• Contact
    • Founder & Editor Sasha Stone
    • Editor Ryan Adams
  • About Us
  • Advertising on Awards Daily
Sunday, February 17, 2019
No Result
View All Result
Awards Daily
  • Home
  • Awards Calendar 2019
  • AD TV
  • EMMYS
  • Podcasts
  • FYC Gallery
  • Interviews
  • All News
  • Home
  • Awards Calendar 2019
  • AD TV
  • EMMYS
  • Podcasts
  • FYC Gallery
  • Interviews
  • All News
No Result
View All Result
Awards Daily
No Result
View All Result
Home 91st Academy Awards

Netflix and Marvel Crash the Party as Best Picture Ends in a Showdown Between BlacKkKlansman, Roma and The Favourite

by Sasha Stone
January 22, 2019
in 91st Academy Awards, News
1006
Netflix and Marvel Crash the Party as Best Picture Ends in a Showdown Between BlacKkKlansman, Roma and The Favourite
Share
onpost_follow
submit to reddit

With surprise acting nominations for Roma, and such a strong showing for The Favourite, the Best Picture race has left behind a few of the films everyone presumed were the frontrunners. Remember, though, we’re dealing with the preferential ballot and the vagaries of new members. In one sense, all bets are off. The Best Director category appears to be a bit of a hot mess at the moment, in terms of how we generally use it as a reliable indicator as we go about predicting. In general, historically, Best Picture and Best Director are conjoined twins. In recent years, however, they have been separating, with Screenplay attaching itself more and more to the top prize. With Picture and Director separated, one wonders if having a directing nomination will even matter at all. Can A Star is Born or Green Book or even Bohemian Rhapsody still win without one? Yes, I think, it’s possible.

Speaking of stats, however, there is only one movie right now that has landed in all of the right places. That might not matter in the end. It might be Roma’s to win in all respects. For instance, with Cold War’s strong showing in Best Director and Cinematography, might Cold War win in Foreign Language leaving Roma wide open to win Best Picture? Well, if Best Picture were down to five that might be the case. But it doesn’t work that way anymore. Roma has a clear advantage with the preferential ballot, to be sure. It is absolutely a film that people will name number one but also push to the top of their ballot even if it wasn’t their favorite. And honestly, with some of the nominees in decidedly “no way” territory, the Best Picture lineup looks pretty weak overall, making it even more possible that it could make Netflix Oscar history on the big night.

But the real winner this season so far, the stealthy dark horse, is most definitely Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman. It’s the only film that has hit: PGA, DGA and SAG ensemble hat trick, and the only Oscar contender to hit Picture, Directing, Writing, Editing and Acting. Roma doesn’t have SAG ensemble, or any SAG noms, and it doesn’t have editing. The Favourite doesn’t have SAG ensemble. Black Panther doesn’t have DGA or Oscar director. Vice doesn’t have SAG ensemble.

BlacKkKlansman is the stats champ at the moment. But even with the strong cards its holding, that doesn’t mean it’s the frontrunner. After all, Spielberg’s Lincoln was a stats champ in 2012 but Argo took it home and Life of Pi won Best Director. But the lay of the land is still worth noting nonetheless. What may very well make the difference for BlacKkKlansman is the Trump factor. And also love for Spike Lee who not only has seen his first Oscar nomination for Directing but who now stands to become the first African American film director to win. Remember, Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture but their directors did not win. That good will towards Spike could prove to be a strong factor this year, especially since Alfonso Cuaron already won Best Director at both the DGA and the Oscars for Gravity. Then again, his pal Alejandro G. Inarritu made history by winning twice, back to back. Never underestimate the Three Amigos.

Best Picture is still a crap shoot, on account of the preferential ballot. The new members have also thrown a massive wrench in the works, showing they really aren’t going to vote the way Oscar voters have voted in the past. When you do this long enough you learn how to count on a few things because the demographics at the Academy hadn’t changed. I didn’t know if the new members will be enough to really move the needle but they clearly have made it wobble. Because of that, it might not even be useful to look at either history or stats. You have to kind of fly blind.

My hot take for wins this a.m. would be:

Best Picture: Roma vs. BlacKkKlansman vs. The Favourite – with an outside shot still for Green Book
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (with an outside shot for Spike Lee)
Best Actor: Christian Bale, Vice
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
Supporting Actress: Regina King vs. Amy Adams vs. Marina de Tavira
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali vs. Richard E. Grant
Original Screenplay: First Reformed vs. Green Book vs. The Favorite vs. Roma (vs. Vice?)
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman

Most likely, the Best Picture winner is also the screenplay winner, so predict accordingly.

Here is an updated chart.

Share
onpost_follow
submit to reddit
Tags: BlacKkKlansmanRomaThe FavouriteVice
Sasha Stone

Sasha Stone

Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.

Next Post
2019 SCAD aTVfest Announces Lineup, Ellie Kemper to Receive Spotlight Award

2019 SCAD aTVfest Announces Lineup, Ellie Kemper to Receive Spotlight Award

Sign up for Awards Daily's Breaking News

* indicates required
“He Actually Wore a Prosthetic Nose.” Jan Sewell Takes Us Behind The Scenes Of Rami Malek’s Transformation In Bohemian Rhapsody

Bohemian Rhapsody, Isle of Dogs Win at CAS Awards

by Sasha Stone
February 17, 2019
0

The Cinema Audio Society handed out their awards last night, with Bohemian Rhapsody taking the top prize in Sound Mixing...

Interview: Roma’s Production Designer Eugenio Caballero “We didn’t start by looking at images, we started with conversations.”

Interview: Roma’s Production Designer Eugenio Caballero “We didn’t start by looking at images, we started with conversations.”

by Jazz Tangcay
February 16, 2019
0

While watching Alfonso Cuaron's visual masterpiece, we are transported back to his childhood, back to 1970s Mexico. The details in...

Berlin Dispatch – That’s a Wrap

Berlin Dispatch – That’s a Wrap

by Zhuo-Ning Su
February 16, 2019
1

Another Berlinale, another set of surprise winners/bad predictions! I did slightly better than last year by nailing at least one...

Thank You, Bill Maher — When Will the Madness End?

Thank You, Bill Maher — When Will the Madness End?

by Sasha Stone
February 16, 2019
47

Bill Maher draws a parallel between the mass hysteria and purity tests afflicting the Democrats (we're doomed, folks) and the...

Interview: Jake Johnson Steps Into The Spider-Verse

Interview: Jake Johnson Steps Into The Spider-Verse

by Jazz Tangcay
February 16, 2019
0

Jake Johnson wasn't a comic book fan as a young boy, but when he received the script for the Oscar-nominated...

Bruno Ganz: The Angel Hits The Ground

Bruno Ganz: The Angel Hits The Ground

by David Phillips
February 16, 2019
7

Bruno Ganz was of Swiss descent, but he became a titan of German cinema. His film debut came all the...

From Fargo To Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres On Costuming For The Coen Brothers

From Fargo To Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres On Costuming For The Coen Brothers

by David Phillips
February 16, 2019
0

Mary Zophres has been the head Costume Designer on every Coen Brothers film for nearly 25 years. From Fargo to...

Interview: Marvelous Mrs. Maisel’s Matthew Price and  Ron Bochar On The Sounds of The Show

Interview: Marvelous Mrs. Maisel’s Matthew Price and Ron Bochar On The Sounds of The Show

by Jazz Tangcay
February 15, 2019
0

Production Mixer Mathew Price and Re-recording Mixer Ron Bochar Discuss The Sounds Of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel   The sounds...

Academy Reverses Its Decision and Will Air All 24 Categories on Air

Academy Reverses Its Decision and Will Air All 24 Categories on Air

by Sasha Stone
February 15, 2019
149

The Academy has capitulated on all of their own proposals to shorten the Oscar broadcast and boost ratings: the host,...

Predictions Friday — Last Looks Before Tuesday’s Ballot Deadline

Predictions Friday — Last Looks Before Tuesday’s Ballot Deadline

by Sasha Stone
February 15, 2019
195

This grim and fretful Oscar season, which should be much more of a celebration than the fear and panic in...

Join us Facebook

AwardsDaily Crew

  • Founder and Editor Sasha Stone
  • Editor Ryan Adams
  • Jazz Tangcay
  • Sasha Twitter
  • Ryan Twitter
  • Jazz Twitter

ADTV Crew

  • ADTV Home
  • Jazz Tangcay, Editor
  • Clarence Moye
  • Jalal Haddad
  • Megan McLachlan
  • Joey Moser
  • Robin Write

Follow on Twitter

ADTV Twitter

  • Contact
  • About Us
  • Advertising on Awards Daily

© 1999-2018 AwardsDaily.com

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Politics
  • World
  • Business
  • Science
  • National
  • Entertainment
  • Gaming
  • Movie
  • Music
  • Sports
  • Fashion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Tech
  • Health
  • Food

© 1999-2018 AwardsDaily.com