The Broadcast Film Critics won my heart this year by being the only major group to acknowledge what is by far one of the best films of the year, First Man, in their Best Picture lineup. To that end, I will keep my usually snarky comments about them being a snake eating its own tail to myself this year. I bow down to their good judgment and greatness that they, and only they, could see beyond the silliness of judging a film that wasn’t patriotic enough for Americans or Gravity-enough for dudebro film nerds. We First Man fans have this last moment and this last moment only to be excited about the film being celebrated as a deserved nominee.
Let’s start with what we know about the Critics’ Choice Awards. They are decided by roughly 300 or so critics — well, they call themselves critics but they have a much broader reach than that. In fact, many of them are the most prominent Oscar bloggers, truth be told. They ARE the industry they cover. They pushed their date up a wee bit to become more influencers than predictors of the Oscars, maybe having their TV show appear before awards fatigue sets in. By the time the Oscars roll around, people are sick of awards shows. That’s one of their biggest problems, especially when the same people win every time. Most people out there in the world are not paying attention to the tiny little bubble we call the Oscar race. They might turn in to watch the show if celebrities turn out. These days, all celebrities turn out for all awards shows big and small.
And indeed, Oscar ballots are still outstanding, which means that these awards could push a few titles their way. It’s not beyond all comprehension, even if the reach isn’t quite what the Golden Globes are.
There probably is zero chance anyone but Alfonso Cuaron will win for Best Director. Best Actor likewise seems locked for Christian Bale, although there’s always the outside chance that they will pick Bradley Cooper. They really like The Favourite, and that could mean Olivia Colman – and not Lady Gaga or Glenn Close could win there for Best Actress. We still don’t know if Best Actress is locked and loaded or if it’s wide open. We need the SAG for that.
Regina King will win Supporting Actress for If Beale Street Could Talk, though there is always the tiny possibility it could go Amy Adams’ way. Supporting Actor might go to Mahershala Ali, although the uproar over Green Book might prevent that from happening (which is ironic, doncha think?). The screenplay awards are also up in the air at this juncture, as is just about everything else relating to this year’s Oscar race.
Probably BlacKkKlansman is going to win in Adapted Screenplay (just a hunch), while Original could go to The Favourite or maybe First Reformed or Vice or even Eighth Grade.
And that will leave us with Best Picture, and honestly, I feel like at this stage they’re going to give it Roma. They have no obstacles preventing them from choosing Roma — it is by far the overwhelming choice of critics. There are only 300 of them and probably most will be voting for Roma. The second option here would obviously be A Star Is Born, which could pick up some momentum heading into the ballot deadline for the Academy.
Here are our predictions in the major categories:
Roma — Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores, Ryan Adams
The Favourite — Jazz Tangcay
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma — Stone, Flores, Adams
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman — Tangcay
Christian Bale, Vice — Stone, Flores
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed — Tangcay, Adams
Olivia Colman, The Favourite — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
Glenn Close, The Wife — Adams
Best Supporting Actor
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me — Flores, Tangcay
Mahershala Ali, Green Book — Stone, Adams
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk — Stone, Flores, Tangcay, Adams
If Beale Street Could Talk — Flores, Tangcay
BlacKkKlansman — Stone, Adams
The Favourite — Flores, Tangcay
First Reformed — Stone, Adams