The Academy decided to shorten the time frame and the selection for some categories and then reveal the list all at once rather than separately at different times. The biggest change comes in the Original Score and Original Song categories. According to Variety, this was done (in Score) to give some lesser-known names a shot, given that the same names tend to be chosen again and again. Original Score historically has had a shockingly low number of female composers nominated: for instance, when Mica Levi was nominated for “Jackie,” she was the first woman nominated in the category since Rachel Portman for “The Cider House Rules” back in 1999.
One of the reasons Original Score nominations (along with a few other categories like Editing, Cinematography, and Costume Design) are somewhat easier to predict is that you can rely on well-known names or high status industry people to be recognized each year (like Roger Deakins, for instance).
But I was curious — who are the composers on the short list and does that satisfy that hope that it will be diversified a bit?
“Annihilation” — Geoff Barrow and Ben Salisbury (up-and-comers)
“Avengers: Infinity War” — Alan Silvestri (very well-known)
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” — Carter Burwell (very well-known)
“Black Panther” — Ludwig Göransson (up-and-comer)
“BlacKkKlansman” — Terence Blanchard (very well-known)
“Crazy Rich Asians” — Brian Tyler (well-known)
“The Death of Stalin” — Christopher Willis (up-and-comer)
“Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald” — James Newton Howard (very well-known)
“First Man” — Justin Hurwitz (well-known)
“If Beale Street Could Talk” — Nicholas Britell (well-known)
“Isle of Dogs” — Alexandre Desplat (very well-known)
“Mary Poppins Returns” — Marc Shaiman (very well-known)
“A Quiet Place” — Marco Beltrami (well-known)
“Ready Player One” — Alan Silvestri
“Vice” — Nicholas Britell
I am not sure they will accomplish their goal in not choosing well known composers. They still ended up mostly with the well known, or big names, the reason being anyone in those branches will seek out those films to watch because they know the composers. In fact, I would bet that predictions would not shift all that much whether they released this shortlist or not. Those who would predict the category would still predict the big names or the buzziest films. The only big composing name left off from this group of finalists was Hans Zimmer for “Widows.”
A bigger question, in terms of the Oscar race, was asked to me by Awards Circuit’s Clayton Davis on Twitter. How do these lists impact the race overall? My answer is that we can’t really know until we live through it. It’s happened before, according to Variety, for Score and Song:
Interestingly, this is a return to an Academy tradition. From 1950 to 1979, the branch created a shortlist of 10 scores (the exception being 1977, when the list expanded to 23) from which the final five were chosen. The song category did this from 1958 to 1979, choosing 10 songs per year (although, again, 1977 was the exception, choosing only seven pre-finalists).
Here are a few ways I think it COULD impact the race:
1) It gives us an early look at what films we think MIGHT be the “buzziest.” That is, it confirms a few possibilities. For instance, it’s very interesting that both Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman made the short list for Score. Black Panther’s composer Ludwig Göransson spent a month in Africa to authenticate the sound – which is incredible (pictured above). It also shows that, despite the critics, at least for now, Vice is liked enough to like the score. It also shows a wee bit of an inclination to accept Crazy Rich Asians into the fold, which might mean it cracks some of the crafts categories. If, say, First Man’s score had not shown up that would have been telling — but it did show up. And that’s good for the movie.
2) Mary Poppins Returns showed up on the shortlists for Score, Visual Effects and twice in sound, which gives it a big bump. Black Panther is in Score, Visual Effects, and Song. Team Disney has a really good shot at dominating the crafts at least. Although it’s not known whether these films will ultimately crack the top categories, it is looking pretty good at the moment for Black Panther at least.
3) Is this a potential preview of what categories are going to be not shown on the Oscar telecast? The news around the changes coming were sucked up into the popular film category but there isn’t a lot of news out there about which categories will NOT be seen live. Could it be these are the ones they’ll have off screen? We know the shorts will likely not be shown, but what crafts? It’s really hard to imagine that Best Song or Visual Effects won’t be shown, since both are often tied to “popular” films.
4) Does it hurt films that really could have used the bump? I’m not sure. Probably there were a few Best Song contenders who were hoping to have a better shot at making it in. But the other categories? Visual Effects was going to release a short list anyway. I’m not entirely seeing all that much negative effect here. I think, instead, the competition becomes much more fierce in these categories because now they know they REALLY have a shot at a nomination. Imagine, say, if Best Picture was reduced down to 20. Imagine how competitive these 20 would be?
In all of the ways the Oscars have changed, and in all of the ways they will change to adapt to the changing times, the shortlist release, while interesting for sure, doesn’t seem to be all that much of a culture quake. I guess it just makes our jobs a wee bit easier on the predicting side.
I was about to express shock at a lack of John Williams, though a look at the original score nominees from the last 12 years shows that a Williams snub isn’t as rare as it seems. After all, he’s only been nominated a measly six times in the last dozen Oscar ceremonies. 🙂
Poor guy…
Is there a score would he have contended for this year?
Off-topic:
The Favourite: mid-tier Lanthimos, feels almost too safe for him.
(At least in the top 10 of the year, though. Probably even top 5)
I have to say, I’m thrilled that “A place called Slaughter Race” is still in competition… and I hope it gets the nom (that should be a really FUN performance at the ceremony). Sorry, Lady Gaga, but I’d prefer that Ralph breaks the Internet song winning…
That WAS a good song, and one of the more wry Disney send-ups in a long time.
Marc Silvestri and Alan Slvestri might land a nod. My biggest complain in this category was Mad Max Fury Road failing the nomination a few years back
you are so hot
My prediction now is: First Man, Beale Street, Black Panther, Isle Of Dogs and Mary Poppins Returns.
I’d be super thrilled if The Death Of Stalin made it but I don’t believe it for a second. BlacKkKlansman is 6th in my prediction, and it may bump out First Man, I think.
I think MPR is more likely to be bumped than First Man.
I’d also put Buster Scruggs at #7 since they recently started embracing Carter Burwell, & since it showed up on the Score & song shortlist, I do think it may pick up some momentum during screener season.
I’d be worried about The Favourite missing make up
That’s the only really noticeable omission I saw.
I attempted to write about this before the shortlist (the piece is so terrible that I won’t copy it here) but I came to the result that it wasn’t any better back in the 70s for mostly unknown composers getting in, rather very well-known composers just got in for weird movies that didn’t work otherwise with the Academy (Fantastic Beasts is a perfect example of this, a movie that isn’t of notable quality but might get votes after this just because it’s James Newton Howard, something that this shortlist will only emphasize with voters watching it now and thinking: “This is James Newton Howard”)
Marc Shaiman is one O short of an EGOT, despite 5 previous nominations. Would love to see him win!
So happy to see Sorry To Bother You made the song list. It is nothing like past nominees and has been on rotation in my spotify mix since I saw the movie.
Terence Blanchard and Brian Tyler may be “well known”, but neither has an Oscar nomination to his credit. And even some of those composers who seem to have been around forever (Beltrami, Silvestri, Burwell) only have 2 nods each in their entire careers. So while there are a few cited who are quite familiar to the Oscar scene, most are relative newbies to the Academy Awards.
And, if there’s one thing that Spike Lee has been doing as he’s out and about is push the work of Blanchard and the editing by Barry Alexander Brown as they’ve both never been nominated. Hopefully that’ll push them up for a nom, and in turn, add to BlacKkKlansman’s total.
BKKKM’s editing should be a lock, trust me. And probably the frontrunner for the win… I insist, while right now it does not seem like this, this is the film to beat… politics will play a factor in the race and the film that benefits the most is BKKKM (politically anti-trump, never an african american won director, never an african-american film won Picture AND Director, Film Editing has always been a strenght of Lee’s film and is an Oscar that correlates a lot to Best Picture, the film is one of the frontrunners for Adapted… etc.). The film that has the 2nd best narrative for the final win, is Roma (personal, a masterpiece, never a foreign language film won Best Picture, a lock in cinematography… still it would be a 2nd Best Director Oscar for Cuaron in less than a decade, and Cuaron is going to win both Foreign Film – even thought he won’t be the recipient – and Cinematography, so no need to give him anything else beyond, maybe Original Screenplay which he will share with hi brother). A Star is Born is the 3rd main competitor for Best Picture and still the hurdles are too big: 4th version of an iteration of the myth of Pygmalion, which already won Best Picture with “My Fair Lady”, and it is a film that has obvious pacing problems (too rushed to an abrupt ending, Cooper’s character is basically one note and over the top), so they can give it Actor, Supporting Actor and Song and call it a day… 3 Oscars to its 3 leads who are the highlight and that’s it. I never bet but I would say that…
BKKKM: Picture, Director, Adapted, Film Editing
Roma: Foreign Film, Original, Cinematography
A Star is Born: Actor, Supp. Actor, Song
The Favourite: Costume, Production Design
Black Panther: Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Green Book: thank you for coming, it’s been nice to see you here
Vice: Supp. Actress, Make Up
The Wife: Actress
I like the way you think, but I’m not convinced Sam Elliott is getting supporting actor. Nor do I think Mahershala is getting it. I’ve got Richard E. Grant all the way on that one. Otherwise, I can see what you’ve said playing out.
I love Elliott but I would prefer Grant winning. But reality check: Elliott is Hollywood, Grant is Pinewood. Elliott is running for a Best Picture frontrunner, Grant is running for a Best Picture longshot. I can see Driver winning over both, if they go BKKKM all the way, but Elliott has half the Oscar in the bag. I think it’s going to end Cooper/Close/Elliott/Adams, even thought neither of these races is still clear. SAG and GG will define who’s in the lead.
I don’t know about the Hollywood vs. Pinewood argument. Pinewood defeated Hollywood in the Rylance vs. Stallone race. The benefits of being a nominee in a nominated BP is that your film will be more guaranteed watched and thus boosting your exposure and chances. And yes, Elliot is in a frontrunner BP, but if CYEFM earns several key noms like Actress and Screenplay, the movie will also be widely viewed among members. And Grant is essentially co-lead, whereas Elliot’s role is an afterthought.
Best Supporting Actor category tends to be reserved for esteemed, crafty, character actors — not faded movie stars (Stallone and Burt Reynolds went home empty-handed). Elliott is a solid actor, but I don’t think he’s considered a character actor.
I have been extremely skeptical of Blackkklansman’s chances for a while, but it’s clearly tracking to get at least 7-8 nominations and definitely can snake the win as the compromise candidate between Roma and ASIB
I count it only as locked in Picture, Director, Adapted and Film Editing, and then as possible nominee for Supporting, Score, Cinematography, Costume, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. An Actor moment would almost warrant a Best Picture win, and if Grace scores a surprise second Supporting nom, we got a Best Picture winner locked. I think it is the film with bigger arguments in favour, but weirder things have happened
I referred as locked NOMS
Honestly I think it gets the acting nods to match SAG.
Which 7-8 nominations are you referring to for BlacKkKlansman? It’s been overperforming (and I’ve always thought Lee had a decent shot for Director), but…
“Locks”:
Picture
Adapted Screenplay
Likely:
Director
Supporting Actor
Possible:
Actor
Editing
Score
Having seen Roma, I just don’t think it’s winning BP. Ever. It doesn’t fit the pattern of winners at all. The only argument it has is the changing membership, but I don’t think that should be enough. Their winners haven’t changed THAT much.
Of course, I could just be misinterpreting their probable reaction to it. But this is what I believe right now.
Silvestri and Burwell may not be the most nominated, but they’re Coens and Spielberg/Zemeckis people. They’ll always be assured a listen and potentially a spot.
Shocked that Suspiria’s score didn’t make the shortlist, especially after all of the buzz surrounding it. Also disappointed that Hereditary and Upgrade (two of my personal favorites) were also left out. Happy that Annihilation is still a possibility. The film was also one of my favorites and I’d love to see it nominated for SOMETHING.
Maybe Suspiria’s score had eligibility issues like his Radiohead compatriot Johnny Greenwood did with There Will Be Blood.
Perhaps that was it. Haven’t heard anything to that effect, though.
Equally surprised Suspiria didn’t break into score given the song was shortlisted.
The Suspiria score had big shoes to fill and for me it came up very short. But yes, where the FRACK is Colin Stetson (Hereditary). To misquote the great Penny Marshall, “These things just (score) themselves.” I am quite riled! Do they HAVE to adhere to these ridiculous shortlists?
Annihilation is easily my favorite score of the year. That doppelganger scene alone provides such an epic and haunting use of music to win the whole thing. I think that nomination just became my biggest hope for Oscar nom morning.
And I agree, Suspiria absolutely deserved to be on the shortlist as well. At least it has a legitimate shot at makeup/hairstyling (Tilda Swinton is apparently that category’s good luck charm! ha)
Fingers (and toes) crossed.