How we think about the Oscar race has, in many ways, remained the same for decades. Conventional wisdom says that the following commandments are mostly true:
- Oscar movies come out in December.
- The film with the most nominations wins.
- The director is King (or Queen).
However, none of these things are true. In fact, December is one of the worst times to guide a film to a Best Picture win, as recent history shows. The film with the most nominations almost never wins anymore and the director has been effectively, for the most part, been surgically removed from the Best Picture calculus half of the time.
We can add one more recently regarded rule — that there are ten films up for Best Picture. It really isn’t true that there are ten. There were ten in 2009 and 2010, when voters could choose ten to nominate. But in 2011 and thereafter, voters choose five films as best of the year. That narrows the tastes, flavors, and genres significantly — or at least that’s what we’ve been seeing over the past few years.
This year will be a rule breaker because of the various forces at play that aren’t usually at play, those being:
- Fear of extinction. Adapt or die — accept popular films or suffer the humiliation of a separate category for them in an effort to drive up viewership that was at an all-time low last year.
- An unprecedented number of black filmmakers in a kind of new wave that is front and center this year and will inform choices.
- Donald Trump, #MeToo, and a divided country that has put Trump on one side, Hollywood on the other. Are the Oscars required to be political? Does it mean that no one feels really excited about white male heroes until he’s out of office.
- The Netflix factor. Roma is putting this one to the test in a big way. Remember, even nominations for Roma in the major categories like Best Picture and Director is a big deal for the Netflix revolution. With Marty Scorsese on deck next year, one figures that the future has arrived on Oscar’s doorstep. Crowding them out on one side with superhero franchise movies and on the other side with the threat of streaming.
- And finally, the notorious and hard to predict “new members” who were seemingly plucked off the sidewalks of Hollywood to help diversify membership. The Oscars have been much easier to predict all of these years because their demo has mostly been the same: white, middle-aged men. Or, as one person once put it, “your typical Eagles fan.” New members aren’t that (and are deliberately NOT that), but that means we have no earthly clue how they’re going to vote except to say that, by and large, a consensus does what a consensus does. Polls tend to work because people tend to think the same way when formed into large groups. A consensus vote does not support individualized tastes, in other words — it defaults to the most common denominator.
That is your primer. The thing to know about this year, and any year going forward, is that the crafts are some of the most competitive categories. The reason being in prior years films that weren’t considered serious enough or good enough or too genre-y would be automatically relegated to the crafts. In order to be a nominations leader, you need those craft nominations. The sweeping Oscar epic of yesteryear was that movie that swept all of the categories from top to bottom, not missing a single one.
With big effects films more common than the straight up prestige pics, to be the nominations leader you really have to be both, like La La Land, like Gravity. Think Lord of the Rings trilogy. This was the norm in the past where it was mostly easier to call Best Picture by how many nominations a film received. It wasn’t always true, of course — sometimes the films with the most nominations went home with nothing. In the days before the preferential ballot, however, it helped to have broad, passionate support: if every branch LOVES a movie enough to nominate it, it seems to indicate that a win would be the logical next step. But with the preferential ballot, it doesn’t quite work like that anymore. Sure, it still helps to have broad support across all guilds, but it isn’t strictly a requirement to be the nominations leader. In fact, it almost seems like having the most nominations hurts it under this system.
It should be said that neither the Globes nor the BAFTAs, nor the WGA, DGA, or SAG use the preferential ballot — only the PGA and the Academy do.
Let’s look at which films, if any, were the nomination leaders and won in the era of the expanded ballot:
2009
The Hurt Locker — 9 nominations, won six, including Best Picture
Avatar — 9, won three
2010
The King’s Speech — 12, won four, including Best Picture and Best Director
2011
Hugo — 11, won five
The Artist — 10, won five, including Best Picture
2012
Lincoln — 12, won two
Life of Pi — 11, won four, including Best Director
Les Miserables — 8, won three
Argo — 7, won three, including Best Picture
2013
Gravity — 10, won seven, including Best Director
American Hustle — 10, won zero
12 Years a Slave — 9, won three, including Best Picture
2014
Birdman — 9, won four, including Best Picture
Grand Budapest Hotel — 9, won four
2015
The Revenant — 12, won three, including Best Director
Mad Max: Fury Road — 10, won six
The Martian — 7, won zero
Spotlight — 6, won two, including Best Picture
2016
La La Land — 14, won six, including Best Director
Moonlight — 8, won three, including Best Picture
2017
The Shape of Water — 13, won four, including Best Picture and Best Director
You see that unless you count films that tied with another film for the most nominations, it isn’t all that common that the nomination leader is necessarily the favorite to win. It COULD BE, but it just as easily couldn’t.
When it turned out that The Favourite was the nominations leader at the Critics Choice, a few people jumped to the conclusion that somehow that meant it was going to sweep. Well, we know that won’t be true, at least not at the Critics Choice.
Here are a few films I THINK could lead the nominations, depending on how it goes. It seems clear that there is a full speed ahead thinking when it comes to both Black Panther AND Roma, despite their inherent problems of one being a superhero movie and one being a Netflix movie. It does not seem to be hindering any sort of predictions at the moment. Black Panther could become the nominations leader if it gets nominations in writing, directing, maybe acting. But if it stays in the crafts and just lands Best Picture it can’t and won’t lead the nominations.
Here is a potential rundown and most likely scenario for Black Panther with 11:
Picture
Cinematography
Editing
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Production Design
Visual Effects
Costumes
Score
Song
Hair and Makeup
If we add even Best Director we get 12. That’s pretty good, but you can see that some acting or writing here would help boost it as the nominations leader. Now, can The Favourite get there?
Picture
Director (maybe)
Screenplay
Actress
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actress
Editing
Costume
Production Design
Cinematography
Hair and Makeup
In a different kind of Oscar race, one where First Man fared well, it would most definitely lead the nominations with:
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actor
Supporting Actress
Editing
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Visual Effects
Production Design
Cinematography
Score
That would be a cool 12 noms and easily hoist it to the top of the pile. But we just don’t know how this movie is going to land. It certainly deserves nominations in all of those categories but it didn’t get there with SAG and didn’t really land with the Globes. The Critics Choice liked it but we don’t know what the bigger guilds are going to do with this year’s grand epic.
What can A Star Is Born do? Can it lead the nominations?
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actor
Sound Mixing
Cinematography
Editing
Song
It could land with 10 and still be the leader. It just depends on what else lands.
What you’re looking for with the nominations leader, most of the time, is that branch by branch support that starts the crafts up through writing, acting, directing. It seems we have many different possible scenarios of how that might go. Heck, even Roma could do it, if it can crack any of the acting categories.
Here we go with current predictions, such as they are:
Best Picture
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Roma
BlacKKKlansman
Green Book
The Favourite
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Reformed
Contenders
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
8th Grade
A Quiet Place
Can You Ever Forgive Me
Leave No Trace
Best Actor
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Contenders:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Contenders
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Viola Davis, Widows
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Charlize Theron, Tully
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Contenders
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Michael B. Jordan. Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Contenders
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Contenders
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Adam McKay, Vice
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Original Screenplay
First Reformed — Paul Schrader
Green Book — Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly
Roma — Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite — Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Eighth Grade — Bo Burnham
Contenders
Vice — Adam McKay
Sorry to Bother You — Boots Riley
Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman — Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee
A Star Is Born — Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters
If Beale Street Could Talk — Barry Jenkins
Can You Ever Forgive Me — Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
First Man — Josh Singer
Contenders
Ryan Coogler — Black Panther
Widows — Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen
Leave No Trace — Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini
Cinematography
Roma
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
First Man
The Favourite
Editing
Black Panther
Roma
A Star Is Born
First Man
The Favourite
Contenders
Vice
Green Book
Can You Ever Forgive Me
BlackKklansman
The Front Runner
Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Sound Mixing
A Star Is Born
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Sound Editing
Black Panther
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Costume Design
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Avengers: Infinity War
Original Score
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Isle of Dogs
If Beale Street Could Talk
Original Song
Shallow — A Star Is Born
I’ll Fight — RBG
The Place Where Lost Things Go — Mary Poppins Returns
Girl in the Movies — Dumplin’
Revelation — Boy Erased
Makeup and Hair
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther
Vice
Mary Queen of Scots
Stan and Ollie
Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Minding the Gap
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Contenders
Free Solo
Charm City
Communion
Crime + Punishment
Dark Money
The Distant Barking of Dogs
Of Fathers and Sons
On Her Shoulders
Shirkers
The Silence of Others
Foreign Language Feature
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)
So if it goes this way, the nominations would be:
A Star Is Born — 11
Black Panther — 10
First Man — 10
The Favourite — 9
Roma — 8
Maybe it goes that way, maybe it doesn’t, but it’s an interesting way to look at the race all the same.