The one deceptive thing about film criticism now is that we look at the consensus view or an aggregate score, rather than what film criticism really is (or supposed to be) about: a deeper analysis of the film, its impact, and its worth. The binary thumbs up, thumbs down approach has turned film criticism into a conclusion-based model, which defeats its own purpose. The same is true of any consensus vote, whether it’s the Oscars or Toronto’s People’s Choice Award. A consensus vote is really just the movie most people agree on as good or even great. Which generally makes it harder to award films that ultimately stand the test of time, like Citizen Kane, Vertigo, Psycho or Jaws. But the Oscar race is a game of predicting, and being able to read the consensus makes playing that game a little easier than trying to guess what is the greatest film of the year, or what will stand the test of time. We know that is impossible in the moment.
Last year’s Green Book win ties to Toronto in a way no Best Picture winner has since 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, which won the People’s Choice Award before winning Best Picture. Both Green Book and 12 Years also won the Producers Guild, another consensus vote but this time on a preferential ballot – showing strength with both a “most votes wins” ballot and a “majority wins” ballot. 12 Years shared the PGA with Gravity, make that year extremely hard to predict. Last year wasn’t that hard to predict if you remembered one of the fundamental rules of Oscar watching: a movie that is going to win in another feature film category won’t also win Best Picture. Why? Because voters like to spread the wealth, especially so with an expanded ballot. With eight or nine films up for Best Picture, do you really think they’re going to like a movie enough to give it Best Picture in TWO categories? Ain’t gonna happen. Or at least it hasn’t happened yet.
As far as this year goes, what popped in the Venice/Telluride/Toronto trifecta? Do we have any sure bets? It’s hard to say. It always seems like we do.
Let’s see how last year’s lineup finished the year and from where:
Green Book – TIFF (audience award)
Black Panther – studio release, February
BlackKklansman – Cannes
The Favourite – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
Roma – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
A Star Is Born – Venice/TIFF
Bohemian Rhapsody – studio release, November
Vice – late breaker, December
Let’s look at the year before:
The Shape of Water – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
Call Me By Your Name – Sundance
Get Out – Sundance
Dunkirk – studio release, July
Three Billboards – Venice/TIFF (audience award)
Darkest Hour – Telluride/TIFF
Lady Bird – Telluride/TIFF
Phantom Thread – late breaker, December
The Post – late breaker, December
And the year before that:
Moonlight – Telluride/TIFF
Hell or High Water – Cannes
Arrival – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
Hacksaw Ridge – Venice/TIFF
La La Land – Venice/Telluride/TIFF (audience award)
Lion – TIFF
Manchester by the Sea – Sundance
Fences – late breaker, December
Hidden Figures – late breaker, December
There is no pattern that is emerging at the moment that I can see. It seems like there is a mix of film festivals, studio releases, and late breakers, which are also studio releases but they come at the end of the year, which is how studios used to introduce “Oscar movies” before the awards calendar changed in 2004.
There will be two different types of films heading into the race. Those that are uplifting, about heroes and happy endings:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Cannes
Marriage Story – Venice/Telluride/TIFF
Waves – Telluride/TIFF
Ford v Ferrari – Telluride/TIFF
The Two Popes – Telluride/TIFF
Knives Out – TIFF
Just Mercy – TIFF
Harriet – TIFF
Jojo Rabbit – TIFF
And those that taxi to the darker side, which are traditionally harder to count on in the Oscar race but might signal a shift forthcoming:
Joker – Venice/TIFF
Uncut Gems – Telluride/TIFF
The Irishman – New York
The Lighthouse – Cannes/TIFF
Parasite – Cannes (Palme d’Or)/Telluride/TIFF
There are so many other films left to see, like Little Women and 1917, that it’s hard to draw a complete picture. It’s hard to draw even a partial picture, knowing that hype from these festivals evaporates very quickly.
If I had to guess, I think Best Picture would be in this order of most likely:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
The Two Popes
Waves
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
Not seen yet:
Little Women
1917
The Irishman
Borderline:
Uncut Gems
Knives Out
Joker
Netflix factor: Will they put three Netflix movies in Best Picture? Doubtful. But which two out of the three? Hard to say right now.
Recent TIFF People’s Choice winners that won Best Picture:
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire
2010 – The King’s Speech
2013 – 12 Years a Slave
2018 – Green Book
Recent People’s Choice winners that were nominated for Best Picture:
2009 – Precious
2012 – Silver Linings Playbook
2014 – The Imitation Game
2015 – Room
2016 – La La Land
2017 – Three Billboards
If I had to guess what wins People’s Choice this year, I might say either Marriage Story or Waves.