There are, it appears to be, several schools of thought where Best Actor is concerned.
Theory #1 – Adam Driver has it sewn up, partly because of past work, partly because he also appears in The Report, and partly because of his performance which has struck a chord with critics and bloggers.
Theory #2 – No way, are you crazy? Nobody is beating Joaquin Phoenix. It’s just something you can sense. It’s TIME for this amazing, versatile, chameleon-like actor in a film that upended the superhero genre entirely and has soared past a billion bucks worldwide.
Theory #3 – What kind of crack are you smoking? It’s not going to be either of them. The Academy needs to FEEL something about the person they’re voting, and it isn’t going to be two people who are marginally likable. Rather, it’s going to be Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes or Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory — two performances that touch the heart and the heart leads.
Theory #4 – Eddie Murphy’s time has come. How long is Hollywood going to hold out on major wins for black actors? The last time a black actor won in lead was in 2006, 13 years ago – Forest Whitaker for Last King of Scotland. And it isn’t JUST that. He plays a heroic character (a heroic filmmaker, no less), though not quite to the level of Pryce. In his own time and that place, Rudy Ray Moore made a difference.
Theory #5 – Nah, man, this whole scene is WRONG. It isn’t going to be any of them. Robert De Niro has this thing LOCKED because he’s giving the performance of his career in The Irishman, and he’s only won once in lead (once in supporting). This might be his last shot at a major role this meaningful and profound.
Theory #6 – You are all WAY WAY WAY underestimating Ford v Ferrari. When that thing catches fire it will win many of the top categories.
Mitigating factors —
Box office – Netflix faces a wee bit of a snag when it comes to measuring success vis-à-vis Best Actor. Only two really can walk in with a massive load — Joaquin Phoenix, and either Matt Damon or Christian Bale for Ford v. Ferrari. Netflix can’t boast box office, even though Eddie Murphy would plausibly have sold more tickets than any of their other contenders. Dolemite could have walked in the door with a $100 million take, but it didn’t have that chance. Neither will The Irishman, Marriage Story or The Two Popes. The Netflix model is not about box office. And while box office doesn’t necessarily matter when it comes to the Oscars anymore, there is no doubt that in a competitive year it might HELP distinguish one from the other. Without it, you have to rest on:
Likability of Star
Likability of Role
Likability of Movie
If you pack on some box office clout it makes it a little easier to see how Phoenix to stand apart. Far apart. One billion worldwide is shocking and impressive. No one can really compete with that. So either it will matter or it won’t. Now, people will get very haughty if you bring this up but in the Oscar race perception is everything. It is a testosterone thing. It rises if you think about a “winner” and drops if you think about a “loser.” It sounds like a wacky theory but it will serve you well in Oscar predicting. Phoenix is a testosterone riser because of that box office number, and it just puts a halo over his performance and him. Remember what our leader Bob Dylan says, people mostly want to be on the side that’s winning.
Both Gold Derby and the Gurus of Gold have Adam Driver in the number one spot. This is not my personal theory about how this going to go because regular people have not yet seen Marriage Story. Driver’s performance, while impressive, is not unequivocal. I guess the theory here is that the Academy is going to go ALL IN with Netflix, giving Irishman Best Picture and Driver Best Actor. Color me a wee bit cautious on that front. Put it this way: I will have to see it to believe it. Remember, there is no box office factored in with either of these movies so word of mouth is going to matter a lot – not blogger/critic word of mouth but by actual people out there in the world.
Keep an open mind is all I’m saying. I guess what perplexes me is why Phoenix isn’t the front runner at these two sites when he seems to me to be very nearly locked to win. Is it the worry that the film is too dark for Academy members? Heck, if you think Joker is dark, try The Lighthouse or Uncut Gems. If we’re talking dark. Joker is mild by comparison. I am only half-kidding there. Not only that, but he’s an international symbol at this point. It’s the biggest thing Phoenix has ever done. How does anyone top that?
So whether or not Driver wins depends on whether the regular people out there in the world are as in the tank for Marriage Story as the bloggers are. Maybe they will be, maybe they won’t be. I certainly don’t know how this is all going to turn out, but I guess I am a little surprised that there is such a strong consensus at this early stage. My own opinion is that if The Two Popes gets in for Best Picture there is very little chance Driver will beat Pryce. If it doesn’t and it’s just Marriage Story and The Irishman, then Driver has a slightly better chance. So if you’re predicting The Two Popes to be strong enough to get in for Best Picture, then you’d better be predicting Pryce because that is how that is going to go.
Here is Gurus of Gold:
Here is Gold Derby:
What all of this tells me and in looking at the charts is that there is a definite bubble where Oscar punditry is concerned, and I would be very skeptical of that bubble at this stage. No one really knows how it is going to go, but there is a very good chance it all switches around in a few weeks.
We just have to see how the films land, but keep an open mind. This is all very fluid and malleable.
Reading everything that’s being discussed here, I’m starting to lean towards agreeing with Sammy that Jonathan Pryce fits the winner’s profile best at the moment…
Still praying for Pattinson sneaking in
Driver
Phoenix
then:
Pattinson
Bale
Banderas
or
Pattinson
Murphy
Banderas
1. phoenix
2. de niro
3. dicaprio
4. murphy
5. driver / alt. pryce
No way Driver is only 5th
He is 100% a lock
if they take murphy they will be racists, and dicaprio would be as much as a shock..
if netflix has 2 spots, between deniro, murphy, driver and pryce… deniro will prevail by the strenght of the movie he is in, and murphy because oscars so white.
But Driver has the acting. Many AMPAS voters already expressed their devotion to Driver, including Charlize Theron and Alec Baldwin who will probably vote for him. Scorsese said this year that Driver is the best actor of his generation.
There is a reason why he is #1 on GoldDerby… and if you look at previous years (I looked up 4 previous years), the top 3 at this point (2/3 of November) never miss.
So I just saw 2 of the actor contenders over the past 2 days – the first being Pain and Glory and I just really don’t want to talk about it much because I feel like it’s universally loved around here but I thought it was pretty good but I was far from wowed. It felt to me like a master of Cinema going for a massive unrestrained ego trip throwing everything he can at the screen then demanding you applaud and like yes it’s a very well made ego trip but urgh whatever I gave it 3/4 because I do recognise it is a very well made movie but yeah… And Banderas is very deserving of awards attention but I wouldn’t give him the award.
On the opposite side of the spectrum is Ford v Ferrari and I know it probably looks bad to say this right after criticising Pain and Glory, you can call my tastes low brow if you wish but I thought it was fantastic, it becomes my sixth 4/4 rating of the year (for the record that rating for me doesn’t mean it’s perfect to me I give that rating if it is to me just a really brilliant achievement). Sure, it’s not very deep but it is pure, brilliant, old school filmmaking in the best way possible. The performances are great all around paired with great working, the technical aspects are so well done, those driving sequences are amazing – and I don’t even like car racing… Yeah I can’t wait to see it again. Sorry not sorry. Bale will be in my top 5 make performances at the end of the year. I had a great time with it. Oh what a brilliant year it’s been for film.
P&G plays it fair with the audience… it clearly shows, not hints, it is autobiographical. A self-portrait. Evidently, has ego, but Almodovar does not paint a so nice version of himself (drugs, weakness, creative crises), and basically opens a door into himself, for the audience, maybe to understand better his art. Remember, this is the 3rd entry into an unplanned autobiographical trilogy, Almodovar has made… Law of Desire, then Bad Education and then this, his final entry, which goes full circle, as Sabor, the fictional movie, seems to be Law of Desire.
That brings me to compare with the other egotrip of the year, Tarantino’s. It is not autobiographical but self referential, showing off how much he loves a period of cinema, and part of his biggest influences, BUT in the end, creatively wise, it is a minor film, too unfocused, badly conceived as a mere rehash of the ideas of Inglorious Basterds (even the ranch scene basically mirrors in tension, the tavern scene of IB). While certainly entertaining and ultimately satisfying, the film fails because is way more about QTs genius than about the story itself. He even makes crystal clear that this is an ego trip in which he challenged himself to tackle one of the biggest taboos in Hollywood, the Sharon Tate murders, and knowing everyone was wondering how he was going to do it and leave unscratched, by showing a clip stating “and now the moment you all have been waiting for” (in case anyone missed the point) which ultimately renders everything we saw in advance, mostly worthless beyond the build up for the last sequence, which when it unfolds, makes worthless the point Leo’s character arch to try to revive his career, beyond the point of the old Hollywood not dying and willing to embrace the New Hollywood as a merger. A fairy tale, that is mishandled by QT’s ego. Objectively speaking a great, great film not without obvious and glaring flaws, but a film that shouldn’t be in the conversation over way more honest work, like Pain and Glory or Us, just to name two examples.
Not to mention than to see QT nominated this year in original for this screenplay, is only tolerable, if it is not at the price of a snub of Parasite, Pain and Glory or Us, which are three wayyyyyy more intelligent, honest, original, sharper and challenging screenplays.
Hey Chus, do you think Phoenix is locked for the Best Actor Award? Who can beat him?
Phoenix is far from locked for the win. I think that if Joker loses BP nom, he is not winning. Who beats him? It will depend on the precursors, but so far I think Banderas has the best narrative (overdue, his performance has shocked most that he thought was just a Hollywood action star, and discovered he has been a talented disciplinary actor all along, and performers will be impressed by how he commands a film avoiding any kind of Oscar clip but merely with a subtle calm performance in total control of his body and eyes). After him, I think de Niro, if they go gaga for The Irishman. Driver, I think, may be too young to win, and it will be only his 2nd nom, and being the star of the blockbuster that will block the media during voting process, may cause a fatigue of him. Hauser and MacKay are playing the underdog card, as Brody back in 2002, they could win if nominated. Murphy, too, but I have it difficult to believe they are going to give him the award for playing an iteration of himself… I think Sandler has a WAY better shot, if he gets the nom, but I think Sandler will suffer the Carrey omen… too histrionic and in his case so many bad films wasting his obvious talent, that it would be horrendous to award him on the first chance. Bale could win only in a FvF sweep.
But if Joker is nominated for BP, Phoneix wins it, unless Pain and Glory somehow gets nominated for Picture, too (won’t happen, most likely).
I’ll be seeing FvF very soon myself, most probably. Expect to like it a lot (already did, even before you reinforced it with the above). Have no idea how I’m likely to react to P&G. Sometimes I like or even love that kind of movie, sometimes it does nothing for me… I do always appreciate the craft, at the very least. 🙂
OK, I’m waiting for early MC / RT scores because I can’t seem to get a proper read on the RICHARD JEWELL reception. The three proper reviews I’ve seen so far read “good not great” however the tweets from reliable pundits like Sasha and Feinberg, are very positive.
At the same time there could be controversy about the “female journalist trading sex for info” scene and also for the “media and FBI are the villains” concept that while true in this specific case, may not be a message many would want to spread in this very moment in time when the President is actively vilifying the free press and the intelligence agencies, both being on the right side of history this time around.
Having said that as soul crushing as it is to admit, what I think are potential cons COULD actually help the Box Office a great deal : if Middle America and Trump lovers everywhere realise this is a film from a Republican director, “proving once again” that the media and FBI are the villains just like Trump has been insisting on ever since they rightfully went after him, then this film could actually be a Box Office hit. Not American Sniper level, clearly, but a bigger moneymaker than many would have thought.
And if it turns into a hit in December AND gets good/great reviews at least (65-75 MC) then this film could be a thing at the Oscars for sure.
For what it’s worth, as long as it is a great film (= top notch 1. acting 2. writing 3. directing 4. production values), I have no problem with it getting in. I just wish people wouldn’t use it to make questionable, dangerously generalised arguments against the media and intelligence agencies at large. Hopefully that won’t be the case.
just read the Variety review… seems mixed, praises Hauser but certainly doesn’t make him look as an awards contender, nor the film itself.
The actors is what everyone seems to be agreeing on. Rockwell, Hauser, and especially Kathy Bates
That bodes well for the movie then. If it scores multiple SAG nominations that would signal support from Actors aka the biggest Academy branch.
The table shows a higher number of people predicting Phoenix win, yet he is 2nd. Why so?
I’m guessing it very polarized – some pundits list him as their number one threat, while others think he’ll be fourth or fifth or just sneak in.
It’s like college sports polls. Sometimes the number 2 or 3 team has more number 1 VOTES than the team that’s actually sitting at the top of the polls.
With that second poll, it’s sorted by odds (and Driver has the best odds, apparently).
I’m not keen on The Joker, but at least it’s wildly different from all the mild biopics out there. Phoenix works hard to flesh out a fictional character, rather than having his fellow actors swoon over portraying a “real life” person.
Let’s see how many of the acting nominations are hogged up by all the biopics. The Two Popes, Dolomite is My Name, Judy, Ford v. Ferrari, Richard Jewell, Bombshell, and on and on.
It’s been said many times before, but television is where the original storytelling is at. It’s like cinema is fighting to stay relevant, mistaking biopics for prestige or event film making, and instead suffering as most people shrug and tune into HBO, Netflix, and Amazon Prime. I mean, is the public really clamoring to see a History Channel knockoff with better production values? Sometimes, I guess.
There will be a collective groan when great fictional characters are sidelined for performances of “real” people. We’ll all shake our heads when Parasite, The Farewell, Us, The Lighthouse, Waves and many other noteworthy original films with fascinating characters (and wonderful performances) are shunned for Bale, Theron, Zellweger, Pryce, Hanks, Erivo, and other mostly white performances. There’s an endless amount of mediocre storytelling to be had with these biopics, and each year we are have to endure it. Sometimes people of color can get a nomination or win from them, but it usually has to be in a Civil Rights drama, a genre fraught with its own set of dull cliches.
Some years we will get an outstanding biopic like Raging Bull, GoodFellas, The Favourite, The Social Network, or 12 Years a Slave, films that deserve a Best Picture nomination or even a win, but it’s certainly not EVERY year.
The occasional outstanding performance(s) from an otherwise by the numbers biopic – Monster, Capote, The King’s Speech, Reversal of Fortune, The Last King of Scotland, etc. – and the Academy could justify an average of one or two biopic performances from the year.
Right now we get way more than that, with about a quarter to a third of all nominees clogging up the proceedings.
Please, please, please Glenn Close or Joaquin Phoenix, resist the urge to turn to a biopic for Oscar gold, not when you’ve already provided Alex Forrest and Arthur Fleck, both of whom will inspire audiences for years to come.
Driver
Phoenix
DiCaprio
DeNiro
Banderas
I like this line up. It’s low on cliche biopic pap.
No one is talking about DiCaprio, so I wonder if he is the “shock elimination” so to speak if De Niro, Banderas, and Pryce all get in. Or do they overlap too much in voting appeal?
Joker has no chance at BP because of the ranked ballot. Too many people hate it to get it the win. But theoretically an actor can win Best Actor with 20% of the vote +1, so the hate for Joker that is out there doesn’t matter so much. All Phoenix needs is to have more people who LOVE his performance than another nominee, and he wll have that.
No need to lament Phoenix’s status as the runner up according to Gold Derby and Gurus. isn’t it bad to be an early frontrunner? That said, Phoenix is winning. Performance is just too iconic. Every aspiring actor will want to have his Joker. Driver will want to have his Joker. It’s Phoenix time.
It is not early to be frontrunner at this point. DiCaprio for instance was an early frontrunner in September.
Mid November is usually quite more accurate with results. 2019 was an exception with Bradley being #1 at this point.
Phoenix is frontrunner, Goldderby has him 2nd but the table shows a higher number of people predicting his win. Take a look at it. Thats weird.
Agreed. It is weird. I don’t know if they don’t want to jinx him or don’t want him to win but he should be #1 indeed going by GD numbers.
Just watched The Irishman. Going in, I admit I was skeptical – kinda worn out on crime Scorsese movies. But I thought it was very solid.
I’d mostly agree with this review by James Berardinelli: “The film’s lengthy middle section, which comprises about 65% of the running time, is damn near perfect – two-plus hours of arresting drama as good as anything Scorsese has ever put on film. But the movie suffers from an unfocused first 45 minutes and a meandering final half-hour.”
(Okay, even the middle isn’t his best work, but def the best part of the film. The ending feels like a 40 min epilogue that makes the epilogue of the final Lord of the Rings movie seem succinct.)
Not sure I want to watch it again, but liked it more than thought – but definitely not my Top 5 this year. All that said, I would be a bit surprised if it won. Just doesn’t seem a film many voters will “love” as much as just respect. And I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if De Niro missed a nomination. Also, not sure Pacino was the right pick for Hoffa, just because he’s always “Pacino” to me these days. But, again, a solid film overall for me.
Phoenix is the most overdue in terms of an actor who, unlike Banderas and Pryce, got some Academy love in the past with his 2 noms and handful of “could/should-have-been” noms.
and iconic performance and movie. It isn’t even close.
Not seeing Eddie Murphy perceived as “his time has come” in any way. Didn’t he walk out or try to walk out of the ceremony once he lost for Dreamgirls? That kinda stuff does not endear. And then he did Norbitt, a bunch of Shreks and Meet Dave…imagine that.
… he is also one of the highest-grossing movie stars in the history of film and widely considered to be a great talent, as well. He is also an Oscar nominee.
If I’m being honest I don’t see him making the cut this year, but reducing his career to “Norbitt, a bunch of Shreks and Meet Dave” is just wrong.
P.S. A week ago I wasn’t seeing Bale getting near the top5 either. Now I’m predicting him for the nomination and this was just one week. Long story short a lot can happen for Murphy in the next two months, for example if his SNL return is a triumph, then that will surely get him considerable hype (and votes) at just the right time.
People are acting like Deniro’s done nothing but shit since Casino. He did score an Oscar nomination for Silver Linings Playbook and by all accounts is in nearly every single scene of the most critically acclaimed movie of the year. If Yalitiza Aparicio can take the same path to a nomination, so can Deniro.
I wouldn’t go back as far as Casino because he still had a few solid films after that (Heat, Marvin’s Room, Jackie Brown, Wag the Dog, Analyze This, Meet the Parents, The Score)
BUT
I would say that with very, VERY few exceptions (Stardust, The Good Shepherd, Silver Linings Playbook), since 2001 all his films, roughly 30 (!) of them, had been objectively bad to horrible and to be fair the three exceptions from the 2001 – 2018 period weren’t exactly masterpieces, either, only good(ish).
That’s not to say he isn’t great in The Irishman because he actually is and would be very deserving of an Oscar nomination, too. Trouble for him is that with 11 viable contenders gunning for only 5 slots, external factors such as recent track records, will probably come into play. It won’t necessarily cost him the nomination but I think it will be definitely an obstacle to overcome. And a potential factor we shouldn’t overlook.
He’s a recent nominee for Silver Lining, that has to work in his favor.
Granted I wasn’t a fan of the film, but regardless, Silver Linings Playbook was seven years ago, that’s not exactly recent. Nor relevant once you factor in the 11 star vehicles he had been in since then, ALL critical disappointments.
2013 – The Big Wedding (Metacritic – 28)
2013 – Killing Season (Metacritic – 25)
2013 – The Family (Metacritic – 42)
2013 – Last Vegas (Metacritic – 48)
2013 – Grudge Match (Metacritic – 35)
2014 – The Bag Man (Metacritic – 28)
2015 – The Intern (Metacritic – 51)
2015 – Heist (Metacritic – 37)
2016 – Dirty Grandpa (Metacritic – 21)
2016 – Hands of Stone (Metacritic – 54)
2017 – The Comedian (Metacritic – 40)
Would you not include The Wizard of Lies (2017), for which he received Golden Globe, Emmy and SAG award nominations two years ago? Nor his excellent work in Joker, another awards contender from this year? No mention of his excellent supporting work in Joy (2015) and American Hustle (2013)?
Also, whatever you may think of the films, he’s terrific in The Intern and Hands of Stone. As for him not appearing in memorable films other than Silver Linings Playbook, The Good Shepherd and Stardust since 2001, I’d love to know what you thought of his excellent work in Everybody’s Fine, Stone or Being Flynn, all of which are too-often overlooked performances.
I’d kill for a résumé that included all of these films from the past twenty years. I suspect many Academy members would, too.
I was only listing lead roles in films that’s why The Wizard of Lies (TV), Joy & American Hustle (cameos) are not listed. And for the record “excellent supporting work in Joy and American Hustle” ? Have you seen those films ? He was barely in them, proper cameo level considering he wasn’t even nominated with the cast for American Hustle at the SAG Ensemble and he is Robert fokken De Niro so if he had more than a blink and you miss it part, you can bet he would have been included there.
Also I never disputed the rather obvious fact that he is a brilliant actor and of course he was great in many projects that just weren’t. The ones you listed are excellent examples of just that, great turns in mediocre at best films (The Intern, Everybody’s Fine, Being Flynn).
That however doesn’t change the fact that he made roughly 30 bad to horrible films in the last 20 years or so, most of them not just critical but also financial flops. Sure he had a decent, critically well-received and/or financially successful film here and there but since 2001 for every good one there is roughly 10 bad ones. That’s not exactly a track record that can be swept under the rug. A 50-50 hit and miss rate could be ignored but THESE many misfires can’t be. I mean they can, but they will be nonetheless brought up.
P.S. For what it’s worth The Irishman is an epic creative comeback so if he gets the nomination, I will have no problem with that. I just can’t ignore external factors at play here when making my predictions.
1. Joaquin Phoenix
2. Adam Driver
3. Antonio Banderas
4. Jonathan Pryce
5. Eddie Murphy
No Bale, No De Niro & No Di Caprio.
There is no way that three Netflix movies make up Best Actor. Not happening.
The thing about Antonio Banderas is that we tend to forget the various accomplishments he had delivered in the span of three decades. At certain points in his career, he was an auteur’s muse (Almodovar films), a bone fide movie star (Zorro films, Spy Kids films), an acclaimed leading man in two languages, a memorable character actor (Interview with a Vampire, Philadelphia, Evita) and even a successful voice over actor (Shrek franchise). That’s quite the range for someone who has never been nominated for an Oscar before.
At the same time by now he had already worked with literally everyone who is anyone in the acting game and since he doesn’t have a bad reputation, the assumption is that his high-profile former co-stars will probably support his bid this season that could get him his first ever Oscar nomination. And that’s a long and illustrious list of former co-stars, too : Tom Hanks, Meryl Streep, Jeremy Irons, Winona Ryder, Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise, Kirsten Dunst, Salma Hayek, Julianne Moore, Sylvester Stallone, Jennifer Connelly, Madonna, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Anthony Hopkins, Woody Harrelson, Angelina Jolie, Emma Thompson, Alfre Woodard, Liam Neeson, Laura Linney, Meg Ryan, Naomi Watts, Ewan McGregor, Michael Fassbender, Channing Tatum, Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan, Annette Bening, Steve Coogan, Chris Messina, Jason Statham, Wesley Snipes, Eddie Murphy, Cameron Diaz, Mel Gibson, Harrison Ford, Juliette Binoche, Christian Bale, Cate Blanchett, Natalie Portman, Gary Oldman, Penelope Cruz, Robert Downey Jr.
So if he has the support of the Actors, he is in. And considering he basically worked with all of them, I think it is a decent bet that he will have their support. We’ll see soon enough.
That has been my point all along. He is immensely likeable and you never hear bad rep against him
I agree that this is what gives him his best chance as well. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, having not seen P&G yet, that he genuinely deserves it.
I may not like it but I think it’s #2. The showier performance wins at the Oscars. Plus his film has both festival cred, after winning the Golden Lion in Venice, and massive BO, which wasn’t necessarily expected given how different and risky it looked from the trailers. A BP nom would surely seal the deal.
I definitely agree that Joker has massive BO.
He also has the strongest overdue narrative. That alone is not enough to win, but combined with the rest it’s a perfect combo.
at all… Phoenix has won awards before. Banderas has been consistently nominated for awards fro almost anything and only with Pain and Glory is finally getting recognition, at age 59. We are talking about a solid, likable actor that has succeded at arthouse, blockbusters, theater, musical, TV and voice acting and got noms for EVERY ASPECT of his career, without actually winning. Talk about range.
1. Driver
2. Phoenix
3. De Niro
4. Pryce
5. DiCaprio
6. Banderas
The way I see it at the moment
1. PHOENIX (Con : Controversial film + divisive critical reception + his past Oscar comments)
2. DRIVER (Con : Non-existent Box Office + understated compared to the competition)
3. BANDERAS (Con : Foreign language performances rarely make the cut here)
4. DE NIRO (Con : Non-existent Box Office + MVP ? + CGI stigma + bad track record of last 20 years)
5. BALE (Con : At this very moment, none. Maybe internal competition from Damon, but not really)
6. DICAPRIO (Con : Early release date + recent win + MVP ?)
7. PRYCE (Con : Non-existent Box Office + crowded Netflix slate)
8. EGERTON (Con : Early release date)
9. MURPHY (Con : Non-existent Box Office + crowded Netflix slate + comedy bias)
10. DAVIS (Con : Divisive critical reception + Academy bias against child performances in lead)
11. HAUSER (Con : The late debut + short season + relative unknown combo may not have been wise)
Having said that I’m nowhere near ready to rule out anyone from #6 to #11. I mean just in one week Bale jumped to #5 for me when he was steadily hovering around #8 for a long time. The truth is strong cases could be made for AND against all 11 names on this list and frankly I wouldn’t be surprised one bit by the inclusion OR omission of any one of them. I honestly believe none are safe at the moment. Sure there are a few near-locks but from this group, even that’s a stretch. For example I’m still predicting Phoenix for the win and at the same time I’m not even sure he will get the nomination and at the same time I still wouldn’t rule out Egerton who is campaigning hard along with the living legend he played OR Hauser who could break out in a big way in a few hours once his film debuts at AFI. Or not. We’ll know soon enough.
I highly doubt Banderas is third.
I think he has the best Oscar narrative in this bunch. It may not get him the Oscar, but I think it will definitely secure the nomination.
I think it is a race between Phoenix and him. Oscarbaity vs true actor’s challenge (open himself up, show vulnerability, avoiding Oscar clips, use eyes and body language wisely, not overplay emotions, become completely believable as a character and serving his costars and the story being told, over any egoistical consideration). Plus the narrative beats Phoenix’s on all fronts… Phoenix’s is that he is overdue and shines as an iconic character, launching a dark film into a b.o. bohemian… Banderas’ is being overdue for winning awards, having tried and succeeded in all possibilities of an actor (theater, auteur muse, action star, leading man in 2 languages, voice actor with tremendous success, TV movies or mini series), having worked with half Hollywood, being adored by his costars and almost everyone, being considered “one of them”, having survived a heart attack (scar from surgery being notable in the very first shot of the film) and thus changing his career back to his acting roots, and he has the support of such a huge Partyman as Almodovar who seems even more interested in earning his great friend Antonio an Oscar, than getting one for himself. My theory is that when actors vote for an award, they will pick up Banderas… but for the win, everybody votes, and that would give Phoenix the edge, unless Banderas has earned enough precursors (specially GG Drama) to earn attention from non-actors. That is why I think Banderas is 2nd for the nom and for the win.
Driver is 3rd, in my book. Then de Niro, then Pryce. But any of them can make room for Hauser, Murphy, Bale or specially, Egerton… I think Rocketman can resurge thanks to PGA, SAG, GG and BAFTA
I’m not sure about the win but if he secures at least two of the SAG-Bafta-GG trio of key nominations and even wins one of them, he is definitely getting his long overdue first Oscar nomination. As for the win, my guess is it will come down to how much the Academy embraces Joker. If they give it a BP nomination, than Phoenix wins. If they don’t, all bets are off once again
I think Joker is the typical film that the industry can leave emptyhanded. Specially since a sequel is being half confirmed these days, and one of the most praised aspects of the project in advance was the promise, it would be a stand alone film. Now Phoenix and Phillips are beginning to look like sell outs. Also, consider this… the film is SO OBVIOUSLY a mix of Taxi Driver and The King of Comedy, that it hurts (with a Fight Club touch). They can really pass on Joker anywhere but in Lead Actor (for a nom) and call it a day.
Joker, though, has warranted a PGA nom and a GG Drama Lead for Phoenix, same with SAG lead. But aside from that, it has zero locked nominations anywhere else, am I forgetting anything?
Pain and Glory is the kind of film that can get snubbed big time everywhere and still appear at Oscar nominations, as it happened with Talk to Her. It won LAFCA for Best Director and BAFTA for Original Screenplay… Foreign Language wins aside (Globes, BAFTA), the film was mostly overlooked for wins everywhere but EFA. Even the Spanish Goyas only awarded its score, it lost every single nom that year (Best Picture and Director specially hurt, to the inferior in quality, but more political Los Lunes al Sol, with Javier Bardem, who defeated Javier Cámara for Lead Actor, in what I consider one of the biggest travesties of Goya). The thing we have to consider with Pedro, is that he is not so much interested in Spain as much as he is interested in the international success of this films. That is why I consider Julieta an anomaly, it was a great film, for sure, but hardly baity on any aspect (beyond the superb Supporting Performance by Rossy de Palma, who Nathaniel Rogers and I seem to be the only ones bitching about her Oscar and Golden Globe snub… seriously, recheck that film and the de Palma transformation and scene stealing performance).
But Banderas, honestly, can’t miss wins or runner ups at film critics circles (specially LAFCA), and certainly missing BAFTA and SAG nominations would hurt him too much. GG Drama seems more likely as Leo, Eddie, Taron will be in comedy, so that makes a bit easier to enter the final quintet (and it would be his 5th GG nom, so yeah, he could be considered overdue for winning it)
He is 2nd.
Yeah, I’m very similar to you – I believe we align a lot, actually, Lol.
After seeing FvF, I have a hard time seeing Bale miss; just because he’s Bale (nommed a lot lately), his character is sympathetic, and it’s a very popular film.
I’m also not counting out Egerton for the reasons you list.
And I see a world where DiCaprio or DeNiro somehow miss. We’re gonna have to see how things shakedown with those 6-11 people in the coming weeks.
Exciting!
I’ve been low-key considering the DiCaprio-De Niro snubs for quite a while, too. It’s not that the performances aren’t great, it’s just there are 11 contenders for 5 slots so half the crew will be snubbed in the end and that very well could be them.
Right. And we just don’t know where those pockets of passion will come from and for who.
I don’t think that controversy is a con. It keeps a movie and performance in conversation. I think it’s worse if there’s no chatter.
I’m predicting him for the win but I think there will be factors in play that will nonetheless hurt his chances. I mean the Academy snubs comic book film adaptations on the regular, ones that have the support of critics and zero controversy surrounding them
yet
we expect them to embrace this one, WITH controversy and no critical support, enough to give it a BP nomination and a win in Best Actor ? It can definitely happen. But based on precedent it isn’t nearly the done deal many think it is.
We also expect Jojo to win with no critical support and only average boxoffice and no controversy to keep people talk.
“We” is a stretch in this case. I’m definitely not expecting Jojo to win, never have, and with BO slowing down, frankly I’m once again not sure it even gets the filler BP nod it is widely expected to receive.
Ah, OK. Sorry, you are right. You were never on that train.
No biggie, to be fair this season is turning out to be a rather unpredictable one so all my precedent-based predictions could be worthless in the end.
If Phoenix is nominated there is no way he’ll win. He’s shooting the Mike Mills movie now who is a much more liked director than Todd Philips. Voters will wait in case he is great in the Mike Mills movie which is a much more acceptable win.
Do voters know who Mike Mills is? I’d imagine that they’ve seen Beginners and maybe 20th Century Women but it’s not like there has been this great appreciation for Mike Mills in the industry that would make voters think that this new film is going to be anything special (not saying that it shouldn’t, 20th Century Women is incredible)
That’s quite delusional take, most voters don’t even know who Mike Mills is or care about his project.
To the extent that there are voters who vote this way (i.e. NOT vote for someone because that person might be great in another movie that is a year or more away), it is a very small number of voters, and not enough to make a difference. I think voters vote on the shiny toy that is in front of them.
I can’t believe for one second Driver is going to win. First of all, MARRIAGE STORY is a two-hander and Johansson’s story occupies at least as much screen time and is the catalyst for the drama. Second, there are issues with his surrogacy for Baumbach and whether his character “gets off easy” for some of his marital transgressions while the film presents him as the character who receives the bad deal (while not exactly dealing with the aspects of his personality that she finds so toxic). Third, he doesn’t transform in any way whatsoever and is purely “Adam Driver” throughout. Sure, he shows some emotion (that’s a job requirement, btw, not an example of above and beyond), but not in any stratospheric sense. Joaquin Phoenix is acting in a whole different game, headlining his film, going to the lowest depths, transforming himself and his character, obviously striking a cultural chord, playing a tormented person who exists in the world. He is largely the reason the film has become part of the lexicon and anyone who speaks of it discusses how extraordinary he is. This is far from the case with Driver, who is not immediately mentioned the same for his film. Phoenix’s descent into mental illness, its drivers and the outcomes combined with a career-high performance and multiple past nods is why he will win. If not, Driver’s win will go down as one of the all-time worst robberies.
I think you forget that majority of voters are white artistic males who I would say can relate and identify very much with Driver’s character in Marriage Story. Sasha doesn’t see it that way, but I do think there’s an emotional impetus for them to vote for Driver. For example, Alec Baldwin has already tweeted about Driver and Marriage Story 3 times since seeing it.
I think that, while they may identify with Charlie, they want to be/play Joker. It’s just the coolest role and the coolest movie of the moment. Big cultural phenomenon.
This is one of my problems with Joker. As a role, yes it is a great challenge any actor would be lucky to have the privilege to take on BUT the film didn’t do its job right if people “want to be” him. He isn’t a hero and he isn’t supposed to be cool. He is supposed to be seen as the mentally ill homicidal individual who needs professional help. He shouldn’t be a role model and he isn’t someone who should be idealised and glamorised even yet the film and many of its fans did just that.
sorry, by “be” I meant non-actors would want to be that role if they were actors.
OK that does make sense. It is an iconic role for sure.
There’s another thing Driver has going for him, and that’s a Cinderella story in the making known as Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. So, people are gonna be seeing Driver plenty–not to mention he’s crazy good in The Report, and any other year, he’d be a strong contender or that role. Yeah, Phoenix is good in Joker–I mean, I wouldn’t nominate him, but a Best Actor nod for him wouldn’t be the most egregious decision by the Academy–but this really is Driver’s year. Hell, you could make the argument it’s been his decade. And Joker as a phenomenon is pretty impressive, even if the film itself leaves a ton to be desired, but box office only goes so far with the Academy.
You clearly didn’t read real leaks for TROS for that’s not a Cinderella story. It’s a garbage movie. Unbelievable garbage.I don’t think it’ll Norbit Driver for I expect he’ll be great despite moronic script but yeah, it’s bad, very bad.
But the thing is as long as TROS gets OK reviews and makes money, it will be considered to be a success even if certain plot points won’t please all the fans. And even if it flops – which it won’t – a supporting player in a big ensemble wouldn’t be blamed for it.
that’s true.
I think the MS ladies are way more likely than Driver. Johansson has long been overdue (plus was a key player with key moments in the year’s biggest film, Endgame) and is looking up for a double nom, so she is SO winning lead. Dern is also overdue and just presented David Lynch with his honorary Oscar, so she is probably winning Supporting. It would be extremely difficult that they choose Driver, too, who is a relatively newcomer, OVER overdues Banderas and Phoenix who are way older and have been snubbed so many times (and are also, bigger stars). Driver is third, for sure, for the win. Locked for the nom? Maybe, but it rings to me as the usual shocking snub we have every year.
I feel pretty confident to say
(almost) locked… Phoenix, then Banderas (Cannes, HFA wins and speeches, EFA nom and frontrunner status to win), then Driver
next in line… De Niro (I think The Irishman is winning either Picture or Director)
fifth spot… so far, Pryce, but iffy. Could be Hauser, could be Bale, could be Egerton, could be Murphy (even thought that is beyond me, why), could be even Ruffalo.
I’m in camp 6. But I don’t think Bale wins. But I do think he and movie are nominated.