All the runners in the Supporting Actress race are not yet at the starting gate, and thus, it’s harder to figure out which of the contenders will go the distance to the big show. We can try to triangulate the past, to figure out any patterns that emerge. To do that, let’s first look at how many in this category have recently come from Best Picture nominees* and winners*.
2000 – 2/5 (Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock)
2001 – 3/5 (Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind+)
2002 – 3/5 (Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago+)
2003 – 1/5 (Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain)
2004 – 2/5 (Cate Blanchett, The Aviator*)
2005 – 2/5 (Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener)
2006 – 3/5 (Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls)
2007 – 2/5 (Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton*)
2008 – 1/5 (Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
2009 – 3/5 (Mo’Nique, Precious*)
2010 – 4/5 (Melissa Leo, The Fighter*)
2011 – 3/5 (Octavia Spencer, The Help*)
2012 – 3/5 (Anne Hathaway, Les Mis*)
2013 – 3/5 (Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years+)
2014 – 3/5 (Patricia Arquette, Boyhood*)
2015 – 1/5 (Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl)
2016 – 5/5 (Viola Davis, Fences*)
2017 – 3/5 (Allison Janney, I, Tonya)
2018 – 4/5 (Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk)
Right off, you can plainly see that in the supporting category, an actress is has a better chance of winning without a corresponding Best Picture nomination than a Supporting Actor does. That’s probably because women overall have better roles in films that don’t necessarily go all the way. Make of that what you will. Last year, the only Supporting Actress nominee who wasn’t in a Best Picture nominee is the woman who won, Regina King. In general, the average is that three of the nominees are in a Best Picture nominee.
There are many that were frontrunners early and never lost their spot. This is true of King for sure, and a lot of that may have had as much to do with her stature in the industry as the performance itself. Alicia Vikander is a good example of a super-hot celebrity who basically won for giving a leading performance. It was deserving but it was hardly supporting.
Where and how does their frontrunner status begin? It starts early, with buzz and critics awards but it can be cemented at the Golden Globes. Of those above, 12/19 of them also won the Globe. Who didn’t and why? Kate Winslet won the Globe for Steve Jobs but the Academy did not like that movie and gave their prize to Alicia Vikander who was nominated for lead at the Globes (supporting for Ex Machina). Jennifer Lawrence won for American Hustle but that win did not sit well with the audience and especially Oscar voters because Lupita Nyong’o was the one people thought SHOULD win, and so she did win the Oscar, and 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. The only other really famous one (other than Kate Winslet’s double nominee thing, like Vikander’s) was Cate Blanchett winning for I’m Not There at the Globes but Tilda Swinton winning for Michael Clayton at the Oscars. That one probably went down that way because the Academy clearly wanted to give Michael Clayton something – as they liked the movie enough to give it a Best Picture nomination. In my opinion (though I love Swinton in everything) Blanchett was robbed.
With a few exceptions, a lot of the supporting actor wins (for male and female) are anchored to a lead performance. In almost all of the above cases that’s true, and in many cases that lead was also nominated. This year is no exception.
So, for Supporting Actress, having early buzz is a bigger deal than being in a Best Picture contender (the opposite is true for Best Supporting Actor). Does anyone have that early buzz right now? Well, one person does and that’s Laura Dern, who has not only never won an Oscar but is riding high right now, catching a wave of sudden Dern love that came out of her work in Big Little Lies. How well the Academy likes Marriage Story overall could make the difference here but it isn’t necessary. Dern can take it all the way just on her performance alone. There is no question that, as of right now anyway, Dern has secured her early place in line and could very well go all the way. Dern would be anchored to either Adam Driver or Scarlett Johansson.
She does have challengers, however, namely Scarlett Johansson who is brilliant in Marriage Story but also in Jojo Rabbit. If she becomes a double nominee and isn’t going to win in Best Actress, and they really like Jojo Rabbit a lot, she could benefit. If Jojo, say, wins Best Picture, then she could absolutely be swept along with it – as she too hasn’t won. Thomasin McKenzie could also up for supporting for Jojo Rabbit. Johansson or McKenzie would be anchored to Roman Griffin Davis.
Another name that’s floating around a lot is Jennifer Lopez who is fantastic in Hustlers and is probably overdue for recognition, as she’s turned in so many fine performances over the years, as she did in Out of Sight. I am particularly fond of the action film Enough. And I even like her in An Unfinished Life. I guess you could say I was a fan … of her acting. She will be on a comeback upswing from the disaster that was Gigli (overblown a wee bit, I thought). Ben Affleck had his comeback, now she can have hers. There is some rumblings about her entering the lead actress category – where she’d have to do battle with Renee Zellweger. Can she win for Hustlers? Sure she can. Maybe easier than in Best Actress but beating Dern is going to be a challenge. Lopez is anchored to Constance Wu.
One of the biggest standouts in Dolemite is My Name is Da’Vine Joy Randolph who has a once in a generation screen presence that you have to see to believe. If the film is well liked and if it gets any nominations at all for its acting, which it should, Randolph will be at the top of the list. Here’s hoping, anyway. Randolph is anchored to the great Eddie Murphy.
Another name buzzing around is Shuzhen Zhao as Nai Nai in The Farewell. And indeed, she is fantastic in the film, it must be said. She plays a Chinese grandmother who really is the anchor that holds the family together. She’s dying but no one is prepared to tell her (the real person, by the way, that she’s based on is still alive and well!). Shuzhen Zhao is anchored to Awkwafina.
Annette Bening is another strong contender for The Report, wherein she plays Dianne Feinstein. Bening, of course, as we all know, has never won an Oscar. She has been doing consistently good work for years. I’ve heard through the grapevine that The Report is playing like gangbusters with Academy members and if that’s true, Bening should have no problem getting in. Bening is anchored to Adam Driver.
Waves has two great supporting actress contenders – Taylor Russell and Renee Elaine Godsberry in Waves. It is an ensemble piece and if it catches on the way it did in Telluride and Toronto one or both of them could get in.
Gugu Mbatha-Raw is one of the standouts in the actor’s showcase that is Motherless Brooklyn. She would be, of course, anchored to Edward Norton.
Two big movies coming later have potential supporting contenders in them – Greta Gerwig’s Little Women and Jay Roach’s Bombshell. Watch out for these two films to blast through many of the categories we’re planning out now.
Florence Pugh is considered a sight-unseen contender by many of those I queried on Twitter. Nicole Kidman and Margot Robbie are potential contenders for Bombshell. Pugh would be anchored to Saoirse Ronan, and Kidman and Robbie anchored to Charlize Theron.
With so many options, it is impossible right now to narrow down a five. But if I had to — I’d probably go:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Annette Bening, The Report
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite is My Name
With Little Women and Bombshell TBD.
How about you, Oscarwatchers?
I just saw Hustlers. Fell asleep three times. Not sure what the fuss is about. J. Lo is good but not sure why she’s on so many predictions I guess. I wouldn’t put her in the top five and I love her.
Well, some accusations of sex bias and harrasment are starting to popping up. Can this affect his nomination? What do you think guys?
Best Picture nominees tend to carry at least one acting nomination. Tech juggernauts are usually the ones that miss acting nomination, but a BP film with a viable acting nomination usually gets them. If you’re predicting it to get BP nomination, predict it to get an acting nomination, too. However, this year the acting categories are stacked so it might be more difficult for them to match BP.
My Best Picture line up right now.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Parasite (Neon)
The Farewell (A24)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
What this means is that both JOJO and Ford are getting an acting nomination. Johansson/McKenzie for JOJO. And you thought Bale was going to miss, but he will not if his film is BP nominated. Probably, but quite sure because this year the acting categories are stacked.
What I ultmiately think WILL happen is:
Dern
Bening
Lopez
Robbie
Smith
But I wouldn’t put it past Pugh (lots of buzz), Zhao (critics need to help her) or Randolph (haven’t seen Dolemite yet) to be in there.
At this point, not sure ScarJo could get double-nommed when she’s given so many great performances in the past and has never even been nominated yet by AMPAS.
Not sure about Maggie Smith – she’s amazing in DOWNTON ABBEY, but I believe there might be some bias from AMPAS members because of the movie coming from a TV series. Plus, Dame Maggie Smith she’s careless about campaigning: that’s the only reason she missed Oscar noms for her work in THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL (2012) or for THE LAD IN THE VAN (2015).
What is the point of nominating someone twice when you know they’re unlikely to win? Scarlett Johansson is almost guaranteed to be nominated in lead and that happens to be her best shot of winning because it is a more acclaimed role and film. Some people may dislike how I try to rationalise everything, but I call it as I see it. Giving her an extra nomination when it’s not going to win is stupid. You might say, Johansson might not need it but that just deprives her film of a major nomination. But it doesn’t have to be because McKenzie is as acclaimed as her and can be nominated instead. Johansson is a major actress and doesn’t need two nominations, especially when she isn’t winning. She can instead campaign for her young co-star to be nominated in her place. That will help her film and show a generosity which will stand her in good stead in the future. But more importantly, it is the right thing to do.
To sum up, she isn’t winning support, so it’s pointless second nomination.
Thing is… you don´t know, right?
Don’t know what? There are some things we don’t know and some things we do. I think even she knows.
I really distrust these ultimate statements that leave no room for any doubts. We simply cannot know if Scarlett Johansson has no chance of winning for “Jojo”. I take everything that is stated as “lock” or “certainty” with the usual grain of salt – especially four months prior to the ceremony!
Oh, there is a plenty of room for doubt. If I am about anything, it is having doubts. I don’t trust anyone that doesn’t have doubts. There is no blank statement here. Anything is possible, but I am talking about probability. I just look at where she is in supporting actress rankings and it’s not higher than third, at best. The two at the top have bigger raves and buzz and, she is more likely to go down than up with new additions to the race. I called Dern lock for the win this early because I cannot see her losing any steam until she loses SAG. That’s how strong she is. Also, it’s kind of fun to call one major category a lock this early. It could be wrong, but so what. It’s fun.
Look at it this, if she was on top of likely winners or even a close second, it would make total sense. The performances in JOJO isn’t strong enough on it own. It might not even be strong enough to be nominated let alone win. It’s just that I think some suspect that she will lose in lead so that could be her back up for a win. I don’t think that will happen. Dern is locked to win.
Ah, there are dozens of Oscar performances I´d consider not to be strong enough, but still… There are so many factors that come together that the performaces rarely ever stand for their own.
It’s just about my perception. I haven’t even seen the film or most of her competitors either. I am going by the reviews which don’t seem to me to be raving about her performance. They seem to like the kids more. But also, where she is listed by those who think she will be nominated. Except for a few, they think she will be third at best. That’s not a good sign for a would be winner. I just think it’s wasted second nomination if she is not winning.
Joker has really tumbled in the ratings … wasn’t it at 75 or higher at one point? Now it’s down to 62.
62 is low but in the preferential system divisive films like Joker (or Jojo Rabbit) are still in there with a shot, they just need a relatively small percentage of No1 votes to make the cut in BP. I don’t know what to make of Joker yet though, I’m seeing it sometime tomorrow.
But it’s a double whammy. It’s a superhero film and it and has a low ratings. That’s not good. It’s chances of nomination are nose diving.
I think JoJo Rabbit has a better shot at a nom than Joker. Just a gut feeling. If I had to choose my top ten for BP nods Jojo would be safely in and Joker would be out.
Of course, mainly because “Joker” is a very dark film while “Jojo” seems to be.. well… the holocaust movie for the whole family! 😉
I’m going tonight to Joker. I was really pumped for it but my excitement is tempered now.
There’s campaign to destroy this movie’s picture nomination and they’ll likely succeed but they can kiss any Marvel movie Picture nomination including Black Panther 2’s goodbye no matter how much overpraise they lavish it with. Not happening.
So the critics are deliberately giving it a bad review just to destroy its awards chances? That’s ridiculous.
if they can deliberately give completely laughable overpraise to give a movie a chance they can also sabotage a movie.
How do you know it’s deliberate? So, your subjective opinion about films is right, but theirs is wrong? By your definition, every badly reviewed film has been deliberately sabotaged. Or maybe just the ones you think are good. You can just say the critics are wrong instead of spouting nonsense about a conspiracy do down or overpraise certain films.
some movies are overpraised but that’s because RT lets in “critics” with similar taste. That’s why Marvel movies end up with unnaturally high scores when they don’t deserve it. I still can’t believe shit like Doctor Strange is 90% or more.
Well, I don’t follow RT scores, because I don’t even get how their scores work. I much prefer MC scores. But in general, I think films have been over scored a bit too much this decade.
So many replies. Did not mean to stir up a hornet’s nest regarding 2013, but people are sure protesting way too much for a secure conviction in what they say. Tell you what. Point to a single moment where Nyong’o did anything special in 12YAS. Just one. The soap scene? No. Getting whipped bloody? Seems to me the audience reacted to the torture porn, not the acting, complete with blood splattering everywhere. But I’m open-minded.
On the flip side of that, can you point to any scene in American Hustle where Lawrence did anything special? Or are you just being a troll?
H’m. When she talked about not liking change. The final argument with Bale’s character. The confrontation with Adams. Etc. As to what I asked for, I guess nothing comes to mind.
Both the films were from 2013, and I think like most people, I remember 12 Years A Slave much more clearly than American Hustle. Sorry. If you love that film, that’s your prerogative.
Actually found AH disjointed. But 12YAS was a tedious bore.
By contrast, your arguments are really interesting. Also, I love J-Law and I’m looking forward to her future projects. I feel this is going nowhere too, so I will also take my leave now,
I already gave you at least one example down the thread. I haven’t seen either movie since they were in the theatre. I don’t really have a horse in the race since neither film really does too much for me but I think saying that Jennifer Lawrence is better in AMERICAN HUSTLE than Lupita Nyong’o in 12 YEARS A SLAVE is a foolish statement. I like bother actresses and both films sit in about the same place for me. But I won’t continue with this conversation any longer since you’re clearly just a JLaw stan (I’ve met her and she’s lovely so i completely understand) but this is going nowhere.
Ok
if I had it my way, Sally would have won for Jasmine and Lupita would win for Us.
But either way, Lupita did better than overactor Fassbender who was swallowing scenery without leaving anything to other actors and Ejiofor was just sleepwalking. Why he got a standing ovation at BAFTA is a big mystery to me. I wouldn’t call his performance subtle or whatever, just a non-entity.
Yes about Fassbender.
I swear that the flogging scene overacting shocked his co-stars and that they reacted more to overacting than to the scene itself. It was that cringe.
LOL. But you’re saying that just because something didn’t work for you, it can’t possibly have worked for anyone else, and we’re just unable to see clearly enough to realise that actually a performance we found resonant was in reality nothing special.
To answer your question, I thought her performance was most powerful in the quiet moments, just sitting in a field, playing with her straw dolls. To me, she carried the weight of a life lived, of a stunted and confused internal world, of hopes and dreams and resignations. She was incredibly present, she felt like a person, and it was hard breaking to see her so trapped by her circumstance.
Perhaps you’re implying that’s just white guilt talking, but I could just as easily imply you prefer the bold, unsubtle antics of JLaw in American Hustle (which I do love) over the subtler nuances of Nyongo’s work, but that would be just as pointless. It’s great to connect to a piece of art / performance / humanity. Why would I care or judge what works for you or not?
That’s my take. If you don’t agree, that’s cool, but you could choose to spend your energy building up what you dig and respond to rather than trying to convince others that what they respond to is false – honest suggestion.
My goodness. I asked for an example and you give me when she was playing with a doll in the background for a few seconds or that she was “present” and symbolic of the weight of life, etc. In other words you have nothing and admit everything I suspected, which is that people were not treating Lupita as an actress at all but as a symbol and were positively desperate to read meaning and skill into her simply being on screen, even just in the background. Thank you for so effectively proving my point. You can’t point to anything. There was nothing subtle or nuanced. Just nothing at all. The level of grasping here is remarkable. If this is the best you can come up with, which required no skill whatsoever, it really doesn’t help the argument.
Adam Driver is the frontrunner for lead actor, but he is vulnerable. I think there are two actors who if they and their film is nominated will probably steal the Oscar from him. They are Eddie Murphy and Sir Ian McKellen. The former has wide appeal and the latter is the greatest living (Male) Thespian. People forget how close (No pun intended) Murphy came to being an Oscar winner and concentrate only on his detractors. He is a love or hate kind of guy, but there is no question he has wide appeal. In fact, only DiCaprio has more wide appeal than Murphy. Murphy was the first black movie star and paved the way for the likes of Washington and Smith to become movie stars. I think his narrow loss last time might help him this time, if he is nominated.
Holy shit, J.Lo?! I have not see Hustles, but I’m totally on board. I loved her in U Turn.
The Cell
She’s good in that too.
She’s spectacular in Hustlers. It’s one of the best “movie star” performances in many years.
she’s great and the movie’s very good too.
Maggie Smith has a very strong shot. The Downton Abbey movie is raking in the $$ worldwide. It’s in the 80s on RT. SAG and BAFTA might bite for her and/or other categories. I wouldn’t put it past the HFPA to go for her, too. She’s beloved in one of her most beloved roles. And how her character arc evolves by the end is quietly powerful. I think she’ll be in the Top 7, for sure.
I think there are only three actors who are lock right now: Dern, Zelwegger and Johansson.
The acting race will only be made clear when SAG announces its nominations. SAG usually embraces films by POC, but the pundits don’t because they go for the most obvious, the ones with the big names or the festival darlings. POC films never get any attention unless they have insane ratings or a big name director. I don’t know which film about POC will be boosted by SAG but it might Dolemite, as Sasha is hinting. I am hesitant about that because there are already two massive contenders for Netflix and a third film looks too much. Netflix has made a reputation supporting diverse filmmakers, and I’m sure they will not want to be seen to be only supporting films by white guys. Anyway, it’s not like Scorsese needs any help promoting his films. I think they might push Dolemite. Will it get all three in or perhaps sacrifice one of its frontrunners in order to keep its diversity record? Big dilemma.
To be clear, Dern in support is locked for the win, not just nomination. She will give Casey Affleck a run for money for biggest acting award sweep ever. Zelwegger and Johansson are locked for lead actress nomination. All the others are still up in the air. Expect major snubs in lead actor and supporting actor.
Julianne Nicholson in MONOS….why isn’t anyone talking her up?
I really want to watch that film.
The word “LOCK” gets thrown around too loosely. There are NO locks in this category at all. Especially since NOT everything has been seen. Using the word “lock” just doesn’t make sense nor is correct.
Bening SEEMS like a lock, but likely depends on the reception to the film (since Driver will clearly be campaigning for Marriage Story instead).
Any indication on how big her role is? If the film itself is not a BP player, & Driver campaigns hard for Marriage Story instead (as he should), her performance / reputation may not be enough to get her nominated if the role is small. On a related note, her performance in 20th Century Women was my favourite of that year, after Trevante Rhodes in Moonlight, but I think she should have been campaigned in supporting.
Lopez’s momentum will fade- I think she’ll land a GG nom/ possible win, but no way will she be nominated for an Oscar. Then again, stranger things have happened…Robbie will also not be nominated- not much there. Rooting for Benning, though.
BTW, Sasha your comment that the audience as well as Oscar voters didn’t want Lawrence to win the GG for American Hustle is incorrect-in fact, right up to the night of the Oscars, Lawrence and N’yongo were neck and neck for the win.
Lopez momentum is not gonna fade. There’s no reason for fading. reviews are stellar, boxoffice is stellar. She’ll campaign. She has a good narrative.
I’m going experimental here and be playing a devil’s advocate.
First, really no Robbie for OUATIH? Or maybe I’m just the only one blinded by the brilliance of her perfirmance in the film?
Second, has anybody read Gerwig’s script of Little Women? Just curious why most are predicting Pugh over Watson. I think if there’s anyone who would be in a position to contend for supporting to Ronan then it’s Watson as Meg and the fact that she replaced Stone for the role. It’s just hard to imagine Gerwig picking Stone for the role without it having much meat.
Third, Cruz could very well be in contention for Pain and Glory.
Fourth, it’s really interesting that Sasha brings up the Waves actresses in the conversation over Maggie Smith who’s already in the conversation just right after Downton Abbey exceeded expectations at the box-office. Hope it isn’t just for diversity play.
I second that!
I think the buzz for Pugh is based on 1) Pugh’s recent, buzzed performances in Lady Macbeth & Midsommar 2) Her standout presence in the trailer, which suggests Gerwig’s version may give her a bit more meat/grit/screen time than expected.
Laura Dern & Meryl Streep are likely to be great, but both have other, probably bigger, roles to contend for. Eliza Scanlon should also have some big – potentially sentimental, although hopefully Gerwig transcends that – scenes, and certainly made a case for her talents with Sharp Objects, so she could also be a contender. Honestly, Emma Watson seems the least likely contender to me, based only on the trailer & my own baseless instincts.
I wonder if Robbie may possibly become a bigger contender with Bombshell (although OUATIH’s BP frontrunner status may count for more, even with her limited screentime).
Agree Cruz and Smith should at least be considered contenders. I’m not the biggest Downton fan, but would be happy for another Smith nod, after years of great overlooked work (Lady in the Van, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Quartet). Although her last nod was for Gosford Park, which was kind of a predecessor for Downtown Abbey (with Julian Fellowes scripting both, and her role being kind of similar). She’s always wonderful, though, and incredibly funny, and deserved nods over the years for any number of films (so tragic in Lonely Passion of Judith Hearne, so funny in A Private Function, just a great movie star in The Secret Garden & Tea with Mussolini).
I think Robbie in Bombshell helps solidify her more for OUATIH. I just don’t see a ‘made up role’ in Bombshell overtaking one of the BP frontrunners (and her role in it).
Fair enough. Being in a film at the top of the screener pile usually makes all the difference. I wonder why Sasha is underestimating her.
Would also like to add Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II in your list. Always a dependable character actress that’s Maggie Smith!
I think Dame Maggie Smith is a factor for the Downton Abbey movie. She delivers her zingers like a champ, but she also has a poignant scene with Michelle Dockery that is just WOW!
I don’t think Jennifer Lopez has a chance.
Yeah, Smith is high on my list. And I think if JLo gets in, it’ll be due to a Globe nom and some intense campaigning. Not sure I see SAG/BAFTA/Academy voters going gaga for her or the film, honestly.
Agreed!
I think Lopez’s momentum will fade. Especially if Bombshell turns out to be a bombshell movie.
This category is completely up in the air to me. Personally, I think Dern is the only one close to a lock status. JLo and ScarJo look solid but will ScarJo be a double nom? I have my doubts but hope I’m wrong.
I think Robbie is sitting stronger than many do. This category is kind of weak compared to other years. If OUATIH is loved, she’s getting in. Period.
Agreed on Robbie, if OUATIH is an across the board contender, she will get in solely based on her role that was essentially her being the heart of the film. Having said that, if Bombshell gets good reviews, I could see her getting awards consideration for that one, as well. Either way, Robbie will be in the conversation.
I keep forgetting about Bombshell. There are still several movies that could turn this whole season on its collective head.
Oh, SO many twists and turns could still take place. Sure, for all we know we’ve already seen and read the reviews of the BP winner but at the same time what if
– Clint pulls a Million Dollar Baby on us with RICHARD JEWELL and just takes over the last minute ?
– 1917 turns out to be an actual masterpiece and contender across the board ?
– LITTLE WOMEN is actually solid and gets proper consideration in the main categories ?
– the very timely BOMBSHELL gets raves and attempts to pull a Spotlight on us ?
– the very timely QUEEN & SLIM comes out of nowhere and becomes a big contender ?
Of all the categories 1917 is likely to gain traction in, Supporting Actress seems the least likely (well Lead Actress would be the least likely, I suppose). Since it all plays out in real time, there’s unlikely to be any substantial roles for women in the trenches of WWI.
I meant BP.
Dern is gonna sweep in my humble opinion. The category is weak, she’s a veteran in a acclaimed BP frontrunner and she has a lot of influence in the Academy. Can’t see another woman winning this from now.
It’s the year of Laura Dern – fingers crossed for an Oscar and Emmy.
I feel like Zhao is the kind of performance the critics will rally around (and I wholeheartedly agree!). But I feel like she and Dern will be competing for Critic’s Darling.
On a “NEVER GONNA HAPPEN” note, I just watched Gaspar Noe’s “Climax” the other night. His aesthetic works for me, but not all of his films do. I thought this was his best in a long time and I’d love to see Sofia Boutella get some love for it. Or, to a lesser degree, Souheila Yacoub. Again, I know it won’t happen, but I thought they were both great with Boutella really standing out to me.
Jennifer Lopez is overdue for recognition? REALLY?
Not in the traditional sense as in she has been delivering so many great performances on a regular basis that now she must get a career nomination at last.
More in the sense that she had a pretty iconic career trajectory. She DID start out as a critically acclaimed actress, she was an Oscar contender in 1997 for Selena (traditional biopic kind of Oscar bid that she received a Golden Globe (drama lead actress) nomination for) and then again the next year in 1998 for Out of Sight that was an instant cult hit.
Then Hollywood realised she had massive commercial potential and turned her into a movie star via less than stellar though BO-wise successful genre films (The Cell, The Wedding Planner, Enough, Maid in Manhattan, Shall We Dance, Monster-in Law) and at the same time period she also became one of the biggest pop stars in the music industry. While these two developments did turn her into an internationally renowned megastar, they kinda lost her all the street cred she amassed early on with the high-brow section of the film industry.
Now with Hustlers she is not only back to films she is better than ever in her biggest hit yet, both commercially and critically. Having said that, I would never say she has a body of work that warrants a career Oscar nomination nor that I consider her performance in Hustlers undeniable thus one that should definitely win, but I will say, I do get the narrative her team is angling for and at the same time I do wish she had received a nomination for Selena back in the day. Now that was “a star is born” performance if there ever was one.
But at the end of the day, I am rooting for Dern, an actress who DOES have a body of work that makes it almost ridiculous she has never won an Oscar before. I mean Inland Empire, anyone ?
I agree that Dern, Lopez and Johansson seem like the strongest out of the gate.
I think Shuzhen Zhao will be definitely a contender but her chances of actually making the cut may very well be down to how well-received Little Women and Bombshell will be.
Pugh is having a strong year so I could see her pull a Vikander and get a supporting nod for her most traditional role in a year she delivered several acclaimed performances however I wouldn’t count out Eliza Scanlen who has already proved to have great potential AND plays one of the most beloved literary characters, as well.
Kidman or Robbie, well that’s a coin toss for now, will greatly depend on how well received the film is and how prominent their respective roles are.
P.S. James Baker just reminded me of Maggie Smith. She is always a contender indeed, she won’t care / campaign either way but I would say she is a solid top6 player for now.
Shuzhen Zhao as Nai Nai in The Farewell — My favorite along with Jlo. I could support either one. I think ZHAO stole the movie in the Farewell.
Too early still. Btw Jennifer Lawrence should have for American Hustle, which is why she won all the major critics awards that year. Nyongo won it as a diversity award.
You know….
When Oscarsowhite was going on, there were some who said “what’s the problem, black people should just make better movies”. So, what ended up happening was black people clearly were making better movies, resulting in Lupita’s Supporting win in the Best Picture Oscar winner. Yet, she’s brushed off as a “diversity award”.
Black creative artists figured out this circular jerk a LONG time ago. I would suggest you just stop now and stop embarassing yourself further.
12YAS was tedious. I’m brushing it off as politics because that is exactly what it was. Let’s just pretend that was on the merits.
Are you an Academy voter? If not, why is your opinion more valid than the people who actually work in the industry.
The fact that you think JLaw should have won for that caricature she played in American Hustle makes me question how authoritative your hot takes really are.
Yep. All on the merits. No politics which makes everything a racial spoils system battle.
I repeat: there was no racial politics back in 2013. 12YAS is one of the most critically acclaimed BP winners ever. It’s a rare occasion when the Academy got it right. Perhaps you didn’t like it because you don’t like serious historical dramas and you didn’t find it a comfortable watch. That’s your personal problem.
Really? You need a refresher course in recent US history.
We were talking about Oscar politics! Stick to the topic! There clearly was no racial pressure in 2013 in Hollywood, which is why they had 20 white actors nominated for two years in a row before the 2015 OscarsSoWhite movement. (That’s not even counting the century or so of Oscars before then, when nearly everybody was white.) If you want to argue about Moonlight in 2016, you would make more sense.
You’d still be wrong, but make more sense than now.I believe 12 Years A Slave won in 2013. OscarsSoWhite happened in 2015. There was no such political movement in 2013. It won on its merits, because it was a powerful historical drama, and didn’t rely too much on special effects like its main rival, Gravity.
It was a good movie that I have no desire to ever see again.
Plenty of Oscar winners about white people are tedious, but the politics there are just less visible (to white people).
12YAS clearly has merit as a winner, even if it wasn’t your preference.
The alternative at the time was Gravity, so thank the cinema gods that didn’t happen (it’s a fun, impressively made movie, but also a bit silly and would have had a tough time holding its own as a BP winner). My favs of that year were Her, Before Midnight & Short Term 12, but I thought 12YAS was a deserving winner, and certainly in my Top 10.
Well said. And yes the “diversity award” jibe was just snide.
“why she won all the major critics awards that year”
She won two out of the three with Nyong’o winning the third one and being runner-up in both of the ones that Lawrence lost. That is not a clear win. And if you look at critics’ awards in general, from my counts Nyong’o won 23 supporting actress awards from different critics’ groups whereas Lawrence won only 11
But she won the two big ones. LA then voted after NY and the NBR and made sure she did not even get runner up. The usual nonsense. LOL.
1) NBR isn’t a “big one”. NBR is pathetic compared to the actual third one, NSFC
2) People have won both NYFCC and LAFCA, and I doubt that LAFCA had an immense hatred against Lawrence that they decided to particularly push her out. Just because people disagree with you, doesn’t mean that they’re planning against your favourites
Right. They buried AH and Jen with it.
What? You seem to express your point as if I agreed with you, when in fact what I expressed was in complete disagreement with your “They attacked Lawrence” point of view (and also, that you refer to Lawrence as “Jen” implies that your point of view might be a little biased)
Jennifer Lawrence was so miscast in American Hustle it was difficult to watch at times. For her to come so close once again after winning at age 22 for what was only just a decent performance in Silver Linings Playbook was baffling. In my opinion, you can’t even compare the acting abilities of Lupita and Jennifer. Lupita is hands down a far more versatile performer. No questions asked.
Jlaw is just more talented, whether that is woke or not. Haven’t seen the slightest evidence of Lupita’s alleged versatility, but Disney adopted her and she got a nice role finally in US. So good for her.
It is not even Lawrence’s fault, she lucked out with the Oscars early on. She had the Weinstein machine that at the time was powerful enough to get her the lead actress Oscar for what essentially was a supporting role she was simply wrong for (novel / script called for a middle aged mess so they cast a bright 21-year old bombshell, that’s Harvey for you). Then she got another nod for a very similar miscast situation and basically the same role, textbook DOR screaming, yelling, crying with exploitative close ups.
While I am clearly not big on DOR films or her performances in DOR films, I do think she is talented with a strong screen presence and I also thought she was excellent in Winter’s Bone and the otherwise problematic Red Sparrow.
Nyong’o however is a completely different type of actress. Lawrence is all charisma and instinct, Nyong’o on the other hand is more skilled simply because she had a different type of training, a more classical one. Lawrence learned the craft through bit roles from an early age, Nyong’O learned the craft the traditional way, in (Yale) drama school.
They are just different type of actresses. Doesn’t mean either is better than the other just that their experiences, training, approach, range and execution differ. That’s all.
But she went to Yale drama school. She just cannot play the roles as well as this other actress who didn’t. Ah training vs. genius. Kind of like that Amadeus film.
You seem to be crediting opinions to me that I never had thus never shared so maybe you should read my comment again. Maybe a bit slower this time.
Side note : I never said JL can’t play roles that classically trained actresses can. I said they are different type of actors. Not better or worse, just different. Not the same thing.
Fair enough.
Lawrence’s natural talent is so much greater than the vast majority of her peers that it hurts her. People such as you need to see the acting, the process, which is actually a sign of lesser ability. But you equate surface tics associated with training to ability. Jlaw needs to dumb it down so that you can notice her “acting.” But honestly Lupita is a very limited actress. Sorry.
1. I do see Lawrence’s natural talent, I wrote about it in all my relevant comments here.
2. I don’t need to detect signs of “training” in a performance, I simply need to see a better one than the one who wins in the category in question. In that year Nyong’o delivered the better one. Not necessarily because she IS a better actress but because she had a better role, better director and better script, things I alluded to in my previous post. It’s not Lawrence’s fault, it is her director’s.
Sure, classically trained Yale graduate Lupita Nyong’o couldn’t possibly win on merit even though she delivered a highly acclaimed performance in a highly acclaimed film. Well that’s a “gtfo” moment if there ever was one.
Also, while I have nothing against Lawrence, a talented young actress even if somewhat overhyped, her performance in American Hustle was nothing to write home about : same old DOR Oscar-bait with hysterical screaming and crying in low cut tops and exploitative close ups lacking any semblance of subtlety or depth. Not her fault, it was Russell’s, but still, in the end the performance and the character suffered.
She didn’t that year, and all the training and family wealth doesn’t change it. Look one actress had to create a 3 dimensional character and the other got beat up. Sorry but Jlaw won all the major critics awards that year too. But, but but, Yale degree or something.
What so the stereotypical af hysterical nagging wife slash scorn woman in low cut blouses character is three-dimensional but the slave who endures lifelong physical, emotional and sexual abuse (all depicted in the film) and thus is desperate to make a single positive connection to a human being, is not ? Yeah I’m calling bs there.
Right back at you. But the idea that you think training equals talent is amusing. If you can see the acting, it isn’t that good.
I never said training equals talent. NEVER. Every world-renowned drama school has around 20-30 graduates every year, maybe three from each class become working actors and maybe one actually breaks through. It is down to luck and whether they actually have the goods or just the training. If you only have the training, that won’t be enough in a profession as cut-throat and ridiculously competitive as acting.
Nyong’o managed to break through because she has BOTH talent and training. And also because she got lucky with her first role being a high-profile one in a high-profile film distributed by an Oscar-savvy mini major. That’s all.
As someone who DOES like Jennifer Lawrence, she’s working REALLY hard in “American Hustle”. You can definitely see the acting. (And I enjoyed her performance, but I’m being realistic.) I’m not the most ardent fan of “12 Years a Slave” (I think it’s very, very good, but it didn’t quite move me the way it did other people), but Lupita is pretty sensational in it. The scene where she’s getting whipped is punishing.
It is punishing because the director is showing (fake) blood spurting.
Yup. That’s right. You nailed it. It was the fake blood that got me. Silly me, I thought it was her performance, but it was the blood.
Lawrence was terrible in American Hustle. The worst of the main cast. I think she is a good actress but that character just wasn’t for her.
She was awesome. Sorry. But the tall poppy catches the wind.
Glad I’m not alone. AH was the first time I saw Lawrence, and I was totally knocked out. I thought I was looking at the next Barbara Stanwyck. Her subsequent choices haven’t panned out that way, but I still retain hope.
Lawrence was way to young for the part of a middle age woman. Her and Amy Adams should have switched roles in that movie.
I love both performances, but Lupita Nyongo was brilliant, vivid and devastating. And also in the year’s BP winner. Lawrence had just won the year before. Easy to see how that happened.
American Hustle may be my favourite JLaw performance (although she’s a bit young, but that film is built on being ballsy and a bit bonkers, so who cares. It’s a silly film with fun performances that really shouldn’t work but somehow does), but I’d still have voted for Nyongo, cause she floored me and her performance stayed with me.
The problem is Lupita did not do anything brilliant, vivid or devastating. Rather she was in a movie that in 10 minutes of screen time decided she needed to be beat up, raped and wiped bloody. She on the other hand did nothing special at all. In contrast Jen was the MVP of AH (which otherwise did not work), and you can point to brilliant acting moments such as her arguments with Bale’s character or when she talked about not liking change. With Lupita’s character you really can’t point to anything particularly special and nothing a dozen other actors could not have done. Lupita has star quality. Fair enough. But people wanted so desperately to see it when it really wasn’t there. The irony here is that I think Lupita is fine and I’m happy she had a hit with US. But I am not going to to lower my standards because of the political winds and I am not going to engage in the soft bigotry of low expectations.
But yes, winning the year before coupled with the toxic environment made winning again impossible. It was so bad that Jen was not even allowed to campaign and was begging not to win. Which is a shame.
There are so many narratives going on this year. I have to disagree that this year is seen as weak. I dunno about that. It is strange to hear that and dismissive of the performances of this year as well
Maggie Smith has the narrative of being a living acting legend. Maybe her supporting turn in Downtown Abbey may be her last to be in the running of an Oscar nomination. The Academy may start to think that and the machinery is growing. Narrative: a final hurray
Scarlett Johansson has the possibility to be double nominated. the former character actress who became a global movie star and continue doing great work. The movie is also divisive but hopefully she can get in. Narrative: welcome with a double dip
Jennifer Lopez. Oh man! I am so delighted and super stoked that my Latina is getting so much buzz. Yes she is a movie star and a global music phenomenon, but JLo has always worked her ass off! Have not seen the movie yet, but really looking forward to watch her Ramona bedazzle me with her ooummphhff. Narrative: a star turn by a Latina movie star
There is something about Laura Dern. Something very likable. I have read somewhere that her role in Marriage Story could have been done by several great actresses. That may be the big hurdle for Dern. Narrative: the likable actress in a really good movie
The great Annette Beningn has been nominated 4 times where her best chance was in 2000 for American Beauty. She was truly magnificent in that movie. I think that Bening may struggle to be nominated this year. The other performances feels more inspirational, fresher and interesting. I do agree with those that say Bening should star in a Elizabeth Warren biopic. Narrative: a great non rewarded actress
There is always room for a newcomer. And Florence Plugh fits that description. Her role in Little Women may be fleshed out enough to make her shine. Narrative: welcome to a young and talented actress
Shuzhen Zhao has the performance and the Asian actor nomination narrative
I still think that Elizabeth Moss can also make the cut for Us, IF (that is a huge IF) the film is remembered… IF Lupita starts scoring some precursors, interest in the film will be revived and Moss could easily earn a nom (she was fantastic)
I saw JUDY a few days ago and I kinda had a vague thought that something similar could happen to Jessie Buckley. She has an excellent star vehicle out this year (Wild Rose) that is clearly too small to garner her proper consideration in Best Actress but between her raves for that lead performance, the raves she received for the high-profile (and multiple Emmy-winning) Chernobyl miniseries and the Judy exposure, she may just be the big shocker on Nominations Morning in supporting actress. After all, the Judy screener will be on top of most voters’s pile because of Zellweger what we may not factor in that at the same time they will all see Buckley’s excellent (though not extraordinary) supporting turn in the film, too, and if they realise that she has been having a strong year full of critically acclaimed, high-profile performances, they may vote for her without anyone expecting them to.
For the record, I don’t expect her to be a player in the precursor phase, my very vague theory is that I could see her deliver an Oscar nomination that would be shocking for many.
My personal top 5 right now:
Robbie – Once Upon a Time…
Zhao – The Farewell
Doria Tillier – Le Belle Epoque
Luàna Bajrami – Portrait of a Lady on Fire
One of the actresses from parasite but I can’t decide who to include yet. I’ll wait until I watch it again.
Luàna Bajrami (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Agyness Deyn (Her Smell)
Sandra Hüller (Sibyl)
Fatma Mohamed (In Fabric)
Wang Uvin (An Elephant Sitting Still)
Runners-up: Juliette Binoche (High Life), Sairi Itô (Asako I & II)
Loved Deyn in that movie, but Gayle Rankin has stuck with me more. I can’t pinpoint why. All of the acting is superb and I would love to see Moss get nominated for it, even thought it won’t happen unless she just starts bagging up critics awards. The film is a tough sit and feels VERY long but those performances are uniformly excellent.
I feel like maybe part of why I was so impressed by Deyn was that I was so happy to see her be in a movie again (after her incredible performance in Sunset Song) and that’s why I paid more attention to what she was doing. But everyone in that movie is great
I’ve even got Dan Stevens on my list of possibilities for my own personal lists. I think Gayle playing the calm in the midst of a CRAZY storm drew me to her. She anchored the film in a way it really needed.
Your posts always give me lots of films to add to my ‘oh yeah I need to see that’ list!
I’d love to see Yeo-Jeong Jo, “Parasite” (Mrs. Park) and Zhao Shuzhen, “The Farewell”. nominated. I’d also support a nomination for Luana Bajrami, “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”.
It’s disappointing that Octavia Spencer in Luce has been completely forgotten.
never count out Octavia… never. 3 noms, 1 win, isn’t it the biggest Oscar track record for any african american actress? She is clearly one of the most beloved persons in the industry right now…
But she’s nominated only if her movie is a BP contender. Ergo, not gonna happen this year.
think of Spencer like the african american Judi Dench.
Oh right. She looks great in that.
Over at Goldderby, some think Maggie Smith could be nominated for Downton Abbey. I’m not a fan of the TV series, so I hope it doesn’t happen, but I can easily see it happening.
I forgot about her – she’s definitely a contender.
I suspect JLo gets the nomination, but much like Stallone loses in an upset ( Shuzhen Zhao)
Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time is a contender.
Same with Shuzhen Zhao in The Farewell.
Right now, for me, it feels like:
Laura Dern
Margot Robbie
Shuzhen Zhao
Jennifer Lopez
Annette Bening
But I’m hoping Florence Pugh in Little Women and the ladies in Bombshell will become contenders too.
Dern and Lopez.
Then, Zhao and Robbie.
Then anyone most likely one of late arrivals unless Brits back up Smith in Downton.