There is no doubt that Todd Phillips’ Joker has struck a chord. Where people say it’s dark and nihilistic at its core, the truth of it is, when you look deeper, it is mostly a cry for help. I know that seems like the antithesis of what Phillips, or the origin story for a DC villain might be, but I think that is how it has become such a cultural phenomenon. Were it a film just about a rando guy who was ridiculed and bullied because of a disability and then turned to violence as a way out, without the Joker or comic book framing, I would guess that 1) no one would go see it at all save for the art house crowd and 2) no one would have a problem condemning it as a film that glorifies those who pick up guns and shoot people because they feel wronged by society. Remember two things, though. 1) Travis Bickle kills bad guys to save someone else. Joker kills perceived bad guys as a way of becoming something or someone. And 2) you can’t really pull him apart from the Joker myth and must then confront the idea of just how deeply embedded these comic book myths have become, not just in our culture but in cultures all over the world.
In a very thoughtful and interesting essay, Devin Faraci writes:
This is the shape of the exact political moment in which we find ourselves. We have not lost faith in the system, we have come to understand that it is absolutely and entirely rigged against us. What’s more, we’re starting to realize that it isn’t just the system under which we toil that is rigged against us, it’s all systems everywhere. The protests that have convulsed cities around the world are not always easily broken down into left/right concepts, but rather are often deeply populist in a way that transcends political theology. While many of the protests are solidarity movements they are motivated in large part by grievances that impact the individual – Chile’s fire began with the spark of a subway fare hike.
What I’m sensing with Joker is a profound connection to it by some. And to me that could mean it flies right to the top of the ballots as number one for enough people to land a Best Picture nomination. I also think that there is a good chance Todd Phillips can get in for Best Director for his balls-out daring in making a movie like this. I think he has earned the admiration of the people who matter so that there is a really good chance he gets in with DGA or with Oscar – maybe both or maybe not.
From what I can observe there are three types of people who connect with Joker:
1) Those who feel victimized and/or abused either by others or by the system.
2) Those who like feeling dangerous and freaking people out – in my day it was being a punk rocker.
3) Those who are all in for the universe of super heroes and super villains or the Marvel or DC variety.
The first two are likely to cross over into industry votes. Obviously, the last one won’t.
The only thing that might cause a problem for Joker would be any real life events that might shift public perception at exactly the wrong time. But now is not the time to conclude that anything like that WILL happen. The key to the whole thing is Joaquin Phoenix’s performance. Without the framing of it being a Joker movie, he would still be singled out for his work – though it would land where most of his other work has landed, slightly on the fringes. That it’s all being done within the DC universe and is captivating adult males like it is? Well, that is saying something. I would, therefore, advise people to assume it’s getting in for Best Picture, especially if you’re predicting Phoenix to WIN Best Actor.
As for the other frontrunners this year, it’s really hard to say. Audiences are more reliable than the insulated world of the people who cover the race. While we can be pretty accurate with our predictions at this stage – let’s say 75% – that isn’t the whole story. We also can’t finish this year’s analysis yet without two very big movies coming, three if you count Queen & Slim, which hasn’t had its moment to capture the zeitgeist, which I have a feeling it will, but 1917 and Richard Jewell are the two to watch out for right now – all three of these films will blow a hole through the picture of what we have right now — or not. It’s still a wait and see, which makes it an exciting year, to be sure.
Since my brain often sees patterns, I see many patterns emerging in the Best Picture race.
And herewith, a minor SPOILER WARNING for anyone who hasn’t seen Parasite – skip this next paragraph.
Many of the strongest films this year end in explosive violence: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Joker, The Irishman, Queen & Slim and in its own way, Jojo Rabbit. What each of these films says about that violence is a subject for a whole essay on its own but I keep waiting for more people to see Parasite before delving into it. Violence as actual violence, as redemption, as revenge, with remorse, without remorse and of course, the Americans and the Russians kicking Nazi’s ass right out of the war.
There is another theme running through a lot of the films this year and that’s forgiveness and hope. Remember that idea of the one that wins is the one that stands out as unique to the others. The films that are too much alike can often split up loyalties. What will stand out, I figure, is that impulse towards something upbeat, positive, uplifting. This is especially true with the preferential ballot. Do we think movies with darker themes that won in the past might not have under the new system. The Hurt Locker was the last film with a dark-ish theme to win with the preferential ballot but voters had something to VOTE FOR – the first woman to win Best Director. There was a whopper of a narrative which pitted Kathryn Bigelow against her ex-husband, Jim Cameron with Avatar that was an easy call for voters in the end. But since then, uplifting has won the day, give or take, over downbeat or ambiguous:
2010-The King’s Speech
2011-The Artist
2012-Argo
2013-12 Years a Slave
2014-Birdman — debatably feel good
2015-Spotlight
2016-Moonlight
2017-The Shape of Water
2018-Green Book
That makes me think that our winner THIS year is one with an upbeat ending. So which of our contenders now have a “feel good” ending?
Slight spoiler warning
Upbeat or Feelgood ending
1917 (word has it)
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Two Popes
Dolemite is My Name
Waves
Little Women
Just Mercy
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Motherless Brooklyn
Bombshell
Knives Out
Bittersweet ending that leans upbeat:
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferarri
Dark Waters
The Farewell
Rocketman
Hustlers
Richard Jewell (word has it)
Dark or sad or melancholy ending:
Parasite
Joker
The Irishman
Uncut Gems
Queen & Slim
Judy
The Lighthouse
End Spoiler Warning
So, I think the film you want to predict to WIN you should consider what you think people will be VOTING FOR. It won’t be enough for it to just be GOOD. The heart has to be involved somehow. Films that are SO GOOD they get the heart involved are possible too – the way Birdman was so good it just won everything – although it could be argued that people were VOTING FOR standing up against the onslaught of superhero movies. A vote FOR Joker would be, could be because people feel greatly moved by Phoenix’s performance. A vote FOR The Irishman could be that people just love Martin Scorsese’s films so much they want to reward him for this late career excellence. To know what people are VOTING FOR you have to know what they’ll be voting against.
We are in no way certain of what will win in any category right now, not until we start to see how people vote and for what – so not until the end of this month will be have a good idea.
But here are a few quick and dirty rules to follow:
- Actors rule. Actors. Rule. It’s all about actors.
- For a preferential ballot, voters need something to VOTE FOR.
- Upbeat endings seem to do better in era of preferential ballot.
- Best Picture and Best Director seem to have no problem splitting anymore.
- The jury is still out on how Hollywood “feels” about superhero movies, Netflix, or new technologies overall.
- Will Oscars be so white? I doubt it.
- Does the Trump presidency impact our tastes now and if so, how exactly?
- Are women going to break through and if so, which one? Will critics split again over whom to back?
- Will popular films come to play thus erasing the need for any discussion re: popular films?
- Can a foreign language film as good as Parasite win both categories? Magic Eight Ball says if actors really like it, that could be a big yes. Actors. Rule.
Herewith, my predictions which are likely going to be very off where they’ll be in a month. We’ll be posting the Oscar Squad on Monday too to add to the mix.
Predictions — Best Picture
Frontrunners – will be 8 or 9 most likely but here’s 10
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
1917
The Irishman
Parasite
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferarri
Dolemite is My Name
Joker
Bombshell
Strong Contenders
Little Women
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Two Popes
Hustlers
Queen & Slim
Waves
Us
Just Mercy
Richard Jewell
Knives Out
Dark Waters
The Farewell
Judy
Rocketman
Uncut Gems
Best Director – Frontrunners
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Sam Mendes, 1917
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Strong Contenders
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Todd Phillips, Joker
James Mangold, Ford v Ferarri
Craig Brewer, Dolemite is My Name
Jay Roach, Bombshell
Todd Haynes, Dark Waters
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Marielle Heller, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Jordan Peele, Us
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Best Actor – Frontrunners
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Strong contenders
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Christian Bale, Ford V. Ferrari
Matt Damon, Ford V. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The Report
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Best Actress – Frontrunners
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Strong contenders
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Elizabeth Moss, Her Smell
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Best Supporting Actor – Frontrunners
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Tom Hanks, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite is My Name
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Strong contenders
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Ray Liotta, Marriage Story
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Tim Robbins, Dark Waters
Timothee Chalamet, Little Women
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Waves
Best Supporting Actress – Frontrunners
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite is My Name
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Strong contenders
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters
Taylor Russell, Waves
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Motherless Brooklyn
Elisabeth Moss, Us
Annette Bening, The Report
Original Screenplay – Frontrunners
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
1917, Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Parasite, Bong Joon-Ho, Jin Won Han
Dolemite is My Name, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski
Strong contenders
Queen & Slim, Lena Waithe
Bombshell, Charles Randolph
Waves, Trey Edward Shultz
Ford V. Ferrari , Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth
The Farewell, Lulu Wang
Us, Jordan Peele
Late Night, Mindy Kaling
Booksmart , Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, Katie Silberman
The Report , Scott Z Burns
Adapted Screenplay – Frontrunners
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
The Irishman, Steve Zaillian
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Strong Contenders
Richard Jewell, Billy Ray
Hustlers, Lorene Scafaria
Just Mercy, Daniel Destin Cretton, Andrew Lanham
Motherless Brooklyn, Edward Norton
Cinematography – Frontrunners
1917
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford V. Ferrari
Strong Contenders
Parasite
The Irishman
Little Women
The Aeronauts
Jojo Rabbit
The Two Popes
Waves
Editing – Frontrunners
Ford v Ferarri
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Parasite
Strong contenders
Knives Out
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
Waves
Costume Design – Frontrunners
Dolemite is My Name
Rocketman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Costumes – Strong contenders
Downton Abbey
Knives Out
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Judy
The Aeronauts
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Production Design – Frontrunners
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Ford v Ferarri
Production Design – Strong Contenders
Little Women
The Lion King
Joker
Parasite
Cats
Ad Astra
Sound Editing – Frontrunners
1917
Ford v Ferarri
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Avengers: Endgame
Joker
Sound Editing – Strong Contenders
Ad Astra
Rocketman
The Irishman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Parasite
Us
Sound Mixing – Frontrunners
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Rocketman
Ad Astra
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sound Mixing – Strong Contenders
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Cats
Joker
Animated Feature
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
Missing Link
Abominable
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Visual Effects
The Irishman
Avengers: Endgame
The Aeronauts
1917
The Lion King
Original Score
Marriage Story
Waves
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Ad Astra
That’s it for now. And that’s more than enough!