The critics have spoken. Roma has far and away been acclaimed the best film in 2018. Many in the Oscar industry that chirp and buzz in the months leading up to the Oscars are worried Best Picture will be Roma. They’re worried because this was the year we were going to make the Oscars popular again. From Anne Thompson at Indiewire to Kyle Buchanan at the New York Times, top prognosticators are saying the win should go to Black Panther because that will make the Oscars relevant again. Scott Feinberg at the Hollywood Reporter says that it COULD win, especially if it wins the SAG ensemble award (should it be nominated). That will mean the awards aren’t insulated from the public at large, that the Academy has their finger on the pulse of American culture, that they will not have to resort to a dreaded separate category. NBC News has even declared that the only way to SAVE THE OSCARS is to award Best Picture to Black Panther.
The writer quotes an anonymous executive: “The only interesting question this entire award season is whether or not voters reward ‘Black Panther,’” the Hollywood executive said. “If they do, they understand that there is a path to awards being relevant in terms of popular culture. If they don’t, they will continue to make awards more and more irrelevant to the masses.”
Yes, relevant to popular culture. Isn’t that what happened to Broadway when they began building shows that would appeal to tourists visiting Manhattan? Isn’t it a miracle when a Hamilton breaks through? A wholly original, risky work that came straight from the imagination of Lin-Manuel Miranda? But that isn’t where Big Hollywood is right now. That’s because Big Hollywood isn’t the Hollywood of yore anymore, no longer the crucible of American cinema. Now it always has an eye on international box office. Have you noticed that the films that do really well in a given year are remakes, or part of a franchise, or come from the cloth of something that was already made before?
One argument that can be made in defense of recycling ideas would be, well, movies adapted from books are still adaptations, so how are remakes or sequels much different? Isn’t an adaptation an adaptation and it doesn’t matter what the source material is? A lot of audiences are reluctant to spend money on something unless they know for sure what they’re going to get. This is true of the fast food business model too: the same dozen restaurants you see dotting every interstate all across America. They know they make more money if they limit the choices, guarantee consistency, and give people what they’ve come to expect, maybe introduce something new every now and then as a trial balloon as long as its equally ordinary.
Or perhaps a deeper reason that the Oscars have seemed to become “irrelevant” is that studios selected the audiences out of the process, or rather, herded the movies they liked into exclusive corrals. The Art of Cinema, as so many of us define it, as boomers in their 60s define it, sprang from the loins of Cahiers du Cinema, of the cinematic giants that analyzed and informed film history, shaped it, created a set of aesthetic guidelines that sought to separate cinema from easy entertainment. Truffaut, Bergman, Hitchcock, Bunuel, Rossellini, Kurosawa: these were some the key influencers who birthed the new wave of mavericks in the 1970s — Scorsese, Coppola, Freidkin.
Back before things really changed, the Oscars simply rewarded the films that made the most noise in a given year, whether it represented cinematic innovation or because it was impeccable entertainment.
Take a look at the way the top box office films have evolved over the years.
In 1975:
Then 1980:
1990:
2000:
2012:
2013:
2014:
2015:
2016:
2017:
2018:
You can see how dramatically the box office has shifted away from the kinds of films that used to be collectively defined as cinema towards something else — some kind of hybrid of films and sensory experiences on par with video games, virtual reality, new media. It’s all changing so fast.
In the years since 2000, when I first started covering the Oscars, it was clear that Hollywood was changing. Much of this had to do with the manipulative savvy of Harvey Weinstein. He knew how to give a large faction of Academy members the kinds of films they wanted. That led to the rise of the indies in the Oscar race, which in turn led to studios splitting off their main product to their indie branches to match what Miramax was doing. Focus Features, Sony Pictures Classics, Fox Searchlight, Paramount Vantage: they began the search to develop the “Oscar movie” — films that did not require the public’s pre-approval to be defined as success. That split led to the creation of a whole new species. Though there were crossover films that were both critically acclaimed and popular (like Gravity, The Martian, American Sniper), it was clear that there were now two different species of film existing and evolving separately from each other.
Now there is a new kind of hybrid that has cropped up: the inclusive blockbuster. The way that many younger people define “good” isn’t how cinematic it is, but rather how inclusive or instructive it is. A movie like The Force Awakens is celebrated not because it’s original (it isn’t) but because it has a female lead and a diverse cast. The same goes for the upcoming Mary Poppins Returns, or even A Star Is Born. The only thing worse than being called unoriginal is being called out for excess straight whiteness, which can quickly get a film branded as racist or homophobic or transphobic. If inclusive elements are absent in a film, that lack thereof can kill it outright. Not saying that such awareness and sensitivity isn’t honorable and long overdue. But as long as you follow those guidelines and check off the prerequisite boxes, anything goes. Boom goes the box office.
If the strictest definition of cinema is reserved for the critics, the awards community, and the industry, and if it never bleeds out to the rest of the population, then that definition, that standard is going to fade. Eventually.
A movie like First Man, despite being wildly cinematic (one of the most breathtaking and original movies about space travel ever made), has a tough time finding relevance in a culture that measures worth by how inclusive or redefining or deconstructionist it is on politics or identity. First Man can claim none of these things and was even attacked (by white critics) for celebrating white men at a time when wide swaths of American culture have become so blatantly racist. That means you can’t really make a movie about the 1960s NASA space program unless it’s less about the white people who made that history but rather about those who were left out and left behind.
If your definition of “good” of “worthy” is that it can only apply to art that’s inclusive or instructs society about how the world ought to be (as opposed to how it was and is), then it is no wonder that so many films are put through a strident purity test to make sure every single thing about them is “right” or “good” to mirror our utopian idea of ourselves.
Can Green Book just be a good movie? Is First Reformed less relevant because its protagonist is a white male in a mostly white town? Do people love movies like The Hate U Give more because they celebrate the very thing we all need to be caring about? How do we define “good” anymore? We seem to be at a crossroads, caught between an old worldview and a new one, redefining what moviegoing actually means, scrutinizing the very act of deciding which movies to see.
Movies like Martin Scorsese’s The Departed, when glimpsed through the lens of the culture that demands every film instruct society on how we should behave, may not be considered right-minded enough to win Best Picture today. It crackles with brilliant dialogue, it tells a truth, but it stars almost all white men and racial epithets are used throughout, from the very first shot. So many great films of the past, when put through the sausage grinder of today, would fail to meet appropriate criteria. Try watching Scent of a Woman through the lens of the #MeToo movement. Just try. Every so often in American film history you’ll find a movie that accidentally reflects today’s idea of what art should say, but it’s almost like playing the lottery. Good luck.
And it isn’t as though the critics have become immune to the utopian ideal. They’re right there too. They have to be if they want to avoid social media crucifixion. They know that the movie they choose has to withstand scrutiny of the hive mind that is poised to rip them apart and call them out. That extreme has understandably risen out of the other extreme: when movies only told stories about white people for white people. But has the pendulum swung so far that any movie about white people looks somewhat suspicious?
Black Panther now sits at the apex of this peaking awareness. A hybrid somewhere between a great piece of cinema and superlative prepackaged entertainment. What is so moving about Black Panther isn’t that it dwells in the familiar realm of Marvel franchise but rather that it charts its own course to celebrate African culture. Wakanda offers up what is worth celebrating but rarely is: black power, black grace, black achievement, black history, the long-ago stolen past. The film argues that Wakanda cannot stay where it is, but it must spread out to places where it’s most needed. Black Panther the film makes this wish come true. It spreads Wakanda in the places it’s most needed and that is one of the things that makes this an important film.
This year’s Oscar race may come down to Black Panther (the highest grossing film of the year) and Roma (whose box-office haul is not a primary concern). We can see why Black Panther represents much more than the money it has made. But let’s not forget that films once defined as pure cinema are now thriving in one of the last terrains that it can actually find roots: Netflix. The choice between two movies so different may be rightly regarded as a battle for the soul of the Academy. Netflix offers film artists a way out of having to measure their success by the profit they can churn. The tiresome default argument against such films seems to be that people would rather stay home and watch Netflix than go out and sit in the movie theater. But unless you own stock in a studio or a theater chain, why should that matter to you? (Believe it or not, people once went to movies and had not the slightest clue what those movies earned on opening weekend.)
But to many in the industry who are so focused on the bottom line, Netflix represents a bigger threat than tentpole franchise movies ever will: it threatens to alter the way people watch movies. (As if that hadn’t already happened 50 years ago, with TV, VHS, DVD, Blu-rays, and now 4K-Ultra. How many devoted movie-lovers alive today would never have seen Citizen Kane or Psycho or Lawrence of Arabia if they couldn’t watch movies at home?)
To save the Oscars, the Academy and the industry are being told to embrace the new normal, or as Lynda Obst calls it, the new abnormal. Remakes are okay. Franchises are good for Hollywood. International box office numbers blow so many minds and pad so many pockets and entertain so many worldwide, how is anyone to argue?
Somewhere between the elite insular world of critics and the sell-out capitalist-driven new model of Hollywood, a path must remain for actual pure cinema to forge and explore. It has to. The art of the thing still has to matter.
I’ll never stop believing that two categories for Best Picture isn’t a good idea. The reason being if the Academy decides that the only criteria for Best Picture is whether it is popular or not, knowing how popular taste is so fleeting, Oscars’ own history risks becoming even more irrelevant.
My feeling, pure and simple, is that if Roma doesn’t win BP, the Oscars are just confirming their irrelevance. It is far and away the best movie likely to get a nomination.
Much what u been saying I say “told you so.” When I.first explained how.Broadway appeal became.Hollywood alignment between.pop culture and Oscars . truth be told Weinstein.legacy will be judged as trashing true value of Oscars ampas represent other than being criminal fact is u own admission Weinstein was product of politically motivated obscure independent films to prominence.
In a democracy it OK but.on principle.of true essence Oscar across it pre- modern industry no unacceptable it time Oscar start to realign themselves with movie going public before Weinstein Oscar got it right more than not. But no.coincidence since second half of 90’s divorce between public desires Oscars thoughts was like the grand canyon ever getting wider.
Remakes are OK but as awards contenders? No way even if ” star is born” is more popular with public is this true reflection of Oscars own philosophical artistic future? Resounding no. Awarding this film is a retrogadr step that betray true value history worth of ampas.
Lead to.black panther if not that it should be Mary Poppins returnss
The populist (and unorthodox) box-office winners require hearing about them through word of mouth. I’ve literally never heard “Black Panther” uttered out loud (last year’s Oscar ceremony is the only time I can recall). It was different with films like Dances with Wolves, Gladiator, LOTR and especially Titanic. Even Avatar was talked about all over the place, albeit for more technical reasons. The other populist winners mentioned in this thread struck a chord with pop culture, and I don’t quite get that sense with Black Panther. It is a confected push which doesn’t convince as a contender. At all. I worry for Black Panther if it was pushed into a disreputable position in which it frankly didn’t belong. If Get Out couldn’t do it, Black Panther most certainly has no hope.
Exactly, 8ts that the pictureats mostt woke wns best picture
“If Black Panther wins (& I’m frankly surprised pundits are backing that idea), I’m not convinced it would withstand ridicule. remember how close Avatar came to winning? how awkward it felt winning the Drama Globe? how glorious & inspired it felt when Hurt Locker won the Oscar instead – & how irrelevant Avatar is to the zeitgeist just 9 short years later?”
This.
But Black Panther isn’t Avatar. It’s bigger than Avatar.
It is? Interesting…
Roma also represents diversity and inclusion. Very much so in the Trump era. It also represents innovative & emotionally captivating filmmaking.
All this hype around Black panther has likely secured its nomination, and that’s already a victory – a big one. The first superhero film to crack Best Picture.
If Roma wins, people will say “What’s that?!” They’ll see it on netflix, that it’s by “the guy who made Gravity”. They’ll watch it, they’ll love it (or “get” why it won) & the Oscars will serve a purpose.
If Black Panther wins (& I’m frankly surprised pundits are backing that idea), I’m not convinced it would withstand ridicule. remember how close Avatar came to winning? how awkward it felt winning the Drama Globe? how glorious & inspired it felt when Hurt Locker won the Oscar instead – & how irrelevant Avatar is to the zeitgeist just 9 short years later?
There are popular winners, like Titanic, LOTR, even Dances with Wolves, which still resonate (totally subjective, I know) and make sense as winners (even if they did something unforgiveable like beat Goodfellas), & then there’s Around the World in 80 Days, or The Greatest Show on Earth. Just because the masses are convinced right now, doesn’t mean something will stand the test of time.
Obv the Oscars are hit & miss, & reflects the zeitgeist of the moment (Love Story, Ghost, or, ahem, ASIB, anyone?) but shouldn’t they at least try to choose winners with some legs?
IMPO, the Oscars should stick to their guns and play to their audience. Maybe the masses aren’t watching because they just don’t care and that’s okay. If the Oscars lose ALL credibility pandering to the masses, they really do serve no purpose.
(NOTE: I’m NOT saying Black Panther is a bad or unworthy film, but I am saying that the narrative that voting for Black Panther is imperative to “save” the Oscars’ credibility is shortsighted, counter-productive & probably a smart & deliberate PR campaign that will succeed in making it the first superhero BP contender. 🙂
Have you seen this? Unbelievable, I find. https://www.indiewire.com/2018/12/superhero-movies-oscars-black-panther-spider-verse-1202027100/
I understand that Indiewire and Sasha are pushing for diversity, but that’s not the right way. I wont expand here as I’ve already posted my thoughts at the bottom of the aforementioned article.
Just to mention this as it’s a pet peeve of mine that I see mentioned in way too many places: why is foreign box office branded as a major threatning villain in the American film discussion these days? I get the idea that certain films that were bad and bombed in the US still made money outside the US. But describing foreign box office as something inherently horrible and only able to raise bad movies to the discussion as they hurt all quality filmmaking, you’re basically saying:
1) Americans only see good movies because if it was just American box office, there would be no problem
2) Non-Americans have HORRIBLE taste, and they are less sophisticated than US viewers as they only see garbage
3) That American studios are more focused on non-American markets and they don’t care at all about the American audience
And these three are frankly utter lies.
All three of those things are lies. Those are three absurd statements.
Sasha didn’t write them. Sasha never even remotely suggested them.
Due respect, Ferdinand, but none of those 3 things are implied in Sasha’s mention of foreign box office. It’s an inconvincing stretch to extrapolate those thoughts from anything in this piece.
Sasha adores foreign language films and when in Cannes she always wrote extensively and eloquently about the European mindset that gives serious movielovers such mature and sophisticated works of film art — and she had the same feelings of respect and admiration toward international cinema around the world.
You know that to be true, right?
Please dont try to put your words in the mouth of anyone who is simply stating the obvious fact: that Hollywood has learned how to make certain types of movies that sell well around the world.
Please dont create 3 outlandish sentences and then try to suggest that this is what what Sasha is saying.
Please don’t write 3 crude sentences and then accuse someone else of lying when the lies are your own words.
I apologize for my idiotic phrasing once again (I really should think about that before I post, I find myself apologizing for bad phrasing constantly) and I meant it as a general remark, not in relation to Sasha’s point. I understand that Sasha mentions this to focus on foreign box office in a way that she links with it producing content that isn’t as strongly for American audiences only. But this in my opinion links to a larger attitude in the American film discussion where foreign box office is villanized and the industry is considered to be focusing on it to an absurd extent that makes a lot of films look ridiculous (for example making a really bad action movie have scenes set in China, so that Chinese audiences would be more interested as a few films have done, which is apparently horrible even though Hollywood has been forcing their actors on non-American stories for decades). Only the bad films and how they make money are discussed while for example First Man making back its money with the help of foreign box office isn’t mentioned. And this villainization in my opinion is logically equivalent to making those three claims.
But, Sasha is not making those claims. Sasha is one of the few people writing about things like the Oscars that I know won’t make claims as idiotic as that, and that is one of the reasons why I love this site so much. One particular part (“That’s because Big Hollywood isn’t the Hollywood of yore anymore, no longer the crucible of American cinema. Now it always has an eye on international box office. Have you noticed that the films that do really well in a given year are remakes, or part of a franchise, or come from the cloth of something that was already made before?”) made me think of it, so I mentioned it as a sidenote.
I also apologize to Sasha for writing something that, without particularly meaning it or not, insinuates that she could have meant something like that
No no, I apologize.
I apologize for spotting a bit of loosely worded wording that I know was innocently written and then hammering it as if a monster scrawled it.
You’re one of our very favorite writers, Ferdinand, and one of the most thoughtful friends that AD is lucky to have.
You didn’t mean Sasha was at fault. Nothing in your comment laid any blame on Sasha.
Your point is valid because I’ve seen the attitude that concerns expressed elsewhere.
Truth be told, some of the iffy phrasing in the lines you quote are the result me overemphasizing when I did a light copyedit.
Part of my job is to try to add clarity to what gets posted, but sometimes I screw up and make things sound foggier and fishier.
Brilliant Sasha.
This could be the best article I’ve ever read on AD. Bravo.
I completely agree that rooting for ‘black panther’ to win an Oscar do best picture is a reversal of the actual issue. That studios have dictated what popular and spectacle is to a spot so far from the actual creativity of cinema that a decent movie (black panther) coming out of the soap machine system seems to be the only bridge that connects the two realms. I call it ‘bull….’. Any industry awards should be to foster industry and creativity itself; and not be worried with major players, larger audiences and eyeballs for advertisement. I am not against big, vfx, popular movies; Avatar and Gravity being prime examples; but I’m against rewarding a decent smelling soap bar. If they wanna talk about racism in america you have ‘blackklansmann’ and ‘beale street’, if you wanna go big and creative you have ‘a quiet place’ ‘hereditary’… just lets not be fooled by all the noise.
There is a massive popular entertainment that deserves Best Picture and the name is Mary Poppins, not Black Panther.
I’m ready to defend Black Panther’s strong showing this season because I think people disregard its achievement as a revolutionary genre picture and tend to dismiss its straight-forward approach to sci-fi/fantasy. Unlike the Shape of Water (a fantasy that is all allegory), Black Panther conforms its genre conventions to themes that didn’t seem possible to speak about in a superhero film.
Is that enough to merit awards alongside ‘serious’ films? A lot of people would say no and I get that. (Also it’s hard to root for additional honors be bestowed on a film that’s made $700 million.) The other major film I would compare it to is Hereditary as a genre flick that does something different. But even then, Hereditary is nothing but allegory by the end.
It also exists in a world connected to other films in a way few films have and carries the burden of the Marvel Universe overall — and the Avengers: Infinity War in particular — as an item of quality vs. entertainment. For many Marvel fans, it’s hard to celebrate the achievements of BP because A:IW was so clearly more consequential.
Lately, I’m thinking that either ASIB or Black Panther wins – because – voters will feel pressured to have something “good” AND “popular” to win again.
Sure, plenty of voters will love those films enough to vote them #1 anyway. But I think a lot of other voters will put them 1, 2 or 3 just to allow for a good/popular film to have the limelight again; to prove or make a “point” that they’re not gonna just go for the critics’ indie choice again.
On another somewhat related-note: Voters putting certain films higher on ballots to make a “point” reminds me of the 2013 race when 12 Years a Slave won because a) it was great, but also b) where plenty of voters likely felt the need to make it win whether or not they loved it or even saw it.
The Academy Awards has been slowwwly becoming a bit of a joke in recent years (Republicans hating on it, twitter hating on how the host was, hating on the length, and now the “who even WANTS to host this nightmare” debacle) and, a win for one of those 2 big films should make the public respect them a little bit more again — maybe (unless the public is discerning enough to see what the Academy was trying to do IN rewarding a Black Panther or A Star is Born).
It’s a boring show. That’s the problem. As a show, in terms of pacing, production value, and entertainment, the Oscars actually SUCK.
The best marvel movie for me was avengers: infinity war. It was the most entertaining of the marvel bunch this year.
Off-topic: Without commenting on Mary Poppins Returns, since I haven’t seen it, how on earth is Black Panther convincingly ahead of First Man at GoldDerby in the Original Score category? It’s one of the best scores in recent years. I’m so angry.
I agree First Man’s score is its best shot at an Oscar surprisingly.
Two of the best scores of the year haven’t even been mentioned anywhere though and those are Sisters Brothers and Ballad Of Buster Scruggs. It was just a weak year for film music overall.
any score that uses a theremin is genius in my book. haven’t heard that in a score since, what…Mars Attacks?
That this comparison would be made at all is unacceptable.
First Man’s score
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Black Panther’s score
I remember the 2004 academy awards when lord of the rings the return of the king swept the Oscar with 11 wins. I also remember the 1998 academy awards when titanic swept the oscarc with 11 wins. I believe black panther is not deserving as those two films I just mentioned. Titanic and lord of the rings had an all star ensemble cast of very talented actors and they were passion projects. Two of my favorite directors are still mr. peter Jackson and mr. James Cameron. Ryan coogler is not even a household name in Hollywood. He made a good film for comic book fans, yes but not the overall majority of people. I still think to this day that lord of the rings and titanic and braveheart are the most relevant movies that Have ever won in recent memory because people from my time like serious drama or a sweeping beloved fantasy epic trilogy then marvel comic book fans. And there have been a bunch of movies this year that I have enjoyed over the marvel studios. I will give you many examples: Green book-mission impossible: fallout-first man-the meg-mortal engines-bohemian rhapsody-Jurassic world: fallen kingdom-ready player one-a Star is born-crazy rich Asians
Eh? A film that made over $1 billion worldwide is ‘a good film for comic book fans, yes but not the overall majority of people’. Yeah, ok then. No worries.
“Or perhaps a deeper reason that the Oscars have seemed to become ‘irrelevant’ is that studios selected the audiences out of the process”
That’s 100% true, but has less to do with “popular” films vs indies and more to do with one very, very simple fact that I can’t believe no one talks about more: timing. When did Hollywood decide it would be a great idea to release every single awards-worthy movie within such a narrow window of time, with some of them not even breaking wide until well after the nominations are announced? Why should anyone in the world care about a competition between movies nobody outside of the industry has even gotten to see yet? THAT’s what makes the whole thing feel insular and navel-gazing, not the ratio of indies to blockbusters (which has never actually been as dire as many claim). We squeeze the public out of the process and then complain when the public doesn’t tune in.
There should not be a single Top 10 list, not a single nominations announcement, not a single awards ceremony held until January of the following year. How are we deciding the best films of the year when it’s still November/December? Studios that want their films to be taken seriously should space them out throughout the year, not release them all within four weeks of each other where many of them will inevitably end up buried and forgotten. (ALL IS TRUE, anyone?)
I wish there was some way for the Academy to have control over this. Maybe two BP categories, but instead of “Best Picture” and “Best Popular Film” there’s “Best Picture (Jan-Jun)” and “Best Picture (Jul-Dec).” Yes, that’s silly and no, it would never happen. But I’m open to other ideas to help studios encourage to stop this end-of-year glut that absolutely quashes any enthusiasm the general public might have in the process.
Completely agree with the comment about lists and noms being published and announced in January. TIME announced their top ten in late October
My mom thinks The Greatest Showman is the best movie of 2018 hahaha. That shows the wide disconnect between us movie “analysts” and the hoi polloi.
I think The Greatest Showman is the best movie of 2017. It wouldn’t be my pick for best of 2018; a number of titles have already passed it (though by a small margin).
I watch the Oscars with a lot of my friends and so many years they all say ‘I haven’t even heard of half of these movies…’
So true.
But what will help Black Panther to clinch that Best Picture win? As of the moment, it’s dead in all major categories (directing, acting, and screenplay). Even if it wins the SAG ensemble and the PGA, Black Panther still has lots of barricades to topple.
I have only one opinion about Roma at the Oscars. As good as it is I don’t think that anyone in the Academy, in the industry or at home watching would like to see Cuarón getting on stage 5 times.
Five Oscars for him, but he gets on stage 6 times: he would accept the Foreign Language Film award if I’m not mistaken.
I was thinking of these 5: BP, BD, Cinematography, Editing and Foreign Language Film. I don’t see Roma winning best screenplay, I would question even the nomination for screenplay.
Sure, it’s not a likely screenplay winner (even though it’s been hitting screenplay categories surprisingly consistently). But technically he could accept 6.
Will some of those 5 awards be given out during commercial breaks?
you broke my heart. I will not be there watching if they don’t give out Best Whatever live.
You completely misunderstood what I wrote. But instead of clarifying, you just decided to be a pig about it all. Typical.
Honestly, I don’t know what you are reading into my reply; I was only joking about me not watching the Oscars. I was just saying that you reminded me that they are giving out awards during commercial breaks and I said I will not watch the Oscars if they don’t give every single one live.
sorry then I misread also
The problem is only the film is listed in each category (except BD?) so many voters won’t know they are voting for him so many times.
I agree. Roma winning Best Foreign Language, Best Director AND Best Picture seems like a little too much for 1 film considering the strong competition this year. I just don’t see voters rewarding Roma 3 of its biggest prizes especially in a year when AMPAS endeavoured to make the oscars more popular and engaging to general audiences. Let’s be honest despite how many critics call Roma a masterpiece, I don’t think general audiences would sit down to watch a b/w 2hr foreign language film with no big name actors.
I have nothing personally against Roma, I’m just saying in speaking to those outside of film nerds/award pundit circles that Roma is not a very enticing film….I think ASIB is the ideal compromise.
If the 7K voter were like the movie critics then Roma is the obvious winner , unfortunately they are not and many have much lower /populist tastes in movies , especially the blue collar workers in the Guilds
There are no blue collar Academy members, dimwit.
Not according to Tom O’Neil at GD who is often talking about the ”Blue Collar” voters or ”steak eaters” in the Guilds”.. and I actually knew a member who was a carpenter working on stage sets
Steak is not an inexpensive meat. The point isn’t that they’re poor, the point is that they aren’t going to be eating, like, arugula.
If the race were between the populist Black Panther and the Art-house Roma then ASIB is the obvious compromise choice , merely another reason why I think it will win BP
The Artist won in 2012 and there was an increase in Oscar ratings despitr it being a small b/w silent film made by a French starring two unknown (at the time) French actors. So that kinda invalidates the argument that if Roma is gonna win then it’s surely gonna be another low rated Oscar telecast.
Black Panther in as much as I believe that it’s ine of the best MCU films behind the first two Captain America films, deserves only 3 Oscar nods (Costume Design, Make Up and Original Score). Sound nods are a stretch.
And definitely not Visual Effects.
Please don’t mention it. Why it made the shortlist and not Annihilation is appalling! If it makes the bake-off then it would be laughable, what reel are they gonna present.
The Artist won cos it was about struggling actors ; if the movie was about a painter do you think it would have won ?
Who knows? But La La Land lost and it is about struggling actress and Los Angeles.
I figured that ASIB would win BP was because it felt like a happy medium between art house critical darling and box office hit embraced by the general public. It’s hard to know what exactly these critics awards mean. Willem Dafaoe and Laurie Metcalf were overwhelming praised only to get completely ignored by the industry awards. I think Roma has such strong support, that it will benefit from the preferential ballot at the Oscars. Not sure if Black Panther will benefit or not from the preferential ballot.
Metcalf lost to a woman in a Tonya Harding comedy, it’s not like some obscure indie film took that statue
I’m struggling to find the relevance of any of the pictures coming out these days. And I’m talking as someone who loves movies. Even movies like Black Panther, which supposedly mirror the times, are made by money-making machines with zero understanding of the intricacies of human bahavior. They just capitalize on movements. Will anyone remember The Artist, Shape of Water in 20-30 years time? I won’t. Somebody mentioned they don’t make movies like Titanic and Dances with Wolves anymore. Remember those two were passion projects, some lucky accidents, which got financed because the director had made a truckload of money with the Terminator films and Aliens and the other one was made by one the hottest stars at the time. What do we see from the the chart featured in the post? I don’t see any “hybrid movies” from 2012 onwards. I see movies made for kids because the studios have understood they’re the only ones who pay the admission ticket to the movie theatre in the era of digital dowloads and piratebay.
What makes movie relevant and stand the test of time at the same time? Urgency. How many of the movies you’ve seen the last ten years can boast they were born out of a desperate need to be made, out of the mind of one creative artist, who worked as if they gambled everything? Not many. Will anyone remember Melancholia 20-30 years from now? I will. And I know the film will stand another type of scrutiny then and find a new audience.
There are interesting themes running in the writing above but they still circle the symptoms, not the real problem. Race, gender, are still symptoms, and no matter if you’re black, white, a guy or a girl, films in cinemas these days they don’t talk about you and your problems, no matter how much they drum this into your ears
Actually I can make cases for The Artist and The Shape of Water, I’m pretty sure same as with First Man that these two films will be remembered in 20-30 years time. The fact is nobody makes movies like The Artist and TSoW these days.
Let’s start with The Artist: This might be our generations’ closest thing to grasp the history of cinema. An important link for the future generations to appreciate the films during Hollywood’s Golden Age when everything movies can offer are saturated by CGI, green screens and over abundance of technology. When that generation looks back, The Artist would be that film, made in distant past, a portal to the lost era built by tradition and culture and unfortunately might no longer survive because of technology.
As for TSoW: In as much as a passion project as Titanic and Dances with Wolves. Actually it’s also a personal one which makes it even more important than the two mentioned films. And that is evident in every frame of TSoW. It’s from a vision of a filmmaker who also never forgets to look back into the past to create something personal for the present and the future, made during the time where in America and the world are so full of itself politically. Trump is nothing but a fad, he shall pass, same with the power-hungry leaders the world has right now but the the underlying themes of their power will remain and in time where films about personal stories and creativity is becoming an endangered species, there will always be that small outsider who will break the mold even if its just a figment of the imagination. Titanic opened doors to technology that we are enjoying today. But let us not forget that because of that, it becoming harder and harder for filmmakers to make stories as personal as TSoW today. Especially if the future is the big, noisy, virtual reality.
I disagree in both cases but at least with The Shape of Water is down to personal taste. In the case of the Artist, if anyone wants a window into the Golden Age of Hollywood one need look no further than the films made back then. Movies like Murnau’s Sunrise or Metropolis have a far more creative energy than The Artist has, especially because they move into the the realm of dreams, which by the way, is what I think differentiates film from any other art. The Artist is just a cheap shot, a little Mac burger, I have no idea for whom it was made.
As for the Shape of Water not every passion project is worthy of your time. I, personally, am not interested in Guillermo del Toro’s universe. I was when I was 12. For something in the same vein I find what Miyazaki does far more interesting. Spirited Away is a much better film than Pan’s Labyrinth. In my opinion. And this is not even my universe. But then again, its down to personal taste and one must always be unapologetic about what they like.
I don’t think Black Panther will be a high #1, #2 and #3 place vote-getter. It will have it’s passionate voters, but if it’s not someone’s #1 it’s probably not in their top 5 :/
One thing I’ve noticed is ever since 2004, when Lord of the Rings: Return of the King was nominated for 11 Oscars and won all 11 including Best Pic, the film that has the most nominations is less likely to win the big prize. In almost all the years before the epic LOTR night, the film with the most nominations became the film with the most wins including Best Pic. The only years this didn’t happen was in 2002 and 1992.
2003 – Chicago – 13 noms – 6 wins
*2002 – LOTR:FOTR – 13 noms – 4 wins
2001 – Gladiator – 12 noms – 5 wins
2000 – American Beauty – 8 noms – 5 wins
1999 – Shakespeare in Love – 13 noms – 7 wins
1998 – Titanic – 14 noms – 11 wins
1997 – English Patient – 12 noms – 9 wins
1996 – Braveheart – 10 noms – 5 wins
1995 – Forrest Gump – 13 noms – 6 wins
1994 – Schindler’s List – 12 noms – 7 wins
1993 – Unforgiven – 9 noms – 4 wins
*1992 – Bugsy – 10 noms
1991 – Dances With Wolves – 12 noms – 7 wins
After the LOTR sweep, things changed for some reason. The film that garnered the most noms was still most likely to win the most awards, but the odds of it winning Best Pic dropped from a 6/7 to a 1/3 chance. Take a look.
2005 – The Aviator – 11 noms – 5 wins
2006 – Brokeback Mountain – 8 noms – 3 wins
2007 – Dreamgirls – 8 noms – Departed won more statues including BP
*2008 – No Country For Old Men – 8 noms – 4 wins
2009 – Benjamin Button – 13 noms – Slumdog Millionaire won more statues including BP
*2010 – The Hurt Locker – 9 noms – 6 wins
*2011 – The King’s Speech – 12 noms – 4 wins
2012 – Hugo – 11 noms – 5 wins
2013 – Lincoln – 12 noms – Life Of Pi won most statues but neither won BP
2014 – Gravity – 10 noms – 7 wins
*2015 – Birdman – 9 noms – 4 wins
2016 – The Revenant – 12 noms – Mad Max won most statues but neither won BP
2017 – La La Land – 14 noms – 6 wins
*2018 – The Shape of Water – 13 noms – 4 wins
When you compare the two eras, I can’t help but feeling grateful to be participating in Oscar watching in the latter one because of the competition and less predictability it has provided. I couldn’t imagine watching one film win every single award for 10 years straight. But I suppose it would’ve made our prediction games a lot easier. And even though it seems like a no brainer that the film with the most nominations would be either the number one or number two film most likely to win Best Pic (only Dreamgirls and Lincoln were an exception to this), it’s reassuring to see it all broken down.
So this poses the question then…if The Favourite or Black Panther ends up with the most noms, does that mean that film is number one or two? According to the odds it would. It makes me even wonder why we were thinking it could be Get Out or Lady Bird or Dunkirk to begin with.
I’m thinking The Favourite and A Star is Born will be the leaders with 11 each. Black Panther probably gets 6-9 nominations
We will see if Sam Elliott is nominated for a SAG tomorrow, but yeah, as it sits I think ASIB easily has Pic, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplay, Song and a Sound. With strong possibilities for Supporting Actor, Cinematography and the second sound. So that’s 11.
The Favourite could get as many but they aren’t as sure things. Pic, Actress, Screenplay, Costume, Production Design seem likely. While Director, two Supporting Actresses, Editing, Cinematography and Score could happen. So yeah: that’s 11 as well.
It seems more likely Star will get the most noms thanks to the sound categories.
If it up to me, I’d wish for Black Panther to reap 13 nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. I really liked Black Panther, though as for as winning, I’d be happy for it (but I think Roma, Favourite, ASIB, and Beale Street are good as well).
Not to mention that three tof he five instances that the Best Picture winner led the nominations did so with another film (2008: No Country for Old Men/There Will Be Blood; 2010: Avatar/The Hurt Locker; 2015: Birdman/The Grand Budapest Hotel).
The one instance where two films lead the nominations but neither one won Best Picture was in 2014. American Hustle and Gravity led that year with 2014, but both lost to 12 Years a Slave which came in third place with nine nominations. The last time two films that were co-leaders in the nominations but neither film won Best Picture was in 1981 when The Elelphant Man and Raging Bull led the ceremony with eight nominations apiece (Ordinary People won that year).
Exactly, and the sweeps continued into the 80’s but I just had to stop somewhere. Driving Miss Daisy, Rain Man, The Last Emporer, Platoon, Out Of Africa, Amadeus, Terms of Endearment and Gandhi all led the noms and then won the most including Pic. Of course Reds has the most noms the year it came out with 12 and it didn’t win, likewise Bugsy had 10 and Heaven Can Wait had 9 and neither won as well. You think the Academy just hates Warren Beatty?
Good stat to keep in mind. 🙂
Actually it also happened in 1978. Turning Point and Julia led with 11, but Annie Hall with seven nominations (behind Star Wars 10 nominations no less) won. I’m sure there are a few more instances but it is quite rare for a film to co-lead nominations to miss a BP win I think.
Spot on Sasha. I never wanted a “popular film” category but it wasn’t because I wanted those popular films to be considered for the main award. No, I can care less if they aren’t nominated. But if it’s have that category or water down the prestige of the Oscars until it’s the People’s Choice Awards or even worse, the MTV Movie Awards, then by god we need that category.
With The Favourite and A Star Is Born and First Reformed racking up so much attention, are we really worried about the state of white film-making? People are pushing a blockbuster about black people over a small film about Mexican people because they want a movie rewarded that people will tune in to see rewarded a la Return of the King. I don’t think we can even pretend that white people are endangered at the box office or at awards shows. We’ve still had ONE woman of color win a Best Actress Oscar. I don’t think we’re in a place where we need to worry about the pendulum of liberalism having over-corrected. We’re nowhere near equal racial representation let alone some imagined white backlash. This site seems to be having a massive panic attack all because First Man isn’t as beloved as its authors hoped it would be.
“We’ve still had ONE woman of color win a Best Actress Oscar. I don’t think we’re in a place where we need to worry about the pendulum of liberalism having over-corrected.”
That paragraph in Sasha’s piece had nothing to do with Oscars or any other awards.
It’s specifically about a specific type of loud influential voices in the online film world who run a litmus test on films to determine if they’re too white or not woke enough to be worthy of attention.
The Favourite has great and well-deserved LGBT cred.
First Reformed has environmental consciousness cred.
ASIB has memorable and important black and transgender characters.
The examples you have chosen to disprove Sasha’s observation that films need to satisfy diversity and movement watchdogs? All your examples are movies that do satisfy those watchdogs.
And this piece does not argue that greater awareness is wrong. Anyone who knows Sasha and knows this site knows that we champion that awareness more than almost any other movie site.
The point being made is that some movies don’t tick those awareness boxes and that should be ok if the movie is great enough for other reasons.
“The Favourite has great and well-deserved LGBT cred.” You mean lesbian or bisexual cred. It has nothing to do with transgender people or gay men. I hate the term “LGBT.”
Just because you personally hate the term LGBT doesn’t mean other people shouldn’t use it or the reality it is a commonly used term.
LGBT exists as a term and as a coalition because those of us in each subset try to support one another, appreciate one another’s similar joys and struggles, and can recognize in our LGBT allies a commonality in experience that gives us more strength as a group than we have as individuals or segregated groups
Interesting that you hate that so much that you want to slice us up into isolated factions. Interesting that you hate that we have a mutually supportive alliance.
(And by interesting, I mean boring.)
Please tell us more stuff that you hate.
(And by that, I mean please don’t.)
The problem with the Oscars is that they’re beholden to viewer counts. I wonder what the awards rewarded would be like if the reliance on how many people tune is was taken out of the equation. Would Black Panther still be in the discussion?
I think a more fitting question would be: if Black Panther was a good movie but didn’t make money, instead of a so-so movie that made money, would it still be in the discussion?
Also, does the average Academy vote care about ratings?
I think so, just like Wonder Woman and Logan was in the discussion.
Nope. Why would they? They have no horse in the race.
I guess at the end what this all comes down to is the battle between cinema as art (Roma) vs. cinema as populist entertainment (BP, ASIB).
Roma is a work of art. Black Panther and A Star is Born are not. That doesn’t lessen the value of the last two movies. It’s just more and more difficult to find a movie that combines the two. I’m not trying to sound elitist. We can enjoy both. It’s just that a film like Roma truly elevates the craft, while a film like BP is all about making money. The inclusiveness of it WAS the marketing tag line.
Black Panther is NOT a very good movie. It’s an OK movie. A Star is Born is NOT a very good movie. It’s an OK movie. But Roma is a very good movie, regardless of how it’s distributed or how much money it makes or what language it is. I’m sure it’s layers will be revealed with further viewings.
I see more artistry in ASIB than in Roma…Roma is an overrated movie
hahahahaha ASIB is a disaster
It started off very promising. I loved the first half. Then it’s like the filmmakers stopped caring and just wanted to rush to the ending.
No Roma is art , but above the heads of many voters , who will be bored by it ..if the voters were all like critics then it’s the obvious winner
Black Panther is a good but not great film. A Star is Born is a great film.
ASIB is a terrible film.
For those who are interested, the AACTA Awards (Australian film awards) announced the international category today:
AACTA INTERNATIONAL AWARD FOR BEST FILM
A STAR IS BORN
BLACKKKLANSMAN
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
ROMA
VICE
AACTA INTERNATIONAL AWARD FOR BEST DIRECTION
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper
BLACKKKLANSMAN Spike Lee
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Lanthimos
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
SWEET COUNTRY Warwick Thornton
AACTA INTERNATIONAL AWARD FOR BEST SCREENPLAY
A QUIET PLACE John Krasinski, Scott Beck, Bryan Woods
BLACKKKLANSMAN Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Anthony McCarten
THE FAVOURITE Tony McNamara, Deborah Davis
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
AACTA INTERNATIONAL AWARD FOR BEST LEAD ACTOR
Christian Bale VICE
Bradley Cooper A STAR IS BORN
Hugh Jackman THE FRONT RUNNER
Rami Malek BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Viggo Mortensen GREEN BOOK
AACTA INTERNATIONAL AWARD FOR BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Glenn Close THE WIFE
Olivia Colman THE FAVOURITE
Toni Collette HEREDITARY
Lady Gaga A STAR IS BORN
Nicole Kidman DESTROYER
AACTA INTERNATIONAL AWARD FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali GREEN BOOK
Timothée Chalamet BEAUTIFUL BOY
Joel Edgerton BOY ERASED
Sam Elliott A STAR IS BORN
Sam Rockwell VICE
AACTA INTERNATIONAL AWARD FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams VICE
Emily Blunt A QUIET PLACE
Claire Foy FIRST MAN
Nicole Kidman BOY ERASED
Margot Robbie MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
FWIW – ever since they started giving out these awards, the winner has gone on to be nominated for Best Picture (not hard). Not much of a precursor at all, but worthwhile shouting out.
https://www.aacta.org/aacta-awards/news/nominees-announced-for-the-8th-aacta-international-awards/
This prize has a very big correlation with Oscar winners and nominees. All the members of the AACTA are members of The Academy (near 200). These nominations tell a lot. I think BR is being nominated for Best Picture and maybe Amy Adams is winning Supporting Actress considering that Beale Street and King were completly ignored.
I’d love to agree with you there, especially given the recent influx of AACTA voters into the Academy (Warwick Thornton a recent addition, which is nice to see), but I’m not sure that’s the case. I think Bohemian Rhapsody will miss a Best Picture nomination, but Malek will get a Best Actor nomination for sure.
Glancing over past noms. They do seem to include many of the eventual Oscar nominees, but I notice Moonlight wasn’t even nominated the year it came out. Looks like they just don’t like Barry Jenkins I guess.
Not entirely – Moonlight fell into a bit of a black hole. It was released in January in Australia – just like If Beale Street Could Talk -, and in turn (unlike Green Book, which was screened for them) wasn’t screened for the panel to vote on. I imagine that if they had the opportunity to see it and vote for it, they would have done so.
Also – Sasha/Ryan – any chance a post being made about this? Might be an interesting discussion point.
Toni Colette had to be here as she’s an Aussie, but still glad at every mention of that phenomenal performance
I mean, that’s the only reason that Nicole Kidman is there twice, Hugh Jackman is there, and Margot Robbie and Joel Edgerton are in Supporting.
Toni Colette? Taste
Being Australian helps.
If it’s perceived that Best Picture was grooved so BP could win in order to drive ratings, then the backlash will be beyond enormous and will actually make the Oscars less relevant than ever. I find it very difficult to believe the majority of the voting bloc truly feels it’s the Best film of the year.
The Oscars doesn’t need to be relevant. It needs to be respectable. But the Academy can’t distinguish between the two.
And grooving things for Black Panther to goose tv ratings is not respectable, and frankly is incredibly insulting to Ryan Coogler.
The problem with the Academy is that movies like Braveheart, Gladiator, Saving Private Ryan and Titanic are not made anymore.
I know that there are millions of people that would go to the movies and pay to see such films and they would meet the criteria of an “Oscar” movie and yet still be immensely popular with the masses.
I haven’t seen such a movie in a long long time.
But if you are telling me that Black Panther is a better movie than Roma or even The Dark Knight or Inception (for example), I couldn’t disagree more.
I even enjoyed Mission: Impossible – Fallout way more than Black Panther.
Just my two cents.
This is the best comment of this tread. Perfect comment. Films like “Titanic”, “Gladiator” Braveheart’, I would add “Dances with Wolves” and “The English Patient” are not made anymore. The studios think this is old fashioned film. I think this is perfection. I watched Titanic 4 times in the movie teather. But studios now think this kind of film is old fashioned. They only do the 2 extremes mostly: or super heroes films or “super indies” films. I would say masterpieces like “Dunkirk”, “The Shape of Water” and “La La Land” are miraculous, considering the scenario we have today,
That kind of old-fashioned filmmaking has moved to HBO and Netflix
Yes, yes, YES to all of this.
I enjoyed Mission: Impossible – Fallout more than a lot of the “top ten”
The problem with the Academy is that movies like All About Eve, Casablanca, The Big Sleep, The Wizard of Oz and Sunset Boulevard are not made anymore.
Go away with your Bravehearts, Titanics and Gladiators. Those bloated phony epics were hot trash. The 1990s are famously one of the WORST decades in motion picture history.
At least films today like Black Panther are telling stories that literally could not have rendered even 20 years ago — with a cast you never would have seen in such a film of that budget.
OK. And all of these I’ve seen on Blu-Ray. And if movies like these were made today, I’d probably watch them on Netflix.
Don’t get me wrong – those are great films – but if you are asking to get people to pay to see Oscar movies in the movie theater, I am not sure if those would fit the bill. Maybe Casablanca – maybe. And Wizard of Oz.
BTW I went to see Roma in iPIC and sadly I was the only one in the movie theater. Hardly, anyone knows about this movie outside of film facionado circles.
It is what it is. But everybody knows Titanic, Gladiator and Dances with Wolves.
Just saying. And Black Panther – overrated. Decent – B+ but that’s it.
I agree completely.
Roma might be the best movie of the year but you can bet if it leads the nominations and is predicted to be the winner that the number of viewers is gonna be possibly the lowest in history.
The majority of the general public is not going to watch a non-English speaking movie let alone watch it win a bunch of awards. Sucks but it’s true.
I’m conflicted. I think a black and white, non-english speaking movie would traditionally be a hard sell to the general public… BUT it will be streaming on Netflix very soon. That may be the future. People streaming award contenders from home. In that sense, it will be one of the most accessible films to compete.
Now, will people watch it?
maybe Netflix should dub it with Beyonce as Aparicio’s English voice…people will watch THAT…maybe…
It’s not going to lead the nominations. At most it will get 9
My point remains the same. Nine noms. Five noms. 14 noms. Doesn’t matter. If that is the movie that everyone says is the one to beat, viewership is gonna be bad. But thanks!
Then just turn it into the People’s Choice awards and say goodbye to anything resembling intelligent movies ever again
Yup!
I get your point – but again this is what we have. If the Black Panther wins over Roma, wouldn’t you be upset – it’s not even the best Marvel movie and not even close to the best Super Hero movie.
The studios dropped the ball this year. And that is in a way a direct result of The Revenant losing couple of years ago. That movie was supposed to be the test for future upcoming historical epic movies – if it had won Best Picture, perhaps we might have seen more movies like it. But when it lost, it kinda validated the notion that smaller, more indipendent films would be rewarded more and therefore, the big historical sweeping epics are not being funded anymore.
And that’s sad. Or perhaps we’ve ran out of history to show. I dunno…
I agree with the above but that’s not Cuaron’s fault. It’s the American Studios’s fault that they can’t find the next Steven Spielberg, David Lean or Ridley Scott and come up with a great, sweeping historical epic that can give everyone the sense of the “Oscar” movie that wins 7 Oscars.
I am not sure what the issue is. The Revenant came close but even that didn’t quite fit into the sweeping epic although it did have the look and the vista.
Anyway. Unfortunately, we are living in different times now. But I do miss those movies…
The biggest failure of AMPAS is not live streaming the Oscars on every possible social platform. With ads. Idiotic to not do this.
Related to this, do we know yet whether the Academy will livestream the craft announcments made during the commercial breaks online?
I’m not quite sure how that would work. Would they just turn on the stream during commercial breaks and turn it off afterwards? It’s also problematic because advertisers might pay less if they know the Academy offers alternative programming during commercial breaks.
I don’t see them doing that for this reason. The people who care will most likely learn who won the awards on twitter then have it “revealed” to them again later in the broadcast. How fun…
It seems like that would be anti to their beloved network advertising revenue. I know the Tony’s do this (not a Tony watcher) and possibly they put those awards online after the show? I think I read this but not completely sure.
Completely agree. The fact that anyone outside websites like this physically sits themselves down on a Sunday night to watch a four hour award show, regardless of what will/won’t win best picture, is still mind-boggling to me. Half the time *I* don’t even want to do it just because it’s so annoying to arrange and because I spent five years without a TV (because, laptop) … and that’s coming from a person who, like many on here, dedicate a wildly inordinate amount of my personal time year-long to following the Oscars.
The problem is that advertisers feel like that dilutes the audience. For example, if a local company bought a slot on one of the local affiliates they want people watching that broadcast and not a national (global?) stream. Similarly the local affiliates also want the ratings bump for their local newscast that night.
I work in advertising. No one thinks that. No one is interested in advertising in traditional media.
Yep! The agreement they have with ABC (or NBC? I can’t recall, sorry) has hampered the move into the digital age for the Oscars. It’s terrible.
Not having twitch or Youtube streaming for it is a big mistake.
Academy Members should vote on what they want and like. Oscars will never be irrelavant. ABC is clearly trying to make a case for a Disney win. Remember that ABC is Disney and Black Panther is Disney. The reasons why the ratings declined has nothing to do with cultural irrelevance, but with Politics. America is at least 40% pro Trump, and nobody wil be watching a telecast show where their president is mocked all the time. Audiences around the world and in America wait all the year for this moment. It is very disrespectful of ABC and its reporters to write such an article like that. That “the only way to save the Oscar is to reward Black Panther”. This is disrespectful for the cast and crew involved in films like “Roma”, “Green Book”, “The Favorite” and even “A Star is Born”. Because of the pressure ABC is putting on the Academy – and because of the lazy and submissive approach of John Bailey -, we will have the first cerimony where some categories are relegated to guetos. So, in the future we could live in a world where we will be not watching Agnes Varda or Sandy Powell winning an Oscar, but will be watching a Kevin Hart type – because according to this kind of thinking, it popularity what counts most. If THIS happens – And I fear to think in a scenario like that – for sure, the Oscars will be really dead and buried. You Sasha, as a voice that I always
have read and respected, because I tought you always fought for what is and was right, should claim for the Academy not to “guetozy” the categories, instead of endorsing an evil piece of writing like the one of the ABC journalist – even if you want to see Black Panther nominated.-
Oscar rating were shrinking long before Trump
That’s not really true. The NBC article linked above does have a chart with ratings. Since the mid80s, ratings were relatively steady around 40 million each year, with a few outliers happening here and there. Until 2014, there even was a short-term increasing trend over 8 years or so. The fast decline did start with 2015, but the only truly abysmal number was 2018. I’m not saying it is BECAUSE of Trump, but it started around the same time Trump became a thing, a relatively new phenomenon.
If they give the Oscar to Black Panther just to help TV ratings they can forget about anyone ever taking them seriously again. I have hardly seen Black Panther top any critic’s top ten list yet they still seem to be cheerleading it, not because they actually think it’s that good but because they think it’s “relevant” (which is just a fancy word for popular). It’s like they’re just jumping on the band wagon so they’ll be liked by the cool kids and it’s kind of pathetic. If they want people to take it seriously they should address it’s actual qualities as a movie instead of saying over and over again that it’s popular like that even matters.
No, I disagree. The narrative of them ‘not being taken seriously’ is purely one that is up to you. Black Panther is a good, solid film. I truly doubt the average voter is sitting there thinking ‘oh, if we reward Black Panther, then more people will watch’ – what do they have to gain from more people watching? Nothing!
That’s IT. If they reward BPthey will never be respected again.
I mean, if it feels like they truly think that’s the best movie that was made that’s fine, but if it’s just some cynical move to be popular… no good.
The thing is, probably even people who like Black Panther or who would never watch a film like Roma would feel that it’s inappropriate to award Black Panther the Best Picture award. It’s really not that different from most other Marvel films, and even Marvel fans don’t think Marvel films are the highest quality cinema around.
But no one hated it either. That’s the thing people are forgetting especially with the preferential ballot. Black Panther isn’t as DIVISIVE. Even ASIB is more divisive.
So basically all it needs is to be nominated. Then the real shitshow begins.
It is kind of divisive in its own way though. The “snob” voters who will never vote for a superhero movie do exist and there will be several who are simply going to think “it’s fine” but not rank it high on their ballots just the same. The “Hidden Figures” effect if you will.
Roma winning best picture would be a tragedy for the Academy..admitting defeat yo Netflix….not gonna happen…
In no wait is that defeat. It is acknowledgment of the future.
Would you stop going to the movies? I won’t…Netflix will never replace that…
Thank you Michael
Marty was a 1953 TV teleplay before Mary was a 1955 Best Picture winner.
No doubt there were sullen gripes that this was The End Of Movies! Cross-pollination catastrophe!
Yet here we fuckin are 65 years later, and the TV screens still haven’t destroyed movie screens.
Well said, Ryan!
From my own standpoint, let it become irrelevant. If it doesn’t meet entertainment standards for annual tv broadcasting, I will continue to track oscar news and read who wins on twitter, like its some critics group announcing winners. The Oscar politics water down the process enough, I really don’t want the Oscars to succumb to feeling like they need to award a Blockbuster as it’s Best Picture this year to remain relevant. I am open (and was open) to hearing about a new Popular film category, but I don’t think awarding Black Panther this year over Roma is something I would like to see. Again, only my opinion.