It’s a funny season. It’s a quiet season. There are a lot of gun-shy studios it feels like to me. There are a lot of people playing it safe, hedging their bets, not trying to plunge in so soon. Is that because everyone is afraid of looking like “the frontrunner” too soon? Or is that the demand has at last outrun the supply? There has never been an opportunity for more films to break into the Best Picture category and yet so few actually in the running. Right now it feels quiet. Too quiet. Could it be that something is about to drop to really shake things up? There are still so many question marks – The Lovely Bones, Avatar, Invictus, Nine, namely.
There is something to be said, though, for the hearty success story. You can’t really get one of those in the Best Pic race unless it’s released early in the year and is around long enough to prove staying power, and perhaps historical significance. It is the opposite of the mad love story (Slumdog Millionaire) that flies in, takes over the town, blows everything else out of the water and then disappears on down the road, leaving its wreckage behind, with Tippi Hedren being taken out of the house mute and bandaged. Okay, so that’s taking the weak metaphor a bit far. The hearty success story is a great thing when it comes along because you kind of know that film is here to stay – The Departed, No Country for Old Men, The Silence of the Lambs…
David Poland has just written his Oscar column and in the first paragraph he kind of hints at something we’ve been figuring for a while now (well, to be specific, you readers, Craig Kennedy and Ryan have figured while I was reluctant at first, still kind of am), that Inglourious Basterds could be that hearty success story of the year and the one that will become an undeniable Best Pic contender.
Pushing out the column this week, I overlooked one title that I really do think is a serious contender for Best Picture now… and that is Inglourious Basterds (the chart has now been corrected). It is not the film I would normally expect to get in and I discounted the likelihood around release. But with Toronto flopping as an award parade, a quality movie-movie that many people really, really enjoy – not unlike The Departed – becomes more and more likely to make the cut.
Inglourious Basterds is slightly different from The Departed, I think, in that I knew (and I think others knew) that The Departed was not only the hearty success story but combined with Scorsese lose-lose status, the surefire frontrunner and winner. The Departed is unlike Inglourious Basterds in that one is a film that asks more questions than it answers, is a work of art probably, and divides audiences. The other is a major crowdpleaser that, even with a difficult ending, is still a film most people could watch and appreciate. I felt that The Departed was a tight nut – compact and perfect, without a single flaw. Inglourious Basterds is a more difficult sell but is one of those films that will become, unlike The Departed, iconic.
Still, I think one can say with a fair amount of confidence that Basterds is easily one of the most talked about, and one of the best, films of 2009. I think that’s an easy call. But back to Poland.
I can’t really get down with his chart because he has films at the top of the list that haven’t been seen and then just two near the bottom that are “still too blurry.”
More over, he puts The Hurt Locker in the same category as The Fantastic Mr. Fox, Inglourious Basterds, Coco Before Chanel and Avatar – these he calls “Serious Contenders.” The Hurt Locker belongs square at the top of the list. If there is one lock in the best picture race (okay, two counting Up in the Air) it’s The Hurt Locker, easily one of the best films of 2009, and one that might clock in as the best film of the year (even though it won’t win because it won’t have made enough money).
And he has Up in the Air, the one film you could bet the house on, as an 80% lock. Really David? Really? He has Up in the second slot – and yeah, it’s looking fairly likely that the film will be the first animated to get nominated but there are still a few contenders left — and there is still the animated category itself. If Up is THAT strong, it will win there and won’t need to take a spot away from the live action films. But if the Academy is trying to use the Big Ten as representative of all films, foreign language, animated and doc – Up is probably your best bet, but still, it’s not a 90%.
Finally, he has Nine in the top slot. I guess I’d ask, has he seen it yet? Even if he has seen it that doesn’t guarantee anything. One’s opinion in the privacy of a screening can be very different from how the film ultimately plays with critics and audiences. Nine looks great, it’s true, but it’s still too early to be calling it the frontrunner, in my opinion.
He tosses in the Toronto contenders, An Education, A Serious Man and A Single Man, lumping together the latter two as the “Jewish Precious” and the “Gay Precious.”
Finally, he calls Bright Star The “Walking Dead.” This is probably the only real gripe I have with his list — this isn’t a science, hell, it’s hardly even a noun, but to put this Campion film so far down on the list is crazy. This is one of the few films floating around out there that will capture the attention of, I think I can say without sounding too sexist, the women voters, if nothing else. But I think it has a hell of a lot more going for it than that.
First off, one has to take any film with a strong performance in it seriously. Usually if a woman is up for Best Actress that means, at the very least, the film will be seen. It is also likely going to be strong with the tech categories. Toss in Jane Campion for actress and screenplay and you have a Best Pic contender that is a hell of a lot stronger than a DOA. There, I think that is a lot nicer than saying, “is he out of his fucking mind?”
But of course, you can’t please all people and fans. Even now, though, before many of the other films screen for bloggers, critics and audiences, several titles are floating around that seem strong enough to jot down on the list. So if we had to pick ten today, not counting those that haven’t been seen, and not counting animated, foreign language and doc, I think it would look something like this:
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Bright Star
Precious
District 9
A Single Man
Julie & Julia
You’d have to toss out a few to make way for those still upcoming – and you may have to toss out at least one for animated, but I’m going to guess that there will be more than a few crowdpleaser/moneymakers on the list. So Avatar may bump District 9.
Again, those are the films I think have the best shot right now at making anyone’s top ten list. We’re still a few months out for the critics’ top ten lists, and we still have a long way to go before the ballots go out. A lot can happen when a storm is building. And we’re all still waiting for that hurricane.
As far as the acting categories, Poland runs them down this way:
If it’s Day-Lewis, Clooney, Firth, Renner, and Damon… what happens to Mortensen, Wahlberg, Sarsgaard, Stuhlbarg, and Maguire?
If it’s Streep, Mulligan, Cotillard, Weisz, and Sidibe… what happens to Tautou, Cruz, Cornish, Swank, and Theron?
It’s making my head spin. I don’t know where he is coming from with this. But Streep, Mulligan, Cornish, Sadibe – that’s your four locks. Maybe there is a fifth slot for Farmiga, maybe someone else.
Actor – Firth, Clooney (two strongest), Renner, Damon, Stuhlbarg – I see as the locks. But others will break through. I’ll leave the supporting categories out for now.
It’s only October. We have a long way to go before we know anything about anything, and even then we may know nothing.
99 Responses for "State of the Race: The Calm Before the Storm"
Good call on Basterds. It’s certainly a picture many people will enjoy seeing a second time as a screener, unlike, say, Precious, which a lot of people will have a problem with seeing more than once.
You know you bring up a good point. I always try to look at which films work best on Screener-TV because that makes a big difference, I think, come Oscar time – mainly because many of them have no time to go to screenings and must rely on their stack of DVDs. Some films will not re-play well – usually poor production value is diminished on DVD, imo.
JULIE AND JULIA is such a terrible film though. For it to receive anything other than a nod for Streep would be just so unfortunate. It may have one advantage in being one of the most seen films of the year. I can’t imagine many people having great passion for the movie as a whole though.
I personally thought BRIGHT STAR to be a little well…dull. Abbie Cornish would be in my top ten female performances of the year, its true, but that is at this point and without having seen so many of the major releases yet to come.
AVATAR just looks like a video game to me. Maybe it will be extraordinary but I think on the trailer alone its going to turn off a lot of the older academy members, who might at the end of the day be more impressed with the underdog success story of DISTRICT 9 (never underestimate that factor to sway AMPAS).
NINE looks like old school movie musical and I think is the best bet for a nomination of all the contenders yet unseen. At the screening of BRIGHT STAR I went to, all of the grey hairs went nuts for the preview of NINE before they fell asleep watching Campion’s opus.
With all its flaws, Inglourious Basterds has a sense of audacity that is refreshing to watch. Like No Country or There Will Be Blood (though it’s nowhere near as good as those films IMHO), it dares you not to like it. That might be enough to carry it to the Oscars since so many films are playing it safe this season. So far, that is.
dave poland is an idiot, but a lack of awards contenders from toronto? really? precious, up in the air, a single man, a serious man, bright star, broken embraces, an education etc. etc. ugh. that and the fact that he reduces reducing movies to “jewish” and “gay” (which i find particularly offensive for a single man [i haven't seen a serious man] especially because a movie like a single man is that rare film where the loss of love just HAPPENS to be about gay love)…
anyhoo, i don’t see why there is such a strong hagte for julie and julia. it’s not perfect but who was expecting that? in person, i have not crossed anyone who didn’t thouroughly (sp?) enjoy it. it was entertaining and very re-watchable. i definitely think it was far from terrible…just not classic awards bait.
and am i the only one who is extremely unexcited for invictus, lovely bones and avatar? i won’t see avatar unless it gets important nods, the lovely bones was a pretty weak book and invictus…well, i’m think i have complete eastwood fatigue.
It’s HALF a terrible film. The other half is great, imo. I don’t know about the “grey hairs” of which you speak — an Academy screening of what. Nine looks amazing, no doubt.
I didn’t hate JULIE AND JULIA, Jason. But claws do come out when mediocre films start being touted as Oscar contenders.
I honestly think The Hurt Locker was a tad overhyped, and coming out so much earlier than the other contenders I think will hurt it. I think the buzz for it is dying down and would not be surprised if it gets edged out of the top ten. Time will tell.
Sasha -
Yes I will give you that. The Child story line of JULIE AND JULIA was enchanting. This was at a Guild screening of BRIGHT STAR, which means probably a few AMPAS voters and a lot of crazy SAG members who show up to anything free.
A great read Sasha. Thanks. This year looks to very interesting for film. I actually think it has potential to be as good as 1939! And man I hope it’s not as predictable as last year was, ugh. Like I knew there would be a Slumdog sweep last year, I knew Slumdog would win Best Picture, I knew Danny Boyle would win Best Director, I knew Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke would win Best Actor, I knew Kate Winslet would win her overdue Oscar for leading actress, EVERYONE knew Heath Ledger would win Best Supporting Actor, and I knew Penelope Cruz would end up winning supporting actress for Vicky Cristina Barcelona due to Winslet being placed in the leading category for The Reader. Hopefully this year will be an overall better year for film and that awards season won’t be so predictable.
Also it’ll be interesting to be which films we all hype and got excited for end up disappointing or get snubbed by the Oscars(like Revolutionary Road last year)
I think those potential films could/will be: Invictus, Nine, and The Lovely Bones
Invictus because it’s supposed to be coming out this December and all we have are just a few shots of Damon and Freeman playing soccer! I know it’s Eastwood and some felt he as snubbed last year but Invictus is a sports film, nothing more. I wouldn’t be shocked if it gets snubbed.
Nine because even though I wish Marion and Penelope the best, it’s as you pointed out Sasha, being already being called the front-runner by some and it’s way too overhyped. The Academy loved Moulin Rouge! and Chicago but I dunno, Moulin Rouge! brought the musical back and Chicago brought success to the musical back, what will Nine do? Plus Marshall has disappointed before(ahem, Memoirs of Geisha) and 8/12 has a lot of it’s lovers. Nine will most likely be mediocre compared to 8/12 since it’s a masterpiece. But it’s got some of the Oscars favorites so who knows. If it doesn’t get snubbed I still think it won’t win anything major. I think it will be the Benjamin Button of this year, lot of Oscar noms but wins a few in the end. And finally The Lovely Bones because just like Nine it’s way too overhyped.
I hate using the word ‘locks’ but it’s all I can do plus it’s already October! Awards season is officially starting.
So I guess the locks are in my opinion: An Education, Precious, The Hurt Locker, Up, Up in the Air
Everyone knows Up will at least be nominated for Best Animated Feature and Best Original Screenplay and since there are now 10 slots for Best Picture I can see it getting in.
Precious because it’s already won so many awards (Sundance to be exact) and Mo’Nique’s buzz keeps growing and growing. Gabourey Sidibe’s buzz to keeps growing and heck even Mariah Carey is even getting good word.
The Hurt Locker because yes I know it came out so early but it’s been raved so much by critics alike, specifically the Critics Choice Association. And I actually think Kathryn Bigelow will be the first female to win Best Director.
And finally Up in the Air because it too like Precious has also gotten so much good word and it has George freaking Clooney who the Academy loves.
Moving onto the acting categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress, there’s the Nine girls, I can see 2 of them getting in, Cruz and Cotillard. Though Marion could be campaigned in the leading actress category so you never know. And of course Mo’Nique. While I do think The Lovely Bones could disappoint, I can see Susan Sarandon getting in, it’ll be her comeback. And since the Academy consists of some retards, Saoirse Ronan could be nominated in this category as well since she’s still a child and blah, blah but mot likely leading Actress. As for the final spot, between the 2 Up in the Air girls, Vera Famiga and Anna Kendrick, I’d go with the latter since more critics are raving her but Farmiga is considered overdue for an acting nomination so again, who knows? Julianne Moore for A Single Man is also a consideration.
For Best Supporting Actor I’m not so sure. All I can predict at the moment is Matt Damon, Alfred Molina, Stanley Tucci, and the frotnrunner in my opinion Christoph Waltz.
Best Leading Actress looks fairly weak at the moment but still I’ll try to predict.
Meryl Streep for either of her movies, most likely Julie & Julia since she plays a real life person in the that movie and she got so raves. Meryl is like the Gleen Close of the 1980’s, always getting nominated no matter what, except her supporting performances get nominated in the leading category. (Think The Devil Wears Prada)
And Carey Mulligan who I’m predicting to win, she’s gotten amazing word and her performance has been compared to Audrey Hepburn’s performance in Roman Holiday, which Audrey won an Oscar for btw. Saoirse Ronan, Hilary Swank as well and if Mother and Child gets a distributor (sp?), Annette Benning. and maybe Cotillard is she gets campaigned leading for Nine. Helen Mirren is also a possibility as well as Abiie Cornish.
I can’t really predict leading actor since it looks so competitive right. All I can say is Colin Firth definitely for A Single Man who I’m predicting to win.
For Best Director, Kathryn Bigelow who I think will win, Clint Eastwood, Peter Jackson, Lee Daniels, and maybe Lone Sherfig. Rob Marshall is also a possiblity.
All I can say is this year looks to be an amazing year and I can’t wait but boy, I typed too much. Oh well. Just my 2 cents.
I think The Hurt Locker will win the award. I can’t think of any other possible winner.
oh and sorry for all of the spelling errors I made.
Toronto sorted out contenders just fine. Of remaining movies, I can see only Avatar making a splash. Everything else is predicatbly boring and likely to make room for Toronto line-up. Also, if WTWTA gets fantastic reviews and boxoffice, it may grab the blockbuster spot.
I`m talking about movies with real shot at the win, not some of those “Look at me, I`m newly open-minded AMPAS Dee, so we nominated these to fill in 10 spots but hell will freeze over before we actually vote for them” movies.
However, Bastereds getting in BP, BD, BScript, B(S)Actor and Actress would be supersweet.
I fixed the typos, Kay. That’s a perk you earn for helping find pics and vids for us.
I think his list looked solid… I like the one at awardcontenders.com as well. I agree with that site in that I do not think Up will get a best picture nomination, and I think Nine seems most likely to get a nomination for Best Picture.
Great, incisive writing, Sasha! As always! SOOO thrilling to read what you write, especially when impassioned! Which you are about something that, er, shall we say, a little dull this year?
But I’d rather have something dull and opaque and unclear than last year’s SD stomp. Makes it MUCH more interesting.
Yes, “Inglourius Basterds” is in it. To win it? I dunno. Note to ADers – The Academy doesn’t like Tarantino. I mean, REALLY doesn’t like QT. So I doubt that they give it the win. But it’s a hit and saved the Weinsteins, so that equals a nomination.
It’s gonna be really weird, I think, this year. The BP race. I also do NOT think they are going to nominate any animated films in the category that doesn’t belong to them.
So there’s lots of space for Art House fare, with a passionate following, like, I’m a broken record but “Coco Avant Chanel” which they’ll all watch.
“If it’s Day-Lewis, Clooney, Firth, Renner, and Damon… what happens to Mortensen, Wahlberg, Sarsgaard, Stuhlbarg, and Maguire?
If it’s Streep, Mulligan, Cotillard, Weisz, and Sidibe… what happens to Tautou, Cruz, Cornish, Swank, and Theron?”- DP
Parsing this is a little more manageable, since it’s still five slots as opposed to ten.
We haven’t seen Day-Lewis as Guido. An Italian. Of course, he’s brilliant and can play anything, but notice they don’t show any of him TALKING in the many many clips that are out, which I find bizarre
And I also have to ad that “Nine” is based on a very shakey musical with no hits in it. It had a very respectable run on Bway, and won Tonys, but “Chicago” was a much stronger source with GREAT songs.
So something like “Hurt Locker” is far and away the frontrunner I would say.
Matt Damon as Best Actor for “The Informant”? I’m not so sure about that one either.
“An Education” could sweep Peter Sarsgaard in as Best Actor, as well as getting nominated for everything else in the book and Carey Mulligan is still the frontrunner in Best Actress. That’ll get a BP nod for sure and maybe even a Best Director. Molina, too, has a real shot for Supp. But did David leave out Christophe Waltz? HE’s in. Best Supp. Actor. But he’s in.
I also do not think Rachel Weisz is a foregone concluson either. And Theron is not an “In” And Penelope is the BEST she’s ever been in “Broken Embraces.”
I’m going back to the never nominated Audrey Tautou who is playing well with critics and audiences alike.
If they nominate her for acting in her own language(French) are the gonna nominate Penelope (who won last year) for ALSO Acting in a foreign tongue, Spanish.
ONE of them could get nominated but not both.
Nobody seems to be liking “Amelia” and I watched “Trucker” last night. That’s getting nothing. Very disappointing and Michelle Monaghan is not arresting or charismatic at all. A bore is starred.
Much more Academy friendly and VERY similar to “Trucker” is “Julia” with Tilda Swinton. Watching “Trucker” just makes you appreciate “Julia” all the more.
NOT “Julie and Julia”
“A Serious Man” will get nominated for BP and Original Screenplay, but will it get anything else?
Michael Sthulbarg’s reluctance to do press is not helping him, either.
I’d say it’s Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe, Tautou and Swinton.
The jury’s still out on everything else, which is nice, actually.
I don’t understand the continued talk about Coco Avant Chanel being a contender. Its reviews have been mediocre to say the least. If it’s a big hit in the US (unlikely) and the best actress contenders are weak, Audrey may have a shot at a nomination, but even this is a stretch.
I’m neither anti-Coco or pro-Coco, but overall its reviews have been respectable, DBibby. A metascore of 63 is not spectacular, but I wouldn’t say mediocre. Coco avant Chanel has at least one influential supported in LAT’s Kenneth Turan:
I don’t care for WSJ’s Joe Morgenstern, but he rarely throws his legs in the air like this:
BP César nominee, likely. BP Oscar nominee? No. But you’re going to need to apply to for special dispensation from the GTTG* to not like this movie.
*(Gay Tastemakers & Troublemakers Guild)
Here are some of my impressions of what could get in the Top 10 Best Pics and why (in random order):
The Lovely Bones – Well it’s Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens, Ronan, Wahlberg, Weisz, Sarandon, Tucci, based on a bs novel/drama/fantasy plot, technical merits abounding in nearly every category … I CAN’T see how this misses. I just can’t.
NINE – Again, the “possibilty” of 10-12 noms or more keeps this in Best Pic territory anyway. We’ve talked about it’s strengths and possible weaknesses before.
AN EDUCATION – It’s the brit bloc vote of the year (a la Atonement of 07). And the reviews are very good.
PRECIOUS – For every reason that’s been talked about.
UP – Well, IF an animated gets in, it would probably be this.
UP IN THE AIR – Reitman (who’s well liked), Clooney, early rave reviews. I see it as a nomination-worthy combo, if not better.
THE HURT LOCKER – Buzz has faded, but it will pick-up again with screeners/critics awards. Bigelow is one of the stories of the year. And no less than 4 of the technical branches will appreciate the film, as well.
INGLOURIOUS BASTERS: Holocaust film, Christoph Waltz, the FUN film of the top 10, rebirth for Tarantino, well reviewed, & made a TON of money. I see many reasons why this could make Top 10.
Now, here are 2 that I’m pretty sure about, but not positive:
INVICTUS – Clint, Freeman, Damon … sounds great. Only time will tell. And I don’t see more than 5 overall noms for this, anyway.
AVATAR – last yr. The Dark Knight received 8 noms and didn’t get into the Top 5. THIS year, Avatar could be the 6-8 noms type of film, but with 10 noms … I see it getting in, I think.
And finally, my … “I don’t know, maybe they’ll get in’s”:
BRIGHT STAR – Period piece, well received, Cornish buzz, Costume buzz, Campion comeback story. But will it be enough?
A SERIOUS MAN – Sure, the reviews are great. But can it get anything more than a screenplay nom?
Those are my thought as of now (without seeing or hearing more about a slewwww of other contenders).
Solid appraisals, John.
Has it become fashionable to dismiss Peter Jackson? Everybody ready to give Rob Marshall a seat on the front row without seeing the movie, but Jackson has to prove himself? I don’t get it.
Admittedly, I’m uneasy about the casting of Wahlberg and Weisz as the parents, but never underestimate the handmade effects of Weta Workshop.
Plus, The Lovely Bones has chosen a wise rollout. It’s the post-Holiday gloom slot. Maybe not a lot of people will want to watch the story of the murdered girl of Christmas Eve, but we’ll all be in the mood for grim tragedy come January. Worked out well for Million Dollar Baby, Munich, Letters from Iwo Jima and The Reader, did it not?
There have been comparisons made of Bright Star and Coco Avant Chanel, since they are essentially both period films about women, but out of the two, Abbie Cornish has a much better chance of getting a nom than Audrey Tatou.
Bright Star still has a high Metacritic rating, and I’m thinking once it’s released wide, it might have more influence.
I think the Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, Precious, and a Serious Man are locks for now.
Regarding Bright Star: it opened on only a few screens 2.5 weeks ago, then expanded to 130, and now it’s at 317 this weekend (nice increments)… is it going wide? Will it get to 800 or 1,000 or more eventually. Does anyone know Apparition’s plans for it here in the U.S.?
Best Actress is still a tossup between Streep & Mulligan. My money is on Streep…
“Does anyone know Apparition’s plans for it here in the U.S.?”
Apparition is distributing The Tree of Life, too.
Apparition and Summit are the new Picturehouse and Paramount Vantage.
Thanks Ryan for fixing my typos! Also to markus, nah. I think Mulligan has the better chance. Julie & Julia, while a good performance isn’t even in Meryl’s top 10 performances and I think she’ll her 3rd Oscar for another dramaic performance. It is written.
I just don’t want to see Basterds make it since a # of less-likely contenders got both better reviews and better box office: Hangover, Star Trek, & Harry Potter 6. I think Q1-3’s theatrical releases have provided 3 strong BP contenders Hurt/Up/Bright Star and 3 strong contenders for other major categories Inglourious/Informant/Julia.
From what I’ve seen of other pundits, it seems like his T8 are the most-consensus-y exc for Locker in place of A Single Man. However, A Single Man is my hopeful #1 of the year. I wonder if it will be weird if it is Serious & Single Man, and Up/in the Air. Maybe if Serious Man’s reviews end up not great it won’t do that well…their only 2 Oscar heavies got praises all around. For the last 2 slots, Chanel seems a weird choice for “the foreign slot;” I don’t think reviews or box office will be that great.
Interesting at White Ribbon but not A Prophet as contender; and It’s Complicated>Julia. And I’d be psyched if no one liked Amelia. Fantastic Mr. Fox>Bright Star? Just no. It is interesting that 2 films are apparently viable BP contenders.
For actress, I think Theron’s reviews are just too bad and her other noms were for people being all, “oh she turned herself so ugly.” I hear no such talk now. Weisz…for Agora? I’ve heard little about it. Tautou…I think that if they ignored her turn in Amelie despite giving the film 5 noms, she won’t make it…My ranking of what I’d like to see from least to most of the 10 I find most likely:
10. Swank, 9. Mulligan, 8. Cruz; 7. Mirren, 6. Bening [though I think this still is distributor-less]
5. Sidibe, 4. Cotillard, 3. Ronan; 2. Cornish, 1. Streep
Firth + Clooney, yes, but Morgan Freeman should be a heavyweight. I would say the rest of his top five, and Mortensen, loom large. Stuhlbarg could be helped by being so very central to the Oscar-y follow-up to No Country, I suppose. I want Sean Penn to be a heavyweight, but who knows about Tree of Life.
It’d be nice for Gyllenhaal to join the males’ 2-noms-before-40 club that Phoenix, Law, and DiCaprio are in. Odd at no mention of Waltz or Mo’Nique.
Streep received the best reviews of her career for Julie & Julia. She has the momentum and 16 nominations certainly make her “past due” so I don’t see how she can lose…
The NYTimes gave “Coco” a huge money rave. And now, so it seems to did the LATimes. With Chanel herself as a draw, and those dreamy production values…I mean, I’ve seen it twice already and can’t wait to go again…
It’s at the Paris Theater(appropriately)juxtaposed to the Plaza Hotel(or whatever it is being converted into) and will run there, I’m sure, through the holidays like “La Vie En Rose” did.
And Tautou’s EXTREMELY severe, even grave, performance is striking in its originality, I think. This is not a woman who is ever going to let herself be trifled with.
Her serious demeanor contrasts with the lushness of the surroundings she finds herself in. I think she’s a slam-dunk.
For a nomination. Not a win. I think one French actress in a French film per decade is the most the American academy is gonna allow. But they will nominate a foreign actress for Best Actress.
Poland calling “Bright Star” DOR- Dead On Release is not going to help it either.
These films have to do SOME business to even be in the running.
“Nine” could get nominated for as many FOUR Supporting Actress awards. A first. And then there’s the non-campaigning Mo’Nique. Who will only do an interview if she’s paid for it. Not always a great campaign strategy. As a comedian, she thinks an Oscar isn’t going to lead to other parts and a different career path. So she isn’t lifting a finger. Unless she’s paid.
And yes, all the studios are low-balling the Oscar race this year. Austerity. Economic Downturn. All that plays in to them not spending as much as they used to on junkets.
But this COULD be a year where we see TWO women nominated for Best Director- Kathryn Bigelow and Lone Scherfig.
I also just saw “An Education” again yesterday and was blown away once again by how PERFECTLY it’s directed. And you can’t get around the brilliance of Carey Mulligan. Out of nowhere and into the stratosphere. And Hollywood always loves a Cindererlla story.
And both Sarsgaard’s performance and Alfred Molina’s grew on me the second time around. The Academy had NEVER nominated the ubiqutous, brilliant Sarsgaard. He makes everything look so simple, I think. Subtlety is his forte. Subtlety doesn’t win awards but it gets nominations.
Molina, also never nominated, is British
and has the flashier-over-the-top-role as Mulligan’s conflicted, funny father. And he’s sympathetic. You understand him as you understand Mulligan’s need to rebel against him.
Sarsgaard has the villain role and he plays it superbly, but if he and Molina are both jostling for a Supporting Actor nod, they’ll nominate the sympathetic Brit every time.
Pardon my ignorance, but what’s happened to Antichrist? Has it been determined American audiences will abhor it to the point of oblivion?
Word. I’d like to see ANTICHRIST succeed, just for it’s audacity.
“Poland calling “Bright Star” DOR- Dead On Release is not going to help it either.”
Won’t help it or hurt it.
Poland thuds with equal awkwardness as wordsmith and Oscar Svengali.
“Pardon my ignorance, but what’s happened to Antichrist?”
Critics: iffy
Audiences: iffy
AMPAS: as if-fy
Dana Carvey as George Bush 41: “Not gonna happen.”
if audrey tatou didn’t get nominated for amelie, she won’t get nominated for this.
bright star has actually been expanding nicely here in toronto and is actually playing at a few giant multi plexes (usually a movie like bright star only lasts at the art house unless it has someone like ron howard directing it *coughcough*frostnixon*coughcough* or gets nominated for oscars *coughcough*the reader*coughcough*.
precious and up in the air are the only bonafide locks. i say that because the hype is deafening and people are going to see them. i’ve spoken to people who would never see either of these movies that are interested in them because of all the raves. that, and the fact that the raves are actually reallllly deserving.
i’d LOVE to see damon get nominated. although the informant! was a let down, he was phenomenal;
and ANYTHING but the hangover for best pic! seriously, ANYTHING.
The article mentions “UP” would be the first animated film nominated. If you meant of all time it would not be correct because “Beauty and the Beast” was nominated for best picture back in 1991.
Anyway, I really don’t have faith in “Coco Avant Chanel” for actress or picture. The film’s reviews are not good enough and the actress category already seems crowded with three breakout stars this year Cornish, Mulligan and Sidibe. The other contenders consist of Swank, Ronan, Streep, Cotillard and Mirren (her film has a distributor now), which I can see making the cut before Audrey.
@Markus, #27:
Streep received the best reviews of her career for “Julie and Julia”? Let’s not go overboard. Better than her reviews for “Sophie’s Choice”?
Streep will be nominated for Best Actress, of course, but I’m not sold on her winning. Not yet, anyway.
As for David Poland announcing “Bright Star” DOR, I’d like to offer this blurb from the most recent edition of Entertainment Weekly: “Jane Campion’s festival favorite got even brighter in its second weekend, jumping a massive 254 percent to score the second-highest per-screen average in the top 20.”
Whether it will slip into the BP Oscar list, I’m not sure, but I really don’t think it can fairly be labeled DOR.
I actually just saw Antichrist last night at the NYFF. Never experienced anything like that in a movie, especially with the audience reaction. It will extremely divide U.S. audiences in my opinion. Charlotte Gainsbourg and Willem Dafoe were both excellent in it, however.
#19 ” I CAN’T see how this misses. I just can’t.”
I can. I can see this miss out in BD, BA,BSA,etc because too many movies look much stronger in these categories. Also, the director and writer`s biggest clout comes from the trilogy, not individual movies that got nominated over the years. Finally, why would anyone buzz about raped and murdered teenager watching from heaven how her family falls apart when they already buzz about a teenager pregnant with the second child by her father whose fmaily is in crumbles and mother is such a mega-bitch that she is considered a winner in her respective acting category? I`m sorry, but when it comes to tragedy aspect, LB doesn`t hold as strong emotional pull as Presh. Lets also not forget that Paramount had LB sceduled to open wide in December given the fact it has build-in fandom and big budget (reports range from $75 mio to $100 mio). But with the arrival of UITA`a tremendous success on festivals, LB`s got slow roll-out which is, no matter how you spin it, weird for the movie that has fanbase already. This isn`t Slumdog or MDB or any of those hidden gems that need WOM to propel them to big numbers and on AMPAS radar. However, guess who gets wide Xmas release, after a slow roll-out in November? Current No.1 darling of the studio, UITA. Why? because holiday season extends movie`s legs, duh. They want UITA to be a big hit because it`s their Oscar pony and rightly so. They can count on BP, BD,BAdapted, BA and BSA from this one. It has Gorgeous George in his finest role. What more Hollywood needs? And he has a great shot at a win too. OTOH, I can`t imagine Ronesme to be a real threat to Meryl, Gabby, Carey and Annette if M&C gets 2009 release. No way especially when compared to shit Gabby`s Presh has to go through. No way, gimmick kid actor or not.
So, yeah, all considered, why wouldn`t it miss filler #10? There are worthier movies to fill it (Basterds)
“But you’re going to need to apply to for special dispensation from the GTTG* to not like this movie.
*(Gay Tastemakers & Troublemakers Guild)”
Haha, Ryan! I’ll give you a costumes nom maybe, and pimp out A Single Man? Will this suffice for a dispensation?
Gee whiz, bambi. Sorry to get you all hot & bothered.
You’re right, LB may miss out. And it’s type of release/expansion/roll-out/ IS a bit interesting.
But it sounds like you’re reaallllyyy against the film before it’s remotely close to being released. I’m just being optmistic about that film’s chances, AND ‘predicting’ what may happen with it; knowing the pedigree.
Have you seen Precious and Up in the Air to substantiate your too-sure feelings of it’s success box-office wise AND Oscar noms-wise?
I think the films that will be on most critics’ top ten lists will be in general the most likely to be nominated.
I don’t remember, but was the Reader in many top ten lists, because I think the reviews for it were below 70%?
This year, I think Weinstein will have less power, as the whole market has changed economically, but with his doggedness, A Single Man has a chance?
Looking at ranked contenders from In Contention, MCN, Ropes of Silicon, Indiewire:
Actor – Clooney & Firth in T5 all around. Day-Lewis & Freeman not, only because movie’s unreleased, which is a factor for some (but not all). Renner almost.
Damon alternately on top, on the bubble, or off the radar. Mortensen & Sarsgaard mostly on bubble.
Actress – Streep & Mulligan in T5 all around. Sidibe & Cotillard mostly. Swank, Ronan, and Cornish alternately in front and on bubble. Tautou & Cruz mostly on bubble. Mirren’s just got picked up, and Bening’s I think still hasn’t been.
Sup Actor – They seem bored. Only Duvall, Waltz, Tucci, Molina show up on most.
Sup Actress – Moore, Farmiga, & Mo’Nique (I’m assuming an absent mind for one person.) on top. Dench & Cruz are unknown but anticipated quantities. Kendrick mostly. Cotillard (for Public Enemies) & Weisz on the bubble.
Picture: 8 agreed-upon as front (not in order, but paired up logically) Up/Hurt, Education/Precious (femfest), Up in Air/Serious Man (menfest), Invictus/Nine. The four most in the mix are A Single Man, Avatar, The Lovely Bones, and Bright Star. 4 each are out, unseen, and seen only at fests.
Director: Reitman, Marshall, Eastwood, Bigelow on top.
Scherfig, Daniels, Cameron, Campion, Jackson close. Ford rounds it out. One mentions the outside outside possibility of Docter, which would be cool but nigh impossible; odd that Coens aren’t spoken of as much as their movie. Interestingly, of the 4 on top, we have what would be the youngest multiple nominee ever and the oldest nominee ever. The 4th woman nominated would also be the first woman nom’d who didn’t write her movie.
Saw the vid of Dave Karger interviewing Carey Mulligan about An Education and she seems like a very sweet young lady. Her buzz has been around for awhile which helps. Can’t wait to see the movie.
There seems to be alot of young ladies getting buzz. I’m more curious about Gabourney Sidibe more than anyone else. It’s definitley gonna be a breakthrough role for her.
From the looks of it, it seems Supporting Actor is going to take the award for most boring category of the year. Guess my money will be on Christoph Waltz.
Good work, as always, j.
I have it on good authority that The Road is one of the best movies of the year.
No proof. Just the word of a trusted friend with excellent taste who’s seen it. Thought I’d throw that out there so we don’t start narrowing the field too soon.
its looking like a good year, what if inglorious only kept up buzz and won the whole thing, the acting all around is fantastic, truely, id love to see fassbender, pitt, waltz, laurent, and even bruhl get a nom. great movie, will be remembered for a long time
Inglourious Basterds is the 15th highest grossing movie worldwide this year (18th, domestic). Aside from Up, what other movie making this much money stands even a remote chance at BP?
(Star Trek, maybe. But a multi-sequel TV-based franchise? Loved it, but you won’t need a phaser to stun me if its nominated.)
I would LOVE to see Inglourious Basterds get nominated (and maybe win?) Thus far it’s my #1 film of the year, and it set’s the bar very high. It’s safe to assume Christoph Waltz has a nomination in the bag, but I’d be thrilled to see Melanie Laurent get a nomination for her work which i think was the true standout of the film.
I’d like to thank Stephen Holt for mentioning Tilda in JULIA. I am shocked she isn’t even turning up on any possibilities lists.
Also, ruling out THE ROAD this early is a mistake. It’s amazing and could easily be nominated if handled correctly.
As I said before, having multiple young actresses nominated may help Meryl. Those young upcoming newbies may split young-cute vote or the Anti-Meryl vote and Meryl could end up winning..And I wouldnt have any problem with that!
Someone upthread asked about T10’s; according to criticstop10, The Reader (40th) made it in instead of the T2, Wall-E & Dark Knight.
07, Atonement/Michael Clayton> Zodiac, Diving Bell, & Ratatouille.
06, Babel>United 93 & Pan’s Labyrinth.
05, all were in T10; un-nommed History of Violence #2.
04, Ray>Eternal Sunshine, Incredibles, Before Sunset, Kill Bill 2.
Others eyeballing on MC’s T10 critics’ lists:
03, Seabiscuit>American Splendor, Capturing the Friedmans, Nemo.
02, T6 are Far From Heaven, Y Tu Mama Tambien, Talk to Her, About Schmidt, Adaptation, Spirited Away. None were nommed.
01, films not called In the Bedroom>Mulholland Drive, In the Mood for Love, Ghost World, and Shrek.
00, Gladiator/Erin/Billy>You Can Count, Chicken Run, Almost Famous.
I suppose all those snubbed would have had better chances with 10 nominees, though a lot I think still wouldn’t have gotten a nom esp foreigns/docs/animated. 4 Pixar films in the last 6 years near the top and snubbed in favor of other projects, & the Academy likes Daldry so much more than critics
I should really start writing a paper and translating Latin instead of being online…
@ 39
i’ve actually seen precious and up in the air. both are brilliant, up in the air in particular is etched at #1 on my list and i think it might be hard to find a rival…
as for the lovely bones. i read the book. i can’t stress how mediocre and run-of-the-mill it is.
oh and from way up there, if any movie is DOR, it’s agora. it got trashed left and right at toronto.
@ Sasha you obviously liked Julie and Julia for whatever I feel that’s a personal pick for you and not an objective of a serious contender.
I really liked The Hangover but I know there’s no shot in hell for an Oscar nomination. We all know Julie and Julia is Meryl’s nomination & maybe Art Direction if there’s another chance for a nom.
I’ve found this a very underwhelming year for movies, though Up was a complete delight, and most of Julie and Julia was very good. Hardly Streep’s best work, but she captured Julia Child very well and will probably get an Oscar nomination.
As for what’s coming up:
I wouldn’t count out The Road, particularly for Mortensen’s performance and perhaps some technical awards.
I would count out The Avatar (except for technical awards). I think the Academy is still kicking themselves over Titanic.
I’m still on the fence about Lovely Bones. Like The Road, the book has many, many passionate fans who will go see the movie in any case. The kids seem very well cast (Saoirse Ronan looks to continue her winning streak). The trailer for The Lovely Bones generally captured the events of the book…still, it just felt wrong.
I saw The Informant last week and agree Damon is pretty close to a lock. The script is also more clever than you realize on a first viewing.
I look forward to seeing Nine, A Single Man and The Tempest.
The Academy is still kicking themselves over “Titanic?” Why in the world would they be doing that? It’s a wonderful film that is still very much loved, and I doubt they see it as any kind of misstep (especially over other films much more lambasted nowadays). That’s a silly statement.
I don’t recall people thinking The Departed was a slam dunk no-brainer. I do remember people thinking it was too pop and silly (Jack’s giant dildo for example). But then the wave of support started and it never stopped.
I just read that China passed on “City of Life and Death” (came in 2nd place at TIFF with the most positive reviews by critics out of the festival), and have, instead, submitted “Forever Enthralled” for Foreign Language consideration. In a seemingly endless, exhausting output of uninspired biopics, China has stepped up with it’s own mildly adequate paean to a famous person (in this case, a 1920’s singer, played by Zhang Yiyi). Honestly, I was hoping that Todd Haynes brilliant and iconoclastic, “I’m Not There” was going to be the final nail in the coffin of this made-by-rote genre. No such luck! Which leads me to respond to the quote (above) from Joe Morgenstern in which he lauds Anne Fontaine’s “restrained” direction in “Coco Avant Chanel”. Restrained, Joe? How about nonexistant. Fontaine has never been a good director, and she doesn’t disappoint here. In regards to biopics, I am not suggesting that they stop being made (because there are some very good ones: “I’m Not There”, “Capote”, “Quills”), but if they are going to be produced I would like them to say/express something other than being a Cole’s Note on someone’s life.
I corrected the mispelling of “paean” with the edit option but it seems it didn’t take (I hate that). Now there would be an interesting biographical film who’s subject could be a notorious bad speller. I wonder if Anne Fontaine would be interested? Hold on a minute: your editor just corrected it. Wow…never heard of delayed correction before (kind of like the delayed direction of Anne Fontaine) “Restrained”….good grief, Joe!
Here is that critics poll I mentioned above detailing the best reviewed films at the festival:
TIFF 2009 Survey Results
BEST NARRATIVE FILM
1. A Serious Man, directed by Joel and Ethan Coen (63 points)
2. City of Life and Death, directed by Chuan Lu (20)
3. Up In The Air, directed by Jason Reitman (18)
3. A Prophet, directed by Jacques Audiard (18)
5. Dogtooth, directed by Giorgos Lanthimos (17)
6. Precious, directed by Lee Daniels (16)
7. I Am Love, directed by Luca Guadagnino (11)
7. Hadewijch, directed by Bruno Dumont (11)
7. A Single Man, directed by Tom Ford (11)
7. Lebanon, directed by Samuel Maoz (11)
It would be nice to see some of these get mentioned a little bit more at AD instead of the usual suspects. I, for one, am holding out hope that “A Prophet” will cross over from Foreign Language to Best Picture (from my mouth to God’s, Santa’s, and the Easter Bunny’s ears).
I hate to say it because I’ve spent some of the best times of my life in Canada…
It’s a great country….
But one thing I do know is that the Academy…well, it doesn’t take into account how well a film like “Bright Star” is doing in Canada…It should. But it doesn’t..
Canadians have great taste and are better educated and LOVE their great film festivals. You can’t even get a ticket to a film in Toronto if you’re an ordinary person. So I’m told…
#39 “But it sounds like you’re reaallllyyy against the film before it’s remotely close to being released.”
Didn`t like the book at all and it pisses me off that people call it Next Heavenly Creatures. Blasphemy! HC was a great movie because Jackson&Walsh told the story with strong characters without focusing on all kinds of emotional manipulation (slomo, close-ups, fake tears). In fact, it wasn`t manipulative at all.
But now they have Boyens on board and that one…phew,where to start? Does she write script like “page 3, _____dies in slo-mo. Close-up of ________with fake tears. Page 13 _________jump on ________ bed in slo mo. Page 25_____runs in slomo, closup of face with fake tears. Page 33 _____dies in slo-mo for 4 minutes<etc"? And the book itself is such a manipulative fanfic.
" I’m just being optmistic about that film’s chances, AND ‘predicting’ what may happen with it; knowing the pedigree.
It was hyped the frontrunner ever since it was announced. can`t say it doesn`t please me to see competition is getting strong including inside of the house (Paramount).
"Have you seen Precious and Up in the Air to substantiate your too-sure feelings of it’s success box-office wise AND Oscar noms-wise?"
I haven`t seen them but they have people worth rooting for in it. Like George, Anna, Mo`nique, Gabby. OTOH, LB has only Stanley for me and nobody else. Ronesme is ridiculously overrated since Atonement where she was yet another creepy bad seed and when it comes to child actors, Lena Leandersson (LOTROI) and Isabel Fuhrman (the orphan) kicked the shit out of her. She simply doesn`t measure up acting-wise and when it comes to the looks, Emma Watson smokes her. Oh, yes, winning streak. Hm, City of Amber tanked. So much for wins. Sarandon is everyone`s favorite leftie who got all the lovin` because she`s leftie. Weisz is a nice lady but this role is crap and Mark I like but this role is blah too. So everyhting looks better and more interesting than fanfic ramblings from paradise.
“Sarandon is everyone`s favorite leftie who got all the lovin` because she`s leftie.”
What a stupid, ill-informed statement. When Sarandon and Robbins (the first celebrities to wear the AIDS ribbons on television) mentioned the plight of Haitians with AIDS at the academy awards, they were banished from the ceremony (for four years) until Sarandon’s win for “Dead Man Walking”. Her and Robbins were also disinvited to the more recent ceremony honouring the anniversary of “Bull Durham”, because of their out-spoken dissent of the Iraq war. So statements like “everyione’s favorite leftie” really makes me want to wretch. If Hollywood was so “leftie loving” why didn’t “Brokeback Mountain” win?
I have a feeling that District 9 and Julie & Julia will get the shaft.
I have a suspicion that Avatar, Amelia and Invictus won’t be as strong as people hope they’ll be. I mean, where’s the fricking preview to Invictus? And so, here are my picks:
Nine (actors, actors, actors)
Precious (the most downbeat feel-good filim of the year)
Up in the Air (good word of mouth from Toronto)
Bright Star (period piece by Jane Campion? Excellent!)
Hurt Locker (if one film from the summer gets chosen, this is the most likely)
An Education (Carey Mulligan’s star-making performance will seal the deal)
A Serious Man (Coens make their most personal film?)
A Single Man (follows in the footsteps of Brokeback and Milk)
Inglorious Basterds (plenty of Tarantino fans)
Where the Wild things are (risky pick, but early word of mouth has been either good or glowing)
But we will just have to wait and see.
It’s still a little early to come up with the Best Picture contenders, since strong fare sometimes comes out in November and December. This is how I see it: such films as Nine and The Lovely Bones show potential; based on what I’ve read so far, A Serious Man and Precious look strong, along with The Hurt Locker. Based on what I’ve seen so far this year, I would submit: Star Trek (2009) and District 9. That’s all for now.
@Michael LOL you don’t need to put the date next to Star Trek I doubt anyone is going to think you’re talking about any of the other Star Trek films except the one released this year.
I’d also like to mention Michael Caine’s brilliant performance in the Brit Indie “Harry Brown” which I thought was a total career-capper and an Oscar seeker.
He’s an old age pensioner in a violent housing project in the East End of London who turns into a Dirty Harry or Gran Torino type vigilante.
Caine is magnificent. He’s never won a Best Actor award. Both his Oscars were for Supporting. Never rule out Michael Caine for anything. He’s beloved.
And Emily Mortimer is pretty damn good as the cop who tries to find out who’s doing all these savage killings of druggies and their ilk.
Everybody here is seriously underestimating It’s Complicated.
I expect both A Single Man and A Serious Man to get best pic noms so that the host can make a funny joke about how the titles are similar! The Academy likes to work in those kind of joke opportunities every year.
From the films I’ve seen recently, I would put An Education and A Single Man on my top 10 list. I really liked Up in the Air but I’m not sure yet if I’ll put it on my list, though it will surely make the Academy’s for lack of competition. I haven’t seen Precious yet.
I’m waving the flag for Wild Things, Up, and District 9. For once in a while, can’t we do something different? You add five more slots to diversify the palate and people just want to continue adding on the stiffs. I can’t judge any of these front runners at all but having seen the trailers at least, to single out An Education, it screams Oscar bait and nothing else!
Up and District 9 were honest to God great movies (OK, Up was very good but not WALL-E) and both are more than deserving to be hailed as the best pictures of the year. Wild Things we’ll know more about in the coming weeks but if the soundtrack and the previews are evidence of anything, it’s that Spike has knocked the film out of the park.
Given the fact that one half of the Best Pictures will catch a prestigeous Director nomination and the second half won’t, JULIE & JULIA is sooooo into this Oscar race!
Best Picture
Best Adapt. Screenplay (don’t laugh: two books = one script)
Best Actress
Best Art Direction
That’s more nominations that most of the Best Picture nominees received prior 1942.
I just saw Bright Star and really liked it. I think it has a serious shot at a Best Picture nom. It was also one of the most beautifully shot film I’ve ever seen and costumes were exquisite. Cornish is wonderful and Wishaw also does a convincing job as Keats. Campion has a directorial touch that is very unique – even though I have not seen the Chanel film, I believe that Bright Star is the superior film. Ok – it’s a tad long, but most period films are. I also think it may hurt the Chanel film that it was just made as a Lifetime movie.
I don’t think ‘Bright Star’ was necessarily long, it’s like an hour and 52 minutes when the credits start rolling (and Whishaw delivers Keats words).
But yeah, it felt a little stale in parts here & there. Overall, I really, really liked it; and see prospects for multiple nominations. Though, probably no more than 6 or so, even if it goes over BIG with the Academy. I hope it does.
Bright Star was pretty good. You have the Abbie Cornish with a Top 3 performance (for the ladies). Ben Whishaw won’t be nominated but is pretty good also. Here’s hoping Paul Schneider sneaks in for Supporting.
Bright Star nominations: L. Actress, Cin, Cost Des, Or. Score
And “Avatar” fAWGEDABOWDIT.
I saw 20 minutes of it in a preview situation and it was just AWFUL. Another 3D cartoon extravaganza. It was so flat I thought it was 2D.
And the Academy(mostly actors) DOES NOT like cartoons.
What the hell did you all see in The Hurt Locker? I think it’s a good movie, but so overrated by American critics. It wouldn’t be in my Top Ten at all.
I love Bright Star. After hearing the reviews about Cornish’s performance, my expectations were high, and she far exceeded my expectations. I find myself comparing Cornish in Bright Star to Keira Knightley in Pride and Prejudice, and although I am a fan of Keira, Cornish’s performance is so more moving and lovely. I really hope she gets a nomination, even if the film itself doesn’t.
Ditto on taptup’s feelings about ‘Hurt Locker’.
I found it to be good, a little slow, well acted & cliched. A good 7.5-8/10.
All this hoopla, I just don’t get it.
Well everyone can’t agree about every film. How boring it would all be if so. What movie do you think ought to be the one everyone is raving about?
Don’t get me wrong; it’s great that you love it. I just don’t see the “quality” of a Best Picture winner in it
I’m from Spain and we’ll have to wait four or five months to see every anticipated movie of 2009, so I still can’t tell you about THAT movie. But I’m pretty sure The Hurt Locker won’t be in my Top Ten.
The English language movie I liked the most so far is Public Enemies, but I realize it’s not in the race.
“What movie do you think ought to be the one everyone is raving about?”
I know you didn’t ask me, but I’m with those who find The Hurt Locker horrendously overrated. Bright Star deserves to be the film getting the praise and the buzz, Campion far more than Bigelow.
@ Robert, 35:
As for David Poland announcing “Bright Star” DOR, I’d like to offer this blurb from the most recent edition of Entertainment Weekly: “Jane Campion’s festival favorite got even brighter in its second weekend, jumping a massive 254 percent to score the second-highest per-screen average in the top 20.”
It’s the 8th highest out of 20 now by that measure, and it’s in the second smallest number of theatres, after Paranormal Activity. i.e. If it were in a huge number of theatres, it’d most likely be in the bottom 5 of the same 20. This is discouraging box office performance and Poland, no matter what you think of him, is reporting it pretty accurately at this point.
Why does this have to be all about numbers? I know the Oscar race and predictions can sometimes be so mathematical, because it’s hard to ignore that box office number’s matter, but how much does it matter, really? If we went with that logic all the time, then The Dark Knight should have been nominated.
Also, maybe small films like Bright Star only need to build up momentum.
If Juli e& Julia is on there, there’s no reason why Nine and The Lovely Bones shouldn’t. I think we’re giving up on TLB, and its potential for Best Pic nominee. I see it nominated for Best Adapted, Actress (Weisz), Supoorting (Walberg, Surrandon or Ronan). Was it the trailer that suddenly swayed the votes? I read the book and it looks beautiful in my eyes. I’d rather see that than District 9. The rest I’m not sure about, maybe in a month I’ll have a better idea. Some of those films I only know about.
There’s so many animated films out for consideration, not for Best Pic, but for animated. For this year they should have 5 slots. Coraline, Up, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, 9, A Christmas Carol (they nominated Polar Express)..I think that’s it.
“I think we’re giving up on TLB, and its potential for Best Pic nominee. I see it nominated for Best Adapted, Actress (Weisz), Supoorting (Walberg, Surrandon or Ronan). Was it the trailer that suddenly swayed the votes? I read the book and it looks beautiful in my eyes.”
The screenplay adds flourish and fixes flaws in the novel. The screenplay improves on the novel.
This decade’s smaller pre-Oscar-nom box offices:
2.5 mil Letters from Iwo Jima, 8 mil The Reader, 8.5 mil Million Dollar Baby, 9 mil Pianist/There Will Be Blood
Since the # of nominees has doubled, many want the movies with bigger box office to be able to get in when they couldn’t before. But to be fair it should also work the other way around; smaller #’s should be more acceptable too. It has right now about 2 mil.
“I should really start writing a paper and translating Latin instead of being online…”
Always great comments, j.
You’re the Nate Silver of Awards Daily.
Eddie, “The Polar Express” actually was not nominated. Nominees that year were “The Incredibles” (winner), “Shrek 2,” and “Shark Tale” (blech).
#82 “The screenplay adds flourish and fixes flaws in the novel. The screenplay improves on the novel.”
But it won`t win. Other movies simply look better. Other actors and especially actresses look way better.
Right, that is if you are going to go by box office. Raise your hand if you thought Bright Star would be a blockbuster? Awards heat will help it but it isn’t like Jane Campion movies are going to draw the same kind of numbers as The Hangover or even 500 Days of Summer. That’s why the Oscar race matters; it isn’t about necessarily rewarding the money-makers but about finding the year’s ten best films. And that is where the label “DOR” is fundamentally misguided.
If the race for Best Actress boils down to Mulligan vs. Streep, I have to say that I wouldn’t feel bad if Mulligan won. She’s that incandescent in An Education. Usually I don’t like it when someone so new and young wins. But if the press plays up that as the battle, Streep will probably get a lot more sympathy because she’s been nominated so many times.
As of today I see the race as:
BP: UITA vs Presh with possible blockbuster upset if Avatar or WTWTA go TDK (money + raves),not TF2 (money + shit-on)
BD = Reitman vs Daniels with possible female upset by Bigelow or blockbuster upset by Cameron and Jonze
Best Adapted= UITA vs Presh (game over less WTWTA is so huge it obliterates everything but New Moon)
Best Actor: Gorgeous George vs everyone else (Colin, Jeremy, Viggo).
Best Actress: La Streep vs La Newbies (Mulligan and Sidibe). Nobody else unless Mother and Child get a release and Annette gets in. Swank is not winning. There. Game over. Third`s not the charm.
Best Supporting Actress: Mo`nique. Da winnah. The rest should thank AMPAS for the opportunity to chat with Seacrest on the red carpet. Moore, Kendrick and two other filler spots.But Kendrick will talk Eclipse and Breaking Dawn so all is good.
Best Supporting Actor: Waltz. See above. Seacrest,etc.
Best Score and Song: New Moon, la duh! It was the best last year and it`ll be the best this year. They can`t snub it twice.
The Natural, ah, that’s right. I remember them being nominated for something.
Best Animated Feature nods as of right now; Up, Ponyo, Coraline/Princess and the Frog?
THE HURT LOCKER: IT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!…specially SPECIALLY not Jeremy Renner…I wish people would stop it because the bitching about it come February will become bigger and bigger, be realistic and stop thinking about it now…
I think Katherine Bigelow might still be a possibility, but when and if Nine, Lovely Bones, Avatar succeed, Bigelow will be a long shot when she’s in a list with Marshall, Coens, Jackson, Daniels, Cameron, Reitman, Tarantino, and her biggest competition since she’s the other woman and that’s just the way things are: Campion and the An Education lady.
The Hurt Locker opened WAY too early…probably because they were realistic and thought it would not get any Oscar chances…
And Renner is in an even worst situation…half of the predicted men will have to fail in their movies for Renner to even have a shot.
It’s a good movie, but way overrated.
Renner, Bigelow and HL are happening because they haven`t been forgotten. The buzz is still strong and it`s already October.
“Renner, Bigelow and HL are happening because they haven`t been forgotten. The buzz is still strong and it`s already October.”
Another sacrasanct thought from Kreskin. Maybe they will get the votes of the Susan Sarandon leftie lovers.
Renner has received two breakthrough awards from film festivals already. Bigelow received the best director award from HFF, and also the Gotham Tribute.
I’d say Hurt Locker is alive and well, and building buzz at the moment.
Ladylurks, I have no doubts about The Hurt Lockers potential. I’m just miffed when Bambo (or Bambi, Bimbo, whatever), makes idiotic comments like she did above in regards to Sarandon. I’m sick of generic statements made by people raised on Fox News parading their right-wing talking points and their intellectual laziness. Moronic brain farts like hers/his need to be stomped on.
UncleVanya, unlike you, I don`t insult other posters and never will although you offended me deeply. Sarandon isn`t your mother or sister to justify personal attacks and if I knew she was, I certainly wouldn`t discuss her. Just my two cents.
Boohoo!
[...] This post was written by Sasha Stone and originally appeared at AwardsDaily.com [...]
Oh my fuckin gah
Not a single mention of Tilda Swinton!
I hope Sir Roger Ebert keeps bringing up her name and gives his full support all the way through.
Hmpf!
Witherspoon and Paltrow both have Oscars Best Actress trophies
while the great duo, Blanchett and Swinton (probably the two of the greatest actresses who ever lived), got Supporting trophies only?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Somethin is definitely fuckin wrong here!
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