Although there is a review embargo in place until tomorrow, social media erupted with praise yesterday for Sam Mendes’ 1917 — raves that have now been backed up and repeated today as several screenings rolled out across the city for anyone who could score a ticket. There is much to say about this holy-shit mind-blower of a movie, but for now we’ll talk briefly about what a year it’s been, especially for actor-driven films and ensembles, and how it has been mostly relentless since Telluride.
There is something for everybody in this year’s Oscar race, depending on what you’re looking for. But just when you thought it was time for the major studios to pack it in, they come roaring back with guns blazing. Warner Bros. has Joker, Richard Jewell and Just Mercy, Fox has Ford v Ferrari, Fox Searchlight has Jojo Rabbit, Sony has Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Bombshell, and now, Universal has 1917, Queen & Slim, and Us.
Then you add in the independents, with Neon and Parasite, A24 with Waves and Uncut Gems, Lionsgate’s with Knives Out. Then it’s the hybrids – Netflix with FOUR in the race, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Dolemite Is My Name, and The Two Popes.
What a year for the Oscar race. We haven’s seen a year this packed in a while. Add to that, there is a much shorter season than usual. SAG voters are voting RIGHT NOW. The Golden Globe voting starts in two days. We are just a week or so away from the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics announcing.
Deep breath.
Once December starts, then it’s nonstop December festivities, as packed with awards voting as it’s ever been, and then in less than a week, from January 2 through January 7, Oscar voters mark their ballots.
To make matters worse, the PGA, the DGA, and the Oscar ballot deadlines are ALL on January 7. It’s complete insanity.
Here are a few factors to consider.
- We will either be in another splits year or else we won’t. How we will find out depends on whether one film clinches the DGA, the PGA and the SAG ensemble and then will have an easy trot through to the finish line. If that doesn’t happen, then the wins will be spread out. I suspect it will be the latter. A rushed season like this might mean early wins aren’t indicative of what will catch fire later on.
- Since the Oscars introduced their expanded ballot, there hasn’t been a year where any one film swept the awards. But the Oscars are MADE for sweeps. They’re made for one movie coming in and winning everything. That is really how they stand behind a winner. But with more Best Picture contenders they will likely spread the wealth rather than anoint just one movie to rule them all.
How has the trophy tally added up, in the two distinct Oscar eras of the 21st Century?
See the difference? Nowadays, films that win Best Picture, more often than not, win 2 of 3 big ones. Either Picture + Screenplay or Picture + Director – but rarely all three. The Hurt Locker remains the biggest winner with 6 but we’re not getting anywhere near the larger sweeps we sometimes saw with a film that hits it out of the park.
There are simply so many favorite movies admired by so many diverse voters, it splits up the vote all over the place, so that all the top movies that are nominated often win at least one Oscar (though it does rarely happen that a movie – like American Hustle – goes home empty handed).
Figuring out how to divide up the awards is the trick. Figuring out what most people will do — where they’ll lay it down and why — that’s the trick.
The question before us now is — are sweeps still even possible? I’ve been waiting since 2009 to see one and every time one comes up, it slips at the final envelope and loses Best Picture, like:
Gravity, which won 7, more than any Best Picture winner since 2009.
La La Land, which won 6, tying with The Hurt Locker.
Mad Max: Fury Road, which also won 6.
These films with the big technical achievements come close to sweeping but then don’t hit the target with Screenplay and Best Picture, though two of those have won Best Director.
What these films lack, though, are a couple of things. Their scripts weren’t strong enough to win Best Picture. As good as they were, they were driven by their director and the crafts involved, not by the writing. The writing is key. When you get to Best Picture, if you aren’t winning on the first round of voting, that kicks in a recount and then being a movie like this hurts your chance to win Best Picture because it will almost always come down to the writing.
We’ve proven this many times over, how important screenplay is to the big win. Look at Spotlight – it won only two Oscars but one of them was Screenplay.
All five of this year’s Best Picture frontrunners have great writing, and aren’t just technical achievements:
1917 – We watch the hero’s journey unreel in real time. We see the reluctant call to save the troops from attack. We watch the struggle to get to the destination, then we see the transformation on the face of the film’s main character as he goes from a frightened, somewhat indifferent soldier to someone willing to risk his life to save many more lives. It is an astonishing film on every level. From the directing to the writing to the acting. It’s only drawback is that it is arriving late in the game and because it is a war movie many will be tempted to put it on the same shelf as some of the other recent movies that tread similar ground. That would be a mistake. The key to this movie is the way it’s written. Everything starts there. And where it started was with Krysty Wilson-Cairns’ pitch to tell a story of WWI in real time, then co-written by renowned visual-stylist director Sam Mendes to explore this idea of what would happen if you brought your camera onto the battlefield and saw the transformation of your protagonist evolve before your eyes. I mean, wow.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is pure Tarantino in both writing and directing. You can’t really separate them. His film closes out a revenge trilogy with the best of the three — the redemption comes not to the characters but to those who are watching, all of us who are reaching out for relief from the agony of carrying around such a horrific tragedy in our minds. Tarantino has made a personal film, even if many of us who watch it identify with the nostalgia of a time long gone. It is as good a script as Tarantino has ever written.
The Irishman brings with it the language of the book, I Heard You Paint Houses, but adds layers from the sharp mind of Steve Zaillian’s careful assembly and deconstruction of a dual life. A man who is one thing to his family, and another thing to the mob. A man who is lying as much to himself as he is to those closest to him. But there is another language brought to it and that is the language of Martin Scorsese’s version of the mob, which includes the language of Joe Pesci, Robert De Niro, and Al Pacino. These voices resonate powerfully in our heads and are folded inextricably into this complex narrative.
Jojo Rabbit is so packed full of funny lines it takes multiple viewings to get them all. It springs almost completely from the mind of its director Taika Waititi, even if it was a loose adaptation of the Christine Leunens book. Again, it all starts with the script and without the brilliant writing the actors could not walk that careful lines between comedy and horror and melancholy. The lines from Jojo Rabbit chase after the scene you just watched and they land well into the next scene. If some people find they can’t laugh at something so ridiculously surreal, what is there left to say? If you’re in the right groove, Jojo Rabbit is the one of the few films that makes you feel really good about the best of humanity by time it ends. And that makes it one of the strongest contenders to win, especially if you’re looking at a Picture + Screenplay plus one other award kind of thing, which is the most common trend. If 1917 or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or The Irishman wins? You’re looking at a much bigger haul.
Parasite wouldn’t be the first foreign language film to win Best Screenplay. Pedro Almodovar did it with Talk to Her. Bong Joon-Ho and Jin Won Han’s carefully constructed morality play about society’s unfair hierarchy and how people can literally be living right on top of each other and not know what kind of suffering endures in the hidden places. Parasite is thrilling to watch unfold, especially if you don’t know what’s going to happen. With careful and deliberate use of symbolism — a mystical stone to represent the promise of wealth, the mirror image parallels a two nuclear families — one living in wealth, one living in poverty.
So if you’re paying attention, that’s three for Original Screenplay and two for Adapted Screenplay. Which of these could win Picture + Screenplay but not Director? Which of these could win all three?
The big question will be whether one movie can rise to dominate and make a clean sweep of the guilds. Or will they split, leaving us all to scramble in the last act, parsing the precedents to predict what might squeak through on a preferential vote. It could be any of these five, or any in the race.
Having now seen all of the films, I think the strongest for Best Picture right now would be:
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Marriage Story
Dolemite Is My Name
Bombshell
I could be wrong but that’s how I see it going down for now.
I will not be surprised if any of these movies get traction and show up:
Richard Jewell
Little Women
Queen & Slim
Motherless Brooklyn
Hustlers
The Farewell
Waves
I would have said box office would hurt jojo rabbit’s front runner status BUT after what happened with greenbook which made all its money after awards attention..i wouldn’t be surprised if jojo makes a come back to theaters after awards nominations but its a different story compared to feel good movie green book.
I personally would take out dolemite and bombshell. I still feel like marriage story is film twitter thing.
Just a detail thing from the Q&A at the DGA Theater screening in New York of 1917, Sam Mendes came up with the general story frame and the real time conceit, Kristy Wilson-Cairns filled in all the details. They joked about how at the first telephone meeting to discuss how she’d build out Mendes‘ pitch, he ended the call by saying “oh yea – and it’s all going to be in real time.”
I keep seeing comments that the race is down to 10 or 12 or whatever small number of movies (or similar comments). I really would caution this kind of thinking before a single precursor has come out… Looking back at gold derby because its the best I have for previous year’s thinking. This time last year Bohemian Rhapsody was in 22nd, Mad Max Fury road was 15th, Hacksaw Ridge was 14th, Dallas Buyers Club was in 16th and in that same year Philomena was 14th, Tree of Life was in 31st etc. and lots and lots of the time 11th, 12th, 13th got in. Basically all we know right now is what critics and for some films some of the public think of films. In general, yes, most of the films that will get nominated will be from the upper echelon of what we expect but not even considering those below it could be (note, could be doesn’t necessarily mean will be) a mistake. In saying those I am still considering are (in no particular order):
The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Parasite, Once Upon a Time, The Two Popes, Little Women, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, Dolemite, Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood, Bombshell, Rocketman, The Farewell, Pain and Glory, Knives out, Richard Jewell, Avengers, Waves, Queen and Slim
Many of which I think are unlikely but narratives can change and we know nothing yet. In the next couple of weeks as precursors start rolling out we can start removing films off these lists.
“Time Magazine says Dolemite Is My Name is one of the ten best films of the year.”
(that’s the whole tweet)
https://twitter.com/Karaszewski/status/1199097591964684289
I have not seen, but I will be watching it this week. I hope it’s as good as Sasha claims.
I was hoping that at least one woman would be nominated for BD and thought Lulu Wang would have the best chance. She will sadly miss out now (she should still be nominated for BOS). However, she can’t have any complaints, because Gerwg has the goods. If Gerwig got just a filler nomination, I would have been disappointed. But that’s not the case. She is a MASSIVE threat to win BD and if the narrative is all with her should could claim BP, BD and BAS. The irony is that Gerwig has probably knocked out her partner Noah Baumbach in BD.
Best Picture:
1- The Irishman
2- Little Women
3- Parasite
4- 1917
5- Hollywood.
Best Director:
1- Scorsese
2- Gerwig
3- Mendes
4- Parasite
5- Tarantino
Not putting Todd Phillips on the list of best director and instead putting parasite on your list is like saying Federer is better than Djokovic, a tragedy……
We have a big Oscar contender. And I mean big. Sorry I doubted you, Gerwig. Phantom was right all along. I think it could become the BP favourite, but I currently have it in second place behind The Irishman. The reason why I rate it so highly is simple: Adapted Screenplay now belongs to Gerwig; I think it could become the BP favourite, but I currently have it in second place behind The Irishman. I believe she is second in BD (at worst a close third); but the biggest reason is that it has the best narrative of all the contenders. I believe both screenplays belong to real life coupleBaumbach and Gerwig (Phantom predicted that could happen, which looked fanciful at the time but it’s very realistic now), and I still expect Baumbach to win BOS even though he might miss BD due to his likely domination of the category. And if the film is as strong as I think, it’s going push Ronan to a Best Actress win. If LW wins BP, Best Actress belongs to Ronan. I think this film has the best narrative and also has people who have been close in recent years, unlike the competition (except Parasite, of course) who are previous Oscar winners in way or another.
I’m sure Birdman won 4 Oscars?!
Yes, it did. It won BP, BD, BOS and Cinematography.
I’m fingers crossed for Queen & Slim for selfish reasons. But I couldn’t agree more.
This is the most exciting pre-critics awards phase of the Oscar race I’ve ever personally witnessed. What other year could compare? (I’m asking people who have been around for a while, before I started following the race, circa 2005-2006.) I was thinking the American Sniper & Selma year, but that definitely wasn’t as exciting as this. I never for a second thought either of those could win BP.
Honestly, I´m following since the mid-90s – it was very different at that time, naturally. But since the internet and Oscar bloggers are involved I have to say that every year the most exciting time of the whole Oscar season is right before the first Critics Circle groups announce. Nothing is written in stone, everything seems possible.
That´s why I always have to smile when someone claims in November that some winners are already locked… 😉
🙂 For me the most exciting part is right before SAG and Globe nominations are announced. Maybe also right before Oscar nominations are announced. I’ve never before been anywhere this excited about the right-before-the-critics-awards portion…
I do not care enough about the Globes, to be true, but right before the Oscar nomination announcement is pretty exciting, especially if you have some candidates to cross fingers for. Like two years ago when “Phantom Thread” crashed into the top categories, man, that was amazing! 🙂
Oh, I actually kinda’ hate the Globes! 🙂 They snub the things I love A LOT… But they ARE super-influential (like SAG) for the Oscars, in terms of stats and everything, and I care about the Oscars, so…
I hate the Globes too. You’re not alone.
🙂
Exactly this. So many films that were either “locks” or “dead” at this point that ended up having very different realities a month or two from now…
last years was nerve wracking especially if you are a fan of vice and rooting for it all along….that was some crazy stuff….even after it got PGA, globes and SAG nominations…i was still nervoue because of all the idiot critics who were against it…the movie had the last laugh
I am very excited because it is going to be all over the place this season because of the shortened calendar. I think we will have genuine shocks, not just in BP or wins but in nominations, too. I think BAFTA will go all in for 1917 and the Oscars will try to go for something else. GG? I’m not sure, but they could go all in for Hollywood or a big surprise.
This weekend, I watched Knives Out and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Plus, took my dad to JoJo Rabbit and Parasite, both of which I had already seen. We both loved them all but agreed Parasite was best.
Personally, loved Beautiful Day. But I’m also partisan to Mr. Rogers. Sure, it wasn’t perfect, but I think Marielle Heller’s work in what could have been a simple, generic film, was stellar. She’s worthy of a nom for Director. Beyond some “style,” she did an amazing job of holding those extra moments in a scene or performance…that extra beat, facial reaction, or the scene where she forces the audience to sit in silence for a minute. Really impressed and can’t wait to see what she does next. Hanks for Supporting is also worthy.
My dad loved Knives Out (top 2 for him for year this year, only behind Parasite). I really liked it, but more of top 10 for me. Was my kind of humor, but I was surprised how much my audience laughed. I’ll be curious how it plays when it opens wide tomorrow. I think it’ll be up at the Globes. Oscar? Probably not, even though I thought it better than most of the competitors. But hoping it’s up for Screenplay.
When I read about just another war hero movie from Hollywood, I´m very sceptical. Could be the real deal for the Academy, though. But still… I really got stomach pain from “Saving Private Ryan”, and I prepare to see more of this fake war pathos here.
That said, when I see “1917” and the film turns out to be some dissident statement like “Paths of Glory”, I have zero problems in admitting I was wrong.
Like you, I’ll be comparing 1917 to Paths of Glory.
So, you’re still pretending that THE TWO POPES doesn’t exist. Good one.
Can’t wait for this, super duper excited. In Sam Kendes we (always) trust.
Also, slightly off topic, but Little Women’s reviews are finally in. Can Greta, Saoirse and Florence win everything all the way up to The Oscars? Thank you, The World
If reviews hold, they will all have solid shots at the nominations.
Winning, probably not. We’ll see!
I know there’s not mich of a chance for any of the three of them to actually score a win at The Oscars this year but they all (especially Saoirse and Greta) feel overdue at this point and Florence has had such a string if incredible lead work as of lately (Lady Macbeth, Fighting With My Family, Midsommar) that I want them to make up for those snubs (and yes, she’s definitely going to be snubbed for Midsommar sadly) not only with a nomination for her in the Supporting Actress category but an actual win. It’s unlikely to happen, I know, but what the hell I still hope. God, she’s that good. Can’t wait to see her pairing with Saoirse through Greta’s lense.
Really love all of them and pretty much everyone of the megatalented people involved in this and the more nominations and wins they score until Oscar night, the better. They’ve put up amazing work on screen again and again and they’re clearly all terrific in this once again.
To be fair if the film turns into a top5 player (BP+BD nominations), then Ronan could win and so could Gerwig only in adapted. For Pugh, this early on in her career, the nomination alone would be a huge accomplishment.
Psst, Stergios is Pugh’s PR manager for all his posts are laments about why Pugh isn’t in conversation for Midsommar. 😉
I soooo want Saoirse to finally win, she really is the new Cate Blanchett of her generation, she’s just a consistently mesmerizing actress. As for Florence, I agree that at this point in her career, a nomination would be the win (despite the fact the amount of astonishing performances she has delivered already is incredible).
It’s funny that it isn’t seen as a winner potential despite reviews already being superior to winner potential Jojo. It already has more 100s on MC.
Very true. But LW is an umpteenth adaptation of a beloved novel and that basically means A LOT of voters won’t consider it for BP victory out of principle.
yes, I think this is the problem with Oscar season 2019 – anything with great reviews is automatically seen as a nominee/winner in any major category whereas the system doesn’t work that way.
Whoah. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/046ca292b4d660be4880d7bb2fb4a45f5705e5666aba3cd82c64e8149a428670.png
Lady Bird reception happens again!
I thought I’m overshooting it with the 82.
Looks like it. If it stays in this universal acclaim range (81+), Gerwig will become the first female director to receive a second Oscar nomination in BD. Reviews were the only real question mark here, Box Office will be at least decent thanks to the lucrative Holiday window.
13 reviews, 91 rn.
I read the first 12-13 reviews as they were posted on Twitter 20 minutes ago and while I was positively surprised to see that they were all good/great with several raves thrown in there, too, I STILL did not expect 90+ MC, 75ish felt like its best case scenario. This is a game changer.
Already down to 88.
Now 87
Still A LOT higher than was expected or what is the threshold for a BP nomination nowadays. As I said above, if it stays in the universal acclaim range (81+), I expect it to be a top5 Oscar player (BP+BD nods, not winning either).
Inside Llewyn Davis says hello!
There is no room for this movie with everything else. I am likely wrong but I don’t see this making BP unless there are 9 or 10 and I give Gerwig 0% of making BD.
Inside Llewyn Davis wasn’t a studio film based on a beloved American novel; with 100M potential and a big, illustrious cast SAG voters will probably shower with nominations.
IMO if its critical consensus would have been good not great (65-75) then it would have been 50-50 for a filler BP nod.
IF it stays in the universal acclaim range AND makes all the money it is expected to AND gets the SAG Ensemble nod it is expected to, then the BP nod is not only happening, I think it will be a threat for a BD nod, as well.
Put another way…I don’t see how this movie which is the umpteeth remake of a movie that has never hit at the Oscars does so this time. Yes Gerwig is loved. Last year I would have thought this could win because it was such a down year. Not this year.
Oh, I don’t think it will win Picture or Director, not even close.
I think if the reviews hold and it delivers Box Office, it will be one of those Oscar films that get all the major nominations (including Picture and Director) but with no chance of actually going all the way. Maybe in adapted and actress but not in BP / BD.
So top5 but as in #5.
That movie only had Oscar Issac and the cat going for it.
If it´s as good as that one, I´m totally fine with it! 🙂
From here it’s going to be very interesting. Is it going to get repeat critical mentions like Lady Bird did? (That one won NYFCC’s Best Film!) If it does, it could become a major Oscar player, even if it doesn’t directly threaten for the BP win. If it doesn’t, it might only get a Picture nomination, plus a bit here and there. I don’t think it will be completely snubbed after this.
I think this kind of critical consensus coupled with the potentially strong BO and beloved source material, could help it a great deal in the nomination stage but I don’t think it will be enough for winning anything big like picture or director, in those races it will be still seen as an umpteenth remake which to be fair, it is. I will say that this definitely helps Ronan who could win if the film ends up as a top5 player and while I don’t see Gerwig winning BD even if she gets the nod, I could see her win Adapted Screenplay.
It’s not really a remake though, it’s a book adaptation. A classic book, even. I think that’s fundamentally different than remaking a film several time. If someone makes a Romeo and Juliet film adaptation, nobody calls it a remake. We shouldn’t call this one a remake either.
Fair point but at the end of the day it is a story that had been put on screen before many times. It may not be a remake but it isn’t original, either, even if the execution is.
This is great news. Not because I´m calculating it´s Oscar chances, but because I want it to be really good! 🙂
Greta, Saiorse and Florence – I´m with you.
My God.
Anyone know if I have to see this on the big screen?
Probably or see it on a really big tv. TVs getting bigger and cheaper are probably the main reason people have been going to the theaters less.
Thank you Sam Mendes! I don’t have my bar so high for you for nothing
Jo jo, joker and Delemite are not oscar quality movies.
and that stopped Picture nominations in the past. Oh wait! 🙂
🙂
“Joker” is an Oscar quality movie. 🙂
More than “Ford v Ferrari”, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “Dolemite”, that’s for sure.
It wasn’t understood by American critics but – who cares? 🙂
Joker is definitely oscar quality movie, at least oscar quality in good old days.
Jojo is most certainly an Oscar film!
So pleased to hear that this seems to be a great one. Looking forward to it, greatly.
Looks like noms for Picture, Director and a load of techs are in store. Maybe Screenplay. Not sure McKay can crack Top 5. If he does, watch out.
At the expense of Eddie. :runs and hides before Sasha throws a vase:
🙂
Besides the late release, 1917 is going to have to cope with American disinterest in any war movie not Civil War or WWII. Are there enough Brits in the Academy to counter this?
Yes. Almost 3 thousand. But I disagree with your point of view. It is a big epic and we see for example the unexpected huge box office of Midway, we can expect big box office here. Otherwise, Academy Members, who in fact vote for the Oscars, are loving it. “Birdman”, “Spotlight” and “Moonlight” all had poor box office and it didn’t impend them to win Best Picture Prize.
I think Americans like most excellent war films, no matter what. If this gets as much buzz/interest generated as I think it can … it will do well with the box office and with the Academy. And yes, there are many Brits in AMPAS.
Good point , WW1 is obscure to American voters ; they never went for Dunkirk and it was a much more important historical event
With so much content being released (incl. Netflix & AMZ movies) that seems to be awards-worthy, maybe the Academy awards and others should start segregating categories. For instance into Best Musical, Best Comedy, Best Indie move (below $XXX to produce), Best Large Scale movie.
Does anybody think it will come to this? I mean….times change, and the awards shows should change too.
I don’t think that will ever happen. I mean they couldn’t introduce a Popular Film category without severe backlash so them pulling off separate BP categories based on production budget is most definitely not happening nor would even be attempted, ever.
Just bring back Top 10 over the preferential ballot.
What do you mean? The time when there were 10 nominees, the preferential ballot was still used. If you want to get rid of the preferential ballot, you need to go back to the 5 nominee times.
then 10th spot should be a cut off not 6,7,8 whatever.
This “5 to 10 slots that clearly will never be 10 or 5-6” is annoying.
extremely so. it leaves out movies that would make Top 10.
Hot dayumn! And here I thought last week was exciting with the AFI debut of Richard Jewell on Wednesday and the first industry screenings of 1917 on the weekend when it was all bupkis compared to today when apparently embargoes lift for BOTH 1917 and Little Women, a full month before they are released (December 25). So I’m guessing Universal and Sony, respectively, are feeling confident about their chances at stellar critical consensuses.
Metacritic predictions, any takers ? Mine is 86 for 1917 and 75 for Little Women. For the record if latter starts at / stays in the 81+ range, I will be ready to consider it the 8th near-lock in BP after (in alphabetical order) 1917, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman.
My predix:
93 for 1917
82 for Little Women
I’m gonna go opposite a bit and say that actual reviews for 1917 will be less than we think and reviews for Little Women may be stronger than we think.
You were right expecting higher for Little Women, at the moment it is at 88 on MC based on 16 reviews.
1917 is still embargoed for what I’m guessing is another hour or two.
And you’re kinda right. 1917 is 86 on MC based on 11 reviews which is unexpectedly kinda “low” based on the twitter reactions that that has. And Little Women is 90 now.
Sasha hates Marriage Story so much she can’t seem to be impartial. Putting Joker over Marriage Story in Best Picture, really Sasha come on now.
I thinks that she doesn’t like Little Women either. Its so hard to read her views this year because my favorites are clearly not hers…..
Joker is coming. Marriage Story has big internal competition. I don’t think her list is based on hate. She simply thinks Netflix won’t have more than 2 in the race and if you look at her list, Top 7 has 1 movie per studio. Marriage Story (#8) is second from Netflix (Irishman is top 2 on Sasha’s list).
Joker is a definite possibility for the BP lineup but with the late entries impressing left and right, the second-tier players (BP maybe, BD nope) like Joker, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood are all definitely in a much more peculiar position all of a sudden than the one they were in a week ago.
Joker has longevity unlike ABDIN and is 2 Popes in cinemas already? Point being, if someone is bent on voting for Joker they are not going to drop it for new entries considering how different they are from Joker. If anything, FvF could steal vots from another crowd pleaser but certainly not from Joker. That’s why I’m thinking that Jojo’s post-nom run won’t be as sizzling as GB’s for it’s surrounded by crowd-pleasing movies that will pick up the same buzz.
With Joker the pro side of the argument is that it only needs a few hundred #1 votes to secure the BP nod and that is doable and actually favours divisive films like this one.
The con side however is that the Academy has only embraced one comic book film before and even that was just a half-embrace (filler BP nod, nothing in directing, writing, acting) in spite of rave reviews. Joker doesn’t even have the reviews therefore is definitely no done deal in BP especially with one above the line nomination all but guaranteed already (Phoenix).
Joker was never aiming for a win so filler spot is doable and it would still end up with more above the lines because of Phoenix. Panther never had a shot at acting, directing, script, people were just deluding themselves thinking that AMPAS would be white guilt-tripped into a sweep. LOL. They even dropped awful SFX.
My point is that if Black Panther with better reviews and bigger Box Office barely eked out a filler BP nod, then Joker can’t exactly be in an easy position right about now, either.
BP had over-inflated better reviews. Tough to believe AMPAS agreed that it was that great. Also, BP was a cartoon. Same big poorly rendered SFX that plagues all Marvel movies was on the display there and also used to pad the screen time. Joker looks like a movie. I’m not saying it will make the line-up (last year, there was almsot a threat posed at AMPAS if BP missed) but it isn’t without a shot. Its passionate supporters are passionate and narrative moved away from “incel flick that will cause mass shooting” to “pop cultural phenomenon”
It cost 55M to produce and will end well over 1B even without China so it is definitely a pop cultural phenomenon not just in the US but worldwide. But then again so is Endgame and we are not expecting that one, either, even though it also had better reviews and bigger Box Office.
For what it’s worth I agree that Joker has a shot at a BP nod. It really does. I just don’t think it’s better than a 50-50 for now.
It’s already at 1.036B without China. It made history as the first R movie to cross 1 billion on Thursday or Friday I think.
It did.
And Endgame is the highest grossing film of all-time.
The Force Awakens is the highest grossing film in the US of all time.
At the time of its critically acclaimed last chapter, the Harry Potter franchise was the highest grossing movie franchise of all time.
Truth is stellar Box Office can help a great deal perception-wise but it doesn’t guarantee anything in BP especially when the film in question doesn’t have the critics on its side AND is in a genre the Academy tends to ignore.
true though Joker achievement is different from those other achievements for there has never been 1 billion grossing movie that’s rated R. Movies take #1 spot every 6 years.
Question is will the Academy care about that distinction ? I know BO enthusiasts will but will the voters ?
Oh I agree. We don’t know whether they even know.
Man, not true. It took ten years for a movie to beat Avatar on Biggest Worldwide box office. And 6 years for star Wars to be the biggest domestic box office.
The previous R Rated with biggest box office was Deadpool 2 Just 1 year before Joker. And before that was Deadpool 1
No R rated movie ever made 1 billion until Joker. Movies cracked 2 billion quote often recently (TFA in 2015, IW in 2018 and Endgame in 2019). between “Biggest movie in the world” narrative and first R movie to make 1 billion (without China!), the latter has much bigger impact on the industry because it’s game changer. Yet another SFX extravaganza making over 2 billion (whether it’s #1 or #2) is re-stating what we knew – that kind of entertainment makes big money. But Joker achievment is completely different because R rating was undervalued precisely because of lesser boxoffice. Until now. Also, to do that without China pander and without obscene budget.
However, as I said in another post, we don’t even know whether the voters know about any of these achievements and whether they care.
Endgame is generic comic book movie, just on bigger scale, of course they’ll ignore it, no matter how big it is. And TFA/Harry Potter (lol) are not oscar material either. Plus Endgame barely crossed Avatar, it’s not that impressive. Joker destroyed the previous record holder by a large margin, nothing will top it in the next decade. It’s a comic book movie in name and source material only, it’s a big studio drama with great lead actor, record-breaking box office and it won Golden Lion (!), it won’t be perceived like a comic book movie by The Academy, at least by those who actually saw it.
Look just because you WANT it to get a BP nomination, doesn’t mean I should agree with you that it will get one.
It doesn’t have the reviews that alone puts it in roughly 5 % of all BP nominees that could sneak in without the critical seal of approval then I add the genre bias the Academy clearly has and that 5 % shrinks further meaning it not only would have to be the rare BP nominee that doesn’t have the critics on its side but also THE first BP nominee that doesn’t have the critics on its side AND is a comic book film.
Is it fair ? No. Is it how the Academy operates based on precedent ? Yes.
American critics’ reviews don’t matter that much (hello Bohemian Rhaposdy and Vice which got even worse reviews, and tons of other movies) and they are not actually bad, there are lots of 10/10 despite review bombing by idiots after Toronto, it had 9.3/10 AR after Venice premiere and first 50 reviews. Again this is comic book movie in name and source material only, beyond that it’s awards movie across the board, those academy members who actually watched it probably agree. We’ll see of course, but I’m sure its chances are much higher than some people think, audience/foregin critics’ reception is one of the best in this decade and box office is phenomenal. Just because FilmTwitter hates it doesn’t mean The Academy has the same opinion (hello Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody), twitter is a bubble full of delusional morons.
Filler? Black Panther went home with the second-most Oscars of the night, beating formidable competition in all three categories. That wasn’t filler. They loved it.
I consider any BP nominee a “filler” that doesn’t have at least one nomination in the directing, writing, acting categories thus having zero shot at actually winning BP.
Technical only. Absent from Director, Screenplay or Performance noms
Black Panther only has better american critics’ reviews (everybody knows why), Joker audience and foreign critics’ reviews are much much better and its box office is more impressive too considering tons of obvious factors (it’s the first R-rated 1 bln movie in history with the lowest budget for 1 bln grosser, and that’s without China, c’mon). Critics don’t matter as long as The Academy loves it and The Academy is closer to audiences in their tastes.
Beautiful Day is a fantastic, deceptively simple, film. It’s a shame that Heller isn’t getting more recognition for what she accomplished.
Never say never though. The film already delivered critical acclaim so if it legs out to the 100M mark in the US by the end of the Holiday Season, it could be seen as a heartwarming sleeper hit that shouldn’t be denied. I’m not expecting that to happen to be honest but it is definitely a legit possibility.
And Universal is ON it, wasting no time at all. Also : McKay is confirmed in lead with Chapman in supporting and the studio is clearly keen on securing the nods for both because 1. they separated them 2. they are not even pretending to campaign for any of the more established players in the ensemble (Colin Firth, Benedict Cumberbatch, Mark Strong, Andrew Scott, Richard Madden). Take off supporting actress from the listed 10 categories; add score, sound and sound editing and that is the 12 categories it has a viable shot at scoring nominations in. Looks good in 10 of them but getting the two acting nominations will be definitely a bigger challenge in such packed categories as such late, and in comparison relatively unknown, entries.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bfa97ac9f164c110dad26aa1162c5c97e692b32e2f451c7f7c64114bf5432a92.png
What is 1917 about; is it about WW1? And didn’t the director just make a war movie about 2 years ago on the same theme?
Mendes never made a WW1 film before.
He had made a war movie before but it wasn’t WW1 and definitely wasn’t two years ago (Jarhead, 2005).
It’s Run Lola Run in WW1.
No. You’re thinking of Mike Leigh, the director of Memento and Kes. He made a WW3 movie called The Dun Kirk Rises.
Dolemite is only on the list because Sasha is trying to promote a film with a mainly black cast to be nominated. Nothing wrong with her having an agenda (her site, her rules) but there’s also nothing wrong with calling it out as not necessarily deserving of a slot.
I can see at least two films on the list less deserving than Dolemite, yet nobody is calling those out because they are mostly white.
Jojo. Everyone’s beating around the bush with that one because of that stupid TIFF award but that exceptionally low MC stings and boxoffice is very average too. So outside of likability and some breezy socio-political messaging, there’s not much to justify a nomination over something stronger let alone a win.
Yet mediocre films get in the BP lineup all the time. Nobody bats an eye, nobody went bonkers about Darkest Hour getting in, people only start throwing tantrums when a less-than-excellent black-lead film gets in.
very true and Jojo will continue the tradition. However, should it won it will be mercilessly called out on it. People generally don’t have problem with mediocre nominees. It’s wins that rile them up. It’s like, be happy that you were nominated at all, why the fuck did you have to win?
After Best Picture Winner Green Book, I don’t think anyone really expects the Oscar winners to be actually good.
true though AMPAS could get more careful this time around. You never know how they think. I bet that, if Jojo didn’t win TIFF, it wouldn’t be in conversation now (low MC, average boxoffice upstaged by Parasite run) and that TIFF win keeps it hot only because of GB win that suddenly marked TIFF as the Oracle of Oracles.
Motherless Brooklyn, I hope?
I was counting two already on the first (“strongest”) list. Haven’t seen Motherless Brooklyn yet (although I’m not terribly hyped to).
I think that Sasha simply thinks that a movie with mainly a black cast will get in and as far as she could see, Dolemite has the best shot. Us fizzled due to stupid twist and has no buzz outside of Lupita who had more buzz than the movie itself from the get-go, when reviews started to drop. Queen&Slim looks DOA as all the buzz this week is with Knives Out (both critical and boxoffice). Waves is not catching fire due to second part of the movie that people have problem with. Harriet is a Lifetime movie that is doing well at the boxoffice but doesn’t have reviews. So Dolemite it is.
Because of #Oscarssowhite, a black themed movies is always guaranteed a place at the table.
pretty much. same goes for SAG Ensemble.
Agree, but I understand why it is so hard for Sasha to let it go. If you want to tick some sort of “race box”, these films would also work:
Parasite
The Farewell
Waves
Harriet
Just Mercy
Queen & Slim
Of them, I have only seen the first four, so I can’t attest to the quality of the Just Mercy and Queen & Slim, but Parasite, Waves, and The Farewell are WAY better than Dolemite. Harriet isn’t perfect, but is also a better film.
So A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood isn’t even in the Best Pic conversation anymore?
boxoffice opening was tepid. It might leg it out but it’s facing strong competition from more popular adult fare such as FvF and Knives Out this week.
That’s a shame. If only pundits stopped trying to make Dolemite happen…
Pundits being exactly one. 🙂
CATS is in fact ready in time for GG & the other awards, I’m expecting it to land Picture, Director, Song, & Tay Supp. Actress at GG’s & Picture, Song, VFX, Production & Supp. Actress Tay at Oscars!
Hoping Joker (imo the best film of the year so far) & CATS land BP noms, that would be awesome!
TSwizzle will win Best Song, Lock it up!
Don’t ignore the theme from Frozen2; and Harriet’s theme song.
After just watching it yesterday, which song are they even going to push? There isn’t a “Let It Go” this time.
They should just go with the lullaby in the beginning.
Harriet song does have a chance. Sequels don’t win Song, but the chance to honor Webber and Tay will prove too hard to resist
What movies have what it takes to get the 250-300 voters to call it the best film of the year? It takes that many to land in the BP lineup right?
Looking at all the possible movies, while there are a lot of very good ones, I don’t think there will be ten that get those votes. I think we’re looking at more like 7 or 8.
I am not sure Joker, Dolemite, Bombshell, Two Popes, and then all the rest that Sasha mentions as possibilities will ultimately have the votes.
That leaves, in no order:
1917
Once Upon A Time…in Hollywood
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Ford v Ferrari
Parasite
That’s seven. And I feel pretty confident that those seven are pretty safe at the moment.
If there are 8, add in Joker.
If there are 9, add in Bombshell
If there are 10, add in Us as a shocker
I’d say we have about 12 films contending (your top 9, Little Women, The Two Popes and The Farewell), which probably will raise the amount of actual nominees since it’s not that large a number of films and thus if votes split somewhat evenly between a larger amount of films would meet the threshold. I’m kind of expecting 9 nominees again for this reason
That’s definitely the 7 near-locks right now.
If there is 9, then common wisdom says it will be The Two Popes and Joker in that order.
BUT
I’m still not sold on either. Joker couldn’t be less the Academy’s type of film (critically divisive comic book film) and The Two Popes would be Netflix’s third BP nominated film that again, I can’t see happening, this film to me feels like a canyoueverforgiveme type : if it gets Oscar nominations, it will be in acting and / or writing. Just like A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood that I still only see possibly cracking writing / acting at best but of course if it has 100M in the bank by the time Oscar voting starts, it could surprise.
So does that mean I only expect 7 in BP ? Not so fast. Depending on reviews and Box Office, I’m low-key expecting one or two of the three dark horses : Little Women, Bombshell and Richard Jewell. For now I would say #8 will be Little Women and that could be the BP lineup but at the same time I can’t rule out Bombshell or Richard Jewell yet, either.
Summary : I think we have 7 down. Now we just have to figure out that if there are 9 slots which two will get it from the above mentioned 6. I would keep it in mind that if the last two slots will be a variation of Joker, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood, Richard Jewell, then it will be an all-male perspective BP lineup with only two films even attempting to look at the female perspective but still leaning toward the male one (Marriage Story, Parasite). So this I think could give the edge to Little Women and Bombshell in the end. IF they are actually great films. If they aren’t, then of course let the best 8-9 get it and if they happen to have all male points of views, well, maybe next time the industry could greenlight more than two female-led prestige pics a year.
P.S. If ANY from the second-tier quintet receives a Directing nod from the HFPA and / or a SAG Ensemble nod, then of course that film will definitely rise above the pack and could join the first-tier as the 8th arrival. I think Little Women and Richard Jewell have the best shot at those two key precursor categories, we’ll see if either can pull it off.
Yes I’ll be shocked if those 7 don’t get nominated.
I think Ferrari isn’t going to fly.
“Having now seen all of the films, I think the strongest for Best Picture right now would be:
[…] Dolemite is My Name”
Drop Dolemite already, Sasha.
“I will not be surprised if any of these movies show up:”
[…]Motherless Brooklyn”
.
.
I, on the other hand, would be VERY surprised if Motherless Brooklyn shows up.
George Conway has a better chance at being named People’s Sexiest Man Alive than Motherless Brooklyn has of being up for BP.
Just stop. She has an opinion and even if you don’t agree just shut up about it. You have no respect for the owner of this site. It’s pathetic.
I have 5 upvotes. You have 4 downvotes. That says it all
Good to know faceless up and down votes is the end all be all!
I really wish downvotes weren’t a thing. It is just so dismissive. Upvotes make sense because its a way to just say yep I agree but have nothing more to say but downvotes feel like a way to say, I think you’re wrong but have no good argument to back myself up.
She has probably been doing this a lot longer than you and she has a lot of good reasoning for having Dolemite there… I don’t personally have it in my predictions yet but there is an obvious possible path for it. SAG could very easily launch it big time into the competition! Right now anything could happen. We are at that point in the race. You don’t need to be so dismissive and smug!
It may well get into SAG but, with SO many incredibly strong movies, I think there’s pretty much no way it also makes the BP lineup. Which would of course make it all the more amazing if Sasha was right on that one, somehow…
I dunno, I think this early we just never know. There are a lot of strong movies but a lot of them have question marks beside them… I really don’t think Dolemite is as much of a stretch as many think it is – it is a biopic with good reviews about a process of making a movie and is one of very few films in the race with a black cast. Those facts alone mean it should at least be considered – especially when there haven’t been any precursors to rule it out yet!
We definitely don’t know anything with any kind of certainty. 🙂 And there are, for sure, good arguments for Dolemite, like the ones you mentioned. I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near enough. And how many solid BP contenders actually miss – shockingly – any given year? Maybe one or two, tops. And there are, like Ferdinand said recently, around 10-12 which all look decidedly stronger than Dolemite. (Especially now that Little Women and 1917 have also landed strongly.) So, even if 1-2 of the top 9 miss (assuming it’ll even be 9, and I’m actually thinking we might get 7 for the first time – though I’ve thought that before), how likely is it that the also very strong-looking 10th-12th places aren’t the ones to replace them, and it’s Dolemite instead? I just don’t think it’s the type of biopic that can pull off that sort of upset. It’s too much on the comedic side, based on what I’ve read. And we all know how “friendly” Oscar voters are to comedies (that aren’t actually quite serious dramas with only some comedic elements)…
Yeah that’s all true, I don’t personally have it in my predictions, I’m just making the point that those being really certain that it will not happen and saying that Sasha is completely ridiculous for including it are just as ridiculous as she is regardless of whether it ends up happening or not. Only a week or so to go before it all starts happening and we can start knowing stuff!
By the way I was thinking about your comment about how many top contenders miss on any given year and I thought it would be good to have a measure of that for future reference so I went to gold derby and looked at 26 November every year how many of the top 8 predicted films missed (just taking the assumption that there are 8 nominees) and from 2019-2011 (skipping 2016 because it wasn’t there for some reason) the answer is 2,0,3,3,3,3,0,2. So basically the answer to that is pretty clearly it could be anything from none to three so if I believed that we were down to 10-12 possible films (which I don’t necessarily but let’s take that assumption for now) then yeah you are right anything on the outside would have no shot.
That’s awesome! (Although I’m a bit surprised at how often as many as 3 have missed. I guess I do remember some of those years… I’d also say this doesn’t mean it’s impossible for anything outside the accepted top 10-12 to get in – even if it’s clearly extremely hard. I’m sure that’s happened before, too. Probably more than once.)