Next Tuesday the 19th, Oscar voters will finally seal the lid on the madness that was Oscar season 2018–2019. It will be all over but the shouting — a relief to an exhausting, competitive race that got way too nasty. We know, from a stats perspective, which films can win Best Picture. Now, I’m going to make the case of why each film should win, and what a win for that film will say about the Academy, the industry, and those of us who spend way too much of our time and attention on this every year. But I’m only going to write up five of them because I really believe only five have a shot at winning the top prize.
Green Book — In a year of unprecedented strife in the Oscar race, at a time when our country has become cripplingly divided, when there is nothing to draw from the well except anger, vitriol, frustration, and animosity, there is a movie that reminds audiences of what bridging the gap of ignorance can do for the human heart. We seem to have abandoned our ability to forgive one another our trespasses. Green Book is about forgiveness of ignorance in a country that has fostered it for far too long. Maybe one divide mended doesn’t amount to a hill of beans, but as human beings we still rely on our individual stories to help shape our worldview. That so many have found in Green Book a generosity of spirit and capacity to love makes it a film that might not be important in any other year, but makes it a film that absolutely matters in 2019. It matters because, sooner or later, we’re going to have to find a way to get along and coexist, or else kill each other trying. That it became a target of intense scrutiny — that no film was attacked more and by so many different factions from so many angles, even when it was telling a message of love and friendship — is a sign of the times, without a doubt. To vote for Green Book is to say — you know what? I don’t want to live in that kind of world anymore. I choose optimism and hope. I reach my hand out to those I don’t understand or those I’ve been taught to hate and fear and I find a different way of living in a divided country.
Roma — A win for Roma is two things at once. To look at Roma’s value, one has to abandon the things most people first think about when they think about Roma: that’s it’s a Netflix movie, or it’s a foreign language film. When you think about it that way, it easier to resist its magnificence. When you look at what the movie actually is about, what Alfonso Cuaron did with it, what he was trying to tell us about his own life growing up in Mexico and the people who shaped it — people who are called rapists and murderers by the President of the United States — you’ll find that Roma is a film about the magic and power of film. It’s about cinema itself. It is a breathtaking display of what a camera can do, what black and white film can still do, what it can bring to life, what it can show you. When you think about Cuaron’s work, you see it in color, right? Vivid color in Gravity or Y Tu Mama Tambien or A Little Princess. Can you think of those movies without seeing them in color? Now you see Roma, which contains within it glimpses of Cuaron’s cinematic influences robbed of color. For a country like Mexico, a country that has more vibrancy in its walls and streets than just about any other place on Earth, to see it in black and white takes us down a much different path that we’re expecting. What are we seeing when we look at Mexico robbed of color, when we see Cuaron’s influences in only black, white, and shades of grey? We are seeing a mirror reflected back at us, seeing what our president is telling us about a people we’re supposed to see as not wholly human. Roma does this with subtlety, but it nonetheless makes its point powerfully. A vote for Roma is a vote for cinema, come what may. Yes, it’s also a vote for Netflix, which means it is a vote for the disruptive inevitability of what’s coming next. Fight it all you want, but you can’t stop it.
BlacKkKlansman — American film has mostly ignored the monumental impact of Spike Lee. He towers over both black cinema and white cinema the same way the biggest directors do — it’s just that he has never compromised his voice, and that voice is distinctly Spike’s voice. It’s true with all of his films and it’s true with BlacKkKlansman, a film about ongoing systemic racism in America and the rise of white supremacy at the hands of our president. The story is breezily told — funny at times, horrific at other times — and occasionally forgoes story entirely to deliver powerful speeches you never really forget. Lee did this too with Do the Right Thing: a film so wildly alive no one in Hollywood had seen anything like it. A vote for this film is a vote for Lee himself, a way to applaud and reward not just one of the best films of the year, but a way to honor the new wave of black filmmakers that landed in this year’s Oscar race. Picking BlacKkKlansman is a way of saying we are mad as hell and we’re not going to take it anymore. And remember, no black director has ever won Best Director. In 90 years of Oscar history.
Black Panther — Although there are only two black directors in this year’s Best Picture race, they are just two of the many black auteurs who released films this year, like Barry Jenkins made If Beale Street Could Talk, Steve McQueen made Widows, and Boots Riley made Sorry to Bother You. What a year. It would be a shame to see none of them win any of the top prizes. For a film that earned $700 million, for a film that elevated the Marvel/superhero genre, for a film that fearlessly depicted a progressive Afrofuturist world — one that has no doubt inspired millions of young kids to grow up finding Wakanda in the everyday — awarding Black Panther Best Picture is a no-brainer. Black Panther is likely going to win a lot of Oscars, but if it wins Best Picture as well, it means that the Oscars are ready at last to embrace what the public likes, to bring the Oscars back to the people where it first started, to snatch it out of the hands of the rarified few. It’s also just a good movie — and it’s always great when good movies win.
A Star Is Born — Like Black Panther, Bradley Cooper’s update of an American fairy tale that swerves into dark fable is one of the cultural zeitgeist movies that lots of people paid to see. It has launched Lady Gaga the actress and Bradley Cooper the director. He was working within the confines of a fated tale, so no matter what else happened, we knew how things were going to shake down by the end. Cooper’s film brought so many people out to the movies who never went before and quickly became one of the most talked about films of the year. There is no denying the power of that first scene where Lady Gaga takes the stage. So many moviegoers found in A Star Is Born the movie of the year, a defining moment for American film. A vote for A Star Is Born is a vote out of pure love. Those who love it will find it hard to vote for anything else.
The other three — Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, and Vice — all have things about them that would make them great Best Picture winners, but ultimately each of them is showcase for its singular actors. A vote for them is really a vote for the power of great acting, and how great performances can sometimes make a great movie.
Whichever film wins this year (and honestly, no one knows what will), it will say a lot about the world and the film community the winner reflects.
Off topic, 2019’s race… we got TWO Bohemian Rhapsody in the race…
Rocket Man, by Dexter Fletcher, with Taron Egerton as Elton John and Jamie Bell as Bernie Taupin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9CZq-O4vuA
Yesterday, by Danny Boyle, written by Richard Curtis, with newcomer Himesh Patel, Lily James and Kate McKinnon… intriguing premise, loved the trailer, it has a potential to be the crowdpleaser of the year (even more so, than Slumdog Millionaire)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3VeHyedL1U
I got the feeling, both are going to be HUGE Globes contenders and at least one of them may transfer to Oscar (unless they result in surprising bombs).
Great write-up about Green Book!
On the other hand, come on, Black Panther and A Star is Born are not more likely to win Best Picture than The Favourite – not even close!…
Off topic: Just saw “The LEGO Movie, The second Part”… loved it, even thought it doesn’t reach the masterpiece level as the first one. A pity is bombing, because I’d love to see it nominated for Animated Feature and Song (“Catchy song”) next year.
On the 8 films, politically incorrect view on each one winning…
– Green Book: we’re back to 1989
– Roma: the power of the wall
– Blackkklansman: welcome to the XXIst Century, Hollywood
– A Star is Born: glam is back
– Bohemian Rhapsody: let me introduce you, to the Best Achievement in Popular Film
– Black Panther: please, watch our broadcast
– The Favourite: Kubrick couldn’t, this greek weirdo could.
– Vice: mommy, mommy, I made a political satire… of course darling, we’re so proud of you, look, we’re going to place it, here, in the fridge, so everyone can admire it.
Strange. I remember really liking the first one (haven’t seen it since premiere though), but I found this one quite bad. I never felt I was engaged.
this is going to be another “Babe: Pig in the City” for most. Most people is not going to “get” it, but it is almost as brilliant as the first one constructing more than repeating. The first one is one of my top 100 films of all time (yes, and I can defend it, on artistic merits, it’s completely visionary) and this one while a minor step down… it’s just that, a really little step down, mostly because surprise effect is lost.
catch song is stuck in my head. First thing I thought was consider it a 2020 contender 😉
Surprised Oscars haven’t budged yet despite all the vocal criticism. I suspect they think they’ll look weak if they go back on themselves again. Bailey has totally failed in every regard.
I read that the reason they can’t so easily back down this time is that, unlike other decisions that have been walked back, the decision to present categories during commercial breaks was made by a vote by the board of governors — so it can’t be reversed without another vote by the board of governors. The question is, will they have time to reconvene the whole board again before next Sunday?
I think too many important folks have voiced their opposition for them not l to reconvene.
The Favourite is about the ways base emotion plays into politics and how leaders can have the truth distorted by ambitious, conniving confidantes. Sound familiar? Just exchange the bunny rabbits with Tweets.
Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book are nostalgia driven films. Both actually say nothing notable about our present times except the need to escape them into candy-coated vintage fantasies. “Can you believe how racist the South used to be?” “Can you believe Freddie Mercury was gay?” Unlike A Star Is Born — which uses music to address pain and mental health — both films peddle popular songs and classic hits to keep their audiences in a warm glow of nostalgia.
(Roma is also a nostalgia film but the central issue it attempts to address — the forgotten indigenous women in the director’s childhood — is handled with a deep, unwavering focus. He brings their stories into his memories as opposed to just decorating his film’s backdrop with their plight.)
A win for Vice will say, “We are a sadomasochistic society who, in just a decade, will turn our villains into caricatures for entertainment.”
Really enjoyed reading these takes.
“Black Panther is likely going to win a lot of Oscars, but if it wins Best Picture as well, it means that the Oscars are ready at last to embrace what the public likes, to bring the Oscars back to the people where it first started”
That exactly right Sasha I credit u greatly influencing my views though long shared same view as you when Oscars first founded they engaged driven by public choice not just industry for industry’s sake.
Toq be honest as well point is ” not stopping Netflix” but academy have power if they be bothered have strong leadership stand by their guiding principles their founding principles big screen films on. Big screen, win only strong leadership taking stand is realistic way academy have power and vote to resist intrusion of Netflix in academy conversation …you can should stop ROMa any Netflix film from winning .
Cos if it does it suggesting the academy have all but started to consider abandoning the value to them and to us of still overwhelming majority big screen movies in a calendar year. And lot of us should refuse to believe or accept academy is already in only 90 yrs of it life running out of cares or motivation for finding of vast array of releases each year that they already looking for alternative .
No u can’t stop Netflix but academy can get their priorities right stop their own rot in eyes those know respect o
Their Oscar history .
Hence why u strongly back something Sasha mentioned no. Of times regarding black panther of big if sadly it wins ” movies more than ever” Roma is not nor should be adapted as interpretation of big screen movie it not it not it target audience …but black panther sure is bout damn way overdue film .like black panther wins genres that hasn’t.
There are plenty film genre types not been recognised much or at all in 90 yrs academy history ….
There still soo much potential embrace certain film genres before even considering let alone embracing Netflix. As viable credible best picture alternative . frankly it sending reckless irresponsible decision to pple like us to skip fact certain genre type big screen films have not won it hardly won and academy leapfrog to embrace Netflix they have power academy does vote for common sense and preserve they biggest fundamental in their Oscar history academy founded on idea of films on big screen – not small screen.
There is simy no compelling case for change at all
I am thinking Black Panther is just going to get Costume and / or Production Design… but may lose both of them, quite easily, to The Favourite. Black Panther might really well, end emptyhanded at Oscar night.
Yea well you know as well as I do if black panther does not win enough trch awards as at vrty least it deserves that only mean Oscars in the public eye be dismissed as quickly as single piece toilet paper gets flushed down the toilet then out to sewerage through the drain – and how often do we think of sewerage after we do what we do in bathroom ? Answer it forgotten as soon as it ejected …OK I could a used more civil analogy but I think it blunt upfront way to highlight extent academy offside with increasing majority of TV watchers in last several years on balance ey?
Thankfully in a week this race will be just a memory.
Horrible year, with the average quality of movie releases being the lowest ever.
Literally no original ( non superhero) – high budget movie making an impact on box office or granting itself a place amongst high rated classics.
Some middle – budget movies made waves ( bohemian rapsody , a star is born – yet another remake-) at the b.o., but their quality remains dubious.
For the low budget – artsy fair, the partial lack of Wes Anderson ( in a live action movie) and the complete absence of many other notable auteurs like Sofia Coppola, Tarantino etc. really hurt the year’s offer, overall.
Roma would be a decent winner, but just like The shape of water, a minor movie that has little impact on moviegoers, and will likely end up in the ” nice but too far away from the common folk taste” or in the “basically liked by pretentious cinephiles only” categories like “birdman”.
The favourite and Blaccklansmen are two nice movies, more general-public friendly, but certainly no masterpieces by any margin.
Frankly, I find it tiring how every year journalists and some folks online claim every year as “amazing” for movies, when it’s actually terrible.
Like, I read a dozen of articles depicting 2018 as the biggest year ever at the box office, while not stating the true fact that it was one of the worst year ever recorded in terms of actual tickets sold, with aattendence incredibly low!
Likewise, why are we trying to say this has been a good year for quality? It was not, let’s deal with it and move on.
Of the nominated films this year, The Favourite is what I would call “best”. For me, I found it entertaining, witty, accessible, superbly performed, incredibly adorned, emotional even (in the end), and says a lot about women in power both then and now. It’s one of the rare films this year that made me sit forward in my seat with what was occurring and what would happen next — I find those are a rare find each year.
I also love Black Panther as supreme entertainment that gave us much more than your typical superhero movie. For me, it’s absolutely on of the Films of the Year. How can it not be? Amazing box office, amazing reviews, stunning visuals, and great performances from a huge ensemble cast full mostly of great black actors given the chance to shine.
I also love Green Book (both as entertainment and what it has to say about race relations and about humanity). For me, it was the “movie movie” of the year, the kind that was loved and appreciated more back 20-30 yrs. ago, and I do not mean that as a slam, but as a great compliment.
I enjoyed most of A Star is Born (WONDERFUL music, solid acting showcase, nice cinematography, Bradley Cooper tinkers with the tried and true story pretty well).
Really dug Blackkklansman (very good film, Spike Lee is back, loved the acting, says something about race relations then and now, beautifully).
I admired Roma as a very personal story by a masterful director. It’s beautiful and contains many memorable segments; didn’t quite move me the way I think it intended.
I enjoyed Bohemian Rhapsody as entertainment. Queen’s music is awesome. Rami Malek impressed me a lot. But when I saw it in October, I nevvver thought it was in the realm of Best Picture quality. I understand its box office, but don’t understand how it stacks up in the year’s “best” films.
I liked Vice for the performances and a few segments that either riled me up or made me chuckle. But overall, I just found it messy in execution and messy in what it was trying to say.
Ignoring the fact the ASIB & Black Panther both of which have no chance of winning BP get their own paragraph when the nomination co-leader and winner of 7 BAFTAS gets a shared line in the “others” paragraph, I think the choice is Roma, new type of winner, in the vein of Birdman & Shape of Water and Green Book, old type of winner in the vein of Driving Miss Daisy.
You clearly didn’t read the Anonymous voter articles, majority of them are voting for Black Panther.
Haha they are more often wrong than right, printed for their shock value
The Favourite is much more than ¨an acting showcase¨. It´s a brilliant film about the complexity of humans and what are we capable of when we want to survive, to achieve success, or to find incondicional love and to stop feeling alone, it is a superb movie that constantly surprises with his artistic decisions, it is PURE CINEMA. Roma is also masterpiece, but you have not quite understood it, it is not about Trump at all. It is about corruption, subtle racism, feminism and white privilege. Both of them are incredible movies, 2018 has been a great year for cinema and the people that say otherwise do not watch movies at all. For example, I almost cannot find people that have seen First Reformed which is a magnificent movie with an incredible screenplay.
I assume you mean FIRST REFORMED… I can hardly leave the house to catch a BP nominee and even I’ve seen FIRST REFORMED (amazon prime)… People just don’t seek out good movies.
Yeah, exactly what I meant, people do not care. No one has seen First Reformed, Leave no trace or Eight Grade, yet they are complaining about the lack of good cinema… Hypocrisy too much!!!!
You’re obviously new to this website. We’re essentially a First Reformed fan page.
correction: First Reformed/Man fanpage
A lot of people who happen to have Amazon Prime videos are people who joined Amazon Prime membership to get 2-day free shipping offers. Most of these people wouldn’t seek out to watch First Reformed on there.
Wow, what a weak write up for The Favourite, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Vice. I mean I get if your heart wasn’t into it, but it seems a bit unfair to give such paragraphs to the other films.
Couldn’t agree more and to put ASIB in the mix above The Favourite it just all out outrageous considering the nominations! In my opinion, BR has a bigger chance than ASIB and it feels it more highly regarded too. It should be a two horse race – Roma and The Green Book but I can’t discount The Favourite and BR …. even above Black Panther and BKKK!
I don’t think an Academy Awards BP will say anything about us.
AMPAS will vote for a film that would represent them, and them only, maybe, just maybe, the industry, but definitely not us.
I agree. The Oscars are not a reflection of the moviegoing public. Box office figures are.
I really hope Netflix discloses viewership numbers down the line. Because down the line it will be just as important as box office when it comes to explaining what people want.
Well… I don’t think b.o. figures represent us either (or at least me). The general public goes to movie theaters for entertainment, more often than to appreciate movies as an art form.
As you will see with the results of Dr. Rob’s upcoming reveal of this forum’s Oscar choices, Black Panther will not win BP, even if it’s the most popular movie of the bunch. Not even A Star is Born will win in this forum.
My point was that when AMPAS votes, they only think of themselves, not what it would represent the general audience’s perception.
The general public goes for entertainment, and I’m using that as a basis because that’s why the majority goes to the movies: to be entertained. There are more casual moviegoers than cinephiles, and for them, a movie like Aquaman or Harry Potter is the best movie in the world. And that’s completely ok. I think it would also be unfair to consider critical consensus of a film to be an indicator of what represents “us”.
See, I have a rather different take on what the average person would call the best film in the world. I have read several people’s thoughts (who normally do not care about film too much, especially not the Oscars) that while they have seen and enjoyed Black Panther, they do not see it as one of the best films of the year. And these people would probably never come near Roma. But several people have a notion that the films they watch and like are NOT the pinnacle of cinema, and find it weird that the Oscars are recognizing such, arguably good but definitely not exceptional, films as some of the best of the year. I’m not sure the “popular film” push is a good way to make the Oscars more relevant.
Exactly!!! The Oscars are pandering to people who, at the end of the day, really don’t give a rat’s ass about the Oscars. Like my parents. My wife. All my siblings. My best friend. My boss. None of them care. They all love movies, but not the Oscars. And for the Oscars to bend over for them (at the expense of the cinematographers etc.) is stupid.
Sasha I loved what you said about Green Book and why I want it to win . Also the attacks are becoming increasingly hysterical. Yesterday there were two more . In the New York Times an article entitled How Green Book Gives Short Shrift To A Gay Life where the writer brings up the recent attack on the star of Empire and another one Ahead Of Oscars NAACP President Criticised Green Book For Negative Stereotype . This is the same group that attacked The Color Purple for negative stereotypes of black males and then attacked The Academy for not giving the film any Oscars . Also they attacked White Dog , Sam Fuller’s great antiracist film for being racist . If I didn’t know better i would think that Green Book was a combination of Birth Of A Nation and Triumph Of The Will and should be banned . Netflix has to be loving these attacks or is behind them.
2018 will go down as another 2011; a terrible year for movies with only flashes of greatness.
Green Book – fans will say ‘didn’t its author promote debunked Trump conspiracy theories about Muslims cheering the towers falling in Jersey City and had to be twitter-shamed into apologizing’? If they’re not saying “Driving Mr. Daisy”. 😀
Roma — The last straw in a decade of Oscars honoring movies whose most appealing characteristic seems to be that the least number of people saw them (Hurt Locker, The Artist, 12YAS, Moonlight, Spotlight; yes, even Shape of Water; 6 of the last 8 BP winners under $65m domestically). Poisonous for TV ratings. Moviegoers recognizing that the rare blockbuster that does make it into BP is just for show, since it wasn’t nommed for director, too. There has been no balance between art and commerce that is also pretty goddamn good. It’s been the former.
But $3 million for a BP winner is simply unacceptable in mainstream moviegoers eyes. And for those who are scared shitless of the Netflix effect in the future, should it win, for the good of moviemaking, it must lose. But it won’t. BAFTA was the last doorstop, the last line of defense. And they bent/submitted to Roma. The real damage, of course, will be 2020, and people will wonder why watch an awards show if they’re gonna give Oscars to movies and people I’ve never seen? Unless Frozen II, Avengers: Endgame and Star Wars 9 clobber it outta the park, quality wise and are generously nominated.
BlacKkKlansman — Fans: “Way to go, a Spike Lee joint actually broke through.”
Black Panther – Us: “Really? A movie that’s only the second megahit in the last 15 years to WIN BEST PICTURE?????” Maybe there’s hope for the Oscars yet as they try to reestablish the balance between popular/critic favorites and the Indie Spirits faction (which the Oscars have turned into). 9/10 Oscar winners duplicated the Spirits choices (year before last?)
A Star Is Born – Us: “At least this musical had people we loved, and didn’t have a director who’s the Kevin Spacey of his guild for all the contemptible, ugly wrong reasons.”
Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, and Vice: Us: “Did we see any of these?”
It really is quite stupid to talk of BO for Roma when limited release & most views on Netflix. Quite stupid
It is the height of irony that people like you constantly argue that an award for excellence in movies should primarily be based on the television ratings of the ceremony.
FeelingBlue2018, your comment is pathetic, a person like you should not comment anything about the quality of cinema. Art is not for everybody, Roma is a masterpiece that was wildly seen on Netflix – 73 000 votes on IMDB prove it, but even if it was not, it does not matter, what matter is quality. Oscars are for the people who love art cinema, the rest have The People Choice awards.
Also, Bohemian Rhapsody made 850 millions at the Box Office…
I agree with your first sentence.
The Favourite is the only Best Picture nominee I give a crap about this year.
Roma is welcome as damage mitigation.
Could tolerate ASIB or BlackKkKlansman, given the weak field.
The other 4 coming off the heels of The Shape of Water is my personal nadir for back-to-back winners (in nearly a century), so god forbid.
Great year for movies really. I can see The Favourite, Roma, First Man and Cold War being among this decade’s best list. It’s on mine now. But giving time for these films to prove their brilliance.
Great piece. Although The Favorite winning could say more about the Academy than it just being celebrated for its actors.
I really enjoyed reading this piece, Sasha. It is written by somebody who clearly is still impassioned and moved by cinema not just the politics of the awards race. My only quibble is the sentiment in the Black Panther paragraph which opines that the Oscars were originally for the people or from the people. My take on the Academy Awards going right back is that they have always been for them (the industry) and their exclusive players and membership. They’ve flirted with popularity but at the end of each day they vote as a privileged group of moguls and celebrities as well as veteran filmmakers and artists. But not representative at all of the rest of us.
[The usual re-post – ignore if already voted! I’ve decided it makes sense to leave voting open until at least Sunday…]
I once again invite all of the good folks willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and, hopefully, help us all better understand how this year’s mad Best Picture race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot is likely to affect it. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all of those who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all of those who are about to, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will actually happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) The four-year streak of the movie that (according to most accounts) came in second place at the Oscars each year finishing in exactly second place in this simulation ended last year, but only sort of, as Three Billboards was eliminated in third place despite being TIED with the second place finisher in that round. (Call Me By Your Name only went through after I checked to see which of the two would have lost the “final” by a larger margin. I have no idea what the Academy does in these situations – when there is a tie for precisely second place. They probably count first place votes, like they do when there is a tie for first place.) So, in any case, one can say the Oscar Best Picture “loser” has always at least tied for second place (and never come in first) in this simulation over the last five years. Therefore, it will be very interesting, at least for myself, to see what finishes in that fateful position this year…
8th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
So, please rank the eight Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you would like to see each of them win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rather rank them according to your own tastes and wishes, of course)!
I would say that, ideally, a voter should have seen everything this year, or at least made an effort to do so (*cough* Roma – I know some people have had serious trouble getting through that… I didn’t, personally, though I also didn’t love it.), since most of the voters probably will have as well and, more importantly, any of the eight can be argued to have a shot at winning Best Picture. (Even though I, personally, believe only five or six of them, at most, can. And many people by now think it’s down to only two…)
I plan to keep voting open until Saturday or Sunday. I might also decide to close voting and calculate the results on Friday. We’ll see – I’ll give due notice either way, as usual.
It appears I won’t be able to vote myself this year, due to not having seen The Favourite (which is too likely to rank high for me). However, here’s my mother’s ballot (I asked her to rank these after she saw the last one, shortly after the nominations announcement, because I knew she might forget how she felt about at least some of them afterwards – prescription medication, long story -, so I felt that would probably be more relevant than having her rank them now):
1. Green Book
2. A Star is Born
3. Vice
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. The Favourite
8. Roma
For the record, my own ranking would be something like: 1. A Star is Born 2. Vice 3. Green Book 4. BlacKkKlansman 5. Roma 6. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Black Panther.
The roll of honor:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Roma
5. Blackkklansman
6. Black Panther
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. Vice
4. Green Book
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. A Star Is Born
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
1. Green Book
2. The Favourite
3. Vice
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Roma
6. A Star is Born
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Black Panther
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Black Panther
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. A Star Is Born
6. Vice
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Green Book
And for me, these break into pairs leaving us with 2 extraordinary movies, 2 great movies, 2 mediocre ones, and 2 that are insults to the Oscars.
1. Vice
2. Bohemian Rhapsody
3. The Favourite
4. Black Panther
5. A Star Is Born
6. Green Book
7. BlackKkKlansman
8. Roma
My actual 1st and 2nd and 3rd place favorite movies are 1. The Hate U Give 2. Boy Erased 3. Eighth Grade. I liked all the movies nominated but really had no passion for any of them as i did for my 3 favorite films of the year.
Wow, a fellow Vice lover! 🙂 Never thought I’d live to see the day…
My favorite film a few years ago was The Big Short. I love the film makers style of taking potentially complex issues and hitting us with simplistic explanations in a fun and frenzied edit fashion (think Margot Robbie’s bathtub scene and Selena Gomez blackjack scene from the Big Short). He did the same thing in Vice several times with the restaurant scene. Also, like my 2nd viewing of The Big Short, I found a second viewing of Vice even more rewarding as I picked up on so many things I missed the first time due to the fast paced crazy editing of the film.
🙂 Cool! The Big Short was very interesting and a very good movie, but wasn’t one of my favorites of the year. I liked Vice more than I liked that one. (Rewatch is pending for me, too.)
1) The Favourite
2) Vice
3) Green Book
4) BlacKKKlansman
5) A Star Is Born
6) Black Panther
7) Bohemian Rhapsody
8) Roma
1) The Favourite
2) Green Book
3) BlacKKKlansman
4) A Star Is Born
5) Vice
6) Bohemian Rhapsody
7) Black Panther
8) Roma
(Actual top 8: The Favourite, Green Book, Hereditary, Can You Ever Forgive Me, BlacKKKlansman, Leave No Trace, Spider-Man, Buster Scruggs)
BREAKING: Academy statement released in just the last 20 minutes:
“As the Academy’s officers, we’d like to assure you that no award category at the 91st Oscars ceremony will be presented in a manner that depicts the achievements of its nominees and winners as less than any others. Unfortunately, as the result of inaccurate reporting and social media posts, there has been a chain of misinformation that has understandably upset many Academy members. We’d like to restate and explain the plans for presenting the awards, as endorsed by the Academy’s Board of Governors.
All 24 Award categories are presented on stage in the Dolby Theatre, and included in the broadcast.
Four categories – Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Live Action Short – were volunteered by their branches to have their nominees and winners announced by presenters, and included later in the broadcast. Time spent walking to the stage and off, will be edited out.
The four winning speeches will be included in the broadcast.
In future years, four to six different categories may be selected for rotation, in collaboration with the show producers. This year’s categories will be exempted in 2020.
This change in the show was discussed and agreed to by the Board of Governors in August, with the full support of the branch executive committees. Such decisions are fully deliberated.
The show producers have given great consideration to both Oscar tradition and our broad global audience. We sincerely believe you will be pleased with the show, and look forward to celebrating a great year in movies with all Academy members and with the rest of the world.”
Signed,
John Bailey, AMPAS President
Lois Burwell, Sid Ganis and Larry Karaszewski, Nancy Utley, AMPAS Vice Presidents
Jim Gianopulos, Treasurer
David Rubin, Secretary”
https://variety.com/2019/film/awards/film-academy-reacts-to-category-presentations-controversy-there-has-been-a-chain-of-misinformation-1203139500/
Such a ridiculous response. No one is “misinformed” about this and nothing in this letter contradicts any of the reporting that’s been done on this. This is a Trumpian “fake news” PR move that’s characteristic of the out of touch cluelessness that has surrounded all the of Academy’s decisions this year. John Bailey needs to go.
What should give you, me and all of us chills is this sentence:
“In future years, 4 to 6 different categories may be selected for rotation, in collaboration with the show producers.”
What are you gonna tape-delay next year?
What are you gonna tape-delay next year?
Why just like this year – the categories without Disney films nominated in them, silly.
The branches wouldn’t have volunteered if they hadn’t presented the option in the first place. Still a stupid decision by the Academy.
It’s like when the elite, in their palaces and high castles, making decisions on behalf of the poor, who have no say.
And WHY were they presented with the option in the first place? WHY? You never explain that, Mr. Bailey. You ABC tool!
So four walk ups and walk offs will be cut from the broadcast, saving them literally seconds of airtime. Who is going to watch a three-hour awards show all the way through that wouldn’t watch a three-hour, 6-minute awards show all the way through? Such inanity.
The more this nonsense continues to go on with the Academy about this year’s broadcast, the less inclined I feel to want to tune in and watch. What a shit show.
I’d say it’ll be more cut than they are letting on, there are 2 things they had better do on the broadcast: 1. Name/ show all the nominees, 2 run the full winning speeches from when they start talking to when they start walking off – uncut regardless of when the music starts playing them off. If they do that then there is no reason to be cutting it down like they are because they won’t save much time at all (maybe 5 minutes between the 4 awards) but if they don’t then this sucks and he is lying when he says they are honouring them properly.
I for one will be watching the live streams of those categories and will be looking to see how much time is actually saved by them doing this! I would wager it’ll be either bugger all and not worth it or a lot because they are cutting out stuff they shouldn’t be. We will see!
Love this Sasha. I’m reminded of your enthusiastic perspective on The Martian which at the time made me watch it again and love it more.
Reading your positive assessments of this year’s crop, I felt a renewed passion for all these movies. And it is true. For your well stated arguments – they would ALL be great winners. Thank you.
great year for black cinema indeed, maybe best ever? — I thought Beale St. was a masterpiece and Widows is criminally underrated; Jenkins/McQueen are, in my opinion, proven auteurs already; every movie done by them, so far, great art.
YES! Beale Street finally opened here last week and it was worth every second of the wait. I really struggled with not putting it as my #1 film of 2018 (ended up giving a razor-thin edge to Cold War).
It’s a gorgeous, audacious and heartbreaking masterpiece that will hopefully grow its reputation in the coming years.
Also, that score and that cinematography, good lord.
Sadly so undervalued this year. It was achingly gorgeous. And Stephan James gave one of the best male performances of the year.
He won my “personal Oscar” for Best Actor this year. 🙂
Beale Street and Widows would be in my nominees for Best Picture and Best Director. Widows should’ve had noms for screenplay, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress for Elizabeth Debicki and Supporting Actor for Daniel Kaluuya. Beale Street should’ve had Best Pic, Director, Actor, and cinematography.
Great article Sasha!! This article confirms that nobody comes close to you when it comes to analyzing the Oscar race