The Toronto Film Festival has just about given its last gasp, though not quite. The People’s Choice Award will be announced on the 15th. This year, like almost every year, Best Actor is packed.
From Venice/Telluride/Toronto:
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
From earlier in the year:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The Report
Coming soon:
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
George MacKay, 1917
Both Adam Driver and Adam Sandler have secured their place in the lineup at both Telluride and Toronto. They join a jam-packed field with way too many contenders. Every day, someone pops up with a new “so-and-so COULD WIN THIS YEAR” article. That is less so for the actresses (which we will do next), but Best Actor feels so wide open at the moment because there hasn’t been a Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour yet, i.e., those unequivocal Oscar turns that can’t be denied because of the transformation the actor has undergone. We don’t have one of those this year. Instead, it appears we have a lot of actors playing roughly their own age.
The most transformational performances I’ve seen would be Jonathan Pryce, who becomes and embodies Pope Francis, and Edward Norton, who manifests Tourette’s Syndrome (which works better for some than for others) in Motherless Brooklyn. Leonardo DiCaprio could be seen as someone who transforms himself in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, with an accent and all. But has anyone gained 50 pounds or lost 50 pounds? Has anyone become unrecognizable with makeup? Well, maybe one has. Maybe Joaquin Phoenix as the Joker has transformed himself the most. So does that make him the frontrunner? Not necessarily.
As we wait for this year’s inevitable shitstorm to rain down, we can see pretty well set our clocks by one of the truisms of the Oscar race: Best Actor is married to Best Picture, especially in the era of the expanded ballot. To date, Jeff Bridges is still the only Best Actor winner without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. Best Actor nominations always tend to be linked more frequently with Best Picture for nominations than Best Actress, especially in the era of the expanded ballot. As in:
2018 – 4/5
2017 – 4/5
2016 – 4/5
2015 – 2/5 (outlier)
2014 – 4/5
2013 – 5/5
2012 – 3/5
2011 – 3/5
2010 – 4/5
2009 — 2/5 (outlier – Jeff Bridges won)
The only winner since 2009 who did not turn in a transformative performance (e.g., lost weight, worked with a disability, endured tremendous physical trauma, wore makeup, etc) was Casey Affleck, who won for Manchester by the Sea. Casey Affleck really had no “transformational” challengers that year. The closest you got was Denzel Washington who was magnificent in Fences. But he also directed Fences, and it’s very rare for an actor to win when he’s also directing himself (only happened twice in Oscar history).
2016 feels a little like this year in that, at least so far, we don’t have an Oldman or a Day-Lewis in play. That might mean that the strength of Best Picture might carry a Best Actor hopeful through to a win, either because that film is winning Best Picture, or because it is close to winning (Manchester).
We know that since 2009, no Best Actress winner has matched with Best Picture, but by contrast, two Best Actor winners have matched Best Picture in that same period (though not since 2011). It’s rare.
It does seem like a pretty safe way to go to imagine your Best Actor winner will be in a Best Picture nominee. Once we figure out which films are going to the Big Show, we will have a better idea of whom our winner might be. Can these rules be broken? Of course they can. Nothing says history will always repeat itself.
If you’re following along, you’ll now know that if you’re thinking Joaquin Phoenix or Adam Sandler might win this year – or even Jonathan Pryce – you have to figure in their movies also getting nominated for Best Picture. But if you are just looking at nominations, it doesn’t matter as much. Adam Driver for Marriage Story (and The Report) and Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seem like pretty safe bets at this time for a Best Actor nomination.
Remember, this was true when Matthew McConaughey was up for Dallas Buyers Club, when Eddie Redmayne was up for The Theory of Everything, and when Gary Oldman was up for Darkest Hour. All of those films at the time seemed like long shot Best Picture nominees, but once they were nominated, you knew the die was cast.
I can see where Adam Driver has the kind subdue, relatable role that will appeal to Oscar voters – the husband, devoted father. He also has The Report.
Hm. I do not see Phoenix on your list here.
I think that the correct way of analyze is to check out who is going to be helped more by each event of the season…
Film Critics are a different beast and might go for Banderas (specially) and Driver.
Fellow Guild members may go for Phoenix and Pryce
Globes will undoubtfully go for Leo
Pattison and Dafoe are in a psychological horror film. See how that went for Toni Colette in Hereditary or the performers of A Quiet Place.
I am not sure THE IRISHMAN will be the epic masterpiece everyone seems to think it will. Scorsese is legendary and so is his cast here but for some reason I don’t see this one turning out as spectacularly as expected. Just a hunch though.
Fingers crossed for:
Christian Bale – Ford vs Ferrari
Robert Pattinson – The Lighthouse
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Willem Dafoe is Supporting, no?
I don’t think it’s been decided yet but why would he need to be?
On GD he is in Supporting.
Officially a stan for the two Adams. Please tell me in this year of reaches stuff like Rocketman, Two Popes or Motherless Brooklyn has no chance to crack the category.
Just Mercy looks a tv movie
They can submit it for Best After School Special at Daytime Emmy’s.
Well, “Lucy in the Sky” is with a 4 of 4 negative reviews at Rotten Tomatoes. So, Portman is out of the Best Actress race. I think that if Disney had kept “The Woman in the Window” this year, Amy Adams would really have a chance to win. Besides Zellweger, nothing looks locked and Best Actress looks very weak. The world is unfair. Maybe if “The Wife” had benn released this year, Close would have a better chance. So sad.
I wasn’t expecting this to flop this bad. We’ve had flop after flop lately so what is next?
0% based on 5 reviews. Yikes!
Stealing Thor from Hemsworth who worked his butt off compensates for Pale Blue Dud.
Oh puhlease, she left after Thor 2 that was a mess creatively and screwed over the director (Patty Jenkins) she signed on to work with. Now that Waititi clearly has an impressive vision for the future of the franchise, she came back, end of story.
Well, others didn’t leave after a mess (many had messy movies one way or the other when MCU was still trying to get a handle of itself) and a string of her post Oscar movies were total duds including her attempts to be action star, her directorial debut and now this crap. So I’m not fooled that this is an insurance career move in the wake of Lucy flop that she must have known would flop. Speaking of impressive vision, Taititi isn’t doing too well himself with Jojo either. Not seeing anyone clamoring to give him awards for such a safe movie, humor that doesn’t hide safeness aside.
Portman is doing well, most of the films you deem flops were never really meant to make a ton of money, they were tiny indie films that were essentially lucky to receive limited theatrical releases at all. She did get an Oscar nomination in lead for one of them (Jackie) though. Her one studio film in this period also can’t be just called a flop that easily : Annihilation may have gotten a wide release in the US but it was a Netflix release basically everywhere else, and a critically acclaimed one at that.
The jury is still out on Waititi’s JOJO RABBIT. It is a Hitler comedy ffs, of course it is divisive, we’ll see how the audiences and critics at large react when it is released next month. Waititi is a talent to watch out for, for the record.
Jojo isn’t divisive. reviews call it safe. Some take it as a negative and some take it as a positive but there’s no division some were afraid of.
Waitit is a talent and Portman is all wrong for Mighty Thor who is obviously a younger, much taller woman in the comic book, a female equivalent to Hemsworth. She was wrong for Jane to begin with and with this development even more so. But critics will tongue bath her so whatever. I used to be on her side but stealing the franchise from Hems is cold. Fuck her, fuck Waitit and fuck Feige. They’ll all see what it’s like to get something they worked for taken from them. Karma is a bitch.
Dude, nobody is stealing anything from anyone. Portman was an important part of launching the franchise in 2011, Hemsworth was an unknown at the time and she was a recently crowned Oscar winner and one of the most popular female movie stars who clearly was a draw for many. Hemsworth is the star of the franchise now of course and he recently signed on for several more Thor movies so just because there will be a quirky, potentially hilarious plot twist in the next movie with a female Thor and her being actual Thor’s ex, doesn’t mean Hemsworth is out, it means that Waititi will try to combine his vision with what made the franchise a hit in the first place, and one of the biggest components of that hit formula was the Thor/Jane relationship and the Hemsworth/Portman chemistry. Her coming back is a good thing and will probably be a great thing for the franchise in the long run.
their chemistry sucked and Jane wasn’t a popular character. heck, the biggest Thor movie is jane-less. And it’s obvious that she’ll replace him in Thor 5, 6, etc. We won’t agree on this, ever. I’ve never turned on a favorite star as fast as when she came up on the stage with her disdained look and held the hammer as if it was previously dropped in the toilet. Just no. And acting like she was the reason for Thor success, c’mon now. We’ll see how things develop but right now let me have a bit of revenge, ok? Lucy in the Sky is a flop. To quote Thor Ragnarok “YESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!”
If you want to turn it into a Portman vs. Hemsworth thing, at least don’t gloat about the flop status of Lucy in the Sky, I mean Hemsworth has been in how many hit films outside the MCU again ?
Hemsworth is a flop outside of Thor but he’s super committed in that role which is why I’m pissed that it’s getting taken away from him. he has nothing but Thor and he’s great in it. Whatever they throw at him – fat suit, eye patch, long hair, short hair, beard, shaven, comedy, tragedy, etc he did it like a champ. Not hard to see why my sympathy is 100% with him and not with Portman.
So here is why we have an argument : you claim Thor was taken from Hemsworth when we both know full well it was NOT.
So who’s going to be the lead in Thor 5?
There’s a notable difference between the problems that at least I’ve heard of for other Marvel movies and the disaster that was the production Thor: The Dark World (including Carter Buwell’s score being discarded and supposedly two directors being fired off the movie, the second after the movie had been shot and a producer finishing the post-production). It’s very understandable that Portman didn’t do Ragnarök, she had approval of the director on Thor: The Dark World and that was ignored when they fired Jenkins. She decided to make a statement and not appear in the next one, that is fair, it doesn’t mean that she’d never appear in Marvel movies again if she didn’t need a job (as proven by Endgame as well). And I’m not sure what her being in a Thor movie has to do with critical acclaim for her movies
Returning to Thor after flops, not being in Thor. She’s not fooling me. She’s back to Thor because she didn’t have a hit since she left. pretty much why any star returns to franchise they swore off when goings get tough without it. It’s a safety blanket. You know that a can’t-miss is waiting if everything else doesn’t pan out. Just wait if RDJ’s 200M extravaganza Dolittle flops. He’ll be back as Iron Man in no time. I love the guy but he doesn’t know how to live without a huge hit anymore. Evans dodged the bullet for now with Knives Out.
I guess I just don’t see why you think that Portman’s strategy has been to make hits considering her filmography after Thor: The Dark World has been:
Knight of Cups
The Heyday of Insensitive Bastards
A Tale of Love and Darkness
Jane Got a Gun (as a Lynne Ramsay movie)
Jackie
Planetarium
Song to Song
Annihilation
Vox Lux
The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
These are not the movies that you make if you’re trying to make hits, and because of this your “She ran to Thor when her movies surprisingly bombed” makes absolutely no sense because I’d imagine she was hardly surprised (and also, you seem to be conflating critical reception with box office numbers that haven’t happened yet in terms of Lucy in the Sky but seem to for example ignore the critical acclaim Jackie recieved, which makes the crux of your argument incosistent and makes you seem like you revel in the idea that her new film is going to possibly bomb also at the box office)
I’m not ignoring Jackie acclaim. She got nominated but given the buzz at TIFF, she ended up a non-factor since critics were backing Hupert or another, while televised precursors jumped on Stone wagon. So perhaps she was hoping for more. her stans were convinced she had the second one in the bag and yet wasn’t even a runner-up.
We won’t agree about Thor situation. I see it as a return to boxoffice relevance at the expense of the hard working star and that will never have my sympathy. As for whether she wanted boxoffice with those other movies, certianly she didn’t expect 100M but most likely didn’t expect that they would all bomb that bad and that all but 1 failed to even be prestige.
It’s one of those ‘bad enough to be negative, but not atrocious’ films where a super low RT percentage may not tell the whole story of how bad it really is.
I was. Why do you think she swallowed her pride and returned to Thor? That was a dead giveaway she had another bomb waiting to explode.
This is how I’m seeing this race for now:
1. Driver(lock)
2. Phoenix( almost a lock, those reviews getting worse by the day are worrying me though)
3. Pryce (at this point he looks really strong/ The Irishman might be a success but I doubt De Niro performance as a gangster will be getting more praise)
4. Banderas (Cannes Best Actor, Pain and Glory is not getting in BP which is a weakness)
5. DiCaprio (he’s starting to feel vulnerable, OUATIH is still strong but other performances are getting more praise and attention). Sorry Sammy, I hope I’m wrong.
Joker reviews may be getting worse (there’s an obvious movement to stop its nomination at all cost) but Phoenix is praised. Also, the movie and performance are the most talked about of candidates so there will be passion for him. It would be scandalous to snub him. However, I agree it’s tough to talk locks this early (except Zellwegger who seems to have stars lined up for the win).
I’m not sure that Driver is locked. He has reviews, the showstopper scene, his movie and co-stars have reviews and it all looks like bucketload of noms across the board. However, it’s Netflix and they are juggling 2 other Actor candidates Pryce (iconic real life character, feelgood movie, great reviews for him and the movie, maybe more accessible to AMPAS than Baumbach) and DeNiro (big unknown but coming with tons of prestige names and enormous pricetag that needs to recoup the investment).
Point being, we are in the critical reception phase but that doesn’t necessarily decide the final outcome. For all we know, something with middling reviews such as Jojo or Just Mercy could win the Basics Award on Sunday and change the game by propelling Jordan or that Jojo kid (who’s getting the best reviews of everyone involved in the movie). Jordan would hurt Phoenix for same studio. if WB felt that Joker was a dead end (again, reviews aren’t be all and end all and divisive movies have enough passion to go far), they would push the horrible Oscar bait instead.
I also disagree with Leo being more vulnerable than contenders whose movies will be less seen and whose roles aren’t as relatable to Hollywood industry as Rick Dalton. He’s in a critical and boxoffice hit that is about the industry (which they love). Being a fairly recent winner isn’t a strike against a nomination. Afterglow noms are pretty standard and enough time has passed for this to be a legit nom, not an afterglow.
At least he’s keeping DiCaprio. Many experts have already taken him out. Not that experts cannot be totally wrong. Anyway let’s see what happens at TIFF.
I’d like to know what experts and what is their prediction success rate. For right now, it seems to me that everyone is blinded by new arrivals but that’s not the same as sustaining the buzz. Look what happened with Joker. It was hot for Picture nom when it won Venice and few days later it’s become a big question mark for TIFF reviews dropped its rating considerably. So things are always in a flux. Jojo got rave tweets followed by abysmal reviews and now is hovering somewhere in “goodwill pass for its positive message” range. So Feinberg now thinks that’s enough to make the Picture cut. Again, things change. Sure things become less sure and less sure things become sure, etc.
IMO, Leo gets cut cause they are afraid to cut someone else. I’m cutting DeNiro. I really don’t think they are going to vote for de-aging and 160M flick that won’t break even.
I am positive that when Joker goes wide (and internationally) the reviews will go back up again.
Good point. International critics shouldn’t have agendas that are obviously driving some of negatives.
I have to agree about De Niro. I highly doubt he’s gonna deliver this undeniable and breathtaking performance after being so bad in so many movies for so long. The spark just isn’t there anymore. He’s gonna be good but not of the same caliber as Pryce. Everyone is talking about him, almost everyone is predicting him, The Two Popes is doing great at all the festivals. According to the latest polls Parasite and The Two Popes are hits with the audience scoring the first positions. I don’t see Netflix abandoning Pryce and everything he’s accomplished just to support an inferior performance.
I doubt that that “spark” is somehow just gone and it’s not like he didn’t give a wonderful perfomance in The Intern just 4 years ago, a performance that was considerably better than at least three of the Oscar nominees in the best actor that year
He’s very unpredictable and inconsistent. Once in a while he’s giving us decent/good performances. I think working with Scorsese might elevate his acting and we’ll get something worthy. But will he be better than Pryce? I doubt it.
True
That does look like the “5” that makes the most sense.
DiCaprio should be above Banderas. Not sure why many people think Antonio is likelier.
I hope my fellow Londoners had very good luck at the London Film Festival booking this morning!
I booked last week but just realised I may not be in town that week after all, ugh, fokin life always in the way of anything that’s good.
Banderas and Phoenix are awesome, DiCaprio and Egerton are very good.
I haven’t seen the rest yet.
I really keep my fingers crossed for Banderas and Phoenix but I actually think that both of them won’t be nominated. Banderas is in a foreign language movie that won’t be a big player at the Oscars, I think (unfortunately – I think that “Pain and Glory” is much more brilliant than “Parasite” [which is very good too… but still!) and Phoenix plays a character that was already rewarded with the Academy Award and in a movie that can be too dark for the Academy.
But we’ll see.
I think that either Driver or Pryce will get the Oscar.
It seems like Driver vs Pryce at this point, although it’s hard to imagine both Netflix films being locks for BP, with Irishman also likely in the mix.
Netflix can totally get all three nominated (if The Irishman doesn’t fail). That’s easy. Getting the wins is a different story.
The two that will have momentum to push through to the end of the year are Joaquin Phoenix and Adam Driver.
Joker inevitably will beget discourse which regardless of the criticisms will create a rhetoric and bring him into award conversations. Driver in 3 major films at the end of the year: Marriage Story, The Report and Star Wars. The later of which if it becomes a box office juggernaut consolidates the actor’s diversity and range displayed this year and could leave a big final impression on balloters.
I have only seen DiCaprio and Edgerton among the names mentioned and I will stick with DiCaprio as the frontrunner with a chance of really taking it all in the end. That’s how great he is in OUATIH for me. It was among his best performances and a thousand miles better than The Revenant. How I wish he lost there and get a truly deserving win this year.
I enjoyed Edgerton’s performance so much. He will be nominated at the Globes for sure. They just love Elton John enough to nominate him for his Gnomes and Juliet song. And Edgerton’s performance os so much deserving of an award over last year’s winner Rami Malek, Not to mention, Rocketman is a good film and Bohemian Rhapsody was not.
I get that complaining about people complaining about Green Book became a bit of an obsession for the heroic writers of AD last year. But can we please maybe stop with the preemptive kvetching about “wokesters” going after Joker? I’m simply not seeing the shitstorm you are hinting at that will derail the film.
That film will stand or fall with the voters based on a tolerance for the purported graphic violence as the film picks up steam (which to be fair has been a problem that has sort of dogged Tarantino throughout his awards career as well).
I am not at all convinced that after all the Roma/Netflix spleen venting last year, that you will have a Best Actor filed comprised of more than two actors from Netflix properties. You have five Netflix films on your shortlist here.
Hugh Jackman, Matthew Rhys, Joaquin Phoenix left off the list above. Also Robert Pattinson in Lighthouse, unless I’m mistaken and they’ve decided who’s lead/supporting.
If I Nominated for Best Actor 2019:
(88 new releases seen as of comment)
…..
— Chao Deng (Ying (Shadow))
— Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
— Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
— Zack Gottsagen (The Peanut Butter Falcon)
— Shia LaBeouf (The Peanut Butter Falcon)
I have seen 64 new releases so far:
Top 4 (in no particular order)
Leonardo DiCaprio(once upon a time in hollywood)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman
Daniel Auteuil (La Belle Epoque)
Robert Pattinson (High Life)
5th slot is very open bit right now-
Winston Duke (Us) or Jean Dujardin (Deerskin) or maybe Kang-Ho Song (Parasite) – though I struggle with whether he is lead because it is such an ensemble picture.
That party scene near the end of Parasite where the facial expression of Song changed in a snap while looking at the face of the husband is a masterclass of acting and will blow every actor’s performance this year. I don’t know how he did it but he did. So much emotions packed in just one facial/eye acting!
Oh totally! There are brilliant moments like that in his performance throughout the entire film… There are relatively big noticeable moments like that but also subtleties throughout that are so impressive… It’s by far one of the most impressive performances of the year, my questioning of whether to include him was over category rather than quality! If I was to judge all the performances listed regardless of whether they are lead or supporting he would probably be number 1 right now, I just don’t know whether he belongs in lead
There’s really no lead in the film for me as they all worked as an ensemble. I say he’s supporting. But damn, Parasite may really be an ensemble acting masterpiece alongside Bong’s directing. If just one of the actors was weaker than the other then it may not have worked at all but the fact is they were all so good.
I am so surprised that Song was mentioned here. He has done so many great roles.
My Best Song.
-Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory)
-Marcello Fonte (Dogman)
-Masahiro Higashide (Asako I & II)
-Tom Mercier (Synonymes)
-Edward Rowe (Bait)
And where is Antonio Banderas on this list?
probably just an omission.
Banderas is the narrative of the year. International prestige actor giving a career best performance, in an acclaimed film, that has NEVER been nominated for Oscar (despite a successful, multinominated career in both Cinema, Television and Theatre) and that became a Hollywood star in the process and that, unlike Pryce, for example, hasn’t internal competion for the spotlght… and that ALSO won the first Prestige award of the year, and is likely to be a strong candidate for critical darling at Critic film awards. He may be snubbed, of course, but so far, along Phoenix, is the stronger candidate for not only being nominated, but also for winning. Plus, everybody seems to like him at the very least… no known enemies.
Except most people have forgotten about his film, which is a problem. Of Michael Patterson’s telluride contenders poll it ranked 9th out of 15 films… That is well in the bottom half just below the report (a film that is also being forgotten about). Part of the issue is that Americans have a limited appetite for foreign films and Parasite is sucking up all of it – and beyond that generally there’s more excitement for portrait of a lady on fire than pain and glory (it was 5th on the same poll). It’s not just the rankings but more so it’s playing at both tiff and telluride and almost nobody is talking about it – the same is true of portrait of a lady on fire (though it has at least some buzz) because Parasite is sucking up all of the oxygen.
It definitely feels like a strong possibility for a foreign language nom and for Banderas to get nominated but at this point unless something in the narrative changes it isn’t winning anything. Sorry (I know you personally love it but you have to separate your opinion on quality from the objective view of its chances at winning).
Also, yes he won at Cannes but that says nothing – the last time a Cannes winner was even nominated was 2013. In fact in the last 20 years 4 of the Cannes actor winners have gotten Oscar nominations so that isn’t useful at all.
Right now I think for the win it’s Phoenix, Pryce or Driver… Maybe de niro when it comes out if it is as good as people hope but since he has won 2 already in such a packed year it’s probably not happening.
Right now, I think that Parasite could even WIN Best Picture. Ever since I saw it a month ago… I have never been this much of a fan. Forgive me, but Parasite is EVERYTHING to me.
If there has ever been a non-English language movie that could be the best, it is this one. Nobody dislikes it. Super entertaining AND arty.
Damn, and I thought my appetite to finally see this film couldn´t get any stronger!
So super overhyped and it will STILL give it that… and then some! Best movie in about 8-9 years, as I see it.
Wow, that would make it join “Ida”, “Call me by your name” and “Grand Budapest Hotel” in my best list.
Bong Joon-ho would surely be happy being in a company of these three movies. The movie belongs there.
I don’t disagree – I love Parasite. This isn’t a knock against Parasite it deserves all the praise it’s getting!
the film is released in October in the USA. It is not “forgotten”, it is fighting “Parasite” for the main focus of a foreign language film, and has two things Parasite hasn’t: Banderas winning awards as lead and Almodovar being a more recognisable name, already considered a master, giving his top masterpiece, his 8 1/2 or Amarcord. We will be able to really judge if Pain & Glory is a Best Picture nomination contender, when film critics awards start rolling and if it begins scoring Foreign, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Ensemble, Cinematography or Score… When Almodovar won Original Screenplay, there was another “Parasite” in competition, Alfonso Cuarón’s phenomenal masterpiece, “Y tu mamá también”… Almodóvar prevailed, despite many, many pundits thinking Cuarón and his film would take Foreign Film, Original Screenplay and even a Best Picture nomination in a more likely way than Pedro. Cuarón back then was in a similar position to the one Joo-ho Bong is, now… relatively “new” filmmaker to Hollywood consideration… question is, without having seen Parasite yet… is Parasite as crowdpleaser as Pain & Glory is? Because Oscar tends to go for crowdpleasers. But I can see both films, both directors and both screenplays nominated at once, honestly. It will depend on competition, but I can see both films scoring a shitload of high positions.
Yeah, people throw word forgotten too lightly just because movies that have been seen today are hogging the spotlight. Banderas movie is yet to hit cinemas so buzz will be renewed while something that came out earlier and was raved could fade away (for example, Hustlers).
1) Even if there was buzz for Y tu mamá también, the amount of actual awards it was nominated in best picture for was extremely small (from what I could find quickly only NSFC, the Village Voice Film Poll and the Toronto critics nominated it) and most of the awards nominations it got were foreign language film nominations, which doesn’t imply that it was a strong contender for best picture. Also, it was clearly a situation of a small newcomer (IFC Films, whose most high-profile film before 2002 was Tilsammans (Together) which is not that impressive) having two contenders: they had not only Y tu mamà tambièn but also a little film called My Big Fat Greek Wedding, which clearly was their main play, considering the incredible achievement of the list of nominations for that film. So if it was IFC’s second play, it’s a little different from Parasite, which clearly seems to be Neon’s pony (and even though Neon is a beginner as an awards studio, it’s one that has at least made one film that just had buzz at TIFF to an Oscar winner, which makes a notable difference).
2) I wouldn’t exactly describe Pain & Glory as a crowdpleaser, especially compared to Parasite, which everyone who has seen it seems to keep saying how much they love it but also how exciting and how much fun it is (and I would argue that Bong’s films in general are extremely entertaining, whereas Pain & Glory is eventually a very serious film in its contemplation of its lead character).
the last 20 minutes of P&G are crowdpleasing as anything can get… and of course, the magnificently hilarious cinemateque scene, which allows Banderas to show all his range
The cinemateque scene is one scene, and a lot of the closing 20 minutes of the film are about the main character’s struggles and the dark elements that surround his mind. In certain ways it’s happier by the end but it’s not the kind of film that entertains as much as it garners respect in my opinion and I think the former is what makes more easily for a crowdpleaser and seems to be what Parasite has (and at the very least is what every single other Bong Joon-ho movie I’ve seen has)
Sorry to insist, Portrait of a lady on fire is the real crowdpleaser. Parasite and Pain and glory are better films, specially Almodovar’s, but I really can’t figure out how the violence and the explicit scenes will make them #1 on everyone’s list.
What is happening, Academy?
I’m sorry but I just don’t see why Adam Sandler would get nominated or particularly win, as Sasha implies here. Safdie Bros. films have recieved 0 Oscar nominations previously (even though they have deserved some), Adam Sandler has 0 nominations and weren’t people at supposedly some screenings at Telluride very displeased with the film as it was supposedly a very aggressive experience especially on a sound level. None of this makes it seem like Sandler would be getting a nomination, just that critics like the performance
I would also point out that Sandler was on the “Netflix exclusive” train several years ago. With all the spleen venting about Netflix during the Roma run last year, it baffles me why so many people have Netflix dominating all the major categories like this.
Sandler has zero noms like Jennifer Lopez and yet critics are demanding her nomination for Hustlers. Not every actor gets nominated or snubbed for the same formula. Some get in on narrative, some on role and performance. Some win for body of work. some win for the first role ever. others never. So Sasha knows more than we do if she thinks Sandler has a legit shot.
That said, it seems to me that race is “wide open” because frontrunner is clearly Phoenix but some experts hesitate to call him so because they think that divisiveness of the movie could result in his snub. Another thing is that some studios have more than 2 candidates and they are not going to get them all in. So pundits have to cut someone loose but whom? Netflix alone has Driver, Pryce and DeNiro. So who to remove and why? I think this is also why some are predicting Leo snub as they deem him most vulnerable due to recent win and his movie may not sustain the buzz when competition begins its release.
Eddie Murphy is in the mix if the film does well in it’s qualifying theatrical run.
saw the trailer a couple of times and I am still don’t see how he is a contender….
Because all you saw was a trailer.
maybe, but if this is an Oscar vehicle for Murphy, I saw nothing indicating that he could be, sorry. Actor is REALLY crowded this year and Murphy’s only narrative is that he was snubbed for Showgirls when he seemed a sure thing. A similar case to Sandler… he has made so much crap through the years (that also goes for Burt Reynolds back in 1997 or Stallone a couple of years ago) that nomination was already his reward, in the minds of the AMPAS voters.
And Sandler has probably even less artistic reputation than Jim Carrey when he was in the running for The Truman Show and Man on the Moon in the 90s. I´m comfortably betting a box of beer against him getting a nomination!