What a difference a date change makes. Pushing up the Oscar ballot deadline, and the Oscars themselves, has thrust the Oscar race into chaos. Before ballots are turned in, the only awards happening in time to have any influence will be the Golden Globes. This has always been kind of true with the Globes functioning as kind of a dress rehearsal for the Oscars, but it is especially true this year with many of the major guild influencers taken out of the equation, at least for nominations.
Here’s a reminder of how the compressed calendar looks:
Globes voting window — November 26-December 6 (10 days)
Nominations announced December 9
DGA voting window – December 2 – January 6 (roughly a month)
Nominees Announced January 7
WGA voting window – December 9 – January 2 (roughly a month)
Nominees announced January 6
PGA voting window – December 12 – January 6 (roughly a month)
Nominees announced January 7
SAG voting window – now through December 6 (two weeks)
Nominees announced December 11
Oscar voting window – Jan 2 – Jan 7 (less than a week)
Nominations announced January 13
What else will happen between now and the ballot deadline for the Globes? The National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics announce their choices. The Los Angeles Film Critics will announce shortly thereafter.
But the biggest influence by far will be the Golden Globe and SAG nominations. Both are coming early in December and both will be big public events with lots of stars attending. And red carpet, red carpet, red carpet.
This is a year of very big stars in big Oscar movies, like Bombshell with Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman – can you imagine just those three alone on the red carpet? Doesn’t it seem likely that they might show up at the Globes? Then there is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio showing up on the red carpet. And of course Dolemite Is My Name with Eddie Murphy. Ford v Ferrari with Christian Bale and Matt Damon. The Irishman with literal living legends, Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci walking the red carpet. How do you top that? Think about the excitement that will bring, just seeing them show up?
And then to have Joaquin Phoenix saunter in with a billion dollar international box office take? Then Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit along with Sam Rockwell, and Marriage Story with Adam Driver and Laura Dern, the Little Women ensemble, Saoirse Ronan, Laura Dern, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh. The Two Popes’ Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce.
Not to mention 1917’s Big Fish – Benedict Cumberbatch, Colin Firth, Andrew Scott, and Richard Madden? Sherlock and Mr. Darcy with the Fleabag and Bodyguard heartthrobs? Not to mention the film’s actual stars George MacKay and Dean-Charles Chapman. You have to hand it to Sam Mendes and Universal for turning out a massive war epic with two stars who aren’t yet household names. That’s faith, devotion, and commitment.
Of course, the Golden Globes divide the films and lead acting categories into two groups – Drama and Musical/Comedy, but we don’t yet know the film that will emerge to redefine the race as we know it.
Last year the Globes put Bohemian Rhapsody in the race in a really big way, in a way that most people who were reading the race weren’t. What movie will they push into the top categories that people are underestimating?
My best guess is that they will likely pick the following films:
Top Tier – Drama:
1917 – There are going to be groups that really get this movie and groups that don’t. The more you know and appreciate about the Great War, the more you will appreciate this film. The deeper you dive into what that war meant, the more the Mendes masterpiece will resonate. I suspect that the Globe voters, as well as the BAFTA voters, will get it a lot more than Americans who aren’t all that knowledgable about it. We know a lot more about WWII than WWI. This is the kind of film Globe voters tend to cherish – sweeping epics with strong emotional impact.
The Irishman – Of course they love Martin Scorsese, and they will appreciate this very deep and sober look at the life of a mobster. They like Scorsese anyway — even rapid-fire vulgar Scorsese — but they will respond to this film because it is such a graceful downshift for The Professor.
The Two Popes or Marriage Story – Is there any chance they don’t go for The Two Popes? Sure. They might go for Marriage Story instead, but with only five slots for drama for Netflix, are they going to fill up three of them with Netflix and ignore the other studios? I don’t think so. Maybe. Maybe they’ll like Marriage Story better than this, but The Two Popes just led the AARP nominations and it seems right up Globes’ alley. This film, with these stars, and this subject matter seems almost like it was tailor made for this voting group. In fact, it might LEAD the Globe nominations with Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay.
Little Women or Bombshell – I do not think both will get in. Both are all female casts with big stars but Bombshell’s stars are bigger and something about it makes me think the Globes are going to go for it. But they just as easily could go for Little Women, which is probably going to slide into a Best Picture nomination. But I do think these two films will be an either/or situation. I could be wrong, of course, maybe both get in.
Ford v Ferrari – I’m betting on this right now as a long shot even though it isn’t a Gold Derby favorite. But it’s such a warm-hearted crowd-pleaser with an international cast. This could be the movie the Globes elevate in the race that the pundits really aren’t. There is always one. Maybe it’s this, maybe it isn’t. Who knows.
Joker – This is such a monster of a blockbuster and so many people love it, even if it is divisive. But remember, the studio also matters and this could be the Warner Bros. get, though that could also be Richard Jewell or Just Mercy.
What else?
A Hidden Life could get a MAJOR boost here which would kickstart it into the race in a big way.
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Just Mercy
Waves
Us
Dark Waters
In the Musical / Comedy Category, I suspect they might go:
Jojo Rabbit – The sweet, funny comedy could do a lot better at the Globes, especially in the acting categories but also with director and screenplay. There aren’t a lot of feel good movies in the race, but this one makes you feel good. It makes you feel FREE. And is an uplifting delight as much as it is wicked in its humor.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – They love Tarantino anyway but this film is – I really do believe – his best. It, too, is a crowd-pleaser. If you’ve ever seen it with a big crowd you’ll know that. Big stars, big director. It seems like it could land in most of the categories.
Dolemite Is My Name – With three of the four Netflix movies in drama, there is no such conflict here in Comedy/Musical. It could do very well considering it’s yet another massive crowd-pleaser. And like the two above films it has a happy, satisfying ending. Eddie Murphy could do well in the lead acting category, though he does have to go up against Leo, whom they adore.
Rocketman – It’s an actual musical, not just a film with music in it. This is another film that could land hard here and earn nominations across the board, like Bohemian Rhapsody did. And it too could be elevated and pushed into the Best Picture/Best Actor race if the Globes start that train.
Knives Out or Uncut Gems – Both of these movies are, I think, fighting for that fifth slot. Conventional wisdom says Knives Out will have the edge there and that could be right. It’s a movie that is pro-immigrant, anti-Trump in a very overt fashion. It could be one of the films the Globes elevate. Although let it be known that Uncut Gems hit the AARP too, surprisingly, and the Spirits as well. It might be one that continues its streak as it barrels towards the Oscars.
What else?
Hustlers
Cats
Booksmart
Peanut Butter Falcon
Blinded by the Light
Late Night
What do you think, oh wise Oscarwatchers?
Dame Judi Dench & Sir Ian McKellen! They put the dairy in legendairy! Jason Derulo! Taylor Swift! Musical number with James Corden! Jennifer Hudson will win her 2nd Oscar! Meow, meow, meow!
I haven’t seen Knives Out yet. Don’t know anything about the plot yet, thank goodness. Tomorrow, finally!
But I must say. So many twitter reactions and reviews single out Ana de Armas as truly great.
I realize she’s primed for some awards buzz next year or so. But … is it just too late to get something going for her THIS year?
Are we/industry types just conditioned already to assume that the Best Actress line-up is confined to: Zellweger, ScarJo, Theron, Ronan and one of Awkwafina/Erivo/Woodard/N’yongo? Armas can’t get in?
This IS a star making turn for de Armas. She’s terrific in the movie (as is everyone else, frankly). I love that a movie that could have been mishandled and dumped into the wrong time of year, is going to make some good bank.
The HCA (formerly the LAOFCA) announced its nominations earlier this week, and there were some surprises:
– Robbie nominated for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood instead of Bombshell
– Pesci nominated for The Irishman instead of Pacino [although Pesci is better]
– No nomination for De Niro and no Cinematography nomination for The Irishman
– Joker nearly tops nominations with 7
– Booksmart nominated for Picture
– Mendes misses in Director despite being assumed a lock days after the initial screenings (though 1917 snags Picture and a host of technical nominations)
– Little Women nominated for Director, Score, and Costume Design, but not for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Ronan, or Pugh (or Streep)
– Waves receives a respectable 5 nominations, including deserving mentions for Brown, Russell, and Cinematography
– Both Pryce and Hopkins miss for The Two Popes (though it snags Adapted Screenplay)
– No nomination for Dafoe (though it snags Cinematography)
– Lupita nominated for Us
– No nomination for Banderas or Almodovar
Marriage Story, Parasite, and The Farewell did almost exactly as expected (the gender-separated Director category means the latter would have received 4 nominations, and I’m still skeptical that Bong’s film scores in acting, although Roma is a decent precedent).
***
Full “Oscar-adjacent” nominations list below:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (8): Picture, Male Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design
The Irishman (7): Picture, Male Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Editing, Visual Effects, Hair and Makeup
Joker (7): Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score, Costume Design, Hair and Makeup
Marriage Story (6): Picture, Male Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress
The Farewell (5): Picture, Female Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress
Parasite (5): Picture, Male Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, FLF
Waves (5): Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Score
1917 (5): Picture, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Visual Effects
Booksmart (3): Picture, Female Director, Original Screenplay
Jojo Rabbit (3): Picture, Male Director, Adapted Screenplay
Little Women (3): Female Director, Score, Costume Design
Rocketman (3): Actor, Costume Design, Hair and Makeup
Honey Boy (2): Female Director, Supporting Actor
Hustlers (2): Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress
Dolemite Is My Name (2): Actor, Costume Design
Bombshell (2): Actress, Hair and Makeup
Judy (2): Actress, Hair and Makeup
Us (2): Actress, Score
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (1): Supporting Actor
Knives Out (1): Original Screenplay
The Two Popes (1): Adapted Screenplay
Ford v Ferrari (1): Editing
The Lighthouse (1): Cinematography
Pain and Glory (1): FLF
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (1): FLF
Brilliant – thanks for the update!
To be honest, I can see The Two Popes, Marriage Story and The Irishman getting in Best Picture nominees. But it may be the reward for Netflix. These are strong films! For now, 1917 wins BP.
I doubt The Two Popes is happening, but I agree with the other two.
I’m hopeful that Pryce, Hopkins, and the screenplay are recognized by AMPAS.
So what’s the scuttlebutt with members this year? From anything I’ve read here and there, I heard that …….
They loved The Irishman
They loved The Two Popes
They loved Jojo Rabbit.
They loved Hustlers
They at least really liked Ford v Ferrari
I think they were mixed on OUATIH
They were not wild about Rocketman (… but, Elton)
Anyone else heard anything about what they supposedly liked or didn’t ???
They hate Joker. Isn’t that what Anne Thompson said
There ya go! Thanks for the info 🙂
That’s good.
Where has she said that?
I don’t know if this is common knowledge, but I just discovered that each HFPA member gets five votes for nominations. So the process, and the dynamics are very different than at the Oscars. Means that a small number of passionate supporters aren’t enough here, you need one of the five votes of a large number of HFPA members. It also means that you do not need to be a “#1” type of film to get in, you can be a film that everyone likes enough to put in their top 5. Fascinating indeed, and doesn’t bode well for divisive films.
BAFTA proceeds the same way, and I assume it’s the most common method among awards bodies with a nomination phase. As usual, AMPAS is the one doing things differently with preferential voting (PGA also but those are the only two I can think of right now).
That is incredibly useful. Thank you for telling this
I honestly think that The Two Popes is the type of film the HFPA falls hard ala-Philomena even if both are quite different films. Thinking if they really Really like it, it would get in:
Drama
Lead Actor
Supporting Actor
Directing
Writing
Score
Also, why do I have a feeling that Gabriel Yared’s score for Judy will also get in among the nominees?
Yared is a wonderful composer and has been nominated many, many times in the past. I could see it.
You forgot that with the Comedy Musical contenders out of Drama competition, Banderas might easily earn his 5th GG nomination. Which he never won.
What is the love for knives out about?! Hot take here. Rian Johnson seems like a genuinely cool guy and I’ll see anything he makes but I have only seen one completely satisfying film from him and that’s Brick which still holds up as great.
Because it’s a great movie, that’s why.
The mystery is fun but slight and unimpressive and the topical themes are interesting but certainly not deep in anyway since all the characters are fun and broad but shallow characters. If you think this is a great mystery go read a great mystery novel or watch Brick again and get back to me.
Quick question: are the dialogs in Knives Out so subtle and idiomatic I should absolutely see it in English or is it OK if I see it in French?
Back to sleep now, thanks.
As much fun as it looks to be, I’m not getting much of a subtle vibe from Knives Out. But won’t you want to hear the accents that the actors lather on with a spatula?
Oh right, the accents! I hadn’t thought of that. I’m going to listen to the trailers again to see how much of a difference they make.
Daniel Craig’s accent is the best thing in the film, don’t miss it!
Ok thx. I’m going to re-schedule stuff so I can attend an english screening on Friday afternoon.
“The Two Popes” has its spot assured in Drama. I know two journalists who vote for the Globes and one of them told me that Golden Globes Members are just crazy about the film. I don’t see it losing a nomination. And it is competing in the Drama category.
I think that Americans have hard time fathoming that 2 Popes would really appeal to FOREIGN press. It’s tailor made for them – topic that interests majority, winning performances by actors who strike good likeness to real life figures, accessible movie in every way.
With so many average and some atrociously bad biopics embraced by the industry in the past few years, it will be just one more shame in the line of First Man that The Two Popes misses a Best Picture nomination.
Did he tell you about other categories and movies? Are Irishman, Joker, Marriage Story getting in? What about actors and actresses?
They really liked “Rocketman” too, including Taron. With The Irishman actors, they prefered Pesci, over De Niro and Pacino. They really liked Marriage Story, and yesterday they were part of the event of “1917” With the cast, Deakins and Mendes, and they told me, it was one of the most fantastic experiences they have ever enjoyed.
2 out of 100 is not a representative sample. Not even close. As I’ve said before, these anecdotes, like the Oscar ballots, are completely unreliable. Completely
Agreed.
Having said that I could totally see the chatter turning out to be true about them being head over heels in love with The Two Popes, Rocketman, Marriage Story and 1917.
I think even if The Two Popes over indexes (nominations in picture, actor, supporting actor, screenplay, maybe even director) and knocks out, well, probably Ford v Ferrari from the Drama BP lineup since the other four (1917, Little Women, Marriage Story, The Irishman) seem to be set due to being major threats in other top categorie); then FvF will probably still just return the favour at the Oscars because while TTP definitely is a film the HFPA could go gaga over it isn’t necessarily one I could see the guilds / Academy embrace. Meanwhile Ford v Ferrari was made for guilds and if the guilds will embrace it, so will the Academy.
As for Rocketman, anything more (OR less) than the 3 widely expected nominations (picture, actor, song) would be a huge shocker.
So the wild card here remains 1917 : apparently the HFPA got the invite to a big, lavish event they loved. It also had to be one of the last films that was screened to them so we know it is still fresh in their memory which begs the question : could 1917 over index then, as well ? 3 nods (Picture, director, score) are widely expected but could it sneak into categories it hasn’t even been considered for up until a few days ago (screenplay, actor, supporting actor) ? Because if they weren’t super into De Niro / Pacino, there may be openings in the actor categories right about now.
P.S. Most important thing about the HFPA though : while they have influence being one of the oldest and most high-profile American film awards organisations, at the end of the day it is only 90 voters with virtually zero overlap with Oscar voters (I think a single one of them is an Oscar voter). So while perception-wise it is important to do well here, at the end of the day the major guilds with major Oscar overlap (PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG, ACE, Eddie) are much more representative of what Academy voters may go for, even if this year Oscar voters won’t actually know what most of the guilds went for before voting closes.
I think the overhyping, especially its glitzy launch, is going to kill 1917’s chances. It might work on HFPA, but the Oscars don’t like that kind of thing. I think it has to be a masterpiece to withstanding the criticism it’s going to get. I also read a review that compared it Saving Private Ryan and in a negative way. That film has a lot answer for because I believe it’s the film that is responsible for what I called a gotcha filmmaking. Those first 20 odd opening minutes is what passes for a showy direction that wows people, but the rest of the film is bare or not too much. So many directors have tried to repeat that to win Oscar BD. I always though Mendes is a good stager so I am not surprised that he would make a film like this. Weirdly enough, Spielberg has gone the opposite direction and his recent films have far from showy. That might change with his West Side Story remake next year.
Everything seems to be compared to older films in a negative way. For example I remember when The Shape of Water came out the critics at Venice very clearly expressed that it’s no Pan’s Labyrinth, yet it won best picture
I was referring to this:
“”One of the most devastating manoeuvres in the history of negative Oscar campaigning was carried out in the 1999 season, when word was successfully put about – by the office of Harvey Weinstein, no less – that Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private Ryan didn’t amount to much more than its undeniably impressive opening 27 minutes.
“You sense that slur would be received as rapturous praise by Sam Mendes’s 1917, which in spirit is those 27 minutes and nothing but, showily stretched out to feature length.”
I have been a long time critic of Saving Private Ryan, for many reasons really. But one of the reasons I fault it for is that it gave birth to these films with big technical direction which don’t have much of a story other than to show their technical prowess. In a sense, they are not BP films and they might not even have been intended to be. The best director award used to go the best film, but now it’s like BD is completely separate from BP. I don’t like these hollow films. I want them to have a proper story that is good enough to win Best Picture. I am not a fan of SPR, but it is an epic story compared to these copycats. I am thinking of THL, Gravity, The Revenant, Dunkirk and 1917. Although THL had similar opening to SPR, it was far from hollow. But it to seem to draw attention to its technical prowess. Dunkirk was restrained so I like it a lot. In the end, it didn’t win anything because it just didn’t have a strong enough story to tell. I am not looking forward to 1917, because doesn’t seem to be anything there beyond its technic. And I will say it again: I am not surprised by that one bit because I long thought Mendes is a good stager. Okay, many directors cam do these technical direction because are all very good at that. But I thought Mendes was better than most. Nolan is good at that, but I think Mendes is a better stager. Young Chazelle is good as well and he doesn’t draw attention to it unlike others. But the best stager, without question, is Spielberg and it is his film SPR which is the template for the technical direction of films. I just wish they would only use it in service of a proper story.
1) This is a comment by someone who hasn’t seen 1917 and thus can’t assess 1917 as a film or compare it to Saving Private Ryan (the person he’s quoting doesn’t seem to consider it a problem for the Oscars either at least based on that quote, as he is saying that it is similar to another best director winner
2) This is a comment that is complaining about the way Oscar voters give out their awards. I would imagine that enough voters disagree with this since they voted for those movies. I’d imagine that even if the writer doesn’t think the movie will do well at the Oscars, he/she doesn’t think the reason for it is that voters would suddenly turn on their ways of voting for several years. I wouldn’t consider this anything more than one person’s argument for why the approach the Oscars have is wrong, not a reason for that approach possibly changing
3) I feel like this argument claims that Spielberg either created technically showy, formally obsessed cinema where characters and plot are pushed to the background for showcasing filmmaking as itself with Saving Private Ryan or that films nowadays are aiming for a best director win throughout their planning and making and thus choose to ignore story and character. The former is ignoring film history (try the Russian montage filmmakers if you want to start moving towards that kind of cinema in terms of narrative cinema (not that it’s necessarily the beginning, it’s just an easy example early on, Spielberg hasn’t got anything on what Eisenstein did with October in terms of pushing characters to the side to get to do fun stuff with the artform), if you want to go to before the era when narrative and characters became the main focus of cinema, all trick films of the 1890s and 1900s, like the films of Georges Méliès, would apply here) and the latter is an insult to filmmakers who are not considering the films they make as not having interesting characters or story
So you’re saying it has zero chances of getting any screenplay nominations anywhere? (Just trying to get more clarity on that whole situation, because I’ve seen other people say it could.)
That’s my instinct at the moment. There are plenty of big screenplays this season, so it’s tough even if 1917 is a big BP contender. It’s hard to tell without seeing it. I felt the same about TR and Dunkirk, too. This is a real technical film and the fact it’s in one take and the characters aren’t doing much more than surviving war battle makes think its screenplay is weak.
Truth is, intuitively, I agree with you. It’s hard to picture it being nominated for screenplay – or acting. But Sasha at least has said its screenplay is very strong… (Not sure if others have as well.)
The critics were definitely right on that one, in any case. 🙂
2 out of 100 is not representative. The point is, he didn’t say only these 2 went crazy about these movies. He said that these people know more members and these members went crazy about these movies.
It can be, let’s say, 20 members or more
Thank u.
Any chance Joker makes it into Drama film from what you’ve heard from the HFPA?
NGNG: Lopez is winning GG Supporting and that’s gonna be the beginning of her path to Oscar win. BAFTA Supporting is going to Pugh.
I think Supporting Actress remains a three-way race and right this moment I would give the edge to Laura Dern for a banner year BUT I have a peculiar theory how she may lose steam thus making room for one of the other two in the process : at the SAG, Golden Globes and Critics Choice she is widely expected to be a double nominee for Marriage Story and Big Little Lies and that means that she could split votes with herself OR win on the tv side with voters opting for someone else on the film side and if she fails to win at least the SAG or the Golden Globe for Marriage Story, she could be in trouble Oscar-wise.
And that’s when Margot Robbie could come in, a previously nominated it girl movie star leading lady playing a baity, sympathetic supporting role in an important film about workplace sexual harassment. Add the fact that she also has OUATIH this year and she may just have enough steam to go all the way in the end. BUT this is of course all contingent on Bombshell doing at least relatively well with critics and audiences, even a hint of flop status on either front won’t fly in such a strong year.
Meanwhile I could be just seriously underestimating how massive the J-Lo campaign could turn out to be and for all I know, she could just take the Golden Globe and the SAG without breaking a sweat, with Bafta probably going to Florence Pugh or Maggie Smith.
But for now my money is on the brilliant, long overdue and very deserving Laura Dern. She already has two confirmed critical darlings in the BP race on top a widely celebrated television turn, a performance that turned her character into an instant icon with memorable zingers turning into slang overnight. Long story short, this feels like her year. If not she could just go all Renata Klein on us all :
https://media2.giphy.com/media/SSKAqT4jYux0jEtjUi/giphy.gif
Dern doesn’t have to split but win both. GG have history of giving multiple awards to the same actor on the same night. Winslet (Supporting and Lead), Heigl (Comedy Feature Film and TV Drama), just to name a few.
that’s why I marked my predix NGNG. I expect Dern to win but Lopez is getting taken seriously so that’s a path.
Heigl ?
You have not heard that name for a long time, Obi Wan. 😉
That I have not 🙂
Comedy for that Apatow movie that everyone loved and now can’t remember and TV Drama for that doctor show.
Ahhhh, that’s why I was confused. Katherine Heigl has never won a Golden Globe, nor did any of her films.
LOL she didn’t win for that movie? Why did I think she posed with 2?
I think she won an Emmy but only one. You are probably remembering Winslet (similar first name, age, hair, body type) who posed with her two Golden Globes around the same time Heigl’s career high was happening (massive hit show (16-25M viewers per ep for the first 6 seasons) + 3 consecutive BO hits (Knocked Up, 27 Dresses, The Ugly Truth).
It is fascinating to remember that for a brief moment in time (2007 – 2009) not even that long ago, Katherine Heigl was one of the biggest Box Office draws and also the Emmy winning star of a massive hit show. Grows to show that one should never believe their own hype or things can go awry fast. I think she was a rather good actress in those days so maybe she will just pull a Downey on us one day.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a7cd13635f24514f968c2802d365eeba7209126ba2504e85e2ab2f19efadc2a0.jpg
I hear she had too much « character ».
Yes, I remember vividly that she started to act like a big diva right after. Didn’t want to be campaigned for the TV show. then left. then slammed Apatow. And then started to make a string of bad movies all the while being arrogant or at least media made her appear so.
Yes, never bite the hands that feed you; never take your status for granted; especially not in show business where fortunes rise and fall so fast.
well said
True. At the same time, if someone “only” had attitude issues that she not long after owned up to completely AND never had major scandalous incidents to recover from, she probably shouldn’t have been blacklisted for life.
Sure, she threw hissy fits over presidential suite demands on press tours, complained about writing and long hours on the Grey’s set and read Apatow and crew for filth for having their male characters all be loveable goofballs while the women in their films (at the time) were always the joy kill shrews BUT not like a man who gets 12M per film (Heigl’s quote at the time) would even have to demand the damn presidential suite, he would get it automatically and while the Grey’s / Knocked Up comments were most definitely regrettable (even if true, it is unprofessional), it’s not like she was lying she was just saying things out loud everyone assumed she never would dare.
Wow, you sure know a lot more about the situation than I do and almost make me want to sympathize with her. Blackislisting someone for life for being too difficult does sound harsh and unfair. But I also heard she had issues with co-stars (male or female) as in “no one could stand her”, which is usually not a good sign and a recipe for disaster, so I wonder if there’s any truth to it or if this is just trash talk meant to get back at her for speaking out?
I read two profiles about her sudden rise and fall roughly a decade ago, I think one was in THR that detailed the presidential suite story and another in EW that was basically her last ditch “mea culpa” effort trying to save her film career after one too many flops were directly blamed on her bad reputation.
My take on the whole thing was that she was probably an overworked, stressed out nightmare there for a while (for 3-4 years there she was shooting 24 episodes + studio films in her annual hiatuses from the show) with bad attitude and while some of her “truth telling” was accurate af, the industry at the time was still in a place where they could blacklist a woman if she didn’t fall in line. It was the perfect storm : she should have conducted herself much more professionally because she should have known that as a woman in the film industry in those days (10 years ago) she didn’t have nearly as much wiggle room for bad behaviour than her male counterparts.
To be fair men with lesser track records and mainstream success get away with a whole lot more than what cost Heigl her career. I’m sure she had regrettable diva moments (though nothing big, “just” attitude issues, I think) but more often than not when a man with a hit show and / or hit movies suddenly has somewhat extra demands, he just gets them without being labelled “difficult”.
If a woman with the exact same success dares to be extra, she is automatically “difficult”. Which is of course code for “bitch”. Which is of course code for “successful woman”.
very true.
In fairness to Heigl, she was the best thing in Grey’s Anatomy and the show went downhill after her exit. She’s also worthy of an Oscar nod in Knocked Up. Hoping she could return to making these smart comedies and meaty dramas, probably indies.
I remember being frustrated with her career choices because while she was textbook movie star / leading lady material with the rare combination of powerful dramatic flare (Grey’s Anatomy) and rather strong comic timing (Knocked Up), she shouldn’t have checked out of the show that kept her relevant and popular on a weekly basis the second her feature career took off and on the feature side, while she had massive financial hits there for a while (Knocked Up, 27 Dresses, The Ugly Truth), she never got past the romcom queen box and that’s a pity because she definitely had great potential. HAS great potential, I mean she is still young and active so hopefully she will have some sort of a creative / commercial comeback at some point in the near future.
I think you might be right about this. I think Dern may sweep critics’ awards and Lopez the industry ones. We know the industry loves Dern, but Lopez is going to campaign hard with a lot of star power seduction over voters. Plus, she’s undeniably great in the 100m+ hit and has a comeback narrative.
yep plus she might just pick up some critics awards along the way. after all, she made TIFF critic’s Top 10 (the only actress to do so in the lineup of 9 actors) so I guess whoever voted for her then will likely vote again.
It will be a biopic bloodbath for the last BP slot
1. The Irishman
2. Parasite
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. 1917
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Joker
Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Richard Jewell and Dolemite is My Name for the final slot. I wish The Farewell and Pain and Glory had a shot but this year is very strong for Hollywood majors + Netflix.
I think Ford v Ferrari is in the top8 and Joker is on the outside looking in, fighting The Two Popes, Bombshell, Richard Jewell and A Beautiful in the Neighborhood (in that order) for the 9th slot. If there even will be a 9th slot, it could just be another 8-slot BP year.
I don’t see Dolemite happening in BP this year unless it surprises in the SAG Ensemble category. Speaking of SAG Ensemble + PGA, I think there is a short list of films that could surprise at both and (re)start talk of a potential BP nomination that in the end won’t actually happen. The short list being Endgame, Downton Abbey and The Rise of Skywalker. I don’t expect any of the three to make the cut in BP but I could easily see any of the three surprise at SAG and / or the PGA.
I wonder if it is mathematically possible to have ten nominees.
I just wish they would go back to the set 10 slots, this 5 to 10 (that will never be 5-6 or 10) is annoying.
I dare say the year has more than 10 worthy nominees so a TOP-10 would it justice.
yes yes YES!
Mathematically possible, statistically very unlikely.
Then anything could happen, in a year like this. So it’s a distant possibility.
My gut for predicting Joker over the rest is the number of 100s in Metacritic, a very good proxy for passion (which makes you get the damn number 1 ballots). It has a Metascore of 59 but 8 100s. Ford v Ferrari has 6 with a much higher Metascore of 81.
Joker will be definitely helped by the preferential system that does favour divisive films. It doesn’t need to be liked by thousands of Oscar voters, only loved by a few hundred to secure the BP nod and that could happen. I’m just wary because the Academy has gone out of their way to ignore films in the comic book genre before and I just don’t see them making an exception for one that isn’t even universally acclaimed. Could happen but it would be definitely a move I wouldn’t expect from them based on their history.
I hope it gets in. Something to make studios change their mind about a) R rated movies (they are not lesser earners), b) budget (strong performance is as big as or bigger money shot than SFX/CGI/splosions so no need to overspend and c) China pandering isn’t be all and end all of boxoffice cause movies can make a ton without it (and studios keep very small % from that market anyway with no change for better in sight).
All strong points studios should definitely take into consideration from now on regardless of Oscar performance.
agreed.
I could be wrong, but I don’t believe Disney is screening Rise of Skywalker in time for SAG nominations. Unless there was a sag screening I missed. But yes, there are viable paths for Downton Abbey and Endgame to show up in the SAG Ensemble category. I still don’t think they will score any above the line nominations at the Oscars, but I suppose that could shift if SAG gets behind them and the campaign shifts.
In regards to JP’s list, I too would remove Joker. In slots 8 and 9 I think Ford v Ferrari and Bombshell make it.
Time for Globes predictions:
Drama:
The Irishman
1917
Marriage Story
Little Women
The Two Popes
Comedy:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
Cats
Rocketman
Dolemite is my Name
Director:
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sam Mendes, 1917
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
alt: Tom Hooper, Cats (if that film manages to get a positive reception)
Screenplay:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
The Two Popes
Only Hollywood and Little Women get the Pic+Dir+Scr trifecta, catapulting them to Oscar frontrunner status.
Love it…..
Parasite would surely have got in for Picture if it was legible.
Yes, and it will get in for foreign language, but at the moment I’m not predicting it to be in both directing and screenplay here. Directing is probably more likely, which I have it nominated for.
But what if it did get in for screenplay? would that be a sign it’s winning BP?
Not necessarily, but getting all 3 at the Globes is powerful. The eventual Best Picture winner always did it in recent years, and generally only a couple of films did it each year, sometimes just one. So yes, I believe post-GG nominations, we have to start looking for the BP frontrunner among the films that got all 3.
The last 13 BP winners got all 3, in fact. (Crash only made the screenplay lineup.)
Due to the abbreviated season all eyes will be on the Golden Globes for sure and it could be a big moment for presumed second-tier contenders like The Two Popes, Joker, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood, Richard Jewell and Bombshell. If any of these films manages to score at least two nominations in the picture /director / screenplay trifecta, that film will get a huge boost perception-wise. Common wisdom says that could be The Two Popes (picture + script ?) but I think this could be where Bombshell (picture + script) or Richard Jewell (picture + director) could surprise just as well.
It will be also crucial for the presumed near-lock octet who now will have to prove that the buzz around them isn’t just online hype. So the same rules apply : any of the 8 that doesn’t score at least two nods in picture / director / screenplay will be perceived as a disappointment and could be hurt due to the short season with less time to recover from any sort of bad buzz. So will the 8 be able to deliver ? Let’s see :
DRAMA – This one is full and to make matters worse all films in the second-tier quintet are on the Drama side, too, so while the five below seem solid, if any loses a BP nod, that will be considered a big blow to the campaign in question.
The Irishman (looks good for picture + director + screenplay)
1917 (looks good for picture + director, may even sneak into script)
Little Women (looks good for picture + screenplay, may sneak into director)
Marriage Story (looks good for picture + screenplay, may sneak into director)
Ford v Ferrari (looks good for picture, may sneak into screenplay, director a long shot)
COMEDY – Plenty of wiggle room here and the chance for an under-the-radar player to make a splash. Dolemite, Rocketman, Knives Out, Hustlers are all viable filler options here (BP without BD) and since we are talking about the HFPA (Burlesque, Nine, The Phantom of the Opera, The Producers etc), the still-unseen Cats shouldn’t be underestimated, either. I think if there will be a surprise here then it will be the heartwarming sleeper hit that was The Peanut Butter Falcon. If a presumed filler BP nominee like Knives Out for example snuck into screenplay, too, that would be a minor game changer for their campaign, as well.
Once Upon a Time (looks good for picture + director + screenplay)
Jojo Rabbit (looks good for picture, may sneak into screenplay, director a long shot)
INTERNATIONAL
Parasite (looks good for foreign language film + director + screenplay)
Long story short : Make or break time for all the contenders. Since it is a short season a disappointing showing here could only be rectified with a better than expected SAG showing and since Actors are the biggest Academy branch and unlike the HFPA, SAG actually has an overlap with Oscar voters, to me the most exciting precursor category this season is the SAG Outstanding Cast category. Now THAT will be truly make or break for them all as far as positive perception essential for the nomination stage, goes.
P.S. I personally expect three films to deliver THE picture / director / screenplay trifecta : The Irishman, 1917, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time. Needless to say that if a somewhat underestimated player delivers the trifecta, too (The Two Popes, Jojo Rabbit, Bombshell, Richard Jewell, Joker), then that player could be the big surprise of the season as far as the BP category at the Oscars goes. I don’t see that happening but at this point anything can still most definitely happen.
LW is going to upstage Bombshell in every way. Likable characters, beloved story, female director, boxoffice bonanza. Bombshell’s gonna bomb. I’m sure it;s a good movie with great performances but Megyn Kelly is not a likable persona.
I agree that Little Women will be definitely the bigger deal but I don’t think we can write off Bombshell just yet, too many unknown variables in that equation still. For all we know it could get better than expected reviews (like LW just did) and even if it opens low, the lucrative Holiday weekdays could still turn it into a modest hit in the end.
IF it flops with critics (under 65 MC) and audiences (under 30M by Oscar nominations morning) then I agree it will be definitely snubbed save for Theron and Robbie.
For what it’s worth I do think it would have to surprise BIG time (81+ MC, 50M+ domestic) to come near the presumed octet of near-locks in BP.
I have no doubt it’ll get strong reviews but no one cares for political movies during holiday season and there are too many targeting women (LW, Cats, TROS, Jumanji sequel – the previous one did very well with ladies)
Bombshell is already upstaging Little Women with the acting Buzz so I don’t know what you’re talking about.
Saoirse Ronan’s performance is the only one standing between Renée and her Oscar. And I LOVE them both
https://media3.giphy.com/media/D14YUMx6dJT0Y/giphy.gif
https://media2.giphy.com/media/CuDx3LRP9E2pW/giphy.gif
LOL, they are clearly even with acting buzz. Ronan/Theron and Pugh/Robbie.
I dont think its either/or case with LW and Bombshell at Oscars both might get in like Moonlight and Fences……
maybe but I’m not feeling Bomshell. I expect it to do worse than Vice.
“The Two Popes” has its spot assured in Drama. I have 2 friends who are voting members of the Globes and they said the voting body is just crazy about the film. I don’t see it losing a nomination.
So you expect 1917 to get in for screenplay? Interesting…
I think this year is going to be the most exciting year we have for a long time. It’s going to be all over the place because the ceremonies are going to overlap each other and there will not enough time to influence each other. We usually get the same acting winners, but I think the acting winners will be big mess. I think the nominations will be a big mess. Weirdly, enough the might make predicting winners easier because there will less overlap. Only one Picture might hit all the key nominations and precursors. The same for acting and other categories.
well said.
Quick question: are the dialogs in Knives Out so subtle and topical I should absolutely see it in English or is it OK if I see it in French?
Back to sleep now, thanks.