“The Irishman” leads all films this year with 14 nominations including Best Picture, Robert De Niro for Best Actor, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for Best Supporting Actor, Martin Scorsese for Best Director, Best Acting Ensemble, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Editing, Best Costume Design, Best Hair and Makeup, Best Visual Effects, and Best Score.
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” impressed with 12 nominations, followed by “Little Women” with nine, “1917” and “Marriage Story” with eight, and “Jojo Rabbit,” “Joker,” and “Parasite” with seven each.
Several actors received multiple nominations across both the film and television fields. Laura Dern could take home two trophies for her work in “Big Little Lies” and “Marriage Story,” while Scarlett Johansson received nominations for her roles in both “Jojo Rabbit” and “Marriage Story.” Newcomer Asante Blackk also received two nominations for his roles in “This Is Us” and “When They See Us.”
Many of this year’s director nominees pulled double duty, and are nominated for their screenplays as well, including Noah Baumbach for “Marriage Story,” Greta Gerwig for “Little Women,” Bong Joon Ho for “Parasite,” and Quentin Tarantino for “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.”
Netflix has earned 61 nominations across their series and films. HBO received 33 nominations, followed by Amazon with 14, and NBC with 12. Topping the list of nominated series is “When They See Us” (Netflix) with six, followed by “This Is Us” (NBC) and “Schitt’s Creek” (Pop) with five each. Several programs received a total of 4 nominations including “Barry” (HBO), “Chernobyl” (HBO), “Fleabag” (Amazon), “Fosse/Verdon” (FX), “Game of Thrones” (HBO), “The Crown” (Netflix), “The Good Fight” (CBS All Access), “Unbelievable” (Netflix), and “Watchmen” (HBO).
BEST PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Parasite
Uncut Gems
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro – The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy – Dolemite Is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Renée Zellweger – Judy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Margot Robbie – Bombshell
Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Julia Butters – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Roman Griffin Davis – Jojo Rabbit
Noah Jupe – Honey Boy
Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit
Shahadi Wright Joseph – Us
Archie Yates – Jojo Rabbit
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Bombshell
The Irishman
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Parasite
BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
Greta Gerwig – Little Women
Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
Sam Mendes – 1917
Josh Safdie and Benny Safdie – Uncut Gems
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
Rian Johnson – Knives Out
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won – Parasite
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Lulu Wang – The Farewell
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig – Little Women
Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony McCarten – The Two Popes
Todd Phillips & Scott Silver – Joker
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
Steven Zaillian – The Irishman
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke – The Lighthouse
Roger Deakins – 1917
Phedon Papamichael – Ford v Ferrari
Rodrigo Prieto – The Irishman
Robert Richardson – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Lawrence Sher – Joker
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran – Joker
Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales – 1917
Jess Gonchor, Claire Kaufman – Little Women
Lee Ha Jun – Parasite
Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Bob Shaw, Regina Graves – The Irishman
Donal Woods, Gina Cromwell – Downton Abbey
BEST EDITING
Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie – Uncut Gems
Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker – Ford v Ferrari
Yang Jinmo – Parasite
Fred Raskin – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Thelma Schoonmaker – The Irishman
Lee Smith – 1917
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter – Dolemite Is My Name
Julian Day – Rocketman
Jacqueline Durran – Little Women
Arianne Phillips – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson – The Irishman
Anna Robbins – Downton Abbey
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Bombshell
Dolemite Is My Name
The Irishman
Joker
Judy
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Rocketman
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Ad Astra
The Aeronauts
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
The Lion King
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Abominable
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
BEST ACTION MOVIE
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Spider-Man: Far From Home
BEST COMEDY
Booksmart
Dolemite Is My Name
The Farewell
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE
Ad Astra
Avengers: Endgame
Midsommar
Us
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Atlantics
Les Misérables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
BEST SONG
Glasgow (No Place Like Home) – Wild Rose
(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again – Rocketman
I’m Standing With You – Breakthrough
Into the Unknown – Frozen II
Speechless – Aladdin
Spirit – The Lion King
Stand Up – Harriet
BEST SCORE
Michael Abels – Us
Alexandre Desplat – Little Women
Hildur Guðnadóttir – Joker
Randy Newman – Marriage Story
Thomas Newman – 1917
Robbie Robertson – The Irishman
NOMINEES BY FILM FOR THE 25TH ANNUAL CRITICS’ CHOICE AWARDS
1917 – 8
Best Picture
Best Director – Sam Mendes
Best Cinematography – Roger Deakins
Best Production Design – Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
Best Editing – Lee Smith
Best Visual Effects
Best Action Movie
Best Score – Thomas Newman
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD – 2
Best Supporting Actor – Tom Hanks
Best Adapted Screenplay – Noah Harpster and Micah Fitzerman-Blue
ABOMINABLE – 1
Best Animated Feature
AD ASTRA – 2
Best Visual Effects
Best Sci-Fi or Horror Movie
ALADDIN – 1
Best Song – Speechless
ATLANTICS – 1
Best Foreign Language Film
AVENGERS: ENDGAME – 3
Best Visual Effects
Best Action Movie
Best Sci-Fi or Horror Movie
BOMBSHELL – 4
Best Actress – Charlize Theron
Best Supporting Actress – Margot Robbie
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Hair and Makeup
BOOKSMART – 1
Best Comedy
BREAKTHROUGH – 1
Best Song – I’m Standing With You
DOLEMITE IS MY NAME – 4
Best Actor – Eddie Murphy
Best Costume Design – Ruth E. Carter
Best Comedy
Best Hair and Makeup
DOWNTON ABBEY – 2
Best Production Design – Donal Woods, Gina Cromwell
Best Costume Design – Anna Robbins
FORD V FERRARI – 5
Best Picture
Best Cinematography – Phedon Papamichael
Best Editing – Andrew Buckand, Michael McCusker
Best Visual Effects
Best Action Movie
FROZEN II – 2
Best Animated Feature
Best Song – Into the Unknown
HARRIET – 2
Best Actress – Cynthia Erivo
Best Song – Stand Up
HONEY BOY – 1
Best Young Actor/Actress – Noah Jupe
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD – 1
Best Animated Feature
HUSTLERS – 1
Best Supporting Actress – Jennifer Lopez
I LOST MY BODY – 1
Best Animated Feature
JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3 – PARABELLUM – 1
Best Action Movie
JOJO RABBIT – 7
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actress – Scarlett Johansson
Best Young Actor/Actress – Roman Griffin Davis
Best Young Actor/Actress – Thomasin McKenzie
Best Young Actor/Actress – Archie Yates
Best Adapted Screenplay – Taika Waititi
Best Comedy
JOKER – 7
Best Picture
Best Actor – Joaquin Phoenix
Best Adapted Screenplay – Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Best Cinematography – Lawrence Sher
Best Production Design – Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran
Best Hair and Makeup
Best Score – Hildur Guðnadóttir
JUDY – 2
Best Actress – Renée Zellweger
Best Hair and Makeup
KNIVES OUT – 3
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Original Screenplay – Rian Johnson
Best Comedy
LES MISÉRABLES – 1
Best Foreign Language Film
LITTLE WOMEN – 9
Best Picture
Best Actress – Saoirse Ronan
Best Supporting Actress – Florence Pugh
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Director – Greta Gerwig
Best Adapted Screenplay – Greta Gerwig
Best Production Design – Jess Gonchor, Claire Kaufman
Best Costume Design – Jacqueline Durran
Best Score – Alexandre Desplat
MARRIAGE STORY – 8
Best Picture
Best Actor – Adam Driver
Best Actress – Scarlett Johansson
Best Supporting Actress – Laura Dern
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Director – Noah Baumbach
Best Original Screenplay – Noah Baumbach
Best Score – Randy Newman
MIDSOMMER – 1
Best Sci-Fi or Horror Movie
MISSING LINK – 1
Best Animated Feature
ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD – 12
Best Picture
Best Actor – Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Supporting Actor – Brad Pitt
Best Young Actor/Actress – Julia Butters
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Director – Quentin Tarantino
Best Original Screenplay – Quentin Tarantino
Best Cinematography – Robert Richardson
Best Production Design – Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
Best Editing – Fred Raskin
Best Costume Design – Arianne Phillips
Best Hair and Makeup
PAIN AND GLORY – 2
Best Actor – Antonio Banderas
Best Foreign Language Film
PARASITE – 7
Best Picture
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Director – Bong Joon Ho
Best Original Screenplay – Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won
Best Production Design – Lee Ha Jun
Best Editing – Yang Jinmo
Best Foreign Language Film
PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE – 1
Best Foreign Language Film
ROCKETMAN – 3
Best Hair and Makeup
Best Song – (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again
Best Costume Design – Julian Day
SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME – 1
Best Action Movie
THE AERONAUTS – 1
Best Visual Effects
THE FAREWELL – 4
Best Actress – Awkwafina
Best Supporting Actress – Zhao Shuzhen
Best Comedy
Best Original Screenplay – Lulu Wang
THE IRISHMAN – 14
Best Picture
Best Actor – Robert De Niro
Best Supporting Actor – Al Pacino
Best Supporting Actor – Joe Pesci
Best Director – Martin Scorsese
Best Acting Ensemble
Best Adapted Screenplay – Steven Zaillian
Best Cinematography – Rodrigo Prieto
Best Production Design – Bob Shaw, Regina Graves
Best Editing – Thelma Schoonmaker
Best Costume Design – Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson
Best Hair and Makeup
Best Visual Effects
Best Score – Robbie Robertson
THE LIGHTHOUSE – 2
Best Supporting Actor – Willem Dafoe
Best Cinematography – Jarin Blaschke
THE LION KING – 2
Best Visual Effects
Best Song – Spirit
THE TWO POPES – 2
Best Supporting Actor – Anthony Hopkins
Best Adapted Screenplay – Anthony McCarten
TOY STORY 4 – 1
Best Animated Feature
UNCUT GEMS – 4
Best Picture
Best Actor – Adam Sandler
Best Director – Josh Safdie, Benny Safdie
Best Editing – Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie
US – 4
Best Actress – Lupita Nyong’o
Best Young Actor/Actress – Shahadi Wright Joseph
Best Sci-Fi or Horror Movie
Best Score – Michael Abels
WILD ROSE – 1
Best Song – Glasgow (No Place Like Home)
In other somewhat interesting news, did people catch that the St. Louis critics gave Joker a “Worst Film” nomination, but also nominations for Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay?
Biggest misses in major categories (especially given 5+ slots in multiple categories):
PICTURE: The Farewell, Knives Out
DIRECTOR: None (closest would be Mangold, Waititi, Phillips)
ACTOR: None (closest would be Pryce, Bale, Egerton)
ACTRESS: Woodard and Place
SUPPORTING ACTOR: None (closest would be Song, Snipes, Rockwell)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Bates and Kidman (and Russell, in my wildest dreams)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory, Booksmart
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: None
FILM EDITING: Marriage Story
So let me get this straight just cos Roma came so close to winning best picture last year bankrolled by Netflix have to be said NOT the public, championed by the elites and organisations and not common sense ( namely big screen movies that are always supposed to dominate awards season NOT netflix).
To be clear the ONLY reason the Irishman doing so well is cos the academy are falling for their appeal to the individual campaigners of personnel who Netflix paid huge amounts to recruit for purely marketing purposes.
If Scorsese thinks it was purely and largely his clout not the ability of Netflix to manipulate the award a season conversation dishonestly using politics of awards season to its advantage ( cos let’s face it that is all Netflix have now) for record the ONLY reason number of people as fact subscribe to it is that pay tv companies with their bells and whistles some has be said NOT all have generous discount offers for Netflix.
That the Irishman dominated nominations by 14 nominations is proof that awards season is surrendering to other market forces NOT to be clear that it easily justifiably most talked bout, challenging dramatic best picture of the year.
Netflix continues to rip off customers compared to other increasingly better streaming services where has be said the product and quality of series on streaming is more original and far more ambitious overall across few series or feature movies than Netflix.
Has anyone bothered to question eha t this out of blue that ONLY started last year secret pact is between all awards organisations and Netflix? Last year lot of you were not sold on Netflix.
Once again the Irishman should have primarily opened on big screen denying the public in mostvtrqditiobal long standing form of cinema namely the ONE that rightfully dominated several decades every decade as academy synonymous with fukin big screen on big screen motion picture movies.
So tell me regardless how” good ” a ‘ movie is on the small screen how the fuk does approx 100,000 subscribers in biggest states of United States translate into representing 10 of millions of people weekly who go into cineplexes why? Cos they feel they have input and conversation I in awards season . It always easy take out the silent majority awards season isn’t it? Just get more more insular elitists cut out and undermine as seems the case they are with Jokers chances, 1917, etc.
Make no mistake Netflix is out to manipulate dishonestly awards season it not redefining awards season and the traditionalists should not be confused amongst membership of globes or even broadcast film critics the obvious difference between a film most people can access and experience vs exclusive rip off ‘ members only ‘ club.
The arguments of technology digital playgrounds changing motion picture game is diluting the simple fact black and white let wake ourselves up to respect of Oscars clearly cut campaign to potentially give up on big screen motion picture film’s become more isolated take Netflix as easy way out justify escaping public scrutiny that what this is bout nothing more nothing less.
I sick tired if a brilliant film being embraced over far more compelling admirable cinematic achievermentz i not only one.
I underestimated power of politics of awards season but clear my I becoming wrong look like for now Irishman is in lead comfortably but debate I encourage u all rage about is Irishman clearly truly comfortably best film of year most game changing most innovative? Forget it Netflix feature does it really stack yo with far superior film’s such as Ford vs Ferrari, Joker, Jojo rabbit, 1917?
So if Scorsese thinks cos his influence he been caught out bring naive if he under r estimates power of politics over substance if Irishman wins it proof it clear to me by the year with Netflix undetermined to stay yearly if u have a product of quality of past over nominations or God father insert clevhed style quality film you can bend pple wills with u product make no mistake Netflix will denigrate true value of Irishman to their marketable pulling power and considering it brilliant but NOT great feature ( only film if it on big screen sorry) and so predictably here we are.
A handful of societal commentary based film’s the left’s choice with the lazy way out excuse to snub number of higher quality challenging film’s like joker, 1917, Ford vs Ferrari snubbed unbelievable that.
As for Scorsese if he succeeded it does not guarantee others of his age exoerien e or his profile come on board immediately. For I under impression Scorsese didn’t even consider screening film primarily on cinemas shows to me considerable selfishness and if Netflix fairdingkom projecting their feature as it deserves to on big screen (not just the gesturing with hand out begging for awards season attention)thrn Irishman wwould been screening at least at same time started screening on Netflix.
Do we even know public contract arrangements Netflix have with Scorsese company? Do we even know how many rights film studio has as to how much say thr y have bout there hundred million dollar budget film they pay get produced not Netflix who clearly paid promote market film but it Scorsese does hard yards his film company but does he even know how much of film studio rights to distribute in Cineplex with whatever dirty dealing of deception Netflix has done seize control of products ?
There reason why Spielberg etc won’t go near Netflix make no mistake he not alone his generation far from it pushing against Netflix deceitful politics marketing tactics.
You been had Scorsese I bet u don’t know how much of u rights tied to Netflix that studio u 3ork for sold out yo let Netflix control timing of very limited season screening of Irishman.
Whole thing stinks and I no doubt only marginally less pple last year disagree with me once again the bfca have got it wrong sold themselves out before our very eyes to corporations organisations that are not for affordable public widespread access
If Jonathan Pryce misses at the Globes too, I’d say that’s it for his campaign
I agree though he is expected to make it there (10 slots, apparently the HFPA loved the film). What could be his make or break moment is SAG on Wednesday though.
No surprise on the Oscar Predictions Awards nominations.
These nominations more or less confirm this year’s Oscar contenders but it’s nice anyway seeing what I’d rank as one of the finest American mainstream films of the last few years, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, leading them all with Quentin Tarantino’s masterful Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood and Noah Baumbach’s extraordinary Marriage Story not far behind.
It’s a shame there are not many creative decisions / surprises to be found on these noms, like I think it’s insane Wild Rose gets recognized for the beautiful song towards the end but not for Jessie Buckley’s performance, a tour de force of a performance really in serious need of major awards attention, which ends up being left out even with the lead acting categories up to 7 slots.
In fact, I’m sad to realize my three favorite female performances this year in the lead category, Trine Dyrholm’s masterclass of a performance in Queen Of Hearts (THE PERFORMANCE OF THE YEAR, without a doubt), Jessie Buckley’s explosive turn in Wild Rose and Florence Pugh’s heartbreaking work in Midsommar are about to be left out of all major awards groups. It’s kinda funny to say “oh, this was a relatively weak year in the Best Actress category” when the work is there and not many seem to notice.
I still haven’t given up hope that Buckley will sneak into Best Actress at the Globes and maybe even at Baftas.
Let’s hope so man. In a right world, this is the kind of star-making, awards sweeping performance everyone talks about. Btw, do yourself a favor and watch Queen Of Hearts. Trine Dyrholm gives the kind of performance that haunts you. It’s a hard watch for sure but it’s a fascinating character study with one of the great lead female turns of the last decade. Trust the hype because there’s simply no way to overpraise work of such excellence.
Best picture STLFCA : Little Women
Waves
Long Day’s Journey into Night
The Two Popes
Dolemite is my Name
1917
Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Awesome – thank you for updating us on these! Do you have screenplay and director nominees as well? (Both have good BP stats attached.)
Best supporting actress STLFCA : Florence Pugh – Little Women
Annette Bening – The Report
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson – JoJo Rabbit
Margot Robbie – Bombshell *AND* Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
(Yes, we are recognizing both performances)
Best supporting actor STLFCA : Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
Wesley Snipes – Dolemite is my Name
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Best actor STLFCA : Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is my Name
I think it’s also clear that Bombshell will be this year’s I, Tonya. Will get two acting nominations, one below the line nomination, and that’s it. I’m excited for it, but I had a feeling it’s too crowded in Best Picture for it to secure a spot.
I saw the preview and rolled my eyes.
Haven’t we just had The Loudest Voice covering this story?
The trailer actually looks awesome! I’m talking about the second one, not the one that’s all in the elevator. Charlize’s transformation into Megyn Kelly is unreal.
Ok. The one I saw (as a preview at the movies when I was seeing Knives Out) was quite dull, and it came across as very similar to The Loudest Voice.
Just in nominations for best actress STLFCA :
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women ( Awkwafina and Lupita are missing
Not that the St. Louis critics have much of an impact on the race, but I kinda agree with their picks here in the sense that I do think Zellweger, Theron, Johansson and Ronan are probably in at the Oscars with the 5th slot down to Awkwafina, Nyong’O and Erivo.
I agree with you.
Fresh with the Toronto Film Critics Association Winners, which also has big consensus with the Oscar:
Picture: Parasite
Director: Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Actor: Adam Driver
Actress: Lupita Nyong’O
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
Screenplay: The Irishman
Foreign Language: Parasite
Documentary: American Factory.
Wow – Lupita again! I watched Us and wasn’t a huge fan. Though she is amazing in it.
Observations:
– The Two Popes we now pretty much KNOW is not winning Best Picture (which Sammy, at least, thought was a possibility at some point), since it missed for BP here. (24/24 all-time stat.) Sadly, so did The Farewell. Ya kinda’ dropped the ball there, BFCA… (At least the ladies got nominated in their individual categories.)
– Clearly, Pryce is also not a thing.
– Ford v Ferrari does poorly, so here the BFCA agreed with me, as it tends to do. Sadly, it did get in for picture, so the filler BP nod remains likely.
– No MacKay for actor, with SEVEN slots. And no screenplay nod. Not good for 1917’s Oscar chances… (Parasite also got no acting nominations and, expected though that may be, this is a solid stat – the last 10 BP winners at the Oscars, so all of the preferential ones, had at least one such nomination here, and the stat was pretty strong before that, too.)
– No Jojo Rabbit for directing or ensemble (or editing); could be trouble… (These aren’t exactly critics, as everybody keeps reminding us. Also, all 18 BP winners since the ensemble category was first introduced here were nominated either there or for directing. Usually both, obviously. Green Book got the directing nomination here – but not ensemble or editing, it’s true.)
– No editing nomination for Marriage Story, confirming its serious weakness in that category. Knocks it out of the tie for first in the stats table.
– Incredible how strong Uncut Gems is!
– What’s up with the weird numbers of nominees in various categories?! (5 for original, 6 for adapted, 6 for supporting, 7 for lead, etc.)
The top 21 in the updated stats table (including these and all of the other relevant recent critics’ awards announcements):
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 25 14 (I had switched to this as my unofficial prediction even before these broke the tie with MS; not just because of stats)
Marriage Story 24 13 (BFCA editing is the only thing it’s missed so far; OUATIH has hit EVERYTHING – highly impressive)
The Irishman 22 12 (Satellite BP and BD are its only misses so far)
Parasite 21 11 (no BFCA acting nomination, NBR top 10, San Diego BD)
Jojo Rabbit 18 9 (a lot of stats-relevant directing misses plus one each in picture and editing)
Joker 16 8 (about the same)
1917 15 9 (misses for picture, screenplay and acting)
Little Women 13 6 (most of its misses are for picture, some for director/screenplay/editing)
Uncut Gems 11 7
The Farewell 11 6
Ford v Ferrari 10 6
The Two Popes 9 5
Knives Out 8 5
Pain and Glory 7 4
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 6 3
Hustlers 5 3
Us 4 2
Bombshell 3 2
Dolemite is My Name 3 2
Richard Jewell 3 2
The Lighthouse 3 2
First number is weighted total, second number is straight count.
All legit points, I will say that I would wait a little before judging the snubs of the 1917 gang too harshly, the film just debuted two weeks ago while its competition has been screening for awards voters for months now. I think it may peak later and that could bode well for its script and two actors Oscar-wise. Not saying it will def get nods in those three categories but I think the super late debut may create a situation where they will miss the cut at most precursors but gain enough traction just in time for Oscar voting. Just a vague theory though.
How do you explain Little Women do so well with these Oscar predictors then?
Ensemble cast, known property, and Gerwig.
That doesn’t explain why 1917 did not do well. It has similar issues, but LW has been better received.
Little Women started screening for awards voters a whole month before 1917 did.
What about BFCA?
Probably BFCA, too. Little Women started screening in late October, 1917 started screening in late November.
Feinberg and Jazz, both BFCA voters, were at the first industry screenings of both films and I think the dates were October 23 (Little Women) and November 24 (1917).
But they landed with BFC, just not in screenplay and acting. That was predicted and not snubs.
You got me there. My only potential excuse for those misses is that even sight unseen the film was widely considered / predicted to land nominations in BP + BD so it almost felt like there were slots reserved for the film in those categories in case it turns out to be great as expected but the early raves for the script, MacKay and Chapman were surprising thus voters may not have warmed up to the idea of considering them, as well, when most of them probably already had their faves in those categories by the time 1917 landed. Just thinking out loud here, mostly just gibberish, I admit.
You got me there. My only potential excuse for those misses is that even sight unseen the film was widely considered / predicted to land nominations in BP + BD so it almost felt like there were slots reserved for the film in those categories in case it turns out to be great as expected but the early raves for the script, MacKay and Chapman were surprising thus voters may not have warmed up to the idea of considering them, as well, when most of them probably already had their faves in those categories by the time 1917 landed. Just thinking out loud here, mostly just gibberish, I admit.
Yes, or maybe we could just accept that it is a film driven by its screenplay and acting? I mean, it is what it is. Those are not its strength and that’s the opposite for its competition. I think we have assumed it misses them.
We’ll see. I need more information before I can rule it out. If it misses acting+writing tomorrow at the Globes, too, and gets shut out at SAG on Wednesday, THEN I will be ready to rule it out of top5 consideration. Until then, I remain unsure.
It will probably still miss, but is getting acting at the GG a big deal since they have to categories for lead actor? Screenplay is a big deal and it will most likely miss. But I don’t expect it to get that and it doesn’t need that to win BD. Might even get away with as long as it gets at the Oscar. GG has one category and it’s a big ask for it to get that. The problem is that it’s missing everywhere and BFCA is BIG, I feel.
Wasn’t there some stat about BD (at the Oscars) needing either writing or acting nominations? In which case Mendes is looking highly unlikely for the BD win as well, not just BP. (I know this doesn’t contradict anything you’re saying – just pointing it out.)
By the way, in my case, what convinced me to stop predicting 1917 was the Detroit BP snub. 12/12 stat.
I meant, I don’t expect it to get GG BD because it one category. But it could win BD or even BP if it get screenplay at the Oscars. Yes, that is the stat. The Revenant, Gravity and Life of Pi all won BD either just a screenplay or acting, not both. Titanic and Hamlet won BP without screenplay but did have acting and BD nominations.
I expect it to get into GG BD. Win – probably not, but it’s possible.
I have seen Detroit yet. But it just the consistent patter. It’s not that surprising because it was not predicted to get them. It might still get them, but it’s not predicted to get them.
It’s a 100% stat that a film needs a writing or acting nomination to win best director, unless you count Two Arabian Knights winning best comedy directing at the first Oscars an exception to the rule
Yeah, that’s the one. Came up a few times during the Dunkirk year… 🙂
I think a MacKay GG nod would be big even with 10 Best Actor slots since around 10 of the roughly 12 top contenders are in his category (Drama). The script nod with only 5 script slots is definitely a long shot so if that happens – huge fokkin’ if – then that will be a big deal, as well. But clearly these are all long shots at the moment.
It will help boost its chances, but what it really needs is to win acting to be predicted as a nominee. GG is les of an issue, I fee.
Listen, I hope you’re right about that! 🙂 But it seems quite optimistic, by this point…
It IS, I know, I know.
🙂
Indeed, none of its snubs are, individually, any guarantee it won’t win BP (some of them are full 100% stats, even, but with smallish samples, in the 10-15 years range), but the story they’re telling, taken together, is really, really bad… I’m not entirely ruling it out, of course, simply because the industry hasn’t spoken yet and there’s always that small chance they will decide to take a completely different stance on it.
However, while movies largely snubbed by the critics have won before, they DID all do much better with the BFCA, in terms of key nominations. Every single preferential winner did. Moreover, since 1997, every BP winner has been nominated by the BFCA for either screenplay or acting, either individually or for the ensemble. And in 1997 there weren’t even nominations yet (except for picture), so this is pretty much a 100% stat; only winners were announced.
“the film has just debuted two weeks ago while its competition has been screening for awards voters for months now.”
Million Dollar Baby did better than it at Critics Choice too. And I think the dates situation is comparable (looking at IMDb’s US release dates and the dates of the Critics Choice ceremonies), but I could be wrong. Even if I am, this argument somehow never seems to be a thing, once all is said and done, based on the last few years… 🙂 (Even though it’s always brought up.)
Great work, Claudiu. I finally caught up with The Two Popes after missing it at TIFF, and I think Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor are its most likely Oscar nominations (identical to the BFCA nominations). Somewhat surprised Jojo Rabbit and Ford v Ferrari are so weak, not because I liked them but because I expected them to land with more force.
Thanks!
Yeah, I expected Ford v Ferrari to do a looooot better here too – but am glad it didn’t. Jojo’s underperformance is also interesting… Confirms my pre-precursor notion that it’s almost definitely not winning Best Picture.
I should see The Two Popes when it comes out on Netflix – December 25th.
I know why people don’t like these nominations but at the same time if we did a poll right now with who our fav movies and performances are for the year, we’d come up with the exact same list. So I enjoy them personally every year. It cements who we already think are the front runners, which I like.
I feel like they’re the formal expression of predictions and pundits’ assessment of the race and thus they’re quite valuable in the race
To me they always feel like a somewhat more formal and legit version of Oscar predictions. Not a bad thing to have but at the same time doesn’t seem super important, either.
The use of them is that I feel like if one were to make a prediction model assessing what will win, they would be the most proper way of putting what people generally are predicting into this model.
Yep that sounds right to me.
Fair point.
I know I’m supposed to take these awards as a serious precursor but when they literally nominate anyone with an ounce of buzz it’s ridiculous. Cut your list to 5 nominees in the acting categories, cowards!
At least it’s a year where they can fill seven slots with legit contenders for the acting categories. Some years it’s 2 and then filler.
I can’t remember critics choice have had a more predictable line up than this. They are nothing but an Oscar preview
Thomasin McKenzie is awesome, don’t get me wrong, but it feels like a stretch to include her in the Young Actor/Actress category. She’s 19, everybody else nominated is an actual child.
OK so let’s see what’s up here :
PICTURE – The presumed near-lock Octet is all present + Joker and Uncut Gems. Joker has always looked like a valid contender for the ninth slot, this nod gives it a boost that could help it a little to get closer to getting that slot at the Oscars. Uncut Gems I continue to believe will not be something fellow major precursors (HFPA, PGA, SAG, Bafta) will embrace and if they won’t, neither will the Academy. Also the presumed second-tier is missing : The Two Popes, Richard Jewell, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Bombshell. . Richard Jewell was completely shut out, the other four secured at least two nominations in above the line categories so they are not completely ruled out just yet. Key word being : yet.
DIRECTOR – 7 nominees … LOL. Status quo I believe is unchanged : Scorsese, Tarantino, Mendes, Bong remain close to near-lock status with the fifth slot probably down to Baumbach and Gerwig. Again, I could be severely underestimating Uncut Gems across the board, but I still don’t see it happening in BP / BD at the Oscars. If anything this lineup suggests then it is the semi-confirmation that while Jojo Rabbit is absolutely a contender for nominations in several above the line categories, it may not be considered all that seriously in BD not just because of the reviews but also because Waititi is getting a nod for writing already. Mangold would have been a nice surprise but at the end of the day, him missing is not a surprise, he wasn’t expected to show up here.
LEAD ACTRESS – Low-key heartbroken that even with 7 slots there was no room for Alfre Woodard. This septet is who I consider to be the top7 contenders in Best Actress with Woodard at #8 now. BFCA didn’t do much for us here, they just nominated the seven most likely contenders without narrowing it down to five. If anything, it just confirms that late entries Ronan and Theron are indeed in strong consideration in this category in spite of their very late arrival compared to their competition.
LEAD ACTOR – Again, 7 slots. Ugh. And just like in Best Actress, even with 7 slots they couldn’t make room for the long overdue veteran here, either. Granted I’ve never believed Pryce is as close to the top5 in Best Actor as many seem to be convinced that he is, it pisses me off that even with 7 slots he was snubbed. For what it’s worth this septet is the presumed quintet + Murphy and Sandler. Unless someone emerges in a big way next week with nominations from the HFPA and also SAG, it will be probably the presumed quintet at the Oscars. Ones who could stull surprise ? One from the Egerton-Bale-Davis-Hauser-MacKay quintet. It doesn’t look too good for them at the moment but then again, a Critics Choice snub shouldn’t be the end of the road for any contender.
SUPPORTING ACTOR – The presumed quintet is present + Dafoe who really needed the boost at this point. Long overdue veterans Alda and Lithgow may not come close to this category this year after all although a youngster or two (LaBeouf / Chalamet ?) may still surprise. For now I’m guessing the presumed quintet is safe. Ish.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Shocker they managed to say no to a 7th player here, good job BFCA, good job, remember : baby steps ! Again, the presumed quintet is here + Shuzhen. I think for Shuzhen to make it at the Oscars, The Farewell would need a BP nod. Other than that, the statuos quo remains : Dern, Robbie, Lopez, Johansson, Pugh.
SCREENPLAY – That could be Original lineup at the Oscars, too. Take out Joker from Adapted, and that could be the five in that category.
Down voter is welcome to share a counter argument. I can’t do much with passive-aggressive, anonymous down votes but I am more than happy to have a discussion about any of the categories. I LOVE a good discussion.
Ok but this doesn’t tell me an ything except statistics. I want to know why Little Women is striking a chord w viewers and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is being left out? I thought the divisive polarized American public would have A need for a movie about a guy who spread kindness.
Bombshell I think is released two late in the year but I could see Robbie getting in there as a result of having a good yr wit once upon a time in hollywood
I can easily see the Irishman getting all of those same applicable nominations at the Oscars. Giving it a whopping 13 nods.
I´d say everything between 10 and 13 looks plausible for it. Might easily top the list. But might easily not win in the end either… 😉
No “The Dirt” by Mötley Crüe for the movie The Dirt? Haha, just kidding! Love the Crüe, and it’s a great song, but way too raunchy for Hollywood award shows.
Lol–that was my first watch of the summer. 🙂 Love the Crue. They are snubbing our state next year, but I could still see them in Pittsburgh if I wanted to.
They’re snubbing my state too. I may try to go see them in Atlanta or Chicago.
Chicago is very nice. We visited there two years ago and saw museums and Navy Pier.
Although so far The Irishman looks the strongest, I can’t shake the feeling that it won’t win Oscar BP & BD at the end. And there seems like an inevitability for Parasite to win.
Early frontrunners rarely win. Especially ones with unreported Box Office. It CAN happen but it won’t be as easy as many think it would be.
Yeah, and somehow OUATIH managed to get themselves go slightly under the radar. It might be QT’s year after all.
The BP race is still wide open. Not for long though. The presumed top6 at the moment is The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, Parasite, Marriage Story and Little Women and there are just 5 slots in the two arguably most crucial precursor categories this year : director (GG) and ensemble (SAG). So next week the ones of those six films that miss the cut in either of those categories or even both, could find themselves outside the top5 consideration. Doesn’t mean the film(s) in question won’t be top5, it just means perception-wise it won’t necessarily be seen as one for the time being.
A film not nominated for SAG ensemble has won BP two years in a row already… Do we still care that much about SAG?
We do. Even more so this year than before due to the increased influence of SAG this season, after all it will be the only major guild to announce its nominees in time to influence Oscar voters.
I never do bc theoretically a great movie can be made without a great enslemble like la la land or amadeus
Little Women can’t be that good, can it? Its just a cut and dry adaptation. Does it do anything that innovative or original beyond the source material?
If you’re going to cite fantastic reviews, remember First Man got raves last year. Farewell and us got great reviews earlier thi s yr
As a voter id want to know if it does anything innovative. Otherwise it’s just pride and prejudice or Anna Karenina: mostly good for technical awards
The structure is supposedly very different from the book
I think word on the new Little Women adaptation is exactly that : that Gerwig does something innovative and original with the source material that is well-known by many.
I still don’t think it will come close to winning BP / BD, but I do think it will have the nominations in both thus will be a top5 player (in 5th place).
I also think it could easily win in Adapted and maybe even in Lead Actress. Ronan could be underestimated here especially if her main competition turns out to be a couple of previous Oscar winners (Zellweger and Theron) who unlike Ronan, are not expected to be in BP nominated films this season. Meanwhile Ronan could be an Oscar-less 4-time nominee in a BP contender.
I think there are two early favourites and Hollywood is the one I think is more likely winner. Parasite could surprise but I don’t really see that happening, to be honest. Little Women is the big unknown for me. It could be the late spoiler. It looks close for Adapted and we know BP tends to go with screenplay.
So we’re predicting the same film again. 🙂
I don’t think he will win bd bc Scorsese’s already won and while he is a great director, its not like there’s a dearth of talent. Last year, it didn’t feel like a guy who directed a superhero film, Adam mckay, Peter Farrelly or Spike Lee really deserved a best director statue in runaway fashion.
Lee’s film was good for Spike Lee but it wasn’t head and shoulders above the rest of his filmography or the other black themed films that came out last year.
Adam McKay is still a comedy writer who’s finding his footing. A few little gimmicks like fake ending the movie midway through doesn’t make a your de force.
Milos Y perhaps
This is exactly why I can’t really take this group seriously because they have 6-7 slots instead of 5 and every year they have these dubious ties in major categories and then turn around and brag about how “we predicted ALL five nominees in the acting categories last year” and “we predicted the best supporting actor winner for the last 5 years!” and I’m just standing here thinking, “yeah bish but from a numbers standpoint it means squat when you have more slots and sometimes even more winners per category than what we have at the Oscars, of course you have a much better chance to get ALL five right when you have 6-7 slots”.
It also doesn’t help that 95% of their lineup is basically the top6-7 on Goldderby in every damn category. I have an issue with this organisation because it doesn’t seem to have an identity, it doesn’t seem to know or care to know what they “love” they are just obsessed with attempting to figure out what Oscar voters may vote for so they can vote for the same and then have bragging rights about the overlap.
Having said that, this is a televised award so clearly they do have some clout. Not nearly as much as they think they do, but they do have SOME influence here.
Yeah I mean say what you will about the Globes (and I could say a lot) at least they know what they are and aren’t afraid to just do what they want. But yeah in picture critics choice do generally only miss one film so from a prognostication perspective unfortunately we can’t laugh them off entirely, though they don’t actually help us much because, as you say, they generally just pick the gold derby top films.
Exactly we make fun of the HFPA because they can be ridiculous (The Tourist ? Nine ? BURLESQUE ???) but at least they own their shit.
you forgot last year’s drama winner
Thanks for reminding us jerk! Haha.
well I’m all about details hahaha
LOL you two.
I did. Or at least I’m trying to.
I remember someone making the jokes a couple of years ago “If you want to predict critics choice just predict the Oscars badly”… But still they do have the best overlap with the Oscars of anything we’ve seen so far so those like the two popes doing badly here should be a bitter worried.
I really wouldn’t count out Song Kang Ho, let alone for a nom. His momentum keeps building slowly, especially since the film didn’t stop gaining steam.
Wow! Joker not only got in for Joaquin Phoenix, but it made it into the lineup for Picture and Adapted Screenplay. That’s huge. Also, very interesting how they put in Anthony Hopkins but not Jonathan Pryce. I know some in the comment section thought Pryce could win, but that ain’t happening. After this snub, it would take some Divine Intervention for him to have any shot at winning. When was the last time an actor/actress was snubbed at Critics Choice and came back to win?
it would be huge for Joker if it wasn’t this joke of critics group.
If we think about them as Oscar prognosticators rather than an actual awards body, this bodes fairly well for Joker. Their track record isn’t terrible at all.
it’s just that they nominate too many per category which is why they are more right than other groups. hey, didn’t we nominate so and so? Even as Top 8? he/she made it, we win. 🙂
Of course, but their BP is still a top 10 and Joker made it, while e.g. Richard Jewell didn’t. It’s your pony, be happy! 😀
I’m happy but I’m also cautious. Don’t want to get overly excited.
christoph waltz basterds
Do you mean in Django?
ah yes, the 2nd one
Oh forgot about that one. But still it almost never happens.
14 nominations for The Irishman ! The most overpraised movie of the decade and these sheep drink Scorsese ‘s Kool-Aid . The only really great thing in the movie is Joe Pesci . Maybe they should have g given the slow motion wedding scene a special award.
Best Supp Actor: Song Kang-ho
No, he won for supporting, Pesci is runner-up!
I’m drunk lol
LAFCA?
Yep
Runner up Supp Actor: Pesci
FAAAAAAAAAANTAAAASTIC!
Song Kang-ho won
Yes, but he is not in the conversation. LAFCA is crucial for Oscar winners.
he’s the runner up 🙂
Oh yes. But that it bodes well for Pesci since he is the one competing for the Oscar. The Oscar winner is almost always in LAFCA top two.
We could have the 3Ds (Driver, De Niro and DI Caprio) nominated in lead actor and the 3Ps (Pesci, Pitt and Pacino) in supporting actor. What a coincidence that would be.
and 2 Adams.
GD is down…too many people
So, “Richard Jewell” had zero nominations, and “The Two Popes”, “Bombshell” and “The Farewell” underperformed. “Ford Vs Ferrari” scored a key nomination in picture, as well as “Joker”. We have seen a huge surge of “Uncut Gems”. What this all means to the Oscar race?
Not much unless the guilds / HFPA back them up.
Not too many surprises but absolutely thrilled to see Willem Dafoe get nominated, as well as Anthony Hopkins and the ladies from Little Women and The Farewell.
Wait… Two Popes script Adapted or Original?
Adapted
Thought they changed to Original but I might be wrong.
I thought it was adapted.
Pain and Glory, the Farewell and the 2 Popes are much better movies than Joker and the Jo jo Rabitt.
As expected, 1917 missed screenplay AND acting. I can understand the latter, but missing out on screenplay means it’s not a top/three film. Best to accept that now.
wait, they already made a sequel to 1917? 😉
I think it was about that forgotten year that historians failed to add to WW1.
I’m refering to your typo. 🙂
Me too. I added an extra year to WW1, didn’t you notice?
Dang, you beat me in my own game! 🙂
Still I think it’s early December and we shouldn’t remove anything from the discussion quite yet
If next week it misses out on those categories at GG and also receives zero love from SAG then it fails to surprise at the Oscars in those departments, then I definitely agree it won’t be top2-3. But in the meantime it is still to early to tell, I think, especially since it started screening super late compared to its competition that has been screening for all awards voters for months now.
Agreed. I don’t think it’s dead for the BP win, but it’s looking very unlikely.
BFCA are Oscar predictors and they didn’t think it should be nominated for screenplay. If it can miss there, it doesn’t look good elsewhere.
They pulled a emmys with the stock pile nominees. Great to see Parasite again. Hopefully it racks up
After just two categories LA is exhausted. Taking a long break lol
They’re voting for best actor
Have they tweeted cause I keep refreshing and there’s nothing?
Glenn Whipp tweeted about it.
Supporting
At least Whipp claimed it was actor (and posted a gif of Sandler with the text). I’d imagine that they got to a point in the best actor vote where they had problems deciding who’d win and decided to vote for best supporting actor at the same time so that it would not lead to a person not winning either award because they couldn’t decide the category.
But who might be in consideration for both categories? Or who might be borderline lead/supporting? Dafoe?
Dafoe, Song, Pitt, Hanks
Damn them for nominating Jojo Rabbit and Joker. I could live with this list without those films.
I’d keep Joker. I want Joker to happen. Hollywood is milking CBM and making money off it so throw them a bone.
So, massive haul for The Irishman, overall not many interesting things though.
With The Two Popes snubbed for Picture I’m officially proclaiming it dead for winning BP at the Oscars.
Big boost for LW (Picture, Director, Actress, S.Actress).
I think that actress line-up is going to be Renee, Scarlett, Lupita, Awkawfina and one more, Ronan or Theron, don’t see other possibility.
Theron and Zelweger are the only 2 safe sure thing third place comes maybe Johansson then the rest will be between Lupita Awkwafina Ronan..
Not sure why Theron would be such a lock. Her film looks like it’s going to struggle getting into BP, and the “physical transformation” slot is sort of occupied by Zellweger.
Not just from Gold Derby odds and you know it very well, Variety Hollywood Reporter deadline Collider Indie Wire Vanity Fair all reacted to her masterful performance so don’t try to dismiss talented people just because you’re rooting for someone
Theron movie had 4 nominations, received the most impressive reactions from critics and moviegoers , is in the top 2 of Gold Derby odds, not only she is a lock but she could win as well, she had the most remarkable transformation, Zellweger was just Zellweger with a wig her movie received mixed reviews and her film will not have more than 1 nod.
I’m not entirely sure what you’re trying to achieve here. I’m not a fan of Zellweger, or her film, but recognize that that is what the Academy likes to go for. Theron could win, but that doesn’t make her a lock for the nomination. Bombshell certainly didn’t receive the most impressive reactions from critics and audiences, since, you know, the film hasn’t even opened yet. And it’s unlikely that its critical reaction would top Marriage Story’s 94 Metascore, if we’re looking for an actress in a critical darling film.
I can list you 50 reactions from critics and moviegoers about Theron performance, your tactics trying hard to dismiss Theron is tiring and overrated now..just because you want to put your favorite in the top lol
The “lol” moment is that you are trying to convince us that a film that is still under embargo and five days away from general release, is a critically acclaimed hit with audiences everywhere. In a week you can have basis for the exact same argument. Right now you simply can’t because the film has yet to prove itself on those fronts.
And you try to convince us that your words come from a bible ? lol as if the members of the academy will listen to you or know your existence ..
And you try to convince us that your words come from a bible ? lol as if the members of the academy will listen to you or know your existence ..
Key difference being of course that I never claimed any of those things you seem to credit to me for whatever reason while your claims I questioned are right here in black and white.
P.S. Just for future reference, any argument that ends with dotdotdot automatically loses credibility. Not all of it, but definitely some of it. If you want to emphasise a point, first maybe make one based on facts. Not dots.
The reactions from the heavy critics are facts. And from many moviegoers are facts too.
These are reactions from pundits mostly, and even the critics who are among them are just some of the critics who can define the film and her as a contender or force the situation so that they won’t do as well as they could have. And “many moviegoers” isn’t “most or almost all of a large group of moviegoers”. Wait until the reviews come out and wait until the box office numbers are out to assess the reviews and box office
Still inaccurate. “Facts”, in this context, are numbers.
When the average of the critical scores gives to Bombshell by “heavy critics” tomorrow will be a high number (75+ MC) then you can accurately make a statement that critics loved the film.
When the PTA that Bombshell delivers on Friday in limited release will be a high number, then you can claim audiences love it. It would be wiser to wait another week to see how it fares in wide release, but if it does well in limited, then you can at least make the argument that “moviegoers love it”.
What you are saying is that since a bunch of positive tweets from film types and random audience members at pre-release screenings are out in the ether, that proves the film is a hit with critics and audiences. It isn’t because it can’t be. YET.
Let’s get back to this next weekend by then we will have a better idea on how it fared with critics (Monday), HFPA (Monday), SAG (Wednesday) and general audiences (Friday).
For the record this is a film I’m rotting for so I sincerely hope it will do well next week at all of those. BUT the claim that essentially states that it already has all those in the bag, is just nonsense.
This is hilarious. Calm down, have a KitKat, and enjoy the ride with the rest of us. You can root for your pony without making fantastical claims about factual stuff.
1. There are no reviews for Bombshell and it also hasn’t been released for moviegoers yet so not sure how you came to the conclusion that it had “the most impressive reactions from critics and moviegoers”.
2. Nobody is a lock at this stage. Not even later. Almost every year there is a contender in Best Actress who doesn’t receive an Oscar nomination in spite of strong precursor support (SAG, Bafta, GG, Critics Choice).
3. You personal opinion on Zellweger’s performance can be whatever you want it to be. Fact remains she received rave reviews, unlike Theron she had already started winning awards and unlike Bombshell it already delivered good reviews (66 MC, 83 RT) and by arthouse standards, respectable Box Office (24M). WHEN Bombshell topped those numbers which for the record it totally could, THEN we can talk until then I don’t think your argument works. At all.
We’ve had at least 50 reactions not just from moviegoers but from Variety, Indie Wire, Deadline, Hollywood Reporter, The New York Times, Collider……
And when those “reactions” are official reviews published by those publications THEN we can talk. Until then they are just chatter. I could list you 50 reactions from reliable pundits, film types and publications who were raving about Jojo Rabbit after its TIFF world premiere and yet it still ended up with a 58MC and so-far-unspectacular Box Office. Truth is unofficial early word from industry screenings doesn’t mean much anymore. It could suggest widespread acclaim. Or it can be misleading af. Latter scenario happens often.
You won’t rob her this year, the way you tired with Tully and Fury Road, this year is completely different she is more than deserving, and it’s not a Johansson fan or whoever fan who will change it
Huh ?
That was for manwe
Oh don’t worry you’ll see them this week, as most of them are already been published in Twitter unless you live under a rock?and you’ll also witness to her nomination at the golden globes too just as today at the Critics Choice , wait also for the SAG
See this is why it would be wise to pursue a conversation instead of trying to pick a fight with outlandish claims. I never said she won’t get the nominations from the HFPA, SAG and later the Academy, I never said she isn’t top2 (actually she is at #2 in my predictions, as well) what I DID say was that you are referencing non-existent reviews and non-existent widespread audience reactions that makes your argument problematic.
And no, I don’t live under a rock, I just happen to be aware of the Bombshell embargo ending tomorrow so no, Alicia, “most of” the reviews have NOT been already published on Twitter, no high-profile publication would break a high-profile embargo like that. SOME critics and industry types may have posted reactions about the film when the social media embargo was lifted a few weeks ago but REVIEWS and TWEETS are entirely different animals.
Again, Jojo Rabbit is the prime example here. Rave tweets. Mediocre reviews. That doesn’t mean Bombshell is definitely getting mediocre reviews, it just means that positive tweets don’t automatically guarantee rave reviews. That’s all.
I can’t stand fan of other actresses who are trying to dismiss or put down Theron I will fight them, she is more than deserving been robbed many times, this year her performance is masterful she takes risks like no other actress out there, committed get into challenging complex roles and to see some Johansson fan ( who is to me mediocre not even in Theron level) saying Theron will not make the top 5!?!!! Drives me crazy
Not sure why you would address that to me since I never said a bad word about Theron whose work I admire and consider criminally underrated (should have been nominated for Young Adult, Fury Road and Tully) but while you don’t have to, I hope you will consider a friendly advice here, and I do mean that it is coming from a friendly place : if anyone – including aroncido and manwe – is hesitant to predict Theron it is not because they are rooting for someone else nor because they have a bad opinion of Theron herself, it is most likely just due to the fact that since the film hasn’t proven itself on two crucial fronts yet (reviews + Box Office), they still consider the film as a whole a question mark and that is a valid assessment on their end.
And on a side note, you can champion your favourite in Best Actress – Theron, clearly – as much as you like and nobody will have any problem with that, that’s basically what we all do here for our respective faves anyway. But please try to do that without attempting to tear down another contender and if possible, please refrain from pitting against each other two highly accomplished actresses because that’s just completely unnecessary, dated and problematic. You CAN say you want Theron to win or you think Theron will win without a low dig at Johansson that won’t help your argument one bit. Quite the opposite.
My message wasn’t toward you, I know that you like Theron and you said many times she is deserving, and talked about her work in Tully, Young Adult , Fury Road, my message was for that manwe who try hard to dismiss Theron work making her not even sure in the top 5 only because he is rooting for his actress.
You sort of have to realize first that winning an Oscar has nothing to do with being deserving or great or anything like that. Fantastic performances don’t even get nominated all the time. When someone says Theron might miss, that has nothing to do with thinking that she’s bad or not deserving. She’s a phenomenal actress.
To be fair I have discussions with manwe often and I do know for a fact that Bombshell is just not his type of film, he doesn’t expect to like it, he doesn’t really wanna see it and thus he doesn’t think it will do all that well in the Oscar race, either. But that’s just a personal preference and he is more than entitled to have that. Do I think he is right that Theron may miss the cut at the Oscars ? No, I don’t. Do I have any problem with him predicting whatever he wants ? No, I don’t. Do I have a problem with him not looking forward to a film that I absolutely can not wait to see ? No, I don’t. And you shouldn’t, either, it is nothing personal. I honestly don’t even think he has anything against Theron, either, I think he just doesn’t think portraying someone as controversial as Megyn Kelly, could lead to an Oscar (nomination) as easily as many of us seem to think so and for the record, he could have a point there, that could be an obstacle. Probably not a big one though.
Theron is not safe for her movie isn’t doing well and she missed tons of noms. if LAFCA resurrects her than we can talk.
She only missed the sandiago liar, she was nominated in most every critics group and awards show.
I still disagree that she is safe. 5th spot at best.
“With The Two Popes snubbed for Picture I’m officially proclaiming it dead for winning BP at the Oscars.”
The stat is 24/24, zero exceptions, ever, like I said above.
I lost my body wins LAFCA score!!!
I just watched the film yesterday and I cannot stop thinking about the score the whole time I watched it. So deserving
Finally recognizing Adam Sandler for his comedic work
Did not see Uncut Gems coming. The Farewell snub was unexpected as well in Picture, especially after making it in both Actress and Supporting Actress.
LAFCA Music/Score:
I Lost My Body, Levy
Runner-up: 1917, Newman
So the Oscar goes to Newman. Don’t look at the winners. You have pay a close attention to LACFA runners-up. The Oscar winners are almost always in their top two.
has anyone caught the full picture list? I remember Uncut Jojo Joker, Irishman, LW, parasite, 1917 but I know I’m missing 1 or 2
Ford v Ferrari, Hollywood, Marriage Story were definitely in there
Yes, it’s a too long a list but perhaps AMPAS should follow suit?
Once, Ford, Uncut
should we start taking Uncut seriously as a potential spoiler nominee? I think that Sandler is in. If GG opens 6 spots per categriy, he’ll get into Drama.
Yeah I guess Uncut Gems is officially in strong contention for a Best Picture nomination. Far from locked though.
yep, we are still in critics circles. It’s misisng out BAFTA for sure.
Why? BAFTA has better nominees than the American televised ceremonies quite often 😀
not their thing I can imagine. Too New York-y. They’ll rather push for something more british.
I’d argue that this is a Refn type thing, the voters have been hearing buzz about it (particularly after it won NYFCC I’d imagine many put it on their ballots just because they thought it was contending) so they nominated it but I’d imagine that the buzz will slowly disappear as the season goes on
very likely though it seems atm that Sandler is the comeback story of the season. Unless Lunch&Fumes match NYC’s banderas or give Eddie the boost.
Sandler would have to displace Leo or Eddie for Oscar. With them in comedy at GG, he has a shot in Drama. SAG will be telling.
Oh they don’t ever snub anyone, do they?
Never. They didn’t announce Action Stars so that means everyone’s nominated
Director
Baumbach
gerwig
Mendes
Safdies
Bong
Marty
QT
Actor
Banderas
deNiro
Leo
Adam D
Eddie
Joaquin
Adam S
Actress
Awkwafina
Erivo
Scarlett
Lupita
Saoirse
Charlize
Renee
Zellweger also
S Actor
Dafoe (lighthouse)
Hanks
Hopkins
Pacino
Pesci
Pitt
Good for Hopkins.
Hopkins haha. So many took him out these days…
Expand the field to 6 and still no room for Song Kang-ho. So depressing
Passion pick perhaps? You know that someone who hits all major rpecursors always gets snubbed in favor of a passion pick.
Calling Tom Hanks
S Actress:
Dern
Scarlett
Lopez
Pugh
Robbie (Bomb)
Zhang
I think LAFCA will give us our BP winner. I think it’s already down to two? I think you know which two. Many are predicting Parasite, but I think they will go for home favourite Hollywood.
It’s starting! TV first. 🙁
WTF? They have 7 contenders per category?
Good lord they have a million nominees in each category. I almost forgot why they’re so boring.
LAFCA Cinematography
Mathon, Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Atlantics
Runner-up: Deakins, 1917
RIP
😉
It’s like they wanted to tell NYFCC
“You guys only gave it to her for Portrait, we’re way cooler and we’ll give it to her for two films!”
Good pick anyway.
And the Oscar goes to Deakins. Great recognition for the Lady. She is sure to be nominated after winning at NYFCC and LAFCA.
I would want to think that but I’m trying to not get my hopes up too much. Ed Wood, Barton Fink and Wings of Desire each missed after winning both cinematography awards
Yes, but the odds are still in her favour.
LMAO! KTLA says they don’t have a script for their shows. Yeah, we noticed. Explains why BFCA ceremony is such hot mess.
Holy shit batman this is bad. Weather show lmao!
LA just started. They are voting on Cinematography.
I don’t think they will go for Deakins. That would a waste since he already locked to win the Oscar. It’s better to recognise films which haven’t got any love yet.
Remember when they gave Best Actress to both Close and Gaga and neither won the Oscar eventually…lmao.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL! Hot mess! maybe they mess up that bad this time too? :fingers crossed:
What was even funnier was giving TWO awards to Bale and he never won another as Malek swept from there onwards.
Never understood the point of that. So embarrassing when they could have spread the wealth.
so whoever wins is going to lose Oscar. I bet prayer circles to lose LAFCA are held all over Hollywood.
No, that’s wrong. For me, the best of the top critics group in terms of predicting the Oscars is LAFCA, especially BP. A film they don’t honour in some way almost never wins. Their acting awards are a bit strange sometimes, especially lead actress. But they do have a great record in Supporting actor.
don’t be a party pooper. we had fun with their misfires. 🙂
that’s savage!
I can’t pretend to really truly care about these.
My wishful predictions for LAFCA:
Film: Parasite
Director: Malick, A Hidden Life
Screenplay: Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Actor: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Actress: Noemie Merlant, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Cinematography: A Hidden Life
Editing: The Irishman
Production Design: Parasite
Score: Marriage Story
Foreign Language Film: An Elephant Sitting Still (NGNG)
I have no clue about Animated and Documentary.
My wishful predictions – anyone who didn’t win NBR and/or New York Awards. lets have a little bit of race until the big ones:
Film: Joker
Director: Mendes (since they love to split)
Actor: Pattinson (I’d go with Driver if he didn’t win for Patterson thus being low-key disqualigied)
Actress: Scarlett
S Actor: Shia
S Actress: Lopez or Pugh
Film: A Hidden Life
Director: Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Screenplay: Parasite
Actress: Noémie Merlant and Adèle Haenel, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Actor: Robert Pattinson and Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Supporting Actor: Song Kang-ho (Parasite)
Supporting Actress: Juliette Binoche, High Life
Cinematography: Long Day’s Journey into Night
Editing: Parasite
Production Design: Missing Link
Score: A Hidden Life
Foreign Language Film: An Elephant Sitting Still
Animated: Buñuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles
Documentary: Honeyland
Okay, some last minute LA Critics predictions:
Film: Parasite
Director: Tarantino, “Once upon a time… in Hollywood”
Actress: Haenel and Merlant, “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”
Actor: Adam Driver, “Marriage Story” and “The Report”
Supp. Actress: Cho Yeo-jeong, “Parasite”
Supp. Actor: Song Kang-ho, “Parasite”
Screenplay: Parasite
I don´t like this group (BFCA), but what about some LA critics predictions?
It would be cool if they split the Best Actress Award and give it to both Adele Haenel and Noemie Merlant in “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”!
“I don´t like this group (BFCA)”
welcome to the really big club. 🙂
this is where the fun begins.
LAFCA Music/Score:
I Lost My Body, Levy
Runner-up: 1917, Newman
LAFCA Cinematography
Mathon, Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Atlantics
Runner-up: Deakins, 1917