The Irishman has now had its first screening at the New York Film Festival. It was also screened for a group of critics and journalists at the same time in Los Angeles. So far, the tweet reactions have been positive – about as good as it gets with a thing like this. There are two competing forces in this film – one that points to a potential future, and one that is very much rooted in the past. Though no reviews are allowed until after 5pm, I can say that anything actor-driven to this degree with a cast of this caliber is immediately in play at both the Oscars and SAG. Robert De Niro, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino lead the sterling ensemble, along with Harvey Keitel, Bobby Cannavale, and Ray Romano, to name just a few.
THE IRISHMAN: Pacino unhinges his jaw and swallows this thing whole like a python choking down a gazelle carcass, berserker mode king shit
— Charles Bramesco (@intothecrevasse) September 27, 2019
THE IRISHMAN is undeniably a 209-minute film. Brimming with actual cinematography and performances, it’s a motion picture made by a team of filmmakers that can certainly be described as existent. Truly one of the films 2019 has to offer.
— Kern (@kernetcetera) September 27, 2019
Thrilled to say that THE IRISHMAN is a tour de force. A raw meditation on legacy with impressive CGI that rarely distracted save the six or seven scenes where they accidentally aged the actors down to what I would guess is six or seven months old. Another Scorsese masterpiece.
Clint Eastwood has also announced his film Richard Jewell will get a December release date. The story of the wrongly accused man will land on December 13, with Paul Walter Hauser playing Jewell, also starring Sam Rockwell and Kathy Bates. How will that figure in? Hard to say.
For The Irishman, right now we’re looking at a potentially 8-11 nomination movie:
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actor
Supporting Actor X2 (Pesci and Pacino)
Production Design
Cinematography
Editing
Costumes
Possibly Original Score
Possibly Visual Effects
Possibly Costumes
Possibly Sound MixingSo, where does The Irishman fit into the race right now? Here is my own personal take on that:
Picture
1 – The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit
4 – Marriage Story
5 – Parasite
6 – Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7 – Ford V. Ferrari
8 – The Two Popes
9 – WavesThen there are other films that are floating around, like The Farewell, Uncut Gems, Joker, and maybe even Judy, but overall, we’re still waiting for the big ones still left to see, namely:
1917
Little Women
Richard Jewell
Queen & SlimBest Picture is by no means set – this is still very much a spitballing kind of thing, as we should all remember from last year’s First Man flatline. Anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed. We just have reactions from people, reviews and in one case – with Tarantino’s film, good box office.
How does it land? Right now, it seems to land as a major player:
Best Actor:
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix, JokerNext tier:
Christian Bale, Ford V. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The ReportBest Actress:
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Thomasin McKenzie, JoJo Rabbit
Lupita Nyong’o, UsNext tier:
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Elizabeth Moss, Her Smell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Mary Kay Place, DianeSupporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two PopesNext tier:
Matt Damon, Ford V. Ferrari
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Waves
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Ray Liotta, Marriage StorySupporting Actress:
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Taylor Russell, Waves
Annette Bening, The ReportThe Irishman’s reception will be interesting to witness. This is the last festival stop before the AFI and after that, the awards start a-tumbling down.
We have your BP and BD winner here, folks. No way they are going to deny this. Already has near unanimous praise.
Actor is between Phoenix, DeNiro and maybe Price
Actress is between Zellweger (seems a lock for now) and Johansson
Supporting Actor is for Pitt, maybe one of the Irishman
Supporting Actress is between Dern and Johansson
That’s it
If Mendes and Deakins pulled off this very ambitious concept, 1917 could easily come last minute and turn the entire Oscar race upside down for all we know. We have a few others who could upend early predictions upon arrival (timely Bombshell, Eastwood’s Richard Jewell, pedigree-heaven Little Women). The early frontrunners are all deserving but let’s just wait for the whole picture before we claim we have “locks” and “winners” already.
I am SHOCKED that the Eastwood film is going to be ready by the end of the year. I live in Atlanta and have a couple of friends who worked on it (I even hung out with Jon Hamm for a couple of hours while he was here filming it) and that movie JUST wrapped shooting.
That’s Eastwood for you, he never spends a lot of time in post, I think he delivered Million Dollar Baby for a similar release date with a similar shooting schedule.
True. I hadn’t thought about that. This is the first film of his that I’m legitimately excited about seeing in a long time. I didn’t live in Atlanta during the Olympics but we were close and I remember all of that happening. They even filmed it at the actual Centennial Olympic Park.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq4t3f6LmDA
There are so many cool things that can (and probably will) happen
this year, that I already feel like the season is over. I mean it’s the
year when:
– DeNiro, Pacino and Pesci can be nominated for the same movie.
– DiCaprio and Pitt can be nominated for the same movie
– Scorsese will be nominated along with Tarantino in the same category
– Joaquin Phoenix might get nominated for playing The Joker
– Noah Baumach might finally win a well deserved screenplay Oscar
– Scarlett Johansson might score her first nomination and win
– Jonathan Pryce might score his first nomination (how this man still doesn’t have a single Oscar nod is beyond me)
– Tom Hanks might get his first nomination since 2001 (after two serious snubs)
– Anthony Hopkins might get his first nomination since 1998
– Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite might get 4 nominations just like Amour did
(minus one that went to Riva, but hell, you never know if by some chance
Song Kang-Ho doesn’t make a suprise upset in lead or supporting. I
wouldn’t rule out Parasite’s chances at the SAG Awards for Ensemble)
I could go on with Deakins going for his second win, Sandler and the
Safdie Brothers, Eastwood making a late entry MDB-style, Zellweger and
Eddie Murphy making a comeback, Almodovar and Banderas, Soderbergh’s
Laundromat, Riz Ahmed flying under the radar for Heavy Metal, and so on
and so on. And all of this is happening in the same year. What a time to
be alive 🙂
Even if one quarter of these things happen, I’m already a happy man this season 🙂
Yeah, it’s shaping up to be one of the best seasons we have had in a long time. I also see a master v pupil story. Scorsese v Tarantino, De Niro v DiCaprio, and Hopkins v Pitt.
Yeah its shaping up to be one hell of a year! One thing I’m really hopeful for is Thomas Newman finally winning an Oscar (after 13 attempts) for Best Score for 1917!
Yeah, that would be great.
Man, this is gonna be a hell of a year
I got the feeling Ford vs Ferrari is this year’s “First Man”
I got this funny feeling
Bad BO did for First Man. F V F has gone awol before it opens. The reviews are unexciting. Still, it has big players who can push it. But it’s not looking too good at the moment.
I think you are forgetting to include Tom Hooper’s Cats in your films to watch… it will get nominations in many CATegories. : )
I would laughing my head off if I was head of Netflix. The Netflix thing might be an obstacle to win BP, but they have already won BP and lost a tight race for BP in their first real attempt at Oscar campaigning. The reality is that they have already won the war even if they lost the first big battle. No matter what happens in BP, their name will be associated with quality. The quality is staggering to be hold this season. They and indie companies like A24 and Plan B are holding the bar up high. And who is their main competition this year? Amazon, another streaming company. Major studios no longer produce quality films anymore.
I meant to add that they were very close to winning with a black and white film in foreign language. They comfortably BD and won BP at BAFTA and BFCA. It wasn’t eligible at GG, but it very well would have since it won BD there.
Do you know when I realised that Netflix wasn’t bad for the film industry? when great artists like Scorsese, Coens and Cuaron were queuing up to work with them. Who knows more about what’s good for their industry than the artists themselves? The resistant to Netflix is coming from major studios, and Spielberg is with them. It’s not coming from filmmakers.
I think the resistance is coming from hardcore traditionalists fearing the worst. Netflix is proving that its not interested in cutting quality for commercial success which is something the studios could learn from, its all too common to have studios restricting filmmakers from fully realising their vision which leads to schizophrenic films I have to admit.
Netflix dropped 160M for The Irishman and gave Scorcese free rein to make however long he wanted the film.I don’t think there’s any way they’ll recuperate that budget cost or potential marketing and Oscar campaign costs. But, that’s not what they’re concerned about. They’ve already won. They’ve got multiple Oscar contenders and between Marriage Story and The Irishman, above the line winners are very likely.
If they keep releasing their most prestigious movies in theaters like now, I’ll have absolutely no problem with them.
“Downton Abbey”:107M globally in 1 week. 58M domestic.
Looking at 100M+ domestic and 200M+ worldwide. VERY impressive numbers.
A sequel is definitely happening.
It seems to me it’s done what it was set to do and has given them a handsome profit. However, I don’t think it goes beyond that. Might get a acting nomination, but anything beyond that is unlikely.
My guess is its best case scenario is 3 nominations : supporting actress, costume design, art direction. For a filler BP nod Focus would have to campaign very, very hard and while not out of the realm of possibilities, it would be definitely an uphill climb.
I think Baumbach is going to dominate Original Screenplay. The guy already has a big reputation for his writing and Marriage Story’s writing is clear miles better than Tarantino’s Hollywood which is good but nothing special. Also, Tarantino has already won twice for a great film in 1995 and a not so great film in 2013. The Irishman looks to have the Adapted Screenplay sewn up already too. Both these two big Netflix films are like to win an acting award too. They are both big favourites to win BP. That leaves Hollywood relying on Tarantino winning Best Director to stand any chance of winning BP. However, director is the major award that is most linked to critical awards and it’s far from certain that Tarantino will be winning most of them. Birdman and TKS were the only films to win against critics choice of best director this decade, but they were winning screenplay and acting too.
Agreed with Baumbach, he almost has original screenplay in the bag. Although, I’m still not sold on Tarantino winning director, I see Bong Joon-Ho has a potential dark horse that could win it.
I don’t think he can win Oscar BD because he is not that a big name and the only director to win for a foreign language film Cuaron this year. Parasite has to hit big first with Academy. I think he will probably get BD nomination but a win would a be pushing too far, at least for now. I am not sure who is going to be critics’ choice for BD, but it could be him or Scorsese.
Almodovar can.
I think you are right about Original Screenplay. Marriage Story is bound to be a player with a lot of nominations in main categories with no clear path to actually winning any of them. Except Original Screenplay, that could be its reward. Of course an acting win or two can easily happen but for now I think its best shot is in Original Screenplay.
Yes, The Irishman is definitely the early frontrunner in Adapted, the only film that could challenge it is Little Women IF it is great and the industry wants to reward Gerwig after the Lady Bird shut out. It could be also quite the narrative to see a real life couple win the writing categories in the same year. It shouldn’t matter of course, but sure would make quite the story nonetheless. And Hollywood is nothing if not a sucker for a good story.
I agree. However, I am not expecting to much from Little since it’s been done many times before. Still, it could get lot’s of nominations, but a win seems unlikely.
Marriage Story actually has a clear path – Supporting Actress for Laura Dern. It’s not a competitive category. It’s a showy role. She’s a popular veteran in Hollywood.
She is definitely a very strong contender there but until we see what happens with Bombshell and Little Women, not to mention Jennifer Lopez’s potentially massive Oscar campaign, I am hesitant to claim Dern is the frontrunner. I am rooting for her for what it’s worth.
She’s also a big name in the Academy. It’s the perfect storm to award her.
Agreed. I just can’t see Tarantino winning Screenplay over Baumbach. Best Picture is Marriage Story vs The Irishman in my opinion.
I think that in the end “1917” can crash the party and win Best Picture and Best Director. First screenings call it a “masterpiece for the ages”. Besides, add this to the Roger Deakins cinematography, the one take shot, and the fact that doesn’t have the netflix barrier.
I’m predicting 1917 to get the exact same 8 nominations Dunkirk had 2 years ago (Picture, Director, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score and both Sounds). I think Thomas Newman may finally win an Oscar and I wouldn’t be surprised if Deakins also wins a second one.
PARASITE 100% RT 92 MC
Pain and Glory 95% RT 82 MC
They BOTH can get in multiple categories.
Especially in directing and writing. BP, based on precedent, will be trickier but directing and/or writing nods for the most acclaimed foreign language films of the year do happen often.
It also kinda depends on what the big English-speaking players are. Last year, Cuarón and Pawlikowski could both get in directing because things like Farrelly and Cooper were relatively easy to dismiss for the “snooty” branch. This year, Scorsese and Tarantino feel like surefire nominees there, and Baumbach looks strong, but if Gerwig or Mendes or even Eastwood crash the party in a big way, it could get trickier for international films to get there.
I don’t think ANYTHING from Once upon a time in Hollywood is locked by any means. They can really snub it completely and Hollywood would just shrug. I think that the best chance of OuatiH is Original Screenplay and I just don’t see it beating Parasite or Pain and Glory unless foreign language votes split and QT prevails.
Oh surely, there are no locks in September, but if Hollywood and The Irishman don’t get derailed on the way and do arrive at the Oscars with many nominations, I really can’t see the directors’ branch snubbing them.
Who would snub Scorsese? I mean, you might as well not have a directors award if you snub Scorsese. The Academy has snubbed him before in terms of a win, but not a nomination for a strong film like The Irishman.
I still think Parasite is on the lead for Picture and Almodovar for Director, and BOTH are going to be nominated at Original Screenplay, like happened in 2002 with both Almodovar and (back then) Cuarón being nominated there.
I think Parasite will likely get Picture and screenplay. It could also get director depending on whose else is contention. I think Scorsese, Tarantino and Baumbach are likely nominees.
This is year is going to be a humdinger in the acting categories. Pesci vs Pacino is going to be awesome. I’d love it if Pacino won, but I would be happier if Pesci won. Nothing would tickle me more than seeing Pesci win. De Niro vs Driver vs Phoenix would be great too.
Random thoughts:
1-At what point do we start wondering if Little Women isn’t that great? It seems really strange it hasn’t been at any of these festivals. We’re in crunch time here. I might be wrong and it’s great…just seems odd to me.
2-With Pitt, Pacino, Pesci, Hopkins, and Hanks is it possible we have our supporting actor lineup in pencil? Yes yes yes there are other great performances by lots of actors but do any of them really have what it takes to crack those five? MAYBE Dafoe but at this point I have my doubts. Several months left so I’m sure those five won’t be the final but at this moment it seems tough to think anyone can crack that lineup. We shall see.
3-Ford v Ferrari is still hanging in there on Gold Derby predictions with an average of about 6th spot for Best Pic. I am a bit surprised by that and hope that it remains in the game even if it doesn’t win anything.
4-I know Two Popes is getting raves not only for the movie but particularly for Pryce and Hopkins. I don’t see three Netflix movies getting a BP nom and I am not sure I would even predict Pryce to make the final five either. Blasphemy I know! Best Actor looks to be down to 7 for 5 spots: DeNiro, Dicaprio, Phoenix, Driver, Pryce, Bale, and Banderas. I think three are penciled in: DeNiro, Leo, and Driver. The academy loves them some Christian Bale so I would put him in. Phoenix missing just doesn’t seem plausible. So that leaves Pryce and Banderas on the outside looking in. I’m likely wrong.
I really hope Joaquin Phoenix gets in, he´s my favourite actor of his generation.
I just realised that four of those listed in supporting actor have won Oscars in the 1990’s. Hanks twice, Hopkins and Pacino won in leads and Pesci won in support. It makes sense for Pesci to win in support again. That would thrill me.
I don’t think that Little Women not being ready for festivals is an automatic bad sign. We’ll see what happens. Some of late non-festival entries sink, some swim not necessarily because of quality but because they have shortened time in which they are seen and campaigned. However, actress fields are weak so Ronan and Pugh should be good for also run noms. Director is stacked, though, and the movie would have to be extraordinary success on several levels for Gerwig to break in at someone’s expense.
Phoenix missing would be a terrible PR. he’s praised to high heaven so if AMPAS allows itself to snub him due to manufactured controversy backlash would be like TDK/Nolan snub or worse.
1 – I wouldn’t say it is in trouble just yet but it is a curious (= suspicious) case nonetheless. I guess it could have been still in post hence the skipping of all fall festivals OR they could be just pulling a Revenant and want the voters to see it last so it is freshest in their minds thus peaks at the perfect time. BUT more often than not arriving this late in the game is not a good sign (Mary, Queen of Scots; Welcome to Marven etc.). I hope I’m wrong because I want it to be great, the cast is epic.
2 – We very well could have the quintet already. I would say that maybe one from the Alan Alda, Shia Labeouf, Sterling K. Brown, Timothee Chalamet quartet could also figure in there somehow but it will be tough to go up against any of those five legends.
3 – I’ve always seen it as expertly executed commercial fare but I could be wrong. I’m not predicting it for anything big at the moment.
4. Someone said it here earlier that The Two Popes could be like Can You Ever Forgive Me last year : two acting nods and one for writing but no BP. I think that person was right, now that Netflix already has two major players in BP I don’t see them securing a slot for a third one, as well. Agree on the 7 in Best Actor, on paper Chalamet garnered rave reviews for his performance in The King but Netflix already has their hands full when it comes to this category (DeNiro, Driver, Pryce) so this probably won’t be his year. Having said that, I couldn’t pick a five from those 7, all have strong arguments going for them for now.
Wait remind me what is Hanks’ movie? lol I thought about it for 2 straight minutes. Have you seen Two Popes? Is it really good?
Hollywood and Irishman will sweep the nominations and Irishman will win tons
Epics are back!
Supporting actor has suddenly become a race between Pacino and Pesci. The raves are huge. Pesci is a legend scene stealer, so it’s not surprising he delivers after a long time away from acting. Pacino might his get revenge for The Godfather after all these years and win a supporting Oscar against De Niro. The real actors are back this year and it seems some proper films too. It’s great stuff!
I´m wondering if the de-aging technology might hurt the “Irishman´s” actors chances. I mean, I rather see a win for Visual Effects.
I thought that might be a problem, but the raves indicate otherwise.
I don’t think The Two Popes is getting nominated for BP. Netflix already has two locks. Could they have a third nominee? I can see Popes being this year’s Can You Ever Forgive Me – getting acting and writing noms but missing BP.
So big question is Pacino the big supporting contender or is there a chance for a double supporting nom including Pesci? Particularly skiing people who have seen it but I’d anyone has read lots of reviews and has thoughts feel free to chime in too. Also I assume Paquin isn’t happening because I’ve heard very little about her?
It’s unlikely they would have convinced Pesci to come out of retirement if he didn’t have a big role to get stuck into. The film is over 3 and half hours long, so there is more than enough time for him and Pacino to have big impacts. Also, Pesci doesn’t need as much time as most actors because he is a legendary scene stealer. I thought the raves would be just for Pacino and he has seems to be the stand out judging by the trailer. However, it seems Pesci has as much if not more raves than Pacino.
I read that in the end, she is barely in the film… which makes some logic, her character is played by her and a child actress, it seems… unless she has moments to shine/Oscar clips, she will be deemed just an inch more than a cameo, and her performance is already outshined by Pacino, Pesci and De Niro, so she may just pick up a SAG ensemble nom or win (which is no small feat to add to her already ecclectic Awards collection)
I’m sorry but how exactly is Florence Pugh’s unforgettable turn in Midsommar not even mentioned? Best performance by a lead actress I’ve seen all year. If work like this goes unnoticed, we’re fucked. In a fair world, Florence would sweep the entire season.
She was brilliant in Midsommar.
She really was and from Fighting With My Family to this, she kinda blew my mind as of lately and I was already super impressed with her work in Lady Macbeth, I mean she should have earned AT LEAST a nomination for that performance. A phenomenal talent. Even in utter trash such as Malevolent, she’s always a fascinating presence on screen.
Nobody saw that movie.
What the fuck are you even talking about… An indie film with a 9 million budget that grossed almost 30 million domestically alone is a hit and the whole thing has nothing to do with her work being talked about or not. I can easily think of BP winning films that earned far less.
that’s still too small for AMPAS to care and her reviews were not stronger than Collette who couldn’t make it either. Plus, there’s horror performance with more acclaim in an actual big movie – Lupita in Us. genre movies have to work harder. Midsommar neither has reviews (steep drop from Hereditary that also wasn’t AMPAS thing) nor boxoffice (steep drop from Hereditary which itself wasn’t a boxoffice miracle). I get that you want the actress to happen but she has a good shot in supporting for Little Women so all good, no?
“All good, no?” No, nope at all. Of course I’ll be glad to see phenomenal talent she has getting finally recognized for Little Women, which obviously seems her “best shot”. As a genuine cinephile though, I obviously don’t want to see a raw talent like hers, worthy of getting nominated for work as daring as the one she displays in films like Midsommar and Lady Macbeth getting recognized for something that seems as “safe” as Little Women. I haven’t seen the film clearly but yeah, one can clearly see which films is most interesting artistically speaking and which allows her talent to shine more. And it was that “Nobody saw that movie” stupid comment of yours that made me reply, not the possibility of Florence getting a nom for Little Women, which still isn’t a given anyway.
technically, nobody saw it and you know exactly what I meant. Nobody who can give her a push saw it and nobody will see it for it isn’t that kind of movie. Plus, A24 has stronger contender in The Farewell and Awkwafina. Also, it’s your personal opinion. I thought the movie was utter trash. She was good but I didn’t care for anyone in that boring crap that didn’t even look like Sweden, lol. Everyone was so vapid and unlikable so I definitely wasn’t impressed and don’t think anyone will be robbed if they don’t get awards attention.
I respect your opinion but I’m sorry that I can’t take seriously the opinion of anyone claiming a film of such undeniable artistic qualities like Midsommar is “utter trash” and “boring crap”. Oh well…
artistic qualities of this movie are far from undeniable. 72 on Metascore (critics) and 6.4 audience (consisted of Aster fans for the rest stirred clear of “From the director of Hereditary” so that it couldn’t muster a higher score is telling). That’s pretty low so neither side was impressed with it. In comparison, Hereditary had 87 MC (critics) 7.4 audience score. So while the movie didn’t shit the bed it was a significant drop in quality from previous entry in both critics and audience opinion.
She is great but if Colette couldn’t get nominated she can’t. Sorry it’s just the sad truth of the Oscars
I know and I didn’t want to mention Toni’s haunting work in last Hereditary’s again because I’ve done it so many times already. Still sucks, though. And a nom for Florence would kinda make up for how much they fucked up with the Toni Collette situation last year. I mean I can’t believe last year’s Best Lead Actress and Actor performances (Toni Collette – Hereditary / Ethan Hawke – First Reformed) weren’t even nominated at the end of the day.
Yeah the problem is it just won’t happen – as great as it would be and as much as it would make up for previous fuck ups it just won’t. The one silver lining is is theres always the chance she will be nominated for little women and then you can pretend it was for Midsommar
I know and you’re correct on both. Still, I’m always drawn to work as challening as Midsommar is and the whole “well, at least she has a part in another Oscar bait film” is always a letdown when every art lover knows which film allows her talent to shine more. Anyway, I’ll obviously be glad if she ends up being nominated for anything, I just feel like films like Midsommar, Hereditary and First Reformed always have to be mentioned when we talk about awards and shit even if the chances of them actually getting recognized are close to zero.
She won’t be nominated for one simple reason. It’s a comedy.
Pain and Glory (Almodovar ‘19): Holy shit. Best actor is gonna be stacked and potentially heartbreaking when one of these exceptional performances don’t make it. Almodovar and Banderas God-level. (A-)
I have been saying all along since its release and specially after my 2nd viewing. Banderas might be the one to beat in the end. I am kind of expecting him to be the critical darling of Film Critics Circles awards, specially after Parasite demanding attention for Foreign Film, they might concentrate – as Cannes – praise and love on the extremely likeable Banderas. My Best Actor line up right now is…
1. Phoenix
2. Banderas
3. de Niro
4. Driver
5. di Caprio
What I’m thinking after The Irishman dropped yesterday …
Best Picture
THE IRISHMAN
1917
ONCE UPOIN A TIME …
MARRIAGE STORY
LITTLE WOMEN (I think it’s going to be special)
BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
FORD V FERRARI
THE TWO POPES
PARASITE
(I think JOJO RABBIT just misses and gets 2-3 noms elsewhere)
Best Director
THE IRISHMAN
1917
ONCE UPON A TIME …
MARRIAGE STORY
PARASITE
Best Actor
PHOENIX
DRIVER
DENIRO
PRYCE
DICAPRIO
Best Actress
ZELLWEGER
JOHANSSON
RONAN
THERON
WOODARD
Best Supporting Actor
PITT
PACINO
HANKS
BALE
DAFOE
Best Supporting Actress
DERN
LOPEZ
BENING
PUGH
SMITH, MAGGIE
And I see THE IRISHMAN, 1917 and ONCE UPON A TIME all getting 8+ noms.
1917 is the most interesting film in the big Oscar race. I am still not sold on The Irishman as BP winner because of the Netflix thing, so I think this film has the potential to take it all. Also, Deakins cinematography is always excellent and he is working with Mendez who seems to be a magnet for great cinematography. His first two films won Oscar cinematography and Skyfall with Deakins was excellent. The one take for an epic war film is going to be mad and gives Deakins the challenge to really wow. It could be Birdman all over again. I don’t think there’s much competition in cinematography so far.
Its not a good war movie, but even if it were , voters are not interested in an obscure battle in a war a hundred years ago ; the changing voter pool will never go for a movie like this for BP .. mark my words .. I don’t know what will win BP but I know what wont
How do you know it’s not a good war movie when you haven’t seen it yet? Let’s just wait before we dismiss it altogether. I think the challenge it creates give it a chance and it’s unlikely to be like any other war movie we might have seen. Let’s see.
Have you seen Galipolli ? That’s what this is like but much inferior .. most people have never even heard of the third battle of Ypres in 1917 , nor do they care cos its so long ago .. moreover I have no idea why you think this movie is unique ? .. a movie about trying to stop a military attack that sure to be a suicide mission has been done before such as the charge of the light brigade etc .. I was bored just watching the trailer Yaaaawn
All that resistance about a film you haven’t even seen yet. Let’s just wait and seem, shall we? Also, it’s the Academy which decides and they haven’t decided anything yet. I don’t think we have ever seen an epic war film in one take, and I am fascinated how Mendes is going to pull it off. It will be something, at least. We will soon see whether it is good or not.
Joker will get a best pic nomination for sure
Not for sure but it’s talked about unlike Ford vs Ferrari and Popes are going to be acting/script play only. Netflix has their hands full with Marriage Story and Irishman. Three nominees by the same studio are unlikely.
If Phoenix has a chance of winning, then Joker must get a nom. The last time an actor won Best Actor without the movie being a BP nominee was like in 2009. Hell the Academy even gave Bohemian Rhapsody (62% on Rottentomatoes) a nomination for BP so that Malek would win
When I noticed BoRhap was nominated I started to suspect Malek was going to be the chosen one that year.
I thought Malek would win the moment they released the promo of him and he looked spot on like Freddie. And then the trailer cemented the movie was going to be a very big hit (but nobody predicted 900M global take). Sometimes first instinct is the right one.
I think either Phoenix or Driver is winning, so Joker is a lock for a nomination. If not, Phoenix is not taking the Oscar home
Joker is beginning its release so that will be very important for its future.
I still think Banderas might win in the end. But that will be marked by Film Critics getting him in position…
I think it is risky to exclude Banderas from Actor. The Academy likes comebacks (Banderas), and it also likes Almodovar a lot.
I think he will battle for fifth spot, probably with Pryce. Banderas has the prestige Cannes win, while Pryce has the big British contingent in the Academy. The latter has the stronger film and can ride on the coattails of Hopkins who looks certain to be nominated.
Pryce might be kicked out by Netflix itself. They are striking GOLD with The Irishman, given buzz, so they may concentrate in de Niro getting his 3rd Oscar and therefore they may downplay Pryce’s chances given how strong competition is, with overdue Phoenix with a likely smash hit and Banderas being an overdue Hollywood star liked by everyone and being maybe the only way to reward Almodovar this year, for maybe, his best film
I think they will try to push it but, I don’t think it makes a difference in the acting categories. The big names with the big films will be nominated, but I am not sure about that last spot between Banderas and Pryce.
Best Actor is probably down to six at the moment : Phoenix, DeNiro, Driver, DiCaprio, Banderas and Pryce. And Netflix is probably putting all their muscle behind DeNiro and Driver, leaving Pryce in a peculiar position. Chalamet also got rave reviews for a Netflix film but he is 4th in line from the Netflix stable alone so he most likely won’t get a dime of campaign money nor serious consideration for the Oscar top5.
Banderas is my 6th and wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was solidly in the 5.
I can’t say there is too much I disagree with here, except I think The Farewell is well positioned to be a strong player. I am also not sure about Little Women, but even if it’s good I don’t think it has a chance of winning anything big. Maybe a strong supporting actress contenders. I feel The Farewell will be the strong female led and directed film. That’s why I think it has got a great chance of landing in major categories like directing, acting and even screenplay if the competition isn’t too fierce.
I know it often happens, but things feel so male dominated at the
moment. The only overlap between Best Picture and the Best Actress
categories are Marriage Story, JoJo Rabbit, and Waves. I feel like this
leaves room for a strong showing for The Farewell, Little Women, or/and
Bombshell in the Best Actress categories, subsequently breaking into
Best Picture and bumping something like Ford v Ferrari or the Two Popes
(especially if the performances in these films miss out due to the
overcrowding we are already seeing in the Best Actor categories).
More stray thoughts.
The following actors have the benefit of two performances that should garner them some extra goodwill: (speculating on Bombshell and Little Women, but I gather the performances will be discussed despite the success of the films).
Driver: Marriage Story and The Report
Johansson: Marriage Story and JoJo Rabbit
Pitt: OUATIH and Ad Astra
Dern: Marriage Story and Little Women
To a lesser extent:
Al Pacino: The Irishman and OUATIH
Margot Robbie: OUATIH and Bombshell
Florence Pugh: Little Women and Midsommar *she is already stealing scenes in the trailer alone)
Also Marriage Story seems be the closest we’ve been since La La Land to possibly sweep the top 5 categories? A Star is Born were close too had the potential but missed out on Director and almost went home empty handed. The Artist and the King’s Speech didn’t have a Best Actress nomination.
Of course, Baumbach doesn’t have much of a chance at Director at this point, especially with the tendency to split BP and BD lately.
Man that Brad Pitt is overdue narrative didn’t last long did it? Lmao. Here are some other ones that are brewing:
1. Netflix? 3 movies can it be done?
2. Joker. How violent is too violent and will it hurt the film’s chances?
3. 4 women of color in contention for best actress? Can they make history with at least 3 being nominated?
4. Adam sandler and Jlo? Need I say more?
5. Come backs for deniro/pesci/pacino?
6. This one I had no idea until reading the comments for the harriet trailer on YouTube. Many African Americans are outraged and are boycotting harriet because Erivo is British and apparently made negative comments on Twitter about African Americans. This is why I stay far from social media.
7. When that Bombshell drops/ can Charlize Theron stop getting snubbed year after year?!?!?!
just a heads up for the rest of the season: there is no period in “FORD v FERRARI”
I love the fact Driver, DeNiro and Pryce are all in the run for BEST ACTOR, but I don’t believe Netflix will be able to land a nomination for its 3 leading man (and the same for Hopkins, Pacino and Pesci). Sadly, because they seem to deliver some of the year’s finest performances
Keep hearing the M-word from trustworthy. Pacino might be too good/showy not to win. It’s Pacino vs. Pitt and I’m here for it.
By the way two of the tweets you embedded seem like troll bait lol I’m no twitter expect so dont pay no mind
Each time I look at the best supporting actor potential line-up, all I can do is ugly cry out of happiness.
It’s a crazy line-up. So many big names.
Best actor as well for me. Both are some serious best living actor quality lineups
Actor and Supporting actor are crazy strong this year while both actress categories are shockingly weak.
This year is already infinitely better than last year IMO… Usually if I’m less interested in the films I’ll at least be really invested in the people winning the awards, but last year that wasn’t even true for the most part.
It’s infinitely better assuming middle brow dross and politics-over-merit movies don’t crash the part in a big way. We are only in reviews phase, there’s long way to go.
Picture
Director
Actor (DeNiro)
Supporting Actor (Pacino)
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing
holy moly 92 metascore after 20 reviews !!!
Still about the Best Supporting Actress race: many pieces of news are bring back a shocking interview Jennifer Lopes gave in 1998, saying horrible things about Salma Hayek, Cameron Diaz, Winona Ryder, Gwyneth Paltrow and Claire Daines. The topic went viral on twitter. A nomination is (still) possible. But a win? I hope it helps even more Laura Dern wins her very overdue and deserved Oscar.
Everyone and their dog is predicting her as a lock. I wouldn’t predict her for a nom right now.
LOL since when is saying horrible things about Goop a bad thing? Goop is notorious for saying stupid shit and is immensely disliked. if she was liked she’d be known as a respectable actress not Goop, no? Also, if someone wants to cancel Jlo for 1998 opinion, good luck to them. dragging old quotes (everyone has them) to smear a nominee is only going to make her an underdog and bring in sympathy votes. Most people hate cancel culture, they don’t support it.
Well, I think that with the raves and acclaim the film has gained, I am betting on a (not so) surprise nomination for Anna Paquin in the Best Supporting Actress race. Even if the role is not that strong, being the only female in an all male cast, counts a lot. Also, she is a beloved previous Academy Award Winner. If the Academy gave her in the past a surprise win, a surprise nomination is very possible.
Beloved?
This is great news. Awards aside, Scorsese brought together a lot of all-time greats and sounds like they all delivered.
And this is ALL.
A default win for Pitt seemed too good to be true, Al Pacino crashed the race like the iconic speech of Michael Shannon in Take Shelter lol. From these reactions looks the MVP, he has a huge comeback narrative, one of the all time greats, if Irishman is a solid BP contender he’ll be very very hard to beat.
I was thinking about the potential iconic lineup in supporting actor
Brad Pitt
Al Pacino
Tom Hanks
Anthony Hopkins
Christian Bale (I still think if he happens he happens in supporting) or Dafoe.
Maybe even Alan Alda for Marriage Story.
Is it definitely Pacino and not Pesci? Reviews seem split on who they praise more
Really hoping for a Dafoe nomination. “How long have we been on this rock?”
I love that movie and that performance but there’s very little possibility that he’ll actually get nominated for that kind of thing. But he does probably have the single funniest line in any movie this year
Like I said before potential “best living actors” caliber lineups this year
I am loving that this is getting great reviews but I am still skeptical that any Netflix movie gets that many noms. I’d lean more towards 7-8 than 10+. Some on twitter are saying 11 is almost locked and I just can’t get there. Hope I’m wrong. I’m likely wrong. Didn’t Roma get ten noms?
Well, Roma got 10. Doesn’t exactly seem like a stretch that The Irishman could replicate that numbers.
I literally said that. But thanks for reiterating. :-/
I’m sorry, I used Disqus’ “see new comments” feature which doesn’t show edits, so if you edited that in later, probably that’s the reason. But we both thought of the same thing then 😀
So unless critics pull a JOJO RABBIT level of surprise on us (rave tweets followed by lukewarm critical reception), it looks like Netflix has two major players in BP already : THE IRISHMAN and MARRIAGE STORY. That probably means THE TWO POPES will get more serious consideration in other categories or could Netflix actually pull off a trifecta in BP ? I don’t see it but I could be easily wrong.
Also with Scorsese and Eastwood now confirmed, I guess it could be like 2004 all over again : will it be once again down to a Scorsese film with epic scope and a super last minute Eastwood pic about an underdog ? WB must be very confident about RICHARD JEWELL after that first studio screening if they decided to plant this pic in the middle of December to compete with all the major Holiday season tentpoles. Paul Walter Hauser (a true scenestealer in I, Tonya) also should be automatically in consideration in Best Actor, his role ticks a lot of Oscar boxes (likeable real life person victimised by the system).
So now we have three major question marks left : LITTLE WOMEN, BOMBSHELL, 1917.
P.S. The JUDY reviews are much better than expected, sure raves for the central performance were always expected but the film did quite well, too (85 RT, 65 MC). May not be enough for a filler nod in BP but it is sure af enough not to hurt Zellweger’s campaign in any way. Especially if the film becomes an arthouse hit this weekend. I think this could also mean Johansson will be a stronger contender in supporting after all, looks good for both nominations but I think a win in supporting for JOJO RABBIT is her more likely scenario this season.
Talking about Judy I think this is a case where looking at both rt and metacritic together can be illuminating – when you have a middling to good metacritic and a good rt what it says is that people all like your film but nobody loves it and you can see that by looking at the individual reviews – they are mostly 2.5-3/4 type reviews very few raves. That doesn’t bode well for a picture nomination where you need passion. But I agree they are definitely good enough to support Zellweger!
It’s interesting because you compare it to JoJo Rabbit which has a similar level of critical support really but in a completely different way – it has 0/4 reviews and it has 4/4 reviews. That bodes well for it’s chances of a bp nomination because there are people who will push it to the top of their ballots. Just something to remember in terms of reviews themselves are more useful than scores.
Oh a JUDY nod in BP would be absolutely a surprise and most likely due to the popularity of the central performance.
Yeah I think we all agree on that, I just thought it is a really classic example of different ways you can look at critic aggregates since you mentioned them.
Very true.
1917 is not going to win, even if it turns out to be good ; those masterpiece theatre type productions don’t win anymore due to the changing vote pool .. I doubt it’ll be very good anyway and events of WW1 and a 100 years ago don’t resonate with most voters now ; for them 50-60 yrs ago is history
Maybe another win for The Deakins? He deserves it for sure.
A Best Director win is very possible for Scorsese at this point, but honestly, I don’t see The Irishman winning Best Picture. Not just because of the Netflix barrier, but it lack of elements that represents diversity, and which has been a characteristic in the Academy since “Moonlight” won. They have been opting for more sensitive pictures, and a mark in all of them since 2017, is a cast that represents this diversity and presents a strong female character, a strong afro american character, a strong lgbt character. I don’t see the Academy who gave “Moonlight” and “Shape of Water” Best Picture of the year, giving it to “The Irishman”. It is a very important point: since “Moonlight”, all Best Picture winners have these three strong kind of diversity characters. It is also important to consider that the Academy no longer has 6 thousand members – in a time when mostly of them were american – but has now more than 9 thousand voting members, and it is more global than never. I am not saying “The Irishman” can not win, but it looks far from me of the kind of sensitive films the Academy has choosing.
I agree that the voting pool has changed and expanded from the elderly white male ; So what do you see winning then ? Sometimes a movie wins by default with the least flaws
Eh, every movie/director/actor “wins” when raves drop or first award is won. Before The irishman reactions popped, Jojo and Waititi were winners cause TIFF Audience Award (similar taste to AMPAS) with Bong as a spoiler (cause reviews and TIFF Audience Award runner-up). lets see what happens when actual awards are handed out and even then critics ones don’t carry the same weight as televised precursors. There’s also boxoffice, etc.
Everyone wave bye bye to Tarantino, a real film has arrived!
I don’t buy OUATIH as the frontrunner but it is far from out, especially Tarantino in BD. Truth is this film delivered something crucial The Irishman won’t be able to : Box Office. With the Chinese release all confirmed, OUATIH will most likely finish in the 400M range worldwide, just enough to call it a proper hit budget-wise. The Irishman on the other hand, while clearly won’t have trouble being called a masterpiece, will have trouble securing hit status with a 160M price tag and a Netflix kind of theatrical release. Maybe it will be beloved and revered enough that nobody will care about BO in this case, but for now my assumption is some – especially ones on other teams – will.
I actually think OUATIH looks like a front runner now more than before….if the bulk of the academy still isn’t ready to crown a Netflix movie. If they aren’t what better movie to reward than a movie about the industry they know and love set in the city they love in an era they loved.
You’re absolutely right, just like Bradley Cooper beat Cuaron in BD last year. because Star was a much bigger BO juggernaut than Roma. And the BREAKEVEN for Hollywood was always projected at 400. Let’s face it, Hollywood is just like Star last year, way overblown until the real films started coming out and then it turned into just another fart in the wind.
https://media0.giphy.com/media/DFNd1yVyRjmF2/giphy.gif
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8080c65cbd8fd8700a765932b0c63dd78ac4fbc98cb1b5feeb408ba59dc80093.gif
I was talking about Best Picture where Box Office DOES count and Roma DID lose to a lesser film with excellent Box Office hence my assumption The Irishman could lose to a lesser film with traditionally good BO, as well. In BD it isn’t that big of a factor but in BP it absolutely is.
Alright, everyone, post your Top Five Most Anticipated Films for the remainder of the season…
1. Parasite
2. The Lighthouse
3. Joker (for better or worse, the buzz around this film makes me want to see it badly)
4. Waves
5. 1917 (mostly for Deakins and the “one continuous take” thing)
Joker
The Irishman
Parasite
Marriage Story
The Lighthouse
Parasite
The Lighthouse
Joker
Marriage Story
Bombshell
(Parasite already seen (#1 so far))
Downton Abbey (seeing it on Tuesday)
The King
Little Women
1917
Frozen 2
1. Parasite
2. The Souvenir
3. Marriage Story
4. The Irishman
5. The Farewell
Favorite film so far: Once upon a time…in Hollywood
Joker
Star Wars DROSS (to see what trainwreck it’s gonna be)
Marriage Story
1917 (looks super actiony)
Two Popes (looks fun)
Seeing A Hidden Life tomorrow, hence not counting it, otherwise it would be in first place:
1) Parasite
2) Little Women
3) The Irishman
4) Dark Waters (because I have to believe in Haynes)
5) The Farewell
I keep seeing opposing views on who is lead in Ford v Ferrari. Someone mentioned Damon getting more screen time than Bale, but it’s been proven before that the actor with less screen time can win Best Actor while the real lead actor gets a Supporting nom (Training Day). Will the studio make the decision on what categories they are in, and if so, will they announce that?
I honestly think Bale would have a better shot at getting in in Supporting, but Damon might get screwed either way… God forbid we ever have 2 leads nominated from the same movie anymore!!!
If The Irishman wins BP, it will also take BD, so split would not happen this time. I doubt they ignore Scorsese here. With any other movie in Picture, I see a split happening (even with OUATIH).
I can totally see a split giving Marty director but still not being ready to give a Netflix movie best pic so that goes to OUATIH.
I can see one without a split, but this is a crazy scenario. Parasite takes BP and BD.
ONLY if Academy wants to show the world that cinema is truly universal and if they love it as much as audiences and critics have!!!
108 reviews counted and it is still 100% on RT. This never happens, so it would be their most celebrated choice in years.
Parasite has to make some money toi. It’s not even 100 million worldwide yet. Then again, The Irishman won’t reach that number anyway.
Oh wow. I can see it now too. That Netflix thing could still be a thing even with Scorsese. I mean, traditional voters might feel like: ”why would I vote for something people have watched on TV for two months now?”
It is official, the critics are on board : THE IRISHMAN starts at 88 on MC and 100 on RT.
Even though only eight reviews I’m a bit shocked only one 100 and only one other in 90s. All others at 80. Looking at Twitter i was thinking we’d be seeing multiple hundreds out of the gate. EDIT: now there’s 2
It’s still going but it’s now at 90 with 11 reviews – 4 of which are 100s and an extra 3 are in 90s so yeah we are getting multiple 100s right out the gate – 7/11 are in 90s or 100s
Awesome. I still don’t rely on MC for much equating to awards and noms. Inside Llewyn Davis had like 20 100s. Then I was kicked in the nuts.
Obviously this looks to be a sure thing on noms just saying perfect scores don’t mean a huge deal. Or I refuse to let them make me optimistic lol
Oh of course I always take critic reviews with a grain of salt as far as the Oscar race but this should be a no brainier for Oscar where Inside Llewyn Davis never felt like it was an Oscar movie (as brilliant as it is).
I hope you’re right.
Now sitting at 93 with 18 reviews on MC. It seems to be getting even better. But I think when it reaches to about 50 reviews, it’ll be around the mid to high 80’s. I’m thrilled to hear that Pacino steals the show. Always wanted to see the acting legend in a Scorsese crime film.
After the JOJO RABBIT stunner of a discrepancy between first legit tweets and first reviews, an eighty-anything is a sigh of relief for me on MC. You are right though, it will need massive, massive passion to actually go all the way and win : it won’t be an easy sit (three and a half hour runtime) and it won’t have much of a Box Office, so it has to have passionate fans in the Academy or BP will go to something easier (as it often does).
I don’t see much of an alternative to Irishman , maybe OUATIH , but I’m sceptical of that ..I just see it winning by default .. it has the gravitas, the period piece and the big stars .. my only concern is that it’s not ”diverse” enough for the changing voter pool
We are also still in September with a few notable questions still waiting to be answered : what if 1917 IS an undeniable masterpiece, too, only with a much better release date ? What if the very timely BOMBSHELL receives raves and pulls a Spotlight on us in the end ? What if LITTLE WOMEN is actually a refreshingly brilliant adaptation that could get Gerwig some love after the Lady Bird shut out ?
well, you were right. this one delivered and won’t be overpredicted in nominations though wins are another matter.
It’s no SILENCE apparently haha
Indeed. Though I still have to be cautious cause awards predictors tend to be tad more highbrow than average industry voter and thus overlook middlebrow treats that snatch wigs.
To be honest I was very cautious about this one pre-embargo, Scorsese or not. I just remained open to the idea that it may just break out in a big way after all.
A few thoughts…
There’s no way Netflix gets 3 movies into the BP lineup. Irishman and Marriage Story look rock solid. Two Popes seems relegated to script and acting categories.
That Supporting Actor lineup is ridiculous. Pitt, Pesci, Pacino, Hopkins, Hanks. My God, the starpower.
I realize I haven’t seen it, but Jojo Rabbit seems vastly overestimated at this point. 1917, Little Women, and Joker seem to be the big wild cards right now.
JOKER is an interesting film to predict for BP : first nobody thought it stood a chance, then it won the Golden Lion and everyone thought it stood a chance then critical scores started going down suggesting it will be divisive and now there is a proper campaign against it due to its violent content. I think it will make the BP cut in the end (divisive films fare well in this new BP voting system) but its best shot at a big win will be probably Phoenix.
Passion can get JOKER in for BP but It’d never win nowadays… BA seems like a lock though.
I think JoJo is overestimated to win but right now it’s totally getting nominated because some people love it and it will be pushed to number 1 on a bunch of ballots. That is how you get a picture nomination. Though things can change I guess
Jojo will win if there’s anti-campaign that it shouldn’t cause bad critical score. It happens all the time. Critics go “but but highest score must win” and AMPAS is, like, nah dude.
”That Supporting Actor lineup is ridiculous. Pitt, Pesci, Pacino, Hopkins, Hanks.”
What decade are we in? 90’s?
PS: loving it!!!
70’s 80’s 90’s AND TODAY!
Wow. You’re right that supporting actor category: epic
You are right about Popes.
I think you are underestimating Jojo just because it doesn’t have glowing reviews. Its MC will go up and it’s an AMPAS catnip. In this phase of Oscar race, predictors are always blinded by reviews and think MC is be all. Then come critics awards and finally reality settles in when Globes, Guilds and BAFTA go against critical grain.
Can someone say is Thomasin McKenzie definitely lead in JoJo Rabbit? I’m just wondering about how categories will fill up?
I think they will probably campaign her in supporting with Johansson, may not be a winning strategy, internal competition being a big hurdle and all, but two nods from the same film in supporting actress aren’t really that rare, it does happen every now and then. McKenzie should have a solid shot if the film becomes a big player with the Academy.
McKenzie is vulnerable because reviews are not there. So she isn’t competing for the win but for also-run spot. And those spots tend to fall by the wayside. She doesn’t have reviews for Actress (many of them forgot she’s in the movie) or Supporting (Johansson gets singled out over her in some reviews).
How is she a lead if she shows up half-way through and the lead is clearly the little boy?