We don’t need to go on and on about how strange this Oscar year is. We all know it’s strange. Adding in popular movies did not seem to make the Best Picture slate all that more interesting. Perhaps they will boost the ratings a little tonight.
Other than that, what is your greatest hope for tonight’s Oscars? Any last minute secret wishes? I suppose I hope that Spike Lee wins Best Director – even though I know Cuaron deserves to win and will win and that is perfectly okay. But if Spike wins? Well, that would be a moment indeed.
I will be attending the show, Jazz will be working the press room and Ryan will be at Mission Control.
Last minute wishes? Last minute recipe ideas for Oscar snacks?
Love how so many normies will be watching only because they fully believe Black Panther is gonna win Best Picture. Kind of awkward to think about tbh.
LOL, Spike Lee just said on the red carpet
1. It won’t matter for this film if it wins an Oscar or not
2. Do The Right Thing didn’t win an Oscar and it’s still great
3. He should’ve gotten a Best Director nomination before
Now that the voting period is over… 😀
Truth 🙂
Hmmmm…..it matters to him, really really bad. He’s been out in California for a month, on every TV show that will have him, from NY to California. He wants to win SOMETHING!
No, he meant that he thinks that the film is good and important enough so that it will be remembered even if it doesn’t win an Oscar. Clearly some sort of a taunt to actually give him something.
Could Ethan Hawke surprise in Best Actor?
We’re nearly there!
Editing BoRhap or Vice ? i have a feeling…the john ottman salvaged the movie narrative is sentimental only to editors and not to other branches in the academy who already rewarded borhap with best actor and they might go with vice
BoRhap
Vice
Right now I’d say Vice. Before, I was leaning BoRhap. (And my official prediction is The Favourite, that’s how crazy that category is.)
I have thought about switching from “Roma” to “The Favourite” for BP. The brutally honest Oscar ballots are making me uneasy because “Roma” isn’t doing well with them and TF is doing better in the rankings even when it’s not their no 1. However, I am still sticking with “Roma” because the stats are too strong.
If the Oscar host is Whoopi Goldberg then the alarm bells will sound loudly. It will have the feel of 1999 all over again. The BP favourite by a great auteur and Oscar winner beaten by a British period piece film. “Shakespeare in Love” won screenplay, supporting actress, techs and infamously an upset win in Best Actress. There were two queens (both Elizabeth 1st) that year just like this year (Queen Anne and Mercury).
Awesome, sounds like my kind of night!
Honestly, out of all possible scenarios, a war between Roma and The Favourite — easily the two best BP nominees — would be a dream come true. If Roma’s going to lose to anything, it should be that.
If only…
I think I didn’t count Shakespeare in Love as a precedent for The Favourite because it was in a stronger position on at least two of my four criteria. (13-11 on nominations, and had won the Globe and would win BAFTA later on.) But of course it’s pretty close to being a precedent. However, I did count Saving Private Ryan as a loss precedent for Roma. (Since it won the PGA too, and ACE.)
Hosting my 22nd consecutive Oscars night with friends. We are so old our older children have started entering the nominating competition!
Winner gets a statuette amongst other prizes. We have a yearly quiz and door prize too.
The hardest part is avoiding the media so we don’t hear any winners beforehand- we tape and watch at night Australia-time.
I’ve picked Green Book for BP, almost everyone else is Roma. It might win the night for me. I hope I’m wrong.
Sounds great. I used to hold UK parties live but everyone was asleep or gone by the second supporting category. Apart from me of course.
And so comes to a close the most shameful season since I’ve been following the game. The awfulness is not done with completely, I fear. I predict high ratings on account of the very two popular Best Picture nominees. I hope I can make it tonight and be with y’all. I’m still not sure I have the motivation. Can’t confirm just yet.
I’ve got my popcorn kernels and I’m ready to drive back to my parents’ house to do as I do every year and watch the Oscars with my mother. I started out watching it as a teen and I live in a different city now but still within driving distance so I take the day off and drive back and make an afternoon out of it (it airs at 2pm here). The only year I have missed was the spotlight year when I was in Hong Kong but every other year I’ve managed to make it home.
Last minute wishes:
– Madre for live action short( a weird voice I know but a really great film)
– Close or Colman to win actress (a wish and a very probably reality but one that would just make me so happy)
– Spike Lee getting an Oscar (I don’t care what for – director, writer, producer).
Then tomorrow it tonight I will post by objectively correct personal best of year awards and that’s it for another season!
Also I should add: first man in as many categories as possible! Except for visual effects where Infinity War should win!
Awesome! I also watch them with my mom. 🙂
My mom wouldn’t even be able to stay up until 2, let alone 6 😀
We have more irregular sleeping patterns in my family… 🙂 Even so, it’s still not easy to make it, especially for my mom. I’m up until 6-7 in the morning most days (though it varies greatly, over time), so I’ve never really missed an awards show on account of that. (Thankfully, my work allows me to have such a schedule. I sleep until late in the afternoon.)
Well, that was a DIFFERENT opening 🙂
I just took my yearly shower and brushed my teeth. I am all ready to go to bed now and wake up in the middle of the night. Wishing all them queens out there a lovely evening!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/32012ae04a29ebef3282b79b051d8be6e7b06fc2038edbbd50d9dac8a864492d.png
PS: Whatever you do, please try not to look like a badger! It is most unbecoming.
This is by far the most excited I’ve been about an Oscars in years. I love going in not having a clue for many. God, it’s was boring AF last year.
To everyone saying Colman deserves it — Glenn Close gave the best performance this year, it is not just a career award. The complex emotions she displayed without overacting in The Wife were brilliantly sad and glorious rebellion against the patriarchy at the same moment.
Thank you very much.
I think Close was fantastic, but at the same time think Colman was better and deserves it better. It’s not impossible to think both at the same time.
While I do think both performances were brilliant the reason why I give the edge to Close isn’t because she is overdue it is because she carried her film alone. It is “Best Actress in a LEADING role” after all. I do love Colman though, who couldn’t ?
I think both were fantastic! I have been staunchly standing up for the wife all season… It’s a great movie and she gives an incredible performance in it. The fact that she’s so overdue too just adds to how great it’ll be when she wins. But Colman was also incredible in the Favourite and both will give great speeches so I’ll be really happy with whoever wins (as long as it’s not Gaga who was great but will win in the place she really deserves to – song).
running order released:
https://twitter.com/AwardsCircuit/status/1099823877369315328
They start with supporting actress? Damn, they kill the suspense off quick.
Couldn’t agree more.
PSA they created an Oscar Lives thread so just move on over there
Helen Mirren is presenting the award for Documentary.
Loved how that the interviewer treated Yalitza and Marina like recently-arrived war refugees.
Whoever wins Best Editing we lose or is there a good one in there, remind me please?
The Favourite. Also my prediction.
Would approve too.
I love how calm I am about the outcome for BP this year. I think I’ve been successful in my quest, in that sense, even though I didn’t stick to my original plan quite as much as I would have liked. Anyway, watching the red carpet (in the background, true) for the first time in years, got my homemade pizza close by, the milk and Pepsi ready… Good stuff! 🙂 Let Roma win! Who cares?! It’ll still be a fun night.
I’m happy for you. The thought of either Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody winning BP makes me extremely UN-calm. Trying to tell myself it won’t happen, but I’m verrrry nervous.
I’d hate to see Green Book win but I’ve predicted it so if it wins at least I get my prediction right !!
Silver linings…
I prefer wine or beer 🙂
I’m just glad my power is not off, and I got home from a family gathering in time to be only slightly behind.
Richard E. Grant truly is the smoothest, classiest campaigner. Can’t believe he’s gonna lose. Unforgivable.
Just a thought. I’m watching (on mute) 2 hours of Red Carpet blather. It started at 5pm CT and it goes until 7pm. Just a suggestion: Why not use 1 of those hours for the technical awards, like Editing, cinematography, etc. I would watch it vs. this red carpet dullness.
Excellent suggestion!
In an ideal world they’d stream those awards because ABC and the other netorks/outlets aren’t going to give up the stuff that the hoi polloi watch (and that the non-ABC networks can air)
Any links to follow the ceremony outside the US? Thanks in advance!!!
You can check if a local network airs it (many do) or if not, you can google something like ABC live stream and look for something slightly illegitimate.
Here’s the red carpet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Bi2jnZM4Qk
Thank you so much!!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5c29bd33bfcc5c1134a1dee83ef91c1b0ef34979aced8434947b2fc37da526d2.jpg
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a8cdbf2fe211324611bed5f583ae0fb8ba9e4ada1c234d9e3ac8a1af79380b06.jpg
Is that from The Best Years of Our Lives?
Yes
The best movie of all time “The Last Emperor” period.
The Last Emperor is awesome…
First is Mrs. Miniver.The Great William Wyler touched hearts. Greer Garson and Fredric March both won and both were best in pictures. Teresa Wright won for Mrs Miniver. Dana Andrews and Myrna Loy were never nominated, but she was given an honorary Oscar. Both were tops in the box office in the US and UK.
Somehow, I didn’t like that movie much, even though I remember being very excited to see it at the time… (Same goes for The Best Years of Our Lives, though that one I liked a little bit more.)
Jazz please let us know the order of the categories
No page has published the list so far, so I believe noone knows.
NBC News has- don’t know if it’s right
Supporting actor
Makeup
Costume
Doc feature
Sounds
Prod design
Foreign language
Supporting actress
Animated short
Animated feature
VFX
Editing
Doc short
Live action short
Screenplays
Cinematography
Score
Song
Directing
Actor
Actress
Picture
And Supporting Actress? The single most exciting category :D?
This is last year’s list of nominations.
It’s in their 2019 guide
It’s not accurate. Apparently they did the same thing before.
It’s the one from last year.
I think all press are forbidden from releasing the info. They don’t want it leaked.
But why? They release that stuff every year. Not like anyone actually cares to read it other than hardcore fans.
No idea. But it was ‘leaked’ the past couple of years. Hopefully it will be this year.
This awards season has frequently felt like a bad dream — but I’ve gotta say, there’s still nothing quite like the combination of nerves and anticipation of Oscar night. In the immortal words of Stephen Sondheim, I’m excited AND scared!
It’s been another wild ride and I can’t wait to do it with you guys all over again… starting tomorrow!
Tomorrow? Why wait?!
The Irishman for BP!
“there’s still nothing quite like the combination of nerves and anticipation of Oscar night”
Brilliantly put! There’s, indeed, nothing like it…
I think next season will be even worse.
Why ? Be optimistic 🙂
I’m watching the UK red carpet show and there are literally two Bohemian Rhapsody ads in each ad break. And what’s worse, these adverts are a lot worse than the film itself. I’m going to go crazy until 1am.
If you have never watched in the UK before, get ready for the insufferable Alex Zane during the advert breaks…
My feelings after watching “The Favourite”: Take my hat off to Colman; give Weisz a hug; and give Stone a slap (mostly for stamping on that helpless rabbit).
Colman was amazing, wasn’t she?!… And Emma Stone was SO convincingly evil and so convincingly fake at the same time. 🙂
I only completed seeing all the BP nominees last night. I have consistently listed BR and ASIB last, and although that still holds, BR surprised me by doing the standard artist biopic thing in a way that kept my attention while ASIB, more cinematically accomplished, annoyed me no end. Jackson to me was creepy and controlling and his boo-hoo backstory doesn’t cancel that out. In other viewing, Widows was better than I expected and, despite Close’s terrific performance, The Wife was creaky and old-fashioned in a way that made Green Book look like Godard!
I would recommend pieces of pineapple dipped in hot chocolate, then you can get a bucket and a mop for the aftermath.
If I had to pick one thing I’d like Christian Bale or Bradley Cooper to win best actor over Malek.
This x1000. Malek’s first well known film and he wins an Oscar for BEST ACTOR? For wearing false teeth and lip syncing popular Queen songs? There is not a single moment from his performance that stands out. This win is not going to age well at all.
I agree – we’s going to win for Lip Sync Battle. Steven Merchant is better.
One of Roma or The Favourite win BP please.
Also at least one of Colman, Weisz upset please.
Just finished watching “Roma” for a second time. My only wish for tonight is to see it making history and winning “Best Picture” – such a marvellous work of art!
A surprise win for Willem Dafoe would be lovely.
And I hope that Roma, The Favourite, Blackkklansman, Beale Street and Can you ever forgive me? get everybody an Oscar
Brown Cow Stunning! Gives me that ooh aah sensation!
what time is the actual ceremony ?
In about 3 hours and a half.
In four hours from now.
just got some greek yogurt and some cheese onion roasted peanuts, did a tuna casserole earlier and that’s that.
i will be rooting for cold war on cinematography, lee for directing, either green book or bohrap for film (but predicting roma to win) and close for acting but would be overjoyed to see aparicio and weisz win too
I hope put simply the academy knock their head against a brick wall hard enough to shake some sense in to them…by continuing the tradition of the 90 yrs prior to embrace a big screen movie showing at cineplexes rather than embracing Netflix or any online streaming for best picture that only been prominent globally for ONLY handful of years vs. Overwhelmingly majority of Oscars history embracing silver screen cineplex movies.
My fear of course is that deeply regrettable and oscar will regret it even if in likely event ratings are respectable..that Roma will win..sparking conflict and division in ever increasingly fragmented disunited academy/ guilds/ awards season.
But my hope on other hand is that Roma did not score plenty other key wins to secure it as ouewrifht favourite and far superior films of either green book, black panther, blackkklansman or bohemian rhapsody win best picture.
Can go either way but as always I expect be disappointed thanx a lot academy you guys suck ( hope I wrong)
I hope the Academy also continues the tradition of having only black&white films as eligible for Best Cinematography! That made so much sense.
Also, please, please, please stop calling films that you haven’t seen bad, or others “superior” to it. You can root for whatever you want, but it’s unfair to rate a film you haven’t seen. You can’t know if you would like it or not.
With respect friend you cannot compare black and white films oy being nominated to far more significant tradition and LORE of academy rejecting as they should the threat of online streaming which frankly does not need support of academy …they have their own demographics their own audiences and make a killing profit wise from it..the academy were formed for foundation. Of big screen movies on big screen and mark my words every risk Oscar will be more divisive complex and messy lose it way more if they embrace line streaming services .
I certain ly not mean be rude to you you long been rational my responses I regard you S a friend if we may disagree I do respect we disagree of course in fact I do hope SPK with you in future Oscar races. Hopefully next year we find common ground rooting for same type of movies.
However I know enough about Roma to strongly feel it story is hardly unprecedented nor is it that ambitious …it black and white ( which frankly should not he default choice win an Oscar as it been every time black and white film. Featured since ” the man who wasn’t there” won).
And really Roma will be forgotten when you take away fact it might be game changer for academy …in context of it type of story and it true worth value significance personally to most other cinema viewers …compared to other Oscar contenders this year
It may be beautifully photographed but a story frankly bout literally filmmakers background a filmmaker by no means is as well renowned as true big heavyweights in industry …I find be inaccessible to same majority of film audiences who be more enthusiastic for bohemian rhapsody , black panther, blackkklansman , green book.
There are flaws shortcomings cos I seen films of similar style before and I over these indie obscure film types as lot people are dominating Oscar in last decade.
Even if Roma wins it huge defeat for silver big screen tradition and LORE that always have always should be for vast embrace of big screen movies.
I certain would not dismiss the king of all filmmakers in Steven Spielberg and his justified power and influence in Hollywood when he dismisses Roma or any other live stream movie as a ” movie for TV” that a warning across the bows of the academy of I predict the imminent consequences of rebelling against the key traditional voter base still strong in academy…but we see whether they forget who they are what they stand for and why they served on academy for decades and decades prior.
This is why I dismiss Roma and besides what shits me? Is Roma will not be in cinemas whwew clear majority of film goers globally support cinema movies not live stream …plenty pple as coat living pressures go up cannot afford online subscriptions frankly it madness Oscar are considering this ….it really really goes against their reason to existence e give Roma a emmy maybe golden globe…but for fuk sake doesn’t matter how ” gorgeous “films cinematography is if it not released in cineplexes at least in my country forget it …
I’m sorry but the modern theater experience is irritating. Technology will come up with better options including augmented reality type wearable devices. In the meantime I am more than happy to wait for it to stream or come out on BluRay and watch on my home theater system. No annoying patrons with their foul food, talking, texting… I can start when i want and pause when i need. Movie theaters will go the way of bowling alleys. Only hard core junkies and those on an occasional nostalgia binge will go there.
I can see how people can think what you do..I respect that BUT sorry to say live streamed made- for PC screen/ TV ” movies” are not big screen movies..otherwise if they were they be releases on big screen.
Honestly if Netflix are get breakthrough has to be fukin more significant film than merely film that reflects this years times only.
As I said before we should be debating rise of high quality critically acclaimed genre film blockbuster ( black panther) vs. Old style Hollywood revivals ( stand and Ollie)/ ambitious sequels to classics that dare make light of day and succeeded enormously ( Mary Poppins returns) vs. Socio- cultural quality dramas that have timeless relevance and original but true story ( green book and blackkklansman ). Vs. Defining historic event biopic ( bohemian rhapsody , first man
Instead academy are stupidly like a bunch of chickens that lost their heads and their minds ….shutout some film I mentioned undermined them get less nominations than they deservefrom get go ( black panther, bohemian rhapsody, blackkklansman ), and let the bully boys aggressively pushing the controversial social media driven online fanboys agenda reduce this race to a ” to embrace or not to the embrace live stream movies” .
All I can say good luck convincing traditional Oscar voters to embrace future Netflix ” film” when inevitable split happens …unless if ROMA wins and academy listen for once to their traditional decades long membership base and readjust bases on future feedback that indeed seek to make this year as a abherration of Oscar outcome.
And of films you believed on big screen shoulsa been nominated can anyone honestly say academy had no option but to include Netflix telemovie? …so they regard that more than Stan and Ollie, on the basis of sex, first man, the frontrunner, a private war, really? Even if it weren’t on Netflix Roma indeed looks great visually but is it story it contribution to Hollywood more profound more lasting than these film titles will be remenveed for in years to come? I very much doubt it..
And usually so far my predictions of drop in audienxe support to introducing preferential ballot in place of old system , letting politics dictate drive their decisions over merit of height of achievement in a film ( which it should be) and I predicted Oscar snubs since year of” the dark knight ” would lead to slump in audience care and respect and I predict if academy reaalky determined stubbornly roll the dice fuk up their public reputation give the finger to stalwarts that kept academy afloat before live stream was even in existence , then anytime from next year to bye now and a few years time idea of split in academy will occur..and we be biggest losers out of it let hope then far superior alternative films to Roma win this year for ours and academy’s sake
Anyone seen the order of categories yet?
As of yet unreleased.
Apparently Jazz will let us know when she knows since she’ll be there
Jazz is a girl? I thought she was a guy lol.
It does get confusing sometimes, especially as Marshall has a woman on his avatar!
Talk about confusing, we have so many Alex on here. It’s crazy.
I assume you haven’t listened to any podcasts with her, she’s definitely female and very British (I mean that with complete affection btw).
Thank you.
Will Mavity (who, I’m pretty sure, is good old “kmavity” from the IMDb message boards days) tallied all of the anonymous ballots found online. (Which I also wanted to do, and got most of the way through – at least that allows me to confirm his findings with confidence, based on what I’d already compiled myself -, before I discovered it had been done.) The results are here:
https://twitter.com/mavericksmovies/status/1099529251496222720?s=20
The only categories where there were both enough votes tallied for semi-relevance and a single movie/person had a clear lead were picture (Roma, 9-5 over Green Book, with The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther on 4, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice on 1), supporting actress (King 17-3 over Weisz, who was in second place), supporting actor (Grant 13-8 over second place Ali, with Adam Driver on 5), animated feature (Spider-Man 9-2 over Incredibles 2), song (Shallow 9-3 over the Buster Scruggs song) and makeup (where Vice got all 6 votes) – and maybe original screenplay, where The Favourite only led 8-6 over First Reformed, but with perceived main threat Green Book (and Vice) on just 4 votes.
Potential upsets signaled by these:
– Spike Lee for director (8-9 down to Alfonso Cuaron), but I’ve already called this as a “won’t win”, so this isn’t happening;
– Olivia Colman for actress (10-11 down to Glenn Close);
– Christian Bale for actor (10-8 up over Rami Malek), but Will says he couldn’t count that article with 20 voters who mostly voted for Rami Malek (understandably, as there were no specific votes mentioned there);
– Richard E. Grant for supporting actor (13-8 up over Mahershala Ali);
– First Reformed for original screenplay (only 6-8 down to The Favourite);
– Cold War and Shoplifters for foreign film (only 4-5 down to Roma);
– BlacKkKlansman for original score (5-4 up over Black Panther, with If Beale Street Could Talk on 3).
It also (of course, if these are to be believed at all) looks like adapted screenplay might be down to BlacKkKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk, which are tied for first, 9-4 up over third place and WGA winner Can You Ever Forgive Me?…
***
Update: I also did my own tabulation of every anonymous ballot I could find online. (I decided to finish it, since I had so little left to do and I noticed I had some tech votes, at least, that kmavity didn’t – like a lot of votes for Vice in editing, which I’m not sure how he missed.) There were 30 (one of which didn’t list a pick for anything other than documentary short – the others all voted on at least picture, most of them on all of the major categories and some of them on techs, too), two more than what kmavity found. I think they might be a different 30. I know for sure I had at least some anonymous ballots he didn’t have, and that he had at least one (probably more) that I didn’t. Of course, at least 25-27 of them are definitely the same for both of our tallies. Anyway, here are my results in each category:
Picture – initial 1st places: Roma 9, Green Book 7, The Favourite & Black Panther 4, BlacKkKlansman 3, Bohemian Rhapsody 1, Vice 1
Picture – preferential (meaning I counted the 2nd, 3rd and so forth picks of anybody who gave more than first place, for the movie with the lowest total 1st place votes in each round): Roma won over Green Book 10-9 (The Favourite gained the most ground, as in every other simulation I’ve seen so far, but was still eliminated in third place, with 7 votes to Green Book’s 9)
Director: Cuaron (Roma) 10, Lee (BlacKkKlansman) 7, Pawlikowski (Cold War) 5, McKay (Vice) 3, Lanthimos (The Favourite) 2
Actor: Bale 10, Malek 9, Mortensen 4, Cooper 3, Dafoe 1
Actress: Close 11, Colman 10, Aparicio & McCarthy 2, Gaga 1
Supporting Actor: Grant 13, Ali 9, Driver 5
Supporting Actress: King 19, Weisz 4, Adams & de Tavira 2, Stone 1
Original Screenplay: The Favourite 8, First Reformed 6, Green Book & Vice 4, Roma 3
Adapted Screenplay: If Beale Street Could Talk 10, BlacKkKlansman 8, Can You Ever Forgive Me 4, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 2, A Star is Born 1
Film Editing: Vice 5, The Favourite & Bohemian Rhapsody & BlacKkKlansman 1
Cinematography: The Favourite & Roma 2, Cold War & Never Look Away 1
Production Design: Roma & Black Panther & The Favourite 2 (but one voter said EITHER The Favourite OR Roma, so Roma is really ahead)
Original Score: BlacKkKlansman 5, Black Panther 4, If Beale Street Could Talk 3, Mary Poppins Returns 1
Original Song: Shallow (A Star is Born) 8, When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) 3, All the Stars (Black Panther) 1
Sound Editing: Roma & A Quiet Place 2, First Man 1 (but here too one voter said EITHER A Quiet Place OR Roma, so again Roma is ahead; both times I counted the vote for the movie behind first)
Sound Mixing: Roma & Bohemian Rhapsody 2, Black Panther 1
Visual Effects: First Man & Ready Player One & Christopher Robin 1
Costume Design: The Favourite & Black Panther & The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Makeup: Vice 5
Foreign Language Film: Roma 5, Cold War & Shoplifters 4, Capernaum 2
Animated: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 8, Incredibles 2 2, Isle of Dogs 1
Documentary: RBG 3, Free Solo 2, Minding the Gap 1
Live Action Short: Skin & Marguerite & Detainment 1
Animated Short: Weekends 1
Documentary Short: Lifeboat 2, End Game & Period. End of Sentence. & A Night at the Garden 1
***
So, for fun, here are the predictions in all categories, based exclusively on the anonymous ballots (my version, since it has more ballots, ties broken, where possible, by any extra votes found in kmavity’s version):
Picture: Roma
Director: Cuaron (Roma) – LOCK
Actor: Bale
Actress: Close
Supporting Actor: Grant – LOCK???
Supporting Actress: King – LOCK
Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Adapted Screenplay: If Beale Street Could Talk
Film Editing: Vice – LOCK
Cinematography: Roma OR The Favourite
Production Design: Roma
Costume Design: Black Panther
Original Score: BlacKkKlansman
Original Song: Shallow (A Star is Born) – LOCK
Sound Editing: Roma
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody OR Roma
Visual Effects: First Man
Makeup & Hairstyling: Vice – LOCK
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – LOCK
Documentary Feature: RBG
Live Action Short: Marguerite OR Detainment OR Skin 1
Animated Short: Weekends
Documentary Short: Lifeboat
I’ll be very curious to see how this ballot does with its predictions, in particular in the above-the-line categories, as there we have enough votes for it to perhaps be somewhat relevant.
Terrific work! Even hours before the show :DDD
However, my main problem with the anonymous ballots is not necessarily the small sample size, but the non-randomness of selection. Or a least we don’t know if the people are selected quasi-randomly or not. So whenever the NYT Article says all 20 of the people asked voted for Malek, it means something, because that tells something about the random subgroup of the people asked.
But THR and other publications, I fear, only present 2-3 ballots that they find interesting. So we’re no longer sampling from the original distribution.
It would’ve been interesting to analyze the accuracy of the previous years’ anonymous ballots, but it looks like I won’t even be able to finish my uni assignment before the show 😀
Well, I had planned on seeing some of the nominated films not seen yet (like At Eternity’s Gate or Shoplifters) tonight, before curiosity overtook me and I just had to do this thing. 🙂
“However, my main problem with the anonymous ballots is not necessarily the small sample size, but the non-randomness of selection.”
That definitely feels like it should be the main problem with these. 🙂
Don’t consider anybody a lock based on these.
I didn’t say I considered them locks. 🙂 I was just indicating that the margin by which they won suggests they might be locks.
I know but some people might do that.
🙂
Grant winning would be pure magic.
I think Ali will pull it off, in the end – he did have a lot of votes in these, too. But Grant could happen…
I avoid these anonymous ballots because they’re just getting my hopes up for nothing.
I only started looking at them at all WITH that in mind. 🙂 I expect whatever I’m rooting for that seems to be doing better here than expected to lose anyway.
Most important question: who comes out on top in the preferential ballot? I think it’s TF even though “Roma” has most no 1s.
Like I said, I tallied that as best I could (given that only maybe 40% of the polled voters gave #2, #3 picks, and so on, and Roma barely edged out Green Book, with The Favourite in third, by two points (distance to both Roma and Green Book, at the time of its elimination, in third). But yes, The Favourite benefited the most by far from the preferential. Will it be enough? Probably not, but it’d be cool if it was…
I could happily accept a win by The Favourite. If Roma wins I’m going to break my streak of owning every BP winner on DVD/Blu-Ray as I doubt they will ever put Roma on a physical medium. : (
:)) That’s a cool stat…
King’s dominance in SA is surprising. Every ballot I read said somebody different. Weird!
Yeah, the first ballots I looked at were mostly for other people. But not most of the next ones… 🙂
I am pretty sure that Stallone also got almost all votes in 2016
But I don’t think there were this many anonymous ballots around that year, right? I don’t think his lead was 15 or whatever it is for King this year. More like 6-7, tops. I could definitely be wrong, though – does anyone remember?
The writing’s on the wall…?
I guess I can say this now we’re at the end of the season, but something has been confusing me all season. I know he’s known for being a bit of an arsehole, but Sylvester Stallone got literal standing ovations at the Globes and other places.
Why throughout this season has Regina King, gifted and lauded TV star that she is, been touted as a real industry favourite – compared to THE Sylvester Stallone!? As someone from the UK (and huge cinephile) I must confess I didn’t know Regina by name and had seen her in only a few film roles. I was therefore surprised to see her meteoric rise in this category.
Why was it a given that she would have industry support whereas Stallone’s lack of industry support has been explained away in hindsight?
The same with the SAG ballots. Almost all of them had Bale winning.
Good luck tonight! My Money Ball has me out on a few limbs like BlacKKKlansman for Score and End Game (Thanks to Anne Thompson). With you having End Game as well that limb doesn’t feel as far. Sasha switched to Bohemian Rhapsody for Film Editing on Gold Derby about four hours ago which gave me a sigh of relief as I had a split between her and Tom O’Neil there. We’ll see.
Thanks! You too. I also have End Game in that category. I have Black Panther for score as a slight stats favorite. (With Mary Poppins Returns in second place, interestingly.) In editing I have The Favourite as ahead on stats, by a little bit, but my unofficial pick was BoRhap. Now I’d pick Vice, after seeing these.
My biggest limb will be Green Book for BP. The last four years I’ve played safe and when my pundits split I followed the majority. That didn’t work so well so this year going with the “upset.” Interesting that you are going Favourite for BP. My gut said based on stats and history that it should have been the front runner. I saw your post on your picks from a few days ago and have you plugged into the Big Ol’ Spreadsheet O’ Pundits. ; )
“Interesting that you are going Favourite for BP. My gut said based on stats and history that it should have been the front runner.”
Awesome! 🙂 Anyway, that’s my official prediction (and the one you should count), but I expect Roma to prevail in spite of that, like I said. Depending on what tie-breaking method one uses, Roma could be ahead on stats. (It’s not easy to make that be the case, but it can be done in a way that makes sense. It’s much harder to do it for Vice or Green Book, though it might still be possible. I don’t think it can be done for any of the others, while still correctly predicting every other winner in the 30 years – including this one – of the PGA era.) So The Favourite isn’t DEFINITELY the stats pick – it’s just the one my current system of interpretation (what I think is most logical right now, based on what’s happened so far in the PGA era) thinks is the stats favorite. If it loses, as I’m mostly expecting it to (I wouldn’t mind it too much, because there is too little real precedent for this year’s situation, and I find it normal for my system to have trouble picking a clear single favorite under those circumstances), I’ll have to re-evaluate my tie-breaking and elimination rule choices. Should be doable. (Depending on what wins, like I said.) But, anyway, of course I think The Favourite has real chances. 🙂 There are stats-free arguments to be made for it. (Though almost any argument can be transformed into a stat, if one puts in the work and the logic is sound.) Like how well it’s doing in all of the preferential simulations and how close it was in the anonymous votes tally above, the 7 BAFTA wins, the strength for screenplay, the strength in acting, the possible editing win, the vulnerability of the front runner(s), etc. – I don’t mind predicting it. As long as it wins screenplay and two other awards, I’ll not regret it, even if it loses. I’ll assume it was probably quite close. If it loses screenplay, I’ll have to assume the opposite.
I was interested to see you are looking at Gold Derby pundit stats as a new input into your model. My view is that these people do what you do (most no where near at your level of data dive) and take into account many of the same factors. I let others do the research and then I glean their leavings. you can be sure I will be looking closely at the upsets you win tonight. I’m just sorry I don’t have 10-12-15 years of data on your predicts like I do my stable. But I am now closely monitoring some newer people — like you — to see how they do over time. That’s the secret. Finding someone who can get Best Director a few years is great but someone like Tapley has a perfect record over 15 years. Thompson has 12/13 in Score as another example. (Stone and Nathaniel Rogers have 13/15 years in Score. They both say Black Panther in Score.) I tipped to Thompson based on higher percentage even if fewer years of data.
Who has the best record in Picture and the acting categories?
Of the 10 I track over the past 15 years who have best overall records:
Awards Daily Most Likely 11/15 (They act like a poll in a political race)
** The downside is they have missed the last three years because this tends to get the consensus and close splits versus the upsets we’ve generally seen.
Thelma Adams 11/15
Feinberg/O’Neil/Karger/Nat. Rogers/Thompson 10/15
In acting:
Best Actor: Feinberg/Hammond/Rogers 14/15
Best Actress: O’Neil/Rogers 14/15
S. Actor: O’Neil 14/15
S. Actress: Tapley 15/15
In Original Screenplay I’ve started watching Scott Mantz who has 6/6. He says The Favourite so even though some others I track have great records like Feinberg 13/15, he got the upsets in 2015 and 2013 (Presentation yer not film year) so I lean towards more recent streaks when it conflicts with overall wins.
15/15, wow! That’s an impressive stat.
Indeed. Tapley has the best performance out of nearly every pundit out there with 17.93 correct over 15 years.
I know – Tapley’s a beast! 🙂
Ugh, that makes me nervous about Green Book… :/
I know. But I’m just as nervous bucking the trend but then Three Billboards, La La Land, The Revenant all lured me in along with the vast majority so….
Yeah, but you have to figure they’ll be right eventually – the majority. 🙂 It’d be a bit weird, statistically, if they weren’t, sooner rather than later. I’m thinking that’s this year.
Which means with my luck THIS will be the year the Consensus gets back on track being right.
🙂 Exactly. Although, like I said, I’m heavily rooting for your luck to not quite be that bad…
Many thanks. Ditto your luck because I happily will co-opt your picks in my selections each year.
I’m not lucky enough for The Favourite to actually win. 🙂 You can bank on that. I’d just like to see something other than Roma (or Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther, since those would be very bad for my stats) win. I can’t imagine it’ll actually be The Favourite…
And, in fact, I do expect it will just be Roma. I mean, it’s just SO easy for them to vote for that, given how split the support is for everything else. There’s no clear, lone challenger (although some people think that’s Green Book – I think if it’s anything, it’s The Favourite), and that’s usually a bad sign – meaning the front runner wins.
Yeah. You’re probably right. I’m dying on my “stats” model hill myself. Intellectually for all the reasons you’ve outlined I can see why not.
The clear lone challenger WAS Green Book, it turns out. 🙂 I was underestimating it. (Not statistically, at least not according to the not-yet-updated version of my system, but logically, intuitively.) Well done to you for picking it!
Well done to you for picking Best Actress
Thanks! Did I get anything else the pundit consensus missed? (Was First Man their #1 for effects, or was it Infinity War?)
Oh, and: how did you do vs. Tapley?
I hate it when the boring pick (the one picked by most major precursors) wins, especially in stats-unclear races. Like Argo (HATED that year, and the Argo sweep after the directing snub), The Shape of Water, etc. 12 Years a Slave and Birdman at least I really liked. But I much prefer it when a Moonlight or Spotlight or Crash-type outcome happens. Even if it means I have to rethink my interpretation of the stats a little. (A learning process I don’t mind.) Never more than a little, though, as all of those were profoundly stats-valid, even if, for the first two, I wasn’t able to call them in a close race, from a stats perspective. Those pesky tie-breakers… 🙂
I on the other hand like when at least MY picks are “boring” (right). I, too adjust my model. It helps me break ties so that I can have clear “experts” for each category. I definitely could use one for Best Picture.
Feels like it is, anyway… (The Revenant didn’t feel like it would win, I don’t remember having any strong feelings about La La Land, either way, and Three Billboards did feel marginally like it would win, but it was SO close for me between that and Shape, intuitively. I’ve never been more torn, not even this year. This year it feels like Roma will win, mostly.)
Feels like there’s just too much going against the others, both statistically and logically speaking, so they’ll just default to the consensus pick so far. Boringly. I’d love to be wrong.
I always find a flocking mentality each year on certain categories. The trick is finding the leaders first. This year it is Boho for Editing, Panther for Costumes and Period for Doc Short. I suspect I’m not the only one who watches certain people and once a few start to herd towards a pick it sets of a mini-stampede. And then you get people like Sasha who WILL make last minute switches AFTER I’ve submitted my picks for contests. lol.
Yeah, it’s really weird how they influence each other every year, and most of them end up with the same prediction – in several categories. And in most of them they’re not right nearly as much as that consensus would suggest they should be, right? (I’m asking you because that’s the impression I’ve gotten about their near-unanimous predictions, but I’ve never studied it closely, to have actual numbers to back it up – so it could just be totally off.)
“And in most of them they’re not right nearly as much as that consensus would suggest they should be, right?”
Not sure I understand. Can you re-state please? Sorry!
There are years when there are absolute surprises. My model tends to weed out the herding unless it gets stampeded in the direction of my experts. Like Boho for Film Editing which hardly anyone else had and now enough are picking it that it is a classic split decision category year. Those help me fine tune the “best” in a category.
Meaning, given that, say, in some categories, like picture this year, 90% of them are predicting the same thing, they should be right about 90% of the time when they go for something in such numbers. Yet they’re not, not even close, in my only semi-informed opinion. They’re definitely not in Best Picture. They were like that for 3L & The Revenant, and got those wrong. I imagine there are other categories where that happens to them.
Ahh. Got it. Yes, but really such a small sample size, yeah? I don’t recall enough of my stats to explain. Again, like the 2016 election. 538 had something like 80% Clinton but that meant in 20% of the scenarios Trump could/did win. In our case the 20% is happening more often than the 80% the last 3-4 years. Something has changed or we’ve had 4 freakish individual races the last few years. We have to find the permanent “flips” like VA going from safe R to safe D. What are the stats not capturing in the AMPAS “electorate” recently?
I’m not sure there’s anything the stats aren’t capturing. Clearly, the patterns haven’t changed so much, since Green Book won. A typical winner if there ever was one (another King’s Speech, Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, etc.), not a Netflix or foreign film, a PGA winner, a Globe winner – the one thing the system might have a little flaw on is the SAG Ensemble stat. (AFTRA might have radically weakened the strength of that stat, it seems, but I don’t think there’s enough evidence of that yet, given how weak the movies NOT snubbed for SAG were both last year and this year – it might just be normal variance -, so I’m not changing anything there yet. Nor is it required, in order to retroactively get Green Book and everything else before it right, so hopefully that means it’s ACTUALLY not required.) The only reason it’s been harder to get BP right is that these were highly unconventional races (which one used to see once or twice a decade, not 3-4 years in a row) where situations not previously arisen during the period I base my system on – situations based on WGA ineligibilities for contenders not clearly ahead on points, not clearly behind on points, but very close to or in a tie for first, like Three Billboards and The Favourite, situations with movies winning the PGA and doing as well as the front runners, or better, on key nominations, but with very low total nomination counts (which almost never win), like The Big Short or Green Book, and situations with all movies facing one or more elimination rules (normally unbeatable stats that derail even the strongest of contenders, when at least one movie is facing no such stats), instead of just some of them. A lot of these setups are almost unprecedented, so my system had’t had close enough precedents yet from which to learn how to deal with such cases. Which is why the lessons drawn from, in particular, last year and this year, should, if my system and its logical foundation are any good at predicting Best Picture anymore, be tremendously useful for future races of all kinds (see, also, my recent, bigger post about the specific updates to the system)!
(Apologies if this posts again). Tapley is indeed impressive. His overall average over 15 years is 17.93, the top of any pundit I’ve come across. The others for those interested:
Awards Daily Most Likely: 17.60 15 years
Tom O’Neil 17.31 15 years
Pete Hammond 17.31 15 years
Scott Feinberg 17.27 13 years
Anne Thompson 17.08 13 years
Gregory Ellwood 16.83 12 years
Nathaniel Rogers 16.8 15 years
Karger 16.42 12 years
Sasha Stone 16.33 15 years
Scott Mantz has an average of 19 for 6 years of predictions. He’s one to watch.
Pete Hammond, you mean. 🙂
I do that ALL the time. I had a high school teacher named Tom Hammond. Thanks. Will fix. lol
🙂 Good old Pete “Three Votes” Hammond…
I’m not sure if you track her or not, but isn’t Joyce Eng often among the best overall? I had the impression that she was the most reliable at GoldDerby.
I have started tracking her. I compiled her stats this year for as far back as I can find them which is only four years. She is in the minor leagues building up her overall record. ; ) She is someone I am definitely watching. She has an average of 17.75 average for her four years.
Thelma has Roma this year too, right? I don’t remember.
Yes she does. Tapley, Hammond, Mantz and Stone with Green Book versus O’Neil, Feinberg, Thompson, Adams, AD Most Likely and Howell for Roma. Matt Atchity got the last two BP winners correct in non-consensus years. But no word from him this year. I went with those who picked the upsets like Moonlight, Shape of Water and to some degree Spotlight and 12 Years. Those listed had 2/4 of those at best.
Atchity is predicting Roma (on Christy Lemire’s podcast).
Thanks! And… shoot…. he was going to break my pundits tie. Sigh. Oh well I didn’t want to win any of those Oscar pools anyway. lol.
“I went with those who picked the upsets like Moonlight, Shape of Water and to some degree Spotlight and 12 Years. Those listed had 2/4 of those at best.”
Makes sense. Seems like that kind of year… (Although I personally don’t think Green Book will win, and it’s almost definitely not the stats favorite, either, unless you really try hard and bend your interpretation seriously, to make it so.)
Damn, they have me beat for those years! 🙂 I’ve not done well picking the right movie when two are really close in the race. (Somewhat logically, as stats are best at predicting what CAN’T win – usually 75-80% of the contenders, though not this year -, but when it gets close, it gets tricky if you’re using only stats.)
Yeah. I compare it to political campaigns, especially the presidential race. Moonlight was Trump (Hold on…) Everyone thought La La Land a shoo in like Clinton and per the polling/stats it should have been the case. 538 caught the under toe of things that could go wrong. In her case the three safe Blue states had a higher rate of third party protest voting. (I hope they learn that lesson in safe states in 2020)
That didn’t happen in the swing states because people learned from Nader. Very little polling was done for $$ sake there because they’d always been safe so why bother polling? And people missed the current of people pushing back against the inevitable Clinton tone. Same with Moonlight to a certain degree. I am thinking that may be the case here this year, too. Who knows?
Your stats model is much like how a president is picked with festivals = early straw polls, critics/pundits = the invisible primary of dollars and support to signal the worthies, the Guild Awards = primary/caucus elections and then the branches equaling the Electoral College to guess who has support where.
Great analogy! 🙂
I wonder if Tapley will break his record this year… He did predict Stallone in 2015.
He has some categories he is good in and others …not so much.
“My view is that these people do what you do (most no where near at your level of data dive) and take into account many of the same factors.”
I agree. 🙂 They used to be more averse to stats (like, before Gravity, The Revenant or La La Land lost), but they’ve learned. The hard way. (I think before they were a bit lucky that there weren’t any truly unclear races for a really long time, and perhaps they didn’t NEED the stats to mostly get it right.) They keep them in mind most of the time, these days. They’ve become more relevant in that sense, as far as I’m concerned. I could use their aggregated predictions, I agree. As an extra precursor. If Roma wins, that will certainly look like it would be a very useful addition. But, of course, I’d prefer to keep it within the realms of industry precursor stats, if at all possible, since it’s so nice and tidy and logical. 🙂 If that method fails for good at some point, I’ll see what other stats (whether based on non-industry precursors or pundit predictions or both) could be added to improve the performance. I acknowledge that I’m probably being a bit stubborn in not having done that already… But I’m still hoping to find that magical formula based on industry precursor and Oscar nomination stats only. Or the closest equivalent, at the very least…
“Finding someone who can get Best Director a few years is great but someone like Tapley has a perfect record over 15 years. Thompson has 12/13 in score as another example.”
I was actually discussing that with my friend Julie the other day. 🙂 I can’t think of a BD prediction I got wrong, since I’ve been predicting that category. I had Ang Lee (stats, of course) in the year of Argo (I even made some money online on that) – most had Spielberg -, and the others were very easy to call, Hooper included. If you use stats, that category is pretty trivial. Definitely the easiest one to call. If you go off on tangents and start predicting upsets (like Lee this year, which I’m confident won’t happen – watch me be wrong now!), you’re maybe going to get one in five wrong, but ruin your percentage. The problem is I don’t remember when I started predicting it. (Might be precisely the Hooper year, might be the Bigelow year.) I was all about BP for a very long time. Contests are the only reason I got into predicting any of the other categories at all. (Well, that and seeing more and more movies per year.)
I definitely would have gotten Soderbergh wrong for BD (2001), had I been predicting. I think that was just an anti-stats outcome. Likewise, Polanski (2003). But, after that, I can’t imagine what I could have missed, or why. So I’d probably have the 15/15 too. 🙂 Well, the stats would, of course, in reality…
I have 15/15 for BD too because of my “stats” model. I never argue with Tapley on that one. He’s led me wrong in recent years with some other categories. If I were lazy i can always count on Tapley to at least beat the general consensus by 1-2 but now I am determined to beat him. I have 17.73 for 15 years to his 17.93. We differ by only 3 picks in 15 years. sigh.
“I have 17.63 for 15 years to his 17.83. We differ by only 3 picks in 15 years. sigh.”
Very nice! 🙂 I hope you overtake him this year!…
From your lips to God’s ears. 😉 I’d have to run the math to see by how many I’d have to beat him by for my average to exceed his. I tied him last year and beat him the two years prior. And I typed that initially from memory. I corrected it. I’m looking very sloppy this evening… I blame that on doing this while I cook without my glasses on.
I say goo for the most obvious if you are not sure on tech categories. “Vice” is the most obvious Editing. “Roma” is the most obvious cinematography and I fee that the shiniest film seems to win that category. Sound is usually won by the loudest film but I am not sure which film that is this year. BR seems safest but FM could upset.
You’re probably right. 🙂 I should definitely switch my unofficial (and contest entry) to Vice, but I’m too lazy… At least I’ll know I had the right idea if I get it wrong because I didn’t switch, so I won’t mind it too much.
The million-dollar question is whether it will be a surprising year or a predictable one. I think 2016 with La La Land seemed like a locked year but had several upsets, particularly Best Picture and in the tech categories where La La Land lost (i.e., editing, both sounds, even costumes). Sometimes the up-in-the-air years become predictable, and if Roma, Malek, King, and even the Favourite script win tonight, it will be several consensus choices prevailing. Sometimes even harder than guessing the upsets is predicting how many upsets there will be.
What I’m really hoping for is a fucking tie. Doesn’t matter which category, but best supporting actress would be the shit.
I think the last tie was in 2012 in the Sound Editing category. I would love a tie between BR and A Quiet Place.
Predictions
Picture- Green Book (Roma)
Directing- Roma (BlacKkKlansman)
Original- Green Book (The Favourite)
Adapted- BlacKkKlansman (Can You Ever Forgive Me)
Actor- Rami Malek (Bradley Cooper)
Actress- Glenn Close (Olivia Colman)
SActor- Mahershala Ali (Richard E. Grant)
SActress- Regina King (Rachel Weisz)
Foreign- Roma (Cold War)
Animated- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (The Incredibles 2)
Documentary- Hale County This Morning, This Evening (Minding the Gap)
AnimShort- Bao (Weekends)
LiveShort- Skin (Marguerite)
DocShort- Lifeboat (End Game)
Cinematography- Roma (Cold War)
Editing- Vice (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Costume Design- Black Panther (The Favourite)
ProductionDesign- Black Panther ( The Favourite)
Score- BlacKkKlansman (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Song- Shallow (I’ll Fight)
Sound Mixing- Bohemian Rhapsody (First Man)
Sound Editing- First Man (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Visual Effects- Avengers: Infinity War (First Man)
Makeup- Vice (Mary Queen of Scots)
What country are you watching the Oscars from? Romania here.
New Zealand here!
Go Highlanders!
Ugh no. You are objectively wrong. I’m evenly split between Chiefs and Crusaders. Anything else is the wrong choice of team.
Turkey here
Germany
By the way I’m watching it on Pro Sieben.
Yeah, me too. The Red Carpet live starts around 12 am here so in your country must be around 2 am.
Ich werde kein Star sein. Ich werde eine Legende sein!
Ich Liebe Green Book
UK! Got Sky Cinema for this very reason…. no more shaky streams.
Sweden here
For the first time ever, the United Kingdom!
Ah, so you’ve moved there… Yeah, the username suggested a different nationality, that’s why I was surprised before when you mentioned it. Still really cool. 🙂
Really? What nationality does my username suggest? I’m genuinely curious, as I don’t think it’s in any way connected to it. Although it could be, subconsciously…
Probably a Latin one.
Yup, a Latin one, indeed. 🙂 Spanish, South American, something like that.
Almost! I’m originally Hungarian. So we’re kind of neighbours!
Very interesting… Your username still sounds Spanish. 🙂 (It definitely doesn’t sound very Hungarian. I’d be surprised if you told me there was even a single person with that name in the whole of Hungary…)
Yeah, well it’s not my name 🙂 I made this username up when I was 6 I think. It doesn’t mean anything, but I’ve been using it almost everywhere ever since.
Awesome! 🙂
Romanian is a Latin language, so we pick up on that immediately. 🙂
You know the answer in my case, of course – same as you. 🙂
Pe ce le vezi? Cred ca Digi24 le difuzeaza si anul asta. Eu de obicei ma uit pe Pro Sieben.
A, chiar, poate tu stii: anul trecut au fost cu vreun comentariu in romana sau dublate sau ceva, pe Digi24? Am citit ca, acum cativa ani, cel putin, ar fi fost cu sunet original. Dar nu stiu daca ei inteleg acelasi lucru prin asta pe care il inteleg eu… (Evident, as prefera sa fie fara nici un fel de comentariu sau traducere.)
Nu stiam ca sunt si pe ProSieben. Foarte tare! Nici nu stiu daca am ProSieben in grila, la UPC. Digi24 am sigur. 🙂 Am verificat.
Eu pana acum m-am uitat aproape in fiecare an pe net. (Stiu ca erau pe HBO, acum multi ani. Nu cred ca mai sunt demult.) In general a fost O.K. cu linkurile, dar un Digi24 pe Horizon Go m-ar face sa ma simt mult mai in siguranta, mai ales ca sezonul asta linkurile au mers in general mai prost decat in anii trecuti, la toate ceremoniile, etc.
[Sorry about the non-English, guys! It’s just a discussion about our Oscar-viewing options here in Romania, nothing more interesting than that. :)]
Si eu tot UPC am, Pro Sieben ar trebui sa fie pe 733 (daca nu ai sortat/editat canalele). Anul trecut am tot schimbat intre Pro7 si Digi si pe amandoua era cu sunetul original (fara traducere sau comentarii). Doar pe Pro7 covorul rosu e in germana normal.
Superb!… Multumesc frumos, si vizionare placuta! 🙂
Athens, Greece
Brazil here.
Well, I usually bake something chocolate to nom on during the night–not sure what it’s going to be yet–and pizza’s good, although I can’t just order out due to the whole celiac business. (As I remind people, I avoid wheat, rye, and barley because I HAVE to; if I didn’t have to, there’s no way I’d deprive myself of so much! Did you know soy sauce usually has wheat in it, for God’s sake?) Debating whether or not to haul my butt out in the rain to buy some yarn for knitting, or figure something out w/what I have. Decisions, decisions…
NPR’s music critic has a different opinion about Original Song. https://www.npr.org/2019/02/23/697103948/the-2019-oscars-best-original-song-nominees-cruelly-ranked
I am simply hoping to watch the Oscars. We have high winds and bad weather projected through tomorrow. We’ve already had our power off for an hour, though it’s back now.
I wish I could see Amy Adams winning as well as First Man in as many categories as possible. But I probably won’t.
This year I overthought, even by my standards, and probably changed too much at the last minute. There are nine categories I have checkmarked as “who knows?”
Wow, that would be frustrating – not being able to see the ceremony because of a power outage… Thankfully, the weather here is calm. I hope it will be O.K. over there, too, in the end!
I probably SHOULD make some changes (like Vice in editing), given the anonymous ballots tally I’ve just done, but I want to enjoy these last few hours before the big one, not fret over ultimately not terribly important things like predictions. 🙂
(I only looked at the anonymous ballots because I was very curious, and wanted to see how a predictions ballot formed via those alone would do at the Oscars. Better than me, better than the stats perhaps, better than Gold Derby?!… It took a while, but it was fun.)
I am strangely dispirited for the # of awards I got wrong. The BP wins have really taken the wind out of my sails.
In my case, it’s strange how LITTLE I’m disappointed with my (otherwise pretty terrible) score of 16/24. 🙂 (17/24 in the contest, where I went with Bao. And, let’s face it, no matter how many changes I would have made, I never would have beaten or matched the guy who went 22/24…) It’s probably because it’s that low mostly owing to the shorts and a single other thing – their refusal to acknowledge The Favourite’s achievements. And all of those in ultra-close and unclear categories, stats-wise. So, unlike in other years where I got a score lower than I would have liked, I don’t feel like I made any serious mistakes (except in screenplay, which I think I mentioned in one of my longer comments, and maaaybe picture), either logically (for my unofficial predictions) or from the point of view of the analysis (for my official ones), really, or like the stats let me down anywhere. Except in the shorts, but those I already knew were iffy stats at best – I even said as much – and I didn’t trust them too much because of it…
And yeah, the Black Panther love is baffling… Not that unexpected, but difficult to understand.
We have high winds too! Praying for my power to stay on!
We’re in luck. Our power never went off.
After getting some encouragement from Ryan, I am reposting this here. It’s my annual “Art’s Art Awards” for 2018. All of my favorite achievements in cinema for 2018. The only qualifications are U.S. release date in 2018, and that I’ve actually seen each film. (Note: I make no distinctions between shorts and features, and I combined the sound categories, and added ensemble). I thought it was a great year for cinema, just not a great year for the Oscars.
PICTURE
1. **Burning**
2. Minding The Gap
3. First Reformed
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Annihilation
6. Eighth Grade
7. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
8. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
9. Blindspotting
10. The Rider
DIRECTOR
1. **Lee Chang-dong, Burning**
2. Paul Schrader, First Reformed
3. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
4. Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here
5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
ENSEMBLE
1. **Hereditary**
2. Shoplifters
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Burning
5. The Death of Stalin
ACTRESS
1. **Toni Collette, Hereditary**
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
4. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
5. Eva Melander, Border
ACTOR
1. **Ethan Hawke, First Reformed**
2. Tom Cruise, Mission: Impossible – Fallout
3. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
5. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. **Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk**
2. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
3. Sakura Ando, Shoplifters
4. Ann Dowd, Hereditary
5. Claire Foy, First Man
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. **Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?**
2. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Alex Wolff, Hereditary
4. Rafael Casal, Blindspotting
5. Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. **First Reformed**
2. Eighth Grade
3. Blindspotting
4. Sorry To Bother You
5. The Favourite
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. **If Beale Street Could Talk**
2. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
3. Burning
4. Annihilation
5. Leave No Trace
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
1. **Burning**
2. Shoplifters
3. Cold War
4. Roma
5. Zama
DOCUMENTARY
1. **Minding The Gap**
2. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
3. Of Fathers And Sons
4. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
5. End Game
ANIMATED
1. **Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse**
2. Isle of Dogs
3. One Small Step
4. Late Afternoon
5. Bao
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. **If Beale Street Could Talk**
2. The Rider
3. Mandy
4. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
5. Roma
EDITING
1. **Minding The Gap**
2. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
3. You Were Never Really Here
4. Blindspotting
5. Hale County This Morning, This Evening
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. **Hereditary**
2. Roma
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Black Panther
5. Mandy
COSTUME DESIGN
1. **If Beale Street Could Talk**
2. Black Panther
3. The Favourite
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. BlackKklansman
MAKEUP & HAIR
1. **Border**
2. Vice
3. Black Panther
4. Mandy
5. The Favourite
ORIGINAL SCORE
1. **If Beale Street Could Talk**
2. Mandy
3. Annihilation
4. First Man
5. Black Panther
ORIGINAL SONG
1. **Revelation, Boy Erased**
2. Black Eyes, A Star Is Born
3. When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
4. The Place Where Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns
5. Maybe It’s Time, A Star Is Born
SOUND (Mixing & Editing)
1. **Roma**
2. A Quiet Place
3. Annihilation
4. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
5. First Man
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. **Annihilation**
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. First Man
4. Mandy
5. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
My predictions
Picture: Black Panther
Director: the favourite
Actor: rami malek
Actress: Glenn close
Supporting actor: Adam driver > mahershala ali> Richard e grant
Supporting actress: regina king > marina de tivra
Original Screenplay: green book > vice
Adapted screenplay: blackkklansman
Foreign film: Roma > shoplifters
Documentary short subject: period. End of sentence
Live action short film: magurite> detainment
Animated short film: animal behavior
Documentary feature: free solo
Cinematography: Roma
Film editing: bohemian Rhapsody
Sound mix: bohemian rhapsody
Sound editing: bohemian Rhapsody
Animated feature: Spider-Man into the spiderverse > isle of dogs
Visual effects: ready player one
Production design: black panther
Costume design: black panther
Make up: Vice
Original score: Ludwig grenason: black panther
Original song: the shallow from a Star is born
Legendary actress Glenn will win her first Oscar. What an amazing and exciting night.
For good fun, my wish is for A Star is Born to turn it all around and sweep after all, as it has been predicted in October. And I don’t even like that movie one bit.
One of the rare times I’ve seen all BP nominees. Were I a voter I’d go with Blackklansman
It feels like a great day to make history.
Are the awards presented in the same order as last year?
Jazz will be in the press room within the next couple of hours, and she’ll tip us off about the order of awards. We’ll post as soon as we know.
Really appreciate that information btw 🙂
Thanks.
It’s Oscar Sunday! Sunday! SUNDAY!
I will celebrate by eating a doughnut.
Last night, I also watched that Danish movie Border, which was nominated for Best Makeup.
What a weird movie! But I kind of liked it because weird is better than the same-old sequels & reboots.
Do we really need another Fast & Furious movie? I don’t think we need another Frozen movie either.
I hope everybody’s Oscar wishes come true! Even though that’s never going to happen!
Anyone got a link that can be live streamed easily worldwide? Will be on mobile so might just watch it while traveling.
Last minute wishes: Bohemian Rhapsody goes 0-5. Can You Ever Forgive Me? goes 3-3. Vice wins multiple awards. A Quiet Place wins Sound Editing.
I would like First Man to win something so we can hear the orchestra presumably play The Landing.
would love Can You Ever Forgive Me to win 1-3 Oscars.
Would not be mad to see Black Panther win costume, prod design, score, picture.
Would love to see Rachel Weisz win.
Oh and Bradley Cooper should be winning Best Actor !!
Oh and Bradley Cooper should be winning Best Actor !!
I want to see First Man and Rachel Weisz win as well. The Landing should be playing after they announce the winner for Original Score BECAUSE IT SHOULD HAVE WON IT!!!
With your first point I would love that but also I don’t want it to happen because it’ll make me so sad to be reminded of what the academy passed over!
I’m almost 100% sure they would play ‘Quarantine’. Similar of course, but I don’t think they’d bring out the brass madness in the middle of kissing and hugging.
“I would like First Man to win something so we can hear the orchestra presumably play The Landing.”
SO this – best wish I’ve seen so far! Hearing that during the Oscars would make them so memorable…
Any news on the order of awards yet?
My personal secret wishes would be
Black Panther become the biggest Surprise / Miracle and making history, including BP.
And after all these years , its 10 years anniversary, at least one Marvel Movie can take home Best Visual Effects. Since Marvel Movies rely on heavy VFX (it’s highly necessary) to bring comic world on big screen. And its about time to recognize all these efforts the past 10 years, and they help HOLLYWOOD making money to keep the business alive and prosper 😀
Last minute wishes?
– I want Ready Player One to win Visual Effects, Weekends to win animated shorts, Spike Lee to win something, Black Panther to win Production design and Costumes
A recipe for last minute snack? This one is a crowd favorite and very simple to make. Hot Pakoras from south India. Here is the recipe,
1. Mix by hand 1 cup Besan (chick pea flour), 1/4 cup rice flour, 1 tsp Ajwain (carom seeds) coarsely ground, 1/2 tsp baking soda (optional but better) and salt to taste (1/2 tsp is what I used).
2. Once dry ingredients are mixed thoroughly, add 3/4 cup water and mix well. It should become a pancake batter consistency with no lumps. Let it sit for 15 mins.
3. While waiting, slice 1/2 med sized onion into strands, 1 carrot into thin circles (as thin as you can, you can use a mandolin), 6 green chillies (I used jalapeños sliced in half length wise…I like it spicy).
4. Heat oil in a deep frying pan. Oil should be at least 1.5 inches deep. The oil is ready when temperature is approx 375F (or when you drop a tiny amount of batter and it immediately rises to the top). But not so hot that it is smoking (reduce heat if it is smoking).
5. First dip chillies in the batter and fry them, then carrots and finally onions
6. As the items come out of the frying pan, place them in a dish lined with paper towel and season them with a spice rub of your choice. The spice rub I use is 1/2tsp dry mango powder, 1/2 tsp salt and 1 tsp low-heat chili powder.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/456e09c538d3a25e91ae954d9fcd7d3266dc8a29a27998f5e3f99ecc53abdfc0.jpg
My deepest hope and wish is to see either COLD WAR or NEVER LOOK AWAY (the latter is actually a 2019 film for all our list-making purposes as it is the only film of the five nominees in that category that opened theatrically after the 1st of the year, in mid January) surprise in Best Foreign Film. CAPERNAUM would also make a magnificent choice, though like most I also love ROMA and THE SHOPLIFTERS. In any case I consider Pawlikoswki and Von Donnarsmarck’s films staggering masterpieces. I’d love either the aforementioned COLD WAR or NEVER LOOK AWAY to surprise for Best Cinematography as well, the latter was lensed by Caleb Deschanel. Though Alfonso Cuaron is a lock for Best Director and is most deserving I am rooting for an uspet by Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) or Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
In the category of Best Lead Actor, I have no problem at all with the terrific Rami Malek, whose performance I prefer to Christian Bale’s but my favorite in that category is Willem Dafoe’s as Van Gogh in AT ETERNITY’S GATE. Though “Shallow” is the lock of the night for “A Star is Born” I can fantasize about the win going to the year’s most beautiful song, “Where the Lost Things Go” from MARY POPPINS RETURNS. And then there is Richard Grant, who would delight many if he were prevail for his brilliant work in “Can You Forgive Me?” though certainly Mahershala Ali, the favorite was deserving as well in “Green Book.” Glenn Close will almost certainly win, but aside from the career narrative she gave what I think was the best performance of the five nominees. I do want Regina King to win (If Beale Street Can Talk) and am pretty sure she will. Finally I am rooting for “Minding the Gap” (runner up Hale County Before and After) to upset for Best Documentary, which will in the end probably go to Free Solo or RBG.
Excellent thoughts samjuliano! I’m seeing Never Look Away this week so cannot fully comment on the FF race, but I would certainly love to see something other than Roma win there because (a) I do not rate Roma as highly as others do, (b) I loved both Shoplifters and Capernaum and they would be worthy winners (I had mixed feelings about Cold War myself, and (c) I just don’t think the same film should win both BP and FF — the wealth should be shared.
I’m strangely unpassionate about most of the major categories this year. I don’t desperately want anyone to win, except Richard E Grant . Ali was indeed very fine in GB but Grant was outstanding, and deserves first time recognition more than Ali deserves a repeat recognition. Among Supporting Actresses I’d like Rachel Weisz, but I don’t care that much. In the lead acting races, I am not really rooting for anyone, except that I am rooting against Christian Bale, who I thought was overrated and average in Vice. Even in Picture I don’t feel too strongly, but I’d put The Favourite as #1 if I were voting. I wish Beale Street were in the mix.
Excellent thoughts samjuliano! I’m seeing Never Look Away this week so cannot fully comment on the FF race, but I would certainly love to see something other than Roma win there because (a) I do not rate Roma as highly as others do, (b) I loved both Shoplifters and Capernaum and they would be worthy winners (I had mixed feelings about Cold War myself, and (c) I just don’t think the same film should win both BP and FF — the wealth should be shared.
I’m strangely unpassionate about most of the major categories this year. I don’t desperately want anyone to win, except Richard E Grant . Ali was indeed very fine in GB but Grant was outstanding, and deserves first time recognition more than Ali deserves a repeat recognition. Among Supporting Actresses I’d like Rachel Weisz, but I don’t care that much. In the lead acting races, I am not really rooting for anyone, except that I am rooting against Christian Bale, who I thought was overrated and average in Vice. Even in Picture I don’t feel too strongly, but I’d put The Favourite as #1 if I were voting. I wish Beale Street were in the mix.
Foreign Language Film this year is the BEST in long years! The fact that a film like Burning missed the cut speaks the abundance of quality and greatness in this particular race. Not to mention unselected films or delayed releases.
I’d say the fact that a film like ‘Burning’ missed the cut speaks to the likelihood that the Academy Foreign Language voting committees, in the end, despite their generosity in shortlisting Lee’s film, mostly found it impenetrable and unsatisfying.
Though ‘Roma’ is wonderful, I desperately hope that ‘Capernaum’ and ‘Shoplifters’ (which I think are superior) could tie in a total freak upset.
Agreed! I really wish Burning had been nominated and won! But it’s a very good group this year.
I would love for Beale Street to win all of its awards. Here’s a quick recipe for a cold, unique spinach dip that you could probably say is “green book” themed if that is your wish.
Ingredients:
1 can or 1 frozen brick or 2 bags fresh Spinach (chopped)
16 oz Sour Cream
4oz (or whatever size is available) Goat Cheese
1 heaping tablespoon Mayonnaise
2-4 fresh garlic cloves, minced
Dill
Olive Oil
Vinegar (dealer’s choice)
Black Pepper
Salt (omit if using canned spinach)
Directions:
Sauté spinach on medium with a healthy drizzle of olive oil, a splash of vinegar, a generous amount of black pepper, and a pinch or two of salt. Cook until spinach is heated through (and wilted if using fresh) and there is no extra liquid in pan. Remove from heat.
Put goat cheese in a large bowl. Add spinach and stir until the two are combined. (The goat cheese will be stiff at first, but the hot spinach and the stirring will loosen it up).
Add the sour cream, raw garlic, mayonnaise, and a good amount of dill (I usually sprinkle on enough to lightly cover the top of the bowl.
Mix all ingredients together then transfer into serving bowl or Tupperware, cover and refrigerate for at least an hour to let the flavors meld (the longer the better).