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Best Feature Animation expands to 5 nominees?

Posted by Ryan Adams On October - 10 - 2009

coraline5

Back in May, we wondered if there would be enough animated movies this year to justify the Academy widening the number of nominees from 3 to 5. We assembled a list 16 titles — apparently the magic number needed to trigger the expansion. Over the past couple of days, it’s been noted that we may have officially crossed that threshold.

With only a couple of revisions from our May 20th list, I think these might be this year’s qualifying Feature Animation contenders:

  • 9
  • Astro Boy
  • Battle for Terra
  • A Christmas Carol
  • Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
  • Coraline
  • Evangelion 1.0: You Are (Not) Alone
  • The Fantastic Mr. Fox
  • Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
  • Mary and Max
  • Monsters Vs. Aliens
  • Planet 51
  • Ponyo
  • The Princess and the Frog
  • Tinker Bell and the Lost Treasure
  • Up

With the possibility of broadened horizons on the animation front, the 16 movies above comprise a group that we can handily weigh for awards potential. I’ve highlighted seven — five that already look strong, and three more I have hopes for.  What subset would you select for 5 ideal nominees?

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    57 Responses for "Best Feature Animation expands to 5 nominees?"

    1. Academy Awards Guru October 10th, 2009 at 10:39 am 1

      “we wondered if there would be enough animated movies this year to justify the Academy widening the number of nominees from 5 to 10.”

      Sorry Ryan, but is “from 3 to 5″, not “5 to 10″.

      And about the documentary short-list, it was for Shot-Subject, not Feature.

    2. Adam M. October 10th, 2009 at 10:45 am 2

      The doc short-list is for SHORT docs. But I can see where the confusion would come from: it’s a Doc Short Short List!

    3. Ryan Adams October 10th, 2009 at 10:47 am 3

      der, thanks Guru and Adam M.

    4. VHS October 10th, 2009 at 10:50 am 4

      I think the nominees will be:

      Coraline
      The Fantastic Mr. Fox
      Ponyo On The Cliff
      The Princess And The Frog
      Up

    5. Kevin Klawitter October 10th, 2009 at 10:50 am 5

      Why no love for “A Christmas Carol”? I’m really excited for that one.

    6. Dan October 10th, 2009 at 10:59 am 6

      A special documentary list of shot subjects could be interesting – I’m pretty sure there are films about people shot in war, in school, in gang related incidents, in horseplay – just, not all this year. What the hell, I can see a whole retrospective on shot subjects.

    7. John October 10th, 2009 at 11:03 am 7

      I don’t see how Ice Age has a better chance than Ponyo. Monsters v. Aliens and A Christmas Carol both have better shots than Ice Age as well.

    8. rmp October 10th, 2009 at 11:04 am 8

      Why is Ponyo not among the bolded? Miyazaki’s movies have always been nominated in the past, and there is no reason to believe Ponyo would be an exception, particularly if the category is to be expanded.

      I can’t imagine 9, Ice Age 3, or The Princess and the Frog being nominated over Ponyo.

    9. Kevin Klawitter October 10th, 2009 at 11:05 am 9

      Yeah! No “Ponyo”, no “A Christmas Carol”, but you DO have “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs” and “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs” on there? What are your priorities, man?

    10. Ryan October 10th, 2009 at 11:20 am 10

      Also have to agree with most on Ponyo. Ice Age and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs over Ponyo? No way. Ponyo is even on the Oscar tracker on the right, haha. I don’t buy that box office always rules the category either. Even though Spirited Away was better, it was nominated and won with less box office revenue.

    11. Ryan Adams October 10th, 2009 at 11:27 am 11

      Ice Age and Meatballs are the least of my personal highlighted favorites, but I liked them both better than Ponyo, sorry. My inner 4-year-old would have flushed Ponyo ’round about the 2nd time she spit in my face. The chirpy preachiness wore me out. Ponyo is watered-down Miyazaki-Lite.

      I had high hopes for A Christmas Carol as a concept months ago, but the more I see of it, the lower those hopes sink.

      Ice Age is the #2 highest-grossing movie of 2009, earning $874 mil worldwide. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs is one of the most visually inventive animated movies of the past few years.

    12. Ryan Adams October 10th, 2009 at 11:30 am 12

      Ponyo is even on the Oscar tracker on the right, haha.

      The Contender Tracker is Sasha’s opinion. This post is my opinion.

    13. mB October 10th, 2009 at 11:34 am 13

      Hm, let’s see:

      Ponyo
      Coraline
      Up

      (and should there be 5 nominees after all, I’d add):

      The Princess and the Frog
      Mary & Max (cause I’m hoping for a surprise nominee)

    14. Free October 10th, 2009 at 11:55 am 14

      Yeah hate to add on, but Ponyo is in. And I know some people really want 5 nominees, but even if 16 makes that a possibility, there are barely five good animated features this year. Most of these aren’t that good at all.

      I think it should be 3 nominees: “Coraline,” “Ponyo,” and “Up,” unless THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG turns out great (which I’m hoping for, being that I love classic Disney drawings, and I’m excited for their first black protagonist).

      So if PRINCESS turns out well, I say add that and “9″ and call it a day. Don’t put ICE AGE or MONSTERS VS. ALIENS within spitting distance of the Oscars if you can avoid it.

    15. Ryan Adams October 10th, 2009 at 11:56 am 15

      ok, to be honest I didn’t know a thing about Mary & Max until this morning, and mB, your comment made me go look for the trailer. I’ll add it to my personal choices of highlighted movies I’m hoping will surprise us.

    16. Nyc Oscar Buff October 10th, 2009 at 11:56 am 16

      When is Mary and Max getting released? (I didn’t hear about that)

      9 is a bit over-rated.

      Cloudy – a welcoming surprise for critics and boxoffice

      Up – The winner

      Coraline – The possible runner up

      Fanastic Mr. Fox – i think the slight box office is gonna hurt it.

      A Christmas Carol – The wildcard.

      MvsA, Astro Boy, Battle for Terra, Evangelion, Tinker Bell – Not in the running.

      Ice Age – The huge worldwide box office might get it pushed in.

      Princess and the Frog – How does Disney’s return to Classic Disney not get nominated???

    17. Ryan Adams October 10th, 2009 at 12:00 pm 17

      Coraline – The possible runner up

      My personal #1 favorite animated movie of the year. I had actual dreams involving Coraline the week after I saw it.

    18. Noah October 10th, 2009 at 12:29 pm 18

      To me, Coraline deserves a BP nod, but I think I’m in the minority.

    19. Swartzwelder October 10th, 2009 at 12:31 pm 19

      Five animation nominees would be wonderful. If only they would expand visual effects to five, as well.

    20. Erik Beck October 10th, 2009 at 12:40 pm 20

      For those of you who think Christmas Carol might get in – try to remember that Polar Express was passed over for Shark Tale and Beowulf was passed over for Surf’s Up. The Academy (and me as well) just don’t like the Zemeckis creepy motion capture films.

    21. D/N October 10th, 2009 at 12:46 pm 21

      I can’t even remotely understand people who think that The Princess and the Frog should be outside of the top 5 right now. Unless the movie is an absolute dud, there is no chance in hell that the Academy won’t nominated the return to classic Disney.

      And Ice Age? Planet 51 has a better chance of getting nominated than Ice Age does. Any votes that might have possibly gone its way will end up going to Cloudy, since, y’know, people actually liked that film.

      9 is dead in the water. It’s been out for a month and it’s already been forgotten, and Focus has absolutely no reason to push it for a nod when they’ve already got Coraline.

    22. D/N October 10th, 2009 at 1:02 pm 22

      And just to expand a bit, I just don’t think that the box office argument for Ice Age holds any water, espcially considering that Surf’s Up (worldwide $150 million) and Persepolis got nominated over Shrek the Third (worldwide $800 million), The Simpsons Movie ($530 million), and Bee Movie ($370 million).

    23. OrsonKane October 10th, 2009 at 1:02 pm 23

      Up
      Coraline
      Ponyo
      The Fantastic Mr. Fox
      Mary and Max

    24. John October 10th, 2009 at 1:10 pm 24

      my predict is same as VHS:

      UP
      PONYO
      CORALINE
      PRINCESS AND FROG
      FANTASTIC MR. FOX

    25. ZiZo Abul Hawa October 10th, 2009 at 1:22 pm 25

      Well I think the 5 nominees will be:

      Up (Lock)
      Coraline (Lock)
      Ponyo (Lock)
      The Princess and the Frog
      Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

    26. Nick K. October 10th, 2009 at 2:03 pm 26

      Ever since I heard about it months ago, I’ve been itching to catch Mary and Max in the U.S. Too bad it’s only showing in L.A. I’ll definitely rent it on DVD.

      My ideal pick of the five would be:

      Coraline
      Fantastic Mr. Fox
      Mary and Max
      Ponyo
      Up

      This would be the list that shows the Academy gaining a more mature attitude towards animation. But let’s get real:

      Coraline
      Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
      Princess and the Frog
      Ponyo
      Up

      And Ryan, I can see where you’re coming from on Ponyo. But I think it has it’s fair share of enchanting moments (the opening shot, Ponyo running on the waves)

    27. dan October 10th, 2009 at 2:26 pm 27

      I agree, Coraline was far and away the best animated feature so far.

    28. Noah R. October 10th, 2009 at 2:30 pm 28

      I’ll be pissed if Ice Age 3 is nominated and Ponyo isn’t. Miyazaki is a marvelous storyteller; the guys who make the Ice Age movies couldn’t spin together a half-decent narrative if their lives depended on it. It’s not as good as Spirited Away, granted, but even Miyazaki-lite is better than anything Dreamworks have ever done in the animated field. Period.

    29. Nick K. October 10th, 2009 at 2:30 pm 29

      Now here’s a question that will probably spark plenty of debate:

      Does Avatar count as an animated feature?

      Animated films are qualified for nomination only if over 70% is animated. And I think that may be the case for Avatar. What do you guys think?

    30. Travis October 10th, 2009 at 2:55 pm 30

      1. Up
      2. Coraline
      3. The Princess & the Frog
      4. Ponyo
      5. Fantastic Mr. Fox

      6. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
      7. Ice Age 3
      8. 9
      9. Monsters Vs. Aliens
      10. Max & Mary

    31. Craig October 10th, 2009 at 3:26 pm 31

      I think we may have a problem, and its name is Evangelion.

      Evangelion 1.0 came out in Japan in September 2007. The Academy doesn’t qualify films more than two years old (for a film first screened outside L.A., it must have debuted by January 1, 2008). Unless, Funimation can find some way for the Academy to reconsider. (Academy rules state, perhaps vaguely, “Except as indicated above”)

      See here to see what I’m talking about:
      http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/rule07.html

      Meanwhile, I saw somewhere that the Antonio Banderas produced “Missing Linx” will get a qualifying run soon. So, this might take the spot.

      I think that two others might be the French films Idiots and Angels, and A Town Called Panic. If their companies can get them to run in L.A., we’ll have some buffers to prevent a situation like in 2006.

    32. Kay October 10th, 2009 at 3:37 pm 32

      I really hope Coraline gets nominated.

    33. Cliff October 10th, 2009 at 3:47 pm 33

      Has anyone heard anything from the Academy on expanding the selection to 5 nominees? On top of the Evangelion factor, from the looks of it, I don’t think Tinkerbell got U.S. theatrical treatment of any kind.

      Regardless of 3 or 5 nominees, though, I have to join the chorus and say that Ponyo looks close to a lock. I went to the Miyazaki tribute earlier this summer at the Sam Goldwyn Theater, and I’ve seldom seen that place COMPLETELY packed, but it was, and my head was spinning with all the animation luminaries there. I have to think that 9 or Monsters vs. Aliens has the upper hand for the 5th spot right now; one has inventiveness, the other has box office and general likeability. Right now I’d say

      Up
      The Princess & the Frog
      Ponyo
      Coraline
      Monsters vs. Aliens

    34. Craig October 10th, 2009 at 3:53 pm 34

      I did read that Tinkerbell was given, or will be given a qualifying run soon.

      Source is here:

      http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/season/2009/10/another-oscar-category-may-increase-number-of-nominees-by-pete-hammond.html

      OK, actually. Its more like will be getting a run soon.

    35. Ricky October 10th, 2009 at 4:06 pm 35

      I don’t believe “Christmas Carol” will be subimtted as an Animated Feature, nor may it even qualify. It’s motion-capture. “Beowulf” was also not submitted for these reasons, as Zemeckis himself said, “it’s not animation.” So you may want to cross that one from the list.

    36. Craig October 10th, 2009 at 4:11 pm 36

      Objection!

      Beowulf qualified on the Oscars short list.
      http://movies.about.com/od/awards/a/animated111607.htm

      So did the Polar Express:
      http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/2005/oscars/notepad/041104_pr.html

      If I want to talk about what makes A Christmas Carol
      animation, that requires a whole new post.

    37. Bill October 10th, 2009 at 4:34 pm 37

      you can cut 9 from that list, it was an awful awful movie

    38. rmp October 10th, 2009 at 5:25 pm 38

      “Miyazaki-lite” is still better than most anything out there.

      Ponyo is the most breathtakingly beautiful animated film of the year, period (even more-so than Up, which I liked better overall). The subtleties in his animation are just beautiful. Just watch the first time that Sosuke goes down to the sea, kicks his boots off and tip-toes into the water–truly a beautifully observed, and detailed shot.

      Though it isn’t Spirited Away or My Neighbor Totoro, calling Ponyo watered down seems a little foolish. He certainly isn’t afraid of subtly conveying real human emotions and relationships, such as that between Sosuke’s parents, that your 4-year-old self couldn’t even begin to understand.

      Furthermore, the film was widely praised by critics (it’s at 91% on RT). It’s just too hard to ignore. It seems like there’s a certain point when you have to put aside your personal bias and recognize a film that more than likely will be nominated for an Oscar. Whether you enjoyed the film or not, I would be surprised if you really believe that it doesn’t deserve to be nominated over some of the much lighter (and “watered down”) fare that you did highlight.

    39. dlen October 10th, 2009 at 5:34 pm 39

      I saw Astroboy earlier in the week and while not a bad film it’s nothing special in the way of animation or story. Nor does it live up to my memories of the animated series from the early 80s.

      I also wasn’t enchanted by Ponyo. There were some wonderful visuals but I didn’t feel like I had seen something special.

      It would be good to see Mary and Max get in (Adam Elliot had Oscar form for Harvie Krumpet).

      And surely a film that uses 3D has to make it? UP would be most likely but that is not exactly a film that requires 3D; I saw it in 2D (as most reviews said to)and loved it just the same. Like Ebert, I’m not a fan of 3D.

    40. Bill S. October 10th, 2009 at 6:10 pm 40

      Glad you mentioned 9 on your list — I was beginning to think I was the only person who actually really liked that movie.

      Having said that, my list is:
      Up
      Coraline
      The Princess and the Frog
      Ponyo

      and some random fifth I haven’t decided on.

    41. Ryan Adams October 10th, 2009 at 6:50 pm 41

      @ rmp, and other Ponyo fans

      I’m happy you guys liked Ponyo. I liked it ok, but it didn’t move me, didn’t excite me, and didn’t amuse me.

      I try to read nearly every comment you guys ever write. It’s certainly no secret that most of you — and most critics — got something out of Ponyo that eludes me. I could save myself a lot of aggravation and nagging if I pretended to like Ponyo. It’s no extra effort to put Ponyo in bold. But I’m not going to lie and say I loved it just for the sake of fitting it.

      I’m not a wall-to-wall Red Carpet guy. Not every post I write is always going to hinge on what I think the Academy will do. I actually don’t care very much what the Academy will do. I’m fine with playing the guessing game most of the time — but not all the time. Sometimes I take a break from wondering what 5000 strange strangers might vote for, to simply state for the record what I like. Personal opinion, alright?

      Ponyo’s animation was very pretty; the story was all over the place. It seemed to want to teach us a lesson about ecology or responsible stewardship of the oceans and planet, and yet Ponyo’s only goal throughout the movie was to escape her natural habitat, mutate her DNA, and be human. Because she really enjoyed ham sandwiches and had an interspecies crush on a 5-year-old. I’m not sure what creeped me worse: the fish/boy love story, or the shapeshifter/kindergarten love story.

      I know it’s cool to worship everything certain legendary directors do, but I try to judge movies for myself on a case by case basis. Eastwood has his ups and downs. So does Miyasaki. So does even Scorsese. That said, I don’t doubt that a lot of Academy members will watch the first 20 minutes of Ponyo and see the lovely color palette, and that’ll be enough reason for them to mark it on their ballot. (I’m not saying you guys are so superficial; I’m talking about an AMPAS member with a stack of 45 screeners to watch over the holidays.)

      What 5 movies would I like to see succeed and be nominated?

      Coraline
      The Princess and the Frog
      Mary & Max
      Up
      Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

      My wish is for that to be the order of descending likelihood of winning, too — because my Big Wish is that either Princess & Frog or Mary & Max might turn out to be even better than Up. That’s right; I wasn’t too charmed or entertained by Up either. For me, Up and Ponyo both have something in common that my other favorites don’t. They both annoyed me.

    42. Branko Burcksen October 10th, 2009 at 7:13 pm 42

      I am not at all familiar with how qualified Evangelion is for best animated feature, but I trust Funimation understands or at least verified the rules with the Academy before submitting it. Even with five open spots I doubt it will get nominated even though I think it is about time an anime besides a Miyazaki film got recognized. The Academy already snubbed two great animes, The Sky Crawlers and Paprika for the most part because they had such small releases. Anime typically does much better on DVD than in theatres, which may be the one thing that helps Evangelion because its DVD release is set for November, so it will become more easily available in that sense, but even that is merely a pipe dream for its Oscar chances. However, Evangelion 1.0 You Are (Not) Alone is first of four planned films tetralogy, so even if the first does not make the cut, it will get three or two (the last two film are planned to be a double feature) more chances after the first film gives the saga some recognition. Still for an anime it will always be a long shot unless it has the name Disney or Miyazaki behind it.

    43. Chris October 10th, 2009 at 7:44 pm 43

      It annoys me that Zemeckis’ motion-capture monstrosities qualify for the animated category. Motion-capture is not animation, and whatever actual animation is in the movie shouldn’t qualify it for this category. I see no difference in the technique than what George Lucas did with the new Star Wars films and I don’t recall those ever qualifying for the animated feature category.

      To stay on topic, Coraline, Up, Mary and Max, Ponyo and Cloudy should be the top five.

    44. Sasha Stone October 10th, 2009 at 8:41 pm 44

      If there are five, no way they don’t honor Miyazaki. The reason being, it’s the animators who nominate and they all will admire Miyazaki’s dedication to hand-drawn animation.

    45. ganonlink1991 October 10th, 2009 at 8:47 pm 45

      to answer a previous question, avatar is 60% animated and 40% live action meaning that it doesn’t qualify as an animated feature :/

    46. ladylurks October 10th, 2009 at 9:43 pm 46

      Ryan – I’m with you on not loving Ponyo as much as Miyazaki’s other films, though I believe it’s still plenty good enough to get nominated. Much of my problem stemmed from the voicing of some characters, especially the shrillness of Ponyo’s voice. Did you get a chance to watch it in Japanese with subtitles? ‘Cause I’ve been told that’s a much more rewarding experience than the English-language version.

      Mary and Max looks intriguing.

    47. Ryan Adams October 11th, 2009 at 4:56 am 47

      Lifted from the Mary & Max topic, Mickche writes:

      …its probably the best aussie film i’ve seen this year. Its quite dark, and didn’t deserve a PG rating for its australian release.

      Mickche, you had me at “Its quite dark”

      I think this is my hangup with Ponyo and even Up. Not dark enough for my state of mind in 2009.

      I like my animated movies the same way I like my live-action movies — bleak as fuck, with layers of obsessive detail and gritty richness. Up and Ponyo were both too stay-in-the-lines ‘coloring book’ for me and both too pastel. Pastel palette, pastel attitude.

      I’ve been in an especially dark place all year so maybe I’ll feel different when I watch those two movies again someday. Thing is, you’d have to pay me to watch them again right now. Have no desire to re-experience them again any time soon. In my present mood they’re too frothy and cuddly.

      ladylurks, you’re right. I saw Ponyo with subtitles, and all the Japanese voice work was excellent, full-bodied and resonant — except for Ponyo, who squealed like she was auditioning for Kabukicho school-girl porn. If the American re-dub is even worse, there’s no way I could endure it. When Sosuke found Ponyo stuck in that jar, I wish he’d also found the lid.

      Bring on “The Road.”

    48. ladylurks October 11th, 2009 at 12:37 pm 48

      Yeah, Coraline is my kind of animation… dark and weird, LOL.

      Still, some of the scenes in Ponyo are beautiful. If only she’d remained a fish I could have handled it better, but that was one obnoxious little girl. Loved the storm, and the magician spritzing himself with saltwater – that was wonderful wtf Miyazaki. The sea goddess seemed terribly generic, though.

      Definitely bring on “The Road.”

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      [...] noticiou hoje o site Awards Daily, existe este ano a forte possibilidade da categoria de Melhor Filme de Animação dos Óscares, [...]

    50. Jon R October 11th, 2009 at 4:45 pm 50

      Here are my predictions and reasons for my choices:

      UP (It’s PIXAR, they haven’t missed a nomination ever since this category was created)

      The Princess and the Frog (In 2002, both Lilo and Stitch and Treasure Planet were nominated. 2003 – Brother Bear. This film will make it in this category and the Original Song category.)

      Coraline (If The Corpse Bride could be nominated, then this film will get in.)

      If there are five nominees, it would be the three from above and these two:

      Ponyo (Miyazaki’s last two films Spirited Away and Howl’s Moving Castle were nominated.)

      The last slot will either go to Fantastic Mr. Fox or Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (reason – Monster House and Surf’s Up). I’m leaning towards Fantastic Mr. Fox.

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    52. Awards Picks | The Red Carpet Blog » Blog Archive » An ‘Up’ Year for Animated Film Category October 12th, 2009 at 7:48 pm 52

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    53. Frederik N October 23rd, 2009 at 7:29 am 53

      As a person who has seen coraline, mary and max and UP, I can say that mary and max is a clear cut winner, it is so beautifuly animated, with a clever and selective colour palet, as well as being entirely in camera (as apposed to recent stop motion films such as corps bride and coraline which relied heavily on computor manipulation) Its also a very adult film dealing with lonelyness, autism, sex, alcoholism, depression… UP was cute but nothing special and coraline didn’t realy capture me.

    54. Jezza November 5th, 2009 at 5:21 pm 54

      The main reasons Polar Express and Beowulf weren’t nominated previousely was because Robert Zemeckis didn’t want them to be short listed.
      He’s been more generous with A Christmas Carol. If anyone can beat Pixar it’s Robert Zemeckis.

      Afterall, Who Framed Roger Rabbit? won 4 Oscars in the past (if the animated category came in 1988 it would have won a 5th), and although not animated Forrest Gump won 6 Oscars.

    55. Nick December 18th, 2009 at 6:32 am 55

      I think either Ponyo or Coraline have a great chance of winning the award.

      How the heck did the likes of Ice age and monsters vs aliens make it into this list?

      It’s not that they were bad or anything. They had stunning visual effects and all. But they are just 2 predictable Pixar-isque movies suitable for be maybe some minutes of laughter.

      Totally not Oscar material!

    56. Stiggy January 1st, 2010 at 10:10 am 56

      If Ponyo gets nominated in best foreign language film and Up gets nominated for Best Picture, they might get shut out in the animated category. So here’s my predictions for Best animated feature.

      A Christmas Carol
      Monsters Vs Aliens
      Coraline
      Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (Winner)
      Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

    57. Eric January 20th, 2010 at 7:29 am 57

      If for once the Academy was voting based on popularity here would be the nominees

      Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (Biggest animation of the year)
      Up (Pixar)
      Monsters vs Aliens (Dreamworks)
      Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs (surreal humor)
      Fantastic Mr Fox (Meryl Streep is in it and The Academy practically lover her)

      Those will probably be the nominees. Sadly as a result of that Robert Zemeckis’ luck has run out.


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      “While I’m obviously not ruling it out, I don’t think Avatar will win Best Picture, and the new preferential voting system is precisely why. Had they stuck with just having each member vote on their favorite of the nominees, it might have won, but something tells me that there are a lot of people within the Academy who are part of the backlash against the film, and will therefore place it at #10 on their ballots. You have to keep in mind that from now on, the movie with the most #1 votes is not necessarily the movie that wins. It’s easy to imagine Avatar will get a lot of #1 votes, but it’s equally easy to imagine it will get a lot of #10 votes as well, and that will really hurt it.

      So you kind of have to think more along the lines of which movie will have the least against it, rather than the most for it. The Hurt Locker will undoubtedly get a lot of #1 votes as it is the frontrunner, and while I’m sure there will be those who put it at or near the bottom of their ballots, it seems to me that it will have a lot less low-end placements than Avatar will, and so The Hurt Locker easily has the edge over Avatar in that respect.

      Inglourious Basterds also seems like the kind of movie that will split voters. It’ll get a lot of #1 and #2 votes, but probably also a lot of #9 and #10 votes. So I don’t think it’ll win (though again, I’m not ruling it out). Precious will probably get less 9’s and 10’s, but I frankly don’t think it will get enough 1’s and 2’s to pull off a win. I think it’ll get mostly mid-range votes. Same goes for Up in the Air, though I imagine even that will get more 1’s and 2’s than Precious will.

      So to sum it up, I think The Hurt Locker, while not an absolute, no-turning-back lock, is still the clear frontrunner in this race. If we’re talking about a potential upset though, why not really factor in the new preferential voting system and try to imagine how much that could end up benefiting a film like, say, Up? While it might not get too many #1 votes, I can easily see it getting a lot of 2-4 votes, and who know? If the frontrunners all develop strong enough backlashes, then it could be that this year’s Best Picture will go not to the movie that is the most liked, but rather the movie that is the least DISliked. Just saying.”
      by Jean-Paul
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    • Contender Tracker

      Awards So Far

      NBR Winner+
      /top ten*
      LAFCA Winner+
      BFCA Critics Choice Win+/Nominee*
      NYFCC Winner +/*
      SEFCA Winners+/*
      Golden Globes Nominee+/*
      SAG Winner+/Nominee*
      National Society of Film Critics winners+
      Producers Guild Winner+/Nominees*
      Directors Guild Winners+/Nominees*
      Art Directors Guild Nominees*
      Writers Guild Nominees*
      American Cinematographers Society*
      American Cinema Editors*
      Cinema Audio Society*
      BAFTA Nominations*


      Best Picture
      The Hurt Locker*+++**+++******
      Avatar*+********
      Inglourious Basterds***+****
      Up in the Air+*+*******
      Precious******
      District 9*****
      A Serious Man*****
      An Education*****
      Up****
      The Blind Side

      Best Actor
      Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart++++*
      George Clooney, Up in the Air+*++***
      Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker**+*
      Colin Firth, A Single Man****
      Morgan Freeman, Invictus+***

      Best Actress
      Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side+++
      Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia++++**
      Carey Mulligan, An Education+****
      Gabby Sidibe, Precious****
      Helen Mirren, The Last Station**

      Best Supporting Actor
      Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds+++++++*
      Woody Harrelson,The Messenger+***
      Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones****
      Matt Damon, Invictus***
      Christopher Plummer, The Last Station*

      Best Supporting Actress
      Mo'Nique, Precious+*+++++*
      Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air+****
      Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air****
      Penelope Cruz, Nine**
      Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

      Best Director
      Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker++++*++*
      Jim Cameron, Avatar*+**
      Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds****
      Jason Reitman, Up in the Air***
      Lee Daniels, Precious**

      Best Original Screenplay
      Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds+*
      Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man+*+*
      Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker***
      Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Up*
      Oren Moverman, Alessandro Camo The Messenger

      Best Adapted Screenplay
      Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air+++++*
      Armando Iannucci, In the Loop+
      Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious**
      Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9**
      Nick Hornby, An Education*

      Best Editing

      Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron, Avatar+**
      Chris Innis, Bob Murawski, The Hurt Locker***
      Julian Clarke, District 9**
      Joe Klotz, Precious
      Sally Menke, Inglourious Basterds**

      Best Cinematography
      Mauro Fiore, Avatar+**
      Christian Berger, White Ribbon+++*
      Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker***
      Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds***
      Bruno Delbonnel, Harry Potter

      Best Art Direction

      Avatar+**
      Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus*
      Nine*
      Sherlock Holmes
      The Young Victoria

      Best Sound Mixing

      Avatar+**
      The Hurt Locker***
      Star Trek* **
      Inglourious Basterds
      Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen*

      Best Sound Editing

      Avatar
      The Hurt Locker
      Up
      Star Trek
      Inglourious Basterds

      Best Costume Design
      Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria +*
      Catherine Leterrier,Coco Avant Chanel*
      Janet Patterson, Bright Star**
      Colleen Atwood, Nine*
      Monique Prudhomme, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

      Best Original Score
      Michael Giacchino, Up+*
      Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, The Hurt Locker!
      James Horner, Avatar*
      Alexandre Desplat, The Fantastic Mr. Fox
      Hans Zimmer, Sherlock Holmes*

      Best Foreign Language Film (submissions)

      A Prophet, France+*
      The White Ribbon, Germany**
      El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina
      Ajami, Israel
      The Milk of Sorrow, Pru


      Best Documentary Feature

      The Cove++**+
      Food, Inc.**
      The Beaches of Agnes++*
      Burma VJ*
      The Most Dangerous Man in America
      Which Way Home


      Best Animated Feature
      Up+++**
      The Fantastic Mr. Fox+*+***
      Coraline****
      The Princess and the Frog***
      The Secret of Kells

      Best Visual Effects

      Avatar+*
      District 9* *
      Star Trek**

      Best Makeup

      The Young Victoria**
      Star Trek*

      Il Divo*


      Best Song
      The Weary Kind – T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham, Crazy Heart ++
      Down in New Orleans, The Princess and the Frog
      Almost There – Randy Newman, The Princess And The Frog***
      Loin de Paname, Paris 36

      Best Live Action Short
      The Door
      Instead of Abracadabra
      Kavi
      Miracle Fish
      The New Tenants


      Best Animated Short
      French Roast
      Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
      The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
      Logorama
      A Matter of Loaf and Death


      Best Documentary Short

      China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
      The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
      The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
      Music by Prudence
      Rabbit a la Berlin