on whether McKenzie has an outside shot at a Best Supporting Actress nomination? She’s getting mentioned here and there, perhaps enough to give me hope. Same with Adapted Screenplay.
Portman’s chances seem minuscule/negligible at this point.
The last time Debra Granik directed a young woman in a feature film, her name was Jennifer Lawrence and the film was Winter’s Bone. So I’d say that was a very promising precursor!
You mean it’s a good omen? It’s not a precursor if it happened only once.
Olivia Colman and runner up- Toni Collette
Regina King!!!
NOMINATIONS FOR ST. LOUIS FILM CRITICS ASSOCIATION
Best Picture:
BlacKkKlansman
First Reformed
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Best Directing:
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay – Vice
Best Actor:
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST ACTRESS:
Glenn Close – The Wife
Toni Collette – Hereditary
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Charlize Theron – Tully
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Steve Carell – Vice
Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – Vice
Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eighth Grade – Bo Burnham
The Favourite – Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed – Paul Schrader
A Quiet Place – Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, and John Krasinski
Vice – Adam McKay
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters
Widows – Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen
BEST FOREIGN FILM:
Capernaum
The Captain
The Guilty
Roma
Shoplifters
Wow, no Roma for screenplay! That’s a 13/13 stat… Relevant!
Roma is looking really great right now – even if it misses SAG…
Even WHEN it misses SAG.
So, is Ethan Hawke unstoppable now?
The NYFCC/LAFCA combo is pretty mighty. But he missed Globe, no?
Chalamet won both last year.
Prior to Hawke, the NYFCC and LAFCA overlapped in Best Actor seven times since 2000, of which four men ultimately won the Oscar and the other three were nominated but lost:
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (2017) [*nominated for Oscar; lost to Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour*]
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (2010) [*won Oscar*]
Sean Penn, Milk (2008) [*won Oscar*]
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood (2007) [*won Oscar*]
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland (2006) [*won Oscar*]
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation (2003) [*nominated for Oscar; lost to Sean Penn, Mystic River*]
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York (2002) [*nominated for Oscar; lost to Adrian Brody, The Pianist*]
So it’s looking decent for a nomination for Hawke, but a win remains uncertain (especially considering the HFPA snub).
Has Cuaron ever made a bad movie?
Some would say Great Expectations is a bad movie. Cuaron himself thinks it’s a bad movie.
I didn’t watch it back then because I couldn’t stand Gwyneth Paltrow and her affected acting
I’m maybe one of the few people in the world that enjoy Great Expectations. I like the Dickeans atmosphere set on that time.
Even though I’m aware it’s probably one of the most 90’s film ever done.
That list definitely includes Reality Bites and Clueless!
This makes Ethan Hawke the most 90’s actor on Earth.
Good for him he was able to transition for the following decades
and who would it be for actresses? it can’t be Winona…she was more of an 80’s thing…
Silverstone? Neve? Heather Graham? Danes?
I think Gwyneth Paltrow can also make this case
Liv Tyler, too. I’d say
Well done! I forgot about Gwyneth. Maybe because I couldn’t stand her acting, but it’s easy to forget that she was in some great movies, including Talented Mr. Ripley, Se7en, Royal Tenenbaums, and the underrated Hard Eight/Sydney
His “I Am Autism” PSA was pretty offensively awful. Shocked he hasn’t apologized for it.
A Little Princess and Great Expectations.
A Little Princess is absolutely wonderful.
A Little Princess is a gem. One of the greatest fantasy films I’ve seen. It has kept its magic over the years and still remains elusive as it is enthralling. Also has Fellini undertones yet originally-concieved vision.
A Little Princess is pretty terrific.
A Little Princess came second in the Best Picture vote for 1995 at the LAFCA (behind Leaving Las Vegas) – and an inside source revealed that the vote was *very* close.
Just sayin’.
Does anyone have any intel on theatrical expansion for Shoplifters? I’m dying to see it.
According to Erik Anderson, the last film to win BP while being shut out at NYFCC and LAFCA was Crash. Not good news for A Star is Born or Green Book.
I need to check to make sure but I think that’s about right. It was the same thing for 3B (which also included shut out at NBR where ASIB did well but it might bias there). That’s one of the reasons I was refusing to accept 3B was winning BP. They need to do better than “Crash” with critics but they’re not at the moment. They need at least a little love for their film.
Not surprised critics may like these two movies but I doubt a lot would put them on their list of favorites.
Yes, and the not good news for Roma is that its Roma. A foreign, black and white, neo-realism Netflix film will NEVER win Best Picture no matter how many critics groups pick it.
But he was talking about “Roma” chances. ASIB and GB have not done minimum required to win BP. Beale, TF and FR have all won at least one award with these groups.
If I remember correctly, this one went to “Babe” back in 1995 – giving it a great push for the Oscar campaign of that film… so crossing my fingers they go for “Paddington 2” and it can be brought to the conversation… saw it yesterday, loved it.
Checked it did ignore “Babe”. Bad, bad memory..
Near perfection.
These are sorta decent.
the best choices in front of all the awards made so far … magnificente
Elizabeth Debicki was very good in Widows.
As she always is ever since stealing the show from the stars in The Great Gatsby.
she was the best part in the otherwise disappointing Widows
Agreed.
She’s also great and one of the best things in The Man from UNCLE.
She’s astonishing in anything. She has proved herself by now to be one of the greatest actresses of her generation. I watched her in this year’s The Tale and Widows within a space of two days. Each of the two performances deserve 10 Oscar wins or something and they couldn’t possibly be any more different with each other and everything else she’s done thus far. She’s just incredible.
Can someone start a campaign for Elizabeth Debicki??? She deserves more for Widows!
I think Widows is starting to feel like it’s creeping towards death unfortunately. It struggled at box office, nobody is mentioning it anywhere – I think it’s last real chance to launch a campaign is SAG – if SAG doesn’t happen for it it’s dead
no one knows who she is 🙂 sorry..
That’s so sad. She’s one of the best actresses of her generation, that’s who she is and I truly hope soon everyone knows. Her choices thus far have been fantastic.
Oh my God, can we start a campaign for her lol… I mean even if she just scores a nom for the film it will count as a win to me. She’s just insanely good in everything and this year she absolutely killed it, especially in this and The Tale. Her slapping scene with Viola was unforgettable.
A Star is dead baby 🙂 no Gaga no Bradley !!! Thanks a lot Lafca.
Critics groups hardly mean anything! Tell it means anything to Gary Oldman and Frances McDormand.
Both of whom who won multiple critics prizes last year?
I’m talking about the top critics awards, not the regional ones.
It’s not a very bad for the actors but it is very bad for the film’s chances to not get even a little critics love. I still believe Cooper will win actor come what may.
I think so too. I think Cooper will win the Globe in the Drama category, and that will start a steamroll. But I also think Rami Malek might be someone we’ve been underestimating this season. He was fantastic in Bohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury, and he might be someone to look out so.
It’s too late here, I’ll have to get some sleep. What a nice group of users this is. Good night!
This group freaking killed it. Well done, LAFCA!
Hi everyone! It’s Gail, the psychic! I’ve been traveling with my sister around Paris recently and sadly the Eiffel Tower was closed today for some odd reason. Anyways, we got a chance to channel some energies and I figured out some things. First of all, Roma is black and white. That doesn’t play very well on HDR screens or iPhones. It is not going to win anything at the Oscars but praise from the New Yorkers who hinder many thoughts about Cuaron’s Gravity win.
A Star Is Born is going to win everything come Oscar night. I already am channeling wins for Lady Gaga for both Song and Actress. Glenn Close will not even be nominated. A waitress serving us snails came by for our coffee refills, and I mentioned Close’s movie to her. She looked at me absent minded. “You mean the woman from that Michael Douglas movie?” She sounded confused. “She’s a wife now?” I said “NO. She’s IN a MOVIE called The Wife.” The waitress shook her head and left. Even with decent English speaking skills, she had never heard of this movie that released in the summer. It was a flop folks. It didn’t even make $10 million domestically. No one cares about Close’s losses in the past. Her last nomination was so bad (playing a man in that Nobbs fluff) that voters will be to embarrassed to check her off for a movie that SHOULD have been called The Husband.
Gaga on the other hand is groundbreaking in A Star Is Born. She does something no other female singer has ever done. She actually doesn’t wear makeup. SO she looks earthy and real. She sings from her butterflied soul like Streisand in Funny Woman and she has all those amazing closeups that remind us “Wow, she’s a real woman.” The movie has made $200 million and counting. For a story that’s been told a thousand Times, that’s pretty good. Bradley Cooper will join her at the podium too. There’s no way Christian Bale is going to win for playing the most hated VP in Presidential history. Not with Trump about to get impeached with Congress. You can hang it up.
Regina King will win though. Everyone loves her. My psychic sisters in Aimed, Iowa all say “She’s got sass.” They never have seen any of her movies or TV shows for that matter. But “like many strong women, she’s just the best.” She will win.
It’s foggy on Best Supporting Actor. I see an upset lurking. I think Ethan Hawke might be placed in supporting since he has no chance in hell to win Lead.
A Star Is Born will win Best Picture. It’s the most loved film of the year and Roma – again- is BLACK AND WHITE. And has subtitles. No one will know how to comprehend it, let alone make it the best. The film’s poster looks like a America’s Next Top Model beach photo. And no one is smizing.
I’ll be back dears!
Sorry your other comment got falsely flagged by the spam filter, Gail.
That filter is hypersensitive to paranormal auras.
I clicked a setting that should now allow you to come and go as you please. Just like the spirit of Ernest Borgnine who often haunts these boards.
I saw The Favourite on Saturday. What a masterful film. Weisz could easily topple King; Supporting Actress is a stomping ground for upsets. Colman, since she is a lock, could triumph over them all (including Gaga). It is a breathtakingly effective performance. The film itself is a stealth nominee; it will take several trophies I’m sure. Lathimons will be nominated for Director.
NEW GENERATION PRIZE
Chloe Zhao!
Thoroughly deserved.
YES!!!! The Rider is up there with Roma as my favorites of the year. I wish it would get more mentions from critics.
Another shut out for ASiB. Two (NYFC and LAFCA) down, one (NSFC) to go.
As it should be. The film is highly overrated, IMO. It will get tons of love from BFCA, and the Academy will follow suit. But thankfully the critics groups with cachet are recognizing superior cinematic achievements.
Its critical reception confirmed to me what I’ve been long suspecting : film critics are sheep. The first few go after Bohemian Rhapsody then the majority of the rest will, too; the first few go apeshit over ASIB, the majority of the rest will do. One got trashed by critics, one was praised to high heaven, when as far as I’m concerned, they are pretty equal in the quality department : good-ish (emphasis on “ish”) but far FAR from great and thus should be also far FAR from serious BP consideration.
Oh no, come on. I’m no fan of A Star Is Born but it’s miles better than Bohemian Rhapsody. Not because it’s great but because the other one is terrible. At least there’s a plan in ASIB.
To me they are at the same level. Both tried too hard to come off as much more than what they actually are : shallow popcorn films about musicians, with mediocre scripts and effective concert scenes. ASIB definitely is the better of the two but in my eyes, not by much and that’s why its rave reviews baffle me. How can any critic worth their salt rave about it after THAT botched second half with that awful writing ? Then again, it is subjective so if people loved it, good for them.
Trust me Phantom, people only talk about A Star is Born because it stars Lady Gaga. Bohemian Rhapsody would have had the same effect if Freddie Mercury was portrayed by Harry Styles or some contemporary male popstar who tried acting for the first time.
You honestly think that people who love BR aren’t responding specifically, and with enormous positivity, to Malek’s performance?
it also peaked too early, there was only one “hit” single, and not many men liked it
Critics choice is going to be so disappointing tomorrow, we get all of these great critics groups chiming in with truly great lists of awards (supporting actor here made me so happy for example) then the group that’s supposed to be a conglomeration of all of them comes along and just rubber stamps the most likely Oscar contenders.
Yes, prepare for vanilla.
But it’s not a group that’s supposed to be a conglomeration of critics. It’s a business enterprise.
Okay yeah but I guess it’s more the idea implies that it’s like these groups but nationally. It’s just that in practice that’s not what it is.
Right. It’s Fake Critics Association.
Hey, don’t insult vanilla! I like that flavor… 🙂
God I hate that group.
They are just professional Oscar predictors, they always strike me as the one group that doesn’t even attempt to recognise their favourites, they just want to crown the ones they think the Academy will, too.
Do you or anyone else know if their nominations will be livestreamed or something, or is it just posted online?
They haven’t announced anything but I’m sure they will
I would like to applaud LAFCA for the love they showed Burning. I just got back from seeing it, and it is a stunning masterpiece. It has vaulted to my #1 spot for the year. This is the type of film that will permeate in the mind for days. This is the type of exceptional cinema that needs to be recognized. Hopefully the Academy will agree.
It is absolutely fantastic (and likely my #1 of 2018 as well).
The Academy will probably not agree. I’m concerned that it may miss out on a nomination.
Not ashamed to say that I hated Burning, but not glad about it either.
Does anyone wish to try explaining to me why they think the protagonist of Lee’s film is interesting or compelling or sympathetic or in any other way worth investing two-and-a-half hours of life in?
I’d love to have been a fly-on-the-wall in the discussion room of the Cannes jury that basically snubbed it.
Interesting to remember, though, that a similar thing happened to Toni Erdmann (which I loved), while the Grand-Prix-winning, critically-dismissed Dolan film (which I actually quite liked) amazed everyone by joining TE on the Oscar shortlist, though the Cannes-jury-awarded pick missed out on a nomination while the Cannes-jury-snubbed film came through at the Oscars (and I still think it’s better than The Salesman).
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Burning and Shoplifters (TIE)
Great to see some love for Shoplifters.
Just declare Roma ineligible for Best Picture, problem solved. Keep it in foreign language film.
Terrific idea! What on earth could help us choose the best picture of the year more than disqualifying the one film all film critics are rallying around!
I would disqualify it for Foreign Language category, to clear its path for a BP contention.
We can write to the Mexican committee to not submit it as a Mexican entry.
I’ll be interested what they do with foreign film now – do they just put their bp choices down again or do they make them ineligible since they got bp?
I don’t think it’ll be officially “ineligible” but I presume they voted on BP before Foreign Language so that now they are free to vote for stuff other than Roma.
Not ineligible. But they might want to give recognition to other good works.
I kinda mean in their thinking rather than officially – like with NYFCC – Roma wasn’t ineligible for foreign but they gave it to cold war because I guess they didn’t see a need for giving it to Roma.
I kinda mean in their thinking rather than officially – like with NYFCC – Roma wasn’t ineligible for foreign but they gave it to cold war because I guess they didn’t see a need for giving it to Roma.
The race is still all over the place. Roma, Hawke and King seem to be the critical darlings of the season but that’s about it as far as consensus goes.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3ee424e1e6a6bfeab31c90d1538f11466d77fe9b53923e52ac3e1aa05bfa508.jpg
Oh the colour-coded chart, how much I missed it! You got it from someplace online, right? Would you mind sharing the link?
Yeah I just made it an hour ago, I needed to have a clearer picture of what was going on.
You could include San Francisco and Los Angeles Online in this chart (also, Gotham).
San Francisco, LA Online, LA, Toronto will be added later today.
Phantom, you will also will have to include New York Online and New Mexico. And I am very happy that Glenn Close won her first Critcs Group today with New Mexico Film Critics Association.
Cuaron’s first Director loss
Now he won’t be able to beat Sorkins 100% award wins.
So Roma won BP at LAFCA, NYFCO and Toronto today. Add that to NYFCC, Chicago, WAFCA and Philadelphia earlier. It doesn’t look bad.
And could win San Fransisco today, as well, they haven’t announced BP yet.
It just did win Best Picture at SF. Spike Lee won Best Director.
I mean, it makes sense. It’s the best reviewed film of the year.
I think this is just about what was expected to happen by everybody…
True, but it’s worth a remark. These total sweeps are not that common. Even critics’ favourites tend to lose here and there.
Fair enough.
Stats people, how do films/categories that match both LA and New York fare with Oscar
Timothee Chalamet won Best Actor from both last year and should have won the Oscar too. Still bitter lol.
I will long insist when Chalamet stupidly waded into the Woody Allen controversy he pissed off enough of Allen’s supporters in the Academy to hand the Oscar to Oldman. I think the same thing happened to Gerwig as well.
Better than individually. But still not great together, less than 50%.
The last one that hit the double was Boyhood and obviously we know what happened the end
The one before was The Social Network
Winners:
Kramer Vs. Kramer
Terms of Endearment
Schindler’s List
The Hurt Locker
Nominees:
Hannah and Her Sisters
Goodfellas
L.A. Confidential
Saving Private Ryan
Sideways
Brokeback Mountain
The Social Network
Boyhood
Not even a nominee:
Leaving Las Vegas
Leaving Las Vegas wa on both? Wow.
Schindler’s List and Hurt Locker won. 🙂
Yeah, this was compiled in two minutes (I also had The Hurt Locker in the wrong place at first). I’ll fix it
I need to see this Burning
It’s so good.
I feel like it’s going to struggle with the bigger awards though – it’s very metaphorical and kinda requires (at least for me) a rewatch and significant time thinking about it in order for it to be truly appreciated. I don’t know if industry voters will give it that time.
Yeah it doesn’t have a chance with the industry. It can be very alienating. Shoplifter is the much more accessible Korean option.
Shoplifers is Japanese.
You’re right! It’s past midnight here and I have a headache.
Isn’t Shoplifters Japanese? I didn’t think it had any Korean connection? Regardless yeah I otherwise agree… I love Shoplifters too though – they are both truly excellent films and both in my top 5 of the year right now
It is Japanese. It was my roasting head speaking.
It’s a great genre switch. You think you’re watching a bit of arty Korean romantic drama then suddenly it becomes a Hitchcockian thriller.
Edited: Because I’m an idiot and at first called it a ‘arty Chinese romantic drama’ when its obviously South Korean.
I know, right? This is a special movie.
I need to see Leave no Trace with Ben Foster. Soooo many of these movies came and went so fast. It was like “poof” don’t look because we’re gone. Look at Widows, it had NO legs at all and it was touted as one of the Must see movies. I don’t even remember Trace being in our theaters. So AMZ once again will get my streaming money. So far I’ve got KKlansmen and Sorry to bother you on the watch list. Guess I’ll add Trace to that list.
BEST PICTURE
WINNER: Roma
RUNNER-UP: Burning
That’s so LA. Two foreign film in top two.
So Roma, Hawke and King now have won both NYFCC and LAFCA. That’s a prestigious combo right there.
Roma and Hawke are probably going to repeat at NSFC too. Not sure about King.
My personal top 2 right now (though perhaps the other way around). Exceptional choices from LAFCA
“Leave No Trace” .What’s that?
It’s great advice if you’ve perpetrated a jewel heist.
It’s a film about the kidnapping of country singer Trace Adkins. Very underrated.
Steven Yeun!
(Toronto)
Hopefully L.A. will consider him as well
Honestly he’ll fall short at Oscar, but still not nothing
Of course he’ll probably miss eventually but a mention like TFCA will hopefully make people consider it as more than just “a foreign language film that’s really good” and start to think of it as being worthy of consideration otherwise as well.
BEST DIRECTOR
WINNER: Debra Granik, Leave No Trace (Omgggg yesssss)
RUNNER-UP: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
I do wonder how close Mackenzie got to runner up since obviously love it
Glenn Whipp said she was strongly in for the win.
It’s sad that she’s not quite got an official spot then – she really deserves some recognition (and that’s not just my NZ patriotism speaking).
Shock! However I still expect “Roma” to win BP. Maybe they went for different winner because Cuaron won for “Gravity”?
They love Debra Granik. Her previous two films won at least 1 award at LA.
Of the Oscar nominees, their vote is clearly Roma, so that’s really the only relevant part.
Yes, that’s how their stat works. The big Oscar contender is either first or second.
Foster lost by 1 vote
Nooooooooooo :((((((
I’m only glad about that because he was in the wrong category. He was great in the movie though.
Hawke is pulling a Casey Affleck
No he isn’t. Not yet, anyway. We’ll see at the end. But no one can ever pull a Casey Affleck. He is the most dominant actor in awards and of the most dominant in any category. He won about 85% of awards.
well, still pretty dominant, he lost one or two of them for now.
Yeah, he still very well. That’s true.
Affleck isn’t the most dominant. He lost 2 big ones – SAG, LAFC. The most dominant (in recent years) are people like DDL, Blanchett, Waltz, Monique, Leto, Arquette, Simmons.
I meant overall not just the big awards. 85% of every awards.
I wouldn’t say that. Affleck won the Golden Globe for Best Actor – Drama. Hawke wasn’t even nominated. He can still win, but it’s over if SAG doesn’t nominate him.
The deal is off only if you miss SAG.
He could get nominated, but it’s very difficult to win without a Globe nomination.
He’s pulling a Cotillard.
Only without the sexual harassment lawsuits
Not really. He couldn’t possibly without a Golden Globe nod. He is the critical darling for sure but first he needs to get that Oscar nomination. Critical darlings don’t always do.
Maybe he meant overall rather than a carbon copy of Affleck wins? I think he meant in terms of dominance overall. But no one n as dominant as Affleck and it’s unlikely anyone is going to be this season.
Regina King maybe.
She might be close to that but 85% is ridiculous. Nobody comes close to that total in acting awards. I think some of the closest might include Bardem and DDL, not sure. The only who has 100% award wins is Aaron Sorkin for TSN.
She is at 75% at the moment, only lost 3 out of 12.
This is an incredible number. But it just shows how strange and unusual Affleck haul was.
I’ve grown tired of Ethan Hawke.
lol. Backlash already?
The critics leave me no choice.
They really want him to get that Oscar nod.
Would technically be his fifth nomination
They really do. It’s a special project of theirs.
Hawke has competition. I’m tired of Regina King. So far no one else is a threat to her in the race.
if Colman is put in supporting (where she deserves to be) then she has this in the bag
I disagree. Colman firmly belongs in lead. She’s the Queen!
Rachel Weisz is a serious threat. She’s superb in The Favourite.
Shirkers and Minding the Gap, winner and runner-up. Netflix and Hulu. Streaming channels rule the day in docs.
Ethan Hawke is looking really good with NYFCC and LAFCA wins.
LA hasn’t announced Actor yet.
So far, this Sunday we have plenty of Critics Groups announcing. I would like to ask the site, if possible, to update all the results.
We have the winners of:
*Toronto Film Critics Association
*New York Online Film Critics
*Los Angeles Films Critics Association
*New Mexico Film Critics Association
*San Francisco Films Critics Circle
Phanton, could you also update your chart and show us your stats, please?
I realized that you missed Washington DC Film Critics in your wonderful chart of stats
Above.
Boyhood , Social Network , Hurt Locker trifecta of overrated films .
One of those I would say is a great film (Social Network) the other two I wouldn’t go as far to call them overrated.
Agree! But Brokeback and Roma truly are masterpieces.
Ahhh…. Opinions….
only say that about THL please.
I love all those films! I win!
BEST SCREENPLAY
WINNER: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
RUNNER-UP: The Favourite
Can you ever Forgive Me? Is a really good screenplay.
The Favourite is obscure and people probably won’t vote for it to win. It appears to be taking over PAUL SCHRADER’s spot as the original screenplay critics favorite
CYEFM is racking up plenty of awards today. I’m happy for that team, even though I haven’t seen the movie yet (looking forward to).
Go check it out. Reminds you an early 2000 BP contender. Melissa, Grant and the screenplay are really strong contenders. The best moments during the film are when Melissa and Grant share the screen.
Not sure which one you’re referring to 😀
Maybe Lost In Translation?
Gives you that feel while you’re watching it. IMO. Hopefully it’s still in theaters where you are and you can see for yourself.
I’m not in the US. It only comes out here in January.
The Favourite is CHOCK FULL of memorable dialogue (and situations). It is a strong contender for the win. FORGIVE ME is a good script, but it has formidable competition.
Once in a few years there is one film that’s masterpiece and it overwhelming wins critics awards. “Roma” is going to be the most dominant film since “Boyhood”. There are few such years this century: “Boyhood”, “The Social Network”, “The Hurt Locker” and “Brokeback Mountain”. I predict BFCA will go for “Roma” in BP and BD. GG cannot go for it but it will probably win BD, which is really the BP award at the GG. BAFTA is going to for it or “The Favourite” (I think that film might become stronger as the season unfolds).
Indeed if Roma wins BD at GG this year, it’s the de facto BP award for it.
God help us….
I wouldn’t call any of those five movies a “Masterpiece”. They’re all good, but, only HURT LOCKER was really deserving of Best Picture among them – let alone Pantheon status.
If one was going by the critical acclaim they receive rather on personal view, these films were the most dominant films in critics awards. That didn’t mean the Academy recognised them, though, except for THL.
Copy that. I’m just very very very very reluctant to use the “M” word.
I am too but I would call three of those masterpieces without a hesitation.
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is a FLAT-OUT masterpiece.
It is great but I wouldn’t call it a masterpiece. It is not a film which comes to the forefront when I think about the best films of the decade or the century.
It has to overcome two major obstacles first : based on precedent
1. foreign language films don’t win BP
2. films with unreported Box Office don’t win BP.
So much THIS.
I didn’t say it was going to win Oscar BP. If you look at other critical darlings only THL went on to win BP. I believed it was helped by the narrative of first female BD winner. I think BFCA will give “Roma” BP and BD because they are first critics and they usual break with Academy to recognise masterpieces. GG might give BD. BAFTA not sure but they like Cuaron and count him as a Brit.
Yeah I got that I’m just saying based on precedent as great as it would be if the actual masterpiece won, this particular one has major obstacles to overcome first.
Yes, but those major obstacles might not be as big as other films.
We’ll see. I hope they won’t be.
Yeah, based purely on the quality of the film “Roma” would dominate everything like the other four films I mentioned. That means winning BFCA, GG and BAFTA at least. The issue is about Netflix more than about being a foreign language. I understand how that might be an issue for film industry which is why I am uncertain about how well it will at BAFTA who usually recognises masterpieces and had awarded all four films I mentioned. I think BFCA will still award “Roma” and GG probably. The question is over the industry awards.
I think the major problem isn’t even Netflix, it’s that they can give it an easy “Best Film” win in “Best FOREIGN LANGUAGE Film” thus providing themselves a (half-assed) excuse to give BP to something else. Something probably considerably inferior as far as quality filmmaking goes.
Yes, but in a preferential voting for BP, it might not matter as much.
Yeah, but when was a film “Roma” being in contention? The closest you’d come to is “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and it nearly won having won DGA and GG BD. Which foreign film has dominated critics group as much and being directed a highly acclaimed filmmaker, including the Academy?
Maybe Haneke’s AMOUR a few years back ?
That film win load of critics for BP and BD? was ever favourite to win anything besides BFF and lead actress?
Not really but it was a top5 contender with nominations in picture, directing, writing, acting.
Roma winning for best picture is like Federer beating Nadal at RG or Nole at any other surfaces…not gonna happen….
Yeah but that’s not some sort of reliable stat. How many times have a foreign language film get nominated for BP?
Also, we’re in a new world now.
If Moonlight, a movie with no stars, all-black cast, about a gay subject, can win BP (over a prohibitive favorite no less), then a Roma can cross the boundary too.
That’s what the Best Foreign Language Film category is for.
Stop talking logic when it comes to awards.
If it were up to me the BP winner would be Roma, Beale Street or The Favourite (granted I haven’t seen Mary Poppins Returns yet, will on Wednesday though). All three films had GREAT 1. writing 2. directing 3. acting. I need a BP winner that pulls those three off with flying colours. That’s why I’m annoyed with the presumed frontrunner status of films like Green Book and ASIB. To me those are good at best in those three regards. OK, acting in Green Book IS great but everything else about that movie is “just” good.
I agree with you about Roma and The Favourite having great directing/writing/acting. For some reason, Roma built up over the course of its running time and left a significant impression (similar to Burning, Shoplifters, and others this year) while The Favourite did not (unlike Dogtooth and The Lobster).
Sorry, Roma has a weak script and is boring…a movie about nothing…
The exact same thing could be said about ASIB. Without a second of hesitation.
“Yeah but that’s not some sort of reliable stat. How many times have a foreign language film get nominated for BP?”
Five times since 1995 (in the SAG era). Counting Letters from Iwo Jima and not counting The Artist. Based on this and just my general impression, I’d thought there’d be more, but it’s only 9 overall. Still probably relevant, but definitely not a strong stat, indeed…
Screenplay comes next… First Reformed?
Probably that of “The Favourite”. I think one of reasons I am inclined to under the latter’s chances is because it is female centred. Plus it’s a about lesbians and there is little or no male with a significant role. Those films don’t do well for whatever reasons, especially with the Academy.
Michael B. Jordan shows up in the SFC nominations as well as a Black Kkklansman win for adapted screenplay
It was a win. They are announcing winners right now. The nominations were announced two days ago.
Thanks for clearing that up, Jhonny.
Has ASiB won BP anywhere yet?
Remember, THE KING’S SPEECH.
Just saying.
TKS did end up winning BP somewhere. Can’t remember.
No film has won Oscars BP without winning a BP at *some* critics award somewhere. In recent decades where critics awards have been mushrooming.
“No film has won Oscars BP without winning a BP at *some* critics award somewhere.”
That would be a first for sure.
It won Phoenix.
The Social Network won 24 including all majors (NYFCC, LAFCA, WAFCA, NSFC, Kansas).
WAFCA is major?
Ish. The way I see it, NYFCC and LAFCA are the top2, NSFC is close behind and Kansas being the oldest is automatically revered, as well. WAFCA is after these 4.
Phoenix Critics! That’s the only one outside of England listed on imdb for KING’S SPEECH!
BIRDMAN won in Phoenix (again!), Dallas, Florida, Gotham, K.C., Vegas, Seattle, Utah and the Online Critics Assoc. among others.
Thanks! You proved my point. 🙂
So ASiB’s fans better hope that the film lands somewhere, however minor the association.
I’ve posted several times the stat about Phoenix being the most predictive critics award for BP by far.
Hawke, Hawke, Hawke everywhere, another win in San Francisco, win NY online, win in Toronto.
Spider-Verse won NYFCO as well! This is a nice day.
Who else thinks that Free Solo will win the Oscar for Best Documentary?
It’s possible… It’s a big Field though!
I think Minding The Gap has a chance
That would be wonderful, even if I can’t really see it happening
I’m a big FS supporter; it’s my third favourite film of the year (out of 38 so far) – but I’ve actually seen none of the others docus (RBG, 3IS, MTG, WYBMN?) that are also getting major buzz.
It has two BIG rivals in RBG and Won’t You Be My Neighbor.
The Green Fog won the Douglas Edwards Experimental Film award
I find it weird that I keep hearing people talk about this film but no one seems to mention it online in the whole Oscars/best films of the year field
Animation:
Into the Spider-Verse
Runner-up: Incredibles 2
Incredibles 2 might have some competition.
Umm …. not really.
Spider-Verse won Animated! Woohoo!!!
Yeah, it’s good but it’s not winning the Oscar. It might not even get nominated but let’s hope it does. We don’t want another Lego Movie. Coincidently this is from the same filmmakers.
“The Favorite” won Best Picture at New Mexico Film Critics Association. It has also won Directing. Glenn Close won her first critics group prize of the season. Plenty of Critics announcement today.
New Mexico Film Critics Association is also announcing and they give the first critics prize of the season to GLENN CLOSE.
https://twitter.com/newmexicocritic
ASIB runner-up for ensemble – interesting…
So the discussion was category fraud with Coleman
Putting her in lead is the opposite of fraud if both her performance and role are big enough. I think the real category fraud is pushing a big role into support against small roles.
What he meant was probably that there was discussion about whether someone should be put in lead or supporting (a.k.a. whether someone being in one category is category fraud), not to say that LAFCA’s choice was category fraud
I get that. I was just pointing out that putting her in lead takes questions of category fraud out of the equation.
John Smith is being astute here. “Category fraud” is when a studio pushing an actor whose role is a lead (or co-lead) in a supporting category to boost the chance of winning the Oscar. Putting a smaller role into a lead is not category fraud, but rather category “risk”.
Yes, that’s it.
Weisz and Stone are really the leads though
How do you come to that conclusion? There seems to some debate about that. Anyway Colmans role and performance are big enough for her to be lead. Whether the other two roles are small enough for supporting is another question.
Of course I thought Aparicio was going to win here
I think all three ladies are being placed where they belong.
Meh, that’s debatable.
Very happy for another Collette mention. Wish she could be propelled into the Best Actress conversation
Probably not happening
I know. That’s what I think. But the performance is undeniable and keeps on popping up
Regina King won Best Supporting Actress at LACFA
Actress:
Colman
Runner-up: Collette
After the slow start, it’s finally looking really good for Colman.
It probably means Collette would have won actress if Colman went into supporting
That’s very annoying.
Colman belongs in Lead, although I’d have loved it if Collette had prevailed here. Both performances are excellent (and superior to Lady Gaga).
Supporting Actress
King
Runner-up: Debicki
Nice to see some support for Debicki – I really do think Widows should’ve been pushed harder this year!
Gave two awards out. Debicki was good hopefully Viola Davis gets a SAG nom.
I really hope Regina King wins.
I think Davis is out of the picture now. Debicki may have a shot, but WIDOWS kind of looks DOA.
Cuaron just won New York Film Critics Circle Online for Directing. It is a clear, clear sweep.
You know, New Mexico is announcing as well
Some of their picks are WILD, no?
But incredible
I fear Ike Barinholtz in Blockers might have been overstepping the mark though.
Their Best Actor winner will certain raise some eyebrows too!
In terms of quality? I’d kind of be interested in talking about whether it should be in which lead category it should be (for a film that is so obsessed with the divide between the psychological gender and the physical and physically learned gender I don’t think it should necessarily be brushed off that easily by what the physical gender of the actor is) but I don’t think many are interested in having that conversation
Is this like a legit critics group or just someone’s twitter account? I genuinely would like to know.
They had awards last year as well
They only have 172 followers on twitter, and their website doesn’t show anything other than who won in previous years.
And I just realized that their Twitter handle is actually NewMexicoCritic (singular). It’s only their name that shows New Mexico Critics. I mean why not use NewMexicoCritics (plural) as their handle? It makes me think that this is just one person’s account.
You might be right. Their choices are too idiosyncratic for group think.
Their winners so far:
Director:
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Runner-up: Lee Chang-dong (Burning)
Actor:
Victor Polster (Girl)
Runner-up: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Actress:
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Runner-up: Rose Byrne (Juliet, Naked)
Supporting Actress
Sakura Ando (Shoplifters)
Runner-up: Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Supporting Actor
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Runner-up: Ike Barinholtz (Blockers)
Ensemble:
The Favourite
Runner-up: A Star Is Born
Original Screenplay:
The Favourite
Runner-up: Cold War
Adapted Screenplay
Burning
Runner-up: The Miseducation of Cameron Post
Animated Film:
The Wolf House
Runner-up: Isle of Dogs
Foreign Language Film
Burning
Runner-up: Roma
Editing:
Roma
Runner-up: In Fabric
Cinematography:
Cold War
Runner-up: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Music:
Mary Poppins Returns
Runner-up: First Man
Production Design:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Runner-up: Shadow
Documentary:
Won’t You Be My Neighbour
Runner-up: Jane Fonda in Five Acts
Young Actor:
Zain-al Rafeea (Capernaum)
Runner-up: Lorenzo Ferro (The Favourite)
Song:
Suspirium (Suspiria)
Runner-up: The Shallow (A Star Is Born)
Ha. I like how eclectic and original most of their choices are.
So happy that Glenn Close won her First Critics Group Prize. Now people can stop saying “she is dead” or “she doesn’t have the critics”.
Picture:
The Favourite
Runner-up: Burning
Oh please. Just to mention one of these inane choices: “Suspirium” for Best Song. I’m all for diversity, but they have gone WAY OUT just to be “different.”
Or maybe they thought that Suspirium was the best movie song of the year. Not everyone has to be obsessed with The Shallow just because the Academy will most likely be
If a film other than Roma wins Best Foreign, then Roma will win Best Picture.
They award it after best picture, I guess in case Roma wins best picture
although of course it is totally weird for Roma to win Best Picture and then for another film to win Best Foreign Film
But, people have no problem when it’s the other way around! And, how many times recently has Best Foreign Film been better than the Best Picture winner at the Oscars recently?
A LOT.
No you’re totally missing my point, which is a logical point, not a point about the idiosyncracies of film awards.
If a film wins Best Foreign Film, it is regarded as the best film in a foreign language. But that film can still lose Best Picture because a better film that is NOT in a foreign language deserves that prize.
But, logically, if the Best Picture of the year is a foreign language film, then automatically that film should be the best foreign film as well. If it is not the best foreign film because it is inferior to another foreign film, then the other film should also beat it in best picture.
Sorry, that is just logic 101.
No. I get your “point”. Doesn’t take away from my “point”.
It’s just accepted here that most years, the Best Foreign Language Film winner is an after thought.
the oscars have never awarded best picture to a foreign film that lost the best foreign film award, so your point has no relevance to the point i am making
from the perspective of the oscars, the best picture and best foreign film awards have never conflicted
I’m not trying to make some profound point here — i get that film awards are illogical
i’m just saying, for amusement’s sake, that it is weird for a foreign film to win Best picture but then lose best foreign film
missing the forest for the trees.
except that i openly acknowledged both in my posts
#metoo
American Academy rewards American films. let the Mexican Academy reward Roma, How many American movies are given prizes abroad? It´s like giving the Heisman Trophy to a Samoan rugby player…things don’t work like that….
It is and it isn’t. The general perception is that a foreign language category is there to give exposure to a movie that usually can’t be competitive in the main BP category due to its not being in the English language. That isn’t the case for Roma b/c it’s directed by a major Hollywood director and being pushed and released by a juggernaut distributor. So a group can decide to give the foreign language award to some other more obscure movie.
As I’ve written before, if ROMA had been Directed by an unknown named “Alfred Carson” almost nobody would be touting it for best picture outside the usual Arthouse circles.
You mean like “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”?
Another picture directed by a “known” Hollywood quantity.
I’m saying Totally Unknown by the general populace in the U.S.
I don’t think Ang Lee was known by general US public in 2001.
You’re delusional if you think much more than 2% of Americans can name the director of Gravity or Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. You’re delusional if you think more than 2% of Americans can name 5 movies Hitchcock directed.
40% of Americans think Trump is a genius, and yet we’re supposed to think it means something that none of those Trump cultists can spell Cuarón? Heck, these days that accent mark could get him deported.
American populace? Fuck the American populace.
Bad wording on my part, but I wasn’t referring to Joe Popcorn. I was talking about Critics and Members of the Academy who vote on these awards. And, I think you knew that.
The Foreign film is giving to film not in the English language which cannot win BP. If “Roma” wins BP it’s kind redundant to give it BFF too. I think they should be given to two separate films. I hope the Academy give BFF to another film if “Roma” wins BP.
that’s not my point
of course weird stupid things happen in film awards, and who cares?
my only point, which is minor and just really for fun, is that if a FOREIGN film wins best picture, then by the rules of logic that film should win best foreign film — and if it does not win best foreign film, then the film that does defeat it as best foreign film should defeat it as best picture too
If one was following that logic then the whole Best Foreign Film category shouldn’t exist. Best Picture should include all films and they should compete on equal terms. But they made BFF to recognise the small foreign films. It’s about recognition.
Awards are not logical. Nor is it supposed to be.
yeah i just said that myself so it’s not necessary to repeat it
i said i was just making a fun point about the logic of this and the silliness of awards shows
Some critics circles have already awarded Roma best foreign film and best picture. So not all groups do the share the wealth thing. I don’t think the Oscars would, so if Roma loses Foreign, it’s done.
I was talking about LAFCA, not the Oscars.
I know. Other critics groups have already done that too. Given Roma Best Pic but another film best foreign.
Other critics groups don’t necessarily work the same was LAFCA or NYFCC where they have a group meeting and discuss their picks for winners.
“Roma” won both Film and Directing at the Toronto Film Critics. It is a clear sweep of the season. They gave Foreign Film to “Burning”. As I told in another comment here, “Roma” looks unbeatable and indeniable for Best Picture at the Oscars. I don’t see it losing on a preferential ballot. It looks like a consensus, has a passionate fan base – and support -, has the “important factor” and it is not divisive. It will have for sure all the votes of the international contingent of the Academy, which I don’t see anyway voting for “A Star is Born” or “Green Book” (they can vote for “The Favorite” too). I don’t think that in this case, the Neflix bia will be something impeending.
Wow, all this based on just critics?! Methinks overreaction… 🙂
I have a very good feeling that Roma will win Best Picture this year. From the movies I’ve seen so far this year, it’s the highest quality picture.
The Oscar very seldom goes to the “highest quality picture” though.
A Star is Born burns way to quickly – it reaches its highest point around the time the first rendition of “Shallow” is performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga at the concert. After that, the movie lost me a little bit. For a first feature, it’s impressive work by Cooper which would probably warrant a directing nomination but Roma has all the ingredients of a BP winner. It’s a personal story shown on an epic scale against a political backdrop without ever explicitly portraying it as such. Masterful.
I would love to have someone elaborate on the meaning of that plane shown over and over – what does it mean – that the servant would never get to experience leaving her country or is there a much more profound meeting? That we are minuscule? Just curious. Perhaps it has that connection to Gravity – in Gravity we observe Earth from above and in Roma we watch from below. I dunno.
I agree with your quality assessment (limiting it to possible contenders – as Burning and others are even better).
Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean it wins Best Picture.
NYFCO:
As safe as usually, The Favourite just won screenplay
Why is every group obsessed with Sundays?
Toronto:
Roma won best picture
Burning won foreign language
Toronto: Cuarón won Directing after more than 40 minutes and apparently a very close race.
Every group can say that, but the result has been pretty consistent thus far. If Cuarón takes it here (in LA), it’s already the beginning of a sweep.
The televised awards still matter the most. If Cooper, Jenkins or Lee grabs one of those it’s gonna be interesting.
And that would bode very well for Roma as well. Winning Directing and Cinematography already bodes very well for Roma. The movie is admired and fits in the Academy’s wheelhouse.
I wouldn’t be too quick. Very often someone sweeps critics awards and that can mean nothing when the industry starts to chime in (e.g. Timmy or Dafoe last year)
Supporting Actress is next. Probably the last chance to get a serious Portman campaign going. Please LAFCA!
Editing:
Runner-up: Roma
Winner:
Minding the Gap
Not good with stats but when has a documentary been nominated for best editing at the Oscars
Hoop Dreams
Woodstock before that
What a researcher you are! Thanks very much!
BOOM!
Appreciate that. I always wondered why Documentaries miss out in editing when they’re usually well editing.
But regardless of that lafca is kinda useless stats wise anyway, their picks are always too criticy and very rarely overlap. (Which is to say they are often much better than the Oscar winners).
^ This.
I assume Minding the Gap wins Documentary as well? NY/Chicago/LA would be a good critics’ haul for a great documentary.
Not necessarily. Edelman’s O.J. doc won editing a few years ago and after that it lost documentary
Fair enough. That was ridiculous. O.J.: Made in America was phenomenal.
New York Film Critics Online is also announcing its winners.
Let’s hope they go to lunch soon so than they can vote a bit better…
In Toronto we have a TIE for Screenplay: “The Favorite” and “First Reformed”. Curious: Steven Yeun won both Toronto and LAFCA today. Can he score an Oscar nomination for Supporting Actor? Sam Elliot looking weak. Missed the Globes and most of Critics group. I dream with a nomination for Hugh Grant. Who knows…
Production Design:
Runner-up: The Favourite
Winner:
Black Panther
For all that CGI?
BP shock winner for Best Film?
one of the best, if not the best, production designs of the last decade was 100% CGI: The LEGO Movie. Just saying.
This is kinda where we get into a tough question between production design, visual effects and cinematography and the lines get blurred as to which one is the actual achievement though (because the answer is normally a combination together yet we are asked to separate them).
Absurd
ugh
Do people think LAFCA will follow NY and award Roma Picture and Director? There’s only five times the two groups have overlapped in BP since 2000:
Sideways (2004)
Brokeback Mountain (2005) [*likely BP runner-up; lost to Crash*]
The Hurt Locker (2008) [*won BP*]
The Social Network (2010) [*likely BP runner-up; lost to The King’s Speech*]
Boyhood (2014) [*likely BP runner-up; lost to Birdman*]
I guess Beale Street or Burning are always options. Or Paddington 2.
Burning would be awesome, but I feel like it’s highly unlikely. More likely that they give it FLF and give Roma Picture.
Yeah and out of those five, only one won Best Pic, so I hope they give it to Roma. Betters it’s chances to lose the Oscar ironically.
I’m really looking forward to Burning. I love those slow burn thrillers like Burning.
Would’ve liked to see Sam Elliot or Richard E. Grant however Steven Yeun is my guy
Supporting Actor
WINNER: Steven Yeun (Burning)
RUNNER-UP: Hugh Grant (Paddington 2)
Top choices
This is the third overall mention for Yeun I believe (and second today). I wonder if this might go somewhere.
Will only believe it if he lands on the SAG list
I don’t think I’ve seen anything more perfect in years from any awards group
there is this group called San Diego Critics. Their nominees this year is pure love
They’ve got some nice nominees but nothing genuinely special like this or for example the Chicago nominees
besides Debicki, Yeun and some love for You Were Never Really Here its pretty average list no?.. but san diego really showed something great and deserved, that no one else did… Christopher Robin for visual effects. Buster Scruggs for picture. Both Granik & Burnham for director Carey Mulligan for best actress. John C. Reilly for Sisters Brothers Alia Shawkat for supporting in Blaze. Wes Anderson (finally) & David Lowery for screenplay. Have a Nice Day for animation. Game Night for editing. El Royale for score …. etc etc
I guess I just like the ones Chicago picked (Debicki, You Were Never Really Here, Yeun, The Other Side of the Wind, Paddington 2, Aparicio, Hereditary, Cold War, Suspiria and Annihilation) than stuff like Game Night, A Quiet Place, Have a Nice Day and El Royale. And while I love that The Ballad of Buster Scruggs and Leave No Trace got nominated there, those films don’t feel as necessary as for example You Were Never Really Here
This is pretty amazing. Steven Yeun will win my Supporting Actor award this year.
Grant was quite good in that movie.
This is why I can love critics groups sometimes. I don’t think I could’ve chosen 2 more perfect choices myself.
Toronto: Screenplay is a TIE: First Reformed and The Favourite.
Someone needs to correct the information on the site. It was not a Tie. Roma won Cinematography.
LAFCA Cinematography:
Winner: Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)
Runner-up: If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton)
I think it was a tie
LAFCA twitter clearly announced it the way I wrote. Idk where the tie news come from.
Up above on this post
LA is usually very clear when it’s a tie. I don’t know who’s updating this post but that is a mistake.
Aha!
I know I’m in the minority on this, but, I found the much vaunted “65mm Digital” look of ROMA less than glorious. Poor black level and dingy whites. Yes, it was a bit clearer due to, I assume, a higher bit rate, but, I don’t see why it’s the runaway choice for best cinematography.
Hayao Miyazaki is my favorite living director.
Toronto: First feature: Sorry to Bother You.
aka not A Star is Born, or Eighth Grade.
The vote for cinematography at LAFCA starts
(a.k.a. how long will it take until they announce Roma won)
Apparently, quite long.
For me, the only thing that can stop “Roma” from winning the Oscar is the “Netflix thing”. The film has a feeling of unbeatable and undeniable, like “Schindler’s List”. Cuáron is belove by his peers, and the film has the 2 key factors of winning the Academy Awards: important and non divisive. We already have Academy Members public campaingning for the film: Tony Collete said in an interview that she is voting for “Roma”.
More importantly, you may be asking Academy members to vote for Cuaron 6 times on a ballot (Foreign Film, Director, Screenplay, Editor, Cinematographer AND Best Picture).
That’s a lot of Cuarons!
Joe, in the technical categories, the name of the person is not listed on the balots. So, I think it will make no difference.
Fully understood. But, the narrative will be out there. Maybe not so much for editing, but, for Cinematography plus the other four. That’s still a whole lotta Cuarons to tick off.
The Academy gave a lot of Oscar to Alejandro Inarritu at the same night. I think they wouldn’t mind to do it with Cuaron. And again, in the technical categories, the name of the person is not listed on the balots. I don’t see a backlash happening on it, really.
3 isn’t 6.
My bottom line is that the Academy’s move a couple of years ago to democratize the Foreign Film award will quite likely hurt ROMA’s chances for Best Picture. Until then, you had to be part of the small branch to vote for Foreign Film. Now, it’s open to the full membership. So yes, you are asking members to, in effect, give ROMA two ‘Best Picture’ awards. Or, at the very least put it in the top 2 or 3 in the ranked ballot.
The Preferential system may still ‘save’ ROMA’s chances, but, I do think it’s a legit impediment
judging by the trailer alone, Cuaron deserves the Cinematography award
His name won’t be on the ballot even once, just the title of his movie.
You two REALLY think the voters won’t know by ‘election day’???
Yeah, they may be “only” actors and techs, but they ain’t that dumb! #tongueincheek
It’s not about being “dumb” or “ignorant”. It’s psychology. You see the name of the movie and you vote for it if you like it, you don’t think of the person behind it. Unless it’s the actors whose names are in front of you
Toronto picked Isle of Dogs for Best Animated Film. It took them 1 minute.
Toronto Film Critics Association is also announcing winners. So far:
Actress: Olivia Colman
Actor: Ethan Hawke
Supp Actress: Regina King
Supp Actor: Steven Yeun
Great taste as per usual. Their 2003 combo is still my favourite set of acting winners (Murray/Morton/Saarsgard/Richardson)
And it looks like LA sucks at predicting Best Pic anyway. Since 2000, they have only gotten three matching films…Hurt Locker, Spotlight and Moonlight.
But they’re usually the most fun of the big critics groups and I think that has worth in and of itself
You don’t look at these major critics groups as predictors for the Oscars. They start the conversation and it’s not a strike against the movie that win the awards here.
Actually I hope Roma wins LA. Out of the 6 times LA and NY have matched Best Pic choices since 2000, only once did that film go on to win Best Pic at the Oscars.
Sideways
Brokeback
Hurt Locker*
Social Network
Boyhood
King’s sweep is pretty impressive, she’s winning everywhere
So far, the only shoo-in Oscar of the season.
I think Adams is taking it!
Unless Vice becomes an Oscar juggernaut, it’s King’s for the taking.
She faces formidable competition in Rachel Weisz.
No. Rachel will get canceled out by co-nominee Emma Stone.
you were saying…?
Ha. Did I sleep walk through the season and the Oscars already happened?
Yeah, definitely a big step back in the campaign, but I still think King is the frontrunner. The SAG snub seems like a fluke. And until Adams defeat her (where they’re both nominated) in a televised awards … Let’s revisit post GG.
Haha I look forward to it!
Jenkins has the touch. Combine likely wins in SA and Screenplay he’s got a path to BP
Why is Sasha saying that the critics portion of the race is nearly over? It’s just beginning actually. There’s like literally 20 more critic awards that have yet to be announced (most starting in the middle of December). Momentum shifts all the time after New York and LA have announced their winners.
Looking at the past winners of the Critics Choice Awards, even though they’ve missed a few of the eventual Best Pic winners, every single one they missed, I agree with the film they awarded for Best Pic instead. And I think with time, it has only become more clear that they were correct to everyone. Check it out…
Fargo over The English Patient
LA Confidential over Titanic
Saving Private Ryan over Shakespeare in Love
Sideways over Million Dollar Baby
Brokeback Mountain over Crash
Social Network over King’s Speech
Boyhood over Birdman
La La Land over Moonlight
Those three love stories that won three years in a row (96, 97, 98) are especially glaring.
I strongly disagree with 4 of those and somewhat disagree with 2-3 more. Not surprising – I’ve always been something of an Oscars apologist… 🙂
https://twitter.com/TFCA/status/1071821470375075841
https://twitter.com/TFCA/status/1071818712116813824
Why is Toronto announcing at the same time as LA? smh
They’ll be done before LA begins
A few years ago I think it was LA, Toronto and Boston on the same day
A few predictions, some NGNG bold ones
Best Picture: Roma (RU: If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (RU: Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War)
Best Actor: Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (RU: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed)
Best Actress: Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (RU: Joanna Kulig, Cold War)
Best Supporting Actor: Steven Yeun, Burning (RU: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (RU: Marina de Tavira, Roma)
Best Screenplay: The Favourite (RU: BlacKkKlansman)
Best Cinematography: Roma (RU: A Star Is Born)
Best Editing: Vice (RU: If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Production Design: The Favourite (RU: Black Panther)
Best Music Score: Mandy (RU: Suspiria)
Best Foreign Language Film: Burning (RU: Cold War)
Best Documentary: Minding the Gap (RU: Three Identical Strangers)
Best Animation: Mirai (RU: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)
Something I noticed last night…Green Book has the highest “audience rating” on rotten tomatoes with a 95, while First Reformed has the lowest out of the potential Best Pic contenders with a 68.
I actually think Green Book could well be in a strong position to win Best Picture, regardless of the controversy.
God Roma looks unstoppable right now. Has any other film garnered these wins and not gone on to win Best Pic…
AFI Special Award (used twice before, both for Best Pic winners)
Venice Golden Lion
Chicago Critics
Philadelphia Critics
Washington Critics
New York Critics
Only ones it didn’t win so far are…
NBR
TIFF
Detroit
Roma as the critics darling was expected to win these awards ; the voters ,who generally have less refined tastes, will not be as impressed , I’d wager
Two words: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN. That is all.
Looks like it’s comparable. It won both NY and LA, and the Venice Golden Lion.
Plus later on it won Bafta, Golden Globe, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA and SAG Ensemble. Geez. I wasn’t following the Oscar race that close back then so I didn’t realize what an upset Crash winning was.
Didn’t Crash win SAG and WGA? that’s what I remembered.
Strictly speaking from precursors, I feel Moonlight is the bigger upset. Winning with only a WGA guild win.
Yes, I messed up. Brokeback didn’t win SAG ensemble.
Plenty of movies that swept critical awards ending up not winning Oscar BP. And their loss wasn’t even considered an upset as in the case of Brokeback. A few of those films come to mind… L.A. Confidential, Goodfellas, Social Network, Boyhood…
Would love to see a strong statement for Beale Street
NGNG
Film – Black Panther
Director – Spike Lee
Actor – Bradley Cooper
Actress – Melissa McCarthy
What’s NGNG?
No guts, no glory. Predictions that can come true, but probably not happening.
Bradley Cooper could do it. He’s kind of the Oscar frontrunner at the moment.
Exactly. I think he might win anyway, but this year the critics seem to be picking more of the indie films and actors, so I can’t get a read on things yet.
Cuarón is clearly the frontrunner in Director
I think he means Actor.
Film – If Beale Street Could Talk
Director – Yorgos Lanthimos
Screenplay – First Reformed
Actress – Yalitza Aparicio
Actor – Ethan Hawke
Supp. Actress – Regina King
Supp. Actor – Maharsala Ali
Cinematography – Roma
Editing – Vice
My predictions:
Best Film: Roma
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Best Actor: Ethan Hawke
Best Actress: Toni Collette
Best Supporting Actor: Steven Yeun
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Best Screenplay: If Beale Street Could Talk
All excellent choices…except for maybe Yeoh in that film. Way too broad for LAFCA, considering their history. I’d swap Yeoh for either Regina King or Rachel Weisz
Predictable or not, I have fond memories of kicking it for hours on a Sunday while the results from the LAFCA trickle out one by one. Ms. Stone, I am all attention. Make my day.