Renee Zellweger leads the Best Actress race, at least so far this year. But it is also a strong year for women of color in both the lead actress and supporting actress categories, with Awkwafina in The Farewell and Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers (lead or supporting), along with Lupita Nyong’o headlining Jordan Peele’s hit horror film, Us, Cynthia Erivo for Harriet, and Alfre Woodard in Clemency. And further down the road, we’ll have Jodie Turner-Smith for Queen and Slim.
In general, the Best Actress race is the least inclusive category, due to there being such a shortage of lead roles for women at all, and for women of color especially. But this year, at least so far, it seems like there has been much more inclusion all the way around.
Last year’s Best Actress race was one of the biggest upsets that I’ve seen in the two decades I’ve been covering the Oscars, when Olivia Colman for The Favourite prevailed over Glenn Close, who was on her seventh Oscar nomination with no wins. The problem? The Wife wasn’t as well-liked across all the branches as The Favourite.
The Favourite had ten nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. It won no other Oscars except Best Actress. Without knowing Glenn Close’s back story or not caring about whether she ever won an Oscar for her past work, this choice would likely be a no brainer, despite the fact that Emma Stone was really the lead in The Favourite and Olivia Colman a supporting player. But Colman was great in the role and clearly the voters felt that they needed to lean towards the film that had more nominations overall.
A similar problem could present itself this year if Judy earns just the single Oscar nomination for Renee Zellweger. It could be enough, as it was with Julianne Moore when she won for Still Alice, but will there be other contenders that bear the weight of their entire films as Colman did?
There are at least two films that need to be seen before we’ll know the full contours of this race, and those are Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, with Saorise Ronan once again headed for a Best Actress nomination, and Bombshell, with Charlize Theron as Megan Kelly. Both films are going to be ensemble works, headed for SAG with exactly the kind of thing SAG likes: big stars, and lots of them.
Also headed for SAG in a really big way will have to be Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story and the lead performance of Scarlett Johansson. Along with her supporting turn in Jojo Rabbit, Johansson seems to be a very strong Oscar player right now. It could turn out to be the year of Scarlett Johansson and the year she wins an Oscar. It’s definitely going to be an “in it to win it” kind of situation, where campaigning, I would assume, would matter.
The way I see it, there are four main ways Best Actresses win:
- The performance purely – where the performance is so good it stands alone on its own merit.
- The star and the performance – when actors transform themselves or do such a good job contrasting their work from work they’ve done in the past (e.g., Charlize Theron in Monster), or when women have established box office success (e.g., Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich, Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side).
- Overdue status and the performance, like Julianne Moore in Still Alice, Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine.
- Swept along with Best Picture and the performance – this would be Olivia Colman last year for The Favourite, Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook, Emma Stone in La La Land, Frances McDormand in Three Billboards, or conversely, when the performance elevates the film into the top categories, like Brie Larson in Room, Kate Winslet in The Reader.
In general, though, if voters don’t really like a movie, it will be harder for the performance, no matter how good it is, to be included. The more they like the movie, the more they tend to like the performance.
So, where are we now in the Best Actress race? It looks something like this:
Frontrunners – seen and reviewed:
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Frontrunners on paper – not seen or reviewed:
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
That’s six names. One will have to go, but which one? It will depend on the movie itself, how much voters respond. Jordan Peele’s Us is a horror film and not traditionally Oscar bait, but Nyong’o work is extraordinary in the film. The film made $175 million and she leads the cast. That has to be a big deal. It is the only film besides Captain Marvel with a female in the lead to land in the top ten highest grossing films of the year. Will that matter?
Other contenders I think have a shot – all four of these films revolve around the female leading the story (again, kind of unprecedented):
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
It’s early yet, and there are lots of films to see, lots of buzz to make, lots of shitstorms to wade through. This is but the start of a very long season.
I’m hoping this year will be a ground-breaking year for the Best Actress race in several regards. I see the top 8 contenders as follows:
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Jodie Turner-Smith – Queen & Slim
Alfre Woodard – Clemency
Renee Zellweger – Judy
I could see this going several ways, but I feel like the locks are:
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (Best Picture edge)
Alfre Woodard – Clemency (Critically acclaimed film & especially performance AND a ground-breaking role for a woman of color)
Renee Zellweger – Judy (already a lock)
Though Cynthia Erivo and Awkwafina have said to give great performances, I feel like the only way they get nominated is if their films get in for nominations for Best Picture (which seems unlikely for Harriet, but certainly possible for The Farewell).
I think Lupita Nyong’o in Us also gives a ground-breaking roles as a woman of color in Us but just a critically acclaimed performance in general & the box office doesn’t hurt either.
Saoirse Ronan is a favorite, though I don’t think she’ll win. If Little Women is in for Best Picture nomination, she can’t be left out as her character is the center of the film.
I think Queen & Slim will be a surprise hit, both critically & commercially and I think Jodie-Turner Smith has a good chance of getting into the top 5 because of it.
As I see it now, the strongest possibility of the top 5 (in my opinion) are as follows:
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Alfre Woodard – Clemency
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Who wins it? ALFRE WOODARD for CLEMENCY.
1. Critically acclaimed film AND performance. She just gives a dang good performance. And I think she’ll take all of the critics awards.
2. A woman of color hasn’t won Best Actress since Halle Berry for Monster’s Ball wayyyy back in 2001.
3. Alfre Woodard is a legend and veteran actress who only has 1 oscar nomination to her name for Best Supporting Actress way back in 1984 for Cross Creek and is a beloved figure in the industry and has been giving stellar performances year after year, film after film. Way, way overdue for a nomination and win.
4. Johansson’s prize will be the nomination.
5. Lupita Nyong’o already has an oscar.
6. Saoirse Ronan is still young and will have plenty of other opportunities (and I think she probably gives a good performance but will be awarded for a better performance down the road). She reminds me of a young Cate Blanchett. She’ll have her due for sure.
7. Renee Zellweger already has an oscar as well. Not overdue. Just a comeback.
Just some thoughts. 🙂
I think Woodard’s gonna take it all.
Both Scarlett and Zellweger seem weak front runners if you ask me: I don’t think Scarlett is respected enough by industry to win at her fist nomination and Driver looks the unanimous MVP judging by reviews and reactions on social media, seems like in the last part of movie it’s a Driver showcase, it would be a little bit anticlimatic if Scarlett wins and Driver loses don’t you think so? And Dern will likely win in supporting so what they will do? 3 acting win at same movie? Don’t know last time it happened.
On the other hand Zellweger doesn’t have any narrative for a second win, she’s not Blanchett when she won Blue Jasmine, everybody knew Cate was going to win it (and by the way she totally deserved), but the biggest issue I see in her case is that the movie looks a weak contender, it will likely ends with a single nomination, maybe something in minor categories like makeup.
So who wins? If movie doesn’t flop I think Ronan will win the battle, she’s one of the biggest darling of AMPAS, so young and already 3 nominations, she was likely the runner up last 2 times she was nominated so in a certain way she’s due for an oscar.
I don’t know about anti-climactic but I was asking similar question in another post re: Dern win without Johansson or Driver. It doesn’t feel right.
That said, they don’t vote based on whether this or that feels right or how they would rank actors from different categories. If one has stronger competition and the other weaker, than the latter can win even if the former is the movie’s MVP. It’s a category thing.
However, I disagree Zellweger is a weak frontrunner. She has the role that wins are made of and reviews to back it. Plus, the comeback narrative. Like, this lady was written off completely. Until she wasn’t. AMPAS loves stories like this and so does the media.
I see her like Portman for Jackie, she has the role, raves and nothing else, and she has an oscar already
That’s a good point though I wager Judy is much more likable role than Jackie. Plus Renee gets to sing and supposedly her Over the Rainbow is a stunner.
While Zellweger could be hurt in the long run by the fact her film is unlikely to score a (filler) BP nod, she does have a narrative and a rather strong one, as well : artistic comeback after a deplorably unfair media takedown. She also has never won in lead so her having won in supporting before isn’t as big of an obstacle, either.
Glenn Close had the ultimate narrative – the veteran 7 time nominated actress who never won. Zellweger has won before – and without a BP nod, she will have to be undeniable and the movie has to be a box office success – like Blanchett.
Fair point however I think the Glenn Close snub last year was an anomaly.
I kinda thought Renee Zellweger had gone down the Gwyneth Paltrow/Anne Hathaway road — an actress who formerly was really loved, who won an Oscar, and has since become disliked and regarded as somewhat weird or creepy. I’m not saying this is fair, just what the narrative has been. So can Zellweger come back from that position?
We should never judge a film by its trailer but, just for fun: Zellweger does not evoke Judy Garland even 1% in the trailer for Judy. I think we have seen great performances by actors playing a famous person where they did not necessarily always evoke the physical person 100% (Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote, superb in evoking who Capote was, though not always a perfect “impersonation”). So it is not necessarily fatal for Zellweger, but, I mean, that trailer?????!!!!!
If they give it to Driver, I can’t see where Johansson will be passed up. Marriage Story is about the 2 of them. I do think Ronan will win – one day. But it won’t be for Little Women.
Well, if that is the case, Marriage Story is winning BP, isn’t it? I have Driver and Baumbach winning BA and BOS, respectively. Dern looks strong in support, too. It just looks unlikely it could three acting awards and screenplay.
potential big 5er perhaps? I doubt it… But it’s probably the only film this year that has a chance.
Thinking (at this early stage):
-Zellweger – what a cool story if she were to win.
-Johansson – a nom finally, but they may not be ready to welcome her into the WIN club. We’ll see.
-Ronan – a nom seems destined, but can she win for Little Women?
-Theron – I’m really thinking she could be a thing, here. Just a hunch.
-5th – toss-up for me between Awkwafina (critics have to help her), Erivo (reviews for her movie are meh), or Woodard (sight unseen).
-I have Felicity Jones in a tentative 8th; to see if anyone falls out from above.
-I think N’yongo is excellent, but the film’s release date and genre may work against her.
that doubt about Scarlett could be count for Zellweger as well, if they are not ready to welcome Scarlett into win club maybe they aren’t as well for Zellweger into double win club. I mean let’s be honest, last 15 years of her career are just a tragedy, totally the opposite with Scarlett.
We have almost 5 months left from this season so I’m just going to say this now : tearing down one contender in an attempt to build up another is not a welcome approach around here, it wasn’t last year when the hardcore Gaga fans went after Glenn Close and it sure as fuck won’t be this year when the hardcore Johansson fans will attempt to go after Zellweger.
Zellweger is 50 who took the better part of this decade off, comparing her to 34-year old Scarlett Johansson who worked steadily in the same time frame and thanks to a franchise, became one of the biggest movie stars of all time, is just completely and utterly pointless and unnecessary.
For the record though, Zellweger could have taken two fucking decades off if she wanted to and it still wouldn’t have changed the fact that she is an Oscar winning movie star with several iconic performances on her resume. A resume that by now also gives her the right to come and go whenever she pleases. She wanted to take six years off ? Oh well, on her return she headlined a critically well-received film that cost 35M to produce and made 210M worldwide. So she hasn’t had an Oscar nomination in 15 years ? So what, she could STILL just come back with the right role and become an instant Oscar frontrunner as if it were 2002 again.
That’s just it about icons, they may go away every now and then but when they DO come back then it tends to be just that : a comeback. And who doesn’t love those.
P.S. Johansson is great and I’m in the camp who find it ridiculous that she has never received an Oscar nomination before, having said that you can root for her without being an asshole about her competition. It’s not that hard.
the only unnecessary thing here is your butthurt, that doubt about scarlett counts as well for Zellweger, academy can think a nomination is enough for scarlett? well, academy can think a welcome back to business nomination is enough for Zellweger.
You know your argument ranges from weak to non-existent when you feel the need to make your point by using words like “butthurt”.
maybe because someone used words like asshole lol.
And I stand by that. Calling 15 years of an Oscar-winner’s career “tragedy” when for a good part of those years she was on a break, IS an asshole move. Not to mention irrelevant when the film she is up for the Oscar for at the moment is garnering her career-best reviews…and since she has 2 lead nominations and a supporting win already, “career-best” does mean a lot here.
I agree re N’Yongo — i don’t see her being nominated at all. Interesting that Erivo is declining — she was the surefire Oscar favourite a few months ago, the undeniable new actress, person of colour, playing a real person and an icon.
Are we sleeping on Downton Abbey?
It plays right into the core demographic of The Academy….I mean Maggie Smith is a legend, I could see her pulling off a nomination. So many great supporting roles in the show, not sure how that translates to a film, but the reviews seem to be fairly good.
Something to think about.
Oscar voters probably aren’t Emmy voters. Plus the majority of the sets and costumes in the film has or in one way or another been seen in the show throughout its 6 season run. And another problem for the film and you mentioned it as well, “So many great supporting roles in the SHOW.” That’s because it has a whole season run their story arcs which they don’t have that luxury in a movie.
I also believe that the British bloc and the core demographic will prefer another film and not a TV series follow up.
Then again if you’re a fan of the series I’m sure it’ll be easy to like the movie and if you’re not yet then you might be converted to checking out the series after seeing it.
I wouldn’t put it past BAFTA to give Smith a push in Supporting over a more solid nominee such as Lopez. Whether that sticks remains to be seen.
I don’t think it would be over Lopez but the widespread industry support Maggie Smith could have this season, shouldn’t be underestimated. She is very popular with Golden Globe AND Sag AND Bafta voters and if she scores those three precursor nods or even just two of the three, she will be in there with a strong shot at that Oscar nomination.
Then some Little Women hopeful.
Lopez is a 50-year old megastar who has never been even nominated let alone win yet this year she has the best reviews of her career for a flashy supporting role in a smash hit. She will be very hard to ignore even if some from films like Little Women or Downton Abbey do emerge as viable contenders.
For now, she and Dern are the strongest contenders in supporting actress. Will she lose steam going forward ? Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe she will just go all the way. For now my money is on Dern though.
Yeah, Dern could Regina King her way as the respected actress who finally is in the position to be rewarded. Also, she has the SCENE and movie will likely be a Picture nominee.
That said, It doesn’t feel right for Dern to be the only acting winner from Marriage Story considering how crucial Johnasson and Driver are for why the movie works. And they have RAVES too. Yet, I can’t see Zellwegger and Phoenix not winning to provide a Johnasson/Dern or Driver/Dern combo. I’m torn. Maybe Lopez wins after all?
Estelle Parsons was the only acting winner for Bonnie & Clyde.
REALLY? Well, Dern is deserving so whatever happens will happen.
I’d love to see Dern win for something — she will also have supporters who love her in Big Little Lies. But we cannot underestime the love their is for J-Lo — multi-talented, big force in the industry, and just seems like a super nice and down to earth person undermeath all the glitz and glamour. These things matter.
I don’t think it will figure into the top categories (picture, directing, writing, lead acting) but nominations in supporting actress (Smith), costume design and art direction are definitely possibilities. I liked the film, it was no great masterpiece or anything but it was a very pleasant viewing experience with classic storytelling, an excellent ensemble and top-notch production values.
Then again it IS right up the Academy’s alley so if it turns into a smash hit then I guess a BP filler nod could be in the cards, too.
I think it will be a smash hit for sure. There are so many people who adore the show, older and younger people….I know the competition for Best Picture is always tricky to predict, however, this movie getting in wouldn’t surprise me. Think—–if The Blind Side, The Help, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hidden Figures, and I’m sure there are more that are more commercial films that made lots of money that people loved but are just so-so can get in, Downton easily could get in. Maggie, though not a lock, I feel she will make it in.
HOWEVER, I think it really just depends on how snobby they want to be with it being a TV show first.
I will say that if it crosses 100M in the US and 200M worldwide, I will definitely consider it as a contender for a filler BP slot. But that’s a big if, pre-sales and early tracking are through the roof but there is always the possibility that even if it opens well, it could just be a one-week kind of phenomenon with most fans checking it out in Week 1.
All the reviews I read about Downton is that it’s a snooze.
oh god please no
So that’s it? It’s a “strong year” but you only list 10 performances? And of those, Harriet is getting bad reviews. Moss is completely forgotten and the film also had bad reviews. Us and Nyongo were done months ago, The Aeronauts isn’t going anywhere and Theron/Ronan haven’t been seen. How’s that a “strong year”?
Zellweger and Johansson are so far ahead it’s ridiculous.
I wonder if in the end we could be naive enough to believe that the 2 blondes could by some miracle be joined by Erivo, Woodard and Nyongo.
Haven’t seen Woodard, but I’m all for a black actress, even more so an older black actress, to also be a nominee, specially in lead. It’s not that you don’t see that every day, I’m 99% sure we’ve never seen that. Ever. Is Ruby Dee the only “old” black woman to be nominated?
And Woodard has been very consistent even in small supporting roles. And words from Sundance say she’s a force in Clemency. Would LOVE for her to be nominated. I actually think that the film just needs to be seen by wider audience to solidify her contender status like Zellweger and Johansson.
all of this. Actress field is so weak Lopez could go lead and threaten Zellwegger. But yeah, sure noms are Zelly and Scarlett. The rest of them are in the flux for they are all just also-runs.
Erivo’s movie is getting shit reviews and her own reviews are not that great. So if Lupita sneaks in over her the better. Lupita was fantastic in US and has reviews.
I think in best actress it will be veterans year or cynthia’s year
Cythia’s movie is a dud and her reviews are nowhere Zellwegger level. if she won it would be considered one of the worst wins ever. I don’t care for her EGOT, pick a better movie and give a better performance, lady. And try to be more likable too.
“Try to be more likeable” ?
Ew.
she’s horribly off putting. horribly.
I haven’t caught any of this, can you provide some links or something ?
read her interviews. Always full of herself and always looking angry. Plus, there was some thing with her Broadway castmates, some diva behavior. Try to Google. I read about it on Goldderby.
Harriet is one of the few black women in history that is considered heroic. If the race is not strong enough then she may even win. It depends on the exposure of the movie at the end of the day.
Are you suggesting that shitty movie and not all that praised performance should win only because the real life person was a hero? How about, make more movies about this heroine and make sure one of them is actually great so that the win is deserving. Erivo win would be hated. She doesn’t have the movie, she doesn’t have the reviews, she’s far far away from undeniable and she’s just chasing EGOT. Win and you’ll never live the backlash down.
take it easy. There is no real competition in best actress category this year. Its a dull year no matter who wins.
Zellwegger and Johnasson are way out on the front. So it’s between them unless Ronan is second coming of Blue Jasmine.
johansson is not winning. She is not the kind of the person to receive all the love for marriage story. Adam driver will be the one who receives the love.
They are both receiving critical love though and that the movie played so well with TIFF is encouraging af. Both have a banner year. She has this, Jojo and Endgame. He has this, Report and TROS.
She is not winning especially because she has endgame aka she is associated with MCU . That alone will put a stink on your career. If she had done some interesting independent work in the past decade then that would give her some support. But she has been so immersed in popcorn blockbuster films for the past decade, that would take her out of contention immediately.
she did interesting independent work n the past, actually one of MCU actors who balanced MCU with different kind of work. Her, Under the Skin for example.
thats one notable film for 10 MCU movies. Not enough.
10 MCU movies are her contractual obligation. Go through her filmography and you’ll see more that she did between MCU.
I thought Awkafina(?) in the Farewell was a supporting. And the lead was the grandmother. If Fina gets a best actress nod, the grandmother should get a best supporting. I still say that Jennifer Lopez is supporting and Constance Wu is best actress nom because she has more screen time.
I guess they’ll figure it out.
Awkwafina is definitely lead, it’s her sorry told from her perspective and she’s in almost every scene where there are small chunks of the film where her Nai Nai isn’t present so this is one of those cases where lead v supporting is extremely clear cut… But I where they should both be nominated (with Awkwafina lead and Zhao supporting).
Could Zellweger’s previous win hinder her chances? It’s been over 15 years since her win so I don’t think so. There seems to be a lot of love for Garland in Hollywood so I think that could help her.
Zelly’s win was in Supporting ages ago and previous wins didn’t stop Waltz and Ali in the same fuckin category so soon.
I’ve been so out of touch this year. My mind is just not the same as it was before.. that or im still trying to figure out what direction this season is going so not quite as excited yet? Anyway…I was on the Luce train but everyone but me seemed to hop off. Saw hustlers.. it was decent. Jlo was decent. Love the diversity this year esp in lead actress. Nyong’o is a tricky one.. she’ll be a critics darling forsure but will she do a Collete and fall short? Time will tell.
This whole movie year has been a snooze for me. Nothing of interest, just a handful of movies seen. I just think between TV, movies, streaming, there’s too much content out there and I don’t have time to keep up with all of it. That’s why I look for reviews and forums to determine — pick & choose – what I’m going to spend my money on.
I only see Zellweger and Johansson as the most likely to be nominees in Lead Actress to be honest.
Then Awkwafina and Woodard the as long shots as we wait for the critics precursors.
Only those four names.
From the unseen, it’s just Ronan for Little Women.
Other thoughts:
Is Streep Lead or Supporting in The Laundromat?
Theron in Bombshell and not Mirren in The Good Lie?
I have a hunch that Zellweger won’t be the lone nomination for Judy.
Thompson could sneak in for Late Night if it gets in the Globes.
Really not feeling Erivo, Nyong’o, Jones and Moss.
Streep is being campaigned supporting for The Laundromat
#3 Cate Blanchett wasn’t really overdue – she had won before. She was #1. Her win was undeniable – she was one of the most rewarded Best Actress – with the critics and the TV awards. Blue Jasmine was also the 2nd highest box office Woody Allen film.
The best actress of her generation and one of the all time greats was not overdue for anything. She easily knocked out of the park. Her win was the last truly great female performance that won the Oscars.
Love the fair inclusion of Moss, but that would be a huge surprise i guess (she great in Us too, equally hard role to cross over i think, unfortunately). In a similar role, Jessie Buckley is also great in Wild Rose, another outsider. And for the time, i am keeping Dame Mirren (for the good Liar) and Kristen Stewart(for seberg) on the radar…
The way I see it
1-2 : ZELLWEGER and JOHANSSON are as close to lock status for nominations as ones can be in September and both are viable contenders for the win, too. For now my money is on Zellweger and her pitch-perfect comeback narrative however few could argue that Johansson’s epic year (highest grossing film of all time (Endgame) + 2 potential BP nominees (Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story) will be hard to ignore, as well.
3-4 : AWKWAFINA and ERIVO are solid and should remain in strong consideration for the nominations, however they are newcomers in small films so for now I don’t see either of them actually winning. Former delivered an understated role in a highly acclaimed film that could figure into top categories, helping her case a great deal; while latter has a flashy, iconic role that according to reviews she pulled off with flying colours, what does hurt her case is that the same critics were not that keen on her film (59 RT, 63 MC) and newcomers with great performances in mediocre films, based on precedent, simply don’t win in lead, to be fair even the nomination would be a minor surprise. Having said that the critical scores of Harriet could improve upon general release and this early on in their film career the nomination itself would be quite the reward for both actresses already.
5 : The fifth slot is most likely down to RONAN or THERON with the potential twist being that both could easily explode onto the scene and take the lead relatively late in the game. For now I would go with Ronan simply because the pedigree behind her film is stronger.
Potential Shocker : EMILIA CLARKE. I think we may have been sleeping on this for a while now, but here’s the deal : Paul Feig (excellent track record) directed a film based on an Emma Thompson script, a film that is positioned as a Holiday crowdpleaser that can rely on a big studio push and an Oscar-friendly release date. Add the fact that Clarke was seemingly tasked to pull off a role that requires her to deliver the quite difficult combination of screwball comedy goofiness, dying girl dramatics and winning vocal performances, and all of a sudden, I could easily see Clarke become both a revelation in the role and a surprise entry in this year’s Best Actress race. My two cents.
Should be a contender : JESSIE BUCKLEY. Textbook “star is born” turn in Wild Rose that should be celebrated.
Side note : LOPEZ is and should be in supporting (Wu is the narrator and obvious lead). I would still give the edge to DERN but it can’t be denied that if Lopez secures the nod, the marketing muscle behind her will be most likely massive.
Good thing you mentioned Clarke. But I think her performance in Last Christmas needs to be beyond that sceewball comedy and dying girl cliche. I trust Emma Thompsons writing and of course Paul Feig’s unique wit but what bothers me is that he never wrote this and he works best (helloooooopo Spy!!!!) If he also writes his material. Plus the fact that we’ve “been there, done that” with Golding and Yeoh son-mother tandem.
The Feig / Thompson duo definitely warrants attention.
Bombshell is supposedly bad so cross Theron out.
When officials reviews arrive stating the same THEN and only then I will.
ah but where’s fun in that? 😉
Well, you got me there 🙂
I have three names as likely nominees: Zellweger, Johansson and awkwafina. Three strong performances and the latter two have strong films, too. I’d think it be very difficult to beat Zellweger, especially playing such an iconic role, but if anyone can pull it off it’s the underrated Johansson.
I think it’s going to be a enormous task to beat Adam Driver to Best Actor. The guy has two, not just one great performance, and the time is just right for him. The competition isn’t really close to him, unless De Niro and The Irishman are epic. His biggest opponent could be Phoenix, but I don’t think he is even close.
I think best supporting actress is over before it really began. It’s Jlo’s to lose, despite a strong case for Dern. I wanted Dern or Benning to finally win and I usually don’t care for Jlo, but you’ve got to love Hustlers.
Supporting Actor is much more trickier than the other acting categories. People are defaulting to Brad Pitt, but I don’t think it will be him because his performance isn’t that strong and there’s no rush to reward him as he has already won an Oscar. I am picking Dafoe because he could have the undeniable performance. Judging by the trailer, which I think might the best trailer I have seen, he has that Oscar moment which used to be how you judged the Oscar winner. Hopkins could win as his performance is ace, and he is much admired and loved veteran actor, too. This category is less clear, and we might not know who will win until the end.
I think the Farewell could be strong and might get BP, BD, screenplay and acting nom. We wonder why films by females or minorities don’t get attention; well, this one has it all. Why shouldn’t it be up there?
I don’t think The Joker will do that well, to be honest. I think people are overestimating it, forgetting how incredible difficult it is for superhero films to be nominated. There’s been only one and The Joker is nothing like Black Panther.
The supporting actor race is fascinating this year because it looks the most obvious (Pitt) yet could easily be the most surprising category, too, this season. On one hand, yes, Pitt is most definitely the unchallenged early frontrunner. BUT strong cases could be made for
1. Shia LaBeouf (comeback / personal film / he wrote it, too)
2. Alan Alda (Oscar-less legend)
3. Timothee Chalamet (especially if he gets traction in lead for The King, too)
4. Sterling K. Brown (especially if Waves becomes a contender in the top categories)
And those four are just the strong cases that could be made for the big win in the end; while the likes of Hanks, Hopkins, Bale, Pesci may not be necessarily well-positioned to win, they could easily score nominations in the end.
So while Pitt is definitely the frontrunner, I could easily see one of those first 4 giving him a run for his money…that is if the contender in question makes the top5, a big if considering the heavyweight second quartet gunning for places in the top5, too.
I think we’re all sleeping on Hanks a bit. I don’t quite see why he’s not a (or the?) frontrunner at the moment. He has all it takes to win it.
He is in good shape but with two lead Oscars already under his belt, it will be difficult to make a case why he should get a third, this time in supporting.
He got those 25 years ago! And he paid for them big time, with the Academy regularly overlooking him for a lot of things. Plus, he’s Tom freaking Hanks! Meryl successfully built an overdue narrative for a third Oscar, why couldn’t he?
You answered your own question. If the Academy couldn’t have been bothered to nominate him for very worthy performances he delivered in the last 20 years, why would they all of a sudden go out of their way to not just nominate him but also give him a third ?
For the record, I do agree, he was snubbed several times rather unfairly since the 2000/2001 season, having said that I don’t see a winning narrative for him this year.
And Hanks didn’t need damn near a nomination per year to do it either.
Although he could join the 3 timers club, deservedly so, but at the same time not tread on DDL’s 3 lead achievement… Hanks getting nominated for the first time in almost 20 years will be the 1st challenge though.
I think after being snubbed for many years, a nomination will seem like a win for Hanks. He should be nominated and I think he will be, but a win is a tall order.
It looks good for Pitt at the minute because he has the strongest film by far, but I don’t think that alone is enough to get him the Oscar. And let’s not forget he has already won.
It’d better if a veteran/overdue actor, like dafoe or alda, or younger ones like LaBeouf, Chalamet or Brown won instead. I think if Dafoe is nominated again, it would be a third time in a row and that would seal it for his overdue narrative. His performance seems stronger than TFP and this could be his time.
I would be very happy with a Dafoe win. I remain skeptical because the Academy rarely goes for films like The Lighthouse but if he makes the cut, he will definitely be in it to win it.
As a producer. I don’t think that would really register with people thinking he deserved an acting Oscar, which is its own special distinction.
I am just saying there is no urgency to reward him another Oscar. And plenty of Academy members know he won an Oscar, even if they don’t know for what.
HARRIET is said to be a flop, which is sad news. Kasi Lemmons once made a great movie, Eve’s Bayou, criminally-ignored by Oscar. Debbie Morgan should have nominated for her exquisite performance. HARRIET needs to be the brilliant film and Cynthia Erivo seems to be ready for her fist Oscar nomination and win. But it seems to be not that good.
To be fair, Erivo’s performance garnered unanimous praise, it’s just the film around her that critics seem to be lukewarm on. She is a film newcomer in the lead race so obviously she would have needed an acclaimed film to support a viable campaign designed to get her the gold but if Fox Searchlight adjusts their expectations and aims for just scoring the nomination, already a huge accomplishment for a newcomer, she may still make the top5 in the end.
her praise isn’t all that strong, though. It’s basically “erivo is great but movie sucks”. it isn’t type of priase Zelly is garnering which is “movie is by numbers but OMG Zellwegger holy shit wow OMG”. Erivo doesn’t have 1/16 of that praise. JLo is praised more than she.
I agree that Judy/Zellweger are faring way better with critics than Harriet/Erivo. Former has flat out raves for the central performance and OK notices for the film itself, while latter has great notices on the central performance even if not necessarily raves while the film is getting the “missed opportunity” treatment.
I think that Renee’s gonna win like Malek. AMPAS will give it to Judy Garland for Renee is so convincing.
Except it won’t be like Malek because she actually sings, and as a beloved legend, putting herself way out there for criticism. And she nailed it.
Even better!
Kasi also made “Talk to me” with Don Cheadle and that movie and the acting was great — and greatly overlooked.
I always find it amazing that people in these comments tell Sasha, who has seen the movies, what she SHOULD be predicting when most likely the commenters have never see them.
Scarlett J does not seem to be getting the same raves her co star Driver is getting. She has a stronger film than Zellweger but Renee has the narrative and the role.
Many critics have Driver, ScarJo and Dern all winning. There is just no way that happens unless it’s a clean sweep with at least Picture and Screenplay. And I don’t see that happening. I’d say Driver is best bet at a win followed by Dern and then SarJo.
Agreed.
Also, while I am completely sure the leads delivered brilliant performances, I don’t see either of them winning, simply based on precedent. They are both still very young, this would be their first time in the lead race so there just won’t be any kind of urgency to give them the Oscar already. Could happen, but it sure would surprise me. I think the film’s best shot at an acting Oscar is the legendary Laura Dern who sure af should win her first Oscar right about now.
P.S. I just realised real life couple Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) and Greta Gerwig (Little Women) could easily win their respective screenplay categories in the same year AND both could end up in Best Director, as well. That would be quite the Oscar story.
You’re likely right. Dern May be the best bet at a win. She also is having a stellar year with other roles like BLL and Little Women.
Possible regarding Baumbach and Gerwig. I am just not sold on Little Women yet. It’s been rehashed many times and none of them landed big with awards. Maybe this one is different.
Little Women needs to start screening as soon as possible otherwise the perception will be that it is Mary, Queen of Scots : expected to be great but ultimately only good (at best).
I’m not either and it looks like 1917 is the real deal. So possible late in the game breakout.
Let’s wait for reviews. I’m sure 1917 is great but reactions from first industry screenings are misleading af.
true
“They are Both still very young”
Lol, so were Rami Malek and Eddie Redmayne when they won their Oscars. Redmayne beat veteran Michael Keaton who was almost double his age in 2015. Driver will be 36 if he wins the Oscar, Malek was 37 in february 2019. They (ScarJo and Driver) might not win after all, but it won’t be because of their age
Not a good comparison because both Malek and Redmayne won for very flashy, very Oscar-friendly biopic roles while the Johansson/Driver duo is in the race with ordinary fictional characters.
Then you should have used this argument instead of a not valid one
I didn’t feel the need to spell out the obvious for you. I was clearly wrong.
Casey Affleck (2016) worn for a very ordinary fictional character.
yeha, young argument isn’t good. AMPAS awards young first-timers if they fall in love with them. It’s really simple. Sometimes actors win for body of work, sometimes for a specific role that everyone falls in love with, sometimes for narrative everyone falls in love with (Maconaissance). You can’t tell from miles away which way the wind will blow.
I think Driver has good chances. Academy loves biopic and he’s not playing a real Life person. But Rick Dalton and The Joker (main threats) do not exist either.
I’d say that, atm, it looks like Phoenix and Driver race but we know televised awards will decide it.
However good I believe she is in Us, I don’t see Nyong’o getting nominated for a role like that, in a movie like that. Us is no Get Out, I don’t think it’ll get much love after the surprising success of Peele’s first film.
If the film does well, then she might get nominated. It’s just difficult to get a nominated for a horror film if it’s a strong contender. We saw that with Toni Collete last year.
Hereditary – however excellent (IMO) and very well received not to mention a good b.o. success (facts) – was too extreme a movie to get Oscar attention. Horror movies in general struggle, let alone strong and extremely dark/violent ones such as Hereditary. Collette was never really in play at this type of awards.
Yeah, that’s true. It has to be BP film to get any attention in the major categories.
That’s a shame, since Nyong’o arguably had more to execute compared to Daniel Kaluuya. She’s due for a 2nd nom, despite appearing in a handful of high-profile productions since her win for 12 Years a Slave.
I agree, even if I haven’t seen most of the other contenders (only Johansson, which is great and deserves a nom) as of now I’d nominate Nyong’o without a doubt. But I believe there are too many more Oscar-friendly roles coming for her to get in. The movie in general (Us) won’t have much of an impact on the Academy I’m afraid. I’d be happy to be surprised!
I would put Scarlett Johansson as the front runner. Marriage Story will likely get a bunch of nods. She also has the highly acclaimed JoJo Rabbit. She has made money for Hollywood, but has never won.
“Highly acclaimed” Jojo Rabbit? I don’t think so. Probably “crowd-pleaser” is more appropriate. But yes, exposure will definitely help Johansson get her long-deserved Oscar nod.
Asian Americans in general are overdue in Hollywood. The universal depiction of the Grandmother/granddaughter relationship is powerful and moving.
A Supporting nom for the esteemed Shuzhen Zhou would be well-deserved.
If I Nominated for Best Actress 2019:
(90 new releases seen as of comment)
…..
— Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
— Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
— Florence Pugh (Midsommar)
— Emma Thompson (Late Night)
— Tao Zhao (Ash Is Purest White)
I’m interested to see other opinions here. 65 films seen
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
Adèle Haenel and Noémie Merlant (co-leads in Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose)
US was convoluted crap.
Why did you find it convoluted?
yes but no more than nonsense that was Midsommar. The attempts to pass that boring BS as some misunderstood masterpiece are really ridiculous. when the only scene from your horror movie that everyone is talking about is an awkward sex scene that had the audience ROTFL, you know wires crossed somewhere.
I was about to comment “Every year they always say ‘It’s a strong year for women'” but then I clicked the link and I saw the rest of the long headline.
So never mind.
Good way to get me to click the link lol.
I read that the turn of the tide in last year’s race was that voting actresses aspired to a role like Olivia Coleman’s. Nobody wanted to be “the wife”…
So, Julianne Moore and Mary Kay Place don’t have a prayer? That’s a shame.
I just saw the list of best actress in the last 20 years without BP nomination and I can’t find any case comparable to Zellweger. If Judy isn’t a strong contender she’s not going to win her second oscar only because of her performance.
I think it ticks all the boxes and Zellweger is not trying to win a second in lead. Johansson is her only real opponent so her chances are very good.
I’m skeptical that The Farewell will be able to maintain the stamina to keep momentum until the voting period. Which could hurt Awkwafina’s chances. Alfre Woodard is said to be incredible in Clemency, but this is another situation where she would likely be the film’s only nomination. I don’t see the Academy getting behind The Aeronauts when there are more “important” seeming options. And as phenomenal as Nyong’o is in Us, that film didn’t have the same zeitgeist moment as Get Out. Not impossible to get nominated but surely an uphill battle.
So on paper it seems like Zellweger, Johansson, Ronan, Erivo, and Theron. If Little Women or Bombshell fail, then Ronan and/or Theron could slip out. But those seem like a solid 5 at the moment.
I really wish Fox Searchlight would campaign Thomasin McKenzie in supporting for Jojo Rabbit since I don’t think she can make the cut in lead against actresses who truly dominate their films. (For my money she was still the performance of the year last year in Leave No Trace…and no I’m not going to stop talking about it lol)