The Oscar story for 2019 isn’t yet told. The big stories from last year would probably be what happens when you wish upon A Star is Born early on, the stealthy rise of Green Book, and Roma behind it. The blogger story, the internet story, the pundit/hype story was A Star is Born. I myself was always skeptical, not because of the movie itself. No matter how good it was it could never overcome, didn’t think, being a 4th remake of a tired Hollywood trope. The film was good — it was just never going to be good enough for Oscar voters to go down a road they’d gone down before.
The other big stories from last year were the specter of Best Popular Film story, and the Oscar host story, and the Twitter shitstorm story. Not our finest hour. Our frustration with Trump has driven us nearly insane so that we have no other choice but to chew off our own leg to survive and begin to attack our own just to prove we have some sort of control over things. But no one knew how any of it would go down. The Academy has a continual gun to its head. They need people to watch, not boycott, their show, so they have no choice but to capitulate to the masses who complain about EVERYTHING. That has not gone away. They are still going to be a target for people who feel helpless about how The Trump Show keeps going. And going, and going.
What will be the story this year? Or the two or three big stories? Well, we know Netflix is still a story, as are all streaming vs. theatrical debates. Popular film is probably still a thing; will the Academy take another swing at that to bring people in who are interested because they like the movies that they like? And shitstorms will no doubt once again erupt. The Academy will still be scrutinized for every decision it makes, all of the speeches will be parsed, all of the nominees and all of the winners will be dissected.
We are still waiting for a couple of big movies to drop. It’s almost impossible to get a read on the race until we see them. Namely, Sam Mendes’ World War I epic 1917. It’s a HOLY FUCK of a movie — according to early word — and thus, the race isn’t complete without it. Another big one will be Greta Gerwig’s Little Women. It’s going to be a wee bit annoying to have it be the Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach show without it feeling a little too high school but hey, they are creative people who each made movies so this is the way of the thing.
Just for fun, I went back to last year’s Predictions Friday around October 19, 2018. The two films I had out front that didn’t make it were First Man (overestimated) and If Beale Street Could Talk. Underestimated was Bohemian Rhapsody. I also will own my own shit and say I underestimated Black Panther. But I felt peer pressure re: A Star is Born. I had my doubts about its chances but so many were so confident that I went along with it. All the same, for my Best Picture predictions, I had 7 out of the eventual 8 on my list, missing only Bohemian Rhapsody, though I did include 12 contenders for Best Picture, so that’s cheating — a little.
Either which way, here’s a rundown that will go down in history as a hit or miss. Worth mentioning, last year the only film I hadn’t yet seen when I laid down my cards was Vice, but it ended up getting in. Late breakers are never a sure thing.
So here we go.
Oscarwatching rules:
Main rule to live by:
Actors rule the Academy. In last year’s BP lineup, all but Black Panther had acting nominations. The year before, all but Dunkirk did. And the year before that, all but Arrival did (Amy Adams wuz robbed). ACTORS RULE THE ACADEMY. Make sure you have an acting nominee in your BP predictions. I will use that guideline again.
Best Picture is: that movie you can sit anyone down in front of and they will like it if not love it. They’ll at least get it.
Other rule for 2019: some buzz by the kool kids on Film Twitter can help (as it did with Black Panther last year), but sometimes the buzz and anti-buzz can have unexpected consequences (as it did with Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody). So get out of that bubble and think for yourself, whenever possible. Routinely those Oscar-watchers who do well in our contests are almost always people who are outside the bubble.
Best Picture – Frontrunners
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – potentially two acting nominations, arguably Tarantino’s best film, a nostalgic look back at the pop-culture world that shaped Tarantino as an artist and a man. In telling this story, many who lived through it also have a chance to recall those days of… pain and glory. With bravura performances by Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt, it is by far and quite easily one of the best films of the year. Tarantino also carries the warrior sheath of “defender of cinema,” both in his devotion to “real film” and in his commitment to keeping the New Beverly Cinema alive and thriving. At a time when so much is changing, that will be a story. And it’s not nothing.
Jojo Rabbit – has its place reserved because it won the Audience Award at Toronto, beating all the other heavy hitters that played there. It is a film that packs a powerful message of love — and a desire for freedom, freedom to dance, freedom to love, freedom from oppression, racism, homophobia, fascism. With its rule-breaking humor that dares to make fun of Nazis, Jojo Rabbit shows how sticks and stones may break our bones but words will never really hurt us. It is a joy to watch, a celebration of life and love, and I have never felt so proud of seeing an American flag as I did at the end of that movie.
The Irishman – An entire cast full of respected actors delivering top-shelf performances makes it a strong contender across the board. One of Scorsese’s very best, with low-key editing by Thelma Schoonmaker and a strong desire to deglamorize mob movies, The Irishman is as good as it gets. It will be released November 1 and then begin streaming on Netflix on November 27. That gives it, along with the other Netflix movies, a much better option of being seen by as many people as possible before the Oscar voting starts.
Parasite – surely to top dozens of critics lists, the film most are calling the best film of the year, that could benefit from well-deserved acting nominations. It’s a foreign language film that will have no problem earning enough number one votes to secure a spot, and likely its director, Bong Joon-Ho is also a strong contender.
Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach’s personal film about the breakdown of a marriage and the making of a new kind of family. It is also actor driven, featuring two bravura lead performances plus many supporting performances. Potential nominations in all four acting categories. It is a SAG juggernaut and thus, a strong contender for BP.
Bombshell – although it didn’t run the festival gauntlet, Bombshell is an ensemble to die for, and is the only one of these that is wholly female driven. It is also a strong condemnation of sexual harassment that tells the story of the fall of Roger Ailes. At least two acting noms here.
Dolemite Is My Name – if you invite Dolemite to the Oscars you will instantly have a better show. It is full of life, humor and is a feel good story of an African-American hero. It doesn’t appear to be among Netflix’s primary “prestige” picks — but it is and should be a strong contender for nominations across the board. Eddie Murphy, Wesley Snipes and Da’Vine Randolph Joy could see nominations and it might be a favorite for SAG.
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – based on the potential for Tom Hanks’ Oscar nominations, this film by Marielle Heller is another of the feel-good movies heading for the race, along with Jojo Rabbit and Dolemite Is My Name. The message of patience and calm endurance taught to generations of kids by Fred Rogers could not be more needed right now and that sentiment could drive it to the top of lists.
Joker – Driven by Joaquin Phoenix’s lead performance, can it overcome both the stigma of dwelling in the “comic book wheelhouse yet not being Black Panther,” and the stigma of the whole “sympathy for the Incel thing.” It’s making money but that doesn’t usually matter with superhero movies. That it’s a superhero movie that’s not a superhero movie might matter, might not. A lot of people love it. But it’s hard to know how it will land.
Not yet seen but holding a place for:
1917 – this movie could be the whole thing – with its own slight drawback being that it will come late in the year and the way things go now it’s hard to gain ground later in the season. Sam Mendes has taken on the extraordinary task of splicing the film together seamlessly as one long take. Although films don’t really sweep the Oscars nowadays, this is the kind of film that could still do something like that.
Little Women – Greta Gerwig did not win an Oscar the year Lady Bird got her a Best Director nomination. Adapted Screenplay is weak this year and that gives her a shot to win that writing Oscar, especially considering how close to her heart the novel Little Women appears to be. We haven’t seen it so we don’t yet know but once again, follow the actors. Looks good for at least two, maybe three acting noms.
Richard Jewell – could be driven by the lead actor performance — YET ANOTHER — and by Eastwood’s directing, depending on how it goes. We must keep a place at the table for it, in case it breaks big, as American Sniper did.
Dark Waters – yet another male actor showcase with Mark Ruffalo, and potentially supporting actors as well. A hard-hitting politically strong film about poisoned water. And greedy corporations that did nothing about it. The pic is starting to screen at the end of this month.
My on the fence picks. Please note: if any of these performances are beloved to the point where they will win, then that movie is getting in for Best Picture, I figure:
The Two Popes – fourth Netflix movie, driven by Jonathan Pryce’s brilliant performance as Pope Francis.
Rocketman – yet another powerhouse performance by Taron Egerton, along with beloved Elton John songs.
Queen & Slim – potentially driven by the lead actress performance of Jodie Turner-Smith but also it being a 100% WoC production, written, directed by and starring.
Ford v Ferrari – a solid film with two very good male performances in the lead, Christian Bale and Matt Damon.
Waves – a feel good ensemble piece that really needs to a boost in the coming months.
The Farewell – driven by Awkwafina’s performance, being helmed by a female director, with an all-Asian cast.
Uncut Gems – driven by Adam Sandler’s performance, and the Safdie brothers’ insane but admired style.
Motherless Brooklyn – an all star cast, led by Edward Norton who gives quite a good performance in the lead and actors might reward the film, even if it’s being somewhat disregarded by the kool kids on Film Twitter.
Best Actor – Frontrunners
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Contenders
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The Report
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Best Actress – Frontrunners
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Contenders
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Thomasin McKenzie, JoJo Rabbit
Elizabeth Moss, Her Smell
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
Mary Kay Place, Diane
Best Supporting Actor – Frontrunners
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Timothee Chalamet, Little Women
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Contenders
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Waves
Ray Liotta, Marriage Story
Best Supporting Actress – Frontrunners
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Contenders
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Taylor Russell, Waves
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Motherless Brooklyn
Elisabeth Moss, Us
Annette Bening, The Report
Best Director – frontrunners
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Sam Mendes, 1917
Contenders
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Craig Brewer, Dolemite Is My Name
Jay Roach, Bombshell
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Todd Phillips, Joker
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Marielle Heller, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Jordan Peele, Us
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Scott Z Burns, The Report
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell
Todd Haynes, Dark Waters
Original Screenplay – frontrunners
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Dolemite Is My Name, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski
Parasite, Bong Joon-Ho, Jin Won Han
Charles Randolph, Bombshell
Contenders
Queen & Slim, Queen & Slim
Waves. Trey Edward Shultz
Ford v Ferrari , Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth
Us, Jordan Peele
The Farewell, Lulu Wang
Booksmart , Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, Katie Silberman
The Report , Scott Z Burns,
Adapted Screenplay – frontrunners
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
The Irishman, Steve Zaillian
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Hustlers, Lorene Scafaria
Contenders
Richard Jewell, Billy Ray
Dark Waters, Mario Correa
Motherless Brooklyn, Edward Norton
Just Mercy, Daniel Destin Cretton, Andrew Lanham
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Cinematography
1917
Ad Astra
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Editing
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Aeronauts
Sound Mixing
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Captain Marvel
Avengers Endgame
Sound Editing
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
Captain Marvel
Avengers Endgame
Costume Design
Dolemite Is My Name
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
The Aeronauts
Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Aeronauts
Captain Marvel
Original Score
1917
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Waves
Ad Astra