Outstanding Producer of Feature Theatrical Motion Pictures
- Green Book
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
- Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television – Comedy
- The Americans
Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television – Comedy
- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Outstanding Producer of Limited Series Television:
- The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Outstanding Producer of Streaming Motion Picture:
- Fahrenheit 451
Outstanding Producer of Competition Television
- RuPaul’s Drag Race
Outstanding Producer of Non-Fiction Television
- Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown
Outstanding Producer of Live Talk Television
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Outstanding Short-Form Program
- Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee
Outstanding Sports Program
- Being Serena
Outstanding Children’s Program
- Sesame Street
“Green Book” won the PGA and on no less than the preferential ballot. Who would’ve thank it? They really must like it. I don’t think it will make its Oscar chances that much better. What could change that, though, is if it won the WGA or Farrelly somehow won the DGA. The actors are not in love with it, not least because it is really a double hander. I also tend to think the PGA is by far the academy which exhibits traits of Oscar past while the DGA is goes for more artistic and daring films and the actors for popular films. SAG will not back up its choice and it doesn’t seem like DGA will either. It is all left with the WGA. I am not sure on this because the biggest competition aren’t there. However, my instinct is that they will try to avoid it. It’s really not a great screenplay and they have better choices even if TF and FR aren’t there.
Weird thing is, just before I looked at the result I thought about GB winning the PGA. I hadn’t even thought that it could win at any stage except just before I checked the result. And it did win. Weird.
The WGA win seems VERY important for Green Book, indeed, is all I’m going to say… Perhaps crucial.
I haven’t seen Green Book and I certainly don’t have a dog in the PGA fight, but in a way t’s positive that it won last night. This proves that the external dirty campaign didn’t hurt it. It might have even helped it? I don’t mind if there’s a backlash that relates to the content of a film, but the personal smearing tactics have got to be discouraged.
First of all, the accusations against Farelly and Villelonga is not disputed. How are they smear tactics when they actually did the things they are accused of?
I don’t mind a backlash against any film or any individual. I think people are responsible for their actions and should pay a price their actions. That’s how life works. Why should some people get a special treatment?
I think the issue here is more about the organisation bestowing the award than the person receiving the award. When you award someone they represent you. The award represents your values and the face you want to present to the world. I am talking here in general terms. But if the Academy thinks there is nothing wrong with awarding its most prestigious award to disreputable character, then it should. It’s all fine. Give your awards to Weinstein, Allen, Polanski, C. Affleck and Gibson. But it should accept that is what it represents. You don’t think they think about these things? They have always thought about them and it is one of the reasons that they have given BP to certain films or Oscar-y type films. Just as they have genre bias, they also have bias towards particular social or political films. For example, did “Moonlight” BP win have something to do with not just what a great film it was but the fact that homosexuality was much more normalised during the Obama years? Is it a coincidence that its win came after the extraordinary judgement by SCOTUS in 2014 on equal marriage? That’s eight after they Crashed “Brokeback Mountain” Oscar win. Is it coincidence that the first films by about black t win BP came during the first black president? Kathryn Bigelow and the domination of foreign (mostly Mexican) directors came during the Obama years too. It was an era of great change in many ways.
Don’t think these people are not smart; they are very smart. GB is not of this era of progressivism; it’s of a bygone era and it represent an illusion of a past that never existed. I mean, I don’t have to tell you. Just ask the family of Don Shirley.
Drag Race is cleaning up this year!
Happy for Green Book and Versace
After the Golden Globes, I proposed a question and scenario and got a lot of push backs (specifically about Green Book). So I’ll ask the exact same question again… What if the following films win the Best Picture in the following awards…
Critic’s Choice: ROMA
PGA: Green Book
BAFTA: The Favourite
Which film will be the favorite to win BP at the Oscars? Can a different film, like ASiB, win it?
Yes to the second question. Can’t answer the first. It depends on many other things which I’ve banned myself from discussing anyway.
Why have you banned yourself from discussing stuff?
Long story. Wasn’t happy with how stressed out I was last season about getting BP right (which I didn’t). Decided this was the best way to eliminate that pressure. Made a big post about it, right after the Oscars… (Still very much liking that decision.)
Can we now officially consider Green Book a co-frontrunner, alongside with Roma and ASiB?
Absolutely. How can the PGA winner ever NOT be at least a co-frontrunner? 🙂
O.K., I guess there are some scenarios where that could be the case – but this year’s situation isn’t one of them. Yet.
Not a co-frontrunner or anything approaching it. It could just be a PGA thing which tends to happen sometimes. It is now getting close for second but would really need the WGA at least if not a complete shock win at the DGA.
But we know how you win Best Picture: #1s, #2s, #3s. Does ASIB have them?
To me A Star is Born seems like a number one film or a number 10 film like la-la-land might have been.
The film that wins the DGA or the WGA will most likely. It depends on those two guilds
I’d say it comes down to the least controversial choice where the disparate constituencies of AMPAS can meet in the middle. Are there enough people upset enough about Green Book to rank it low enough? ASIB seems too “safe”. Favourite or Roma seem like enough of an updated “edgier” version of standard films (like Shape of Water last year). The other option s seem to be a bridge too far (Black Panther), too controversial critics wise (Vice) or too “the award is in the nomination if it happens” (Boho, Beale…) Klansman is a possibility but it needed to show more love in the guilds. My two cents.
Before the awards season heightened its profile, Green Book was mildly received at the box office and was only a lukewarm critical success. At best, people thought it was a pleasant time at the movies, a fun road trip movie that efficiently solves racism within its two hours, a charming little fantasy for our current times. It made few critics lists and was mostly overshadowed by more crowd-pleasing fare.
Now that its ascent to Best Picture becomes more assured, did GB suddenly become great or are its victories based on non-aesthetic factors? Backlash to a hate campaign or a desire for a ‘middle of the road’ standard bearer? Is ‘Green Book’ no better or worse than Argo, Birdman, The King’s Speech and Slumdog Millionaire (films which won BP at PGAs and the Oscars)?
I mean seriously — how does one — as a producer — look at a ballot that contains ‘Roma’ then decide “No, Green Book is definitely better than Roma.” If you were to look at the PGAs, as many do, as a reward for box office success, that makes GB even less plausible.
“People thought it was a pleasant time at the movies, a fun road trip movie that efficiently solves racism within its two hours, a charming little fantasy for our current times.”
You answered your own question there.
I am sorry, but I am not comprehending anything you wrote here.
Green Book started off as a major Best Picture player, thanks to the Toronto Film Festival. The buzz got even bigger when it won the National Board of Review Best Picture award, and nabbed picture, director, screenplay, and double acting nominations from the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards.
Critical-wise, the film has a 94/100 score according to the Broadcast Film Critics site. That’s the highest rating among the best picture contenders.
Rotten Tomatoes.com has the film with an 82% approval rating and a 7.6/10 critical mean. On Metacritic,com, it has a 70/100 score, which is considered generally favorable review.
You point to the box-office, but that’s another problematic statement too. Green Book is largely an independent, low-budget production. It has never been released in more than 1,181 theaters, yet its already grossed about 40 million dollars on a 23 million dollar budget.
In short, you’re ignoring the fact that the Toronto Film Festival buzz made it a major player.
As for your last statement, I don’t know what to say. We’re talking about a subjective system. Producers have every right to feel the way they do about any film. It just so happens the Producer’s Guild branch liked Green Book the best.
An independent film distributed by Universal?
Universal picked it up for distribution. But it was independently produced and financed at the outset.
interesting
Out of curiousity: if you were the ASIB PR team, what strategy/narrative would you play with or put forth at this stage, having won nothing so far?
I’d probably try to keep flying under the radar (that won’t be hard at this point) and try to shoot down Green Book and Roma as heavily as possible. Drum up the Green Book controversy, put out some articles on how Netflix is destroying Hollywood. A Star is Born is still the natural winner if both of those films stumble.
Ah this point, wouldn’t a smear campaign no longer be as effective (it didn’t work for Green Book)? I wonder if they can devise a narrative around their film, rather than focus on the perceived “weaknesses” of the others
This incorporates a lot of my subjective opinion, but I don’t think A Star is Born is good enough for them to push a narrative about its merits. It looks better if people don’t start thinking about it too much. However, Roma might actually go for a campaign about how much “better” it is than Green Book.
I agree with you that it honestly shouldn’t be a strong contender to begin with, and it has taken the spotlight away from more deserving films.
“We’re happy to be everyone’s second choice.”
Haha good one! Sometimes I can’t help but think though that ASIB is more divisive than we think.
If the Gold Derby people are to be believed, then it is floating between #1 and #2. I wonder if that also is the case with the massive AMPAS Voting group or it would be more of a #4 or #5
Just to quote what Jamie Teller wrote in the linked page on the comments below: “Will the fourth time be the charm?”
“Bradley Cooper has had and will have a rich, profitable and creative future as an actor, director, producer and writer ahead of him, like his idols Clint Eastwood, Robert Redford, Ron Howard and Warren Beatty, to name a few. So much more to come from Bradley. In 2018, Cooper was been widely recognized for his great, award-worthy work on ASIB.”
Wouldn’t that somehow imply though that his best work is still ahead of him and should be rewarded some other time?
It’s also probably very dangerous putting him in the same sentence as Eastwood or Redford.
Part of me feels they’ve played their campaign cards way too early and they’re suffering for it now.
If I were doing his PR, I would recognize his ASIB success in box office and nominations, but not set the bar too high for wins beyond song. I would stress this is a phenomenal achievement for a first-time director and with his great talents, he’ll have many more years to produce great works of art 9 (whether they win awards or not). Keep it positive and on Cooper’s successes and future – so all great scripts and offer go to him vs other directors. The PR strategy is not about ASIB award wins at this point, but rather Cooper’s bright future.
“Next time we’ll make a better film”
So many feelings and thoughts.
Firstly and foremost, the film is beloved. Yes, it is mired in controversy. But people outside of the cinephile, woke-topia bubble don’t know or don’t care about the controversies.
Green Book is a superbly acted, well-meaning, well crafted film. Great screenplay? Nope. Clunky dialogue. Nothing truly fresh or unique in the script. It does not do full justice to the Shirley story. But there’s plenty of “good” in it. And it “works”. Everyone I speak to who has SEEN it, loves it. Maybe it’s the year of the popular film, after all.
I just think that this has been THE “crowdpleaser” for those who have SEEN it since October (all those festival wins). It’s up to $42 million at the box office now and you can bet there will be a hefty re-expansion now after PGA and Oscar noms.
All this said, I don’t think Green Book wins the Best Picture Oscar. It doesn’t really fit the mold of the type of winners lately and, there will be more take-downs than ever.
So. What WILL win Best Picture at the Oscars?
-Roma – with just BFCA and a possible BAFTA plurality win? Even The Favourite is favored there.
-A Star is Born – which will go winless leading up to the Oscars?
-Blackkklansman – which will also go winless leading up to the Oscars?
-Black Panther – “woke” voters (and this goes for the public, too) might think they’re backing a film that’s a socio-political/cultural phenomenon — but really, they just enjoyed a well done superhero movie.
I just think that Roma will still struggle on a preferential ballot because of the foreign and Netflix elements. Despite oodles of craft and adoration for Cuaron, a portion (could be more than we think) of voters (and many of the public, I’m sure) will either find Roma too boring or “not their thing”.
Many people are looking towards Blackkklansman being THAT movie to prevail in the end. the “Spotlight” (Best Pic win, Screenplay win). But is it assured Screenplay? And Blackkklansman hasn’t even been the critical darling that Spotlight was.
Tough times. Is it realllllllllllly going to be Green Book winning despite or in spite of the controversy? Will it just be Roma based on sheer will of the new and/or higher brow voting body?
Whewwwww, we’re in for one interesting month.
Only Braveheart (in the first SAG Awards) won Oscar BP without any SAG nomination (individual award, Ensemble or both). It has been 13 years, where every BP winner was nominated for a SAG Awards. Very slim chance Roma can overcome those odds/stats, as we saw with pref ballot at PGA.
BlacKkKlansman surely doesn’t have the techs to win?
The fifth slot in Best Director is giving me headaches. With Green Book winning PGA, I think Farrelly is safe. So McKay would be the one to get the boot. But who the hell replaces him???
Lanthimos would be a very Directors’ Branch pick. Very out there stylistically, acclaimed indie director, he’s a previous nominee (for Screenplay) and with the movie that will get many tech nods. But I just don’t feel him as likely. I know it’s just a hunch, but still…
Jenkins is a previous nominee in a critically acclaimed film that didn’t garner enough guild support. Beale Street’s Best Picture chances are grim, and even below-the-line support seems very shaky (Score and then what???). It would have to really overperform to happen in Best Picture, let alone Best Director.
Pawlikowski is a real threat because it’s the type of pick that makes the Directors’ Branch stand out, especially if they perceived that the Academy is going for nostalgia and popularity. Cold War is a magnificent movie and it has the Cannes and BAFTA approval. It would totally make sense… if Cuaron wasn’t the frontrunner for the win. Which is why I’m still skeptical.
Chazelle is the enfant prodige of American cinema. He made a musical that looked like a thriller (Whiplash) that won 3 Oscars; he made an old-fashioned musical that brought the genre back to mass appeal; he challenged himself with the biopic of one of the biggest American icons of the 20th century, receiving critical acclaim and sparking an idiotic controversy for not being “patriotic enough” for the GOP. The movie will get a slew a tech nominations and there’s vocal support in the press. Recently, even Christopher Nolan voiced his admiration for the movie and Chazelle.
That is why I’m pondering a Chazelle prediction. It sounds absurd on paper given how hit and miss First Man has been so far, but who expected Mel Gibson two years ago?
There’s a fifth possibility, imo: that the Academy confirms the DGA 5. It hasn’t happened in ages, and given the scattered race for the 5th slot, I wouldn’t be surprised if we got the same nominees.
Oh swell… thanks for making me have to rethink my picks again…
Chazelle is not that outlandish a prediction at all. (I have him in 8th, the last one plausible.) And you’re right that the DGA 5 just repeating is probably not a bad prediction this particular year, after all. Although it does FEEL like McKay misses…
It’s Lanthimos. Don’t overthink it. 🙂
does anyone here think green book actually deserves to win best original screenplay?
I havent seen it so I have no opinion.
I thought the script was very strong, especially compared to others out there (it’s no CMBYN, more Spotlight). It won Globes screenplay when it wasn’t broken out into Adapted and Original. Can’t see it not winning.
remember those days when movies like “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” or “Her” or “Fargo” would win Best Original Screenplay? Well this year ain’t one of them.
add to that best screenplay this decade: Sorkins “The Social Network”.
Not original but still an amazing example
Oh he was only talking about original? did read that. .
All examples of great screenplays and well-deserved wins. Lost in Translation, Talk to Her, and Almost Famous are also fantastic. But we’re going back a long way.
“Los in Translation” is a bit iffy. I mean great directing and especially great lead performances by Murray and Johansson but the screenplay does have some issues.
I like it a lot, yet I definitely don’t think it deserves that one.
Yes. It’s my win for 2018. It’s an achievement in writing. He’s got great characters, dialog, and lots of symbolism.
It’s Green Book (Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor) vs Roma (Directing) vs BlacKkKlansman (Adapted Screenplay) vs Vice (Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress)
Oh wow! A TIE for Original Screenplay?!
That would be a first.
No. What I meant there is either both of them could win it. When WGA announces their winners, I’ll erase one of them out.
I think you’re over-rating Vice’s chances (with all those wins).
I wouldn’t rule out Viggo’s chances at SAG.
I would love it if he won. He or Cooper would be great. However, his performances wasn’t that great and he was playing a typical Italian slob. It’s still better than other impersonations by Bale and Malek.
Mortensen had a ton of emotional range as an actor in the film. He gained equal amounts of weight as Bale did. Bale had no range. I didn’t take Malek serious in that role.
Yeah, I would give him the award over those, without a doubt.
It’s not really a win wins. Those are just strong possibilities.
Does anyone know who decides the Foreign Language nominees if all categories are determined by the votes of people in that branch?
Another question: Is someone like Clint Eastwood in multiple branches because he has multiple professions?
On question 2 I believe the answer is “no.” People have to pick a branch and roll with it. For example I believe Sofia Coppola has opted to be in the writer’s branch instead of the director’s branch, not sure if they can switch after the fact or not.
Question one is a little harder because they change the rules all the time. I think strictly speaking there is no foreign language branch and the people who vote for it are whoever wants to volunteer be on the committee and take the time to watch all the nominees.
I believe that if you are in the union (active membership), you can vote in their guild awards. There are many SAG (voting) actors who also vote in PGA as members (seems like every actor is a producer these days as part of their financial packages/incentives….)
That’s the case for the guild awards, I had assumed the question was about branches in the Academy.
Well, it makes sense she won for writing instead of director.
Thank you
Oh definitely not against ” green book” winning reasons outlined before in past posts here why in rating comparison from my first preference to last for possible Oscar contenders .
1. Black Panther
2. First Man
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Green Book ( PGA winner)
5. Blackkklansman
6. The favourite
7. A star is born
8. Roma
I predict tomoz 8 best picture contenders but really should always be 10 each year just messes up structure and increases chance of blockbuster critically acclaimed film failing make cut ( all Oscars fault frankly as it stands)
Want point it breaking down my rankings can be sorted 2 categories. Blockbuster critically acclaimed and/ or Event films and most interestingly societal themed dramas .
But interestingly by my own admission look at film comes out no. 1 in my last splitting between w2 categories .
1. Green Book
2. Blackkklansman
3. Roma
That right on basis that sensible mature semi light equally dramatic credible rational conversation chronicled through saga btw two central characters is indeed refreshing to bombastic in your face rqm down your throat approach past Oscar winners. Would green book be one finest Oscar winners in a decade? Certainly what about millennium ? For me just outside top 10 still for me many others based what I hearing fact rivals smearing it in press etc tells me they fear civil rational tale that tells me could be most significant civil film about raciql matters that our world needs Hollywood produced in years.
No guilt tripping (” what i hated bout 12 years and Crash “) just civil entertaining insightful look atisdue through two lead actors perspective boy is that good antidote even if it not best path Oscar ( embrace black panther or first man for crying out loud ) but whole let better common sense with public than Roma or ASIB or even the favourite
Not bad not bad but there a sense of inevitability two levels: 1.. ASIB no longer frontrunner fallen back in the pack still no guild awards in major categories for it not good signs for it thank goodness common sense this far we see next guilds hands reveal.
2. If indeed they go for deeply effective but in end of day yet ANOTHER societal drama in Green Book for best PIC many believe far far safer option for Oscar to embrace …but if they embrace it air inevitability grow stronger question on everyone’s lips: when is fiction/ superhero / event/ blockbuster movie of genre type that academy will loomg long overdue embrace? It not this year but when and how soon? More than question of just ” when” but ” when as in how sooner no. Of years will it be before Oscar sees the light? In is as Agent Smith say: ” inevitable “
I’d push back a bit on AMPAS voting safe when they picked Moonlight for the win not long after snubbing Carol for even a nom. Shape was edgier than Three Billboards. If anything, Green Book is more like La La Land and perhaps TOO safe for the diversifying AMPAS membership. Especially if there needs to be a happy medium with the still numerous incumbent branch. Roma or even the Favourite makes a stronger case for being safe yet edgy (based on reviews and impressions people have left). As for superhero etc I’d find it odd that people on one hand think adding in younger voices means more art house “real” films will be rewarded yet at the same time you point out it is inevitable that the antithesis of those films will be honored.
Yes but as you know waaay too many young people seduced by left misinterpret action of film their naivety not all of youth means they believe being reactionary in their film making beliefs mean that art house more dominant than it deserves had more it fair share dominating awards since after 2001 Oscar year now time retore balance no mate u may not think so guarantee overwhelmingly biggest cheer for academy from here come when black panther wins sorry if big big IF it wind you can’t deny facts of Oscar results point to Oscar being overtly zealous obseseeed about art house sacrificing their audience ratings and losing support from key elements within the industry
Would anyone here be shocked by Chazelle making BD?
No.
It would. I still think the fifth slot (I feel Farrelly is locked in now along with Cuaron, Cooper and Lee) is between McKay and Lanthimos
No. I think he’s very respected and First Man may be stronger than we’ve thought all along (critically).
In my final noms predictions I keep going back and forth between wondering if First Man is Sully or Darkest Hour this year. Sully and Darkest Hour both had the same trend line of seeming like sure things but DH got a surprising nom while Sully did not. Both bio pics with arguably worthy lead performances. Sully lost to new eye candy at the end (Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water) while Darkest Hour fended off its last minute eye candy Florida Project, I, Tonya both of which ended up with more pundits predicting noms over DH.
Looking at stats and precedents I give First Man about a 25-30% chance of being nominated. I have it in 10th.
Me too at the moment. Bohemian in 9th because it has whiffs of I, Tonya to me but with undeniable actual results that I Tonya did not.
I have BR in 8th, behind Beale. Black Panther is the one I think is the most vulnerable of the top 9. (Only one Golden Globe drama winner in 75 years or so hasn’t gotten in for BP.)
I was swayed by the argument that there is a passionate base for Beale out there which is necessary especially with a bigger pool of voters and especially among the art house film crowd that has arguably only The Favourite as a credible alternative. I agree BP could go either way because there is enough of a statistically significant pool of pundits across the many demographics picking it. But then Carol seemed like a sure thing, too.
I predicted Darkest Hour to get in and TFP and I, Tonya to miss. Confidently, in the latter’s case. Also just using stats and precedents. (I got Phantom Thread wrong – I’m surprised to see The Big Sick was actually the one I predicted instead, even though I try to never predict my favorites when it’s borderline.)
I took darkest Hour to be taking the Sully route and went Florida Project. And then i went I, Tonya buying into the academy is changing and willing to embrace more non-traditional Oscar fare. Instead they did the reverse and distinctly went old Hollywood with DH and PT. Every year is new/conflicting data. Fewer of the edgier art house far in the running (seemingly) despite the hipper, younger, diverse members being added. Will things change or are we just adding younger/more diverse people with the same opinions?
I also remember I BELIEVED Darkest Hour would get in. Even before checking the stats and precedents. (Which I always forget, to an extent, before rechecking them every year pre-nominations – since that’s the only time I look at them in-depth.)
“Will things change or are we just adding younger/more diverse people with the same opinions?”
Yeah, that’d be pretty funny… 🙂 Things probably will change, but not as quickly as people (myself not included) had assumed they might. People tend to overreact.
I definitely used that lesson to refine my stable of experts further. Thing is that more of them who had 8 or 9 correct last year pick Boho over First Man and Beale is comfortably in the mix if not as strong as the other 7 picks. Someday I’m SURE if I tinker with it enough my model will work as well if not better than yours. (But I sure ain’t holdin’ my breath) lol.
Well, anyway, it sounds like we end up with the same picks this year. 🙂 That’s cool, to know I’m on the same side as the pundits. (Of course, something weird, a la Phantom Thread, WILL probably happen again. A nominee that’s very hard to predict via stats happens just about every other year.)
Yup. Based on range of pundits that would be Quiet Place, Asians or Poppins. But I don’t think any of the directors or actors or producers associated with them have the same passionate fan base that PT presumably had. And not a stat or significant in any way but every other year since at least 2011 has alternated between a year with one or two surprises and none. 2011 (Extremely Loud in), 2012 safe, 2013 Saving Mr Banks out, 2014 safe, 2015 Carol out, 2016 safe, 2017 PT in 2018 safe? No rational reason of course for it to happen merely a quirk of the odds.
Yeah, I kind of noticed that alternation too. 🙂 Although I didn’t realize it was quite so symmetrical.
Mary Poppins Returns is my 11th and, with AFI, NBR and BFCA, is arguably even more likely than First Man to upset and get in. (Although I weigh the 10 BFCA nominations for the latter – I think only Nine has missed with that many in the preferential era – a bit more.) My 12th is actually Cold War – an unexpectedly strong showing at BAFTA, with at least four nods, including major ones, can sometimes a very, very good sign for a bit of a repeat at the Oscars, and it could make both BP and BD, even, a la Amour or Phantom Thread. The reason I don’t have it higher is those two had a category they were dominating – foreign/costumes -, whereas Cold War hasn’t won anything at T.V. precursors. But I could still see it happening. It might just be unlucky to be going up against Roma. In 13th I begrudgingly put A Quiet Place, then First Reformed (due to that screenplay stat plus AFI and NBR nods – but no BFCA) and finally Crazy Rich Asians in 15th.
Strictly speaking the moneyball model has Poppins 11th, Quiet 12th, Asians 13th, and 8th Grade 14th. Cold War popped up occasionally with one or two in their top 10 but then faded. So when you look at Philomena with 8 pundits or an Extremely Loud with 3 there are obvious flaws in the moneyball method especially as Phantom Thread had only four out of 48 pundits tracked last year.
Interesting… So maybe I’m overestimating Cold War a bit. Probably. 🙂 Past the top 9-10 in the stats standings it’s harder to know what is the most likely to upset, because they each have very little in terms of precursor mentions to distinguish themselves from the other movies that have very little. But the top 10 I think is well put together. Not that I can’t get tons wrong – I never have so far. I’ve always done very well predicting BP nominations with the stats. I think I got 100% right one year and missed one each the other two I’ve done this. But I’m sure I’ll get more than that wrong at some point. I’m due. 🙂
With an update from a few pundits Quiet Place moves into 11th by one weighted point over Poppins now in 12th. There is a pool of an additional 14 younger/newer pundits who collectively and individually have Quiet Place in 10th instead of First Man. I’ve noticed that some “older” pundits like Tapley seem to be getting more out of touch with the AMPAS tastes/predictions so “auditioning” new ones to incorporate. We’ll see if generationally there is a difference in choices or not.
Ah, makes sense: I’d refused to predict The Big Sick all the way, then finally caved at the end and put it in. 🙂 Lesson learned!
I have First Man in 7 categories (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Score, Cinematography, Editing, Supporting Actress and Production Design). It might make Visual Effects. If it gets as many as 8 nominations, how does it not get into Best Director? It would go the same route as Inception (and quite ironically, Nolan has come out in support of Chazelle like two days ago).
I have it on 6, I think. Not supporting actress, but that’s maybe mostly me doing insurance, as I often do. (Although I do very much think Foy is vulnerable. I picked Robbie instead.)
Dreamgirls also had 8 nominations but neither picture, nor director.
Only “Carol” missed BP after getting six nominations. it seems more likely than not if it does get six or more nominations since the expansion of BP. I have Robbie in too but I think Foy has a better chance than Blunt.
Interesting!… I didn’t realize the highest number to miss for BP in the preferential era was so low. Anyway, I have First Man in 10th for BP, so I’d of course not at all be surprised if it got in. (Though I’m not building up hope or anything like that. I think it’s about 25% to happen, which means it probably won’t, especially since I’m rooting for it…)
True, but (not Cabaret) They Shoot Horses had 9 noms with no BP nom. But your point is one that keeps me vacillating in my final nom picks. (Where are my glasses again? Thanks for catching me out and keeping my honest Claudiu!
No, you’re mixing that one up… 🙂 It WON 8 Oscars but lost BP. And screenplay. Out of 10 nominations.
Whoops! I thought it was odd when I read that on the Wikipedia page of Oscar stats…
No – but I WOULD die and go to Heaven pretty much on the spot!…
Here are my full Oscar predictions. (Well, no shorts.) And guess what, I’m only predicting Green Book to get four nods.
https://ifyouwantthegravy.wordpress.com/2019/01/20/predicting-the-nominees-of-the-91st-academy-awards/
I agree with your supporting actress lineup! I think that 5th slot will go to foy who along with king should of never missed the sag to begin with.
That second Emily Blunt nomination just threw everything off.
So I guess you’re not predicting it to win BP, then, right? 🙂
Wow, we have the same top 10 predicted for Picture! First Man in 10th for me as well, but I have Black Panther in 9th. And Beale in 7th, actually, ahead of Bohemian Rhapsody.
People just loved BR so friggin’ much. And no GG – Drama winner has missed a Picture nomination since 1963. My gut says that isn’t changing.
I know. I’m actually not predicting either that OR Black Panther to miss out, and if one does it’s Panther, I think, hence my putting it in 9th. BR is in 8th, but I seriously doubt we get fewer than 8 nominees anyway. 🙂
“There is a bit of a pattern in the replacements, to be sure; all save Abrahamson were previous nominees, with Gibson a previous winner. So they do like people they know.”
Ah – so THAT’S why I’m going to get Lanthimos wrong… 🙂 I knew there was some reason. So I guess it’s maybe Jenkins? (Surely it can’t be the DGA five!)
Losing Lanthimos would suck, but if we got Jenkins instead I’d be totally fine with it.
I can’t see both Chalamet and Rockwell getting in. Not sure which misses – leaning Rockwell.
I also predicted Birds of Passage instead of Burning. 🙂
If Elliott had Globe and/or BAFTA I’d put him on for sure. Missing both gives me grave doubts, because it’s the kind of sentimental-favorite nomination that needs broad support to go all the way.
And yeah, I predicted Foreign Film before seeing Burning, but seeing it and being mostly underwhelmed by it validated my hunch.
Yeah, I have doubts about Elliott as well. But I’m just not feeling Rockwell, and Chalamet also feels somewhat iffy to me. (Probably for no reason. He’s probably very safe.)
Chalamet is safe because he’s hit everything. He, Ali, Driver, and Grant have swept the precursors, and like, say, Ethan Hawke or Mark Ruffalo in 2014, it doesn’t matter that he hasn’t won anything. He’s a consistent presence.
“Chalamet is safe because he’s hit everything.”
I know, but those miss too, sometimes. 🙂 But, anyway, I agree that I’m probably wrong about his not being safe. It’s just a feeling.
Chalamet has been everywhere in the Oscar circuit. He attended all sorts of parties, even the parties that weren’t related to his movie.
Glad it won. Eff the haters honestly. 🙂
In all honesty, the film itself did not make my top 20 list. Nevertheless, its entertaining and flawlessly acted by its two leads. So I absolutely understand the love.
Its hard to hate on a film that, despite all of the valid arguments against it, essentially has two perfect performances. Not that they were given too much to develop but there was not a false note in either performance.
Thanks superkk! And to be clear, I am in no way advocating for them as two best performances of the year because I do not believe that they are. But they took what they had to work with and made the most of it.
Hey, I can respect that. Great post.
It looks like it’s gonna be another 2015 year where there’s a different winner in pga, dga and SAG.
Green book can’t Win SAG and it’s not going to win the dga so this is actually a fairly interesting race now.
Imagine:
Oscar – ASIB
PGA – Green Book
DGA – Roma
SAG – BKK
… there’s no heaven…
Wouldn’t surprise me
If ASIB can’t win at SAG, PGA, BAFTA, DGA, Toronto Audience, NBR and Globes, very hard to see it winning Oscar!! IMO, ASIB must win at SAG and Gaga, too.
Definitely feels that way…
But I guess theoretically the same movie could still win SAG+DGA. ASIB or BKKKM doing that don’t seem like ridiculous scenarios, especially now that we know Roma isn’t THAT big for the industry. But yes, for sure, this is a favorite to happen again now, the three-way split of the Triple Crown guilds. Which is awesome!
Sag and DGA being the same is definitely possible but I just can’t see cuaron losing DGA and he’s not up for sag and neither is green book. I think blackkklansman would have to pull off a miracle which I would be totally fine with if it got both of those.
I can see Cuaron losing. He probably won’t, but so far Roma has not done well with the industry. Total SAG snub, PGA defeat when it definitely could have won. (I mean, if Green Book can, then why not Roma too?!) Maybe they’re simply not that into it… (As was the case with, say, Boyhood.) Probably not, but it’s starting to at least look like a possibility.
Are they into ASIB any more than “Roma” except for SAG? I think ASIB losing PGA is bit weakness than because it needs to do really well and has not yet won anything. It’s got nominations but no win so far, anywhere. DGA could ASIB but I am wondering why it lost PGA because they are usually so aligned?
ASIB losing the PGA is a worse sign for its chances than Roma losing is for its chances, of course.
“Are they into ASIB any more than “Roma” except for SAG?”
Well, SAG isn’t the only extra guild where ASIB has nominations and Roma doesn’t. Going by that, they’re most certainly not more into Roma, if nothing else. (But we can’t really know how “into” either of them they are until at least one of them beats the other somewhere significant, anyway.
A film needs to win at least two of the seven major precursors(GG, BFCA, PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA and BAFTA) to win the Oscar BP. GB is now in pole position in that race after winning two (GG and PGA). “Roma” won BFCA, which is a much better predictor than either of those. ASIB has yet to win anything.
There ARE exceptions to that, even if not (yet) in the preferential era: Million Dollar Baby and Braveheart. Also, ASIB is quite likely to win SAG – probably at least around 40% chances, based on the stats I’ve looked at. It’s either the favorite there or a close second. Could win BAFTA, too, though that seems less likely. But it could. And the DGA could also be won. WGA seems very unlikely, but who knows?! That’s why I don’t like making assumptions in-between precursors. Let’s just see what wins these! 🙂 Then I’ll tell you what I think. (Perhaps not in detail, given the self-ban, but I’ll at least give you – and everybody else – my official prediction and probably also the percentages for each contender. Once the WGA has announced.)
By the way, I’m sure you would get the exact same stat if you removed BAFTA from the equation entirely. I can’t think of a movie that won only BAFTA and one other award out of the ones you mention. That’s how irrelevant BAFTA is…
We now that the industry is into “Green Book” since it won but we don’t that it isn’t into “Roma” anymore than ASIB or any other of the PGA nominees. A three way split seems likely.
We know the industry isn’t as into Roma as it clearly would have been had it won the PGA… 🙂 Which might not be much, but also isn’t irrelevant.
If Viggo wins at SAG in a week, it is over.
SAG stats (research prompted by a conversation I had with jasonmovieguy – I’ve found several others since, though, and updated my conclusions a bit, as a result):
There ARE some stats that can be used to predict SAG Ensemble, it seems, and they actually aren’t bad. (I’m sure other exist too, but these are the ones I’ve discovered so far.) The main one is that the SAG Ensemble winner has always been nominated for that award at the Critics Choice as well, save for Slumdog Millionaire (which won the PGA, so it’s not a good precedent for anything in the race this year). So, that’s nine out of the last nine, and 16/17 overall, for a rather strong stat. This year, the only ones nominated for both of these awards are Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians.
Secondly, all of the SAG Ensemble winners have been nominated for the WGA, when eligible. Even The Birdcage. This year, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman and A Star is Born made it in there. The same three were nominated for the Critics Choice for screenplay (the last 14 SAG Ensemble winners were all nominated there, as well.) Also, since 1997, except for Chicago, they have all been nominated for the BAFTA for screenplay as well. Another strong stat. Here, only A Star is Born and BlacKkKlansman qualify. (At the Globes, with a single category available, of course, plenty have missed. 7/23, for 30%. So, that’s not a stat. And, in any case, NONE of the SAG ensemble nominees were on the Globes list for screenplay for last year, which has never happened before.) So, SAG winners have had very, very few major screenplay snubs anywhere (except at the Globes) between them. Most of them also had at least one big screenplay win. A lot of them dominated screenplay.
Also, of course, the only movie not nominated for the Best Picture Oscar to win SAG was The Birdcage. Which only had one Oscar nomination, so it almost definitely would have missed even with the current system in place. Of the five, the only one I don’t think will get in for BP at the Oscars is Crazy Rich Asians. (In fact, it’s very unlikely to make the cut, according to the stats. But it does have a shot.)
The PGA winner, when nominated for SAG, of course, wins about 50% of the time. Not the case this year. The only two times it wasn’t (the last two years), a movie snubbed for directing at the Oscars won SAG. (Hidden Figures and Three Billboards.) Which is probably a coincidence, since, in general, SAG winners are snubbed for directing and/or editing at the Oscars/guilds A LOT, well over what one would expect, I would say. 13/23 winners, in fact, were industry-snubbed for one or the other, or both. (I even found some logical connection there a couple years ago, I believe. For the editing and writing correlations, at the very least.) This year, Bohemian Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians have already been snubbed by the DGA, but don’t have the screenplay credentials, as can be seen above, and Black Panther missed both there and at ACE. The latter does have the required screenplay nominations, except at BAFTA, but is unlikely to get any wins.
Finally, all nine SAG winners in the preferential era were also nominated by the Casting Society of America (the stat gets less clear before that – Slumdog Millionaire seems to have missed, as well as Little Miss Sunshine). This year, only BlacKkKlansman, A Star is Born and Crazy Rich Asians are on that list as well.
With all that in mind, I’d rank the chances of winning SAG Ensemble thus:
1. BlacKkKlansman (because it makes sense and it’s the more likely screenplay winner, although if it continues to not win there, perhaps A Star is Born and Black Panther become more likely)
2. A Star is Born (which I’m going to actually be predicting IF it misses for editing at the Oscars, and I think that may well happen – BlacKkKlansman, on the other hand, shouldn’t miss that)
3. Black Panther (a very close third, if not even the actual favorite; seems to me like its BAFTA screenplay snub stat is more relevant – being industry – than the other two’s BFCA ensemble snub, but I have no idea if that’s the case or not; but there’s also the Casting Society of America snub that’s seemingly a clue against it)
4. Crazy Rich Asians (it at least has the BFCA ensemble nomination, but it’s significantly less likely than the other four to get nominated for BP, which I also base on stats and precedents)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (ultimately placing it last due to the lack of a nomination from the Casting Society of America – unless it was ineligible or something, but it’s not top 3 in any case)
Love me some data to chew on. Thank you!
Panther wins SAG since it didn’t PGA and can’t DGA. Ensemble isn’t equivalent of Best Picture anyway. They’ll feel they have to give it a win and Ensemble one is deserved. Though I think it should have won PGA too. I never understood PGA going for movies that don’t make production budget back. makes no sense. So instead of stupid Popular Movie category, PGA should be the place where profitable movies thrive, not necessarily just big blockbusters but FFS make profit if you want to win.
“So instead of stupid Popular Movie category, PGA should be the place where profitable movies thrive, not necessarily just big blockbusters but FFS make profit if you want to win.”
Wouldn’t help Oscar ratings, though… 🙂
nothing can help oscar ratings. it’s an outdated entertainment that literally has no way to attract new audience, while old audience can check clips on YT without sitting through the bloated slog.
Yeah, probably… Not significantly, in any case.
I don’t think we should overestimate Green Book’s chances for surprise nominations on Tuesday. This win seems to me as a natural second choice, as Roma didn’t win because of Netflix and small BO (plus, foreign-language). I think Oscar nominations will still play out as previously expected (with Green Book likely to miss, say, Editing, and potentially miss Directing). Now, the same thing that happened here might happen again at the Oscar Best Picture, and Green Book might emerge victorious. But I don’t think it’s suddenly an industry juggernaut getting all the right nominations.
I agree it could still miss editing, and Cardellini is still unlikely. (Although she seems more possible than before.) But I think directing, while it can also be missed (I even mentioned a stat earlier about how that happens pretty often to PGA winners), is mostly safe.
Hey gang.
Bit of bad news. Rob ran into trouble as he was tabulating the AD Oscar ballot.
Something went wrong with the server and the data for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress has gone missing.
Rob has set up a new ballot form for just those two categories.
Wow, I mean, looking on the bright side, we might collect fewer ballots for the actresses now — so your votes will count even more than ever.
Can you please do us the immense favor of recasting your ballot for the actresses?
Here’s the link to the sad news we just posted.
Here’s the direct link to the ballot itself.
Done!
Done!
Done 🙂
Most of us of course would have preferred ROMA, but speaking for myself I do like this film and included it at #23 in my Top 25 of the year. Looks like level heads like Kareen Abdul-Jabar have been heard.
I think people seem to be demanding any film dealing with race to be more documentary than fiction. While some films have hewed closer to the doc end of the spectrum when covering the topic (Schindler’s List) we can’t expect every film that comes even close to a controversial topic to show every dirty, ugly truth of it. Imagine trying to make Porky’s or Animal House in today’s #MeToo environment as one extreme example of this.
Very well said!
I mean, that’s literally the excuse used to justify ‘Crash’ over ‘Brokeback Mountain’.
Sorry, but I don’t feel that is even close. Brokeback Mountain was denied because of homophobia. People aren’t denying a film like Brokeback Mountain today and using Green Book as a fig leaf. No one is saying that Green Book adequately explores racism they are simply saying it doesn’t have to be documentary-like in its approach to be considered a worthy film.
Crash was in second place because it was seen as a easy film with great actors that ‘solved racism’ in two hours — just like Green Book. It actually won because of a unique and unfortunate set of circumstances (mostly homophobia) that took down BM. That was a terrible year.
Here’s my take on what a “Green Book” win tell us and means:
1.) it’s in accordance within the historical, stats-friendly boundaries of “the race” (Globes screenplay/picture wins; Ali acting awards; NBR picture win; Toronto Audience; DGA/WGA noms). Stats rule and shouldn’t surprise us.
2.) it represents a desire for hopefulness, unity and joyous ending in a dark, unsettled times. During Trump, it seems our fairy tales satisfy our desires for excellence in art – not brutal reality. Green Book is in keeping with The Shape of Water’s rose-colored glasses for simpler times where love wins.
3.) it is a longing, at this precipice, to look back at being great again with one another rather than ahead with tension and anxiety – to remember movie-going of old helping us to escape our current divisiveness and to times (far from perfect and still full of hatred!!!) when people overcame extreme differences, separation and learned from each other,
4.) Hollywood and many its many fans/followers have jumped the shark and over-valued the impact of Twitter, discussion forums and ultra-wokeness. Pharisaical, liberal theocratic purity won’t change the actions of others across of country (who avoid social media) and the industry and its professionals will simply not be swayed by mob rule. The industry decides, not a group-think Twitter mob – and smears have no place in the race.
5.) Hollywood cheers scrappy producing teams for whom nothing is easy – few stars, questionable director, no studio or distributor producing partner, script that’s been noodling around…
6.) We live in angry, bitter, divisive times – only antidotes for escapism and sanity to that are GBook, Poppins and Crazy Rich Asian – Panther, too.
Also, don’t be shocked if Viggo (and scene partner Ali) wins Best Actor at SAG as a proxy, as not in Ensemble.
I don’t have a problem with Green Book winning Best Picture at the Oscars.
But I really hope it doesn’t win Screenplay.
This.
Because you felt the actors overcame a not good enough script or merely a sharing of the love/Oscars among several worthy contenders?
Both.
I personally thought it contained sturdy direction, superb acting, smooth editing and handsome craftsmanship; all of which created a positive, entertaining film experience. I wish the screenplay were stronger.
lmao
With neither Green Book nor Roma even being nominated for SAG what will win SAG ensemble and will it impact the eventual BP winner? Is Green Book this year’s Shape of Water (PGA win with no SAG ensemble nod) Other than art directors, Audio Society, costume and makeup guilds the overlap in the precursors between the two looks very similar. If ASIB wins SAG then it is positioned rather like Three Billboards was.
Only Braveheart (in the first SAG Awards) won Oscar BP without any SAG nomination (individual award, Ensemble or both). It has been 13 years, where every BP winner was nominated for a SAG Awards. Very slim chance Roma can overcome those odds/stats, as we saw with pref ballot at PGA.
I agree, but we saw the stat for SAG Ensemble nod fall last year so not a stretch to see the individual SAG nom stat fall as well. Especially depending on the possible opinions of this year’s SAG nom committee on whether to reward “non-actors” for acting awards.
A PGA Winner, with the preferential ballot, has never not received a SAG nomination in any category. Every indicator we have, in an industry ruled by actors, is that Roma will not rewarded like Braveheart. But, we’ll have to wait and see. Not out-of-the-question, but highly, highly unlikely.
I agree in concept, but having gotten burned last year by picking Three Billboards in my Oscar Pools because of the sanctity of the SAG ensemble nomination stat I am more open to the evolution of awards punditry. lol
This surely gives Viggo a boost. A tough three way race between hum, Malek and Bale.
I’m glad with Green Book winning. I’d rather seen Roma or BlakKklansman tooking the big prize, but I really enjoyed Green Book as I’ve said in another post here. In a poor awards season, I only loved these pictures . The others are average or annoying films to me
go watch “The Death of Stalin” now. Possibly, back to back with “Dr. Strangelove” and you will be noticing what a HUGE mistake this award season is. “The Death of Stalin” should be winning:
Picture
Director: Armando Iannucci
Supporting Actor: Simon Russell Beale
Adapted Screenplay
Film Editing
Production Design
Costume
Score
… and extra noms for…
Supporting Actor: Steve Buscemi
Cinematography
Make Up and Hairstyling
There, just said it.
I’ve seen Death of Stalin. It’s a great satire indeed. But it was a BAFTA nominee last year, don’t know if it’s going to be strong enough to get the Academy attention now. Maybe in the adapted screenplay (which I hope so)
I feel Iannucci should’ve gone the miniseries route with this. Each character is so interesting that they all get compromised due to the movie’s running time. I would’ve loved to see more of the concert director, or Stalin’s daughter, or Stalin’s maid, etc.
This is true. But it’s still great, even so.
It’s a bit bleak, though, isn’it? Given the shit we’re going through do you really wanna watch something that conveys no message of hope?
embrace nihilism. You’ll live longer.
I would bet Blackkklansman will win SAG Ensemble – perhaps Viggo too. I agree that this was not the strongest year for award movies, for sure!!!!
I can see Mahershala Ali winning 4 Oscars before his career is over. Just check out his versatility, starting with House of Cards, Moonlight, Green Book, and now True Detective.
I knew he was a star from The 4400 onward.
When he still went by his real name 😀
Which one? Mahershalalhashbaz Gilmore or Mahershala Karim-Ali? I just had to Wikipedia it
Mahershalalhashbaz Ali.
Also the first half of season one of Luke Cage. That is where I first saw him. I’ve stopped watching when he left.
What if The Favourite surprises as BP winner?
It is possible that it will sweep at BAFTAs…
It could be a surprise if it appears as no #2 or #3 on voters’ ballots. But I don’t think that will be the case.
Absent precursors it does have the advantage of being like the previous two BP winners in that it is a slightly more modern take on traditional movie genres (Sci Fi and romance). Were it doing better with SAG and PGA I’d have picked it over the “traditional” film that ASIB is. That is why for the moment I am leaning towards Roma for the BP as it is different yet the same enough to be a consensus pick among the new diversity of the academy that spans the old school members to the (presumably) more “purist/discerning” (fill in the hopeful adjective of people railing against popular films as well as GB, ASIB etc) membership.
It will not.
As I mentioned in another comment, this is the kiss of death for ASIB. PGA was not something Roma was expected to win, but ASIB should really have, especially after losing at the Globes and the Critics Circle.
Since the DGA is Cuaron´s to loose, I guess it´s Green Book vs. Roma at the Oscars (with Green Book being the new frontrunner).
I posted this in a conversation with John Smith about two weeks ago: Green Book should benefit from the Preferential System, looks like a typical Academy darling, aside probably from the fact, that it´s more like a typical winner from the 90s – and the membership has changed sinced then, especially during the last couple of years. So the race is not over, of course!
Crazy how a film with ASIB’s box office, guild and critical performance, who was believed to be an overwhelming frontrunner in October, is losing literally EVERYTHING.
My theory is that ASIB is widely seen as a fluffy star vehicle about pop industry stardome – that´s significantly different to “Birdman” and it´s main character struggling between mainstream success and Broadway high art. I didn´t like “Birdman”, by the way, and thought it´s as superficial as ASIB, but it gave the Academy members the feeling of rewarding something that at least seemed to handle their own values.
At least Birdman had a huge technical feat and powerful performances from all its cast and it’s an original work so yeah, Birdman, by any scope, is still better than A Star is Born.
It’s a story about male irrelevancy and female ascendency who white male voter is gonna vote for that?
ASIB is a remake of a remake of a remake, the second half is much weaker than the first, and it’s really muddled as far as what it’s trying to say about the music industry. The parts that work well feel grounded in reality, but as it goes along it degenerates into soap opera fluff. Gaga fans drove a lot of the hyperbole for it.
Compare ASIB’s portrayal of a woman loving a charming and self-destructive alcoholic to something like Leaving Las Vegas. Beyond the impressive work that Cooper put in to really learn to play and the shocking revelation that Gaga actually can act, ASIB was a lightweight.
“Green Book should benefit from the Preferential System, looks like a typical Academy darling”
This was always clear. 🙂 What wasn’t was whether it was quite strong enough to genuinely be in the BP conversation at all – until now.
Well, it was certainly not clear to some commenters around, like John Smith, who argued it´s too divisive to win. 😉
But the Academy is – as we know – a total different beast than the Critics Circle groups or the AD community.
But still, don´t count out Roma – it has political and social relevance with that crazy clown in the White House brawling to get his beloved wall …
“John Smith, who argued it´s too divisive to win”
He did? Hmmm… I would’ve disagreed, had I seen that. (Or maybe I did and I was just in a hurry that day, who knows?! I don’t remember it, in any case.)
Of course I’m not counting out Roma. How could I?! 🙂
Can anyone explain why ASIB has seemed solid, hit every guild and seems like it’s losing now?
It is appreciated but not everyone’s favorite?
In the end, the 3rd remake of the same basic story seemed like unnecessary, and no awards worthy .
The BP winner will be a basic remake of Driving Miss Daisy with mediocre reviews.
Not mediocre reviews. It has a Rotten Tomatoes of 82%, with 94% Audience Score. It has a Metacritic of 70%. Twitter crazy guys are not the only voices in the industry.
From 86 BP nominees in the past decade, Just 6 have a Metascore behind that. It’s mediocre. I’m not talking about a sample with Transfomers, Twilight or Shallow Hal but films that contended for the Oscars.
Which is why there are critics awards with different outcomes than industry and guild awards to be fair. And different, as people like to point out here, from the People’s Choice Awards. I absolutely recognize the point about critics views as indicators of what is likely to be nominated and/or win but I suspect that is because those become guides to which screeners to pull to the top of the pile as well as the indication from the “cool kids” on what the rest are supposed to do and copy from them much like Cher and friends determined the fashion trends for classmates in “Clueless.’ (Just to be a tad snarky to over-exaggerate a point.)
Which presumably means the critics are grossly out of touch with the tastes of the newly expanded, more diverse academy membership then.
Ali will be the second acting Oscar winner to play a passenger!
It’s just an OK movie with great musical sequences. Directing? Average, Acting? Average (except for Cooper) Script? Mediocre.
Cooper’s role was sooo easy. Gaga was great, but I still can’t think why she even was an Oscar frontrunner. And again, I loved A Star is Born, but think is hugely overrated, with obvious pacing and character problems.
It’s a movie that only exists because of the ego of the talents involved.
That doesn’t mean it couldn’t have been good. The first half was well done, great even. But ultimately, because of the downhill second half, it didn’t resonate with me.
Maybe it just tried to be many things at once.
it was too rushed to the end. I found myself not caring when “that” happened.
easy… it’s playing the very same game than Bohemian Rhapsody… despite what reviews say, BR is the one with bigger emotional impact, plus is a real-life story, and not the 4th version of a classic story. Once you consider this… specially Gaga and Cooper’s performances aren’t in the same league as Malek’s. That’s what happened…
“Especially Gaga and Cooper’s performances aren’t in the same league as Malek’s?” Haha.. Sorry but no. Gaga and especially Cooper were fantastic in their parts, as much as I love Malek and think his performance was really good and the best part of a painfully mediocre film, he’s inferior to so many this year (and definitely both Cooper AND Gaga – which says a lot when Gaga’s performance can’t match countless performances this year) one can lose count. And obviously ASIB, a very good film but weaker than so many incredible films of last year, looks like a masterpiece for the ages next to something like BR. People flock in masses for a showy, “safe”, by the numbers spectacle (ironically about one of the most brave, unconventional and fascinating rock legends of all time) so BR naturally connected with so many people.. Ugh. :/
neither are very good films and all three performances have their flaws. But lets face it, the difference is the reverence with which the public still holds Queen and, more importantly, Freddie Mercury. That man was an absolute force of nature
That man was an absolute force of nature and that’s why he deserved a far, far better film. And I have to disagree with your opinion that ASIB is not a very good film, however weaker it is like I said next to so many brilliant films of this season. Also, as far as I’m concerned and like I’ve already said, both Cooper and surprisingly Gaga turn out to terrific work in their film. Malek, a very good actor in general, is simply solid but definitely overacts in his film. ASIB and BR have like zero things in common apart from being music dramas. One’s a fantastic film (ASIB), the other a poor man’s biopic about a music genius. Mercury and Queen deserved a film worthy of their legacy, not that “safe for work”, conventional as hell, bland film. BR deserved zero awards attention. It’s a perfectly watchable film but an insult to every film of this season and most of the last 20-25 seasons. So not the same case between ASIB and BR.
While I respectfully disagree that ASIB is anywhere near a fantastic film, I believe that you are spot on when it comes to Bohemian Rhapsody being much worse. And while I prefer many other performances to both, I agree that Bradley Cooper was better than Rami was in BR. I do believe that, for better or worse, the love for BR is less about the love for the film and the performance than it is about nostalgia and an unrelenting love for Freddie and the band
Oh for sure man. I almost get mad at those comments from various people going “Well, BR soars because Freddie and Queen are incredible.” I’m like “Well, then they should have made a film honoring the fascinating spirit of both.” Sadly, BR is definitely not that film and it’s so weak artistic-wise that it honestly disappoints me seeing it recognized like this. I can’t recall a film that weak scoring that kind of awards attention in years. The whole situation is just a disgrace.
mmm… opinions. Cooper’s performance was mostly one note to me (being high, then in love, then high again). Gaga was really good, but hey, you don’t earn an Oscar for smashing a picture and breaking the glass, do you? I like the fact she’s getting a deserved nom, but for example, I felt Millicent Simmonds in A Quiet Place was leagues over Gaga, in a way more complex role. Or Yalitza Aparicio, who should be winning even if we only counted the birth scene. And I even haven’t seen The Favourite yet. And without liking Bird Box at all, I kind of think Bullock had a more complex role than Gaga, and delivered it perfectly fine.
Is this the first year ever where neither of the 2 BP front runners have SAG ensemble noms?
If it gets the BD nod, I think it will win 3 Oscars : picture, screenplay, supporting actor.
My guess is SAG will go to Black Panther, DGA to Cuaron and WGA to Green Book and Beale Street.
While I’m not a fan of a Green Book year, I have to say it is still not the worst option. We can knock it all we want, but at least it had a good (not great) screenplay, a good (not great) directing achievement and GREAT acting. Its presumed main competition, ASIB, to me at least, is ruled out as an even remotely deserving BP winner due to its mess of a screenplay. It had good (not great) directing and good (Gaga) / great (Cooper) acting though.
My main issue with this season is that we had films that were GREAT in all aspects (The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk), instant classics and modern masterpieces if you will, so why can’t those prevail ? Why is it a battle of good(ish) movies when there are great ones out there, too ?
P.S. Green Book as a cinematic experience was a joy. If it goes all the way, oh well, at least the film is good. I just wish it were great.
Now I’m ready to predict Bohemian Rhapsody for SAG Ensemble 😀
I did so, right after watching it win GG drama – and actually watching the film, and how it’s Queen, not four actors playing Queen. But I also thought it could win PGA (I was torn between BR, Black Panther, Green Book and A Star is Born, didn’t think anything else would have a chance) and failed… if we want our things fucked up:
SAG Ensemble – Black Panther or Crazy Rich Asians
BAFTA – The Favourite
DGA – BlacKkKlansman
PGA – Green Book
GG Drama – Bohemian Rhapsody
GG Comedy – Green Book
GG Foreign – Roma
WGA Original – Vice
WGA Adapted – BlacKkKlansman
… and then Oscar… A Star is Born. *mind explodes*
Actually not impossible AT ALL… (Except Vice for WGA – that one I find hard to believe.)
This Race: “Watchu want?”
Oscarologists: “Just fuck me up, fam.”
This Race: “Say no more…”
The only problem with that theory is they might treat it as more of a Rami Malek and other actors situation than an ensemble.
Though anything goes at this point.
I think it’s down to Black Panther vs Bohemian Rhapsody. Crazy Rich Asians as the spoiler. Crazy prediction but I think the last two are the Best Picture contenders.
My guess is Black Panther but Crazy Rich Asians wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
If Black Panther wins then I genuinely have no idea what happens to the Oscars race.
Yes this is one of those years. I think we’ve had the answer since Toronto (Green Book surprised by winning there) we just kinda thought “eh we can do better”. But I guess when it comes to the Academy it is fair to say ‘the heart wants what the heart wants’. Sure would explain a few questionable BP winners of theirs.
OMG as much as I don’t think that movie is very good and think outside of Malek the cast is terrible I kinda want it to happen just to watch twitter freak out 😀
Mike Myers…in Bohemian Rhapsody…SAG award winner.
XD
Are people not expecting this?
I have it as the likely winner on my ballot. Not because I think it should win, but because it feels like exactly the kind of thing that would happen this season.
The Globe win gave me pause. There is sheer love around this film.
Best Picture: Green Book
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Those picks were fairly safe; no?
“Green Book” is “King Speeching” its path to Oscar Glory – I always said it here – and I love how its victory put a finger and say a big “f… you” to the film twitter haters who is trying to clear destroy the film at any cost. I feel so relieved that the industry and guilds are not giving a shit for these guys or the critics. They are voting on what they like. Enough of these people who every single year act like dictators trying to impose their views to shape the race. Also, these people want to tell to the general audience what a good film is. For the audiences “Green Book” is a good film – has a 94% audience approval on RT -. I am very happy for this. The industry needs to have a voice. The industry is more than the film critics or “the twitterland”. Happily, critics favorites, besides “Roma” – which is good, but not a masterpiece – are being defeated one by one. It is wonderful to see films targeted by the critics surving and prevailing like “Green Book”, “Vice” and “BR”. This year marks a turning point in Awards Race.
YAAAS PREACH!!! They forgot that the Oscars are not only for independent films who have 95% scores in rotten tomatoes. I could feel Adam McKay and Peter Farrelly laughing their asses of right now.
To those who were complaining about A Star is Born or Black Panther’s success all season because one is a remake and the other is a formulatic franchise film without a directors touch… congratulations… you will have a formulatic Driving Miss Daisy remake as BP winner.
This should be the featured comment.
Not my first choice, but I rather see Green Book taking everything than Bohemian, black panther or ASIB.
I totally agree. Considering how weak some of the frontrunners (the ones you mentioned and BlackKkKlansman are pretty embarassing picks, imo) this year, I’m fine with Green Book winning although I don’t think it’s winning the Oscar.
Quick question – has the PGAs received a similar demographic shake-up to the Oscars in terms of voters, or is it roughly similar to last year?
The young voters remain the biggest X-factor for results in the Oscars, though I’d be 1000% lying if I said I knew what they’d shift towards.
the “new academy” is the most overstated thing in this entire race
No, unlike the Academy these guilds are actual unions and don’t really have the power to just adjust their membership in order to get better awards voters.
The semi-exception to this is SAG, because they merged with AFTRA, but the effects on their awards is different and harder to pin down.
Adios Roma! Collect your three Oscars and thanks for playing. ASIB, we have a parting gift of Best Song for you. Everyone else, you’re about to get run over by a ’62 Cadillac DeVille.
I hope you’re wrong.
I was, it’ll be 3, but once again, Hollywood is not going to say our best film is a neorealism, black and white foreign film. Not how the town works.
Who’s getting Ridley Scott vibes from Spike Lee? A snub would be ludicrous, but are we sure he’s a total lock?
I don’t think the Academy and Awards people really really like Spike. I mean look at that speech he gave when he got the Achievement award a couple of years back. Unappreciative? Spike is just a lucky BLACK producer, writer/director. He does better commercials than he does movies IMO. Today there are so many more qualified and worthy BLACK writer/directors. I love what Barry Jenkins is doing; even Will Packer is doing good comedy films. Spike IMO has the name and the fame, but others are passing him by.
Spike has had his share of creative misfires over the years (Oldboy, She Hate Me, Girl 6), but you’re talking about the director of Do the Right Thing, Four Little Girls, Malcolm X, Bamboozled, The 25th Hour, Summer of Sam, and Clockers. He wasn’t lucky- he was extraordinarily persistent and savvy in building a career for himself at a time when there were scant opportunities for African-American filmmakers telling stories where black characters had their own agency and were not there just to further the development of white characters. Can he be abrasive and cantankerous? Hell yes, and he has plenty of reason to be.
Look, it’s totally fair to say that filmmakers such as McQueen, Jenkins, and Peele have surpassed him artistically, but to deny his significance in the history of African-American cinema is asinine.
I might be the minority on this, but I think Lee’s best movie is The 25th Hour. I absolutely loved it, especially the extended ending. Probably the best cast he has ever assembled for a film.
I think Spike Lee’s brand is much more a part of Blackkklansman than Ridley Scott’s brand was a part of The Martian. Scott was just kind of a professional craftsman behind The Martian (or at least it felt that way) while Blackkklansman straight up wouldn’t exist without Lee’s vision.
Whelp, the groundhog saw its shadow, back to another half decade of lukewarm Best Picture choices with no ambition or risktaking.
Last time we had a crossroads like this was The Social Network against The King’s Speech. What happened after that point? 5 safe picks – The Artist, Argo, 12 Years A Slave (which is admittedly a good film), Birdman (ditto), and Spotlight.
It took Moonlight to reverse that trend and begin rewarding more daring and memorable films again. To regress back in that 2012-2016 comfort zone of period platitudes and self-inspired movies about movies would be a damn shame.
It has made $42 million so far at the boxoffice, so that may disqualify it because it earned too much money than the last 4 or 5 Oscar BP’s.
If you’re really going to brag about box office for this film, that puts it behind A Star is Born ($202.4 Million domestic, $406.5 Million total), Bohemian Rhapsody ($200.3 Million domestic, $780.5 Million total), and Black Panther ($700 Million domestic, $1.3 Billion total)
Bragging about that box office is like Donald Trump bragging about his crowd attendance – it’s just asking to be compared to bigger numbers.
Right now, it only made more than Moonlight. And unlike all the winners after Argo, it’s from major studio. I consider this performance average to mediocre.
I agree with your overall point about Green Book but I’m not sure I’d exactly call 12 Years a Slave or Birdman “safe” picks given that one is a graphicly violent exploration of American history that pulls no punches and the other is a witty satire that was done in a single shot. The “safe” Oscary choices those two years were probably Dallas Buyers Club and The Imitation Game.
The industry’s hypocrisy is back without shame. Lots of hypocrite speeches about Trump and in the end let’s award a film with mediocre reviews by a mediocre white director about racism that African Americans hate.
I don’t think you can say all African Americans hate it. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it should win (its very much middle of that pack to me, certainly not the worst but there are definitely better films there) but there have been some very prominent African American figures who have come out loving the film. Examples: Quincy Jones, Abdul-Jabbar, William Boddie, Muhammad Hatim – many of whom knew Shirley personally have showered the film with praise. You can say the film is bad, you can say its problematic but to say African Americans hate it as if you are speaking for all African Americans is just ridiculous.
If it was widely approved by African Americans, it would have an enormously better box office performance than it did.
I never said it was widely approved by African Americans. I wouldn’t make sweeping statements about any group like that. I was just saying your sweeping statement that african americans in general hate it is pretty naiive. And box office comes down to many different factors. Plus it hasn’t done badly. It had a bad initial wide opening but has had a lot of legs and is still bringing in decent money every week. Its box office story still isn’t over.
Jordan Peele’s ascendency and Oscar win feels like a billion years ago
Worst possible choice. *Cringe*
I’m sorry but I’m too busy burying ASIB’s chances at the moment.
Spider Man: Into the Spiderverse: Animated Film. Wow.
Ralph Breaks the Internet called and demands a recount. Just drama series, movie and doc to go, then.
Ralph is just the OK version of the Emoji Movie
It’s certainly as cynical and corporate as the Emoji movie.
If ever there was a year I wanted Disney/Pixar to lose their win streak in Animated…
Hollywood seems to hate me this year.
3/3! I am not going to lie. I want Green Book to win at the Oscars because I put a significant bet on it months and months ago. But even for less selfish reasons, I am quite glad the PGA didn’t vote for a great big financial juggernaut because of dollar signs. I am also glad they were not swayed by factors outside of the film itself and hyperbolic takedowns. The fact they voted for it means they like it and afterall that’s what all these folks should be voting for anyhow.
Also Linda Cardellini, your new Best Supporting Actress nominee
I don’t think it’s a favorite to happen (that category is really crowded), but it definitely feels like a strong outside possibility now.
She has what… 5 minutes of screentime? 10? She has like 20 lines in the movie. If she is nominated, it means there is OVERWHELMING support for the movie and it’s the de facto Best Picture winner.
I thought the same thing when SLP got Jacki Weaver in. But Ben Affleck’s snub really pushed Argo to the finish.
Jacki Weaver was a previous nominee though.
And now she’s an internet legend thanks to the Birdbox meme https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2cf309c54c6c6b0a95793608fc94a77965dc2e6961ca50f8100bd925ba19cdff.jpg
“If she is nominated, it means there is OVERWHELMING support for the movie and it’s the de facto Best Picture winner.”
Yes – that’s the part that seems like a strong outside possibility now. 🙂
The troll in me would enjoy the fallout. Objectively though no more unwarranted than say Rachel McAdams getting in for Spotlight.
The best comparison, I think. Of course, that movie only had one other actor nominated, whereas Green Book already has two, so they might not feel as compelled to go the extra mile and nominate a third, even if they love it that much. That’s why L.C. still seems an unlikely nominee to me, overall. (Apart from the competition.)
I’m trying to remember what they used for McAdams’ clip at the Oscars. Anyone?
The bit where she went to the door I think
I have an older bet on all three that I think can still win right now (GB, Roma and ASIB), based on the October stat. Equal winnings, so I guess I don’t care much which prevails, in that sense. I’m probably still rooting for ASIB, slightly, over Green Book, but I’d be more than fine with either. Roma would be an O.K. winner too, though it’s far from one of my favorites, whereas the other two are in my provisional top 5 for the year.
None of them are in my personal top 10 so no personal stakes for me (other than financially motivated). After a great year of predicting in 2016 (doubled my wages) I went askew last year with all those concensus winners. So this is my only bet this year because it’s a drug!
🙂 I think the only year I didn’t make an overall profit at the Oscars was the Moonlight year, because I wanted to value bet on it at several points and just didn’t, for whatever reason. I don’t know if I’ve ever doubled, though.
It was the combination of Hidden Figures and Washington at SAG combined with Patel at BAFTA and Moonlight in Best Picture. When La La Land won I was ready to shut the TV off and then people started running off stage and voila!
Last year Lesley Manville (at the BAFTAs) cost me greatly. Which is why I am not predicting Richard E. Grant. BAFTA have always give at least one actibg prize to a Brit (apart from 2011 when they awarded Streep for playing a Brit in a British film). But when one is likely already (Colman) they are unlikely to stray from Oscar contenders any further.
“It was the combination of Hidden Figures and Washington at SAG combined with Patel at BAFTA and Moonlight in Best Picture.”
You predicted all of those? Very nice!…
In a year with so much great films by black filmmakers that shed a light in race relations in America, especially one by the most iconic black filmmaker, Lee, that is also his most “white friendly” film, it’s outrageous the white support for Green Book. Totally expected though,as whites will do whites,and this is THE film to make whites feel good about not being racists. I just hope they assume their biases once they’re called out for it, and don’t be like “I’m not prejudiced, stop it” like they did with #OscarSoWhite
While I agree with a lot of what you’re saying, your position here seems overly reductionist. Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. Sure, it’s embarrassing that Jenkins and McQueen were snubbed for directing, but it’s not like we’re talking about the Hollywood that made Gone with the Wind or even Driving Miss Daisy. The PGA is not Trump’s GOP, and I don’t think it’s useful to apply the same label to white liberals hung up on fantasies of racial reconciliation as we do to the overt or thinly veiled racism that is ascendant in pro-Trump circles. The choice of Green Book merits criticism, but it should be more nuanced criticism.
I kept hearing about how Green Book was charming its audiences but I doubted it. Then I went to the theater, bought a ticket and when I went to sit down, one man told me “Enjoy it, it’s amazing. I rarely go to the movies, but I just saw this for the second time”. The man spilled the tea! Even I, a skeptical beyond measure kind of guy, ended up almost loving the film. Its old-fashioned style that was supposed to work against it is actually a plus. After a series serious dramas, more or less edgy, maybe the industry needs some sort of nostalgia and lightness. Green Book surely fits that bill, and it’s actually the only movie that does (it was The King’s Speech’s advantage too).
My question is: was this man white? Or black, Latino, Asian? I’ve only come across white people who are head over heals for it
He was white. But at my screening, the audience was very diverse.
Most of the people I speak to who have seen and loved it were white. Two co-workers of mine who are black saw it and thought it was very good.
Alright, so I’ll repost a similar story that I first shared in another topic on the site a few days ago:
===
Hey, I wasn’t wild about Green Book when I first saw it at the multiplex near Thanksgiving. But then I rewatched it a second time on screener after Christmas with a college-age friend who happens to be black — and the movie struck a strong emotional chord with him. He got choked up a couple of times, and his reaction helped me see Green Book in a whole new light.
He picked it out of a stack of 30 excellent screeners and I wasn’t going to warn him away from it, but silently I was thinking “ruh-roh”…Luckily, I needn’t have worried. He loved it.
So how about we ALL please effing quit trying to say any of our opinions have any higher moral authority to evaluate a movie than anyone else.
I’m not gonna fuss with you about how you feel about Green Book, Nicholas, because I respect whatever you choose to be bothered about. That’s not Sasha’s intention either. She specifically avoided that territory in this post.
But I’d like to see you try to tell my friend Ricky that he better not like Green Book because [insert your reasons here] because I know he would push right back at you with his own equally valid reasons to disregard your dismissal of a movie he loved.
Ricky is not a guy who gives the slightest shit about the Oscars. But he wanted to borrow that screener so he could let his single-mom family see it. I had to say no. I can’t loan it. But as soon as the retail Bluray hits stores I’m buying it for him , because he wants his mom and sisters to see his 2nd favorite movie of the year. (His #1 favorite is Mission Impossible: Fallout) (The top 10 or 12 Oscar BP frontrunners? I think he’s only seen 3 or 4 of them)
“So how about we ALL please effing quit trying to say any of our opinions have any higher moral authority to evaluate a movie than anyone else.”
You should make your own posts the featured comments sometimes. 🙂 I know it’d be weird, and you’d never do that, but going by their quality alone, irrespective of whose they are, you should…
Dear Ryan,
I don’ think my opinion have a higher moral authority, even so because “moral” is something variable and carries different values from person to person, culture to culture, country to country.
But I’ll always think a black person will have a better take on blackness and racism, a LGBT person will have a better take on LGBT issues, a woman has a better take on feminism and machismo and so on…
It’s not a moral question.
That said I understand what you mean, but a white person using the “but one black person I know…” example is too much a classic white defensive move for me to consider. Like in all times a white person uses the “one black example”, it means that: just one case used to try to soften white discomfort
Sure, I know black people who like Green Book. My roommate and one of my BF adored the movie. But the large majority of my black friends find it problematic. As we see a majority of white critics loving it, and those who are calling attention for the movie’s race flaws are mainly non white.
One thing for me is sure: Green Book’s script is told from Tony’s perspective, it is mainly about the white man experience and it is a movie for white people reflect on how they deal with racism. And it is good it exists, because black people cannot be forever explaining and talking about a problem created by whites.
What bothers me is that when is about white, it becomes universal, while black is niche. When is racism from a white point of view everybody hears it at first, when is from a black perspective it is not that welcomed without questioning.
That seems so true to me that a movie who has an old fashioned by the numbers corny directing (c’mon it even ends with a Xmas scene!) and whose director gave a “Can’t we all get along” speech at the Globes and have shown on other interviews zero knowledge on contemporary takes on race, is still able to win PGA and get its director a lot of nominations.
It’s a white man’s world made for white man’s protagonism.
I’ll come back and reply to some of your other points in little while, Elton.
But just to clarify one thing for you up front. The term “moral authority” has nothing to do with morals or morality.
At one time, 1000 years ago, it may have been a term used by the church to set standards or norms of behavior to which people should adhere or at least aspire.
But the meaning of the term has evolved to encompass more of a sense of universal truths rather than “a question of morals.” — you know that, right?
As such, since so many traditional institutions (churches, government, media) have failed spectacularly in upholding their own standards of behavior that they preac, the term in modern usage is very nearly always seen as a pejorative. Because no one can hold an authoritative monopoly on principles of personal conscience — much less wield any authority to exert or dictate power over any individual’s self-determination of their own feelings.
Again, nothing to do with morals. It’s about personal heartfelt truths, and the push-back that anyone would possess a “moral authority” to tell another person they are wrong for having the feelings they feel.
To say that nobody has moral authority over another person’s perception of what is right or true is simply to say “you’re not the boss of me.”
A nicer way to say it might be “I don’t need your guidance to tell me how I should feel. I respect your feelings and you need to respect mine.”
“but a white person using the ‘but one black person I know…’
I need to stop you right there. You say that’s “classic white defensive move” and instantly tag it as a ploy that you won’t won’t even “consider” as a valid example.
You’re trying to make a personal story that I share, an evening that meant a lot to me, seem like a tactic that I’m in the habit of using.
It demeans me and it also demeans the feelings of my friend. As I said in the original comment, I’d like to see you do that to his face.
It’s up to you if you choose to bluntly dismiss what my friend Ricky feels just because he happened to have his feeling in the presence of a white person.
Just so we’re clear, you don’t know me, dude. I have far more friends who aren’t white than friends who are white. So your insinuation that I know one black person who I can pull out of a hat in a pinch and say “voila!” is insulting. You’re making an ignorant assumption about my life. Please don’t.
“What bothers me is that when is about white, it becomes universal, while black is niche.”
That argument would have made good sense 10 years ago,
This year among my personal top 5 are BlackKklansman, If Beale Street Could Talk,Roma, and Burning. Does that Top 5 look universally white to you?
Expanding to my top 12, the list would include Blindspotting, Shoplifters, Black Panther, Widows, Spider-Verse, and the dreaded Green Book.
Are people of color niche tokens among the finest movies of the year? No they are not.
I’ve been thrilled to see 2 of the past 5 Best Picture winners be films directed by Black directors about the Black experience. Exciting strides have been made and I want to see the trend continue to see an even greater embrace of diversity.
Still a long ways to go to reach equity, but I think we are safely past the point when all of us have to recoil from a movie that portrays a white louse learning how to be a better man by becoming friends with a black genius.
I’m an Asian and Green Book is in my top five of the year. The audience I watched Green Book with was majority black/Hispanic and they were cheering and laughing throughout, applauding at the end. My black co-workers have largely thought highly of the film.
Just because Green Book is winning industry awards from a still-very white film industry doesn’t mean it’s being kicked and dragged into the Best Picture race by white people only. John Singleton, the very first black man nominated for Best Director, had strong praise for Green Book and compared Peter Farrelly to Billy Wilder. Henry Louis Gates and Harry Belafonte have also gone to bat for Green Book.
Relevant observation: no fewer than five of the 29 PGA winners so far have missed for directing at the Oscars (Driving Miss Daisy, Apollo 13, Moulin Rouge!, Little Miss Sunshine and Argo – only the first and last one won Best Picture).
When you put it that way it doesn’t sound like a killer at all… With that stat only (which is obviously not how one would predict but just testing that stat) what we are saying is if green book misses director it still has a 40% chance of winning… That’s not an insignificant chance it’s very close to 50%… Especially given the uncertainty associated with the tiny sample size if we say we want an 80% confidence interval then doing some high school math that I miraculously can still do the probability of green book winning if it misses director nom would be 40% +- 30% so anything from 10% to 70%. So basically what I’m getting at is that this observation isn’t too useful as there’s a good chance that the actual stat would be that “films that win pga but miss directors have a 50/50 chance of winning the best picture Oscar”.
Yeah, but the two that won didn’t also have another major snub to go along with directing. Argo didn’t, and DMD, while snubbed by ACE (I count the DGA snub as equivalent to the Oscar directing snub, and don’t hold it against it twice), was badly hampered by the fact that there were only three nominees for that back then and a single category. It got in for editing at the Oscars, so logic dictates that it was probably in the top five. (Although not certainly.) Green Book would, of course, have two snubs to contend with (directing plus SAG), in that case, and no movie having to beat that rule (two major industry snubs in different categories) has won for about 70 years. Unless you count Daisy, and even then it’s one exception in 70 years. Not commenting on what any of this means (and of course the AFTRA problem could be muddying things up on that front), just stating the facts.
But I think Farrelly gets in anyway. Editing seems like a bigger danger for a miss, no?
“So basically what I’m getting at is that this observation isn’t too useful as there’s a good chance that the actual stat would be that “films that win pga but miss directors have a 50/50 chance of winning the best picture Oscar”.”
No no, of course not. 🙂 I’m not saying that’s why it’s relevant. I’m saying it’s relevant in the sense that it proves PGA winners very much CAN miss for directing, easily. Whatever that means going further…
Oh for some reason I thought from the way you wrote it that this was a reason why Green Book wouldn’t win. My mistake 🙂 But yeah I was talking simply from the perspective of that stat alone. When we factor in other stats I think DMD and Argo are probably far better than Green Book. But then no film makes sense stats wise this year – nothing really feels like it can win (which is why I think we are in agreement that this is such a fun year). I do also think Farrelly gets in. I’ve never taken him out of my prediction tbh. I think if someone misses its McKay but I am this close to just predicting the DGA 5 because I am getting skeptical of Pawlikowski (mostly because I’ve gone for those sorts of calls in the past when there was this bandwagon and I missed and it made me get 3/5 in director predictions) and I just don’t know about who I would put in instead (possibly Lanthimos but I don’t feel good about that either).
Side note, here’s a crazy idea though, what if Cooper misses instead of McKay or Farrelly? It kinda reminds me of the Scott miss (the martian) in terms of he gets in everywhere seems like safe as hell, the movie seems like it could win bp possibly then it never wins bp anywhere and he misses director. I won’t predict it but I actually think its kinda possible.
Editing is so hard too. I feel like it could go so many different ways. I am really looking forward to Oscar nominations on Wednesday (my time) because I think it could be mad! 🙂
“When we factor in other stats I think DMD and Argo are probably far better than Green Book.”
Argo, probably. DMD, only in some respects.
“I think if someone misses its McKay but I am this close to just predicting the DGA 5 because I am getting skeptical of Pawlikowski (mostly because I’ve gone for those sorts of calls in the past when there was this bandwagon and I missed and it made me get 3/5 in director predictions) and I just don’t know about who I would put in instead (possibly Lanthimos but I don’t feel good about that either).”
Yeah, that’s pretty much exactly where I am as well. I have Lanthimos, but I’m expecting to get it wrong. I don’t care enough about getting nomination predictions right to predict the DGA five so that I don’t go 3/5 instead of 4/5. 🙂 I’d rather go for 5/5, even if I only expect to actually GET 5/5 about 5% of the time, if that… But it’s more fun to go for broke when you’re not that invested in the outcome.
“Side note, here’s a crazy idea though, what if Cooper misses instead of McKay or Farrelly?”
I absolutely think that could happen! (And The Martian is the perfect comparison, indeed. In so many ways…) I don’t think it will, because I think he does too much (volume-wise) in that movie (unlike, say, Affleck, who only produced, acted – not very well, as far as I’m concerned – and directed, didn’t also sing or write) and is too well-liked in general to be ignored. But it would make sense in a lot of ways, too. And I think I kind of need ASIB to get snubbed for something at this point, so I don’t have issues with my system. But probably it’ll be more boring than that, and the top 3 are just safe, as is Farrelly. 🙂
I feel like we haven’t gotten TOTAL madness in any category on nominations day since that 2013 triple (or at least double) snub in directing. McDonagh missing was very interesting, but it wasn’t THAT surprising – before he’d gotten everything else, I’d predicted he would get snubbed somewhere. I probably no longer thought it would happen by the time the Oscar nominations were announced, but I certainly didn’t think he was locked, either.
So happy with this outcome. It gives the finger to all the “woke” MFs out there. So glad this particular guild paid no mind to the smear campaign against this film.
I’m glad about that too.
It gives the finger to good filmmaking as well
But that happens most years anyway. But it’s more pleasant when it also gives the finger to the other group… 🙂
Good filmmaking is subjective but smear campaign is a toxic culture.
Green Book – this is SO cool! 🙂 I said I’d be happy as long as Roma didn’t win (because that would probably result in a boring season, in terms of predicting Best Picture, not because I dislike the movie – I don’t), and this is one of the best alternatives as far as I’m concerned. I’m very happy to have gotten that prediction wrong. Not just because I like the movie, but also because it isn’t really going against the stats, as far as I can tell (more on that below), and it 100% keeps things interesting going forward. (The same as an ASIB win would have.) Season done blow’d up!… 🙂
So, Roma’s negative stat (no movie without acting nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG or BAFTA has in fact EVER won the PGA, so this is an even stronger stat than for the Oscars) did work against it, in the end, more than its positive stat (being the only nominated movie to win for picture, director or screenplay at the Critics Choice, which did have that Apollo 13 exception) worked in its favor… Thankfully, Alex prompted me to check whether that first stat also worked for the PGA, a day or two ago, so I no longer thought Roma was a big favorite to win today, as I had originally. I did still think it was the likeliest option.
Anyway, I was of course right about BlacKkKlansman and Bohemian Rhapsody (and Black Panther) not winning (the stats working against those were just too overwhelming, so, like I said, predicting them was an NGNG at best). Green Book fits the pattern of PGA winners a lot more, stats-wise, as the only things it’s missing are SAG Ensemble (which isn’t even a stat when it comes to winning the PGA, at least in the preferential era – The Shape of Water, La La Land and Gravity have all won or tied here without it) and those wins for picture, director or screenplay at the Critics Choice, although, as can be seen above, the only movie that had those and was nominated for the PGA had a stronger stat to overcome. I’m sure there are other stats that were working against Green Book, but I imagine they’re not as prohibitive as Roma’s acting stat. It might have been the favorite, if one factored in Globes stats (screenplay, picture), honestly. I don’t know.
Funnily, it seems the Phoenix Film Critics Society just KNOWS what movie will win the PGA… 🙂 Or they just have ridiculously similar tastes. The only time they’ve not picked the same winner in the last 9 years was when The Big Short won the PGA, and they gave it to Spotlight. (And the PGA tie year, when they, however, of course, picked one of the tied movies, 12 Years a Slave.) Before that, they gave it to Inglorious Basterds vs. The Hurt Locker, then again picked the same winner twice, before the correlation starts breaking down on United 93, etc. – impressive, in any case. 8/9 and 10/12 matching record!
I wouldn’t even say Green Book is an atypical PGA winner. There is, clearly, Driving Miss Daisy, the FIRST PGA winner, which everybody compares it to, but there are also 12 Years a Slave, which is sort of similar, The King’s Speech, which actually seems quite similar to me, Forrest Gump, maybe even Little Miss Sunshine… Also, a surprising number of Golden Globes comedy/musical winners and nominees have won the PGA, beginning with Driving Miss Daisy… then there were Moulin Rouge!, Chicago, Little Miss Sunshine, The Artist, Birdman, The Big Short and La La Land. No fewer than 8 in 30 years! (Only half went on to win Best Picture. Most of the ones that didn’t – as well as a couple that did – had big stats issues: La La Land’s SAG snub and Little Miss Sunshine and Moulin Rouge’s big Oscar snubs.) Anyway, I never said Green Book was out of this race, unlike others. This also is in line with the late October stat, as some may remember – Green Book was in the top 3 predicted at that time.
What this mean for A Star is Born’s chances: movies that won neither the PGA, Critics Choice or Golden Globe for picture, in the BFCA era, but went on to win the Oscar, are Crash (which won screenplay at the Critics Choice), Million Dollar Baby (which won director at the Globes) and Braveheart (which won director at both). The list is narrowing, but not THAT much, and I still think these differences, while important, could also be flukes. I think it can still win. But of course it’s not looking good for it, so far.
There’s little point to giving an intermediate BP prediction at the moment – the Oscar nominations are on Tuesday, as we all know, and could change many, many things. I’ll give one then.
Outstanding Producer of Feature Theatrical Motion Pictures: WTF!
Well it DID beat ASIB & Roma at Toronto… I believe Sasha pretty much called it back then already?
Yes
Is there any shot that Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse shocks the world and gets a BP nom? It deserves it.
I’d say there’s minor stats precedent for it, kind of… (Mostly The Blind Side. Which wasn’t even the same voting system, 100%.) But it’s HIGHLY unlikely.
Finish this sentence:
I hate this PGA win as much as…
Mine- the King’s Speech
Birdman. Even though it was a terrific film, Boyhood’s production was a miracle and the film (one of my favorites of all time) was on its way to an Oscar win.
I don’t hate the Green Book win, but I strongly disliked The Big Short win.
This season is the most amped I’ve been for the pre-Oscar nomination NGNG post. Because I think people are going to go buck-ass wild with their predictions this year, and I think there’s a chance — with a year like this — that some of those crazy predix actually come true.
I’m thinking of something pretty out there for a Best Picture snub…
Funny, I’m thinking something pretty out there for a BP inclusion.
Does thinking Crazy Rich Asians will get nominated qualify as a NGNG? Because I’m flirting with the idea.
That’s the pick I was thinking of! I actually had it on my ballot back in August as the sole bone the Academy would throw to populist film, before realizing just how populist this year would become.
What’s your snub?
A magician doesn’t reveal their cards until the time is right.
The single most memorable image of Green Room was Tony Lip picking up an entire pizza, rolling it up, and taking a big ol’ bite out of it.
If that isn’t prominently featured at least once during the Oscar ceremony, I’m going to send one (1) bad vibe to Peter Farrelly and one (1) ill thought to each of the Oscar telecast producers.
I know a lot of people laugh about that scene but what Tony does is very Italian indeed 😀
I’m not kidding
I wanted more of that and less anodyne racial politics to be quite honest
I didn’t know that was weird to do until I saw the audience react to that scene lol.
Weird, yet probably extremely satisfying in the moment.
I eat pizza like that. I guess that’s my tragic confession of the night.
FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS, 2018-19 SEASON!
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It’s been a crazy ride, and I’ve loved every minute of it. Before posting my final predictions, I would like to thank Sasha and Ryan again for making this such a great community. I never know if Sasha reads my stuff (I know Ryan does- and shout out to you buddy), but I hope she knows I truly respect her strength in voicing her opinions, with no apology, and her passion since having the site since 1999 (my senior year in high school). I will say this—— LOOK up Sasha’s final Oscar predictions on goldderby.com; she is notably vocal about movies she loves and those she doesn’t, but when it comes down to the final inning – she can hit it out of the park. Hence, don’t sneeze at that Viola Davis prediction. Look at her Short Subject/Animation predictions. She gets these right a lot. She often wins the Experts Section. Kudos my love!
And with that, here they are. The picks I have here are my FINAL ones on Goldderby AND AwardsDaily. Contest is entered, and sealed. Not all of my predictions are herd mentality, nor should they. It’s more fun to take a leap of faith!
All predictions ranked in order of likelihood. I suspect 8-9 nominations. So the 10th is sort of a “no guts, no glory”. Guess which one I have?
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BEST PICTURE
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. A Star is Born
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. The Favourite
6. Black Panther
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. A Quiet Place
9. Vice
10. Crazy Rich Asians
Most pundits can agree that we have a comfortable seven (7) nominees- though I am still a bit weary of Bohemian Rhapsody despite the Golden Globe (Drama) award. I also think Vice won’t rank high on ballots, and could be the Best Picture snub most are predicting. Muddled reviews are not good for a movie that’s also political, and in a politically divided country – that can cause friction in votes. I want Crazy Rich Asians to make the cut so badly because it keeps surprising in the places people said it wouldn’t. Still, where else will it place? Adapted Screenplay is PACKED. I have it predicted (as does my other fave Nathaniel on theFilmExperience.net) – but no one else does, save a few Top 24 Users on GD (who are not to be taken lightly).
I also am going to say the surprise will be A Quiet Place. The PGA and WGA (even with The Favourite not eligible) says it’s rising. And I think, again, this is the film the academy is going to deem the glorious Emily Blunt her due. Kate Winslet was in similar territory in 2008. Two (2) films. Her hammy Revolutionary Road performance (that was, along with DiCaprio, horrid). I blame the direction and screenplay however. It was the hyped role, like Blunt’s Mary Poppins Returns. But like Winslet’s performance there, Blunt is uneven as the magical nanny. The bubble bath dive? Oh man, that had me cringing. Her entrance into the house- nice. She goes back and forth with how she wants to play the role- almost patronizing it. Again, this could be because we’re so used to the Julie Andrews role. Blunt is definitely better then who was allegedly supposed to be in the role – Anne Hathaway. But perhaps Hathaway would have taken the role and given it a bit more starch. Who knows. Blunt’s other performance, like Winslet’s Reader, is more stable, mature and epic. The Reader was also a surprise best picture nominee (thanks to Weinstein of course). But I say A Quiet Place is the ‘suspense’ film the academy goes for- not Hereditary. Strong reviews, strong box-office, and a very sustained but strong rising. It’s my pick for the final eight (8). If I’m wrong, oh well. It’s still fun to re-read what you wrote about in your predictions AFTER the nods come out. You’ll see what you got right, and where your brain went bye bye.
I think Best Picture is between Roma and Green Book. The latter just won PGA. And with Globe in hand as well, this is the “politically, social important” film that is also safe. Not too offensive like BlackKklansman might have been. Not in a foreign language like Roma. It just feels sort of ‘meh’ to me. But you can’t let personal feelings get in the way.
I think A Star is Born is sadly- finished. I think Bohemian Rhapsody stole A LOT of it’s thunder. Again, if the studio had placed Cooper’s film in the Musical/Comedy category- I assure you it would have at least succeeded in some major races. Even with Green Book taking Best Picture. I could have seen Gaga easily beating Colman. Cooper beating Bale. But what’s done is done. And again- it’s not all over yet. But for Best Picture, I say these two (2) musicals cancel each other out. Again- a Best Picture winner needs to be of SOCIAL importance! Think Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, The Shape of Water. Social importance can range from racial tensions, sexuality, acceptance, the film industry itself. But because Cooper’s film is still initially a remake, it’s considered ‘entertainment fluff’. Even if it goes beyond that. And Bohemian Rhapsody – is just a big hot mess! And that’s me serving the tea.
I also don’t think Black Panther is going to be as big as we thing- just because the academy seems biased against Superhero films (even though they’re the movies keeping Hollywood alive financially). If Logan is the only ever superhero film ever to be an Adapted Screenplay nominee in this genre, something ain’t right. I don’t like many superhero movies, but I respect those that do. They are definitely not easy to produce- as many “nerds” so to speak- will be very analytical as to whether they are as strong as the comic books (talk to any teenager; they’re very bright in this arena).
I ponder whether First Man can show up here, in which case I guess Claire Foy makes it in supporting. But I just can’t see how they can nominate this movie and not Ryan Gosling, or the writing and direction. It seems a bit random. In terms of a ships having passed, I think First Man’s Shuttle has literally blasted into space- to be remembered in another universe.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
5. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
DGA never matches up 5/5- rarely. So if anything, stick to their lineup if you’re betting in office pools. Adam McKay is popular, but I don’t think Vice will do as well. Still, the guilds might be proving me wrong. My surprise pick is Pawlikowski for his luminous Cold War. So fresh, European and personal. It could be that voters feel foreign language films are only one a slot, and therefore Roma is our solo pick. But because it’s a big frontrunner for Best Picture, I think this won’t distract voters. I was going to pick The Favourite’s helmsman, however instinct tells me- no. Farrelly was also close to being thrown out, but Green Book is definitely rising. Can we give Octavia Spencer a standing ovation right now for being involved in so many Best Picture contenders, including last year’s winner The Shape of Water as an actor, and now an executive producer. She’s like the secret weapon. With Green Book now the favorite, Spencer now could see herself in consecutive Best Picture winners- where she was associated. So amazing.
BEST ACTOR
1. Rami Malik, Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Christian Bale, Vice
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
This is tight bind again with four slots seemingly locked, and one (1) open. However, I have said before: watch out for Viggo not to make the cut. Like McCarthy, he is outshined by his “supporting” player. But Viggo is a reliable nominee, and the academy has shown this with nominating him in the past. So I say he gets it. I am pulling for Ethan Hawke being the ‘passion’ nominee that gets to the top of enough of ballots to make the cut. Usually a critical darling does. The Washington snub is painful, because politically it would be nice if Spike Lee could have a best picture nominee where his leading man was a nominee. But I think Denzel’s son might be too new to the game- his performance a little too subtle. It’s very close. By the way, I hope Cooper wins the Oscar and not Malik. Please academy, make the right decision. Don’t make Bradley suffer the same fate his character in the movie did (well, that might be a bit dramatic).
By the way- why are people predicting Bale to win the SAG? Am I missing something? I think if not Malek, Cooper has a very strong chance. Bale has won already, and yes he plays a real person (which helps)- but I don’t know. Maybe it was just that Globe speech. Thanking Satan? I just don’t know.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Nope, that’s not a typo. I am predicting Ms. Blunt lands her sole Oscar nomination in the Leading race, but not for Mary Poppins Returns. I think it’s A Quiet Place. I have gone back and forth thinking about her in supporting (which she could show up). But like Winslet, who was a SAG nominee in 2008 for The Reader, voters placed her in lead. Granted, category fraud has gotten worse in the past decade. But still. Blunt is not a supporting player in the academy’s eyes. She’s a star. This was HER year. She made two big money movies, and I just think it’s Evelyn Abbott the academy embraces. It is my biggest bet. No one else (I think) has her in lead for this. If I’m wrong, oh well. It’s a fight for the fifth slot anyways. If I’m right, I want PROPS lol. I will not drop McCarthy. I have learned that dropping two (2) “sure things” is risky. You should always want to go 4/5 in many categories, then going 3/5 because you dropped two ponies you overthought as vulnerable. McCarthy is amazing. I think she is actually best in show based on our possible competitors. And she’s a previous nominee, so part of the club. I think Collette, Kidman, Aparicio and Davis are not going to have enough oomph to squeeze in, though Yalitza has the best shot. But unlike every other Foreign Actress nominee, she has gotten NO critic awards or any industry nominations. I am going by that statistic. Even though she is the center of Roma. She is my sixth place. Kidman seventh.
I will say Collette making it would also make my day! People saying she suffers from being in a horror film forget- her ONLY Oscar nomination WAS for a horror film: The Sixth Sense, back in 1999. And yep, it was a surprise nomination. I saw the performance three times in theaters and that car scene alone sealed it.
For the Gaga fans- be warned: Heartbreak has happened in the musical category in best actress before. We all remember it. Audrey Hepburn in My Fair Lady. Leslie Caron in Gigi and An American in Paris. Even with Jane Horrocks in Little Voice (1998) Bjork Dancer in the Dark, 2000. However, those last two were small films (though both were mortally robbed, especially Horrocks! She could SING like other singers, eg Judy Garland. Rent the film, it’s great). But back to Hepburn and Caron. Both are leading ladies in their movies. Both in films that WON Best Picture! Both that would NOT have been as good if they hadn’t been part of it. Both not nominated. Caron might have been a little more expected to not make it. But Hepburn was punished because she “stole” Eliza Doolittle from Julie Andrews, who originated it on Broadway. In fact, it was Jack Warner (head of Warners) who stole the role, infamously saying “no one in the sticks has heard of Julie Andrews.” He wanted a star. And he got one. But she was snubbed. Folks will say it was because of Marni Nixon dubbing her. Not so. Nixon dubbed Deborah Kerr in The King and I, and she got in. This was clearly a shunning. Then Oscar night, Andrews wins for Mary Poppins, and Hepburn has to sit and watch co-star Rex Harrison WIN best actor, and the film win top dice. Audiences knew Warner was the big bad wolf by then, as the applause ended BEFORE he got to the stage to accept the Best Picture award! Remember, Warner is the SAME man who ruined the 1954 A Star is Born with Judy Garland and James Mason. Originally deemed THE film to win the top Oscar when it premiered, after it was deemed too long- Warner cut it in half, and it bombed. Garland lost in a travesty to boring Grace Kelly in The Country Girl. And after giving birth too! She probably doubled the morphine that night.
Gaga (could) have the same fate. A musical performance from a newbie to film (Muppets movie doesn’t count as an acting role). Amazing vocals, underplays, wears no makeup. But does she have a WOW moment? Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls, was also a singer with no prior acting skills. But she had that ONE big musical number. And she won. And Gaga is a far better actress then Hudson. But the academy might deem A Star is Born a success for Bradley Cooper, and throw Gaga the Song Oscar. Not saying it’s going to happen (I have her in), but don’t be shocked. Worse has happened to leading ladies in the past. I want to point out- Jack Warner must have been kicking himself, because Andrews not only won the Oscar for Mary Poppins– she had The Sound of Music right afterwards, and it remains the most successful musical of all time (inflation). Sometimes not getting the role you thought you should have gotten is meant for greater success.
All this means nothing as Glenn Close is poised to win her first Oscar for a film sadly nobody saw ($10 million, August release). Hopefully they will watch her in The Wife , a wonderful performance in an OK movie on the screeners. There is still SAG. This is not over. Gaga (or Colman, or McCarthy) could nab it. It ain’t over till that final envelope. As Sasha once said in her slogan: “Nobody knows anything.”
Can we also say RIP to Julia Roberts in Ben is Back? About the opioid epidemic? She didn’t make ONE list. If this movie had made money at the box-office, she would be in. But because she’s considered a “popcorn” actress, if her film tanks – she does too. If The Blind Side had not made $200 MIL, I doubt Bullock would have made a dent. That’s why Jennifer Aniston couldn’t have her Cake and get nominated too. Not enough people ate it up.
WHEW! Funny how Best Actress is ALWAYS the most analyzed! Just go to Goldderby and see the pages of wonderful gossip to read through.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice
Not a very exciting race. I feel it’s Ali all the way. I dropped Timothee because Beautiful Boy seems like an afterthought. Most have him in though, so this is risky. The biggest throw I am putting in is Rockwell. But he got BAFTA and Globe. And he plays a real life public figure. And it’s a REAL supporting role. But perhaps if he gets nominated, the academy does like Vice more then I think. Driver has been whispered to be the snub, but I won’t bet cards on it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
3. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
4. Emma Stone, The Favourite
5. Amy Adams, Vice
This must be said here and now. King might not make it. Sad but true. She won the critics. She won the Globe. But SAG and BAFTA forgot. And that’s not a good sign. She did win the Critics Choice award, and her Globes speech was, along with Close, dynamite. So I have her in. But If Beale Street Could Talk seems like a ghost that’s trying to be visible in a crowded room. If they don’t watch it, they won’t pick it. I hope they do.
I regret putting Adams back in here. But she does seem to succeed in ensemble pieces. And often for vanilla roles (Doubt, The Fighter). I wish she had gotten it for Enchanted (2007). That was her best work next to Junebug. But I wouldn’t underestimate her considering she probably is winning SAG. Which sucks. It’s literally a default choice! This should go to a deserving candidate. Is ANYONE passionate about this? I remember the Globes earlier this year. Lot’s of folks circled Adams name once King lost a SAG nomination. But they couldn’t explain WHY they were picking her, other then “Oh Regina isn’t here. And Amy’s overdue.” Then King won the Globe. Never underestimate PASSION. And also, a better performance. Amy is better then this.
Both Favourite ladies seem signed, sealed and delivered. Are they? I think Weisz is definitely more sealed then Stone. Are we underestimating a possible snub for the La La Land actress, to make room for the likes of Claire Foy or Emily Blunt, or even Linda Cardellini (Green Book)? I’m keeping them both in as it’s again, unwise to do too much card shuffling. Thus, I say Margot Robbie is my sweet spot. She is the scene stealer in her film, she’s a hot commodity in Hollywood right now, and she’s playing Queen Elizabeth for God’s sake. That’s always the role that anyone can get nominated for. I don’t care if it’s Elizabeth the 1st, 2nd or 11th. If you’re a Queen with Elizabeth next to your name, you’re in honey! I was one of the few who thought Helen Mirren sleep walked in The Queen, and the winner in 2006 should have been Streep in Prada or Dench in Notes on a Scandal. Mirren’s best work to me, remains The Last Station (2009). WATCH it. You will see why Mirren is deemed one of the best ever. But back to Robbie, I think she is the threat to Regina King, not Amy Adams. This remains the toughest race to predict Tuesday. Remember: Robbie has SAG + BAFTA nod. That’s a very strong combo. And she plays a real person. AND she hams it up- in a good way! And she’s not getting nominated? No way. She’s in.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. BlackKklansman
3. Black Panther
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Crazy Rich Asians
Second hardest main category to predict. I have a gut feeling a smaller movie like Leave No Trace makes it, and If Beale Street Could Talk is going to be shamed to only a few nods. However, I am confident with the first three. WGA proved Panther is hitting the right marks. The new membership of the academy will hopefully allow for more open minds. Crazy Rich Asians is my fifth pick (it’s also Nathaniel’s!). Remember My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Unexpected hit, dealing with culture and comedy and romance. A Star is Born is risky not to have here. I admit it. But the second half of the film was not dialogue friendly to me. It wasn’t as strong as the first half. Writers pay attention to these things. Remember – Titanic (1997) : 14 nominations, 11 wins. No screenplay nomination. Not saying that dialogue is comparable. Just noting a popular movie with big stars that swept tech categories, acting, picture, director- and no writing.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. Vice
4. Roma
5. A Quiet Place
Four (4) of these I am confident of. Even Green Book, which I found okay but script wise- felt a little safe. But it won the Globe, and unlike Steve Jobs, its a formidable Best Picture contender. I am saying A Quiet Place takes the spot that really should be First Reformed or Eighth Grade. Which could mean ANOTHER movie we’re not thinking of also gets booted (eg Roma might be it). I might drop Roma for Eighth Grade. I think First Reformed deserves this so much. But believing something deserves something and predicting are two different things. I will be happy if it makes it. I don’t want Vice or Green Book here. However, the latter is getting stronger by the day. Don’t doubt it.
I think A Quiet Place is very much worthy, and again- solidifies itself as a movie that gets Emily Blunt into that Best Actress slot. It’s odd- sometimes to “validate” a nominee making it, the academy has to nominate a movie in another big category. It happened with The Blind Side. Best Picture nominee ONLY to justify Bullock winning for an average at best performance (that originally was pegged for Julia Roberts to star in).
Four (4) of these I am confident of. Even Green Book, which I found okay but script wise- felt a little safe. But it won the Globe, and unlike Steve Jobs, its a formidable Best Picture contender. I am saying A Quiet Place takes the spot that really should be First Reformed or Eighth Grade. Which could mean ANOTHER movie we’re not thinking of also gets booted (eg Roma might be it). I might drop Roma for Eighth Grade. I think First Reformed deserves this so much. But believing something deserves something and predicting are two different things. I will be happy if it makes it. I don’t want Vice or Green Book here. However, the latter is getting stronger by the day. Don’t doubt it.
I think A Quiet Place is very much worthy, and again- solidifies itself as a movie that gets Emily Blunt into that Best Actress slot. It’s odd- sometimes to “validate” a nominee making it, the academy has to nominate a movie in another big category. It happened with The Blind Side. Best Picture nominee ONLY to justify Bullock winning for an average at best performance (that originally was pegged for Julia Roberts to star in).
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Roma
2. First Man
3. The Favourite
4. A Star is Born
5. If Beale Street Could Talk
Cold War probably makes the cut. But maybe the cinematography branch can only tolerate one black and white nominee. But me also thinks that sadly, poetic aesthetic art like If Beale Street Could Talk will miss simply because no one will watch it until it comes on Amazon Prime. And then Tweet “damn, how could we have missed this one?” I have heard many people not like the abstractly unnecessary shots in The Favourite, so that could be booted too. In which case I think Black Panther will rampage through the techs. Watch out for Bohemian Rhapsody stealing A Star is Born slots. It’s like the wicked cousin that is taking the thunder away from a much best movie, both story wise and musically. I hope the academy see’s Cooper’s vision is not just Popcorn fare.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Crazy Rich Asians
I think the academy definitely goes for “loudest” here. Modern costumes are not easy (Devil wears Prada was nominated, and should have won in a landslide). I therefore am picking Crazy Rich Asians for the modern slot- and the gorgeous designs. Yeah, it is sounding like I’m a fanboy for this. But we all have our horses. Mary Queen of Scots is all about elaborate gowns- from the same designer who won for another Queen Elizabeth movie- The Golden Age with Cate Blanchett.
BEST FILM EDITING
1. A Star is Born
2. First Man
3. Roma
4. Vice
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
Another card that I hardly go 5/5 for. It’s just not easy to pick the brains of the editing branch. I will say the first three should be pretty safe (the moon landing alone should get an Oscar in First Man). Vice , like Big Short, is fast- quick- alive. In. And (sigh) I am going with Bohemian Rhapsody because- well perhaps its BAFTA nod? It was nominated right? Too lazy to look up now. Fingers are tired from writing that Best Actress grad paper. I hope some other inspired choices make it. And yep, I bet Black Panther is it. But maybe The Favourite, A Quiet Place, Mission Impossible. All strong editing.
BEST MAKEUP
1. Vice
2. Stan and Ollie
3. Border
I’m going with Nate’s picks here. Read his analysis on thefilmexperience.net (visual categories). Though I think he dropped Vice– I cant seem them not, just because Bale once again is unrecognizable and the academy loves that stuff.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Honestly, I have no clue how to decipher this one folks. Star Wars or Mary Poppins Returns seems more formidable though. But I am risky as you know. I am giving the magical nanny movie the shaft, I know. I just have it in Song and Score. That’s it. What are you gonna do?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Black Panther
2. First Man
3. Isle of Dogs
4. A Quiet Place
5. Mary Poppins Returns
BEST SONG
1. “Shallow”, A Star is Born
2. “All the Stars”, Black Panther
3. “I’ll Fight”, RBG
4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go”, Mary Poppins Returns
5. “Girl in the Movies”, Dumplin’
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. A Star is Born
5. Mission Impossible: Fallout
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. A Star is Born
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. A Quiet Place
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Ready Player One
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. First Man
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Welcome to Marwen
Have you see the latter? Creepy little movie, but very deserving. Black Panther would seem like an easy check, but the visual effects were ironically not the highlight for the movie. And many complained they were not up to par. Lots of competition this year, but sadly I fear it could boot First Man due to the simple fact that Chazelle’s film fizzled.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Break the Internet
5. Mirai
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Free Solo
3. RBG
4. Minding the Gap
5. Hale County this Morning, This Evening
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Burning
5. Capernaum
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. Bao
2. Bilby
3. Lost and Found
4. Animal Behaviour
5. Weekends
Never underestimate cartoons with animals. Ever.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. Black Sheep
2. Zion
3. End Game
4. Women of the Gulag
5. Period. End of Sentence.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. Caroline
2. Marguerite
3. Skin
4. Detainment
5. Icare
Pawlikowski is possible – even the film in BP is not a bad NGNG. But A Quiet Place isn’t happening. Apart from the genre bias, there are stats that specifically say it very likely won’t get in. Hopefully, they hold! I didn’t like that movie.
I respect this opinion. I am sticking with A Quiet Place. I know statistically it might not be perfect but I like to go out on limbs. It’s showing up places more and more. I like the fun of possibilities. Sorry for getting snippy earlier. I admire you very much on here. And value our talks.
Now that was quite rude.
Thanks! (Assuming you were talking about his reply, not mine.) It’s O.K., though, I’m used to that stuff, after all these years, as you can imagine… 🙂 What matters to me is that I know I did nothing wrong. Once I’m sure of that, I don’t really care what anybody has to say about it! I defend my position, of course, because I don’t like it when false claims are made, in any situation, but without getting too emotionally invested, if at all. If I’m NOT sure I’ve done nothing wrong, and in fact I think it’s more likely that I did, after going back through what I wrote, then I apologize. Sincerely. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case here. (I’m still open to being convinced of the opposite, of course. So far, I haven’t.)
I apologize. Sincerely I am sorry. I shouldn’t have said that. This is strictly awards talk, and I took it to a personal level. Please accept my apologizes.
I of course accept. 🙂 I knew you were a very reasonable person! We all get too excited/heated up about these things sometimes, this much is clear. 🙂
So glad. I regretted that earlier comment. I realized I was getting too carried away. Days before the nominations. I am very excited my comment/article was singled out- but I am worried because now eyes are on what I pick and holy cow what if I’m wrong on too many of them haha! I mean, this year is just very hard. If only it was the year I guessed Cooper in American Sniper and Cotillard in 2 Days, One Night.
I know Blunt is a LONG shot. I just think it’s slightly possible. I don’t see her in for Poppins. I do see her in for A Quiet Place. But I am putting her in lead. This could be an Alicia Vikander situation (Danish Girl) and she gets put in supporting. But by putting her in lead, it opens another door for a supporting lady in a very tight sealed race.
I also am not sure about Robbie, but again- I feel her SAG and BAFTA mentions indicate there is a possibility. It’s just that damn Claire Foy. Ugh. This year is crazy. Last year seemed a bit more calm.
AND- what’s funny is I CANNOT change these predictions lol! They are sealed for all to see. Normally I change last minute the night before. But I cannot and will not fold. I must stand by them.
I do feel more confident in my Peter Farrelly nomination for director now that Green Book is PGA/GG winner and best pic favorite. However, comparisons to Driving Miss Daisy (1989) have been lurking. As we know, THAT film’s director was snubbed and the movie won Best Film anyway. Could we see double?
I think Alfonso Cuaron is this year’s Ang Lee. A director who wins two Oscars but who’s film loses the top award. I don’t think Spike Lee is going to win, though DGA could say otherwise.
Anyways I am glad we are okay. I actually admire your dedication to breaking down ALL barriers of the movies and their precursors. It is truly mathematics sometimes (and sometimes shots in the dark).
It was BANASTRE TARLETON. 🙂 Good thing I checked in time to edit!…
“So glad. I regretted that earlier comment. I realized I was getting too carried away.”
Don’t worry about it! 🙂 Like I said, we would have probably been O.K. regardless, but of course it’s much nicer this way, when everything is cleared up. See, folks like you are what makes Awards Daily such a great site to spend time on! Maybe I’d been frequenting all the wrong sites before I came here – probably -, but I didn’t see many (or perhaps any) people willing to admit to their mistakes and apologize (even BANASTRE TARLETON apologized just now for laughing at Sammy’s prediction of Green Book to win the PGA, which I thought was really nice as well) anywhere else, and be reasonable and sensible about it. This place is just great…
“I am very excited my comment/article was singled out- but I am worried because now eyes are on what I pick and holy cow what if I’m wrong on too many of them haha!”
I’d probably feel the same way if I were you. The good thing about predicting all of the categories is most people won’t be able to remember all of your predictions after the nominations are announced, so they’d have to check back here if they wanted to gloat about something, or whatever. 🙂 Me, I only posted BP and BD predictions. People might actually remember those by heart… (Although I doubt that, anyway, because I don’t think anybody cares THAT much, plus of course that wasn’t featured comment.) Anyway, I love how detailed and well-explained your predictions always are, and I agree with A LOT of them. I just don’t feel particularly qualified to comment on anything besides BP and BD, where I studied the stats and precedents. In the other categories, you’re clearly WAY better-informed than I am. I’d just be sticking in random thoughts. (Which I’ll try to do anyway, below, ’cause it’s fun.) In BP and BD it’s less clear. 🙂 I at least know the stats and precedents really well, there.
“AND- what’s funny is I CANNOT change these predictions lol! They are sealed for all to see. Normally I change last minute the night before. But I cannot and will not fold. I must stand by them.”
Yeah, I’m lucky I haven’t felt the need to change anything about BP/BD yet. I also hate doing that, once I’ve said “official” and “final”… It takes some SERIOUS bit of new information/persuasion for me to do it. I almost never do.
“I ponder whether First Man can show up here, in which case I guess Claire Foy makes it in supporting. But I just can’t see how they can nominate this movie and not Ryan Gosling, or the writing and direction. It seems a bit random.”
By the way, I was thinking Selma was a counter-example. Also, when people were saying Birdman winning but Keaton losing didn’t make sense. They do these things sometimes. Especially considering the branches vote on the nominees in every category. Weird, seemingly random things like that, can happen. Like when Affleck missed for BD. Anyway, I have First Man in 10th (and yes, Cold War in 12th, like I remembered), so I think it prrrobably doesn’t get in… But I think it could. The stats aren’t that bad for it.
“If only it was the year I guessed Cooper in American Sniper and Cotillard in 2 Days, One Night.”
Very nice! I think I didn’t even enter the contest that year. 🙂 I had official BP and BD predictions back then, too, but I don’t think I was even trying to predict the other categories. Not sure. Maybe I did.
“I know Blunt is a LONG shot. I just think it’s slightly possible.”
Yeah, I mean, if she gets in for A Quiet Place (in either category), then maybe the movie has a real chance at BP too. (I’m obviously hoping that won’t happen – by the way, I would’ve nominated the kid in that movie, instead, Millicent Simmonds… Her and the score were the things I actually liked about it.) Mad props if you end up being right about that one… Given the stats and everything, I’ll be very impressed even if you’re just right about A Quiet Place for picture, even if Emily doesn’t get in at all!
I’ve always liked the arguments for predicting Robbie. Her getting nominated (possibly even winning) sounds right to me. Of course, as a huge First Man fan, I hope Foy doesn’t miss… But she seems very shaky, sadly.
“I don’t think Spike Lee is going to win”
Nor I. I’ve never bought into that narrative. Seems like an internet thing, not an industry thing. But I could be wrong. 🙂
Thank you very much for this. I know my details can go WAY overboard, but I love writing in general, especially the Oscars. And again- I am glad we settled that misunderstanding quickly. I would have hated to wake up this morning and seen the flurry of ill will going my way, when I had no intention on coming off that way.
Thanks for the vote of confidence too. I am of course now, going over ever sector of my nominations, pulling my hair in frustration for some, and breathing relief in others (like Director, which I now feel fairly confident about with Peter Farrelly).
But again, Oscar voting I believe- started the DAY after the Golden Globes. And they only had one (1) week. Is that a bitt quick? Or has it always been a tight margin.
The fact that they started voting the day after the Globes spells out many possibilities – including:
1) Regina King definitely getting that spot. She may not win the Oscar, but I would be shocked if she was excluded. Not just with the speech, but hopefully voters went home and tried to watch the screener.
2) Bohemian Rhapsody backlash. Oscar voters might have raised many eyebrows with that decision over the likes of Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman and of course, A Star is Born.
3) The Bale speech coming off really awkward. It’s not fair that speeches can effect your chances, but alas- they sometimes do. Ala James Franco (who might have also suffered from those sexual harassment allegations).
4) The underperforming of A Star is Born and Black Panther. Maybe voters felt the surge to put those films to the top – and make sure they got in.
5) Glenn Close has this.
PS- I realize in my analysis of the Best Picture race, I completely forgot to mention If Beale Street Could Talk and it’s absence in my top 10. I think I replaced it with Crazy Rich Asians, as I am still holding steady that A Quiet Place is in the top 8- crazy as that may seem. Jenkins film suffered from a terrible release, no strong theater counts- and being overshadowed by other race oriented fare like Panter, BlackKklansman and Green Book. Much like Mary Queen of Scots , the earlier “period film favorite”, got overshadowed literally by a film called The Favourite – which is- of course- a superior film.
But with King’s momentum that night, does Jenkins prevail stronger then we think? King can still win without a Best Picture nomination (Janney did it with I, Tonya last year). And King’s one hold on this entire race is IF she makes the cut, she is competitive. Because although she isn’t a SAG or BAFTA nominee, she beat Adams at the Globes. So if Adams is our default choice (which I am dismissing; I am predicting Blunt now at the SAGs), their last chance to go head to head is for the Oscar. In which case, I say King is superior. If Blunt wins the SAG and is nominated in supporting, I believe she becomes competitive. However, I am predicting her in Lead. And yep- it’s a drunk sailor prediction.
There I go rambling again!!
“I am of course now, going over ever sector of my nominations, pulling my hair in frustration for some, and breathing relief in others”
🙂 I’m purposely refusing to re-check stuff (like certain stats), so I don’t get tempted to change anything. I’ve never done well when I’ve second-guessed myself anyway, not in most things.
“Oscar voting I believe- started the DAY after the Golden Globes. And they only had one (1) week. Is that a bitt quick? Or has it always been a tight margin.”
Never been good at remembering things such as the chronological order and/or proximity of awards in past seasons. 🙂
I think King will get in, but probably will lose, because the SAG+BAFTA snub stat will just prove too strong. In any case, it’ll be a fun category to check out, precedents-wise, once every result is in.
But I do think Beale is in for BP. Not certain, of course, but I’m predicting it with about as much confidence as Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther…
Sorry, I was at fault there.
I’m going to take back the upvote only because he apologized. Of course I still appreciate the support. 🙂 But it would feel wrong to keep it there, in the new context. (I probably take my upvotes WAY too seriously…)
Where did I say “error”? I’m only disagreeing with your prediction. I’m not saying it’s wrong to make it, or whatever it is you’re reading into it. I’m saying in my opinion it’s very likely you’ll get it wrong. 🙂 That is LITERALLY all you can justifiably read from what I wrote. And I don’t know why you would take that as being negative. (Unless all dissenting opinions are negative. Which I’m sure you don’t believe.)
“That’s my right to my opinion.”
Again, when did I deny you your right to that? See, in my opinion, you’re taking it personally that I don’t like the movie. (Which is certainly an opinion I’m more than entitled to have, just like you are to yours.) YOU are the one being negative here. I expressed a dissenting opinion, nothing more. I said something wasn’t happening, a.k.a. I made a prediction. With conviction. OMG, blasphemy!… If you want me to be more specific, and if it wasn’t clear before, you can add “in my opinion” to that statement on my behalf! (In your mind.) Although I’ve seen people berated here before for criticizing those who didn’t say “in my opinion” all the time, and I think that’s fair, because it’s silly to keep saying that. So I’ll say to you more or less what was said to them (not by me, by the way): this isn’t a mathematical theory site, it’s a predictions and film opinions site. Everything is opinions here. There’s no need to state that every two sentences.
“And AQP has turned up at PGA, WGA and SAG for Blunt.”
I am VERY aware of what it has. I have a table. I’ve studied precedents. PGA nominees that aren’t also on the Critics Choice list for BP miss A LOT (76% of the time – 13/17 have missed, including the likes of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), even when they’ve been performing MUCH more strongly than this. Of course it can get in, but it’s very unlikely. And the genre bias, in my opinion (thanks for making me write that 20 times, by the way), makes it even less likely.
“This is the first time I’ve been featured, and that’s all you have to say? :-(”
BP (and BD, by association), particularly the relevant stats, are all I truly care about for 95% of Oscar season. I thought you knew that already. But it’s O.K. if you didn’t. And should I comment on the part of your predictions I agree with? (Which is everything else – for BP and BD – besides Crazy Rich Asians in 10th. Stats again.) Wouldn’t that be boring?
And I didn’t even make only a negative comment. I also acknowledged Pawlikowski was possible. I don’t think that’s a bad prediction at all. The only reason I’m not going there myself is that, statistically, I would have to also predict Cold War for BP (since Foxcatcher is the only exception to that rule – BD without BP in the preferential era), and that’s less supported by stats. Still a possibility, and I think I had it in, like, 12th or something, when I made my own official and final predictions for BP and BD – but less likely. And I want to be consistent between BP and BD, for obvious reasons. So I have Lanthimos. (Although I too have serious doubts about that.)
There, that long enough for you?… And yes, of course you came off harsh. Uncalled for and completely unjustified. But it’s O.K., I’m not upset, as long as you acknowledge you overreacted (maybe for the reason I assumed above, maybe not – it’s not very important), and not based on anything I wrote – which is there for all to see, unedited. I’m not a grudge-holder, far from it. Even if you say nothing in reply, I’ll probably forget about it completely in a while. And of course I’m used to people sometimes taking things too personally for no good reason. Online and not only. I’m sure I do it too. I hope I’ve apologized for it at least most times!
I sincerely apologize Claudiu. I still remember when we both got Big Short right for the PGA in 2015. That was a great moment. I promise not to take ANYTHING you say in context to debate personally again. It was an overreaction on my part.
Oh, I was predicting that too? 🙂 Yeah, I guess I was… Since I had it for BP, after Spotlight missed at ACE, I guess I would have had to have it for PGA as well. (I no longer always operate under that assumption, but I do remember I did at the time – before PGA got it wrong twice in a row.)
Cool! Yeah, that was an amazing moment! Green Book winning this year (even though I of course hadn’t predicted it – nor did I think it couldn’t happen, unlike, say, for BKKKM or BR or Black Panther, but that’s of course different) is almost as interesting as that bombshell. (In terms of what was being predicted.) I love it!
It will be interesting to see what wins SAG. I have no clue. Headlines are everything now a days, and recently it seems that the WGA winners sometimes have the final say/as do (sometimes) BAFTA. I don’t think BlackKklansman is Ensemble winner. I think Black Panther/Star is Born actually.
OH ALSO! I realized that Sam Elliot is only a SAG nominee, correct? No BAFTA/Globe? Ouch. I think I should have dropped him and kept Timothee. I think Rockwell still gets in for his amazing Bush impersonation.
Again- the back and forth decisions we make days before the announcements. Fun fun fun !
THERE I actually think Black Panther is a possible winner. All five can win, I think. Nothing feels strongly like it’s a filler nominee. (Unlike, say, a Trumbo, or whatever.) Although there ARE some stats working against BR & CRA. (More below…)
There aren’t too many stats for predicting SAG, of course, but there are some patterns. The PGA winner, when nominated for SAG, wins about 50% of the time. Not the case this year. The only two times it wasn’t (the last two years), a movie snubbed for directing at the Oscars won SAG. (Hidden Figures and Three Billboards.) Probably coincidence, since, in general, SAG winners are snubbed for directing and/or editing at the Oscars/guilds A LOT, well over average, I would say. 13/23, in fact, were industry-snubbed for one or the other. (I found some logical connection there a couple years ago, I believe.) Also, of course, the only movie not nominated for BP to win SAG was The Birdcage. Which only had one Oscar nomination, so it almost definitely would have missed even with the current system in place. And, since I don’t think Crazy Rich Asians is likely to get in, I think that’s the weakest possibility out of the five. (Though not out of it.)
Also, a lot of the SAG winners were strong in screenplay, usually very strong. I believe, on a quick scan, that ALL of them were either WGA nominees or ineligible but obviously extremely strong in that category, in spite of that. (Even The Birdcage had the WGA nod.) And they have very, very few major screenplay snubs anywhere between then, and most of them have at least one big screenplay win. A lot of them dominated screenplay. This year, that just isn’t the case for Bohemian Rhapsody – or CRA -, which is why it’s the second-least likely. Both actually missed the WGA nomination. Black Panther follows, but that one at least is a WGA nominee, as well as in at the Critics Choice for that. (Missed BAFTA and Globe – but the latter is hard to get and the former was a clear case of European sensibilities.) And it’s DGA and ACE-snubbed, the only one in the field. (BR and CRA are also DGA-snubbed, but got ACE and both have the WGA issue.) So I’d say it still has good chances of winning. But the two most likely seem to be BlacKkKlansman (because it seems the strongest in screenplay) and A Star is Born (because it’s not been snubbed anywhere for that, except at the Globes, but, there, SAG winners DO miss often enough, since there’s a single category – 7/23, for 30%, have missed… in fact, I notice now that ALL of the SAG Ensemble nominees this year missed for screenplay at the Globes, and that this had NEVER happened before), which actually might miss for editing at the Oscars, thus fitting that pattern, whereas BKKKM I doubt misses for that or directing. So, I’d rank their chances:
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. A Star is Born (a very close second)
3. Black Panther (but a VERY close third)
4. Bohemian Rhapsody (Jesus Alonso would disagree)
5. Crazy Rich Asians (very unlikely but still possible)
I’m going to post these discoveries above, too. They’re pretty neat. 🙂
“OH ALSO! I realized that Sam Elliot is only a SAG nominee, correct? No BAFTA/Globe? Ouch. I think I should have dropped him”
Yeah, SAG+BFCA. I probably should’ve dropped him too, given how badly ASIB is underperforming in terms of wins. But I don’t really believe in Rockwell getting in… I honestly don’t remember what five I predicted for the contest. 🙂 But I do know Rockwell wasn’t among them, and Elliott was. Not sure who else I left out.
“Fun fun fun !”
In the sun, sun, sun… 🙂 (I love Red Dwarf.)
In fact, I’m sorry I got a little harsh too – everything I said could probably have been said in a nicer way! 🙂 Further proof, if there was any need, that I, too, take it a bit too personally, sometimes…
You’re a true sweetheart. I have to remember that when we as people communicate online, texting- words can be taken out of context and we hear them in a different way then is actually said. This is why Twitter wars happen. You’ve never meant harm. You see things for what they are, and I am learning to do the same. I admit- I am an emotionally invested predictor lol. And once I have my claws set on a movie I can’t let it go (eg Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place).
I did have to sadly let First Reformed go in Screenplay, but boy if that makes I will smile.
Thank you! I don’t deserve quite such nice words, but they’re nice to read, nonetheless… 🙂
“I have to remember that when we as people communicate online, texting- words can be taken out of context and we hear them in a different way then is actually said.”
I know… You wouldn’t BELIEVE how much I edit at least my longer comments to allow for that – in the attempt to make sure there’s virtually no way anybody misunderstands or has a problem with anything I say. Which isn’t always successful, even after all that work. 🙂 It’s not easy to get what you’re trying to get across 100% online.
“I admit- I am an emotionally invested predictor lol. And once I have my claws set on a movie I can’t let it go (eg Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place).”
I’m the opposite in fact. My subjectivity when predicting is on the side of NOT predicting the things I love, if there’s any serious doubt they’re getting nominated/winning. 🙂 Which is why I’d maybe never put First Man in my top 9, even if I thought it had a better shot than it does. (I think it’s about 25-30%, objectively speaking, so it probably happens to be just outside the top 9, in this particular case. But if it was, say, about as likely as or even slightly more likely than Black Panther, then I’d definitely be predicting the latter – which is another movie I didn’t like. I hate total disappointments. If I’m going to get disappointed, I might as well at least improve my chances of getting my prediction right.) And one of the reasons I didn’t predict The Big Sick last year. (Along with genre bias and some serious precedents for the miss.)
Saw your comments on awards daily and was highly intrigued by the idea of Blunt being lead for A Quiet Place. When I saw it, I felt strongly that she deserved a Best Actress nomination but then Mary Poppins and a crowded field… Anyway, would love to see this happen. At the end of the day, I believe the academy shows the best judgment compared to GG, CC, and SAG. An obstacle for sure is Toni Collette being in another horror movie.
You have guts to still predict Roma as the Best Picture winner
Godspeed
I don’t think this PGA win is in any way indicative of an end to the race. Green Book is absolutely out in front right now, but we’re in a time where guild stats aren’t the bulletproof indicator they once were.
Yeah Green Book has enough stats weaknesses that it isn’t a lock yet, just very likely.
To be fair from a nomination perspective it makes sense – its probably the most likely to be nominated of the bunch – that doesn’t necessarily mean its winning
Oh I don’t think it’s winning as easily anymore. But ranking it first makes sense with preferential. Usually Best Picture with Preferential is “second” place, as I’ve been taught (though could be wrong).
I wanna be ballsy and predict Linda Cardellini in Supporting or Viola Davis for Actress or Gosling for Actor, but I just feel like, for all the excitement and unpredictability, this will be a fairly safe set of Oscar nominations.
EDIT: Woops, responded to wrong post. Solid predictions though!
I’d love to see Crazy Rich Asians come up here. It is a solid movie often written off as a simple romantic comedy. Michelle Yeoh is overdue for Oscar love and their track record with nominating Asians is horrendous, but I feel that Awkwafina is the one who really deserves a Supporting nod (though I realize it’s not going to happen). She brings life to it in the same way as Melissa McCarthy did in Bridesmaids and Tiffany Haddish did in Girl Trip.
So if Green Boom wins Best Pic, it makes it two years in a row the SAG Ensemble nomination has failed. And to think that was the most important stat.
I have been saying for a few years now AFTRA matters. SAG isn’t what it used to be…
Can definitely be the case. But we don’t know for sure yet.
Yeah actually when I wrote that I intended to write it as what I said is very possible but also let’s see if a star is Born ultimately wins because I still think that’s very possible. Though that’s not what I ended up writing at all
“Green Boom”
Now that’s a sequel I’d watch! A demolition company breaking down buildings AND racial divides.
I’ve already registered with the WGA the title for my 1970s coming-of-age adventure, Greek Booty.
I’m more interested in what this means for Tuesday. Is Green Book going to pop up in places people aren’t necessarily expecting? I mean, if the voter base really goes all-in for Green Book, I wouldn’t be that shocked to see Linda Cardellini show up in BSA, or for the movie to get nominations for something like Production Design or Costumes.
Of course, this could just be another Little Miss Sunshine situation, where a movie unexpectedly wins PGA and it prompts everyone to declare the race all but over.
Awards season is toxic. Had Green Book never been in the conversation for awards, people would have enjoyed it much more. Same for Roma and A Star Is Born, and BlacKkKlansman.
That is why awards shouldn’t be taken seriously. It’s Hollywood giving awards to Hollywood.
Well said.
Couldn’t agree more.
Generally true. But . . . but . . . there are those moments. If “Brokeback” had beaten “Crash”, wouldn’t gay rights in general and same-sex marriage in particular have gotten a bit of a boost, or at least gotten a bit more thoughtful consideration from a few more people? And to me the “Spotlight” win carried a ring of social responsibility, a quiet but undeniable sense of outrage, not just another instance of Hollywood patting itself on the back. I think movies, and by extension movie awards, can make a difference. Not much. But some.
Some years are very important indeed, and certainly the Brokeback year will remain infamous. But generally, they don’t have that much of a social value. We’re not in 1970s.
Never say never, is all I say.
Wait, really?
Oy. And here I just predicted that Green Book probably won’t get in for Director.
It would probably complete the comparisons to 1989 and Driving Miss Daisy. Hell, at this rate, I wouldn’t be shocked if Blackkklansman missed out just so we could really go full-89.
That’s just rubbing it in.
I’ll be even sadder if Beale Street gets snubbed in Picture.
Almost 20% of the previous PGA winners missed for director. (5 in 29.)
Ok but how many since the expansion?
Argo. 🙂 Which still won BP.
I wrote this five days ago on here under the article about Kareem Abdul Jabar defending Green Book.
“You know, despite all these “controversies” I can still see Green Book weathering the storm and going all the way. It’s almost like being a Trump supporter…once you are on board the train, you ain’t getting off. It’s starts with a little thing you can forgive (Viggo saying the n-word) and then as things go on, more problems arise, but you are committed. Ali just won Critics Choice, so it hasn’t been completely shunned yet. Of course, if it does win it will be mentioned alongside Crash as the worst Best Pic but it seems you are going to make anyone happy this year. As I look through the comments I see every film (barring the Favourite) being accused of being the worst potential Best Pic winner.“
Sure Roma winning Best Pic would be a very anti-Trump statement but so would this film for the simple reason it’s also race and inclusion etc. But it’s a lot more popular and has a broad appeal, even more so than Moonlight. So I stand by my prediction and think it will win Best Pic.
“As I look through the comments I see every film (barring the Favourite) being accused of being the worst potential Best Pic winner.”
Unsurprisingly. 🙂
How I thought the PGA would go…
1. Black Panther – tribute to Kevin Feige. But they went with a special award to him, so I switched to
2. Bohemian Rhapsody – the producers film of the year, made a success because of the producers despite a troubled production
3. Green Book – producers are mainly Hollywood millionaires that pretend to be liberals but are conservative at heart… a soft film about racism would always be their vote, they owe nothing to Peele and Lee, they would never vote massively to BKKKM when they had something more “white” in the line, as Green Book
4. A Star is Born – because it’s been a phenomenom all year long
I didn’t think anyone beyond these four had an actual chance of winning.
SAG Ensemble, WGA and DGA will be completely different stories as the profile of their members is really, really different. But Green Book has PGA + GG already, and will likely win WGA, too. That combo may be enough.
As I said before, Oscar right now would be…
Picture – Green Book
Director – Cuarón, Roma
Actress – Close, The Wife
Actor – Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Supporting Actress – King, If Beale Street could talk
Supporting Actor – Alí, Green Book
Original Screenplay – Green Book
Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
Editing – Green Book (yeah, why not? but could go to Roma, BKKKM, First Man, Bohemian…)
Cinematography – Roma
Costume – The Favourite
Production Design – The Favourite
Score – First Man
Song – Shallow, A Star is Born
Sound Editing – First Man
Sound Mixing – Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects – Black Panther
Make Up – Vice
Doc – Won’t you be my neighbour?
Animated – Spider-Man: into the Spiderverse
Interesting… But the first two of those were never going to win. 🙂
For you A Star is Born is just Shallow
pun intended.
But let’s summarize, ok?
Director – do you really think Cooper is going to upset Lee AND Cuaron?
Actor – do you really think Cooper is going to upset Mortensen in BP frontrunner, AND Bale AND Malek? Even worse, if Redford gets a nom, are they going to vote for Cooper over Redford?
Actress – do you really think they’re giving it to Gaga over Close AND Colman?
Supporting Actor – Ali is the frontrunner, then Grant. Elliott right now will be happy to be nom’d.
Adapted Screenplay – it’s uncertain it will even be nominated here
Cinematography – this is Roma
Film Editing – it could happen, but this goes normally with Best Picture, so given the factors, Roma, Green Book, Blackkklansman or Bohemian Rhapsody are likelier winners than ASiB, at this point.
Sound Editing – it could happen, but this is First Man or Bohemian Rhapsody to lose, so far (more on this in the next)
Sound Mixing – the fact that they combined Mercury’s, Malek’s and a impersonator’s voices for the final singing voice of Mercury, makes this one almost locked win for Bohemian Rhapsody
… and that’s it. There you have it: Song for Lady Gaga, and that’s it.
I kinda like this year in the sense that: I don’t personally see any of the likely best picture winners as being more than 3-3.5/4 movies so I can kinda sit back knowing I am not too invested in any of them and just enjoy the fun of the internet freaking out – add that to the fact that I have no idea what wins Oscar so its a super fun race!
It is indeed a super fun race. It’s surprising and makes you want to squeal, but I guess that’s where the fun is!
I think we have to start thinking backwards about how to predict this year’s awards. Green Book winning PGA tells us that there is now a backlash to what the presumed more “awards worthy” films are to the voters. They’re gonna vote for what they love, now matter what controversies prop up. I think Green Book is now in command to win Best Picture, and I think we just have to get used to it. Sorry if that makes you mad or sad. I will give you a hug if you need one.
Also, I suggest if you are mad, please take a deep breath and say “goosfraba”. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f61b819708ef9ef4a26050942c6b73d50f1134dfcfa4a2b7a165e09cdbf0e7f3.gif
Would the world become more miserable if Green Book wins??
I don’t think it can get more miserable than it already is. *Shrugs*
My Oscar betting party will become more miserable when I put all my chips on Green Book while others are betting on Bohemian Rhapsody.
I try to profit from the Academy’s bad decisions.
Yup
Lmao this awards season is so fun. No way does Green Book win Best Picture but I’m LOVING the meltdowns.
get used to it… and if Bohemian Rhapsody wins SAG Ensemble, things are going to get really, really fun in these talkbacks.
That might be the one Best Picture winner that would cause more chaos here than Green Book.
… and I’d love to see that happens. Honestly, I think BR is a way better film that it is credited to be. Not Best Picture in my opinion, but to see the faces of everyone that bashed it as “crap”, not even paying attention to what the film was doing… oh, that would be a delight.
… and I’d love to see that happens. Honestly, I think BR is a way better film that it is credited to be. Not Best Picture in my opinion, but to see the faces of everyone that bashed it as “crap”, not even paying attention to what the film was doing… oh, that would be a delight.
The reason we’re not paying attention is that it’s not winning.
I’m telling you, Linda is gonna get a supporting actress nomination.
If this happens, along with directing and editing, that will probably be when I change my Oscar prediction to Green Book (or when it wins WGA).
Farrelly now looks as a viable DGA upset to both Lee and Cuarón. Cooper can’t, he’s winning first-time director at that ceremony, it’s the same why Feige didn’t win PGA, he had a special award, aside his Black Panther nomination.
“Farrelly now looks as a viable DGA upset to both Lee and Cuarón.”
THAT I doubt… Of course it’s possible, but I don’t see it happening. This is not The King’s Speech!
If that happens I am definitely changing my prediction to Green Book. I really think Farrelly is in 4th at best for director though. If Green Book wins picture I think its a split year. But who knows – I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again!
Looking more likely now. 🙂
What would her Oscar clip be? Serious question. Her getting nominated would be like Jacki Weaver getting in for Silver Linings Playbook.
As an Australian I am obliged by the Commonwealth law to inform you that Jacki Weaver is a national treasure and no slander of her will be tolerated.
Having seen her Oscar-nominated performance in Animal Kingdom, I agree that she is a wonderful actress. She brings nuance in that “evil bitch” role, but really her nominations for SLP is unnecessary.
No slander meant!
You just answered your own question. When a movie is loved, nominations that weren’t expected get swept into the mayhem. Weaver for SLP = Linda C.
So, the Oscar race changes to…
1. Green Book (GG Comedy + PGA, expected to likely win WGA. If Farrelly wins DGA, it’s a sealed deal, we’ll be likely watching a split year with Green Book winning Best Picture and either Cuarón – likely – or Lee – now, longshot but possible – winning Director)
2. Roma (frontrunner to win DGA)
3. BlacKkKlansman (if it wins SAG Ensemble and DGA it may be unstoppable, but it’s shaky on both counts due to competition, WGA would help)
4. A Star is Born (a surprise SAG Ensemble win and if Cooper wins both DGA noms, that may transfer to Oscar success)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (needs to win SAG Ensemble to stand a chance, which can happen, and then wait).
6. Vice (DGA and WGA are needed, and to wait)
But overall, at this point, I think the game is over unless surprise. Green Book, Cuarón, Malek, Close, Ali, King, Green Book in Original and BlacKkKlansman in adapted
Please can win stop with the BlackKKK rubbish. It’s not winning anything but maybe screenplay.
I always said that BKKKM needed to win 2 of 3 key awards to become the logical Best Picture winner: GG Director to set things in motion or then SAG Ensemble and then, compulsory, DGA. It lost the first one, but it’s a likely winner of the second and still in fight for the third. Losing WGA would be definitive, but if actors – SAG Ensemble – love it and directors make a wink to Hollywood in its direction, Oscar would be following. So, it would be foolish to deny it is still in the running, as we haven’t reached the critical point yet. For what we know, we could see Bohemian Rhapsody winning BAFTA British Film and SAG Ensemble, plus some guilds (Costume, Sound) and reach buzz enough to do well in the Best Picture voting and upset everyone. It ain’t over till is over. We have 4 critical ceremonies to come: SAG, BAFTA, WGA and then Oscars. And the result of the last one is the Oscars, if I remember… the other three will give out the results on voting time, am I a wrong? The bad luck for Green Book, is that this victory comes AFTER voting for nominations closed (it could have helped it to earn more noms) and before actual voting for wins start (which will benefit SAG, BAFTA and WGA winners).
And what about the Death of Stalin?? It has no nominations at all!!
‘carter baizen’
email me. ryanadamsAD@gmail.com
you and I need to reach an understanding.
I put my money on Spike Lee and now you are switching to Cuaron..you said the Academy was tired of the Tree Amigos…
I’m not a fan of the smear campaign, but dial it up to 10, Green Book can’t win BP. Please.
One more time to remind you Americans and British: how bad you are at awarding your best. You really denied BP or Directing Oscars to Linklater, Tarantino, Fincher, Nolan and Ridley Scott to give one to Tom Hooper and Peter Farrelly? Are you kidding me?
Tom Hooper is a master of directing, as shown in both The King’s Speech and Les Miserables (a musical I can’t stand, made bearable by the director). Peter Farrelly? Odd to write this, but the Farrelly brothers – as most directors specialized in comedy, as Frank Tashlin, the ZAZ team or Frank Oz – have always been underrated… mostly because their style does not bring attention to themselves *cough* Roma *cough* but serves the film, the actors, the screenplay, and to make films that flow seemingly effortlessly from beginning to end. When in a film, you don’t really notice the director’s work, most of the times you have a director who served the story and not used the story to bring attention to himself. The Farrelly brothers.
By the way, there’s a precedent of a similar case to Green Book. “Airplane!”‘s Jerry Zucker, part of the ZAZ team, went on to earn a Best Picture nomination with “Ghost”, which won Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay. It’s odd that Green Book seems to be the frontrunner for Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor, it’s a bit of Oscar History repeating.
I actually like Les Mis a lot. The King’s Speech was good for me at first viewing, average at second and mediocre at third. It aged horribly. The Danish Girl is just not good.
“When in a film, you don’t really notice the director’s work, most of the times you have a director who served the story and not used the story to bring attention to himself.”
Yeah… the problem is when the best stories you can bring are Dumb and Dumber, Shallow Hall, Me Myself and Irene…
Hooper got screwed out of a nomination for Les Miz, and the fact it lost to Argo, well, there just aren’t enough novenas that can be said in this life that can atone for that sin.
He deserved the nom for Les Mis but can’t feel bad for that… he beat Fincher, Aronofsky, Coens, Russell, Nolan, Boyle, Granik, Unkrich and Affleck (I think The Town is tremendously better than The King’s Speech). That Directing win is one of the most outrageous things in the history of the category.
Aronofsky did deserve it
I’m new to the world of cinema and haven’t watched that many movies so I’m gonna ask, is the clause “not to bring attention to himself” referring to auteur directors?
Not that surprising really, I always said I thought Roma, Green Book, A Star Is Born and BlacKKKlansman had approximately equal chances of winning here. I went A Star is Born, others went Roma, others went BlacKKKlansman, in the end I would say it was pretty close because different people seem to love different movies. Interesting that Green Book would win under preferential ballot though, since it seems the most divisive of the lot. I think to me Green Book really needs to win at WGA before I seriously consider it winning though. Which I think it very much could. We will see.
“Interesting that Green Book would win under preferential ballot though, since it seems the most divisive of the lot.”
ONLY if you think the voters care about the controversy or critical reception. If you don’t, then it’s probably the LEAST divisive…
That is true but I can’t help but feel it must penetrate the voters somewhat – it seems 3 billboards did somewhat (or they just liked shape and get out better – I imagine it’s a combination of both). I guess the question isnt really does it penetrate voters (at least a few must’ve heard about it) but more how much that affects it e.g. only 5% of Oscar voters care about the scandal or do 30% care or 50% or what – this result says it’s probably closer to the former…
I can’t get a good read on this year though because even ignoring the scandal I would’ve expected other films to be less divisive. I wonder whether it’s less green book is not divisive with voters but more people who aren’t affected by the scandal actively love it… Toronto
already showed us that people love it, despite what some people around here may think of it there are a lot of people who passionately love Green book – I don’t think there’s any denying that… So obviously it was loved enough and not so divisive that it could win here. It’ll be interesting to see what happens going forward. I think there are still lots of different narratives that can pop up between now and the Oscars and I for one am excited for it! ☺️
That is definitely the question! 🙂 How I wish I knew the answer to that!…
I’m also VERY excited about this race… It’s exactly what I’d hoped for.
In terms of suspense and a stats mess.
Not really that suprising Green Book wins.
I went with A Star is Born as I felt it needed this PGA to build some momentium. But who knows. Green Book seems like the safe choice that most don’t love or hate. They just think it’s a good film. Not great. It has heart. Maybe that’s all it needs…
For example, I always thought BKKKM was the logical Best Picture winner at the Oscar but NEVER thought it could win this
Well, well, for all the talk of the Woke White left and the box-office chasing industry, Hollywood seems even odds to give BP to a typical Oscar movie from the 90s. Never underestimate the appeal to white liberals of being shown how they can bond with the Other. (I know better but I, too, was more charmed by GB than anything else I’ve seen this year.)
Hollywood is only liberal on its face. Don’t be silly now. The people with the most money are not liberal, never were.
But they like movies that tell them they are. And I don’t think Hollywood has ever cared that films based on real people and events are, in Andrew’s words, “simplistic, sanitized (and likely inaccurate.)” That’s the rule, not the exception.The ideology within the film has problems and that might put off voters who actually are Woke, rather than posturing about being so. All the extratextual controversies matter far less than online voices would have one believe.
There is no person called Hollywood. An amorphous group of people who work in the same industry do not think the alike. Films are supposed to evoke emotions.
I really don’t get it, from when it won the audience award. The theatre I saw it in was packed. People loved it. People clapped. The people I saw it with loved it.
I don’t get it. It’s a simplistic, santised (and likely inaccurate) story. Trying so hard for a feel good factor.
Obviously working for a lot of people.
“(I know better but I, too, was more charmed by GB than anything else I’ve seen this year.)”
Ibid.
Is it maybe okay to relax and let movies manipulate our emotions the way movies have been doing to audiences for 100 years?
I wouldn’t say it’s the one movie that charmed me the most but I strongly disagree with the Crash comparison. That one was preachy and didactic, this one is just simplistic. But I don’t think is manipulative. Far from awards worthy (but who cares, really), but sweet.
Because Oscars so rarely go to the best films of the year, the ones that stand the test of time, why not give in to the feel good? Of course, I’m of a generation that never expected the BP race would be about anything else. Plus some of my fondest memories of movie-going with my parents involved the likes of Driving Miss Daisy, In the Heat of the Night, or the never-a-contender Dave, my mom’s favorite from the 90s.
“Because Oscars so rarely go to the best films of the year, the ones that stand the test of time, why not give in to the feel good? Of course, I’m of a generation that never expected the BP race would be about anything else.”
Agreed.
“Is it maybe okay to relax and let movies manipulate our emotions the way movies have been doing to audiences for 100 years?”
Oh, this! SO this!… I’ve been saying this for ages… (Not just about Green Book, I mean.)
It’s fine to find some enjoyment out of a movie like Green Book if you’re into that sort of thing, but these awards bodies aren’t supposed to just be about what’s “good,” they’re supposed to be about what the very best movie of the year is. They’re supposed to be about legacy. If you hold yourself up as the arbiters of taste and the builders of legacy you should be thinking about what you’re doing a little harder than to just “relax and let movies manipulate our emotions.” Critics generally accept the responsibility to actually think about what they’re watching and that’s why they generally aren’t calling Green Book the best of the year, and these award bodies should be similarly introspective.
“Well, well, for all the talk of the Woke White left and the box-office chasing industry, Hollywood seems even odds to give BP to a typical Oscar movie from the 90s.”
Shocker! 🙂 Kind of invalidates a lot of the arguments thrown at A Star is Born’s chances, too… Which of course doesn’t have PGA, but that’s not a deal-breaker.
I think ASIB looks shaky.
Roma was not an obvious PGA choice so it’s still in the race
This is entirely a “pc-pushback” much like what this site constantly bemoans. Congrats yall!
If Driving Miss Daisy can win Best Picture so can Driving Miss Daisy 2
It’s not Driving Miss Daisy, it’s Planes, Trains, and Automobiles.
Or Midnight Run or Rain Man. The racial dimension disguises its affinity with 1980s mismatched buddy road movies.
So Cuaron could personally win at least four Oscars in one night but not BP.
And he’d join Ang Lee as a two time directing winner with no BP win
Don’t forget George Stevens
Unless there is a shocker and Spike takes it
Not likely based on this pattern
Green Book so far this season to its many, many detractors, “If you should strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine!”
The troll is strong with this one. LOVE IT!
RIP A Star is Born and Blackkklansman
It’s Green Book vs Roma now
Nope. BKKKM was never expected to win this, in my opinion. We will know its fate through SAG Ensemble and DGA.
Good point. But BAFTA and DGA are Cuaron’s to loose. And neither Roma nor Green Book have a SAG ensemble nom. That stat will be broken once again
“And neither Roma nor Green Book have a SAG ensemble nom. That stat will be broken once again”
Not if ASIB or BKKKM win.
I am not that sure Cuaron is winning BAFTA. Almodovar won for Talk to Her over Polanski there. They can go for Lee (similar case to Almodovar: legendary foreign independent author) or Lanthimos
DGA is a done deal. SAG ensemble is where things could get hotter.
This just in: Roma’s odds at winning Best Picture have now equaled John Blutarsky’s GPA 0.0. Stop listening to critics, they will drive you off the cliff every time.
I won’t go that far. But if Yalitza doesn’t get nominated for Best Actress THEN I agree.
And she won’t be. Emily Blunt and Melissa McCarthy have made far too much money for this town to be ignored.
You’re probably right – but I don’t think Emily Blunt will get nominated either weirdly enough.
I’m expecting that fifth slot to go to a curveball.
Bite your tongue! Mary rules!
Wow. Golden Globes and the PGA?
They both know that Most Popular was scuttled, right? This is supposed to be for Best PICTURE, not most lightweight amusement…………..
By the way, there are lots of movies that won both of those but still didn’t win the Oscar: Saving Private Ryan, Moulin Rouge!, The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain and La La Land. Although, of course, most of them do prevail.
Faint “hope”, I guess
🙂
We live in a world where a majority of voters truly believe Green Book is the best movie of the year. This truly is the darkest timeline.
Especially with those retweets by the author supporting Trump’s lies about 9/11 in Jersey City.
It’s the industry that pretends to think differently from Trump but from time to time endorses films about racism in the 20th/21st century… only if they are mediocre by mediocre WHITE directors.
See, Michael should’ve never gone down to earth and save Eleanor, Chidi, Tahani and Jason. Look at what he wreaked (Brexit, Byron Allen owning the weather channel, the Jaguars in last year’s AFC title game!!!). Messing up the timeline, indeed.
😀 😀 ($1 to The Good Place)
Irrespective of the idiots behind this movie (the writer and director), it is nowhere near the best movie of the year. Maybe for 50+ year old Americans I guess but lol
Bloody hell. The worst choice of the nominees. Literally the worst choice
I really hope Green Book is yet another outlier and it doesn’t actually win Best Picture at the Oscars. Really a surprising win overall but considering the preferential ballot, it makes sense because I don’t think many voters truly hate it, so it may get many #2 or #3 votes.
Greenbook does have a very clear path to BP, clearly, it could win SActor and screenplay, following the tried and true formula like Moonlight, 12 years a slave did….
And if Ali wins for Supporting Actor then he wins it twice for two Best Picture winning films. But let’s just hope it won’t be Green Book crowned as the Best Picture at the Oscar.
Yup, it’s had that path ever since it won the Globe for screenplay, in an upset. Although those weren’t missing key nominations. But there are probably going to be other differences favoring Green Book, in the end. Or not. We’ll see.
Guess this means BP is truly down to Green Book vs Roma. ASIB died here.
yeah, pretty much agree.
Interesting, I don’t believe Green book would win BP at the Oscars. If it does, it will finally break the Metacritic 86+ streak, that’s for sure.
Driving Mr. Daisy
^100!
GREEN BOOK!
WOW
Ugh
Drama Series: The Americans
Doc: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
There have been no surprises all night long from the PGA. And that terrifies me.
Meaning the winner is?
¯_(ツ)_/¯ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb75a2117ecdcb422e6de3271535a681e6a6315e737c5ec611c2e9f40d06afa8.gif
Really happy with Spiderverse as I think many around here are. I really hope it goes all the way to win at Oscars and doesn’t lego itself!
But it was just so unpolished, borderline careless animation vs. the Disney/Pixar/Dreamworks trinity.
The script though
It wasn’t unpolished, it was exactly as intended just an animation style you’re not used to… I absolutely adore the animation because it is something totally different unlike the Disney/ Pixar films which look like every other Disney/ Pixar film (which means yes they look great but are a style we have seen over and over again). Plus the DIsney/ Pixar movies are both good movies from a script/ story perspective but they are no more unique in that way either – especially compared to spiderverse.
Last honorary award of the night being handed out right now: Visionary. We’ll wrap this mother up by 2AM, full stop.
Spider Man: Into the Spiderverse: Animated Film. Wow.
Ralph Breaks the Internet called and demands a recount. Five categories to go (2 movie, 3 TV): Movie, Documentary, Short-Form Program, Sports Program, Children’s Program.