It’s shocking that this is all happening so fast. Yikes. How did it ever come down to this? Well, here is your chance to wow us with your prediction skills. Give it a go!
It’s shocking that this is all happening so fast. Yikes. How did it ever come down to this? Well, here is your chance to wow us with your prediction skills. Give it a go!
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I am getting back in to change just one category. I put Laura Dern in twice for supporting—for MS and LW. Except I cannot do that on my iPod, and my computer is broken. So I guess I am letting the error stand. I will try to fix it later. ETA: I fixed it.
NGNG
Pain and Glory nominated for Foreign, Actor Drama, Supporting Actress, Director, Screenplay and Score
Uncut Gems 3 noms (Picture, Actor, Director)
Animated: Klaus, I lost my body and Wheathering with you, all three make the cut.
ULTRA MEGA NGNG:
Anna Paquin, Supporting Actress, The Irishman
Just finished “Marriage Story”. Great film, very touching, genuine and amazingly acted. Not only Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, but also so many remarkable supporting performances: Laura Dern, Alan Alda, Julie Hagerty – this is probably my favourite ensemble film of the year. Not quite my favourite film all in all, but surely close.
What I especially liked is the mixture of tragic and funny aspects, sometimes both happening in one scene – Baumbach has clearly an amazing timing, both as a screenwriter and as a director. I hope he gets a nomination for both parts. The score was also great.
Damn, this rarely happens, that I like so many of the declared frontrunners: OUATIH, The Irishman, Parasite and now Marriage Story. I wouldn´t argue with any of those winning Best Picture!
I hated it. Once you know, Baumbach is basically retelling his versoin of his divorce, the mysoginist tone is even more apparent, and Baumbach himself appears as an arrogant figure so desperate of appreciation that has half the cast calling his alter ego, a “genius”. Julie Hagerty was MVP to me, and Adam Driver delivers a great performance from an easy role to any skilled actor, with a couple of Oscar clips clearly manufactured for that sense… one of them preceeded by an akward and unbelievable scene with an evaluator that is portrayed as somewhat autistic (because she is basically a plot device to underline Driver’s character). The film is simply put, not good. Just excellently acted, but it is a BAD screenplay coming from a man, that I have the sense, after watching the film, is in desperate need of therapy to overcome his past divorce.
I would add, this is a film I will ALWAYS compare to Lars von Trier’s The House that Jack Built, in which LvT deals with the constant accusations of being mysoginist, by directly taking his part of the blame and admitting his failure, as Jack is LvT’s alter ego. Baumbach whines, while Lars thinks about his very own faults.
It´s probably funny, but to me this autobiographic – or let´s say gossip – aspect was no point of interest at all. I usually couldn´t care less if a director tells his own story or not, because it´s a feature film after all, and while it seems logical that there are always certain aspects of the artist´s personal life/experience flowing into his work I don´t know what this could mean regarding what I personally get out of it?
And besides, in my view the portrait of the couple was pretty balanced, I don´t see Baumbach putting Driver´s character into an glorified light and condemning Johansson´s character, not at all. The autistic character you mention is – in my interpretation – a symbolic figure to exemplify the absurd handling of official process-making in context of a divorce.
And, yes, that´s a lot happing you can cry about, but pretty much to laugh about too – and often in one and the same scene – and that´s quite brilliant, in my opinion!
Baumbach is a skilled screenwriter, he perfectly knows what he is doing. The obvious mysoginia, him constantly whining about his ex lawyers, the way he is portraying everything and even himself… it is more over the top and puerile than most critics think. I have to say that the only character I cared about, was Julie Hagerty’s a complete scene stealer with her energy and positive portrait (which is later destroyed by Driver/Baumbach during his breakdown). I find it terrible, that he is delivering a whole feature film to whine about divorce laws and his ex lawyer, while at the same time asking us to feel pity for him, rather than take full blame on his part of the failure of his marriage. I would compare from now on, Baumbach’s behavior to von Trier’s with The House that Jack Built, where, yeah, Lars really takes the blame for his use of women on his films, during his career (which is underlined at the magnificent ending)
But once again, why should it be important to figure out how much autobiographic stuff is put into the story? I truly don´t care about Baumbachs personal life.
And the lawyers are lawyers, on both sides – they cause lot of pain for both parts, don´t they?
But funny that you are complaining about Baumbachs assumed ego and than praising von Trier 😉
because von Trier, uses himself to take direct blame of the industry (ab)use of women and violence, he includes himself as target, not object of praise. The resolution of The House that Jack Built, is specially harsh with himself, given Dillon plays his alter ego in this allegory. Baumbach barely admits having any blame on his disastrous divorce and blames everyone around with a little acknowledge that yes, he was unfaithful ONCE (and tries to justify it, regardless). It is a really sad spectacle, and I am astonished people can’t see it is one of the most misoginistic films in recent memory.
To summarize…
Lars acknowledges he is an asshole and part of the problem
Noah whines he is a victim of laws and abuse by everyone around him (that regardless, consider him a genius).
I watched Richard Jewell last night. It’s pretty square filmmaking, my parents are going to LOVE it. But Hauser is genuinely fantastic. He creates someone so believable that you can’t imagine anyone else doing it. Bates and Rockwell are good, but I’ll be disappointed if Hauser doesn’t get at least a GG mom.
That’s it, I’m jumping on Sandler wagon. he’s lining up nominations and that NBR win and could be SAG thing too.
It all kinda depends how Uncut Gems does in the coming phases. I don’t think it’s impossible for it to get into BP, although it won’t be easy.
I think that Sandler as a sole above the line nominee is likelier but who knows? At this point, critical support cannot be ignored and the movie sounds much more accessible than Hawke’s. I don’t expect him to make BAFTA but breaking into GG Drama line up would be a big boon.
I haven’t seen Uncut Gems, but if Good Time is any indication, I wouldn’t really call it accessible. It might be hella amazing though.
If I had a ballot, not my predictions. Of what I’ve seen (sorry 1917, Little Women, Bombshell, Richard Jewell and Uncut Gems):
Picture – Drama
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
The King
The Two Popes
Picture – Comedy
Booksmart
JoJo Rabbit
Knives Out
The Peanut Butter Falcon
Rocketman
Actress – Drama
Gabriela Cartol – The Chambermaid
Julianne Moore – Gloria Bell
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Florence Pugh – Midsommar
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Actress – Comedy
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Jillian Bell – Brittany Runs a Marathon
Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go Bernadette
Ana de Armas – Knives Out
Dakota Johnson – The Peanut Butter Falcon
Actor – Drama
Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Jonathan Price – The Two Popes
Brad Pitt – Ad Astra
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
(I don’t know how to cut one – but also Kelvin Harrison, Jr. – Luce)
Actor – Comedy
Daniel Craig – Knives Out
Bryan Cranston – The Upside
Roman Griffin Davis – JoJo Rabbit
Taron Egerton – Rocketman
Shia LeBeouf – The Peanut Butter Falcon
Supporting Actress
Diana Lin – The Farewell
Scarlett Johansson – JoJo Rabbit
Thomasin McKenzie – JoJo Rabbit
Jo Yeo-Jeong – Parasite
Zhuzhen Zhou – The Farewell
Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Lucas Hedges – Honey Boy
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
Song Kang-Ho – Parasite
Tracy Letts – Ford v. Ferrari
Director
Pedro Almodovar – Pain and Glory
Marielle Heller – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
Fernando Meirelles – The Two Popes
Lulu Wang – The Farewell
Screenplay
Booksmart
The Farewell
Pain and Glory
Parasite
The Two Popes
Score
After the Wedding
Joker
Pain and Glory
Parasite
The Two Popes
Picture – Drama
A Hidden Life
The Souvenir
Midsommar
Her Smell
Ad Astra
Picture – Comedy or Musical
Little Joe
Bait
The Lighthouse
In Fabric
Booksmart
Director
Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life)
Céline Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Hu Bo (An Elephant Sitting Still)
Joanna Hogg (The Souvenir)
Bi Gan (Long Day’s Journey into Night)
Screenplay
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
An Elephant Sitting Still
The Souvenir
A Hidden Life
Parasite
Actress – Drama
Honor Swinton Byrne (The Souvenir)
Noémie Merlant (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell)
Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life)
Adèle Haenel (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Lupita Nyong’o (Us) misses by a split hair
Actress – Comedy or Musical
Emily Beecham (Little Joe)
Emma Thompson (Late Night)
Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart)
Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
Ana de Armas (Knives Out)
Actor – Drama
Tom Mercier (Synonyms)
August Diehl (A Hidden Life)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory)
Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
Actor – Comedy or Musical
Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse)
Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)
Edward Rowe (Bait)
Carloto Cotta (Diamantino)
Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)
Supporting Actor
Tom Burke (The Souvenir)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Asier Etxeandia (Pain & Glory)
Song Kang-ho (Parasite)
Yuchang Peng (An Elephant Sitting Still)
Supporting Actress
Agyness Deyn (Her Smell)
Luàna Bajrami (Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Fatma Mohamed (In Fabric)
Jo Yeo-jeong (Parasite)
Uvin Wang (An Elephant Sitting Still)
Score
Parasite
High Life
The Lighthouse
A Hidden Life
Diego Maradona
Bummed I haven’t seen In Fabric or A Hidden Life yet.
Always look forward to your choices!
Just curious: have you seen The Chambermaid yet?
I’m afraid I haven’t and I’ve actually not even heard about it that much. But your championing of it has definitely made me more interested
I’ll be curious what you think. It’s…”non-traditional”, narratively speaking. So, not sure of the right person to recommend it to. But with your eclectic love of many different types of films, I was curious what you’d think. I really liked it when I watched it. Still not at the very top of my list, but it’s only grown on me since and is a film I think (a lot) about two months later. I really do love it.
Damn, you guys all have seen many more films! I was more into series (The Americans, Minthunter, Fleabag, Chernobyl etc.), to be true… And regarding the films that I´ve actually seen, there were many disappointments and few films I regard as truly great and Award-worthy. Those are:
Once upon a time … in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Irishman
Parasite
I will need to see more… especially looking forward to see “Little Women” and “The Farewell”.
Very nice picks. Booksmart. Jillian Bell. Florence Pugh for Midsommar.
Something I’ve been thinking about: which films grew on you as time went by or upon 2nd screening? Which ones faded the further you got from watching it?
For me: The Farewell and Pain and Glory grew on me. I suppose The Irishman and Ad Astra have faded since I initially saw them.
Always wonder how that plays for some films in a long season.
Better in estimation: The Souvenir, Little Joe, Midsommar, Bait
Faded in estimation: Ad Astra, The Lighthouse, High Life, The Image Book, Birds of Passage
But I feel like in particular the latter situation demands more time in order for films to truly drop in estimation, these are simply films I absolutely loved when I watched them and now I think they’re moreso worthy of places in my top 25 of the year rather than my top 10 of the year
The Souvenir still has no German release date… it´s a shame! I´m really getting pissed about that…
That sucks. Have you considered just caving and getting it on DVD?
Yes, that´s an option, but I think I´ll wait a couple of months and see if it finally gets a distributor.
Grew on me: Waves(I love it now), Midsommar, Joker, Luce
Faded: The Irishman, OUATIH, The Farewell, Knives Out
Grew: Pain and Glory, A Hidden Life (Malick always does), The Irishman, Atlantics
Faded: Ad Astra, The Two Popes, Joker, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Grew: Pain and Glory, The Souvenir, Waves, Uncut Gems, Atlantics (and I always loved Parasite and Portrait of a Lady on Fire)
Faded: The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Marriage Story, Ad Astra, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Farewell
I’ve felt that Jojo Rabbit and Joker are overpraised (if films with high-50s on MC can be “overpraised”) since first screening them at TIFF.
Always interesting on how it’s half been the same for me on my list and half completely the opposite. Subjective, indeed – hence fun.
I really do need to see Portrait of a Lady
a bit difficult to pick which movie will get the most noms. I’m guessing one of the three that will add acting noms to the director / movie / screenplay triple combo. So, one of these three: The Irishman, Once Upon a Time and Marriage Story
I am here to stan for the following…
Supporting Actor
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Jonathan Majors, The Last Black Man In San Francisco
Supporting Actress
Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell
Julia Butters, Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood
Actor (Drama)
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra
Actress (Drama)
Florence Pugh, Midsommar
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
HFPA, vote accordingly.
That fifth slot for Drama actress is super tough here, but I think Erivo can make it in. They enjoy that type of “star making” role. And while Erivo is already known as a force in the theatre world, Harriet is introducing her to wide film audiences in a huge way. I don’t think she will repeat at the Oscars (where Awkwafina or Lupita will likely replace her), but this is definitely a performance the Globes would go for.
Sandler needs to be added to Drama
To lose? Great plan
Hahaha
weird, I don’t see anything to fill out, is there a link or should a form appear on the page? Tried 2 different browsers
Form is on this page. Works fine for me on Chrome.
I was opening in Chrome too. turned out that it was giving me a warning that I’m loading unsafe scripts. Now I see it.
It doesn’t work for me either.
Too much talent and not enough slots. But let’s not pretend that we all don’t know that Cats will dominate, leading all contenders with a record-breaking 9 nominations. Fill out your ballots accordingly. Meow! Meow!
I predicted it for Comedy/Musical…you just know the Globes won’t be able to resist themselves. Hooper even rushed to finish things in order to have a big HFPA screening. And thus, quality stuff like Booksmart and Dolemite will be left off in favor of one of the stupidest musicals ever. sigh.
Is Meryl Streep confirmed as supporting? I want to predict her in lead but thought I’d check I’m not throwing away a nomination (for Laundromat).
The Laundromat is HORRIBLE.
Audience and critics hated it
Yeah but there’s quite a bit of intel saying hfpa members liked it and comedy actress is kinda short on contenders. I have seen it and absolutely agree it is bad.
I should say short on contenders in the contenders I can see globe voters going for way – there are plenty of good female comedy roles this year, I just don’t think hfpa members will go for most of them.
Apparently HFPA liked everything this year lmao
You may laugh but these things do often turn out last year several people were saying all the hfpa members they were talking to loved Bohemian Rhapsody and everyone laughed it off
I liked it, a lot
Tom O’Neil said that the HFPA didn’t hate it as much as everyone else…Just sayin’… I’m still not predicting it.
Streep could do a movie where she does nothing but sit on a toilet writhing in pain from a stomach virus and Tom O’Neill would predict a nomination (I’d imagine one too for the foley guy)
Not entirely unreasonably. They do love Meryl.
Ehhh since I don’t know actual placements I will play it safe and not predict her…
Uncut Gems has been reclassified as Drama, just thought I let everyone know.
Appropriate.