The critics spent months pleading and begging and whining about the Oscar category for popular films. Right? The Academy then tabled the plan and dangled the invisible threat that if the Oscar race doesn’t start to become relevant — as in, picking popular films — then THAT CATEGORY WILL BE BACK! When the SAG voters then nominated popular films and popular stars the same observers were upset that it was TOO popular. Though it’s worth noting that Spike Lee’s marvelous BlacKkKlansman is not really in the same group as Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, and Black Panther. All in all, in this regard, you could say things flipped today from how they they used to be: when mostly traditional so-called Oscar movies were nominated and a rare popular film or two were thrown in, almost by accident.
Either which way, what people want to know is — why was Roma shut out? Why was If Beale Street Could Talk shut out? Why was Vice shut out in ensemble? That’s a prominent head-scratcher in a day filled with head-scratchers, no? What any big awards show does best is offer up a publicity moment for a contender. That doesn’t mean everything, of course, but it’s important. Here’s why.
Back in 2000, when Marcia Gay Harden was up for Supporting Actress without a SAG nomination for Pollock, the Oscars were held in March. That meant — we’re not deciding in December, but we’re deciding in late January or February. Everything was pushed up when the Academy decided to change their big night from March to February. You wouldn’t think that would have that much of an impact, but those of us who follow the race closely noticed the change. Four weeks is a lot of time to lose when movies are still jostling for position. There wasn’t time for anyone to really think about anything. The cascade of screeners and wall-to-wall precursors began to rain down really fast.
That is probably why every winner in the supporting category since 2000 has had a SAG nomination. But Marcia Gay Harden still won an Oscar without one. Was that because voters had four more weeks to see her on the circuit? Quite possibly. That means it used to be theoretically possible that someone who didn’t receive a nomination, like Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk, could still win. If the performance is strong enough. If it had several more days to gain traction. If enough people feel like some great injustice or oversight has been done. If there isn’t another actress waiting in the wings to swoop it claim that spot. Like, say, the very overdue Amy Adams in Vice.
The big question marks that remain are not who didn’t get in so much as who did and whether they can repeat that support at the Oscars. Or whether those who were left out, namely Regina King and Claire Foy, can be bumped into spots that are not yet carved in stone. These more fluid candidates would be Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place and Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots. I would wager that one will get in but not both. I will continue to predict Regina King to get in, along with other nominations for Beale Street.
The Shape of Water shattered the requisite Best Picture stat of needing a SAG Ensemble nomination last year, although it did have top nominations, like Best Actress. However, with its cast of unknown and first-time actors, Roma was always a long shot in the acting categories. We could also note that a black and white film in a foreign language doesn’t get often nominated. One reason being that judging acting from people acting in another language is hard — harder than you’d think. In fact, one could almost say that the only people really qualified to judge a performance are those who speak the same language because they hear how the lines are being spoken, the nuances and inflections. We don’t ordinarily abide by this rule — none of us do. English speakers feel equipped to judge performances by actors speaking a different language (with the help of subtitles), and people who speak different languages certainly feel qualified to judge American actors (because many millions of them are fluent in English). But acting is hearing as much as it is seeing. There is only so much you can get and so far you can go in terms of assessing a performance.
Whether Alfonso Cuaron can win Best Director for Roma will not depend on the SAG awards. It will depend on the outcome of the Globes and the DGA. The real question with the film is: can it reach thousands and thousands of voters? Will enough voters watch it? Will they get it — the subtext and cultural cues? Some will, for sure. But will enough of them? Will many of them not watch it, and say they did, and then vote for someone else? Will some not watch it, or fully get it, but still recognize what a towering achievement it is and vote for Cuaron anyway? Hard to say.
This might be the moment that A Star Is Born is launched on a proper winning streak. Leading the SAGs, doing well at the Globes, it could just start winning and never stop. The whole “make the Oscars popular again” thing will be served and everyone will be happy, right?
Just remember this if you remember nothing else about past awards seasons: long time readers will recognize this sentiment. It is a paraphrasing of a Bob Dylan lyric. People want to be on the side that’s winning. It is human nature. A few of us oddballs like to be on the side that’s losing or fighting to stay in the game, but most people really want to back a winner. That is the only problem with someone missing out on a nomination. It tends to deflate hope. Each absence will contribute to an incremental diminishment. Seeing this happen can make people either want to fight for someone, or abandon someone.
The SAG nominating committee is a randomly selected group of 2,000 voters drawn from both the SAG and the AFTRA membership. That means they’re not necessarily all actors and since they’re scattered all across the country their tastes tend to reflect a more populist vibe. There are so many other unknown variables that we still need a lot more intel on this race to figure out where this is going. We have a vague idea but nothing solid yet, and today did little to clarify anything. The new members of the Academy are another unknown factor this year. And then we return to the year’s most pesky question: will there will be a push to reward “popular” movies, or else.
Voters will now gather with family and friends in their holiday dens — aglow in firelight, and wine, and weed, and the warmth of the season — and select from the teetering Jenga tower of screeners that have been sent to them.
How any of the films play in this setting will be the key factor in determining what gets nominated. Which families are going to want to watch which movies? We know the popular movies will get watched. We know the films with big stars will get watched. But can critical acclaim alone propel other films towards the DVD/Blu-ray player? Which films will seem to be too much of a bummer to watch? Which ones will warm the cockles of the heart?
These are all the remaining mysteries of this, one of the strangest Oscar races I can ever remember.
Honestly, what is so special/great about Gaga’s performance that merits her nominations? I did not see any so great. She gave a good performance, definitely her best thus far (AHS: awful imo) but it’s only decent when you take into consideration and compare it to other performances by actresses.
Good for her and glad she is getting recognition for it but why snub a more deserving actress? I hope the academy looks past it and “snubs” her – an Amy Adams move (Arrival). Yes, I know it’s all subjective but come on!
And I really enjoyed The Favourite. Was so fascinated by it being based on the real Queen Anne that I spent an entire afternoon reading about her and her relationship with Sarah and Abigail.
Can you ever forgive me? is another good film.
Taste really is subjective. A lot of people (mostly her fans, obviously) rave her performance. For me, it was DECENT but not SPECTACULAR that could warrant a Best Actress nom and win. I still couldn’t wrap my head around the idea that people are actually rooting for her in that performance.
I think she probably deserves the nomination (although there’s A LOT I haven’t seen yet) but not the win.
Yes, especially her fans! (Honestly, had ASIB starred a diff actress they probably wouldn’t have seen it.)
During the last four nights at local theaters I saw Free Solo, Roma (on the silver screen!),The Favourite, Green Room and Vox Lux.
So, this is my current personal top ten of the year (absolutely no relation to who I think will be nominated):
1. First Man
2. The Death Of Stalin
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Free Solo
5. The Favourite
6. Roma
7. BlacKkKlansman
8. Isle of Dogs
9. Won’t You Be My Neighbor
10. Avengers Infinity War
Roma’s little nod to ‘Gravity’ was neat. And for someone like me raised on Hitchcock all of the symbols will take many repeat viewings to sort out.
Free Solo helped answer the question of how adventure documentary/reality film crews go about setting up the cameras, sound equipment, etc. so as not to intrude on the reality and decision making of the participants being filmed. It was fascinating.
And I really like Bohemian Rhapsody. So sue me.
“1. First Man
2. The Death Of Stalin”
Love that! Same here, more or less, except your #10 is probably my #2, ahead of The Death of Stalin. (I’m seeing Roma soon.)
Bit random but is there a possibility that the Top 8 awards are won by 8 different films?
A. Screenplay: BK
O. Screenplay: Favourite
Supp. Actress: Beale St.
Supp. Actor: GB
Lead Actress: ASIB
Lead Actor: Vice
Director: Roma
BP: BP
Last one is a major long shot I know.
And I know Adams is looking good for Supp. Actress.
We had 6 different films for the Top 6 awards back in 2012.
Argo, LoP, Lincoln, SLP, DU & LM.
So, Netflix released Roma and I just saw it. ***** / A+ but not breaking beyond #3 of the year.
Update of my top 10
1. The Death of Stalin
2. BlackKklansman
3. Roma
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. A Quiet Place
6. Paddington 2
7. The Incredibles 2
8. A Star is Born
9. 22 July
10. Black Panther
… still to see: The Favourite, If Beale Street could talk, First Reformed, Eight Grade, Leave no trace, Boy erased, Destroyer, Can you ever forgive me? and so many…
DID see: Crazy Rich Asians, Annihilation, Bohemian Rhapsody (liked it)
Of the ones I’ve seen (A Star is Born, Incredibles 2, A Quiet Place, Avengers: Infinity War), solid choices. Wow! I thought you didn’t like A Star is Born that much. Did a second viewing changed your mind? A second viewing changed my mind on Captain Phillips. I didn’t like the first time, but did the second time.
no, I had serious issues with the project itself and only minor issues with the film, once seen (Bradley Cooper… is there any sequence when his character is not high? If there’s any, the movie has a problem as it a bit unbelievable anyone would fall for someone with a so obvious problem with alcohol and drugs, while being sober… it was too over the top and overselling the ending all the way through the film… a rookie’s mistake). That aside, the film is solid filmmaking, even thought nothing earth shattering, and Gaga deserves every inch of praise for this performance… while I don’t think she’s going to end as my Best Actress choice of the year, at all – so far, Aparicio, probably – she deserves the nom.
Until Amy Adams defeat King at the Globes and then win SAG, I still think King is the frontrunner for Oscars BSA. This is the category where black actresses in recent years enjoy great success in. From Hudson, Mo’Nique, Nyong’o, Spencer, to Davis. In the 12 year span, at least one black actress is nominated in the category in
78 of those years. And came out victorious 5 out of those78 times.I don’t know what happened at SAG, but the snub is a mystery. Was it a fluke? Beale screeners didn’t reach enough people? I haven’t seen the movie, but King’s performance must have been quite remarkable for her to sweep the critics awards. I would wait until GG before writing her off as the frontrunner.
If you’re rooting for Regina King, please don’t take this as me shooting down your hopes, but just offering you some award history. The reason why Christoph Waltz didn’t get nominated at SAG for Django Unchained was because that movie screened way too late for enough SAG voters to actually see it. That’s also why Daniel Day-Lewis and Meryl Streep missed out on SAG last year. However, If Beale Street Could Talk has been around since it premiered at TIFF this past September, and that whole team has done multiple screenings and Q&As for those industry voting members. So this was a meaningful snub of Regina King, and not an incidental one like Christoph Waltz. I think this is officially Amy Adams’ to lose. She’s going to win SAG, and most likely the Globe given how well Vice did in terms of nominations.
I’m not rooting. I’m assessing. And as I said, I reserve judgment until GG.
That’s why I said “if” I didn’t know if you were rooting for her or not. But remember, Stallone won the Golden Globe after being snubbed by SAG, and that still didn’t help him.
I’m not forgetting that. I was one of the few who predicted Rylance to win.
Nice job calling that race! I was definitely surprised Rylance won, so right on for calling that upset. But the difference there from King this year was Rylance was nominated for SAG, and lost to someone not nominated for the Oscar. Now if Regina King was nominated for SAG and lost, but won GG, CC, and BAFTA, that might be another story where she’d probably win the Oscar. And to clarify, I’m not judging you at all for reserving your judgement until the Globes. I’m just saying that it’s looking like Amy Adams’ year now.
Stallone wasn’t also nominated for BAFTA either. Rylance won BAFTA. Statistically, he was behind Rylance. To me, the Rylance win was NOT an upset. It was on par with statistics as well.
But it’s not always about who wins what but the narrative behind it. I felt the Stallone’s win at GG was not that significant. GG loves big movie stars on their stage so they voted for him.
Regina is not a big star, so if (and a big if) she wins GG, it would be a lot more meaningful, that her performance is more undeniable (like how Rylance’s performance was to AMPAS).
“To me, the Rylance win was NOT an upset.”
Same for me, as you may remember. Of course, the race WAS a bit unclear, even so. But Rylance was definitely the stats favorite.
anyone not noticing Adams was the frontrunner all along, is deceiving him/herself. If she earns the nom, nothing can stop her winning the Oscar.
Same with Close… if she earns the nom, she will really likely win. Aparicio would be the biggest threat (Gaga is winning in Song, so they won’t feel obligued to vote her as actress) if nom’d… then, Colman, specially if they want to give The Favourite something big rather than just Costume, Make up and Production Design
I don’t feel the urgency in the Amy overdue narrative. While being nominated often, her movie career has been relatively brief, 13 years. When DiCaprio and Julianne Moore won, they easily had 10-15 plus years in the business over her. And Best Supporting Actress category is not a place where the make-up awards tend to land. If Adams going to win this year here, it would have to be that she gave the most outstanding performance of the bunch. There’s no proof that the huge love for Amy in this forum is on par with AMPAS. They snubbed her for Arrival when she hit everywhere else.
My theory about how she was (shamefully) snubbed for Arrival was that they knew she was not going to win, and she had the overdue narrative, so they just decided not to set her up to fail.
No. That’s too deep. If they like a performance and the actor, they’ll vote for them. The better explanation (and I gave it at that time) was that voters probably split her nominations between Arrival and Nocturnal Animals and she couldn’t garner enough votes for either and just missed. Nevertheless, Arrival was a big BP nominee and she wasn’t swept along proved that they weren’t too hot for her. I feel the internet loves her more than AMPAS. She’s really not that overdue IMO.
Good point, unfortunately…
I don’t think Glenn Close is going to win. She’s lost almost every award this season so far, and Lady Gaga is a slam dunk to win the Golden Globe in the Actress (Drama) category, which will make Close’s path even more difficult. Remember, the critics groups came through for others with the overdue narrative like Julianne Moore and Leonardo DiCaprio.
Also, maybe the argument you and I had about Gaga winning Song so maybe they’ll give Actress to someone else doesn’t really work because I remembered something, the voters don’t see the songwriters names on the ballot.
are you telling me, nobody is going to remember Gaga wrote the song? Oh, the naiveness… why do you think they do the FYC ads?
I totally agree that Glenn Close will not be winning for a number of reasons.
As much as I want Amy to win you are right. If Regina wins the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Independent Spirit (Surely) and BAFTA (Still doubt she’d be nominated) + great critical support, she will win that Oscar. But I feel like people are underestimating Amy’s performance in Vice just because she is not “sweeping” and that if she wins the Oscar it’s just because she’s overdue. If she wins Globes, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA (I feel like this is Rachel Weisz’s to lose) it should be unanimously accepted that she defeated Regina and the others fair and square. Saw some clips of her as Lynne and she’s great.
I agree. If Adams wins those awards, then voters must have liked performance very much. In fact, that would be the main reason she can win.
I feel hopeful about Ethan Hawke and Regina King. Great performances ! Shame on you SAG-Aftra
Golden Globes snubbed Ethan Hawke too, he could still get a surprise nomination, but he has no path to Oscar victory.
I feel hopeful for Toni Collette too. She can still be nominated at BAFTA (they nominated her before for Little Miss Sunshine and About a Boy).
On the other way, BAFTA also loves Emily Blunt (they nominated her for The Girl On The Train and The Devil Wears Prada).
Emily Blunt is officially getting nominated at the Oscars this year. The industry loves Mary Poppins Returns, and the fact that she got nominated at SAG (twice as a matter of fact) in addition to the Globes says something. I actually was convinced by a lot of people here to switch my Comedy Actress Golden Globe prediction from Olivia Colman to Emily Blunt.
I love Lady Gaga and am happy for her and her film to win Oscars.
ASIB is far better than past winners like Argo, TKS and the artist IMO.
But it is frustrating year after year to see the truly BEST performances and films not be nominated or not win.
The people the awards voters are wanting to attract are not interested and won’t become interested not matter how hard they try. All these shit nominations and awards do us piss off the film and awards buffs that have different (I would say better) standards!
Change the title to Most Popular. That’s what these awards are.
The films you mention…
The King’s Speech ***** / A+ (in my top 5 of the new century… and worthy of a 100 best film list… I urge anyone underrating it, to rewatch and dig more in terms of meaning, framing, composition…)
The Artist ***** / A
A Star is Born ***** / A-
Argo ** / D
Composition worked for TKS, but Hopper really did a horrible job on Les Mis, where the exact same framing style didn’t work at all
I think the Les Mis film was fine. The problem was that the source material (the musical, not the book) is far from great.
But when the source material is presented as intended, Les Mis soars. It is meant to be grand. When Ive seen the Broadway productions, the big sweeping orchestrations and emotional belting totally bring you into the moment and I cry at multiple points along the way. However, the characters (besides maybe Valjean and Javert) are pretty thinly sketched. That’s not an issue in a big Broadway production that plays the music as intended because that epic music carries so much emotion. Hooper failed in his concept for the film because he chose to zoom in on the material (often, quite literally). This method exposed how little there is to many of the characters. Add in that they whittled the orchestrations down to nothing for most numbers (so non-singers like HBC could sing live and employ liberal phrasing which barely even follows the melody), and the music had zero impact. The music is what sells the piece and they killed that central element. And I must say, I’ve seen some horrendous community theater productions of this show, but the film is the only time I’ve been actively bored during ‘Master of the House.’
Fascinating commentary here, theatregeek. Thank you.
I envy your theater-going experiences.
thanks Ryan! I was hoping I didn’t steer discussion too far off track for a film site haha.
I believe the national tour is still running (based on the most recent Broadway revival a few years ago). I would encourage you, or anyone, to catch it and see how the emotion is carried so differently, and much more effectively, in the stage version.
I thought the framing of Les Mis made it feel claustrophobic, which is in tune with a lot of the themes of the source material – the novel. (I also didn’t like ‘Master of the House’ one bit.) I get that many people disliked that claustrophobic tone in the movie, but for me it worked perfectly.
Argo is the one I will never understand, namely in what universe was Ben Affleck some kind of auteur whose snub needed to be avenged. That car chase on the tarmac at the end of the picture would have been embarrassing in one of those 80’s Chuck Norris films, let alone a Best Picture winner.
That being said, the second half of ASIB is paint by numbers stuff designed to make the film seem like its about more than it actually is.
I’m re-enacting the climactic ritual of Hereditary to get Toni Colette nominated for Best Actress at the Osacrs.
Haha me too. She won’t make even if she makes it into BAFTA. Wouldn’t it be an amazing surprise though?
Cordelia, lol, couldn’t agree more.
I loved Toni Collette in Hereditary, I want so much that she gets an Oscar nomination, but I’d never expect her to win.
I was doing some research and in the past, Oscar race (at least for acting awards) was more unpredictable. Take for example the season 1999-2000, when Toni Collette was nominated for Best Supporting Actress in Oscars for “The Sixth Sense” and consider these following awards: Indie Spirit, Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and Oscar.
Angelina Jolie – Girl, Interrupted: missed Indie Spirit and BAFTA
Catherine Keener – Being John Malkovich: missed Indie Spirit and BAFTA
Chloë Sevigny – Boys Don’t Cry: only misssed BAFTA
Samantha Morton – Sweet and Lowdown: missed Indie Spirit, SAG and BAFTA
Toni Collette – The Sixth Sense: missed all precursors!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b22427511069fbcf8e3bfd1154de6214423cf5caaf5333c410460a3a493b2d5c.png
I still have hope for Toni.
I am still shocked SAG snubbed Regina King. That’s a big slap in the face. I would never have predicted it. In fact, I would have guessed the GLOBES snubbing King before SAG. So is she going to win the Oscar? Or is the SAG curse complete? Molds are meant to be broken. Last year we saw Shape of Water win the Oscar without an Ensemble nod. First time ever since the new voting system. I still think King can do it but she needs to win an industry award. Has anyone seen Amy Adams in Vice? Is she worthy at all? This really sounds like a makeup award and that will not hold well years from now. Or perhaps Beale Street just wasn’t screened? Or that the committee wanted to focus on Spike Lee’s “racial” movie instead. Lee is DEF owed. He needs a film of his to be a Best Picture nominee. It’s about time he got some recognition.
If King is Oscar nominated, and wins the Globe, I will keep her in my predictions for the win. But again- still confused as to why she missed. Emily Blunt getting two (2) SAG nominations is bizarre. It’s great she’s finally getting recognition, but it’s not even her year. The Oscar is going to Glenn Close or Lady Gaga. Blunt wasn’t even a factor. So is SAG telling us she IS a factor now? Or was this a fluke?
Regina King has won two Emmys out of four nominations. She’s never been individually nominated for a SAG Award ever but was in an ensemble nomination (for Ray, in 2005) and she has never been nominated for a SAG for any performance in which she won Emmys so that take that for what its worth.
Thanks for the history lesson, but what does that have to do with her being snubbed? You’re giving me a college thesis paper on facts that are not relevant to what I asked. She was SNUBBED for her film performance this year. I am not talking about TV. That’s separate.
Good lord, you weirdo, RELAX. I was literally supporting your argument, clarifying that the problem is with the SAGs and some unusual prejudice against her.
And King has won three (3) Emmys, not two. Just FYI
Actor is suddenly looking verrrrrry interesting.
-Cooper has had the Actor win buzz, but even he is focusing more on the Director campaign.
-Bale might just win on technical merit; and if Vice goes over very well with AMPAS.
-Viggo could win the Globe over Bale (word is they loved GB even more than Vice), giving Viggo a shot in the arm over Bale.
-And Malek could beat Cooper in Drama Globe if the HFPA is already giving Cooper 2 wins for Picture and maybe Director. Also, BH is loved by SAG (that insane Ensemble nod). SAG “could” go for Malek there. Malek will be loved by BAFTA, too.
Hmm.
I kinda feel that the Globe will tell the tale. Once the first major award falls, the rest will follow. Malek does have the upper hand, because his major contenders – Mortensen and Bale – are in Comedy. He only has Cooper to beat and that is easy. The BP nod for Rhapsody is also very meaningful. So brace yourselves folks, Malek can actually win this shit.
I’d like to see a stat on the number of Oscar winners who have peed their pants on screen. Could let us know if Cooper’s a winner!
If peeing in your pants is cool. Consider me Miles Davis.
Peeing pants: My NGNG was that Lakeith Stanfield for Sorry to Bother You would get a SAG nom for Best Actor. It didn’t work out.
He really should’ve been in the conversation, as well as Sorry to Bother You. Even if that film took a very weird turn in Act 3.
I feel widows is dead
Funny enough, I think Blackkklansman, Crazy Rich Asians (can SO see it) or Black Panther has a better shot at winning Ensemble than A Star is Born. And if that happens, that’s more of a good thing for ASIB; it’ll continue to be a front runner, but not a LLL-is-overrated monster.
I mean, I don’t think that’s the best comparison – if it doesn’t win where LLL wasn’t even nominated it won’t be as over-rewarded as LLL doesn’t really make sense. But the idea is kinda right – it not winning a bunch of stuff would remove the target on it’s head. The only other thing I’d mention everybody has seen and made up their mind about ASIB by now, whereas LLL was a really late release so it had the opportunity for people to see the hype, watch it and then go “is that it?” that can’t happen from here on with ASIB since everyone mildly interested had seen it a month ago.
Predicting it now: Black Panther will win SAG ensemble.
Logic says BlackKklansman is winning Ensemble… I’d say that race is right now…
1. BlackKklansman
2. Black Panther
3. Crazy Rich Asians
4. A Star is Born
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
but there are strong reasons for all 5 to win. I don’t really bet on anyone… I think BKKKM is winning for a number of reasons..
1) Being the most important film
2) The mix of actors not only in race, but in profile… HARRY BELAFONTE is among the nominees!!!
3) It’s unlikely to win some other award, if they want to spread the wealth, they are obligued to go BKKKM (3 noms and can only win here) while ASiB has another 3 chances aside of Ensemble.
4) Campaigning seems to be working just fine. Not too loud, not too silent. We’re watching some results now.
But honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised by any of the 5 winning… and I’ve seen all 5 films, and my rank for this cathegory would be – ensemble judging:
1. BlackKklansman
2. Crazy Rich Asians
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Star is Born
5. Black Panther
Good case for that!
Imagine a year when an Arab-American (Malek…playing a LGBT character, I may add), a Mexican (Aparicio), a Black (Ali) and a White (Adams) win the top four acting awards at the Oscars. See?!? We can all get along!
Yeah, imagine 🙂
Interesting use of lowercase “w”.
fixed!
technically though the first two should be in caps while the last two should be in small caps, no? I don’t have my grammarly on
Cooper – Close – Grant – Adams is the combo that might end winning… but certainly I’d give it to Malek, Hawke or Washington over Bale and Cooper.
I have to say Adams has it in the bag. It’s her time, she’s due.
I agree, yesterday you were saying you thought Regina King was still out front, did I convince you it’s Amy Adams’ year? But you also mentioned yesterday you gave into the Lady Gaga Best Actress thing. She has the Best Actress – Drama, Golden Globe in the bag.
King had an advantage but Adams and Vice strong showing at the SAG indicates that she might very well the frontrunner for an Oscar that is overdue. SAG noms have changed the Supporting Race
Also, I consider that if Washington is nominated for the Oscar, and BKKKM scores over 7-8 noms, it’s game over. So far, I’m counting BKKKM to be only nominated at Picture, Director, Adapted and Film Editing (the 4 I feel it can win), and with a second tier for Supporting (Driver), Score, Cinematography, Make Up, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Costume and Song. Then, Washington. IF Washington lands a nom thanks to the acting branch, that means that the film will be massively supported by them, plus it has an even more appeal than A Star is Born througout the branches… so, if it scores 7-8 it may win, if it scores 10, it’s the winner.
I haven’t seen BlacKKKlansman yet, I will over the holidays, but do you think it’s the kind of film that would be a #2 choice if it’s not a #1 choice on the preferential ballot? All I can say for now is A Star is Born is a slam dunk to win Best Film – Drama at the Golden Globes.
I’ve seen both, and seriously I can’t see liberal hollywood voting for A Star is Born instead of BlackKklansman for the win. Full stop.
At the Globes, A Star is Born is a lock to win Best Film. At the Oscars, that might be another story.
What about the Best Actress race? I thought for a second you gave in to Lady Gaga but you now have switched back to Glenn Close. It’s almost inevitable Gaga is winning the Drama Actress Golden Globe, that’s going to make it difficult for Close because I don’t think she’ll win SAG if she loses the Globe.
Gaga is winning song. That leaves way to reward a living legend as Close.
The Oscars make history every year. But I think Olivia Colman is the alternative, unless she loses the Golden Globe to Emily Blunt (which I think is what will happen). The Academy loves it when entertainers are not quote on quote “actors” put on an amazing performance, and this works in Lady Gaga’s favor. Also, the critics groups are not coming through for Close. There’s a weird rule that if you’re the only nominee for your film (which Close is likely to be), you have to win either National Board Review, LA Film Critics, New York Film Critics, or National Society Critics. She’s already lost three of these. At least one of these groups came through for Julianne Moore, Christopher Plummer, and Forrest Whittaker.
The song is like the movie itself. Starts off well, slow burn, builds up, and then just abruptly ends
like Rock stars careers… you got the allegory.
John Singleton and, hear hear, Harry Belafonte (!!!) came out in support of Green Book today. That’s one hell of a publicity push for the film.
Green Book is weak sauce!
I did not know that but if they get the word out about that it could be huge for Green Book considering it’s biggest problem is people saying it’s a white man’s movie.
odd, as Belafonte’s main bet should be BlackKklansman for obvious reasons… he’s part of the cast! Even nominated for the SAG ensemble!
He says that he knew Ali’s character very well and he says that the film is absolutely faithful to his life.
Wow, that’s some endorsement…
Well, Singleton praised the movie and Farrelly’s directorial/writing job on the film.
Belafonte praised Ali’s portrayal and for the film as being accurate to the experience (I suppose, that he had and/or knew of at the time). I’m sure he still fully supports Blackkklansman for awards chances.
Well, Singleton praised the movie and Farrelly’s directorial/writing job on the film.
Belafonte praised Ali’s portrayal and for the film as being accurate to the experience (I suppose, that he had and/or knew of at the time). I’m sure he still fully supports Blackkklansman for awards chances.
What the SAG Nominations Tell Us… American Federation of Television and Radio Artists shouldn’t vote for film nominees and winners.
And What They Don’t Tell Us… how long we can go on pretending Bohemian Rhapsody has no director.
I was listening to a podcast this morning (can’t recall which one, sorry) where they mentioned that the reason why Singer isn’t being mentioned is the fact that it feels like Rami Malek was the steering hand behind the film, and the one who pushed to have Singer fired. So, in that way, the film has already ‘dealt with’ the Singer problem.
I don’t buy it, but that might be what’s in voters minds, if the issue is in their mind at all.
As someone who has followed the Oscars for a long time, I’m surprised Sasha actually wants there to be a popular film category. That would cheapen what it means to win an Oscar. That’s what you have the People’s Choice Awards for.
Getting every popular film nominated just because they’re popular like Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians etc. also cheapens the award by that logic.
Television ratings. That’s it. Nothing to do with craft.
Television ratings.
We have already 7 “Best Picture Oscars” every year.
Best Picture
Best Picture (Foreign Language)
Best Picture (Animated)
Best Picture (Documentary)
Best Picture (Short subject live action)
Best Picture (Short subject animated)
Best Picture (Short subject documentary)
#reality check
It is the movie makers that make a movie:
– foreign
– animated
– a documentary
– a short subject
… (so on)
It is the audience that makes it “popular”.
#realitycheckindeed
I get where the whole “we need to be relevant again” is coming from, but in this particular case, yes, it will cheapen the awards. You want to be more “with the people”? Add a Best Kiss category, or a Best Fight, Best Villain, and so on…
You wanna go with the audiences? Loose these boring as fuck technical categories, that nobody wants to watch. Expand the best song category to 10, so you have a better chance that Beyonce gets a nod and will be compelled to perform live on your show.
They can do all that to pump the ratings, no problem. But as they say, you can shear a sheep many times, but skin it only once. In the short game – yes, a Best Popular Picture will save the ratings and will be called an overall success. Sure. But in the long game, The Oscars will move more towards such shows as the MTV Movie Awards. Suddenly they become the Oscars’ competition. They will be aiming for the same crowd. In quality and general recognition these award shows will grow closer, and in time, in order to keep competing for the attention of the audiences, further changes will follow that will make these shows even more similar.
As much as you want to complain about the Oscars, they like to keep things simple. Cinematography is no longer separated into Color and B&W, same goes for Costumes and Art Direction. Best Score is no longer divided between Comedies and Dramas. They are considered equal, equal in opportunities of course. Same goes for Best Picture – Which movie did you like best? Simple.
I really hope the Academy will stay their ground on this. In the long game they can only benefit. IMHO it’s exacly the opposite of what everyone says. By not submitting to the popular vote, they will become more relevant – to movies of course.
Once people tune in to watch the show then it will mean something. All these other award shows still the juice from Oscars.
Globes
Sags
Baftas
Spriit
Critics Choice
The awards circuit is treacherous. People tune in and don’t see variety they know from watching the same movies win over and over again. So why watch it. They’re burnt out on the same shenanigans. The audience isn’t gonna show up.
Fewer televised events more ratings for the Oscars. How that happens, IDK.
When The Favourite was snubbed in Ensemble and Beale Street was completely shut out only for Bohemian Rhapsody to be nominated, I realized that Beale Street might not even get a Best Picture nomination. It looks exactly like Carol did three years ago: an acclaimed movie with a potential Screenplay/Acting win and a few techs, that got crushed by the top guilds. Carol didn’t make PGA, neither will Beale Street; Carol got two SAG nods but no Ensemble, Beale Street didn’t even get the Supporting Actress frontrunner nominated; it won’t make DGA and certainly it won’t make BAFTA, unlike Carol which got Best Film and Director nominatons there.
They want to be popular again, which I’m even fine with to an extent. I just wish they weren’t such hypocrites. Who made Bohemian Rhapsody? Did it direct itself? Have the guts to nominate Bryan Singer. At least you’d be consistent with your thinking. Where is the “separate the art from the person” mindset that brought Polanski to a Best Director win (and thank goodness they thought like that)? You made Kevin Hart step down and then you welcome a movie directed by an alleged paedophile into the Oscar ring? Hypocrites.
I think you’re making a couple leaps there when you say Beale Street is doomed to not get into the other guilds. PGA tends to nominate a lot of movies, Jenkins is almost certainly well respected by directors, and we’ll see how BAFTA turns out.
As for the Bryan Singer issue, I highly doubt that even if he wasn’t “problematic” he would have much of a chance at Best Director. Even if Bohemian Rhapsody does make it into the ten BP nods it highly unlikely to be in the top five and the director’s branch is generally snobbier than most of the Academy.
Singer never stood a chance and audience rightfully embraced Bohemian Rhapsody as a celebration of Freddie Mercury instead of going the twitter way in condemnation of Singer. People want to have good time at the movies, and what directors and stars do in their spare time is irrelevant since majority of audience doesn’t even follow with gossip. The movie is an enormous hit and rightly so. Also, isn’t his name withdrawn anyway? Dexter Fletcher is credited so that’s that.
No, Fletcher finished the production but the DGA reverted full credit to Singer.
Probably alot of people don’t even know Singers backstory. A co worker of mine who’s gay loved the film. I told her about the controversy with him about young boys and she did not know that about him.
The question is, is Beale Street cold, removed, like a Carol, or to a lesser extent, films like Atonement and The Reader which were early favorites and always appealed to the Academy, but inexplicably missed precursors left and right? I haven’t seen the movie yet. But I thought people who did see it were raving, feeling such joy toward it. It’s certainly not having that reception so far. I still think Jenkins will get the best director nomination, but it can’t be ignored that the Spike Lee turns up every award show instead
Atonement won Golden Globe Drama and BAFTA, how can you compare it to Beale Street? The one similarity is that Atonement was seriously damaged by SAG too (another major mistake they made), and consequently underperformed at the Oscars (no Joe Wright, no Keira, no James), but it still was infinitely stronger than Beale Street because of those two awards. After the Globes, Atonement looked like it was #2 in the race, even ahead of There Will Be Blood.
Carol came out of Cannes a potential Best Picture winner, it had the prestige, the auterism of Todd Haynes, two raved performances (one of which by an extremely beloved actress) and a potential slew of tech nominations. The Golden Globes nominated it for Drama, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Score. Then SAG snubbed it in Ensemble, then PGA snubbed it, even the AFI snubbed it. They may not be the same movie but they’re still that kind of prestige, gorgeous-looking arthouse pics that you expect to do well.
CAROL wasn’t snubbed by AFI. It was in their top 10.
PGA snub was decisive.
Carol is cold and removed? What?
While I disagree with any of those films being “cold”, I think claiming that The Reader, of all films, is cold is quite baffling. So, I’d love to hear your arguments towards it
I think both Carol and The Reader are strong, intellectually engaging, well crafted films that deserved Best Picture nominations (or at least in the case of Reader, a top 10/more-slots-than-5 place, though I preferred it to Frost/Nixon, a fine, smart film that isn’t too memorable). What I’m saying is that the take on Carol at the time was that it was leaving insiders cold and they were not connecting with it enough to vote for it as originally expected. For a melodramatic romance, that matters. Do I agree? Carol is a bit removed and The Reader is a biiiiiit of a slog if you want to be critical—and you have to get past the May-December romance angle—but both years had other films with better receptions with the Acad that I find to be inferior and less emotionally engaging.
I haven’t seen it yet seen yet, but I don’t think Beale Street is out of the running for a Best Picture nomination just yet. It showed up at the Globes and Critics Choice in Best Picture. I think it could get a PGA nom.
I still don’t understand how Carol missed. It got 6 nominations. 2 acting. 1 writing. How was that not enough for a BP nomination where many films manage to get in as their sole nom?
And the 6 noms make the comparison somewhat less direct: if Beale Street missed BP, it could get in for S. Actress, Writing, Music maybe. Isn’t that a fall too high for a film that was a few weeks ago considered a potential winner?
Carol missing best picture despite 6 nominations and being one of the most acclaimed films of the year (most acclaimed on MC for 2015) is definitely one of the weirdest things in recent Oscar history.
I still forget that Carol wasn’t nominated. What an embarassment
Foxcatcher got Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay, Best Makeup, and yet no Best Picture. Miracles of the 5-slot nomination ballot.
It’s funny how some people here and in the other threads criticize Amy Adams even if for sure they still haven’t watched Vice and are just plain bitter that Regina King was snubbed at the SAG. Amy was and continues to be nominated in Critics group and she has Golden Globe and Critics Choice nom in her name. If there’s anyone who had to shift place for Regina it’s definitely not her. It’s just so disrespectful to Amy’s hardwork. And remember, Amy DOESN’T miss a mark with every performance that she does and for sure her performance in Vice could equal that of Regina’s. It’s so happens that critics loved Regina more because she’s in an independent film and her film is not as divisive as Amy’s. Lastly, Amy is nominated both for her performances in Sharp Objects (TV) and Vice (Movie) and has to compete with Regina twice in the Golden Globes and Emma Stone also twice in SAG. If that’s not proof of her brimming talent and excellence as an actress then I don’t know what is. Stop the disrespect. Overdue or not, voters loved her perfomance.
I’m a film buff. Call me a cinephile. But to be honest, I have never heard of Regina King before this awards season.
Adams earned every nomination she has every received.
Regina King is a television actress, an excellent television actress.
I’m still bummed that she didn’t get nominated for The Leftovers.
I’m still bummed that The Leftovers didn’t win EVERYTHING.
well if anything, I hope King will get more film roles now. No one has heard of Carrie Coon until her film debut, I think it was Fincher’s Gone Girl?
Yes, same year as when The Leftovers began.
Ok I had to go a google search to see which character King played in The Leftovers. I remember her now. She just didn’t really stand out for me at the time.
I still believe the first season of the Leftovers is a big mess. Season 2 is where the greatness begins.
I hated the first season, but the 180 that show took floored me like very few shows have. I think Regina King was fantastic during the second season, but everyone was, so…
I REALLY disliked everything to do with the Guilty Remnants in Season 1.
Come to think of it, the entire cast of Widows, could make good members of the Guilty Remnants
“I REALLY disliked everything to do with the Guilty Remnants in Season 1.”
Indeed – SO annoying and contrived…
“I still believe the first season of the Leftovers is a big mess. Season 2 is where the greatness begins.”
Good to know! I’ve been bogged down in the first season for ages. (Liking it just enough to not quit completely, but not quite liking it enough to get through more than one or two episodes at a time, past the first few.) I guess I need to brave through it somehow, if you say it’s worth it…
Carrie Coon is an accomplished theater actor.
An excellent TV actress who also deserved a nod back in 2004 for Supporting in “Ray”. Boy, was she good in that role.
So that means she will lose the Oscar, just like last year’s excellent television actress Laurie Metcalf, who used to be the best thing about the now-cancelled television show “Roseanne”.
It’s not like Allison Janney was a major movie star.
I really hope this doesn’t turn into “we must award King now because of SAG snub”. people simply didn’t like Beale. As someone said on another site, it’s a movie for Barry blogger wankers. And anyone outside of it is not gonna go crazy for the movie or King.
Thank you for writing this.
God help us if amy wins this oscar, people wont stop with “amy adams stole regina king’s oscar”.
I’m trying to figure out why this conversation is fun to have. I love a conversation like “this movie or performance should get nominated because its good in the following ways and people respond to that” but not “this movie should be nominated because of historically predictive statistics”
You’re still on that? 🙂 Well, I guess I can’t blame you, since we’re still on the stats thing ourselves… (Sasha, myself and a lot of other people.)
“Voters will now gather with family and friends in their holiday dens —
aglow in firelight, and wine, and weed, and the warmth of the season —
and select from the teetering Jenga tower of screeners that have been
sent to them.”
And they will be like: “Look at this one, honey, looks like the perfect film for christians like us, and Ethan Hawke plays the priest – let´s put it in!”
Imagine the dread they feel during the scene when Ethan Hawke’s pastor character shows kids visiting the church the “secret basement” in front of the altar…
Since it is a guild award, would it matter if an actor was a member of the union to qualify for a nomination? I think Roma would have been a longshot for any acting category, given the competition, but I’m wondering if actors in foreign films who have never worked in the US would be eligible to be nominated in the first place. I do find, though, that the SAGs do tend to lean more towards populism, anyway–usually in the tv categories, but occasionally in the film categories, as well–and with the addition of the AFTRA members, I have no doubt that that upended things considerably this year
I suppose they would be eligible, as Slumdog Millionaire had no problem getting in.
To my knowledge the WGA is the only guild that disqualifies nominees on grounds like that.
What SAG has told us is quite clear… the most supported film by the acting brunch – a traditional anti-Trump branch, politcally vocal tending always to american liberalism (which is not the same as economic liberalism) – is, what a chance, the biggest anti-Trump statement of the year (non-doc): BlackKklansman.
Think about it: Washington was a longshot only weeks ago. He has been always “alternate”, now he’s in for Globe and SAG. Driver was likely but iffy… now he also has both noms. They can easily translate (even thought I wouldn’t be shocked if neither of them makes the cut) to Oscar noms, where the ensemble nom in acting branch’s eyes, is Best Picture.
Out of the 5 nominees, I think BlackKklansman is the frontrunner to win SAG Ensemble for a number or reasons.
1) Political. I think I don’t need to repeat myself, do I?
2) The heavy campaign with prominent names involved, given that…
3) If an african-american film is going to be featured prominently from now on, logic says it’s BKKKM which is a film that people can see winning. If Beale Street could talk has weakened its chances (I think Moonlight’s victory a couple of years ago, is a factor), and Black Panther is still a popcorn superhero film (which does not benefit from repeated viewings, honestly) that deserves more recognition in technicals than in the big ones.
4) Again, the argument that history would be made by having an african-american winning Best Director at the Oscars, AND Best Picture to underline it’s not a pity vote… in similar situation, most of the times that happened.
Fantasy Film? Shape of water Pic and Direction
Female director? The Hurt Locker both
Overdue Marty? The Departed both
Overdue Spielberg? Schindler’s List both
Lord of the Rings final film? Return of the King, both
A mute film breaking expectations? The Artist both
It’s been easier to give Best Picture to African-American films (Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave) but they have been reluctant to also agree on director.
Exception – and a painful one – is Ang Lee. 2 director wins, no Best Picture. Ouch.
so, after the SAG noms, I’d say, pending on another twist in the race, that the actual winner at Oscar night will be either A Star is Born or BlackKklansman… which kind of reminds me of La La Land vs Moonlight, to be honest.
This. There’s a strange blindness on Oscar prognosticators part when it comes to this movie and Lee. He has a really good narrative.
so much that I thought many times, that some articles could have been “sponsored” to keep buzz on some films alive *cough* First Man *cough* or start building buzz to a questionable project even before there were objective reasons to have it in mind *cough* A Star is Born *cough*. I remember when I, months ago, started pointing out that BlackKklansman and First Reformed (specially Ethan Hawke) could be really be important players for the final result and got either overlooked or directly bashed as a “fanatic” – I’m used to that, internet age. Well, after watching Bohemian Rhapsody I also stated its Best Picture nominee potential and then, again, same reaction. Time has proven I was objective, not biased and well, all three films are arriving to the key moment with serious chances of scoring important nods and even wins.
It’s good “A Star is Born” lived up to the hype – I liked it, a lot, and think it would be an OK Best Picture winner if we ignore some of the competition… it’s not a terrible choice, and certainly one I can live with.
To clarify my taste, these are my Best Picture winners since the year I was born… let’s see how many have you seen, and specially how many were Best Picture nominees…
* Nominee
** Winner
+ Foreign Film nominee
++ Foreign Film Winner
/*/ Documentary Feature Winner
2018 – The Death of Stalin
2017 – Colossal
2016 – Moonlight **
2015 – Mad Max: Fury Road
2014 – (tie) L’Inconnu du Lac (Stranger by the Lake), Snowpiercer & The LEGO Movie
2013 – The Wolf of Wall Street *
2012 – Life of Pi *
2011 – The Tree of Life *
2010 – The King’s Speech **
2009 – In the Loop
2008 – The Dark Knight
2007 – Hairspray
2006 – Borat: or cultural learnings from America to benefit Glorious People of Kazakhstan
2005 – Brokeback Mountain*
2004 – Hero (Zhang Yimou)+
2003 – Lost in Translation
2002 – Bowling for Columbine /*/
2001 – Hedwig and the Angry Inch (almost a tie with Mulholland Drive, admittedly)
2000 – Requiem for a Dream
1999 – Fight Club
1998- El Milagro de P. Tinto
1997 – Chasing Amy
1996 – Trainspotting
1995 – Babe *
1994 – Pulp Fiction *
1993 – The Piano *
1992 – Unforgiven **
1991 – JFK *
1990 – The Godfather, Part III * (SO underrated)
1989 – Do the Right Thing
1988 – Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown +
1987 – Good Morning, Vietnam
1986 – Little Shop of Horrors (Aliens, admittedly close second)
1985 – The Colour Purple *
1984 – Amadeus **
1983 – Monty Python’s The Meaning of Life
1982 – John Carpenter’s The Thing
1981 – Raiders of the Lost Ark *
1980 – Airplane!
1979 – Apocalypse Now *
1978 – The Deer Hunter **
1977 – Annie Hall **
1976 – Network *
1975 – Dersu Uzala +
1974 – Day for Night +
1973 – The Exorcist *
1972 – Cabaret *
1971 – A Clockwork Orange *
1970 – M*A*S*H *
Wasn’t Driver the real lead of the film? I saw Washington as a supporting character, even though the title referred to him
Uhm, how? Driver is just the action man, but the mastermind of the plan is Washington.
Washington spent most of his time behind a desk. Driver was out and about with the Klansmen getting into tough situations. If anything, they are co-leads.
Washington is the clear lead and driver clear supporting. No fraud in either case.
I saw them as coleads. Pääkkönen, Grace, and Atkinson among others where the supporting ones, in my book
I dunno. I think the mistake may be saying “The SAG voters”. Shouldn’t it be “The SAG + AFTRA voters”?
As I understand it, they’re quite a big group that make up a significant portion of “SAG awards” voting that won’t likely also be voting at the Oscars.
In other words, their combined tastes really may not reflect the tastes of actors voting at the Oscars.
Oscar voters have included some classy, understated performances in recent years, even when they didn’t have the precursor attention to back them up (Rampling, Cotillard take 2, Negga, Huppert – admittedly boosted by the Globes, also Bardem (both his lead noms), Bichir, Oldman (TTSS))). It does suggest they know what they’re doing when it comes to spotting worthy performances. (Remember when they dumped almost the entire Globes Best Actress lineup in 2003 – I think – except Theron & Keaton & nominated Samantha Morton, Naomi Watts & Keisha-Castle Hughes instead? Granted all theee of those got some form of boost from SAG, but those were pre-AFTEA days.
I’m hoping there’s at least a bit of “backlash” to this rampant populism that will put a bit more focus on critically acclaimed films & performance to balance things out a bit more.
I mean – I can hope, right?
The first thing Isaid after seeing the nominees was “I blame AFTRA”
I think you are right. It seems to me that many forget that Oscar’s intermittent good taste is not quite so intermittent. And so when a Negga or a Rampling or a Lesley Manville crops up they are ‘surprises’ because prognosticators are so tied to their patterns and predictions. I remember cheering when Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva both cropped up against the odds in the 2012 season.
In this regard, it’s clear to me that the following all stand a decent shot of picking up nods this year, despite what the precursors might indicate:
Ethan Hawke
Willem Dafoe
Clint Eastwood
Toni Collette
Elsie Fisher
Yalitza Aparicio
Rosamund Pike
Robert Forster
Sissy Spacek
Natalie Portman
and if Green Book is as popular as I anticipate it will be with AMPAS, Linda Cardellini
I was assuming Ethan Hawke is in. Hes like 3rd or 4th on most lists
A good third at Gold Derby don’t fancy his chances.
I might start to sound like a broken record, and even I know better than to predict her at this point, but Natalie Portman keeps the campaign going with full speed. Yesterday she was on Jimmy Fallon promoting Vox Lux, also on Today Show, she did a WIRED video yesterday, Ellen a week ago, and is on the cover of Vanity Fair, accompanied by another video a month back. I wonder if they still think she might get in at the Oscars.
i think this clip alone is worth of a nomination, if not a win…. I know it`s still on limited release, but what happened with screeners? Did voters see it? If yes, i can understand they didint like the movie at all (or just didnt get it….), but THAT performance? How can they ignore her?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P90N5VfYnuE
I thought she will pop up in critics’ awards here and there. She didn’t. Nor the Globes. Nor the SAG. But I can’t let go of the fact that she’s gotta show up somewhere, right? Is she really going to get zilch for this performance?
in a perfect world, it would be down to Portman vs Swinton in BSA
Natalie has to apologize for saying Jessica Simpson is famous because of her boobs. Which is true.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d8f3fd34329851cdfefb4d84d902ea71410088e5569c45fb8b884371072bc612.png
omg im DECEASED!
it’s not “Best Ensemble Film”, but “Best Ensemble in a film”.
It can be the best ensemble in a food truck. It is not deserving
You can’t really call someone in their 30-40s ‘very overdue’. What about glenn close, then? Yes, I understand 6 nominations behind her back suggests that in some oscarland, but the choice of yours shows you believe the same thing. Whereas Adams is no streep or close or redgrave. She was good in her first nominated film, but Doubt and Hustle are not worthy performances. If that was the case then what award would you give Lesley Manville in Another Year or Harriet Anderson in Cries and Whispers?
Amy Adams is a great talent.
Reiterating what I said earlier regarding Roma and its path to a Best Picture, the only other foreign language film to earn a SAG Ensemble nomination was Life is Beautiful in 1999. It even earned a Lead Male Actor nomination for Robert Benigni who at the time was relativele obscure in the United States (aside from frequent guest appearances on David Letterman’s talk shows).
The Shape of Water, despite missing a nomination for SAG nomination earned nominations for Lead Female Actor (Sally Hawkins) and Supporting Male Actor (Richard Jenkins). Roma has no SAG nominations altogether (individual or ensemble whatsoever). I knew that it would be a long shot for getting in for an Ensemble nomination, but the lack of even an individual acting nomination stings. Consider this: SAG was able to nominate Barkhad Abdi in Supporting Male Actor despite having no acting credits prior (He was a taxi driver in Somali prior to his role in Captain Phillips). They even nominated (and AWARDED) the cast of Slumdog Millionaire–even the child actors who played younger versions of Jamil and Latika–for its Ensemble Cast. Heck, even Dev Patel, who was relatively new in the States, was nominated for Supporting Male Actor. Yet Yalitza Aparicio could not even manage a Lead Female Actor nomination for her role in Roma. Roma does indeed have its work out cut for it.
Slumdog was an easily accessible film…it was a relatively generic story with loud music and bright visuals. Roma is an artistic achievement, but not an easy sell. SAG-AFTRA is made up of not only actors but regional broadcasters and TV personalities. These people are likely to pick broader, more popular choices.
Slumdog’s dialogue was almost entire in the English language. Roma is in Spanish. So there’s that as well.
The difference between Captain Phillips/Slumdog Millionaire v Roma is that at least those films were English and had recognisable faces (Dev Patel at least had his TV work behind him to help).
Keep in mind that it’s now SAG-AFTRA, and a lot of those voters may never have sat down to watch Roma.
Not saying that she is a shoe-in for a nom now, but there’s a lot of factors against her being nominated.
I really do not think she will, especially in such a super competitive year. I also forgot that Abdul had the benefit of having Tom Hanks as a co-Star.
I don’t think she will either, but if Roma is going to pack heat at the Oscars, then it could happen. Strangers things have happened.
Great write-up, as always. I agree with just about everything touched upon.
As I said elsewhere, this is the year the blockbuster roars again and the industry says: enough with these indies that no one will see.
ASIB vs Black Panther with modest hit Blackkklansman in the thick of it.
For actor, when Hedges got in at the Globes, I figured he’d the 5th spot. Then I figured Gosling. Now with JD Washington showing up twice, perhaps it IS him. Of course it still could be Hawke, but I maintain that he’s just a critics darling.
These 5 Best Actresses look like it to me.
Ditto that for Supporting Actor.
Supporting Actress is a hot mess. I figure Regina King in for Emily Blunt here (an anomaly because AQP was seen early and by all and loved). That leaves the 5th spot. Robbie has the edge now. But I still can’t count out Foy or Kidman (should be her, IMO). Even Yeoh still has a small chance, I think.
I think Beale Street will rebound within the Academy.
Roma? I think it’s dead as far as major wins.
And Widows really is a goner, too.
I wouldn’t discount Roma just yet. Remember, a lot of regular people will be able to see it starting Friday on Netflix. That could be more people than who would ever see Beale or Widows. Who knows, it might have positive word of mouth among the masses and could swing the Academy in its favour?
Oh yeah, Roma should be fine. I just think it’s not gonna get major wins now. I see multiple noms (Picture, Director, Cinematography etc), I just wonder if it’ll have that buzz now to get wins other than Foreign. It can def do very well, just not seeing it at the moment. Critics and BFCA are one thing.
It’s… winning Director and Cinematography.
Roma is definitely in line for major wins still, and it can still be Curaon’s year for MULTIPLE awards, He is still VERY much in the running for Best Director, and It is practically a lock for Foreign Film, with a VERY strong possible Cinematography win, and possible Editing win or definitely nomination. I also think Emily blunt might not make the oscar cut, and will be replaced be either Yalitza from Roma, Soarise, Kidman, or most likely Toni Collette
My reaction to Regina King out but Bohemian Rhapsody in…
https://i2.wp.com/78.media.tumblr.com/382c946c2dd87f46b9d451542100d231/tumblr_pcoyob6HxM1sc0ffqo4_540.gif?w=605&ssl=1
As I look over these ensembles what I just realised is that they picked the 5 least subtle films in the group. As much as I really like Blackkklansman it, like the other 4, is hit you over the head obvious with what it is and what it is trying to do and I wonder whether that is part of the key with this group since we aren’t just talking about actors these days we are also talking radio hosts, weathermen, newscasters etc etc who maybe don’t get the nuance of (I say this without seeing them – basing this off what others have said about them) Roma or Beale Street. Remembering in the time in which AFTRA was not part of SAG and Oscars had 10 or more nominees there were minimum 4 overlaps between ensemble and picture each of those – and when it was 4 the one that missed out was almost always part of the conversation.
Since AFTRA has been part of it (only 4 years) we have had the overlaps get as low as 2 then last year we had our break with what was once a very reliable stat (the ensemble needed to win bp) a year after it almost failing. I know this is a very small sample size but look at the very sharp difference in its predictability the year AFTRA became part of it. I do honestly think AFTRA has had a huge impact on the group and we should be really careful applying our old SAG stats that have been reliable in the past from here (and the past few years) onwards and look at SAG, basically, as an awards show that is a few years old.
I don’t know that I’d exactly call Beale Street “subtle.” It’s a more sophisticated message than something like Green Book and it doesn’t, like, end with a montage of Donald Trump news clips but it’s pretty damn clear about what injustices it wants to address. I would say Roma is pretty subtle though.
I agree with all of this. It’s unclear whether the stat remains strong. We shall see.
Another great summary Sasha. I always wait for the “what does Sasha think” after big nominations drop.
I kick myself for becoming so invested in films getting recognised when I know it’s aboit popularity not qualify. When Bright Star was snubbed (except costumes), when Revenant lost BP, this season with Toni Collette being snubbed. Why do we care? Everyone around us doesn’t!!
On these noms, given it’s a random selection of SAG membership it’s always hard to draw firm conclusions, but I think some races, like supporting actress just look wrong.
And it’s annoying like performances like Robbie pop up out of nowhere when previously recognised performances like Hawke, Hall and Collette get snubbed
Randomly drawing 2000 people isn’t as “random” as you might think. Opinion polls for countries with populations of 60+ million are done with less people. Also, 2000 people are comparable to the Academy membership (8000), at least a lot more than the full SAG-AFTRA membership (100000+)
Question: Has any film won Best Picture without winning an acting, directing, OR screenwriting award? I know Grand Hotel won Best Picture in 1933 from it only being nominated in one category and nothing else. All the King’s Men, Gladiator, and Chicago won Best Picture while losing in directing and screenplay awards, but those films also had at least one ACTING win to back them up. I’m just wondering because if A Star is Born we’re to win Best Picture it would have to win at least another top tier above the line category (acting, directing, or screenwriting).
You say that as if ASIB doesn’t have a pretty solid chance of winning Director, Actor, or Actress.
Rebecca, a rather popular if artistic choice on the preferential ballot in 1940. Much like The Shape of Water though the latter won best director and was pretty clearly always in the top 2.
The Greatest Show on Earth.
Actually, The Greatest Show on Earth won for Best Story which is much like a screenwriting award.
My mistake how about Broadway Melody of 28.
That was one, but the most recent one was Rebecca in 1941. Someone told me in the comments below.
Also Mutiny on the Bounty. That and It happen one Night are the only two great films to win best picture during Oscars early years. Sunrise did win best artistic film at the first Oscars but that category was retired after that. Actually Mutiny was one of the reasons they started Supprting actor the next year. It got three lead actor noms despite one of them Franchon Tone was clearly supporting.
I just wonder, is Bohemian Rhapsody really going to get a Best Picture nomination?
I haven’t seen either BR or Green Book, but given the ‘controversy’ around Green Book (essentially making a win impossible IMO), one has to wonder if there’ll be any arising controversy from Bohemian Rhapsody? I mean, Singer was pretty close pals with Kevin Spacey, and sure, nothing has been set in stone, but the allegations against Singer aren’t great. It’s not great optics for the Oscars if after having had Kevin Hart drop out they go and nominate a problematic directors film for Best Picture.
Mind you, they did just nominate Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge a few years ago so… :shrug:
Is the Singer problem even on the mind of the voters?
The fact that he was replaced (if unofficially) on the film is probably seen as a positive for the film; that a problem was identified and steps were taken to salvage the situation.
Bohemian Rhapsody is not in the running for Director, obviously. Everything else is clearly considered. And I have to say, I’m delighted by these 2 SAG noms, that are really well deserved, even if there’s the snub to a key player (if short in running time)
It’s not, but the optics of Bohemian Rhapsody getting in for Best Picture, and films like Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Leave No Trace missing out, isn’t great.
Granted these are probably things that are low on Oscar voters minds, but it’ll be something they’ll be criticised for sure.
I guess this will be the Year of the Popular Films. Good cinema being left behind will not matter while major news sites celebrate all the blockbusters getting in. What I don’t get is when two years ago there was a perfect opportunity to award a very well reviewed, super popular film in La La Land, they awarded Moonlight, which is pretty much the anti-blockbuster. That’s why I am skeptical about this whole thing. This is the Academy that showered Birdman with Oscars. Will they really go for Black Panther and co. this year?
They don’t care. Bohemian Rhapsody is a box office smash, people sing along during screenings. They even stopped caring about Bryan Singer, so why should they care about the low Metascore or quality?
it’s called Best Picture, it does not mean there are more than one way to judge what a Best Picture is. There’s no other film in 2018 with the only exception of Avengers: Infinity War and A Quiet Place that provocked so many emotions from so many people, and while the latter are a gasp collection, Bohemian Rhapsody was a rush of adrenaline directly to the soul, with not only Freddie Mercury but the whole Queen revived and live on stage. Those 20 final minutes are almost a seal on a Best Picture nom, wether we like it or not. There’ve been plenty of worse Best Picture nominees and winners. If crap like Crash or A Beautiful Mind can win Best Picture, a just good film like Bohemian Rhapsody should sweep in comparison.
Isn’t it now officially the highest grossing biopic of all time?
I don’t know… but it may really well be, already.
“FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION IN ALL CATEGORIES (except director) BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY”
it’s not SERIOUSLY running for Director. I think that was understood right away. They have to add it in the bunch, see what happens…
I don’t think it will, but what happens when it and crazy Rich Asians get PGA nominations? And they have SAG and globe noms?
Crazy Rich Asians is actually the kind of film to get a PGA nomination. Think of it as this year’s The Big Sick or Straight Outta Compton.
There is no Singer problem. He was fired, so people in the industry forgave the movie. And the Average Joe has no idea who Brian Singer is.
Bohemian Rhapsody probably has a super smart publicist because no one has mentioned Singer since the movie came out. There will be some negative reaction to its nominations now but the ship has sailed and the movie will get its Best Picture nomination.
Everybody knows it’s Singer, but everyone pretends they don’t know. Anyway, in Hollywood it is quite rare a director has creative control over the editing, even directing a movie :)) so who knows how responsible he is for the way the movie turned out.
Christoph Waltz wasn’t nominated by SAG for his role in “Django” so this statement: “That is probably why every winner in the supporting category since 2000 has had a SAG nomination” is not true.
His film wasn’t screened to SAG voters so he doesn’t count.
I definitely got some insight into the SAG nominations in 2016 when a family friend was randomly selected to be in the SAG nominating committee. At that point, I hadn’t realized only a small percentage of people actually have a say on the nominations.
We were gathered for a family and friends gathering and she was lugging around a tote bag FULL of screeners. My film loving heart almost died. All these movies yet to be released or have wide releases were all right there! I wanted to just take the bag and watch them all. Anyways, we ended up watching “La La Land” (about a month before it was released) because she said “I wanted to come but I have so many movies to watch! So let’s watch something tonight.” We watched it and I was super impressed by the direction, but my friend in SAG was pretty indifferent. “They were not good singers or dancers at all.” I wondered if that was a sentiment shared by a lot. I asked her if she would nominate it for anything. She said no. “Not much of an ensemble.”
Anyways, it was interesting to me to see how that worked. My friend clearly had a lot of movies to catch up on and as COMPLETELY dependent on her tote bag of screeners. There was no way she was going to nominate something that she didn’t get a screener for. It seemed like the kind of thing she didn’t expect to happen and then was tasked to watch an obscene amount of movies in a short period of time. If a studio didn’t send screeners to the SAG nominating committee (especially if the movie is not out in theaters yet) it has 0% chance of getting any nominations.
Thanks, had long suspected that but makes sense and explains a lot of their picks. Yep, I can totally see some members thinking they’ll go for bigger movies with bigger stars then some small indie with an actress mostly known for TV work. Sad but explains a lot.
Well it definitely explains why 5/5 ensemble picks had been in released for a while (BR being the newest release 1.5 months ago). When you have a bag full of screeners and limited time, you’re inevitably not going to see everything. So, a movie already seen by most of the nominating committee has a strong advantage.
It’s just very different from critics awards. They are handed out by people who see essentially all the movies. Actors and people in the industry may not necessarily see a ton of movies. They are hustling for work. So when you get tasked to nominate movies, you vote for what you’ve seen.
I always felt a reason Marion Cotillard won the Oscar in 2008 was because of the writer’s strike meaning voters actually having the time to watch all the films. Otherwise, can’t see a little known-French actress in a French language film getting as much love.
The weird thing is, we know from the individual categories that they’ve watched The Favourite and Vice, and they still got snubbed in Ensemble.
So I imagine that Netflix is not exactly likely to send out a screener for Roma?
That, I have no clue. Roma has been screened at lots of film festivals, but there’s no reason to think that the majority of the nominating committee had seen it through the festivals.
Netflix is no stranger to the Ensemble category. Beasts of No Nation got in, but that was streaming in October of its year. Netflix is campaigning for Roma, but I don’t know how much they pushed screeners out for it, since it will be on Netflix in approximately 24 hours from now.
Netflix does apparently send physical screeners. They don’t take chances on the old Academy members knowing how to stream things.
You can all blame the Popular Film category for this. I knew Sasha would mention it in her first post SAG piece, and I agree. So many actors and directors did not like the idea of that category it was like they intentionally voted to show Oscar (?) popular films could crack into the top awards to prove a point. Problem is, we always knew those films could, it’s just they are rarely good enough to actually do it. Now they went overboard and it could come back to bite them on the ass.
By the way, I always miss the ensemble nods. Wasn’t The Favourite supposed to be a HEAVY lock for the Win? What happened?
It was definitely one of them. BUT, if any film can make up for lacking the Best Ensemble nom, it would be The Favourite. Much like The Shape of Water (which overcame a no SAG ensemble nom last year), it could wind up being the most nominated film for the Oscars. Costumes, production design, makeup etc. The sky’s the limit. And on top of that, all three individual actresses still were nominated for SAGs, so it’s not like they just didn’t like the film.
Shape of Water recovered from it’s SAG assemble loss cos its Director was always going to win an Oscar …The Favorite may not even get a BD nod
Yeah, I thought it was a big favorite to win it. 🙂 Very funny for it to then just get snubbed…
Someone brought up the smart comment that this time last year, Laurie Metcalf was considered “the sure fave” for the Oscar after Board of Review and such. Then Janney started winning as so many times, we see the frontrunner altered once the awards are actually handed out.
I recall hearing Tom O’Neill mention on a Gold Derby video that Allison Janney was out there doing literally everything for that award. She was even delivering pizza (I don’t recall the context). She worked for that award. Metcalf was exhausted by it all and had no interest in working the circuit. That really affected her chances.
Now, Regina King has the benefit of being a double nominee (TV and film) and will be out doing the media circuit. The question is whether Amy Adams is going to do exactly the same (same boat as King) and whether she wants her first win to be in a supporting category, or whether she’ll wait for a lead win.
I hear Adams has resisted in the past but can think at this point, she’ll want an Oscar period, never mind if it’s supporting or lead so might campaign more.
I feel like this might be an Al Pacino/Scent of a Woman award for Adams. I was rooting hard for Regina King (not that I hate Adams).
I figured it might be Close’s year but who knows, could be both.
I mean if they wanted to Chicago Cubs Amy Adams on her 6th nomination (Chicago Cubs as a verb meaning reward an overdue entity or person after a long drought), why not reward Glenn Close too since she will earn her SEVENTH nomination if she does get in.
Is Glenn Close actually a good actress? Honest question.
Dangerous Liasons, Fatal Attraction, The Big Chill, hell even 101 Dalmatians. Yes.
I like her daffy First Lady in Mars Attacks and her comatose heiress in Reversal of Fortune. How she missed a Supporting Actress nomination in RoF is puzzling.
She’s a great actress. The opening of The Wife shows that. I hope she’s going to win.
Someone needs to see HOOK apparently!
Yes watch any of her movies that she was nominated for especially Dangerous Liaisons. Also her season on the show The Shield.
Folks are saying “King can still win Oscar without a SAG nom.” Problem being, every year, someone tries that with someone. Emmanuelle Riva, Isabelle Hubbert, Sylvester Stallone, folks push them as “likely.” And none of them won.
Indeed, Stallone was considered the major favorite for the Oscar and folks writing off the SAG omission as a fluke…and he loses to SAG winner Rylance. The fact is, it matters majorly given how huge a bloc of the Academy the SAGs members make up. Maybe King has a shot but the brutal fact is, this is a major blow to her chances of the Oscar as historically, even a slight SAG recognition is a prerequisite for the Academy.
Christoph Waltz won an Oscar for Django Unchained after been snubbed by sag jokes, same with Marcia Gay Harden she won the Oscar in 2000 for “Pollock” without the sag joke nomination.
But Waltz not only received a BAFTA nomination for Supporting Actor in 2013, he managed to actually WIN the award that year. So King probably has to get nominated by BAFTA (maybe even outright win Supporting Actress) to revive her chances.
Looks like Amy Adams is the Chicago Cubs/Susan Lucci of 2019.
That’s only two in all of SAG history. Not exactly the best of odds.
Actually that year Idris Elba won the SAG, but it was a BRAND NEW KIND OF THING, because OSCAR was NOT nominating Netflix films yet. Rylance won the BAFTA
My bad. But again, point being that folks thought no SAG nom wouldn’t be a big deal and it was.
That was the #oscarssowhite year. The SAG was making a strong political statement by awarding a POC in many many categories with many surprises, including Elba winning in 2. I don’t think it was really about Netflix.
“Folks are saying “King can still win Oscar without a SAG nom.” Problem being, every year, someone tries that with someone. Emmanuelle Riva, Isabelle Hubbert, Sylvester Stallone, folks push them as “likely.” And none of them won.”
Yeah, this is one of the constants of Oscar season. There’s always one…
I was one of the ones who predicted Rylance. Mostly for this reason.
I´m sure that Rylance always had a much better reputation as a character actor than Stallone. Voting for Stallone would have felt a bit weird for many Academy members. That´s why I predited Rylance, too.
Congrats Emily Blunt.. cannot even be mad even though you’re trampling over some of my favorites….this is your year! She’s doing the “impossible”;)
Since I can’t make sense of any of the SAG picks, I’ll comment about “Wrapped Up”:
When I saw Vox Lux, I thought this is one of the most throwaway Sia songs ever written, fitting right in the middle of This is Acting (which of course perfectly fits the film’s narrative). Now listening to it multiple times on Spotify, I’ve grown confident that it’s one of her best songs ever since her new style kicked in with Chandelier.
Glad you brought this up. I was hooked just by its appearance in the trailer, same as I was Shallow in Star’s trailer. I could not get enough until both songs were finally released. Shallow is clearly getting nominated, but the Globes failed to nominate Wrapped Up. It was just released last Friday, so I don’t know why they waited so long. I fear they may have blown their chance and that would be a pity if for the very least, I would like to see it performed at the Oscars. I’m also a little peeved they didn’t release a Sia sung version. Btw. Have you heard her Christmas album? It’s stellar. Every track. And I’m not even a big fan of hers. Have only heard Chandolier and some old Zero 7 songs.
I’ve heard some songs of her Christmas album and I mostly hated them. :/ A shame, I am a huge fan of Sia’s earlier music (Breathe Me, Soon We’ll Be Found, that kind of stuff) and I like some of her newer hits (like Chandelier) but, while 1000 Forms of Fear was still a good, although relatively uninteresting, pop album, This is Acting was so bland that I kind of lost faith in her for some time. But Wrapped Up is again, not revolutionary, but very well put together. (Although the new song Alive, also from Vox Lux, is again incredibly cheap.)
Well, regardless, I’ll just be happy if Shallow, Wrapped Up and Revelation get nominated and thus, performed at the ceremony. Last year, I was just happy Sufjan Stevens got a nomination even if it was for the wrong song.
SAG help launch Bryan Cranston, Viggo Mortensen for Capatin Fantastic to nominations
and helped get Hidden Figures some serious heat.