Outstanding Film – Roma
Outstanding Director – Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Outstanding Leading Actress – Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Outstanding Leading Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Outstanding Supporting Actress – Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Outstanding Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Outstanding Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
Outstanding Original Screenplay – The Favourite
Outstanding British Film – The Favourite
Outstanding Film Not in the English Language – Roma
Outstanding Documentary – Free Solo
Outstanding Cinematography – Roma
Outstanding Special Visual Effects – Black Panther
Outstanding Sound – Bohemian Rhapsody
Outstanding Costume Design – The Favourite
Outstanding Production Design – The Favourite
Outstanding Editing – Vice
Outstanding Original Music – A Star is Born
Outstanding Make Up & Hair – The Favourite
Outstanding Animated Film – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
Outstanding British Short Film – 73 Cows
Outstanding British Short Animation – Roughhouse
BAFTA Fellowship – Thelma Schoonmaker
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer – Michael Pearce & Lauren Dark, Beast
Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema – Stephen Woolley and Elizabeth Karlsen
Rising Star – Letitia Wright
[I’m going to post this in several places, as per the usual procedure:]
I once again invite all of the good folks willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and, hopefully, help us all better understand how this year’s mad Best Picture race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot is likely to affect it. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all of those who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all of those who are about to, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will actually happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) The four-year streak of the movie that (according to most accounts) came in second place at the Oscars each year finishing in exactly second place in this simulation ended last year, but only sort of, as Three Billboards was eliminated in third place despite being TIED with the second place finisher in that round. (Call Me By Your Name only went through after I checked to see which of the two would have lost the “final” by a larger margin. I have no idea what the Academy does in these situations – when there is a tie for precisely second place. They probably count first place votes, like they do when there is a tie for first place.) So, in any case, one can say the Oscar Best Picture “loser” has always at least tied for second place (and never come in first) in this simulation over the last five years. Therefore, it will be very interesting, at least for myself, to see what finishes in that fateful position this year…
8th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
So, please rank the eight Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you would like to see each of them win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rather rank them according to your own tastes and wishes, of course)!
I would say that, ideally, a voter should have seen everything this year, or at least made an effort to do so (*cough* Roma – I know some people have had serious trouble getting through that… I didn’t, personally, though I also didn’t love it.), since most of the voters probably will have as well and, more importantly, any of the eight can be argued to have a shot at winning Best Picture. (Even though I, personally, believe only five or six of them, at most, can. And many people by now think it’s down to only two…)
I plan to keep voting open until Saturday or Sunday. I might also decide to close voting and calculate the results on Friday. We’ll see – I’ll give due notice either way, as usual.
It appears I won’t be able to vote myself this year, due to not having seen The Favourite (which is too likely to rank high for me). However, here’s my mother’s ballot (I asked her to rank these after she saw the last one, shortly after the nominations announcement, because I knew she might forget how she felt about at least some of them afterwards – prescription medication, long story -, so I felt that would probably be more relevant than having her rank them now):
1. Green Book
2. A Star is Born
3. Vice
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. The Favourite
8. Roma
For the record, my own ranking would be something like: 1. A Star is Born 2. Vice 3. Green Book 4. BlacKkKlansman 5. Roma 6. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Black Panther.
The roll of honor:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
AND THE OSCARS GO TO: BEST ACTOR, RAMI MALEK; BEST ACTRESS, GLENN CLOSE AND BEST PICTURE , BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY; AND FOR BEST SUPPORTING, SAM ELLIOTT AND BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, REGINA KING !
I loved the First Man-themed BAFTA opening from Cirque du Soleil — or Cirque de la Lune? The rest of the show was standard. I miss Stephen Fry, but Joanna Lumley is much better than no host at all. Onwards to the Oscars.
Lumley got dreadful reviews in the British press (1 stars and stuff.) And it’s somewhat fair, literally nobody laughed at most of her jokes. Though I mostly blame the writers. Let’s hope next year will be better.
Roma wins 4, including Best Film. Good haul. Just thinking Boyhood, Revenant, LLL, Three Billboards, etc. Just don’t know. Green Book lurking big time.
7 for The Favourite. Ecstatic for every win it received, including Hair & Make-up – which it should be winning at the Oscars and isn’t nominated. Love Olivia Colman and her speech. Wonder what this means for Weisz.
Green Book gets Ali. I suppose it’s him all the way. Happy for him.
Spike gets a BAFTA and we shall see if Oscar follows suit.
Very happy that Bradley Cooper got a Grammy and a BAFTA in one night.
Enjoyed the show. I know it is edited down for BBCAmerica. But they somehow got everything to fit in 2.5 hours and with many commercial breaks.
BAFTA did not help me clear up 6 categories AT ALL (lol)
-S. Actress – Weisz vs. King vs. Adams vs. de Tavira (my shock upset as of now)
-Editing – Vice, maybe? Who knows???
-Sound Editing – no clue – just going out on a limb with AQP.
-Sound Mixing – I guess Bohemian Rhapsody? Could be First Man/ASIB.
-FX – Black Panther winning here doesn’t shw me which wins of Infinity War or First Man on Oscar night. 50/50, that one!
-Score – I would say Beale Street? But I’m actually gonna go for Black Panther because there’s a chance to reward the film, just won a Grammy, it’s a Best Pipc nominee, etc. But again … no clue. Could be Isle of Dogs. Could be MPR (Shaiman has never won before).
Thanks a lot BAFTA, ya cleared up nothin! 🙂
I’m pretty sure BR takes Sound Mixing. It won for Best Sound at BAFTA and also at the Association of Motion Picture Sound (AMPS). We still have to see the results from Cinema Audio Society Awards and Motion Picture Sound Editors Awards on 16th and 17th. But I’m sure it’s winning at least one of them. I actually think it has a shot at Sound Editing too. Voters usually go for the movie that has a BP nomination so I don’t see AQP winning. I’m not predicting First Man for anything anymore after the Bafta fiasco.
Congrats to Olivia !! She is so lovely but this year my heart belongs to legend Glenn Close.
LOVED Colman winning here. Loved her in The Favourite, and elsewhere. Still pulling for Glenn on Oscar night.
One thing I can say for certain is that VICE is not going home empty handed. It will win editing or make up or both.
I think now i know how the industry votes for lead actor. If there is a slightest chance for them to not vote for a leading man then they will go for it. Look at the their track record.
Rami Malek has everything going for him. He is very unlikely leading man. A man who looks like Rami Malek is never going to be a lead in a major Hollywood motion picture unless it is for Freddie mercury.
Even with this win Rami Malek is suddenly not going to be a leading man. That’s exactly the reason why they love him. They love this unlikely leading man playing an unlikely outsider. He can have razzies for the rest of his life and still the voters will have no buyers remorse. They feel good that they helped an up and coming minority to win oscar.
They love freddie but something tell me that even if this movie was a moderate hit and the lead character was an unknown rock star and not freddie I think the industry voters want to support an actor who looks like rami malek. What are the odds an actor who looks like him to land a role like this.
I honestly believe that the course is set for him to win since last november.
Well they can always do a Marty Feldman or Peter Lorre biopic. He would most likely return to tv.
Eyyy it’s Braylon again! Welcome back!
YOU BETCHA ! RONI MALEK IS THE WINNER ! CHECK OUT “I ROBOT” !
but he will never be a movie star
I can’t believe we have two more weeks of this bullshit. I’m all for moving the Oscars up next year. The only reasonable thing this people have done in years.
Good news, it will be moved up next year b/c of the Winter Olympics.
Make it permanent! The weekend after The Globes.
They either need to start the other pre-cursors a couple weeks later… You know AFTER THE YEAR END! I’m looking at you GG’s… And/or bring the Oscars up to be just 1 week after BAFTA.
Any Adams is not winning an Oscar. You people are delusional. You should come to my psychics circle in Iowa. We have her ranked dead last along with Glenn Close. Both winning career awards for sleepwalking roles is the biggest laugh at our bridge games. According to the psychics of the Midwest, the winners will be
Best Picture: The Favourite
Best Director: Spike Lee
Best Actor: Rami Malek
Best Actress: Olivia Coleman
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz
Best Adapted Screenplay: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Cinematography: Cold War
Best Production Design: The Favourite
Best Costume Design: The Favourite
Best Makeup: Border
Best Sound: A Star is Born
Best Song: “Shallow”, A Star is Born
Best Sound Editing: Black Panther
Best Visual Effects: First Man
Best Film Editing: BlacKKKlansman
Best Foreign Film: Cold War
Best Animated Featude: Incredibles 2
Best Original Score: Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
<3
so honored to see you on this thread, all-knowing vessel of supernatural powers. surprised you’re not a billionaire yet 🙂
Sounds legit!
She’s definitely legit!!!
“Frances looked like a man the entire time. She should be up for best actor…Get Out wins in a landslide (SHE WAS TALKING ABOUT BEST PICTURE HERE). …And Margot Robbie is winning. I, Tonya is swooping in to go 3/3 including editing. Those ice skating scenes made me feel like I was back at the 1994 olympics. Did you know I was there the night Kerrigan won the silver? I was backstage doing my readings. She was a very rude young lady.” – 11 months ago (endoftheworldpod.com)
“Spotlight will win nothing. It was deemed by the Midwest Psychics Society as the most boring thing on screen since the 1994 Presidential Debates, twenty one years ago.” – January 21, 2016 (thefilmexperience.net)
“Lot’s of crying will happen here next Sunday when Matt Damon’s movie wins all 7 awards (plus Ridley will prevail too) – as my forecasts still predict.” – February 20, 2016 (awardsdaily.com)
“I have decided to come forth and let you all know who is going to win Sunday. Get ready for some major upsets, my own brain was going nuts when I discovered the truth. READ NO FURTHER IF YOU DON’T WANT TO SEE WHO THE WINNERS WILL BE… Best Picture – Lincoln; Best Director – Steven Spielberg, Lincoln; Best Actress – Emmanuelle Riva” – February 21, 2013 (donedealprofessional.com)
Lol! I wanted to add “for once” to my comment, because I do think her predictions this year are much more reasonable than the ones from previous years, but I do miss her outlandish stories and remarks, let’s hope there will be more coming this season as we get closer to the big night!
She made entirely different “predictions” a week ago. Credibility- zero
Because she is not doing it seriously. Duh.
I’m pretty sure they write for humor effects, not to be predictive.
That’s quite an awful track record, especially for a “trained psychic”.
Yeah they have a few right but very few. Spider Man will definitely win the Oscar Best Animated Feature.
VICE is not going home empty handed. That I can say for certain. It is too important of a movie to go home empty handed. It will win either editing or make up
Close and Colman are too close to call for best actress.
I’ve seen all the 8 films
Here’s how I ranked them
1. Bohemian rhapsody
2. Green book
3. The favourite
4. Black panther
5. Vice
6. Blackkklansman
7. A star is born
8. Roma
I give them all 4 stars
I
YOU GOT IT RIGHT. THE LAST MOVIE I SAW WAS BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY! BEST MONEY I SPENT ALL YEAR ! I KNEW OF QUEEN, BUT NOW I KNOW ALL ABOUT QUEEN!