Things aren’t anywhere near as quiet as they should be right about now. There hasn’t been a No Country for Old Men stretching its legs for the long haul; there probably isn’t a Slumdog Millionaire poised to eat up every available award known to man. That might be Up in the Air. Is there a showdown between a scrappy underdog and a Big Hollywood Movie ready to emerge? If so, there are little to no indicators. This is going to be a last-minute scramble.
And yet, there is much ruminating online about the race, such as it is. A recent New York Observer piece lamented the absence of Oscar movies. Erik Childress has launched his seasonal series, the Oscar Eye and has started to look at the movies but refuses to count in those that haven’t yet been seen. Tom O’Neil recently polled a few to find out their take. Childress has a list of films he thinks are the frontrunners right now but he also has ten images at the top of his site, and those ten seem to be close to what the ultimate ten might look like, give or take a film or two. Remember, the votes are being counted in order of preference. The list will still show films that are passionately loved by many in the Academy.
Keep reading to delve into Deep Background of Academy history when there were ten nominees for Best Pic.
To that degree, there are still some wild card slots to fill. That’s because you’ll have to look at favorites more so than reliable standbys. But, as of now, this looks pretty good to start (*marks films that are still blind spots, but if all goes well, they’re in).
Avatar*
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus*
The Lovely Bones*
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
I believe Nine will be a strong contender and will bump one of these titles. I still have my doubts about Up, but since so many others are supporting it, it’s hard to leave it off. My problem with Up continues to be this: why would they put an animated film in the Best Picture category when they already have an animated category? Well, they would do it if the film captured their imagination, the way Ratatouille did, or Wall-E, beyond what they would consider adequate for the animated category. I understand that the animated branch votes on their top three movies, and that the whole Academy will be voting for the Best Pic ten. I guess I am not quite convinced yet that enough of them will choose Up as their top three films of the year. I think it’s going to go a slightly different way – but the truth is, I’d trust other people on this before I’d trust myself – so don’t listen to me. But if I turn out to be right, you heard it here first..
I would, however, if predicting a Best Pic ten, change up the above list, even though it appears to be the general consensus right now. Starting with the most likely and working down, this is a wild shot in the dark guess of what the Big Ten might look like according to me (attempting to put my myself into the mindset of voters at the end of December):
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
Precious
Nine
Invictus
Avatar
An Education
The Lovely Bones
A Serious Man
Inglourious Basterds
This is a very tough year to predict because we have no idea what films are going to be the favorite three. Once the National Board of Review announces their top ten, and the Critics Choice, and the Globes — we’ll get a better idea. But it’s spitting in the wind, I’m telling you, to try to pin it down right now. These are blind guesses at best.
What I wanted to do was take a look at the past years, way back when they did nominate ten Best Picture contenders. How did those films match up with Director and Screenplay? Did the director win along with Picture?
I’m going to skip the first year Oscar voted because in my way of thinking, no patterns can be gleaned from a one-off like that. I’m sure it was all over the place and things settled in a bit better the second year.
So, in 1932/33 they started with ten nominees. For my research, I am simply using IMDb. I just know some smarty pants Oscars person will chime in with corrections – and that’s okay, right? We like corrections. We need corrections.
Cavalcade was the winner.
Only three Best Director nominees. Cavalcade’s director, Frank Lloyd took home the prize. The other two were Frank Capra and George Cukor, both for films nominated for Best Pic. It looks like some of the screenplay nominees did not match up but they were honoring “original story” and “screenplay.” Oh, and they gave out Oscars for assistant directors.
1934 – It Happened One Night became the first of only a handful of films to sweep the top categories. The other nominees were:
Cleopatra (1934) – Paramount
Flirtation Walk (1934) – First National
Here Comes the Navy (1934) – Warner Bros.
Imitation of Life (1934) – Universal
One Night of Love (1934) – Columbia
The Barretts of Wimpole Street (1934) – M-G-M
The Gay Divorcee (1934) – RKO Radio
The House of Rothschild (1934) – 20th Century Pictures
The Thin Man (1934) – M-G-M
The White Parade (1934) – Jesse L. Lasky
Viva Villa! (1934) – M-G-M
Again, only THREE directing nominees, all three of whom had pics nominated for Best Picture. Capra won for It Happened One Night, of course. In the screenplay categories, “original stories” weren’t necessarily nominated for Best Pic but the “Best Screenplay” nominees were, same as the year before.
Next, it’s 1935, the winner was Mutiny on the Bounty and we get a Picture/Director split for the first time because John Ford wins Best Director for The Informer. The Big Ten were:
A Midsummer Night’s Dream
Alice Adams
Broadway Melody of 1936
Captain Blood
Les misérables
Naughty Marietta
Ruggles of Red Gap
The Informer
The Lives of a Bengal Lancer
The Personal History, Adventures, Experience, & Observation of David Copperfield the Younger
Top Hat
And again, we get the same pattern of all three directors on films that were also nominated for Best Pic. Same thing in the writing, with original stories not represented, and screenplays were in the running for Best Pic. We still do not have a ten/five ratio of picture to director.
Finally, 1936, we do get a 10/5 ratio – and ANOTHER picture, director split. The
The winner was The Great Ziegfeld. And the winner for Best Director was Mr. Frank Capra for Mr. Deeds Goes to Town.
The other nominees were:
A Tale of Two Cities
Anthony Adverse
Dodsworth
Libeled Lady
Mr. Deeds Goes to Town
Romeo and Juliet
San Francisco
The Story of Louis Pasteur
Three Smart Girls
The other four nominees in the category all had films in the Best Picture race EXCEPT My Man Godfrey, which now becomes the first director to be nominated without his picture being represented after they shifted to ten nominees. That is a very bizarre situation to me, and slightly worrisome. What film this year is going to be the My Man Godfrey? Moreover, it totally deserved to be nominated a hell of a lot more than some of the titles that got in. Note to self: consult Damien Bona’s Inside Oscar to find out how this happened.
At this point, I’ll stop tracking screenplays since they are kind of all over the map, with no clear pattern emerging – some are in, some are out. However, Louis Pasteur won in both screenplay categories (story and screenplay) and was also nominated for Best Pic.
Next, 1937, we have The Life of Emile Zola for Best Pic. And another split between Pic and director, with The Awful Truth’s Leo McCarey winning director. All five directing nominees had nominated pictures.
Other Nominees:
A Star Is Born
Captains Courageous
Dead End
In Old Chicago
Lost Horizon
One Hundred Men and a Girl
Stage Door
The Awful Truth
The Good Earth
1938 brings a Capra again, with You Can’t Take it With You winning both Picture and Director.
The other nominees:
Alexander’s Ragtime Band
Boys Town
Four Daughters
Jezebel
La grande illusion
Pygmalion
Test Pilot
The Adventures of Robin Hood
The Citadel
This marks the first year that all five director nominees were not including in the Best Pic lineup because Michael Curtiz’ Angels with Dirty Faces failed to get a Best Pic nod. It is worth noting that The Grand Illusion ended up the timeless classic (and the first foreign film to be nominated for Best Pic?), as did Jezebel (one of my favorite films).
Then comes the famous 1939, when Gone With The Wind took Best Pic, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Editing. The same thing would happen today if someone had the money and balls to make that movie.
The other nine nominees were all great films – all of which have withstood the test of time:
Dark Victory
Goodbye, Mr. Chips
Love Affair
Mr. Smith Goes to Washington
Ninotchka
Of Mice and Men
Stagecoach
The Wizard of Oz
Wuthering Heights
In typical Academy fashion, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington didn’t stand a chance against Gone with the Wind even though it was Capra’s best film to date (in my opinion) – a hell of a lot better than You Can’t Take it With You. Still, this was a year that should make Oscar proud looking back.
1940 brings another Picture/Director split, with Alfred Hitchcock’s Rebecca winning Best Pic, but John Ford winning for The Grapes of Wrath. Hitchcock is one of my favorite directors but The Grapes of Wrath should have won that year.
The other nominees were (again, a stellar lineup of films):
All This, and Heaven Too
Foreign Correspondent
Kitty Foyle: The Natural History of a Woman
Our Town
The Grapes of Wrath
The Great Dictator
The Letter
The Long Voyage Home
The Philadelphia Story
All five Directing nominees had films represented in the Best Pic category.
1942 – the Citizen Kane vs. How Green Was My Valley year. This was no contest, clearly, as John Ford (whose Grapes of Wrath should have won the year before) wins as Best Director for this epic film. Citizen Kane goes on to become the most critically acclaimed film in history. In the screenplay categories, Citizen Kane deservedly wins for Original. However, How Green Was My Valley does not win for “screenplay,” strangely enough, Here Comes Mr. Jordan does.
The five nominees for director all had films represented in the Best Pic category. The other nine were:
Blossoms in the Dust
Citizen Kane
Here Comes Mr. Jordan
Hold Back the Dawn
One Foot in Heaven
Sergeant York
Suspicion
The Little Foxes
The Maltese Falcon
1942 gives Mrs. Miniver Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay and Cinematography.
The other nominees were:
49th Parallel
Kings Row
Random Harvest
The Magnificent Ambersons
The Pied Piper
The Pride of the Yankees
The Talk of the Town
Wake Island
Yankee Doodle Dandy
And again, ALL FIVE directors had films in the Best Pic race.
And now we come to the end of the Big Ten, until 2009. The very last year to feature ten nominees was 1943 – Casablanca wins Picture, Director and Screenplay only.
The other nine were:
For Whom the Bell Tolls
Heaven Can Wait
In Which We Serve
Madame Curie
The Human Comedy
The More the Merrier
The Ox-Bow Incident
The Song of Bernadette
Watch on the Rhine
And again, all five directing nominees had films in the best pic race.
Here is what I learned from this research. Take it for what it’s worth:
1. It’s more likely that a picture and director would split under a 10/5 scenario than a 5/5 scenario.
2. It’s less likely that a lone director nod would appear for a film not represented in the Best Pic lineup.
3. Robust epics look even stronger up against nine other really good movies.
4. Then, as now, the name of the director and his (or her) reputation so far means a lot.
5. Then, as now, what came before also matters — the beginnings of the “make up Oscar.”
After looking over this decade or so of ten Best Pic nominees, it seems fair to conclude that perhaps popular films (with the general public) might do better on the whole than “smaller” ones. I can’t wait to see how this all plays out.
65 Responses for "The State of the Race: Fiddle Dee Dee Ten Nominees?"
I think Up is almost as locked in as Up in the Air Precious, and Invictus. My guess is Nine will end up bumping out Avatar, Basterds or (gasp) Hurt Locker.
Smarty Pants here! This isn’t a correction, Sasha, since you’re right that the first year to have ten BP nominees was 1932-1933 (although the previous year, the year Grand Hotel won BP, they had eight nominees, which is odd).
For anyone who is interested in the Top Ten from the 1932-1933 year, they were:
* Cavalcade (the winner, as Sasha has mentioned).
A Farewell to Arms
42nd Street
I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang
Lady for a Day
Little Women
The Private Life of Henry VIII
She Done Him Wrong
Smilin’ Through
State Fair
Precious. It has an underdog story, loved by audiences, and seems like something that many will get behind.
Unless the charm of Up In the Air, and its timeliness with the US economy works, I still say Precious.
Unless Avatar or Nine simply amazes us all.
The rest will be happy with nominations.
Jeez, Erik Childress is REALLY anti-Precious. In every one of his categories where Precious is a contender, he takes some sort of jab at it. At this point, it feels like his kicking a puppy or something.
Honestly, I find him a bit difficult to take seriously because he clearly loves Away We Go, which is probably the worst movie I’ve seen all year.
I actually think its a five film race right now
http://www.thecornercinema.com/?p=800
One of the following will win Best Picture: Avatar, The Lovely Bones, Nine, Precious, and Up in the Air.
The other five (An Education, Bright Star, The Hurt Locker, Invictus, and Up) are at the kids table. A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds are looking at the kids table, wanting to sit there.
LOCKS
Invictus
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Precious
An Education
THE OTHER 5
Nine
The Lovely Bones
The Last Station
Avatar
Up
WILD HORSES
Inglourious Basterds
Bright Star
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are
A Serious Man
IN A BETTER WORLD
Moon
A Prophet
District 9
The White Ribbon
Star Trek
I start to believe that THE HURT LOCKER will win best picture. Many think the buzz is fading a bit, but the critics will make it the front-runner in the year without a clear favorite.
I could see Kathryn Bigolow actually winning most critics’ awards and once she starts winning awards in December, the media will go crazy about “the first female director being favored to win the Oscar” thing, which will make voting for the film kind of cool and history in the making! And voters love that!
It will work for the film as well. And while it has a female director, it’s a very male film. And it seems timely and the Zeitgeist factor is here.
I think it will be our winner…
Ross, The Hurt Locker made $12.5 Million. You can’t reward that type of box office performance with a Best Picture win in a year with 10 nominees.
It would become an unmitigated public relations disaster for the AMPAS.
We’re looking at Nine vs. The Lovely Bones vs. Up in the Air.
@ Loyal,
I think that people always overestimate the power of box office. Just look at last year. THE DARK KNIGHT didn’t get nominated. THE READER did. It’s telling a lot about how the Academy cares about what people think. Who cares about ratings is the Board of Governers, but then again, voters vote for films they like (and have seen). And I already think that Kathryn Bigolow is slowly becoming a real contender for best director. And with no clear front-runner, this could be a good winner.
NINE has a lot going against it. Visually it’s really reminiscent of Chicago and voters know it’s the same director. I sense technical wins, but no major victories. The Globes will push it into the race, but the guilds will probably step back. There’s a trend in the last few years to SHY AWAY FROM THE EARLY FRONT-RUNNER, even if it’s a very good film (like ATONEMENT). And let’s not forget that it’s based on the musical based on 8 1/2. I think the blacklash will be huge.
THE LOVELY BONES – I think the first problem is the subject matter. The second is the fact that Jackson won too soon and he isn’t actually a Hollywood insider to be given Oscar after Oscar. And I think that it’ll be the film they respect, but feel indifferent about.
What else could win? PRECIOUS – I doubt it.
UP IN THE AIR – it could be a very good film, but I don’t think it’s an Oscar winner.
THE HURT LOCKER actually premiered early on to critical acclaim and I believe the critics will make it the cool choice in December. Once a film (like SIDEWAYS) starts winning all the major critics, the Academy often notices it. And this one has a lot going for it – it’s a film most Oscar voters probably would have caught up with by December and it’s a film that’s surprisingly good, is on a subject that people think is important and it’s not boring or preachy.
I think it’s going to take the Oscar in the end. Or at least best directing.
I just adore people counting out THE LOVELY BONES, sight unseen. I laugh at you all, and confidently predict it’s winning Best Picture.
I see Lone Scherfig & An Education falling.
Avatar w/ James Cameron looking more secure.
The Ten B.P’s w/ an asterisk for their director’s nom’s
1. Ingl. Basterds – Tarantino Oscar winner
2. Invictus – Eastwood legend & multiple Oscar winner
3. *Nine – Marshall, Oscar nominee
4. *The Lovely Bones – Jackson & multiple Oscar winner
5. *The Hurt Locker – Bigelow out in front for the Oscar win, veteran director.
6. *Precious – Lee Daniels has a bit of the hot, it factor going for him. Possibly one of the three best films of ‘09
7. *Up in the Air – Previous Oscar nominee & Picture considered front-runner.
8. A Serious Man – Coen Bros their name could carry it all alone.
9. A Single Man – Ford has a chance for nom but maybe Daniels has the directorial debut slot filled already and some bias against Ford.
10. Avatar – If it’s great I can see Cameron potentially take Marshall’s nomination.
I believe Avatar will get in for best picture. Cameron is known for making great science fiction films. As for Nine, I think that might be substituted and they will replace it with The Last Station
Precious, UP, The Lovely Bones and UP in the Air are all locks.
Inglorious Basterds, I say will see. The movie was one of the year’s best films and will probably be the most popular choice.
An Education, Invictus and The Hurt Locker will be the smaller films.
I think it’s way to early to be predicting what will actually win Best Picture. Remember, ultimately it doesn’t matter what the critics are buzzing about and giving their top awards to. Remember how Sideways practically swept the critics awards, and then only won an Oscar for Screenplay? Yeah, that’s what I mean.
Also, Avatar, Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones have yet to be seen by anyone, so there could be major changes in their buzz and perceptions once they are seen. However, based on trailers and stories, I’m going to go ahead and say that Avatar and Nine are the most likely to loose favor. Nine because, quite frankly, there isn’t a whole lot of substance to this musical about a womanizer and the women he loves. Avatar, because Dances With Wolves already did this story and won an Oscar.
Right now, my predictions for the Top 10 are:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Up
Up in the Air
A Serious Man
Bright Star
An Education
And a tenth slot that could be filled by Avatar, Nine, District 9, or A Single Man
Here’s my prediction for now:
NINE
THE LOVELY BONES
INVICTUS
AVATAR
AN EDUCATION
UP IN THE AIR
UP
PRECIOUS
HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
And I feel that these films are banging on the Top 10 door:
BRIGHT STAR
A SERIOUS MAN
A SINGLE MAN
(In case any of Nine, Avatar, or An Education fails to catch fire).
I don’t know but after reading this very unique and appreciated approach to considering 10 best picture nominee years my gut tells me that when you have more best picture nominess that spread accolades around to more directors associated with those best picture nominess, the academy may be more willing to award the best director for “career” reasons rather than specific movie reasons.
I saw Precious last night. A very good movie but by no means any sort of front runner. There is clearly no front runner right now and there won’t be until mid December the earliest. And thank goodness who wants the whole No Country and Slumdog are locks by early November thing again? Mo’Nique however is a lock to take home SAG/Globe/Oscar.
I still have a lot of movies to see including An Education and Up In The Air but as of right now my top three films of the year rank as follows.
1. The Hurt Locker
2. A Serious Man
3. Precious
@ Ross,
The Reader pre-nomination made $8 Million, only $4 Millon less than The Hurt Locker in its entire box office run. Letters from Iwo Jima made more money than The Hurt Locker. No one wants to back a commercially unsuccessful film and that include voters with the final ballot. I can’t even find data on the lowest grossing BP nominee ever winning.
What you’re suggesting is so extraordinarily unlikely that its almost not worth discussing. You might as well say a banana is winning Best Picture.
Big article in the New York Times with Cruz and Almadovar
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/movies/01harr.html?_r=1&ref=movies
I’m simply praying that something worthy enough to take home a BP Oscar comes in the next few months. The thought of Hurt Locker winning anything is paining me! It’s an overrated, story-less, unrealistic lead character yawn-fest. I ran to the cinema to see this film, looking forward to the edge of the seat stuff. I waited and waited and waited …. some people are far too easily plased!
“Is there a showdown between a scrappy underdog and a Big Hollywood Movie ready to emerge?”
Isn’t that what Precious vs. Up In The Air is?
so only JEZEBEL and GRANDE ILLUSION
remain the timeless classics of 1938?
i protest. time has been good to that
rascal of Sherwood Forest. it still
remains my favorite adventure movie
of ALL TIME…and many agree with me.
It’s not related but…
The Academy announced today that Jonathan Demme, Angelica Huston, Kirk Douglas and Quentin Tarantino will be among the presenters at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ inaugural Governors Awards event on November 14.
Demme, Douglas, Huston and Tarantino will join 600 invited guests at the Grand Ballroom at Hollywood & Highland Center® to celebrate the careers of Lauren Bacall, John Calley, Roger Corman and Gordon Willis, who each have made lasting contributions to the motion picture industry.
source: http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2009/20091029a.html
Looks like what Sasha takes to be the consensus T11 has what I see to be the consensus T8, 2 of the 4 that are right behind (leaving out the 2 that I want to see – Bright Star/Single Man), and then as a bonus surefire acting vehicle Basterds over the likes of Streep/Mirren’s surefire vehicles.
It’s probably just me but, I care significantly less about the Best Picture race now that it will feature ten nominees. Most of my interest is squarely pertaining to the Best Director field.
id agree 6 movies could win best picture, up in the air, avatar, precious, the lovely bones, or invictus, and i dont think an education is as much of a lock as eveyone thinks it will be
I also see An Education failing to catch on with the public and missing one of the ten slots. I really hope this will leave room for the likes of A Single Man or even The White Ribbon or A Prophet.
Up in the Air and Precious are the frontrunners imo. Also that picture you posted of Vivien Leigh in Gone with the Wind is lovely!
@ Robert (#2)
The more things change, the more they stay the same:
Cavalcade………………. (500) Days of Summer
A Farewell to Arms………… The Hurt Locker
42nd Street…………………………….. Nine
I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang… Un prophète
Lady for a Day……………………………. Precious
Little Women………………………….. Jennifer’s Body
The Private Life of Henry VIII…….. The Young Victoria
Smilin’ Through……………………….. A Serious Man
State Fair………………………… Adventureland
She Done Him Wrong………….. Antichrist
I think whatever happens, something mediocre and undeserving is going to win Best Picture this year because of the 10 choices.
And I don’t see why some think An Education won’t find a spot on the list. It’s much more an audience pleaser than some of the so-called sure bets.
Up in the Air
Invictus
The Hurt Locker
Nine
Precious
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Up
Maybe it’s just me, but I can see Avatar not making it to the final 10.
@Jack Kyser: It’s not just you. In fact, your predicted 10 is identical to mine.
A Single Man, Inglorius Basterds, as well as Nine will all make the BP lineup due to Harvey Weinstein, the same ahole who got The Reader and Chocolat into the BP lineup over much better films. HE may try to get IB in to make up for TDK as it was a hit the only real hit the studio has released. Invictus will fail and will just see a nod for Freeman, this isn’t Clint’s kind of film think Bridges of Madison County. The Hurt Locker is too small and is from a studio that has yet to prove itself. Up in the Air or Nine will win BP this year, that’s just my hunch. Clooney or Firth will win Best Actor. Mulligan will win Best Actress Cristoph Walz Supporting Actor and Julianne Moore supporting actress
As much as I loved “Up”, I don’t think it will make it to the 10 Best Pic nominees, I think that with the Best Animated picture Oscar no animated film will ever make it. And the more I see of “Avatar”, the less I feel it will get in either. By now my 10 (or 11) are:
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
I still feel that “The Road” will resurface once it’s released, and it will fight for the tenth slot against “Inglorious Basterds”..
Or maybe the academy will want to include a foreign film, the most likely now would be “The White Ribbon” or “A Prophet”
SeattleMoviegoer – Absolutley right – if any of the 1938 films can be called a timeless classic it’s Robin Hood.
Ryan – Have you just equated Little Women to Jennifr’s Body? I think you need to take a little time out and think about what you’ve done. Surely An Education would be a little more appropriate.
Some of those parallels are supposed to be kind of a joke, BJT.
How about My Sister’s Keeper instead?
An Education has almost no similarity with Little Women either. And it fails because Carey Mulligan is only one woman.
My point was, look how far the empowerment of women in film has come! urgh.
An Education is the one on the thinnest ice in this race. It doesn’t seem to have much box office viability and is the easiest one to throw out if you’re a voter because you know Mulligan is getting a nomination.
An Education might be a comfortable selection for the more traditional AMPAS member. There aren’t that many high-toned Atonement type of movies this year for the voters who like Michael Clayton and The Reader.
If any of those gets bumped its going to be Up, guaranteed. Fine by me. It was a great movie, but Pixar has and will be much better, and if they’re going to start nominating Pixar movies, I’d rather it happened with the next Toy Story. Basterds getting bumped for Up would be almost as stupid as nominating The Reader was.
I may be alone with this feeling, this year, but…
… To me, so far, this is the weakest year ever (this decade) for quality Oscar contenders. Even Slumdog, which by now people know I am not a major fan of, is miles away better than most crap released so far.
The only films I am keeping an eye on is The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds (which is my favorite) and Up In The Air.
2009 is boring. Either the next two months deliver some heavyweights, or I’m not staying awake for Oscar night (oooh what am I saying, of course I will. But still).
T.
In terms of nominations, I too think that Director is more important than Picture now. However, since the two movies I’m rooting for most, A Single Man & Bright Star, might not even make the cut for T10 Pics, their chances for Director look slim. So that’s why I care about the Picture race more for now. Best Picture winner still matters more than Best Director winner as well.
Great analysis Sasha! I personally think the director battle will be between Bigelow and Reitman. Best Picture is still wide open.
I did a quick scan of IMDB and I think the a movie must be nominated for director if it wants to win BP. Grand Hotel won BP when there were 8 nominees for BP, but it was not nominated for director. There were only three nominees for director that year.
I’m not saying it can’t happen, but I think it is fairly accurate to say if a movie is nominated for picture without its director it is not taking home BP. So at least 5 movies will be there with no realistic shot, but who knows. I know Driving Miss Daisy pulled it off, but it doesn’t happen very often.
The season is really starting to pick up. I can’t wait to actually start seeing some of the contenders!
Some ‘expert’ over at Gold Derby (forget who, apologies) is predicting 2012 in the BP race. Draw your own conclusions.
If Kathryn Bigelow wins BD, all will be okay with me. Even if Hurt Locker doesn’t win BP, I really hope Bigelow wins.
And the only locks to me at this point are Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, and Precious. I have a good feeling about Avatar and Lovely Bones, but not making bold claims until reviews come in.
And I want to love Nine so much, but I think it won’t make the cut in major categories, except perhaps Penelope and one or two other actresses.
Remember everybody, we haven’t even seen Invictus, Avatar, Lovely Bones, or Nine yet. Those are certainly *not* guarantees. We’ll just have to wait and see.
“…and if they’re going to start nominating Pixar movies, I’d rather it happened with the next Toy Story. Basterds getting bumped for Up would be almost as stupid as nominating The Reader was.”
Well guess what!? UP isn’t competing with any other Pixar films! That’s right! All that matters is it’s one of the Ten Best films of the year, not if it’s better than WALL-E or RATATOUILLE or TOY STORY, that it’s one of the best of THIS year. And it surely is, and surely will remain that way. That last statement is as ridiculous as the reaction to THE READER being nominated.
What a beautiful photo!
(:p)
#29, Ryan Adams:
Ha! Great parody, Ryan. She Done Him Wrong=Antichrist especially cracked me up.
I just saw an ad for the Up DVD where the following exchange was used:
-Can we keep it?
-No.
-But it’s a talking DOG!
And that is why Up should stay far away from BP and Original Screenplay. Animation nod? Yes. Win? No, Coraline was a much better film.
If AMPAS continues its love affair with Pixar, Up will sneak into BP, screenplay, and win animation. Shame.
“-Can we keep it?
-No.
-But it’s a talking DOG!
And that is why Up should stay far away from BP and Original Screenplay.”
Funny, because to me it means the exact opposite. I read that and I heard little Russell exclaiming it enthusiastically and I started cracking up. And it’s not all about dialogue anyway. It’s very much about structure, character, thematics, and visual storytelling. All encompassed within a script, all beautifully rendered in UP.
Pixar had a string of brilliant Oscar-worthy screenplays from Nemo to WALL-E. That string broke with Up. Just my opinion, but the characters in Up were only marginally more likable than the characters in Natural Born Killers.
People are still beating up on The Reader… I loved it!
T.
You and me both, Tufas.
“And it’s not all about dialogue anyway. It’s very much about structure, character, thematics, and visual storytelling. All encompassed within a script, all beautifully rendered in UP.”
Although UP is not the best Pixar film, I liked it. It was good. It’s easily been a top 3 movie this year, but that’s because it’s been a weak year. And while I have to say it’s not the greatest screenplay, this quote is one of the greatest rebuttals I’ve seen on AD. It’s really the best answer. Screenplay does not equal dialogue. Evidence of that is how the WGA rules arbitration hearings.
Keeping an eye out for Up in The Air. No clue if the film will be any good but hoping Vera Farmiga’s role is substantial enough to be noticed. I’m beginning to like her performances more and more.
Why are so many doubting “An Education”.
Have you forgotten THE BRITISH VOTE?
The Brits got Atonement in. The pushed Tilda Swinton into the win. With 10 slots, how is The British Frontrunner For a Nomination NOT getting in?
It will easily be there…
Cheers, R.M. Not only the Brits bloc, but there’s the women’s bloc and the gay bloc too. How many older Academy ladies are going to be enthralled with a climax on a rugby field or on the back of a giant flying lizard?
I realize they’re not judging Up based on that one exchange, but for me it encapsulates all my problems with the movie. It’s all over the place and feels thrown together, right down to the literal dogfight (groan). It’s still a good movie, but where Wall-E and Ratatouille seemed like fully formed visions realized flawlessly on screen, Up felt like a pretty good idea that was thrown together without enough thought.
Stop beating up the dead horse! Im sorry but I loved The Reader, more so than Milk! AND IM GAY!
I remember a lot of here last year hated Happy Go Lucky and the lead actress, guess what? I think she was great and played the role in the script than most of you here playing the part of a movie fan!
What about Juno, If I remember it right, Juno was the best thing that came out since Diet Coke, the amazing Juno and the woman who wrote it. Well, I guess Im not going to continue cause you know where im getting at.
To all TDK fans, I love TDK too but not to the extent of revolving my whole life around it. Move on! There is nothing you can do about it because you are not an AMPAS Member!
“Juno was the best thing that came out since Diet Coke”
Apt comparison. Canned fizz, with no nutritional value. Over-caffeinated and loaded with artificial sweetener. Possibly causes brain tumors.
I haven’t seen An Education yet so maybe I’m getting ahead of myself, but it doesn’t seem to be making the impression it needs to make. I’m just reminded of Melissa Leo in Frozen River last year — it didn’t break any box office records but there was so much swirling after the release that helped keep the movie in people’s minds. With An Education, it seems like it was released to a collective yawn (decent though extraordinary reviews and not much more). I’m thinking Mulligan for a nomination and not much beyond that.
“Apt comparison. Canned fizz, with no nutritional value. Over-caffeinated and loaded with artificial sweetener. Possibly causes brain tumors.”
Ouch, Ryan. The Natural may have given the best post about what a screenplay actually is, but you, by far, gave the best down-putting statement I’ve read in a long while. That is just….hurtful.
I don’t understand the Avatar buzz. At all. I think the Oscar predictors behind it are at best totally insane. How can you watch either of the trailers and think “OSCAR!”? I’ve figured out a good comparison that I think works. Peter Jackson came off LOTR huge, acclaimed, suddenly a great director. And he made King Kong. Somehow, everyone predicted that to be a major player, and look how that ended up! Avatar is Cameron’s Kong. It may break even, but it will be forgotten in a few years time, given a few technical nods, and then get championed ironically by fringe critics in later years. But Best Picture? Don’t sell me that bullshit, even District 9 has a better shot.
Avatar is occupying one of the 5 slots I hope to see open up for a movie with more gravitas and actual heart. Unless the screenplay has all kinds of deeper sociopolitical meaning and the plot has more purpose than a bare framework waiting for texture mapping. I’m sure it’ll be great fun. But so are the Harry Potter movies. And Hogwarts is inhabited by distinguished actors who walk around and say original stuff while they’re acting.
Oh, please… stil this?
Juno is a regular movie…
The Reader is a good movie…
An Education is one of best movies this year.
And TDK is…
…the arrogant movie that coudn´t cross the line of action movies.
Where was all this Juno hate last year when it was needed?
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