The Academy has capitulated on all of their own proposals to shorten the Oscar broadcast and boost ratings: the host, the popular film category and now the relegation of certain categories to commercial break, like cinematography and editing. The public relations backlash alone made it not worth it, and there’s no guarantee the move would have boosted ratings. Even still, the Academy is going to have a tough time this year getting people to want to watch the Oscars at all. Without a host, it’s difficult to advertise it. Either way, the show must … go on.
According to Deadline:
“The Academy has heard the feedback from its membership regarding the Oscar presentation of four awards – Cinematography, Film Editing, Live Action Short, and Makeup and Hairstyling,” the officers of the Academy’s board of governors said. “All Academy Awards will be presented without edits, in our traditional format. We look forward to Oscar Sunday, February 24.”
Having a popular film category might be a good idea. Maybe the Academy is trying to make up for some those popular films that were snubbed out of the Oscar BP list and/or other critic societies’ BP list for arguably good or bad reason like:
Grease (1978)
Batman (1989)
The Lion King (1994)
Pocahontas (1995)
Cast Away (2000)
The Passion of the Christ (2004)
Spider-Man 2 (2004)
Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire (2005)
Casino Royal (2006)
Superman (1978)
The Dark Knight (2008)
Mamma Mia! (2008)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 (2011)
The Dark Knight Rises (2012)……..maybe
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
Wonder Woman (2017)
etc.
Now, isn’t the best picture category like the popular film category?
[I’m going to post this in a number of places, in an attempt to get as many of the people who voted to see it…]
Results for my 8th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Some quick details about the process, first… I posted the request for ballots in 11 different threads at Awards Daily, as well as in one thread in the Movie Awards Redux forum (where a lot of the old Oscar Buzz gang from the now defunct IMDb message boards have relocated, as far as I can tell). I collected, in total, 45 ballots from Awards Daily and 28 ballots from Movie Awards Redux, plus my and my mom’s, for a total of 75. Three more than last year. As I’ve done in the past, for the separate counts, I assigned my mom’s ballot to the Movie Awards Redux lot, and my own to the Awards Daily lot. In any case, at least this year, the final result 100% would not have changed, for either, had I assigned both to one place or the other, or neither anywhere. I have, as always, a full list of the user names of the people who took part (and to whom I am genuinely grateful), which I can share with anyone who would like to look it over. (I’ve never had such a request, but I’ve always compiled the list anyway.) Nobody’s ballot got counted twice. (Unless somebody voted both places, under different user names, and didn’t tell me about it. Which I doubt.)
All that out of the way… well… 🙂 I have the results, and they’re, perhaps, unusually interesting. (I might go so far as to say they’re definitely that, but that could just be me.) In the overall count, the winner was, EASILY, The Favourite, by a final score of 45-30 over Roma. The two had almost 75% of the total #1 votes. The Favourite was ahead 31-24, and its lead never diminished one bit, but rather increased steadily. BlacKkKlansman finished a very distant third, with A Star is Born fourth. Fourth out (so, finishing in fifth place) was Green Book, third out was Black Panther, second out was Vice and first out was Bohemian Rhapsody, with a lone first place vote. More details on all of this can be found in the round-by-round breakdown below, which I provide every year.
Now, one might come up with the theory that The Favourite winning is mostly due to the votes from Movie Awards Redux, but this actually turns out to not quite be true. The margin is a result of that, but not the win. Counting only the Movie Awards Redux votes, The Favourite wins 20-9 over Roma in the final two – the same margin it had on #1 votes. But the even more interesting news comes from counting only the Awards Daily ballots, where Roma was in first place on #1 votes, 18-14, but only picked up three more votes along the way, losing out, in the end, by the same margin it had originally led by, four votes – 25-21. Not something that happens a lot in these simulations, and, I’m sure, not something most people would have guessed might happen: The Favourite benefiting copiously from the preferential ballot…
Now, why I find this to be potentially relevant even from a predictions perspective: in the previous 7 editions of this simulation that I’ve done, the Best Picture winner has NEVER finished in second place. Not once. It finished in first twice. This, of course, may well be random (the sample is still very small, and the expectancy about one second place), but, on the other hand, what would worry me about it, were I a Roma supporter, would be that it, at least in my opinion, makes a lot of sense that this wouldn’t happen. The Best Picture winner is either a movie that isn’t among the big favorites of the internet community at all (like The King’s Speech, Argo, Spotlight or The Shape of Water – or, apparently, 12 Years a Slave, which finished a rather distant third, tied with The Wolf of Wall Street) or is a movie that’s so popular/beloved, not just by the Academy, that even said community likes it more than everything else (Birdman, Moonlight). It’s true, Birdman DID beat Boyhood by just the one vote, but, nevertheless, it did beat it… And this is not the case this year. Roma lost by a very clear margin. So, maybe, as I and others believe, it is, indeed, a very vulnerable front runner for Best Picture, and The Favourite or Green Book or, who knows, something else entirely, might win instead… Or maybe it just breaks the streak. Equally plausible. However, I would like to point out one more interesting tidbit which isn’t in Roma’s favor: every single DGA winner that went on to lose Best Picture at the Oscars in the modern preferential era (whether it won or lost the PGA) has finished dead second in these simulations. Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land. True, Gravity was tied for first, but lost out fair and square (to Her) via the same tie-breaking method the Academy uses.
I give, again, the results of all of these simulations (this year’s included), for further reference and verification of my statements directly above:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
2019 The Favourite ————- 45-30 over Roma
The breakdown
Round 1
The Favourite 31
Roma 24
BlacKkKlansman 6
A Star is Born 4
Green Book 4
Black Panther 3
Vice 2
Bohemian Rhapsody 1 OUT!
Round 2
The Favourite 31
Roma 24
BlacKkKlansman 6
A Star is Born 5
Green Book 4
Black Panther 3
Vice 2 OUT!
Round 3
The Favourite 32
Roma 24
A Star is Born 6
BlacKkKlansman 6
Green Book 4
Black Panther 3 OUT!
Round 4
The Favourite 33
Roma 25
A Star is Born 6
BlacKkKlansman 6
Green Book 5 OUT!
Round 5
The Favourite 35
Roma 25
BlacKkKlansman 8
A Star is Born 7 OUT!
Round 6
The Favourite 37
Roma 26
BlacKkKlansman 12 OUT!
Round 7
The Favourite 45
Roma 30
Here’s an anonymous Oscar ballot from a Documentarian
https://www.indiewire.com/2019/02/anonymous-oscar-ballot-documentary-roma-the-favourite-1202043236/
In other news Bohemian Rhapsody just won Sound Mixing over ASIB.
I fear the worst at the Oscars.
It was a dumb idea/decision to begin with. I’m glad AMPAS saw that error and made it right.
CAS OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING Winners:
Motion Picture: Bohemian Rhapsody
Animated Movie: Isle of Dogs
Documentary: Free Solo
https://goo.gl/forms/FcNHgqep9CQLyFPl1
I need more data about the Oscars, so I thought inviting one of the biggest Oscar communities would help. If you haven’t seen all of the films that’s fine – the data can account for that.
Cinema Audio Society Animated film winner: Isle of Dogs
I get so upset when I watch the Dove Awards because all the winners do is talk about God and Jesus. Why are people trying to shove their religion down my throat? Why can’t they just say thank you and exit the stage!
It would be miraculous if bohemian Rhapsody won all 5.
So we now have an Academy that is democratic. That’s a very good thing. However, it is incompetent too, which is a bad thing. We don’t want an authoritarian Academy that ploughs on regardless and doesn’t care about what its members or the public say. But it would be nice if it stopped making these unforced errors. It was a victory for democracy and pragmatism in the end. We just hope they reach that conclusion before making their decisions.
Is social equality incompetent?
Citizens who exercise power by voting, is that incompetent?
Is having a popular film category incompetent?
Well said. I’m glad and relieved for the decision to be reversed. I’m fed up with with the current leadership making these boneheaded decisions in the first place only to renege under pressure understandably. How can they be so stupid? The President needs to be replaced immediately after this year’s telecast.
I’ve watched 65 straight Oscar telecasts starting in 1953, and I was opposed to the recent proposed changes they wanted to make. Plus, I still think they should go back to 5 nominees for best picture. I don’t like the preferential ballot either. Other than that, there’s nothing wrong with the Oscars, it’s the people and the times that’s changed. Oscar fans are loyal and will watch the telecast. Stop trying to appease to those who could give a damn.
Bring back Best Picture 5 nominees!!! I’m with you on that one and pretty much everything else
I agree: Bring back just 5 nominees for Best Picture. it was a great format that served us well for over 6 decades. I hate the preferential ballot and ”consensus” winners. The Oscars I grew up following years ago is dead. The race is now mired in identity politics and an incessant orgy of critics’ prizes and manufactured ”film festivals.” I miss the days when it was exciting when a movie hit the double digits in nominations and often was the big winner; I enjoyed seeing the Best Picture victor go hand-in-hand with Best Director. This year’s crop and campaigns have been so depressing.
What’s wrong with solid 10 nominees and a plurality vote for the winner? What is the reasoning why they go against that particular scenario again?
In case anybody missed it, I’d love your vote in my preferential best picture ballot. The participation has been awesome so I really appreciate every one of you! Much love https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BYRND2J
They should add more categories (stunts, casting, ensemble) and tone down the screenplay, going straight to the point: no “jokes” (most land flat), monologues should last maximum 2 minutes.
i thinking that for a looong time myself in fact if they included these oscar categories that would bring more equity to chances of critically acclaimed blockbusters to win some years..rather than now not winning at all in oscars 90 plus yr history .how bout these two as well or make it three:
1. Best visual effects editing
2. Best Visual/Musical composition (as we know musical composition is in all film types depending on sequences seeks to impress upon film audience- not just musicals
3. best animated actor (if academy or least until they wake up give oscar to acting performance with visual effects appearance of say a smeagol/ gollum- which it one oscar lotr should one for acting at very least given this role revolutionized possibilities of acting hence why we had so many high profile cgi- looking character actors since that time.)
so what you think of these mr. Alonso and others? which these could work what others would you add?
i still feel as modern day critically acclaimed blockbuster hit high notes right notes with both critics and audeinces more and more simply not enough other oscar categories to give them at least equal chance to compete with more traditional oscar nominees
those three you mention… I don’t see them. 1 and 3 are already rewarded in their own guilds anyways. 2 probably is a mix of direction and editing, so I don’t see a reason to single it aside.
I think 24 is too many already. Stunts, casting and ensemble? Those have little to do with achievement of a film. Aren’t the last two the same? Actors get credit for performance and that should be enough.
Casting is one thing, finding the right performers for the film and the roles. From discovering Anna Paquin, to thinking of Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody going through Heath Ledger being cast for the Joker, or Yalitza Aparicio in Roma.
Ensemble is a very different story: Hairspray (2007), Gosford Park, Clue, Noises off, etc. Ensemble acting, a team work that elevates the film up to classic status and is the matter of study in acting school (or should be).
This year, from what I saw…
Casting:
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place
Roma
22 July
Ensemble:
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Campeones
The Death of Stalin
The Favourite
But the question is, who get’s the award for Ensemble? all the actors? then what’s the point in handing out individual Oscars if actors can as part of an Ensemble? why should the casting director credit for an actors performance? Anna Paquin deserved the award for performance , which had little to do with a casting director.
take for example, Clue. No particular performance was an Oscar contender (maybe Curry as Wadsworth), but the ensemble was outstanding. Or Bogdanovich’s Noises Off… same situation.
Paquin deserved the Oscar for her performance. The casting director deserved an Oscar for finding her and believing she was perfect for the role.
Casting Directors have been asking for a Casting category since forever. Better than Best Popular Film anyway.
My thoughts on the matter:
I have been following the Oscars since 1997. I am very proud of the fact I have only incorrectly predicted the Best Picture winner 4 times — Aviator, Brokeback Mountain, Revenant, and La La Land. But at the same time, I haven’t watched a full ceremony since 2008. Last year, was the first time I watched some of the ceremony. My reasons for not watching the Oscars have to do with the length and the fact that I could always watch the winners I cared about the next day on Youtube. It had nothing to do with politics or the kinds of movies they nominated. Other people I know said they don’t watch because (a) They haven’t seen most of the nominees, and (b) Oscars gets too political. There are too many slams or jokes about the current man on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
In the minds of the Academy, they are in a crisis. The last four Oscar ceremonies, have been declining in ratings, and last year, they hit a historic low.
If you want more people to watch, here’s what they should do: (1) shorten the ceremony. That’s a biggie. You might actually encourage me to watch the show again. I think showing a montage of the short winners and giving them out during the breaks would work just fine. OR you could simply air them on a different night and expand the categories to include best actor in a short, or best screenplay in a short, and so forth. This of course would draw MORE attention to the short categories. It would help more up and coming directors, actors, and writers a better shot at making it. (2) have the studios tell their actors, writers, and directors to keep politics to a minimum. Yes, we all have opinions about the current state of affairs and how horrible it is, but most people don’t view the Oscars as CNN or Fox News or CBS News.
Besides that, there’s nothing else you can do without alienating people. You cut out the technical categories, people will get upset and argue, “you’re eliminating an important aspect of a film. Don’t air Costume Design? What do you expect, actors to walk around the place naked?”
I wouldn’t value the opinion too much of the people who say they don’t watch the Oscars because it gets too political. They voted for a game show host.
that absolute nonsensical, illogical claptrap theory you have there
Not a theory. Fact. The only people that ever have trouble with the Oscars being political are conservatives. Did you vote for the game show host too?
Your defending indefensible your also saying that only conservatives have a problem with Oscars bring too political ? Sooo your effectively suggesting anyone who neutral or well educated well informed which account for 40% approx those not conservatives in election in any country ( in Australia 2 party preferred averages 50%) u can apply same logic in USA then your saying that it conservatives that only group abandoning Oscars in ratings your comment is incredibly naive ….
it common sense educated well informed people who followed Oscars years includes in part conservatives other demographics that dropped away in a engaging with Oscars thought u be smart enough to work that out already ? Whatever
As Woody Harrelson once so succinctly put it in The Edge of Seventeen, you really need to watch those run-on sentences.
Glad u handle my criticism with class I see where your coming from was only critical u thoughts not u personally as with lot others I appct u difference opinion to mine and where I can try see where u coming from. OK if conservatives made out the group that put off from watching Oscars u have say a 35% decline approx…if u translate a breakdown and I use plotical campaign analogy to explain this principle …in Australia primary vote represents primary demographic first preference vote for.
Primary vote usually consist of 35-40% but consider anywhere from 5-7 % swinging voters. So my view is in our country conservative breakdown is 28-30% .
So what I saying is if audience ratings dropped by 30% about then u could say conservative block is main demograohic boycotting Oscars.
However as u know from ratings that academy’s declines have averaged 45-50% what they used to be on average that is….huge…
Now I know we talking bout American show to primarily American audience …but if shows ratings are at 40-50% less than what they used to be? How Is it viable that entire 50% less viewers watching attributed one social demographic ?
I doubt 45-50% of Americans in whole USA are conservative. There are increasing amount of swinging voters in elections in largeoderate western democracies so doesn’t anyone think it likely that decline I’m viewing ratings of academy is not down one single demographic …just combination of film fans from vast range socio- cultural backgrounds who tired of same old underwhelming decisions academy make?
Just to check did trump or prior that Obama achieve 50% in primaries? of first pple ” preference” or whatever way works in states?
Chase – You’re correct to point out the hypocrisy. It’s not a consistent thread going on, especially since they invented the turn “snowflake”. But at the same time, these people do watch television and see movies. Arguing that 40% of the country should be ignored is rather idiotic. You want as many people as possible to watch the show, regardless of their feelings about the latest President. You also have to consider that some people might be anti-current President, and not appreciate political bashing at an award ceremony. In other words, just because you agree with somebody politically or their overall message, does not mean, they agree with political grandstanding at an awards show.
Now I for one, couldn’t care less what celebrities think about our current leadership. It’s their opinion. It’s free speech. Get over it.
I know several people at my job who absolutely have not and will not watch awards shows anymore because of the political speeches.
Award shows have always had and will always have political speeches — for the past 50 years, and all varieties of shows (Grammys, Emmys, etc) — so maybe the people at your job are just bitter.
The award show itself has not changed or gotten more political. People have just gotten more sensitive.
People may have gotten more sensitive, but that doesn’t change the facts John and I pointed out. Losing customers is a BAD thing.
Oh, they absolutely are bitter and overly sensitive. Just divulging what I encounter all the time.
Do they watch Fox news?
I’m SURE most of them do.
John – Exactly my friend. It’s an issue the Academy will evidently have to confront. It hurts the product.
Now that you mention it, making the Oscars MORE political ensures great social-media value and headlines. The highest rated Oscars in history (1970) featured big nominations for Midnight Cowboy, Butch Cassidy, Alice’s Restaurant, Easy Rider and Z — with several political-themed speeches. Thanks for the suggestion!
For the love of Benji, who is running the Academy, ex-Trump officials? These guys do about turns than a stoner thinking the cops are about to bust in.
Note to the next AMPAS president (since I can’t imagine Bailey survives this mess):
— Consider separating the shorts into a one hour dedicated broadcast on AMC (owner of Shorts TV), to be shown on the Friday before the Oscars. (Saturday is the Indie Spirit Awards). But announce the nominees at the same time as the other categories.
— Line up your host by late summer. Choose a master or mistress of ceremonies, not a stand-up comic.
— Make any further changes to next year’s ceremony in May or June of this year, make them unambiguously and with actual sign-on from the branches.
— Hire an entirely new crew of PR people.
Oh saw blackkKlansman .. .on blue ray pfffft all I can say is I was damn pissed off it was not in cinemas near areas I drive to. And I superb. Unlike vice…it totally complete honest true to historic events film is based on. And manner spike Lee ends film can’t be argued sadly there is a threat on evidence to my shock ( or not) but definite dismay that ” duke duke” is exploiting race riots in 2017 to revive his Klan…I didn’t know this very disturbing if the Klan able function . I even say trump was so irresponsible as to not cone down harder on white supremacists supporters that mowed down blacks. He rue his refusal to loudly condemn such violence there.
Unlike vice this film done with out filmmaker distorting the facts historically, whilst spike Lee struck right balance between fact and keeping to his own convictions without his personal stake in story given filmmakers background making this film vehicle be used for the left activist cause.
Really did hit you hard ( though in different way wolf of wall St which I sincerely regret not being able see on big screen just simply blew your socks off and more – esp those ” lemmos” omg damn Scorsese genius) and by by why the hell did DiCaprio not win best actor ? ( that he should have in Scorsese’s aviator)
Unlike ” Roma” blackkklansmsn is a film relevant to today by bring brutally honest up front bout conflict between races sparked by irrational insanity of hate by the KKK. Yep I certainly cheered for joy when Colorado p.d. revealed they dupped ” duke duke” but all that effort then be in vain if leaders like trump do not cone down hard as he should on white supremcists on that day in 2017 door was left a jar after that day and as film reinforces racism sadly still alive today.
I won’t call blackkklansmsna masterpiece but cones pretty damn close more so incredibly important event that ensured history was not distorted by extreme right and there be more equality through shutdown of the KKK at the time.
But it be In vain and frankly I put it msg how it merges with issue of time without being driven by political activists of today, I put that at least until I see it blackkklansman as second favourite to me below black panther .
My updated chart of Oscar contenders in order preference :
1. Black panther
2. Blackkklansman
3. Green book
4. The favourite
( I won’t bother with rest frankly )
It’s a great film, but:
“Yep I certainly cheered for joy when Colorado p.d. revealed they dupped ” duke duke” but all that effort then be in vain if leaders like trump do not cone down hard as he should on white supremcists on that day in 2017 door was left a jar after that day and as film reinforces racism sadly still alive today.”
I thought you hated when politics influence the Oscar race.
not if the filmmaker has not manipulated the content to something film source material is not..ie: Spike lee is absolutely genuine authentic and heartfelt whereas other contenders well if not directors producers their motives esp for ‘vice’ somewhat for ‘roma’ HIGHLY questionable.lets face it some wont face facts but ONLY reason Roma is a frontrunner is cos very issue that hottest topic in states right now is the ‘border wall’ it impact on american lives however, putting that aside, blackkklansman is driven by timeless challenging issue…no matter what decade you lived in- it unfortunate reality war against racial discrimination that reference where esp coming from filmmaker of high integrity in spike lee , nobody can quesiton his motives.
We still dont know producers motives (Cuaron notwithstanding) for Roma, and we know Vice is a political bash job against political establishment currently (party wise speaking)
But yes there politics but it mature way and rational way it done..and film unashamedly ends rightfully so linking war against racism in main story of film to today.
This film deserves to be a dark horse cos unlike some other contenders it transcends political issues of time to reflect a timeless struggle.
Finally with both Black Panther and Blackkklansman leading way with average score between rotten tomatoes and meritacritic with brilliant average of 95% the critics spoken irrespective they didn’t win critics choice outside of left wing activist critic groups overall online..they love panther and blackkklansman.
As for notion film ratings are not linked to type of films nominated…then someone explain to me or dare to convince me (not you aroncido mate as u didnt raise it but feel free to but others) how most popular oscar winner in our generation Return of the King recorded second highest ratings since the turn of the century and one of highest? reason? choices for film nominated by academy = rating winner all rest of stuff shortening show etc i accept at a point that part of it but you can cut it to bone have shitty ordinary or this year? half mediocre films in nomination best pic cut and it will make shit for difference recent oscar history proves that.
Frankly I strongly believe if Bohemian Rhapsody, Blackkklansman and Black Panther had more nominations given these films so loved in public you can be sure more nominations= more publicity and hence more people look at list of nominees and go ‘gee’ backing films i like for a change, most of us talk about and debate.
Sadly, only people debating Roma other some online is twitter sphere, pro-online streaming groups, but it not in discussion at all wherever i go – people when i walk through cineplex speak to friend on phone talk about bohemian rhapsody– pointedly on this site Sasha praises Black Panther and Blackkklansman as those films deserve…and people after Black Panther when i saw it were absolutely buzzing about impression it left on them.
So how of minority here who claim so is it gonna hurt may even improve oscar ratings to consider films people care about not just bout fanboy stuff? it beyond that? it cross cultural how that bad thing for oscars wellbeing public reputation? what happening this year in oscar race continuing last year and no of years in last 5-7 years is absolute clusterfuk they know it but academy poor leadership means they dont give a shit..so with attitude like that why should we? is it any wonder film audiences are totally disiluusioned increasingly disenchanted with academy? and this will only i predict at best what they discussing now to improve telecast quality all that shit, will only deliver marginal improvement to the shows ratings…
it not rocket science people…give ,more nominations at very least to type of films that pple do buzz care and are enthusiastic about along with critics and you get ratings winner…unbelievably embarrassing to us the embarrassment academy has become to lot of us
“The Academy has heard the feedback from its membership regarding the Oscar presentation of four awards – ”
Yea? What about feedback system for submissions from most avid followers of academy from film going public ? See this is fundamental problem with the academy it ” all about them , screw filmgoers we don’t matter”
( except for fact that without film goers you not have film industry you bloody dickhead academy )
I say well done to us Oscar fans! After all these pressures we sent to the Academy and ABC, we were able to save the show. Now I’m sure gonna watch it. My only worry is if the past winners will present their counterparts. Quite disappointed to be honest last year that Emma Stone had to present Directing instead of Lead Actor. I mean they coukd have swapped it with Mirren and Fonda presenting Directing instead.
Of course the artists, guilds and organizations effort to let yheir voices be heard in the midst of this dumb decisions should not be ignored as well. Thank you all!
They did reverse course on that bad decision. My understanding is that Emma Stone presented director because Casey Affleck wasn’t going to be there because of the scandal, so if they were going to have two other people handing out Best Actress they wanted to do the same with best actor for symmetry and they had Stone give out Best Director to say “nothing personal.”
The only speech it makes sense to cut is John Bailey’s.
Dude has shown himself to not get the Oscars AT ALL.
Even worse, dude has shown himself to be an ABC puppet who tries selling lies to a bunch of artists he’s expected to represent. He better resign.
But to be fair to him, he has backed down every time his decision was questioned.
Yeah, you’re right. But now that he has changed his mind, he deserves to have his speech heard.
Bravo! It was a bullshit idea in the first place and it thankfully got buried!
While it would be easy to make fun of the Academy for reversing yet another decision, I applaud them for making the right decision. The artists get the recognition they so richly deserve, and the Oscar viewer “base” gets what it wants. Had they not made this decision, I would have skipped the show entirely for the first time in my adult life. As a community we’d do well to spare the jokes and celebrate this decision.
Why couldn’t they invite Ellen to host again? Or maybe get Hugh Jackman to host again?
Beatty and Dunaway could do it. Then when we don’t like the winners we can blame them! Not the Academy.
Jackman said he would love to but he had scheduling conflicts.
Ellen might do it for $5 million. But I bet not.
You really can’t just have A-list celebrities drop everything and sign on to something like this at a moments notice.
Alicia Keys was great at the Grammies, of course she is a a-list musician.
Another borefest is on the way! Hurray!
Good. Now if the show can be called “The 91st Annual Academy Awards” rather than just “The Oscars” for the actual telecast, that would make me even more happy.
Oh and fire John Bailey this July and Dawn Hudson when her term expires in 2020. And move the telecast back to mid March so everyone has time to see the nominated films.
Exactly. If people did not see the nominated films, they wont see the oscars telecast. It has been a struggle trying to catch all the nominated films on the big screen or on iTunes. I say this even though I live in San Francisco, imagine people living in other parts of the country.
EXCELLENT NEWS! Also, ignore if voted, but, if not:
[I’ve added my vote, below my mother’s, as I’ve finally been able to see The Favourite:]
I once again invite all of the good folks willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and, hopefully, help us all better understand how this year’s mad Best Picture race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot is likely to affect it. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all of those who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all of those who are about to, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will actually happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) The four-year streak of the movie that (according to most accounts) came in second place at the Oscars each year finishing in exactly second place in this simulation ended last year, but only sort of, as Three Billboards was eliminated in third place despite being TIED with the second place finisher in that round. (Call Me By Your Name only went through after I checked to see which of the two would have lost the “final” by a larger margin. I have no idea what the Academy does in these situations – when there is a tie for precisely second place. They probably count first place votes, like they do when there is a tie for first place.) So, in any case, one can say the Oscar Best Picture “loser” has always at least tied for second place (and never come in first) in this simulation over the last five years. Therefore, it will be very interesting, at least for myself, to see what finishes in that fateful position this year…
8th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
So, please rank the eight Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you would like to see each of them win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rather rank them according to your own tastes and wishes, of course)!
I would say that, ideally, a voter should have seen everything this year, or at least made an effort to do so (*cough* Roma – I know some people have had serious trouble getting through that… I didn’t, personally, though I also didn’t love it.), since most of the voters probably will have as well and, more importantly, any of the eight can be argued to have a shot at winning Best Picture. (Even though I, personally, believe only five or six of them, at most, can. And many people by now think it’s down to only two…)
I plan to keep voting open until Saturday or Sunday. I might also decide to close voting and calculate the results on Friday. We’ll see – I’ll give due notice either way, as usual.
My mother’s ballot (I asked her to rank these after she saw the last one, shortly after the nominations announcement, because I knew she might forget how she felt about at least some of them afterwards – prescription medication, long story -, so I felt that would probably be more relevant than having her rank them now):
1. Green Book
2. A Star is Born
3. Vice
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Black Panther
7. The Favourite
8. Roma
Update: I, too, can vote now, having finally seen The Favourite…
1. A Star is Born
2. Vice
3. Green Book
4. The Favourite
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. Roma
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. Black Panther
The roll of honor:
2011 The Social Network —– details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty ——— 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her ————————– 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman ——————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight —————— 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread ——— 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name
1. Roma
2. The Favourite
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Black Panther
5. A Star is Born
6. Vice
7. Green Book
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
My ranking would be exactly the same as yours if you swap “The Favourite” and “Black Panther”.
1.Roma
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Black Panther
4. The Favourite
5. Green Book
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. A Star is Born
8. Vice
Anne Thompson recently described John Bailey as being uniquely unsuited to the modern PR cycle and that is completely true. His decision to unveil the idea of a Popular Film category happened in the worst possible year and the fact that he did it without working out the details made it easy to dismiss. He was completely blindsided by the issues Kevin Hart was going to pose and botched the PR around it to the point where they couldn’t save things. And he was completely blind to what putting these four categories in the commercial breaks was going to look like.
THIS.
This year’s ceremony should begin with Thanos snapping his fingers, and making John Bailey and Dawn Hudson disappear.
I can’t even…
While they’re at it, can they do something retrospectively about Best Actress in 1950 and Best Picture in 1998 please.
Thanks in advance, Mr. Bailey.
The Thin Red Line for Best Picture/Direction/Cinematography!
I love 1950 best actress. Yes, Bette Davis created an iconic character as did Swanson but I adore Judy Holliday in Born Yesterday. The performance is just as iconic and I love this rare comic performance (and a performance that’s as copied as Davis’s) to win an acting Oscar.
I wouldn’t give it to Davis. I’d give it to Swanson!
I’m exhausted and the Oscars haven’t even aired yet. I feel like a child caught in the middle of my parents’ divorce.
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BYRND2J any and all participants are welcome and appreciated! Much love
Good! But on second thought that Best Editing category is so depressing they can keep it off the show.
But so is Best Supporting Actor.
Smile.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ce87cad442a61def0d3851232a51e409a391d1f30e1552d6eb9f5802ff35426.jpg
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c18f550a8c2cdbaa3cf0cd2d5403b1459a6289dde48c8c47bf99478dae6450cf.jpg
For a second there I thought I read “A Film by Claire Danes”
Good.
Stars sell movies. And there are no star movies anymore. MI-Fallout had Tom Cruise and that was a great movie and DISGRACEFULLY, it wasn’t even nominated. Therefore, low Oscar ratings.
Perhaps next year with Leo DiCaprio coming out with a movie, there will be a bump in ratings, assuming he gets nominated of course.
To me bohemian rhapsody and green book hit every cut, ever curve, every sound mixing and editing, to photograph on film. I hope Elton johns rocketman gives a even a bigger boost of rock stars winning for best actor but I think rami malek is just incredible as Freddie Mercury and bales portrayal of dick Cheney in vice. Just wow on the makeup and hairstyling
I don’t mind a 4 hour telecast, but if they awarded all of the documentary and shorts categories off-air I wouldn’t mind, personally.
The problem with not airing feature film tech awards is that we need to see what films have the momentum over the course of the night.
Here’s a radical idea of how to shorten the show: eliminate the gags such as having a tour bus full of random people walk through the Oscars, or Neil Patrick Harris trying to have the audience guess what was inside of a suitcase all night. *Sheesh*
That’s just it. If they’re THAT desperate to shorten the show … 3 Shorts on another night … combine both Sounds into one … get rid of the stupid shit as you mentioned (bloated set-ups, gags, montages, etc) … remind winners to get to the stage as quickly as they can and not to go long on their speeches. Just GET ON WITH IT. We’re tuning in to see the stars and see what wins/loses. 3 hours is do-able, or even 3:15 if they must. And I also agree with others that the show should be able to start at 7pm or 7:30pm easily. Start the Red Carpet at 6pm, not 7pm.
Now bring back Kevin Hart!
No thanks.
Now bring back the Lifetime Achievement Oscar recipients.
Because his appointment as host was not controversial? I think you missed the point.
As the Oscars will discover again, it’s not the length of the show, it’s the movies and actors that win. The ratings decline was because the Academy, not ABC, chose best picture winners that only Indie Spirits aficionados could love.
It’s a bunch of people randomly marking down choices. It’s not like they meet in a large group and decide on who to unanimously give the Best Picture prize to
Leave the Oscars alone! The show is supposed to be 4 long damn hours!
And leave baseball alone! It’s supposed to take 3 hours!
” Without a host, it’s difficult to advertise it.”
People in the know, how do they actually advertise it? Anyone seen any commercials or posters?
They normally have commercials with the host saying and/or doing something banal against a simple backdrop and Oscar imagery. What I’ve seen this year has been the latter two with a simple announcement of its airing.
I prefer a host, but it looks like it’s too late for that now. Dwayne Johnson Aubrey Plaza or Maya Rudolph for 92nd Oscars I guess.
They could make clips with images from the nominated films showcasing the celebrities who are expected at the ceremony and intersperse with images of Hollywood, the red carpet, the Dolby Theater, Oscars, even iconic moments from previous ceremonies, mix it all into something quick and exciting like advertisers do nowadays while a big voice tells us about “the biggest show in Hollywood”. It’s not that difficult with or without a host. In fact, it might be better than the traditional host ad.
I am wondering if the Academy CEO and ABC were putting pressure on Bailey to cut the time down due to lack of ratings and viewership between 2014-2017. Or possibly on his own discretion. Either way, it was a bad decision made by the CEO, ABC, Bailey or all three.
Thank god for that.
Let’s just hope that they start to kill these bad ideas in inception before announcing and feeling them out in public opinion and inevitably capitulating to common sense (which has their best interests at heart as a platform of prestige). Whilst this back-tracking makes them laughable, hopefully they can learn from this, back themselves in and embrace their core audience niche forevermore rather than diluting themselves into ether extinction. The public outcry again and again demonstrates that short-term gains selling their long-term interests upriver will not be tolerated.
The fact that there is no host should indicate a shorter telecast. The idea of pushing any category to during a commercial break should have never left the boardroom. Yes, there still would have been four oscars awarded, but in pushing them out of the televised ceremony, you are putting the winners in an awkward situation, takes away a portion of their celebration, and prevents their family, friends, colleagues and other supporters from sharing in that celebration!
I can live without both shorts and makeup. I can also live without sound and costume. but editing and cinematography? no.
That’s exactly why this decision was so misguided from the beginning: it automatically creates a heirarchy of which awards are more “worthy” of being on the telecast when in reality every single category is full of hard-working professionals who have worked their entire lives for this moment and don’t deserve to have that taken away just because you or I or Bailey or anyone thinks their craft is less “glamorous” or “exciting” or “worthy” than another.
I can’t see how all of this doesn’t result in a drastic change in the organisation’s leadership next year.
Then again, look at the world we live in…
Great job
Can we just talk about the fact that whatever “new decision” the Academy took over the last year was an utter disaster from the get-go? A “popular film” Oscar category? What the actual fuck? Is this The People’s Choice Awards or something? So they reverse their decision. Remove four categories from the main show? That’s an even worse idea to say the least. So they reverse that decision as well. Their initial decision to shorten the show in order to last 3 hours is just awful. Everyone who loves The Oscars knows they should remain as they were. Oh, and that’s with a host but whatever, this year has been a travesty when it comes to The Oscars so far…
As many predicted. But the damage is done to their reputation, or what was left of it.
Exactly.