One of the reasons 1917 is so good is because of Sam Mendes’ long history with theater and his ability to work with actors. They rehearsed the film for months before they shot it because they knew once they got on set they would have to be able to act in long takes with no protective edits. Because of this, every performance goes deep and nails the short time they are on screen. With just a few lines, the smaller parts have to be as good as they can possibly be – and miraculously, they are. While people might spend time marveling at the lack of visible edits or wondering where they cut — I was was marveling at these actors so adept at their craft they can fluidly perform without needing the support of a shorter takes and retakes. In other words, they had to know this inside and out as they would in a stage play. And they do. Andrew Scott – BAM. Colin Firth – BAM. Steve Madden – BAM. Benedict Cumberbatch – BAM. Short scenes with maximum payoff by actors who really know what they’re doing and a director who made sure each of them knew deeply who they were, where they were in the story and what they had to convey when the moment came.
And of course Dean-Charles Chapman who is as dedicated a player to the film as a whole as any of them.
This is ensemble work at its absolute best.
But the whole thing wouldn’t work without the film’s heart — and that is the central performance of George MacKay, whose face and emotional reaction to the story IS the story. Mendes keeps the camera trained on his face, tracking his reactions from the beginning all through to the end. He must confront one agonizing decision after another: Should he go back now and leave his friend? Should he retreat when he is told no? Should he stay with someone who asks him to? His resolve only strengthens as the story heads for its conclusion.
MacKay’s work is exceptional – the more you know about the craft of acting, the more you’ll appreciate it. More isn’t necessarily better when it comes to acting. If you have a camera on your face for almost two hours we have to believe that it’s all really happening as it unfolds. The actors themselves are this film’s greatest visual effect and here we see finally why they matter so much.
There probably isn’t a more competitive category this year than Best Actor. In fact, I can’t even think of a year where there was more competition, although there probably has been. Usually there is a frontrunner and a challenger, or at most two really strong contenders in the race. And though we don’t really know who the frontrunner is yet, because the awards haven’t started dropping officially, we already know that it’s packed. It was packed months ago and it just kept getting more packed. Maybe the year 2002, when you had Daniel Day Lewis in Gangs of New York up against Jack Nicholson in About Schmidt and Adrien Brody won for The Pianist. In that case, the vote was split up between two strong contenders and Brody benefitted. Could we be in a situation like that now?
The two frontrunners in this case would be, if you follow the internet punditry world, Joaquin Phoenix for Joker vs. Adam Driver for Marriage Story. Could those two split and allow for an emotional win for a different contender? And could that contender be someone from out of nowhere in a war movie who carries nearly the whole thing on his shoulders? Well, if so then we’re looking at George MacKay for 1917, whose role – minus the weight loss and suffering at the hands of Nazis, must — with his acting alone — carry the narrative thrust of 1917. That’s what The Pianist was: it was mostly Adrien Brody’s acting in a film that followed one guy much the same way 1917 follows one guy.
The big difference between this year and 2002 is that Joaquin Phoenix hasn’t ever won an Oscar and is way overdue by this point, after turning in consistently great work for decades now. A humble actor, he hasn’t exactly chased the win and here, by all accounts, he is deserving. No other performance this year in the Best Actor category has been talked about as much. Ditto Adam Driver, who has also never won. Back in 2002, both Nicholson and Day-Lewis had won at least one Lead Actor Oscar. Both would eventually win three.
Coming so late in the race, MacKay is probably not on many lists and since SAG is voting right now, can he even be recognized enough to crack the top five there? And will that matter even in a year so strange as this one?
Last minute entries so far has also included the excellent Paul Walter Hauser in Richard Jewell who likewise has to be made room for by knocking someone else out.
How does the Best Actor race take shape? Without MacKay or Hauser it looked something like this:
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name*
A fifth slot for either: Adam Sandler-Uncut Gems, Antonio Banderas-Pain and Glory, Robert De Niro-The Irishman
*Most people out there aren’t even considering Eddie Murphy. I am probably the only person out there who is – but maybe it will be right, maybe it will be wrong but I’m not giving up on that one and will go down with the ship.
But remember this — Best Actor is tied to Best Picture a lot of the time, which helps a solid frontrunner like 1917 and means for Phoenix to win Joker should also get in for Best Picture.
So, if The Two Popes is really really liked, more than, say, Marriage Story, Jonathan Pryce will get in. If The Irishman is liked more than, say, Joker, Robert De Niro will get in. If Pain and Glory is liked Antonio Banderas will get in, even if the movie doesn’t make it into Best Picture.
Any of the contenders will benefit from an Academy really liking a movie – like Ford v Ferrari or Jojo Rabbit.
We can’t know that. So many of us in the predicting game make the mistake of thinking WE decide. We don’t. We have to follow the race, not lead it. I would predict it to go something like this:
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
George MacKay, 1917
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
But we’ll have to wait and see how it goes, now won’t we?
These are the other contenders:
Christian Bale, Ford V. Ferrari
Matt Damon, Ford V. Ferrari
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. Waves
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, The Report
Just came out of the theatre, watching “Booksmart”: Great title, terrible film. I was clearly expecting something much more thoughtful than that… I really was ready to love it but in the end there were no real characters to care about, everything so much over-the-top and a depressing mixture of all the lame highschool comedy elements I have already (and too often) seen.
so Time announced Top 10 Films of 2019 and Top 10 Performances:
10. Hustlers
>9. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
>8. Dolemite Is My Name
>7. Knives Out
>6. Parasite
>5. Little Women
>4. Marriage Story
>3. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
>2. The Irishman
>1. Pain & Glory
10. Kristen Stewart (Seberg)
>9. Eddie Murphy (Dolemite)
>8. Margot Robbie (OUATIH)
>7. Joe Pesci (Irishman)
>6. Renee Zellweger (Judy)
>5. Matthias Schoenaerts (The Mustang)
>4. Taylor Russell (Waves)
>3. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
>2. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
>1. Antonio Banderas (Pain&Glory)
Yes for Stewart! If the film wasn’t such a mess, this could’ve been her first nomination.
she needs to drop Charlie’s Angels kind of shit. I know there’s a pressure to be in a hit but wait for Marvel or something if push comes to shove. She works the best in indies and that’s her path to a future nom.
Charlie’s Angels is more or less her first film since Twilight (in 2012) that could be considered a blockbuster film. She took the extraordinary path of playing in indie fare and other projects she found interesting and artistically fulfilling, rather than Hollywood hits after she became a superstar. She can certainly have fun every once in a while with stuff like Charlie’s Angels, which is actually a passion project of Elizabeth Banks, rather than just a studio project for easy reboot money.
That’s why I say have fun with something that’ll work. Like Marvel. wait for Jessica Drew or Sue Storm.
Then again, is making a Marvel movie actually any fun?
ask anyone working with Gunn or Waititi
But in general I doubt that it’s a process that is incredibly fun compared to doing for example a practical effects secret agent movie (although I’m not sure whether Charlie’s Angels has only practical effects, I haven’t seen it)
well, Portman is coming back to Thor, to work with Taika
I meant, it’s probably fun to work with good directors on pretty much anything but in general other Marvel movies probably aren’t any more fun to make than most more serious movies
you are right. the fun stuff is done by CGI stunt doubles so I guess less fun that made out to be.
I checked out. Since they started ranking, the #1 movies were Spotlight, Moonlight, Ladybird and Roma. 2 winners and 2 nominees.
With performers, no winners but either were nominated or they cheated and shared ex aequo among cast members and the film went on to win Best Picture (Spotlight and Moonlight). So in the last 4 years, for a film that earns both number ones, has been followed by Oscar success. This only means the critic has a really similar taste to AMPAS or is a high influence on the race, so if Pain and Glory misses Best Picture AND Actor nominations, would be an anomaly with this precursor that has an excellent track record in foreseeing nominations in the last half decade
In 2014 her favorite was Under the Skin, in 2013 Gravity, so the Under the Skin exception is there
we would both agree that it is way easier to nominate Pain and Glory than Under the Skin. But in the end, I just mean this is a huge step forward for Almodovar and Banderas and the film itself. It demands attention to them, from an influential source, at a key moment of the race
P&G will get in Foreign anyway so it wouldn’t be a miss.
I am glad that Medioker didn’t make the list, as well as joaquin Crapper
You forgot what Phoenix does. Rises from the ashes of Time snub.
The author of this list is Stephanie Zacharek – literally the only critic who didn’t like Phoenix’s performance. So I wouldn’t have much hopes on his snub if I’m on your place. SAG members adore his work in Joker.
SAG members don’t adore him. You probably heard that from Matt Neglia on Twitter. But he was at a Joker Q&A when he heard that. And it was barely 10% of all SAG members that he knows.
Anyways, he will unfortunately probably get a nod, as there is 5 nominees…
Why “unfortunately” ?
So, if that’s true, he knows 10% and you know only that Alec Baldwin tweeted Marriage Story three times (and those two guys from AwardsWatch who say Driver is better) ?
Some anonymous BAFTA voters also said they’ll vote for Phoenix. Driver isn’t even a runner-up in their minds.
Hell, even on Gold Derby they have Phoenix as No.1 now. Same for Scott Feinberg. It’s over buddy, you’re in denial.
Goldderby does not have him 1st because Sasha Stone decided to stan for Eddie Murphy. So she cut Driver from being nominated (which is impossible to happen), and that made him drop a lot. No one believes there will be 3 Netflix guys on acting so she cut him in order to make room for Murphy. When it gets closer to the Oscars things will go back to normal, cuz she don’t wanna be low ranked. She will drop Murphy and Dolemite
Beware of Murphy. If he wins GG Best Actor in Comedy/Musical he is very likely in. Maybe Sasha is right and knows something we don’t ?
I am quite sure that is not the case. Even if he makes it in, it is not at Driver’s expense. Driver is 100% in, and in the worst scenario he will be 3rd most voted. He is top 3, believe me.
I never said Driver will miss nomination. He and Phoenix are locked. The others are in danger, it could go either way for them.
Top 3 for me are – Phoenix, Driver and Banderas. Driver will win NYFCC and Banderas probably LAFCA. Phoenix is winning GG and BAFTA could go either way but let’s say with Banderas, Pryce or Egerton. So it seems SAG will be crucial (Phoenix vs Driver).
You didn’t say that, but Sasha did. I am only explaining why Driver fell hard on Goldderby.
Murphy is in or out? I don’t know. But Iam quite sure he is waaaay behind Driver. There is no way he gets in and Driver not.
I think Sasha should have dropped George Mackay then to make room for Murphy. He is a newcomer and it is more likely to have 3 Netflix actors than Driver being snubbed.
Mackay is not happening. Not in this crowded year. Last year maybe.
Totally agree. This year Malek wouldn’t have even got a nomination.
Aaannndd Driver is now frontrunner according to Sasha’s lastest predictions.
SAG is only voted by actors. They will go for Driver or Banderas, then Phoenix. Banderas has the least showy performance but the one any serious actor would like to give some day.
If you look in previous years in Goldderby’s prediction at this time (end November), you will notice that the top 3 actors never miss (at least in the previous 5 years I checked).
They don’t miss even if the 2nd is miles behind the 1st (as in the year Oldman was the frontrunner miles ahead), let alone now when Driver is just slightly behind.
There is a machine tool in the site in which you can look how predictions were everyday in previous years. You can use it.
So far, the only one with actual wins (Cannes, HFA and likely, EFA where he is the clear frontrunner) is Banderas. That is why I consider him at this point, second to win, after Phoenix. Difference being, Banderas does not need a BP nomination for P&G to win. He may be the film’s only option to win an Oscar, so votes may focus on that. Phoenix, due to the divisive nature of his film probably needs the BP nomination deal of approval, in order to win.
Murphy is building momentum so now I would say he is in, at this point. Driver is a lock. Those are the 4 to beat now.
Fifth one will be anyone else. I still say de Niro
It would be great to see him go all the way and for the record I’m predicting him for the nomination and that is saying a lot this season considering the massive cuts that will be made in Best Actor before they are down to five but I don’t think he will win.
Before last year I would have because I would have just made the argument that Phoenix can’t win because his film isn’t critically acclaimed and is surrounded by controversy but then last year Rami Malek managed to win with a very similar set up : no critical support, loads of controversy BUT a flashy role and a worldwide total in the 1B range on only a midrange budget.
And if feature-wise-relative-unknown-at-the-time Rami Malek could make that equation work then I think three-time nominee Joaquin Phoenix will be able to make it work, as well.
And I say this as someone who while found Phoenix’s performance stellar and deserving of recognition, I did hate the film.
Rami won because Freddie is beloved and he had enough resemblance to him to convince people they were watching the real deal (the casting of other Queen members helped too and they definitely built a time machine to pick up Brian May from the past). Joker is a beloved villain and Joaquin embodied Arthur/Joker to perfection plus played the character in different stage of his life, so comparison to Ledger take isn’t working against him. those are 2 brilliant, iconic takes on Joker. Moreover, the movie overcame unprecedented pre-release backlash to become a cultural phenomenon with tremendous staying power and repeat views. The topic moved away from “will incite incels to commit mass shootings” to “iconic performance, historical boxoffice, selfies on Joker stairs, impact on cinema given that its success is achieved with R rating and no China, etc”
Just your daily reminder that Laura “Universal Acclaim” Dern is snatching all the wigs this year and will probably win a major award (and then some) for all three of her 2019 projects : Oscar for Marriage Story, SAG Ensemble for Little Women, Golden Globe for Big Little Lies.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2caa46f6f6735011d87da7193187ce4938fd1a2ae3e6ad04140fa74fa08a0190.png
she could win for body of work/banner year even though I’m not sold on her MS win without one of MS leads.
I think she will win come what may because she way clear of her competition, even more than Zellweger is in lead. But you are probably right that there’s like a second acting win to go with her. That’s why Driver is favourite for lead, and I think he will win it. You’re making the case even more for Driver to win lead actor.
except that Driver is facing a due actor in an iconic star turn.
Well, it all helps but that’s never the defining reason for winning an Oscar. They have to like the performance, the actor and the role.
true which is why Phoenix is winning. I don’t think that his excentricity is disliked. It’s excentricity not being a jerk.
It’s going to be hard to ignore Bale for Best Actor in Ford V Ferrari! People are going to LOVE this film. And the actors will too! But far out – what a year! SO exciting! I’m really looking forward to seeing The Irishman and Knives Out next…
Yeah, I still see Bale making it here & there with these big industry organizations. He’s right in there.
I didn’t know how much I needed Cats up until now. I need Cats. I need it to be an Oscar nominated movie. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/253ecd03854b936a590d524ee43c9ddf39d7d7fa5fc419497f3b0510cb76ee4d.jpg
Looking forward to it but hoping I don’t like it too much because my Oscar plate is already full.
I’m really curious what they’ll do with Elba’s role. That role is silent in the original musical.
Now that Sasha has admitted Dolemite is a long shot, I will cease my joking about it.
Wow. I knew many critics liked Knives Out quite a bit but just saw it’s at 85 on MC after 37 reviews. That is impressive. Would be awesome to see it do well with some screenplay love this awards season.
I think WGA / Oscar nods in Original could definitely happen what I’m more curious to see if it can crack the SAG Ensemble category. It was kind of made for it yet seems to be under the radar on that front.
MacKay was extraordinary. Absolute emotional wipeout by the last scene and he does it all with such subtlety. Audience applauded and I think it was for him.
How does it compare to Road to Perdition, the only Mendes I like anymore these days?
Great movie
Road is a terrific movie, but aren’t we forgetting American Beauty? That was his best hour, I may change my mind once I see 1917
It has (ACTORS NAME REDACTED) in it so we’re not allowed to mention it anymore.
I loved American Beauty when it came out. But while I still think it’s good I don’t think it’s that good twenty years later. In a year where Magnolia and The Insider came out and have stood strong for two decades, I think AB has kind of lost it’s luster. It’s still very good, I just don’t think great.
Well, I could have told that twenty years. I was screaming those films should be winning all the awards that year. Still, I think AB is treated unfairly. At the time it looked daring BP winner. It was certainly far from the usual safe options the Academy went for at the time.
ROAD is one stolid movie and I’d argue to a fault and not one of Mendes’ best hours.1917 is immediate and visceral and gripping and emotionally overwhelming and even daring.
I found that one to be soulless. My Mendes is Skyfall…
Strong reviews for Little Women so far, they will be matched here by stronger belittlement, I am sure… https://media1.giphy.com/media/j2NIf39jcVp40yYqhm/giphy.gif
1994 Little Women had nearly the same reviews and didn’t stick the landing. I do think LW this year should perform better.
By the way, no director has directed two Best Picture winners with a 20 year gap in between. The longest gap between two BP winners by a director was The Lost Weekend (1946) and The Apartment (1961) both directed by Billy Wilder. The next gap is William Wyler who directed The Best Year’s of Our Lives (1947) and Ben Hur (1960) (He also directed Mrs Miniver which won in 1943). So Sam Mendes, who directed 2000 Best Picture winner American Beauty, has some big hurdles to clear aside from the late release date, action-heavy war film, etc. in order to win Best Picture.
Only THREE movies with a number or numbers in the title have ever been able to win. Once in three decades is so rare, that 1917 is definitely out of the race!
Kidding. I loved that stat, but maybe it doesn’t mean much.
1917 has a great MC score of 86 after 11 reviews. The score maybe great but the reviews are not overflowing with superlatives. There is not the WOW you’d expect from such a film. Gerwig had a much more difficult job, but she has done it very well. And I believe she stands to be rewarded for it.
I think 1917 is delivering the high scores it was expected to deliver and Little Women is shocking us all at the moment a bit because while we all expected it to do well, I don’t think we expected it to sit at 89 on MC based on 20 reviews. At least I didn’t and I’m fairly certain I was one of the more bullish ones when it came to predicting the performance of this film.
Long story short : I think both are near-locks in BP and are serious contenders for BD nominations, as well.
While you guys are hyped about 1917, I am hyping Little Women. I just think it is the stronger BP contender due to a very likely BAS win and acting nomination(s) and possible win for Ronan if the film wins BP or even if it’s very close. I am on the Little Women train.
Good for you, the film is destined to be a hit with critics, audiences and award voters so the Little Women train is definitely a good place to be on. I’m not sold on its BP / BD chances past the nomination stage, but the rest I could see happening.
Then what are you sold on right now?
For Little Women ? I am low-key sold on it receiving nominations in 10 categories, winning two.
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Lead Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Score
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Costume Design
Best Art Direction
Between the big studio push, proper rave reviews, potentially damn strong Holiday-fuelled Box Office and what I expect to be a very healthy showing at SAG (Ensemble, Ronan, Pugh), I think it will be definitely a top5 contender in BP just not necessarily a top2 one. I could be wrong.
Ronan winning over Zellweger, Theron and Johansson? Possible if the film performs very well at the Oscars, but it would definitely be one of its harder wins. Not the second to get, IMO.
I love Zellweger and would love to see her win Best Actress for the first time.
BUT
if the final three turns out to be Zellweger, Theron and Ronan, Ronan will have the advantage of being the only one who has never won before and in a film that is expected to be a much bigger deal at the Oscars than Judy or Bombshell.
Also she can be perceived as due because she was very close to win with Ladybird. It wasn’t just a filler nom.
If I’m being honest I would have given her the Oscar for Brooklyn over Brie Larson. To me both Ronan’s film and performance were more memorable.
Larson performance and movie were the worst in the Actress line-up. She basically won because of the type of role, mother courage escapes abuse.
I too disliked both the movie and the performance(s). But at least Brie Larson has an Oscar, which isn’t a bad thing, in a vacuum…
I too disliked both the movie and the performance(s). But at least Brie Larson has an Oscar, which isn’t a bad thing, in a vacuum…
you are as hot as your latest Oscar. And, so far, none of her post-Oscar movies lived up to it, not even close.
Yeah, but she did some good work prior to the win. I guess it’s the old Oscar curse at it again… 🙂
Nah, I disagree. It was harder film to make and they did very well. That’s why it got BD nomination. I think it was my favourite of the nominees, except Fury Road. I think it was my third favourite that year overall. Inside Out was my favourite. I am sorry, but Room is the much better film. You can argue Ronan was better. It was a really close call, but I went for Larson because I loved her film much more.
It is all subjective so needless to say I have zero problem with this. You preferred Room, I preferred Brooklyn.
I know that. I was just stating that I loved Room. I see many films like Brooklyn, but Room was something very different and showed us a world we never see. Showing the world through a child who never seen the real world was magical, even though the subject was very disturbing. It’s a Great job by the director and the two main actors.
By far…
No, I meant which films are you sold on winning the major categories? I have no question that it will be nominated in BP and BD. Gerwig will be winning BAD and will be very close in BP and BD.
I’m expecting
– 1917 to take Picture and Cinematography
– The Irishman to take Director and Editing
– Marriage Story to take Original and Supporting Actress
– Little Women to take Adapted and Lead Actress
– Joker and OUATIH to take the Actor categories
– Parasite to take International Film
I think Parasite has been the biggest loser after the arrival of Little Women and 1917. I agree with most of those but 1017 just winning BP without any major categories is not odd but seems ridiculous, especially when there are great alternatives. And you really think that the BD or either of the screenplay winner will BP? 1917 will struggle to get screenplay and acting nominations. It looks more like BD winner than a BP winner. I also disagree on lead and supporting actor winners. It’s too early, but I don’t both will win. I think Phoenix is close, but I have big doubts about Pitt. I just don’t understand that one at all.
Granted I only have a vague idea of who may win what but for now this is my take. The reason why I have 1917 above the pack is because it will probably benefit from the combination of
– Box Office (unlike The Irishman, Marriage Story, The Two Popes)
– Oscar-friendly release date (unlike OUATIH)
– a corresponding BD nomination (unlike Ford v Ferrari)
– a Brand New Story to tell (unlike Little Women)
– the English language stat (unlike Parasite)
– the reviews (unlike Joker and Jojo Rabbit)
It’s not even that it has the most going for it, it’s more like most of its competition is missing at least one key ingredient that is usually crucial to go all the way in BP.
Box office? Yes, to a point. But it has not been an issue for BP in preferential era. The others are all negligible and not as big a hurdle as missing acting or screenplay let alone both. And remember they usually go for films with a strong screenplay. But you think it somehow wins BD without BD, which is its best route to BP? Those are not ingredients, 1917 could well miss the key ingredients.
We’ll know what’s up with 1917 soon. In order to have a shot at winning BP it will need a nomination in Screenplay (potentially foreshadowed by one at the Golden Globes) and the support of the biggest Academy branch, the Actors (potentially foreshadowed by a SAG Ensemble nod). If it fails to gain traction on these two fronts, it is probably another Dunkirk : BP / BD nods and tech wins but nothing more.
After Sasha going on for years about late-breakers not winning, I’m not exactly sure 1917’s release dates qualify as Oscar-friendly.
In the last 10 years only 1 film won with a release date outside the October-December frame. Very late December releases may turn out to be “too late” in the end but more often than not the Academy embraces them a whole lot more than films with earlier release dates.
And no film won without being seen by the September festivals at the latest. Release date wise, Hollywood and 1917 and Little Women all have problems compared to the films in the “sweet spot” (those that premiered in Venice, Telluride, TIFF…).
That’s a valid point, as well.
That’s pretty much the reason I was predicting it too… until the critics decided it wasn’t happening. 🙁
That’s pretty much the reason I was predicting it too… until the critics decided it wasn’t happening. 🙁
Jojo. Parasite has its own narrative (historical win if it happens) that doesn’t overlap with anyone else’s. Those who want to vote for it and make the history happen won’t switch to LW. OTOH, LW is directly threatening the category that Jojo was tipped to win (Adapted) so that would be a blow. On top of that, it’s also a message crowd-pleaser that, unlike Jojo, is peaking at the right time. And has much stronger reception. The number of movies better received than Jojo that are vying for the same audience (crowd-pleaser lovers, socio-political message watchers) is growing by a day.
Marriage Story taking Supporting makes no sense at all without one of leads winning as well. OTOH, LW taking supporting actress without the lead makes sense because Pugh got quite a few “MVP” mentions and Amy March is much bigger role than Dern’s lawyer. I think that MS will win Original Script only.
Since 2000 there have been 5 cases of a film winning two acting awards, meaning that since 2000 34 supporting winners have won Oscars without lead wins for their films. What is so different about Marriage Story?
I was about to make the same argument.
Supporting player isn’t the MVP. When supporting actor/actress wins without the lead, it’s usally because they were more acclaimed/had juicier role, etc. Octavia Spencer won for baking a shitcake. That’s all everyone was talking about coming out of the movie. shitcake. Mo’mique was so dominant in her movie that, while the lead did a fine job herself, she was the star. Waltz was the star of both of his wins even though he was not the lead (though case could be made of his being a co-lead with Foxx). Just sayin that dern isn’t in the league with these wins going by reviews. The movie firmly belongs to Driver and Johnasson not to a supporting player stealing the show.
But being the best performer in your film and being the best in your category isn’t the same thing. Being chosen as the best in your category is what wins you the Oscar. She is not competiting against her co-stars, and she is way stronger than everyone else in her category. She is more respected and loved than any of them, and her film is one of the strongest films. And she is way overdue for a win. Also, why is it a surprise that she’s not MVP in her film? That’s what supporting is all about. The lead role tends to get the meatier role and best parts. Being MVP of your film doesn’t count for much if the performance isn’t strong enough to win its category. And you can win by being the strongest in your category without being the MVP of your film.
that is true so maybe those MVPs were coincidently MVPs in their movies but voters found them the strongest in their category.
Yes, but there are thing factors that decide who wins. Narrative, competition and BP strengthen are important too. Dern looks the most likely winner from her film because she has the best narrative and least competition.
Least competition is a point of view, Anakin. I’d say that Lopez is a strong comeptition. Just because predictors don’t take her seriously, doesn’t mean precursors and AMPAS won’t. And there’s Pugh who’s getting MVP reviews from some critics. So while Dern has the narrative, AMPAS is weird. Sometimes someone wins on narrative, sometimes cause due, sometimes because performance/role resonated, sometimes because they were simply the best. It’s hard to gauge how they’ll vote.
It’s all opinions. That might or might not be the case. We are going by the strength they currently have. The future is not so certain.
Always in motion future is.
But Viola Davis, Alan Arkin, Cate Blanchett, Chris Cooper, Jim Broadbent and Jennifer Connelly weren’t talked about as being the absolute MVPs of their movies and yet they won those films’ only acting Oscars even though other performances from those movies were nominated as well
Ah, OK. I admit my mistake. It’s all about category competition. Lopez wins, though. Indie Spirit gives her legitimacy and Time just name her #2 performance of 2019.
To be precise, Time film critic Stephanie Zacharek named it the second best performance of the year, meaning that the performance is the second favourite performance of the year for one person, who also named Hustlers one of the best films of the year, meaning that she likes the movie more than a lot of Oscar voters most likely will
true though La Lopez was the only woman to break TIFF critics Top 10 performances.
Agree with you about everything except Ronan winning Lead Actress. And I have Ford vs Ferrari for editing.
Legit choices. Tbf I’m just shooting in the dark for now.
Curious. What do you deem a ‘damn strong’ holiday box office? Because earlier this month LW was tracking to open under $20M, closer to $15.
But that’s just it, a 15-20M opening weekend in the Holiday Season almost guarantees a 100M domestic total. Not to mention that OW number would be great for this type of film in any month of the year but most definitely in late December. Not like there are many female-led period dramas that opened in the double digits let alone in the 20M range.
I would love to be on the Little Women traine because I’m considerably more excited about that movie than 1917 or really anything else I haven’t seen yet this season but you preface the idea of Little Women being able to win the correct categories with “If Little Women wins best picture or gets close”, and one could say similar things about 1917 with screenplay and actor nominations and a director win, so it would be in about as good a position if 1917 were to win best picture or come close (also, it’s not necessarily useful to prove that something is winning best picture by a statement that starts “If this film wins best picture”)
I am not sure I follow. I was referring to Ronan winning if her film wins BP. I just don’t think she is strong enough to win against Zellweger on her own and need to ride the wave the film might take.
I apologize, I read it as “If Little Women wins best picture or comes close, it’s going to win adapted screenplay and maybe actress”, which, while being true, wouldn’t really be an argument for the film winning best picture and could be used for 1917 as well
I meant coattails wins after winning BP or even other major awards. I think Ronan needs her film to be very close to winning and or even ride on the coattails of Gerwig winning BAS.
And I agree with that. Ronan doesn’t seem to have the kind of performance that can win without people being very passionate about the film but if the film succeeds, she could win. I just misread your comment as an odd circular deduction where the best picture win would lead to a best actress win which would again lead to a best picture win
Yes, that’s what I mean. She needs the passion of her film to catapult her to a win.
LW isn’t an “Actress must win” type of a movie. It’s an ensemble so the biggest star is the director. I think that out winners will be Zellwegger and Phoenix because they are classic leads, no co-starring, no ensemble, no “is great but MVP is [someone else]”.
Now, Pugh could change the Supporting race. Dern win without Johansson or Driver doesn’t feel right, and will AMPAS go for Lopez or think award is her reward? So here’s an opening for an ingenue with a banner year to sneak in a la Vikander.
Fully agree on Pugh, spot on. Also i worry about vote-splitting for Robbie, it would be a shame if she misses completely…
I thought so too plus Bombshell won’t be a hit at the boxoffice and characters are not likable unlike LW ones. We’ll see. Robbie is the real deal. She’ll win soon, preferably in Lead.
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90 from 21 reviews now. 7 100s.
We have a big Oscar contender. And I mean big. Sorry I doubted you, Gerwig. Phantom was right all along. I think it could become the BP favourite, but I currently have it in second place behind The Irishman. The reason why I rate it so highly is simple: Adapted Screenplay now belongs to Gerwig; I think it could become the BP favourite, but I currently have it in second place behind The Irishman. I believe she is second in BD (at worst a close third); but the biggest reason is that it has the best narrative of all the contenders. I believe both screenplays belong to real life coupleBaumbach and Gerwig (Phantom predicted that could happen, which looked fanciful at the time but it’s very realistic now), and I still expect Baumbach to win BOS even though he might miss BD due to his likely domination of the category. And if the film is as strong as I think, it’s going push Ronan to a Best Actress win. If LW wins BP, Best Actress belongs to Ronan. I think this film has the best narrative and also has people who have been close in recent years, unlike the competition (except Parasite, of course) who are previous Oscar winners in way or another.
I think it can definitely win Adapted Screenplay and Lead Actress and score a bunch of nominations that probably won’t translate to wins (Picture, Director). We’ll see soon enough. For what it’s worth its biggest obstacle was getting the reviews, the rest should come easy for this one : wide release in the Holiday season all but guarantees good / great Box Office and perfect timing for peaking just when Oscar voting goes down.
I think that Jojo started to sink. This is another crowd-pleaser with way higher critical reception that entered the competition and it’s gonna peak at the right time. Also, Adapted was supposedly Jojo’s to lose but LW looks like a shoo-in for the win. Praise for the script is staggering.
And the writing categories always go to critically acclaimed films. I’m sure Jojo is a great film but “critically acclaimed” it ain’t.
I am beyond excited about seeing 1917. I hope it delivers and turns the race upside down.
While you guys are hyped up about 1917, I am hyped up about Little Women. I just think it is the stronger BP contender due to a very likely BAS win and acting nomination(s) and possible win for Ronan if the film wins BP or even if it’s just very close.
Its best shot at winning is definitely in Adapted Screenplay and Lead Actress. If the film gets the nominations in other big categories (Picture, Director) then those wins in writing and acting could definitely happen.
I don’t believe BP and BD nominations are even a question. I believe Little Women second in BP and Gerwig is second in BD.
The umpteenth adaptation aspect may get in the way of BP / BD wins but I think the nominations are happening.
I understand that. However, if it’s winning screenplay, then it could very well win BP and/or BD. Umpteenth adaptations can win if the film is very strong and offer something new.
“1917” opening to an avarage of 100% Rotten Tomatoes. 91 Metascore.
86 after 11 reviews. Who would’ve thought the Gerwig will have the higher MC today.
I don’t think it’s that surprising. A one-take Sam Mendes war movie getting even an 86 on Metacritic is in my opinion pretty good because elements like “traditional war movie”, “Oscar baity visual trick” and “directed by someone who, while talented and respected, isn’t particularly considered to be the coolest filmmaker” don’t read as the kind of story and stylistic points that would excite the film critics who get their reviews posted on Metacritic
I was fooled by the early reactions. I don’t usually believe them, but in this case it felt like it was more than just everyone being hyped for the cool new film. The reactions felt extraordinarily positive. Lesson learned I guess (even though the reviews did turn out to be very good).
Timing sucked big time for the 1917 embargo but they couldn’t have known. On any day that 86 start on MC would have been considered a triumph but an 86 mere hours after a fellow late entry delivered a very surprising 89 kinda gets the “meh” reaction at this very moment. This is why it is important to remember that the 86 IS actually a great number suggesting universal acclaim. And just to put it in perspective, if it stays around 86, it will be also higher than fellow presumed near-locks in BP : OUATIH (83), Ford v Ferrari (81) and Jojo Rabbit (58).
The timing isn’t so bad. What is most important is how well the film is received. It’s been received very well so far. However, the score is very high the critics are not bowled over by it. That’s the only way I would’ve bought into the 1917 hype. For me Little Women is the bigger contender. It has the higher score and more passion; it’s stronger in major categories, and it has the better narrative because it’s a film about women by women who have been close in recent years but are yet to win.
yes, there’s a big campaign this year to get at least one woman director in the line up for several made acclaimed/hit movies. However, it looks like Gerwig will walk away with a Director nom at least and Adapted win at least. Reasons being: Harriet is a boxoffice hit but critical dud, Queen and Slim seems like a boxoffice non-starter (it needed it to sustain buzz) by the look of tracking and its meta (74) isn’t all that hot, and Neighborhood has solid meta (80) but shaky boxofice start due to too much adult competition. So LW is positioned to do really well during holidays and Meta is already stronger than woman director competition and not likely to drop below any of them. So yeah, if a woman gets nominated, it’s going to be Gerwig. Push out Baumbach (lol) or Waititi.
I agree, but it’s not a just a filler nomination. I would be pissed if it was just a filler nomination, but it seems Gerwig has something great. I think the narrative will position it to win major awards? Can it win more than Adapted Screenplay?
of course it isn’t a filler if Adapted is hers to take. At least that category. I meant women not as a filler but in general that this year produced contenders.
OK, I went through the main categories (sans scripts) and came to the arguable conclusion that while there is only one slot up for grabs in Picture, Director, Lead Actress and Supporting Actress, the two Actor categories remain the hot messes that they have been for quite a while now (the ones I would be confident to predict officially are in grey).
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Awesome spreadsheet – thanks for sharing …
Thanks!
In a way i agree, seems that in this strange balance, the Best Picture Nom factor might make a difference this year. It’s only logical to predict both noms happening (Pic along with a’ male ) and then of course it will-as always- help picking the winner from the 5 noms for the male performance.
OT: I re-watched Frozen today and I’m going to see Frozen 2 tomorrow. I hereby declare the holiday season has now officially started! ❄️
First group of critics announced their nominations. Both De Niro and Pacino snnubed. No Little Women, nor Bombshell. “1917” made the cut! Robbie got in for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”, that leads the nominations.
Los Angeles Online Film Critics Society (or Hollywood Film Critics Association) nominees:
Best Picture
1917
Booksmart
The Farewell
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Waves
Best Actor
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Best Actress
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Taylor Russell, Waves
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
Best Adapted Screenplay
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
Scott Silver and Todd Phillips, Joker
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Best Original Screenplay
Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won, Parasite
Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel, & Katie Silberman, Booksmart
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Rian Johnson, Knives Out
Best Male Director
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Female Director
Alma Har’el, Honey Boy
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Olivia Wilde, Booksmart
Breakthrough Performance
Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose
Kelvin Harrison Jr, Waves
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Taylor Russell, Waves
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
Best Foreign Language Film
The Farewell (US/China)
Monos (Colombia)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France)
Best Cinematography
Drew Daniel, Waves
Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse
Lawrence Sher, Joker
Robert Richardson, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Roger Deakins, 1917
Best Costume Design
Arianne Phillips, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Julian Day, Rocketman
Jacqueline Durran, Little Women
Ruth E Carter, Dolemite is My Name
Mark Bridges, Joker
Best Editing
Fred Raskin, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Lee Smith, 1917
Michael McCusker, Ford V. Ferrari
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman
Yang Jin-mo, Parasite
Best Hair and Makeup
Judy
Bombshell
Joker
The Irishman
Rocketman
Best Original Song
“Catchy Song,” The Lego Movie: The Second Part
“Glasgow,” Wild Rose
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“Into The Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Speechless,” Aladdin
Best Score
Alexandre Desplat, Little Women
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker
Michael Abels, Us
Thomas Newman, 1917
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves
they changed their organization’s name minutes before announcing the nominations…that should tell their validity or lack there of…they are fighting for relevance…don’t buy into this….i have an organization called mom and pop critics choice awards. Will be giving away awards on december 12
Gerwig is the only nom for LW and it’s in the female director category (so not that surprising at all). To get no above the line noms is a bit of a shock to me honestly. No Ronan and no screenplay are shockers to me.
JP, the filme received 2 below the line nominations: Best Score for Desplat and Best Costume Design for Jacqueline Durran. But interesting to see Bombshell only scoring Best Actress. And No De Niro and No Pacino.
I just said ‘no above the line nominations’ meaning there were some below the line. I’m not shocked in a couple below the line noms. But zero above is eyebrow-raising.
Then again, are we giving this group much thought this year ? Because that would be a first.
These are the nominations for one eventually not that important critics’ group. I get that you’re doubtful of this movie (based on your other comments) but this is not praticularly meaningful. These misses are as important as for example Mendes missing male director in terms of his film winning best picture
I get these basically mean shit. But I still find it interesting. I have my doubts but still think or thought it would show up on these types of meaningless noms.
Who are these guys? They are not LAFCA.
Something I don’t understand- given the SAG dates, why did they release 1917 so late? Surely they knew it was a contender?
It was finished 6 days ago, Mendes was still in post-production early last week.
The whole timeline is positively eastwoodian : it was scheduled for the December 2020 release in December 2018, principal photography took place from April til June this year and post-production had just wrapped a week ago.
Quite the feat that Mendes pulled it off considering the scope of the film and the time constraints of the production.
I’ve enjoyed George Mackay’s work since The Boys Are Back with Clive Owen. His performances in Pride, Sunshine on Leith really impressed me. He’s a very sensitive and accessible presence on screen.
Sasha I love you but I’m not sure you know a ton about the craft of acting.
Long takes are a luxury for an actor. You’re in control of your performance. Anyone who relies on editing and “quick takes” is not an actor.
That’s not at all how I read Sasha’s article. Long takes would be a luxury if it was evident that there was plenty of other coverage to be crafted into a scene but not if the construct is to look seamless and without cuts.
Sasha went to acting school at some point. I’m sure she knows a bit about the craft.
Right now De Niro is my #1, but it’s a very tight list after him.
I was today years old when I finally realized that the other lead in 1917 is Tommen from GoT. Don’t @ me.
Amateur, I caught that ages ago (= yesterday after it was pointed out to me).
I’m miffed that Tommen isn’t getting as much attention as this guy.
Sasha, you can rule out Matt Damon, Roman Griffin Davis, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Robert Pattinson, Adam Driver (for The Report) and Edward Norton. Their chances are close to zero.
Nicholson has only one twice in lead, his second win was in supporting.
There are at least 13 major contenders in this category including four veterans who could receive their first Best Actor nomination (Pryce, Banderas, Murphy, Sandler) and three relative unknowns making strong impressions in potential BP nominees (MacKay, Hauser, Davis).
At the same time Academy fave Bale is in a critically acclaimed Box Office hit; living legend Elton John is campaigning hard for Egerton; three-time nominee Phoenix is in his biggest hit yet; and the films of the Driver-DiCaprio-De Niro trio are all expected to be strong BP contenders.
Long story short, no matter who the final five will be, there will be outrage everywhere because 8 epic performances will be most definitely snubbed. Question is which 8.
My current guess for the Oscar top5 : Phoenix, Driver, Banderas, Bale, MacKay.
Shocking, I KNOW.
Down Voter is welcome to share a counter argument. If (s)he has one.
I wish you could see who the down voters are haha
Same but then again we wouldn’t have any down votes if the ones doing it had to own up to them.
I’m more of an “if I don’t agree with your argument I will share my counter argument” type and never got the “I don’t like what you’re saying but I don’t have anything to add other than the bitchy, passive-aggressive, nameless downvote” crowd.
Oh well. I hope they are happy.
I fear for Sasha’s sanity this season. It’s really a mess with contenders to win being declared every day and new nominees dropping in by an hour.
This category has been an epic hot mess this season. The timeline of all the craziness :
– May 16 – Rocketman (Cannes)
– May 17 – Pain & Glory (Cannes)
– May 21 – Once Upon a Time in … Hollywood (Cannes)
– August 29 – Marriage Story (Venice)
– August 30 – Ford v Ferrari (Telluride)
– August 30 – Uncut Gems (Telluride)
– August 31 – Joker (Venice)
– August 31 – The Two Popes (Telluride)
– September 7 – Dolemite is My Name (TIFF)
– September 8 – Jojo Rabbit (TIFF)
– September 27 – The Irishman (NYFF)
– November 20 – Richard Jewell (AFI)
– November 23 – 1917 (industry screenings)
I guess the shock at the moment is that after an uneventful October we all kinda believed that we “only” have to figure out the five slots with the 11 major contenders who had been already seen and reviewed. There was some vague background noise that Hauser could surprise but absolutely zero chatter about MacKay mainly because nobody knew if the film even has a lead or if it is just a big ensemble with no leads like Dunkirk.
I think the general sentiment was that we were already fucked when he had 11 and 6 to cut but now we have 13 with 8 to cut. Bloodbath through and through and whatever the final quintet will be, there will be outrage, that’s the one thing I am ready to predict with certainty.
When are critics awards dropping to at least divert us and have people overreact?
LAOFCS are dropping nominations right now on Twitter. Although it’s only their 3rd awards season and aren’t very influential. They changed their name to Hollywood Critics Association, and as a fun fact, Jazz is a member.
The first important one (NYFCC) is December 4, I believe.
Damn so a week away from first relevant one. Oh well. Thanks.
I think NBR / NYFCC are next week but would have to check.
For now, I have to tie in Best Actor with movies that are also strong bets for Best Picture noms.
In no order:
Driver
DiCaprio
Bale
MacKay
Phoenix even though I’m not sold on Joker making the cut
I’m tempted to consider Phoenix vulnerable but for now I’m still predicting him for the win. And at the same time I wouldn’t be super shocked if he missed out on the nomination, either. Crazy season.
He’s a terrific young actor. Loved his work in Captain Fantastic and he was one of the best things in Marrowbone and Ophelia. I can’t wait to see his turn in Mendes’ film.
OK, I went through the main categories (sans scripts) and came to the arguable conclusion that while there is only one slot up for grabs in Picture, Director, Lead Actress and Supporting Actress, the two actor categories remain the hot messes that they have been for quite a while now (the ones I would be confident to predict officially are in grey).
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