It’s the kind of movie only Hollywood can make – a big studio film with big stars and a juicy length at 2+ hours. I figured it would land with an A, but I didn’t anticipate an A+. This is a stealthy champ that really has a decent shot at doing a lot better than pundits are estimating, I figure, as Jenelle Reilly tweeted yesterday. It isn’t that Cinemascore “matters” that much. Harriet is another film with an A+. But it tells you a thing or two about a movie’s relationship with a real audience, or rather, its ideal audience. That means – people the marketing team specifically targeted to see the film opening night. Anyone heading out to see Ford v Ferrari is doing so either because they are interested in car racing or the marketing hit them the right way. Basically that means they’re “in the tank” for the film already. How well the score hits is generally how much it meets expectations vis a vis the film the marketing team is selling.
Well, Ford v Ferrari has had a beautifully subtle outreach in marketing and in Oscar campaigning. It was liked by almost everyone in Telluride but for whatever reason it, like other films before it that similarly flew under the radar (Argo, for instance) isn’t really one Oscar folks have been predicting as a defacto frontrunner.
Even now, most are wondering about its chances, from the superb supporting turn by Tracy Letts (you want to study acting? Just watch that performance) to the two leads – Matt Damon has never been better (although he’s always great) and Christian Bale does a complete reversal from Dick Cheney last year to play Ken Miles. The weirdest thing about this movie is that I wasn’t even particularly interested in car racing. Movies about car racing aren’t that exciting. What makes THIS film so good is that it is one of those movies that hits all of the key factors right on target – like the script by Jason Keller, Jez and John-Henry Butterworth, and the directing – James Mangold has made a lot of good movies but I personally think he’s hit a career high with this one, and the acting ensemble. It is, as they say, a good f*cking movie.
There are moments in this film that are hypnotic — most of them are between car and driver and open road. However, Mangold takes us into the hearts and minds of the characters. It’s a story about people who really love to race and build race cars who are tangled up in the corporate machine that doesn’t them do what they want to do. To that end, it is every reflective of the Hollywood machine itself. Too many suits. Too many red folders changing hands. Not enough trust in the people who know what they’re doing. “Trust me,” says Matt Damon’s character throughout — and only when they trust him and his chosen, non-conventional, anti-corporate driver do they soar.
This is a metaphor for producers, directors and the money machine that doubts their every move. Do people get that about the film? I don’t know. Probably not. It doesn’t matter because it is one of the few films made the old fashioned way. And while people might conclude what I mean by that is “films about white men” — that isn’t what I mean by that. Denzel Washington could be the lead and the end result would be the same. It’s a film that gives back more than it takes. It’s just entertaining. If you want to look more deeply, and if you scratch the surface and remember who is doing the telling here, you might find that metaphor about corporate control vs. creative genius.
What that means for the Oscar race in a really competitive wide open year? I don’t know. Do the pundits make the race? I don’t know. All I know is that when there is a movie everybody likes — pretty much — that’s one to watch out for.
We wait, we wait.
know this is offtopic, but the writer of the Watchmen graphic novel injected himself into the war of attrition between Scorsese, Coppola and Marvel Studios: With nuclear disastrous results.
https: // alanmooreworld blogspot. com/2019 /11 /moore-on-jerusalem-eternalism-anarchy. html (His going off the deep end)
He considers BIRTH OF A NATION (the DW Griffith version), one of the most racist movies ever made, as “the first American superhero movie”. Are you forking kidding me? Does he or any of you know the movie came out under a different title – ‘The Clansmen’?
https: // www. history. com/ this-day-in-history/ birth-of-a-nation-opens
Alan…stand down. Please.
I think the context of what he said is pretty important here:
“The superheroes themselves – largely written and drawn by creators who have never stood up for their own rights against the companies that employ them, much less the rights of a Jack Kirby or Jerry Siegel or Joe Schuster – would seem to be largely employed as cowardice compensators, perhaps a bit like the handgun on the nightstand. I would also remark that save for a smattering of non-white characters (and non-white creators) these books and these iconic characters are still very much white supremacist dreams of the master race. In fact, I think that a good argument can be made for D.W. Griffith’s Birth of a Nation as the first American superhero movie, and the point of origin for all those capes and masks.”
Context indeed. Dang FeelingBlue2018, you had me going there for a second.
This film is excellent. Not sure about its BP chances, but it’s a virtual lock for a nomination. And it does feel like a lot of previous crowd pleasing winners such as Green Book, Argo and The King’s Speech.
I saw Ford v Ferrari today and loved it. Great performances and it flowed really well. We had a full theater at 1:00 on Sunday.
I’m probably going to go see it too, after all, since it’s looking so strong… 🙂
I’m probably going to go see it too, after all, since it’s looking so strong… 🙂
Here’s my personal choice of out the contenders I want to see win an Oscar (they could change as I see more films):
Best Picture: Parasite/The Irishman. (I think they are likely to be the two best films and am rooting for one of them to win)
Best Director: Scorsese/ Bong (I want to see Socrsese win regardless if his films BP or not, but Bong could win BD if his film wins BP)
Best Actor: De Niro/Phoenix/Driver (I would’ve said Phoenix without a question if I didn’t hate his film so much and the performance wasn’t so over the top because he should be an Oscar winner by now. De niro deserves a second lead Oscar to join his mate Jack Nicholson. Driver might deserve for two great performances this year)
Best Actress: Zellweger/Woodard/Johansson (Zellweger has just the perfect narrative playing an iconic actress and is a really likable person too, but Woodard could upset if she is nominated and could become only the second women of colour to win in lead. It would lovely to see Johansson finally getting a way overdue Oscar nomination and could surprise as she has two BP contenders.
Best Supporting Actor: Pesci/Dafoe (Pesci is one of the greatest scene stealers ever and a charming guy and it’s no surprise that he delivers a terrific performance on his come back, while Dafoe has been terrific these last few years and deserving to finally win an Oscar)
Best Supporting Actress: Dern (That’s it)
Best Original Screenplay: Baumbach (if this film is going to get recognised anywhere, it has to be screenplay. Baumbach is one of the best writer-director of recent years, and I think his time has come)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Zaillian (Not too bothered about this one but he looks way more deserving than the others)
Best Film Editing: Schoonmaker (No contest, the queen of film editing all the way)
Best Cinematography: Deakins (King of cinematography all the way)
Best Score: Newman (he should finally win)
I thought Phoenix was phenomenal and it would be a darn shame if he didn’t win. Playing a man who laughs when he doesn’t feel like it is some tough shit and he pulled it off brilliantly. Plus eevryone’s favorite weight loss. It’s his to lose. deNiro winning his third for the movie where he isn’t even an MVP according to reviews doesn’t feel right. Driver will have his Joker and win in the future.
Well, I have seen Phoenix do better performances countless times by he will probably win for an over the top performance in a hideous film. There was no subtlety in Joker, that’s for sure. I mean, De Niro probably has a better performance, even if he might not the MVP. I think he deserves another second to cap his great career. Driver has time but he could win this year. I think he will dominate critics awards and coupled with a strong film he will have a strong chance to win.
I think we all need critics awards to start overeacting ha ha. I bet that Indie Spirits will bring overeactions to predictable Indie darlings such as A24 even though anything that isn’t The Farewell is dead in the water.
Outside of screenplay and BD, critics are not solid when it comes to the Oscars. I would be more confident on those categories when critics announce their winners. The acting is completely different. The Globes have a big influence on that acting. BAFTA also. I think it’s see winners accepting awards and reaction to their win. That makes the difference. When I saw Colman win BAFTA and the reaction to it, I knew she would upset Close and win the Oscar. I also, didn’t like Close’s react at SAG and BAFTA. She was good at the Globes but her reaction at SAG was theatrical and she wasn’t best pleased at BAFTA. Colman had the best reaction and crowd loved her winning. That definitely helps.
Oh I know that critics are not solid. That’s why I say overeaction. They like to throw bones to actors who won’t happen. Like Hawke last year.
Let me see
Opening weekend US 31 million (for an Oscar film)
Cinemascore A+
RT 92%
MC 81
… sorry, I think the race for Best Picture may be already over. With this numbers, and the kind of film, plus the reviews about the technicals, it seems Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing may be already in the bag. From those, to Best Picture is a narrow margin (specially for Film Editing for an epic biographical film). Yes, I know, Bohemian Rhapsody did not win Best Picture, but lacked Director, Screenplay noms (which FvF will probably have) and lost BP while winning those three and an acting award.
So, right now, I change my analysis to think FvF is the frontrunner for Best Picture. Film Editing seems extremely likely. And I had ZERO faith in this film being a real contender, beforehand. Looked too formulaic.
Lord spare us.
Which major categories is it going win? That’s what it needs to win BP and can’t win without that.
Editing.
I don’t think this film is getting a screenplay nomination, nor is Mangold a confident nominee at least yet
Mangold’s Logan got an adapted screenplay nomination, despite most predicting it wouldn’t.
In what is known as the weakest year in adapted screenplay in at least a decade. Thus I don’t think that Ford v Ferrari is necessarily going to break into quite a competetive original screenplay lineup
I’ve been saying the whole season that people were underestimating this movie. However I don’t think it wins best pic. I don’t think it wins anything above the line. However if it makes bank and we start seeing Mangold and Bale popping up all bets are off.
I loved it. And wish nothing but the best for it. I wouldn’t pick it as the best movie of the year but if it did win I wouldn’t be mad about it.
on the contrary, it completely fits the bill of so many Oscar winners for Best Picture which in many cases were not even out of question nominees, regarding quality. From A Beautiful Mind to Crash, going through Gladiator or Titanic. FvF is your typical Oscar winner, and given that many thought Logan was underrewarded with just an Adapted Screenplay nomination, Mangold could harvest that feeling, that he could be due for some big rewards. I do not think he is, nor in advance, I like the sound of this film, but I acknowledge it is NOW a true force to be reckoned and it would be suicidal to ignore it. Like Bohemian Rhapsody last year, for extremely different reasons.
That is how I feel, as well.
I wouldn’t go that far, because I don’t think it has the social relevance aspect (based on what I’ve read – I could be wrong), which seems necessary, especially nowadays, but it does look quite strong, indeed…
BoRhap also sucked. So there’s that haha.
BoRhap is an OK film with a bravado ending that sells the overall experience. Could it be better? Certainly, Rocketman is proof what it could have been in the hands of the ultimate director, if given the chance from the beginning. But it is way more trashed that it should be. It was competent most of the time, touching, adapting the actual events into a fantasized version of them (something Rocketman ALSO does and does not get criticisim for) and featured great performances all around (specially when they play, you can actually believe it is Queen on stage). Some people should get over the fact, it won 4 Oscars (3 of them well deserved, the 4th one due to the narrative of Film Editing saving the project) and that was probably #2 in Best Picture final votes (as the 4 wins, including the essential Lead Actor and Film Editing combo). This kind of things happen (it is the AMPAS), and it is not as bad as Crash or A Beautiful Mind or Argo winning Best Picture.
31 mil for Ford v Ferrari wow
Early Oscar predictions (of who’s gonna win):
PICTURE: Parasite
DIRECTOR: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
ACTRESS: Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
SUPP. ACTOR: Al Pacino (The Irishman)
SUPP. ACTRESS: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Marriage Story
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Jojo Rabbit
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Parasite (South Korea)
ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 4
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: American Factory
EDITING: Ford v Ferrari
CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1917
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Parasite
COSTUME DESIGN: Little Women
ORIGINAL SCORE: 1917
ORIGINAL SONG: ”Beautiful Ghosts” (Cats)
SOUND MIXING: Ford v Ferrari
SOUND EDITING: Ford v Ferrari
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Lion King
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Bombshell
I’d be surprised if PARASITE took BP & BD without also winning screenplay… Not that it’s impossible of course.
After last year, I learned my lesson: Never ever predict a foreign language film to win Best Picture.
Leave Bale off your predictions at your own peril. Many saying it’s his best performance. He’s loved by actors and the academy. He’s now in a crowd pleasing true story sports movie. Old white male voters will fall over themselves to vote for him.
Yeah, Bale might not make it in.
BUT.
Actors love him now. And despite a wealth of contenders (De Niro, Banderas, Pryce, Egerton, all down the line) … there might just be a sort of “Bale” slot, if you know what I mean.
He’s certainly good enough to warrant a spot. My opinion.
If it gets Best Pic nom he’s in. Been saying it for months now. If it doesn’t get Best Pic nom he’s out. Tit for tat. But I think it’s in for sure at this point.
He’s done a lot of great work but this was maybe my favorite. And I wish Balfe was in the conversation for supporting. Their relationship was fire. Loved them.
I think if it gets Best Picture AND Best Director nominations, then Bale is in.
With BP alone, the film may just end up with a few tech nods and nothing more.
Having said that, if the film keeps exceeding expectations at this rate, all bets are off.
Balfe needed another good scene or two and I think she’d contend for a nom. She was so good every time she was onscreen.
I think so, too. She reminded me a little of Foy in First Man. (I know she got snubbed, but it wasn’t right.)
I don’t think Bale’s automatically in if it gets a BP nod, but I agree that he won’t get in unless it does.
I actually changed DiCaprio to Bale today:
Bale
Banderas
De Niro
Driver
Phoenix
Well if DiCaprio had to get DiCarpioed for anyone I’d want it to be Bale. 😉
FvF is fall season’s OUATIH. It might happen that Bale gets lead nom and Pitt gets supporting nom so both of these star-driven movies will be represented.
Plus he’s owed a lead actor award especially after last year.
He did really well, so I think he has a shot. That fifth spot is really tight.
It’s just nice having an exciting year where (almost) every weekend there’s something coming out with legit Awards caliber potential… So much catching up to do this year!
Its a good entertaining movie, but overall kind of meh and pedestrian. I felt exactly the same way with Once Upon A Time.
You found both movies meh. Most loved both.
I thought this was spectacular. Finally, a MOVIE MOVIE that nails it — the kind I grew up with decades ago and loved.
I don’t know how Mangold did it all; juggling top-notch performances, a fun script, scintillating editing (including those copious, invigorating race scenes), and a bit of a human story, as well.
Bale was MVP for me (wow), but Damon was excellent, as well (one of my favorite performances of his in a while). And their chemistry really worked, for me. By the way, to me, it is clear that Damon and Bale are equally Lead. Letts was hysterical in his race scene; wouldn’t be averse to a Supporting nom for him, at all. Bernthal, Josh Lucas (one-note villain, but engaging), Catrioina Balfe (SO good in her big scene), Noah Jupe, right on down the line … competent performances from all.
Crisp cinematography, great production design, and a pulsating score aid the proceedings.
The film is a liiiittle long and isn’t a game-changer of cinematic greatness. But I couldn’t have been more pleased with this and, my audience seemed to enjoy it quite a bit, as well. A-
Cinemascore can be pretty misleading. “Joker” received there only B+ and it’s now on 16th Place on IMDb Top 250 and it earned more than 1 billion $. So lower Cinemascore doesn’t mean that a movie won’t be much more loved.
It means many people did not like Joker.
It does not mean that at all. If it was true it wouldn’t be so high on IMDb.
It only means that Cinemascore is unimportant.
Btw, what goes as drama and as comedy/musical at GG?
Drama:
– 1917
– Irishman
– Marriage Story
– FvF
– Two Popes
– Pain & Glory
– Joker
– Little Women
– Queen & Slim
– Waves
– Ad Astra
– Richard Jewell
– Bombshell
– Hustlers
– Us
– Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
– The Report
– Motherless Brooklyn
– Dark Waters
– Just Mercy
– The Lighthouse
Comedy/Musical:
– Outih
– Jojo
– Parasite
– Booksmart
– Dolemite
– Uncut Gems
– Late Night
– The Farewell
– Rocketman
– Judy
– Cats
Is that about right?
Judy apparently goes Drama, Parasite, Pain&Glory and The Farewell will be in foreign language (for Picture at least).
Are those 3 (Parasite, P&G, Farewell) actually ineligible for Drama?
Yes, films nominated for Foreign Language are ineligible in Drama/comedy.
Only for Picture. Many non English spoken films have seen their performers nominated
Banderas is in for Globes because they love stars, but they ALSO are a foreign press. Star power wins there, but if they can do both, it is perfect.
Banderas can be the critics darling and win SAG, BAFTA and GG. He really can
Those 3 compete in Foreign for Picture and either drama or comedy in acting
Actors will compete. And Director. For Picture no film can compete in 2 of the 4 categories (Drama, Comedy/Musical, Animated and Foreign)
Isn’t Hustlers in Comedy?
Really? Hustlers in comedy is just like Martian in comedy
Yeah I know but this increases its chances of getting a nom.
There was an article on this very topic on this site earlier, with the definitive placements. I don’t know, maybe 2-3 weeks ago? (Really not sure about the time frame, though – time goes by weirdly for me. Long story.)
I just remember I actually saved the link:
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2019/10/25/feinberg-on-globes-comedy-and-drama-selections/
Thanks! And how did I forget Knives Out?
Wish everybody else would too. Knives Out was 3/5 To me. Just solid fun, but nothing special. Even a bit boring And badly acted at times.
Interesting. It still hasn’t come out in my country and I’m still really looking forward to it, because even if it turns out bland, it’s still the type of movie that me and my whole family will enjoy together.
Ok, now that it currently has a score of 81 in Metacritic which is “universal acclaim” instead of “generally favorable reviews” (80 or lower), I think it has every single components to be the big gun in the race.
Tracy Letts is such a gift to creative worlds – writer of great note, and his screen performances of late have been superb. His lead with Debra WInger a couple of years ago – The Lovers – was fab, and his supporting turn in LadyBird was so gentle and gave such heart to the script. And he was great with Rebecca Hall in Christine. He is the MVP in most things i’ve seen him in.
Should’ve been nominated for Indignation in 2016
Like I wrote on the Predictions article, I thought it was a GOOD solid movie with good craftsmanship & a really good Bale performance but didn’t wow me like Parasite & Joker. The reason to vote for the movie would be to keep good studio movies alive, & that may be enough of a narrative for it to get nominated! I think Bale should go Supporting, imo there’s no such thing as category displacement, I think you should campaign in whatever category you could win in!
It’s not great cinema. But boy, does it do well what it aimed to. Classic movie-making magic, for my money.
Money rules awards, bitches. It’s gonna be nominated for BP.
I admit I’ve contributed to this. I’ve seen it twice already and recommended it to everyone.
If Ford v Ferrari makes best picture I can see Christian Bale getting nominated. Such a great performance. Loved it.
Been saying this for months. He’s gonna be nominated.
As I said before, I really think that despite a wealth of contenders, it’s almost like there’s a reserved Bale slot nowadays. He’s great in the film, too. Damon, too.
This. I feel like Damon is being overlooked here. He was amazing as well.
Midway (Emmerich ’19): Finally! I thought Alita was gonna be the only Hollywood blockbuster I would enjoy this year. (C+)
It’s not that good I give it a B.
I agree. It wasn’t all that to be honest. I tried to like it, but I gave it a similar score as Once Upon A Time, which was mediocre.
Weird. A B is actually a really good grade. Not sure what grading system you grew up with
Wonder if Bale can be a serious contender for BAFTA, I mean, if he gets the nomination it would be his 5th, other times he lost to british actors or british characters (Rush is australian but movie 100% british and it smashed that edition winning awards left and right).
Bale is a serious contender for everything as of now. He’s playing Ken Miles who was robbed of his award at Le Mans. Voters are gonna love his emotional and showy performance. I suspect Bale will get nominated over Banderas at the GG thus putting an end to the latter’s chances for the rest of the season. I doubt Antonio will recover.
Bale emerging and making the cut doesn’t sound as much of a long shot as it did a week ago but if he does, I doubt the one he will knock out of the quintet will be Banderas, his Oscar narrative is just too damn strong.
I’m founding this on the idea that Banderas performance is subtle and his movie has no shot at a nomination. Forget about Pryce getting snubbed. He’s getting a GG nomination and he has a good shot at winning BAFTA. Don’t underestimate him.
Pryce’s performance is also subtle. Plus, Pain & Glory is almost certainly getting a Foreign Language Globe nomination (which makes it ineligible in Drama anyway).
Having seen both he’s not as subtle as Banderas but that’s not the main point. HFPA will nominate Pryce and BAFTA too. He’s in no matter how much we try to deny it. The Academy won’t snub him in this situation. Banderas is obviously a lot more vulnerable.
Honestly I’m torn. I like so many performances: Bale, Pryce, Banderas, Phoenix, Murphy, Egerton. Haven’t seen Driver and De Niro yet but I’ve heard only good things.
Banderas is his studio’s only nominee so they’ll push hard. Pryce is an internal competition to Driver, DeNiro and Murphy (all 4 are each other’s internal competition). So we need to see who’s starting to win to assess the hierarchy of Netflix backing. They won’t get all 4 in Oscar line up.
I’m not sure whether you mean the film or Banderas so I’ll mention this just in case: the film being in foreign language film doesn’t make Banderas ineligible for best actor in a drama, think of for example Huppert in Elle
I meant the film, replying to Mason’s line that the movie has no shot at a nomination. I learned my lesson after my brainfart earlier about actor ineligibility 😀
Thing is there are 11 contenders in Best Actor who are all in there with a viable shot still and with only 5 slots and no precursors yet, it is anyone’s guess now who will make the cut and who won’t. There is an early quintet (Banderas, De Niro, DiCaprio, Driver, Phoenix) that emerged after The Irishman debuted late September and even now feels sorta ironclad but at the same time there ARE at least 6 others in the mix, any one of whom could still just knock out a presumed lock in the end. For example, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Egerton and / or Hauser made the cut even though both are under the radar at the moment. And for the record there are legit pros and cons against every single one of the 11, even the ones presumed to be absolute locks by many.
Christian Bale
Antonio Banderas
Roman Griffin Davis
Robert De Niro
Leonardo DiCaprio
Adam Driver
Taron Egerton
Paul Walter Hauser
Eddie Murphy
Joaquin Phoenix
Jonathan Pryce
Yeah I agree, it might feel ironclad but it isn’t. And we’re learning new things as we get closer to the GG nominations. HFPA will set the tone either we like it or not. I remember around this time we already had some tea that they loved Malek and BR. Even so many people still predicted ASIB and Cooper because they refused to pay attention to the voters and what they like. Most of them aren’t shy about it and sometimes they will hand it to you on a silver platter.
I feel like it’s happening again this season. Everyone will predict The Irishman or Marriage Story winning and The Two Popes will take it in the end. Watch it happen.
I’m actually taking Sasha and HE teas on Marriage Story seriously and think it might end up Carol’d. I think it’s safe in Actress and Supporting Actress because Netflix has no one else in these categories, but the rest is shaky af.
The thing is though the HFPA is voted on by 90 journalists and if my memory serves me well, only 1 is an Oscar voter. They also have 10 Best Actor slots and 2 winners so while anyone making the cut and going all the way there will definitely benefit from the hype that surrounds the Golden Globes, the REAL deal this season will be making the SAG cut that is 5 slots per category just like the Oscars and unlike the Golden Globes is voted on by thousands of Oscar voters, along with of course actors working primarily in different mediums.
I agree SAG is important but if Banderas is snubbed by GG and nominated by the industry at SAG he still needs to get BAFTA otherwise I don’t see him getting in the final lineup. He needs two big precursors to get in. One just isn’t enough. And I haven’t seen enough enthusiasm for his performance from HFPA. He’s off to a bad start imo but I might be wrong and he might get SAG and BAFTA noms.
I think he can miss GG as long as he gets SAG, not the other way around. And yes Bafta will be probably the make or break moment for him since they do tend to embrace foreign language performances a lot more than the Academy so he absolutely must get that nomination not to hurt his chances in the eyes of Oscar voters
Banderas is too subtle for SAG. If he misses GG he won’t get a nom.
The two predominantly foreign language performances in Best Actor that received Oscar nominations this decade were Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010) and Demian Bichir for A Better Life (2011). BOTH made the cut at the Oscars with a single major precursor nod (Bafta and SAG, respectively) and without any love from any other key organisations including the HFPA.
Long story short, even if Banderas misses the GG and SAG, as long as he gets a Bafta nod, he will remain in consideration. For the record I think he will get all three of those precursor nominations.
In another year maybe but if both TTP and Ford v Ferrari get in BP and he only hits one precursor then he’s certainly getting snubbed.
We’ll see. For the record I don’t believe in “certainly getting snubbed” kind of statements at any point in the race but most definitely not in November before a single precursor chimed in.
We have one or two out of nowhere nominations every single year, the reason why “certainly getting snubbed” doesn’t fly with me.
Yes, those are my 11, as well. 6 great performances will fall by the wayside for 5 other great performances. Amazing, huh?
Question is which 6 and which 5. There will be massive outrage on nominations morning whatever the verdict is here.
I kind of agree because this reminds me of Hawke. If they love Bale then they won’t give a damn about Banderas’ critical acclaim. I’m more and more convinced DiCaprio won’t make it in. At this point in time my BA lineup is: Driver, Phoenix, De Niro, Pryce and Banderas last hanging by a thread. Bale is really close.
Well I’m changing my GG predictions after this and the recent tea about The Two Popes (HFPA really loves it). Imo both are getting in Drama. So my lineup is The Irishman, Marriage Story, The Two Popes, Ford v Ferrari and…Joker. Still have to see 1917. Little Women is probably getting snubbed.
Are the Globes going to give 3 out of 5 Drama spots to Netflix? I think Sasha said on the podcast that they seem to like spreading the wealth among studios.
They LOVE The Two Popes. I know I might seem crazy but if they are snubbing one of them it’s not TTP.
I’ll be laughing my ass off if TTP wins the Drama Globe.
What about Close giving the award to her “ex” Pryce. Oh, sorry, i forgot,
didnt mean to hurt you…
I don’t get it lol. Why hurt me?
Not you Mason, in general and for last year’s heartbreak connected to this year’s possible surprise
Ah…gotcha 🙂
It’s going to be Marriage Story. I think, of Netflix movies, Popes and Irishman get in. Pryce is in. Jury’s out on whether Driver, DeNiro or Murphy is the second from Netflix to make the line up. But it’s going to be Pryce and someone.
Driver is 100% in. There is no universe in which he gets snubbed, at the Oscars and at the GG. He is the closest to a lock for a nod (not a win) there is.
If he does not win the Oscars or GG-Drama, he will be at least top 3 most voted.
I think that Phoenix will win and will sweep. There cannot be any other way. Too iconic, too resonant. That said, I hope you are right about Driver nom. Major talent, he’ll win for his Joker. I really don’t want anyone to be the actor who upset Phoenix. It’s his time.
” There cannot be any other way.”
Yes, there is! He is frontrunner right now, but it’s not 100% guaranteed he is winning. The Academy proved other times that they vote for whoever they want, regardless of public opinion.
He might win but it is gonna be a close call. Not an easy win, definitely.
“That said, I hope you are right about Driver nom”
I am right hahaha. Some rookie at AwardsWorthy forum recently said that he thought that Adam Driver could get snubbed and got mocked and laughed at like he was insane. There is, like, zero % chances he gets snubbed. Even if he loses, he will be 2nd most voted.
well, that rookie sounds like me ha ha. I’m detecting drop in Marriage Story hype now that it’s far from high brow festivals and critical circles. The tea hasn’t been good either. So we’ll see. I’m confident in Scarlett and Laura for they don’t have to battle internal competition, while Driver, deNiro, Murphy and Pryce are all fighting for Netflix attention. And since driver’s character is fictional, I’d say he’s more vulnerable for AMPAS and precursors prefer historical figures. Now you might say Joker is fictional too which is true but Phoenix is in the cultural phenomenon and Driver isn’t. What else AwardsWorthy says?
“What else AwardsWorthy says?”
They hadn’t talked about Driver for a long time. He resurfaced as a subject when an user said that he would get snubbed. Check it by yourself. Click to enlarge:
https://i.imgur. (join) com/e28adJz.png
Apparently it was such a remarkable comment it got even mentioned in other thread when another person suggested Irishman would be snubbed.
https://i.imgur. com/esCXk1E.png
” I’m detecting drop in Marriage Story hype now that it’s far from high brow festivals and critical circles.”
The movie hasn’t even been released on Netflix yet. It’s gonna peak at the right time. Just wait and see.
Wait, I recognize those names from AwardsWatch Forum before they went registration only. Did they change the name or did some people found their own forum?
I do not know. I was never a member of Awards Watch forum.
I wasn’t a member either but I read their posts while they were public. They went private/registration earlier this year. Big loss for Oscar watchers for they have some good predictors there. Plus, I’ve never heard of Awards Worthy. is it old or recent? that might hint at whether it’s associated with Watch or entirely separate thing with crossover posters (who also kept their Watch avatars hmmm).
**I was never a member or reader of Awards Watch forum.
Awards Worthy from what I know is the new Awards Watch forum. It has been renamed this year to “Awards Worthy”. I forgot the reason, but there was a very specific reason.
That makes sense. Thanks. Sucks that they are membership only and I can’t bother with that. I tend to forget passwords and wouldn’t comment anyway. I liked to read but I guess their switching to private may have something to do with that one of their members tried to take down Vallelonga (sp?) with that 9/11 tweet.
“may have something to do with that one of their members tried to take down Vallelonga (sp?) with that 9/11 tweet”
It was not I read. They wouldn’t admit the reason even if it was really because of that anyways.
makes sense. Post teas whenever you can. I read Golderby but it isn’t the same. Far less frequent updates and far less fun.
I believe in Joker too.
they loved two popes? where did you get this information from?
He’s probably following the voters on Twitter, Facebook or Insta. There’s also tea from some parties and then we have the podcasts. And it’s not only HFPA. The Academy loves it too apparently.
Joker’s audience reception, historical boxoffice run, amazing staying power are big Fuck You to Cancel Culture like no other movie. I think it’ll get nominated at least.
“It was liked by almost everyone in Telluride but for whatever reason it, like other films before it that similarly flew under the radar (Argo, for instance) isn’t really one Oscar folks have been predicting as a defacto frontrunner.”
In what world was Argo ever an award season underdog?
Google “Argo Telluride” and you find a whole bunch of articles from placed like The Hollywood Reporter, Indiewire, and Deadline immediately declaring it a major Oscar player instantly. Aside from the one bump in the road where it missed the director nomination it was pretty much the easiest cakewalk to the Oscar podium any movie has ever walked.
I think right after it screened for critics, Roger Ebert said he had just seen the Oscar Best Picture winner for that year
Exactly – strange claim…
Really enjoyed it. A really well-made picture. Like Mangold has been making all his career. I guess this is the year his piece is gonna “connect” with those people.
Officially begun to compile my best of decade list…I feel confident I don’t have to wait for anything else this year…mistake you say?
Not gonna lie. I’ve loved it but I don’t think it’s getting in.
OK, so what nominations are we expecting here ?
It looks solid in
Picture
Cinematography
Editing
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
It would have to be a massive Guild favourite to be perceived strong enough for
Director
Original Screenplay
Lead Actor (Bale)
Costume Design
Art Direction
And it would probably have to become the actual frontrunner to score nods in
Lead Actor (Damon)
Supporting Actor (Letts)
Supporting Actress (Balfe)
For now I’m going with the first five categories. It will be interesting to see if it could get more or even come close to top5 (BP+BD) or even the win. At this point anything CAN still happen and it’s not like we have an obvious BP frontrunner anyway.
JP could have been on the money all along, this could be the film all voters will like / love and none will hate. I’m seeing it tomorrow, I have high hopes now.
Picture
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Original Score
I think Bale is in. Not sure Letts or Balfe can sneak in despite the fact they would be on my ballot no question. And yes If they do make it this is now a threat to win.
I don’t think it wins anything above the line however. Yet.
For now my guess would be nominations in the first five categories and one or two tech wins. I think this could be a very peculiar year in BP / Best Actor because I am fully expecting three films to make the cut in BP (OUATIH, The Irishman, Ford v Ferrari) and somehow I’m still not sure any of their leads will make the cut in Best Actor. That category has 11 viable names still (see above) and while at first it seems easy to pick five, I just can’t rule out any of the remaining six. Not yet anyway.
For what it’s worth, Bale was barely on my radar before his film popped in epic fashion this week both critically (81 MC now) and commercially (31M OW). Now I definitely see him as a major threat for a nomination.
P.S. I’m all for a Caitriona Balfe surprise in Best Supporting Actress on Nominations Morning, such a criminally underrated actress. How she isn’t a celebrated leading lady / franchise star / auteurs’s muse by now, I don’t know. She possesses the most winning combination of all : a rare, natural, timeless look that would have made her a movie star in any decade since moving picture was invented; and raw acting talent. I hope exposure from this film will get her the feature opportunities she thoroughly deserves.
It will probably get to 150M without breaking a sweat, even more than what the other high-profile original studio pic with two big male stars did earlier this year. These results will go a long way for studio originals in the future.
So FvF is probably looking at a nice hold in its second weekend (A+ Cinemascore), then its third weekend will be the lucrative Thanksgiving frame, then a somewhat slow post-Thanksgiving frame but since it should be in the high single digits the very least on its fourth weekend, it will be still viable when the massive Holiday weekdays kick in in the second half of December and that will be followed by the Oscar nominations in early January that should secure it more business (and theatres) once again.
Long story short, this will be a very, VERY leggy and impressive run. It was needed considering the price tag but it is nice to see that it could actually deliver it. Not many studio originals can nowadays, even when they are great with big stars (Ad Astra).
will be nominated, will have some surprise upset winning but not in BP/BD.
It might be a tiny bit too early in mid-November to start predicting upsets…
Also deserving of note: I see Tracy Letts sneaking a Supporting Actor nomination.
Me, too. And if Balfe had another good scene or two, I’d think she would have a shot, as well. She was quite good every time she was on; particularly her driving scene.
This film will be nominated for Oscar. It is making impressive 30M box office this week. (made impressive 11M on Friday). It is the big studio movie that everybody likes. Remembering the great big films of the 80’s and the 90’s, like The English Patient and Braveheart. Have an A+ Cinemascore. Big actors, big acting. If reaches 200M-300M to home box office, watch out for an upset at the Oscars. There is precedent – Chariots of Fire and Rocky -. I am very glad that orginial films are catching the audiences more than the remakes and the reboots. Who knows the studios wake up!
What is puzzling to me if this film is so beloved is that why didn’t it land in the TIFF People’s Choice top 3?
It lost to BIG players such as Parasite and Marriage Story, both of which will likely get a BP nod.
However there is a limit of 10 nominees at the Oscars, so there is room for FvF