Oscar season has a way of sweeping out the old to make way for the new. This is really simply understood as award fatigue, an affliction caught by some as they keep sifting through the same old pile of films. Naturally this would lend itself to the kind of breaking news that may or may not mean something — but it is notable and noticeable because everyone battles the same affliction. In the end, the illness wears off. It usually takes one full year for awards junkies to look back and think, wow, how did THAT happen?
One quick read down Hollywood-Elsewhere’s main page and we get: Pete Hammond promoting Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side, Kris Tapley promoting Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (he says Bridges wins for this) and he also guns for Maggie Gyllenhaal. All of these proclamations are tempered with “could” and “may,” still it’s probably enough for the studio to mount a campaign and bloggers take note, or rather, get a blogger, show them the movie and hope that they can push it hard enough to make it matter. Even if it just hops from one site to another until eventually it materializes as buzz. Bloggers are mostly competing with each other for best positioning, as in, whom the studios rely upon. And it is kind of cut-throat, believe it or not. It seems silly but you’ll just have to trust me on this one. Either way, if the goods ain’t there, the goods ain’t there.
Despite how many will try to position it as already over, this is a race that will really start to take shape in mid-December. There is going to be a lot of last-minute rallying going on, I figure. But what do I know? In the end, my legacy will be: the one who didn’t know anything.
Here are five I hope do not get lost in the shuffle, and that, as the season builds to its climax, don’t get left back in the lobby.
1. The script for In the Loop. I still haven’t seen anything that good all year. If the Academy can nominate, repeatedly, Mike Leigh for his mostly improvised scripts, surely they can remember the dazzling array of brilliance at hand in the Armondo Iannucci’s film. But they probably won’t. It isn’t “fresh” enough. In the Loop has stayed with me throughout the year. Here’s to hoping, even if it’s not in the awards race at all (which it should be), that audiences re-discover it on DVD (January 12). It is the rare film that works their ensemble like a well-oiled machine. This film is Mike Leigh wired on meth but it is so spot on and such a brilliant satire it belongs in the same club as Dr. Strangelove. It will probably be obliterated, though, as it might have had a shot if the script were original – but since it’s an adapted work, it will go toe-to-toe with the likes of The Lovely Bones, Nine, An Education, etc.
2. When (500) Days of Summer came out, it was praised but not as enthusiastically, perhaps, as Fox Searchlight’s past winners, Juno and Little Miss Sunshine. It could have fit into Searchlight’s brightly lit campaign quite well, however. But the problem with it, as far as Oscar is concerned, is that it isn’t so much a general audience movie, as the other two were. Top to bottom, (500) Days is, mark my words, one of the most unforgettable films of 2009. It might take some time be realized and defined as such, and it might not have what one might assume is “Oscar heat,” or packaging, but as movies go, as writing goes, as stories go, as acting goes — this one stands out.
I have noticed in the ….wait for it … ten years I’ve been covering Oscar that the kind of love voters experience with a (usually young, white male) director is passionate but fleeting. It is a moment to lift them up and thrust them into the big leagues. This celebration will make their careers, on occasion. Usually, though, history rubs them out in favor of the one who didn’t become the crush magnet. The problem with (500) Days is that the crush never happened. No one ever fell in love with Marc Webb, thus, there was no way to really sell the thing. Look, folks, I don’t make up the rules, I just observe and report them.
Great love stories are few and between anymore. What we usually get is some glossy, generalized, typical study of love. It has become so formulaic that it’s no wonder most people prefer to cut to the chase with porn. At least if you have to watch something formulaic you might as well be getting something useful back.
500 Days should be noticed for screenplay, perhaps actress. It’s too much to hope for anything more – and I promised myself I wouldn’t get into the “shoulds” at all this year. So disregard that last sentence.
3. The Hurt Locker and Jeremy Renner. There seems to be a lot of attention being paid to Kathryn Bigelow’s Hurt Locker. No matter what anyone says, this has been a significant step forward for women directors – on the mainstream end, with Nora Ephron and Nancy Meyers, as well as in the area that women aren’t allowed in very often – the frontrunners in the Oscar race end. So here we have, so smooth it doesn’t need a lubricant, Lone Scherfig, Kathryn Bigelow, Jane Campion. Okay, so maybe only Bigelow is really headed for the DGA and then Oscar, but it’s fun to imagine a scenario where more women are represented. No, a girl group of directors isn’t going to bring the kind of ratings the telecast needs, and maybe this year it really IS about the ratings, it is still kind of pleasurable to imagine a year where it didn’t really matter that the directors of these fine films were women.
But back to Jeremy Renner. The best actor race is crowded and getting more crowded. You can’t really trust every Tom, Dick and Harry who throws out a name and says “so and so is going to win” or “so and so is now the frontrunner.” If I had a dime for every time I heard that one. What’s that? Oh, I have? But it’s different when I say it. Isn’t it? (No). The rules of Oscar watching apply until the end of time: nobody knows anything. We guess, that’s all. However, it is always worth keeping an ear trained to the chatter.
Here is what I know about Jeremy Renner. It is a difficult, layered performance there. It isn’t a scenery-chewing, showy one. This is a man on whom the entire film’s thematic content rests. He is America. But because he isn’t scenery-chewing, and because he isn’t exactly a star, fighting his way into the top five is going to be difficult. There are still other performances yet to be seen, Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine for instance. But if we have Colin Firth, George Clooney, Jeff Bridges, Viggo Mortensen, maybe Michael Stuhlbarg, Matt Damon (who is having a hell of a year), it is going to be very competitive. How do voters choose? On what do they base those decisions? Do those decisions then mean anything?
4. District 9. This movie, I fear, has dropped so far off the radar that when Avatar comes along and finally destroys it there will be nothing left until, at last, it is rediscovered in the next few years, excavated by future audiences. D9 was a beautifully written, suspenseful, entertaining knock out of a movie. Can anyone really make the argument that Sharlto Copley didn’t give one of the best performances of the year so far? But why will it be forgotten? Because it isn’t Oscar-y enough. There is always that need to be highfalutin, which often excludes performers in “genre films.”
5. Melanie Laurent in Inglourious Basterds – It would be a crying shame if, when all was said and done, Inglourious Basterds only got the one nomination for Christoph Waltz. Laurent gave a subdued but captivating performance in the film and probably has an outside shot anyway. While this was meant to to be a reminder of what was once all of the talk and that is now being swept off to the side, as the year wears on some performances stick with you while others don’t. And just because people aren’t talking about them doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be remembered come Oscar time.
53 Responses for "The State of the Race: Five Things"
Glad to see you being as enthusiastic about “500 Days” as I am!
But I agree: It´s chances are in the screenplay-category and maybe for Zooey Deschanel (but I doubt it).
This is not the kind of romance the Academy honors usually. Maybe not lofty or sentimental enough, unfortunately.
But what is about Jim Sheridans “Brother”? I hear no buzz at all about it- the trailer looked very promising. Could this be the candidate for a “last-minute-rally”?
I think “District 9″ will fall off the radar for good reason. It’s not that it’s not “Oscar-y” enough, whatever that means. It simply is not a human story. It missed the chance to become a movie about something serious like human injustice–and maybe you want to say that in some cerebral way, it is–but by the end, all you felt was big action. No one could like the main character or, in fact, any of the characters.
An impressive work, and good fun, but it did not (and will not) get to the hearts of Academy voters.
Also, what about “Away We Go,” particularly Maya Rudolph! That’s certainly stuck with me (with two others: “Where the Wild Things Are” and “Inglorious Basterds”), but will likely not show up anywhere.
Thank you. Finally, FINALLY, someone has a clear-eyed view of Renner’s chances: it’s a great performance, but it’s not the attention-demanding, showy breakthrough turn the Academy demands of its newcomer nominees. He is far more vulnerable than people would like to think.
Sharlto Copley`s performance was great but not star-making. There`s a difference. Star-making (always includes exceptional charisma) lingers longer in industry people`s memory because they want to sign up the actor ASAP. I don`t think that anyone thought Copley would be the Next Leading Man (aka the power to put butts in the seats) after seeing District 9. He ranks higher than Katie and Micah from Paranormal Activity,another cheapo that went big, but the fact remains that movie`s budget and subsequent blockbuster status got more attention that Copley himself and nobody out there thinks that it has more to do with Copley than with the big spaceship and aliens. I mean, remove alines and you know who would watch Ellen Ripley movies? No one, not even feminists. For similar proof, see the fall of Sarah Conor cronicles and terminator savlation. yes, we love Sarah, but no Arnie, no terminator, no profit.
“Star-making (always includes exceptional charisma) lingers longer in industry people`s memory because they want to sign up the actor ASAP…”
Oh, that explains why Fox didn’t rush to sign Copley up for one of the biggest action titles of 2010 (The A-Team), or anything like that.
LOL!
As for District 9 not being “a human story,” well, neither was 2001: A Space Odyssey. Oscar would do well to swing toward the cerebral, and this is the year to do it.
Agree with Jerry Grant, I loved Away We Go, great script, but it definitely has nooooooooo chance.
All I have to say to District 9 is good riddance. That’s what they get for rubbing Nigeria’s name in mud.
A further comment… The only male breakthrough performance this year that WAS the dazzling showy sort that Oscar “demands,” is Copley’s. He did everything, from an accent, to comedy to drama to action, to improv. In any other film except for sci-fi/body horror, that would be Oscar bait.
As for District 9 being overshadowed by Avatar, excitement over Avatar is going to last all of a couple of weeks. District 9 is coming out on DVD on December 29 (after Avatar’s theatrical release), where it will get a second look. All Sony needs to do to give the movie a fighting chance, is coordinate any Oscar campaign for the film with the DVD release.
you know, with lead actress being so weak this year and having seen 4 of the 5 performances on the contention side bar on this site (i haven’t seen the last station), i really think both maya ruldoph and more importantly, zooey deschanel gave amazing performances. by far better than abbie cornish.
i’m banking on a screenplay nod for 500 days of summer but who knows, fox searchlight is very good at pushing a wide range of nominations for its films…
and melanie laurent was dare i say, even a little better than christoph waltz. the only problem is that supporting acrtess is a stacked category and supporting actor is as weak as lead actress (possibly weaker imo)
btw, could you imagine sandra bullock getting an oscar nod for the blind side?! like really…i love her as a fun, rom com actress (i thought the proposal was pretty fun, actually), but i think i might die if she gets in somehow…
What exactly do you mean by In the Loop not being fresh enough? I’m not accusing you of anything, I’m just curious. I think it can secure the nomination as long as IFC Films gets behind it. It got six BIFA nominations and will easily collect a few BAFTA nods so that should be a help.
I wasn’t a huge fan of Copley’s performance, to be honest. I the beginning he is made out to be a simpleton of sorts, getting laughs from the audience for his fumbling, dumb mistakes. Then all of a sudden he is an intelligent action superstar. As much as I enjoyed the movie from an entertainment aspect, I found this character arc a little unbelievable.
As for The Hurt Locker, I think Anthony Mackie stole the show. I think he should get a supporting nom.
‘Matt Damon (who is having a hell of a year)’??????
Of course; he was in the flop movie The Informant and next he will be in the flop movie Invictus.
Great list; I agree with all the movies and performances you mentioned, and I would add Every Little Step, too. It should be nominated in the Documentary category, but it seems like no one remembers it.
-Back to Morgan about “District 9″:
It’s not just that it wasn’t a gushy “human story” and instead was cerebral. Even as something to think about, it doesn’t go very far. It doesn’t actually probe into the interesting questions it might have. Instead, by the end, it’s just a very well-done action movie with a unique setting. But it doesn’t use the setting to make you think about–or feel–any of the provocative issues like human injustice or vengeance or irrational anger that a movie about alien apartheid has a great potential to do. In that sense, I applaud it as a fun and impressive action movie, but think that its unique scenario only makes it nominally interesting, but not an especially novel, powerful, or significant kind of viewing experience.
Finally someone talks about Bullock. I saw the trailer and thought that she could be a big awards contender this year. The film does look like it can go the sappy, cliche, melodramatic route but if it doesn’t I’m sure Bullock will be in contention.
“Avatar Day” came a week after the release of “District 9,” and everyone in my theater walked out saying, “This would have been so much better had I not seen a realistic alien in ‘District 9′ this week. Now they just look like they escaped from Andrew Lloyd Webber’s ‘Cats.’”
People won’t forget.
“But it doesn’t use the setting to make you think about–or feel–any of the provocative issues like human injustice or vengeance or irrational anger that a movie about alien apartheid has a great potential to do. ”
You mean: it doesn’t use the setting to hit you over the head with ideas about human injustice, vengeance and irrational anger. I took away all those nuances from the film, and many more – as did a lot of other people who saw the film and enjoyed it.
So yeah, maybe it’s too subtle and understated about the issues informing it, for Oscar’s love of whack-you-over-the-head “message movies.” In other words, “Invictus” will probably be the token South Africa movie this year. Understandable, I guess.
How is Avatar considered any more serious than District 9? For one, the aliens look far LESS realistic. And D9’s aliens look 1000% more real than the blue critters.
Also, (500) Days of Summer is a cute film, but it’s hardly the WONDROUS DISCOVERY you make it out to be. It’s Annie Hall-lite, and Zooey Deschanel is no Diane Keaton.
I agree with Laurnet, I am praying she gets a nom, what a great performance.
The biggest problem about District 9 for me were the gaping holes in the story. They severely curtailed any enjoyment I had at the fairly rare, but not unique, take the movie had on how to employ science fiction to talk about real and very serious issues. In other words, the analogy broke down very near the surface. Children of Men was so far beyond District 9 in this sense, it felt, pretty much for the whole movie, that District 9 was going through the motions of being relevant, while actually more engaged with something far less significant – the way the story unfolded and the ridiculous, not very believable quasi-transformation of the lead.
If I had a choice, I’d take the “Distict 9″ alien technology over the symbolic power of Matt Damon’s soccer ball in “Invictus”.
I’m with you on just about everything except “In the Loop”. Really didn’t like it! Gandolfini is the best thing about it and he is totally wasted. It’s way, way too small of a film to be considered in the first place and got zero distribution. Script was not good, sorry!
You also forgot Rockwell for “Moon”, grassroots campaign might stick. His performance makes the film. Agree with Laurent over Waltz hype in Basterds. She was good and not as showy as him. What about Charlotte Gainsbourg for Anti-Christ? She got Cannes acting prize just like Waltz, even though the critics loathed the film… How about Lorna Raver for “Drag Me to Hell”, the old gypsy witch who begs for a home loan extension and then attacks Allison Lohman in the parking garage? An amazing performance, so well directed by Sam Raimi.
Also no one is mentioning Phillip S. Hoffman who is always a contender. Is that “Pirate Radio” thing any good?
Haha, so District 9 has preempted both Avatar and Invictus.
To post no. 24:
P. S. Hoffman was fantastic in Boat that Rocked, but it isnt oscar worthy. Not even BAFTA worthy material.
I’m not impressed by the claims of holes in District 9’s story. Every single time someone actually says what they are, they are easily explained or inferred if you pay attention to the film. The only logic that the movie doesn’t stick to is “Hollywood sci fi logic.”
I saw Pirate Radio at a pre-screening Other Forgotten Ones…. and it really has no awards merit at all. It is a silly, cliched comedy with odd subplots and a boring, although handsome, lead. I will be shocked if anything comes from it. And a nom for P.S.H. – no way.
District 9 could be up for Visual Effects, Art Direction, Makeup, Cinematography … but not much else. And rightfully so.
I feel the way about 500 that some feel about Juno (though I don’t). The script is absolutely horrible: tedious, uneventful, and witless. Sans some of the stuff in the trailer and the last line of the film.
But Joseph Gordon-Levitt is a very good actor. Zooey sometimes is.
Agree with you on (500) Days of Summer. I loved that movie, my favorite of the year. The screenplay is fantastic. And the performances too.
Here’s my take on it : http://ow.ly/zF2F
I would really love to see some District 9 love….what a wonderfully crafted movie, great screenplay, and a great central performance by Copley….
This film was highly regarded -except maybe by the Nigerian government – thankfully the Aliens haven’t asked for a ban!
I think given the fact that it was such a slick looking film made for 30 million and made much much more, we may see some love come its way…
Is it eligible for a PGA?
“I’m with you on just about everything except “In the Loop”. Really didn’t like it! Gandolfini is the best thing about it and he is totally wasted. It’s way, way too small of a film to be considered in the first place and got zero distribution. Script was not good, sorry!”
What was wrong with it?
I love 500 Days so much. It’s still my number 1 right now. However, if we’re talking acting nods, I’d love to see Joseph Gordon Levitt over Zooey. I really adore Zooey and she’s good at doing dead pan charm, but hers was not the best performance in the movie.
In my fantasy oscar world, I’d love to see 500 Days nommed for Picture, Actor, Screenplay, and Editing, and naturally I wouldn’t complain if Zooey got a nod. Of course in my fantasy oscar world Jim Broadbent would get a nod for HP6. So yeah. Not holding my breath.
Praising Zooey Deschanel on top of Joseph Gordon Levitt is stupid. Ok, she was really good, but Levitt was absolutely fascinating and the film itself was not at all forgettable, so that’s another point of stupidity. Therefore it looks very funny to say “look guys, I observe and report” Bullshit, you simply just can NOT observe anything about it. 500 Days of Summer is one of the best pictures of the year. If there is any justice, it should earn BP, Screenplay, Best Actor noms quite eaily, but you know it’s all about campaigns, like the promotional film ads(for films that come out every year for Oscar baiting-An Education, Precious, Invictus, so shallow to be true) on your site as the money speaks high tone.
How is In The Loop not original? Only two characters carry over from The Thick of It and it’s not based on a pre existing story… And it’s predominantly improvised? Oh, and it’s fucking awesome!
I think that Jason in post #11 is wrong about Bullock. While she is a brilliant rom-com actress, when I think about the best performance I have ever seen of hers it has to be CRASH.
Now, don;t get me started about that film, but you can’t deny some of the performances in it and, with the obvious exception of Thandie Newton, I think Bullock gives one of the best, it shows that she is actually a pretty brilliant actress. I think it would be pretty nice if she were to get recognised.
Anyway, 500 Days is, without doubt, my favourite film of the year, and if i could choose my ideal Oscar winners, I think I would pick everyone involved with that film to win.
Loving Laurent love also.
In fact, it might just be me, but I was a bit underwhelmed by The Hurt Locker, would much rather 500 Days and Inglourious were recognised.
“Only two characters carry over from The Thick of It…”
But that’s enough, Bradley. Especially when the same characters were created by the same writers who wrote the TV series and movie both. The story structure is also nearly identical: Minor MP misspeaks; international comedy of errors ensues. In the Loop is a tighter refinement and concentrated distillation of the UK series. It’s a perfected version of a very clever concept.
“…it should earn BP, Screenplay, Best Actor noms quite eaily, but you know it’s all about campaigns, like the promotional film ads on your site.”
Best Actor? JGL was great in the role, but he’s about 10th or 12th on the list of important lead male performances this year. I’d like to see (500) Days get a BP nomination and I don’t think it’s impossible. The fact that Sasha is featuring its prospects — in spite of having not one single ad from Fox Searchlight on the site — seems to poke a few holes in your theories of our motivation for praising this movie all year long.
Sasha is observing the facts of life, and reporting on the often sad realities. Gallop off on your high horse to find another site that’s been talking as much as we have about (500) Days as a film that shouldn’t be overlooked.
#9 “He did everything, from an accent…”
Huh? What accent? Copley is South African and his accent was South African.
#6 ” Oh, that explains why Fox didn’t rush to sign Copley up for one of the biggest action titles of 2010 (The A-Team), or anything like that.”
It`s an ensemble movie. It isn`t like they asked him to headline I Am Legend.
Ryan, I know it’s a weak year for lead actress and a very strong year for lead actor, but JGL delivered a better performance than Zooey in the context of the film. So that’s why it’s frustrating for me to see him written off for recognition. I never thought I’d say this but thank god for the Globes comedy categories.
And I must say it’s nice to see such support for 500 Days. Let’s pray the love carries over to awards in the coming months.
I can’t disagree with anything you say, Noah. And based on way you preface your comment, I think you agree that Zooey has a better shot a breaking in with a nomination than Joey. Pretty sure Sasha isn’t overlooking JGL’s contribution, but just being realistic about his competition.
One of my very favorite movies of the year. I’m hoping we’ll be surprised in several categories — even Best Editing.
Even with all the competition, Gordon-Levitt has a better shot than Deschanel. Because her role is soooo not lead actress material. I’d almost say she’s Supporting because of how little of her perspective we get. I’d say Levitt is in the top ten of Actor, probably, but Deschanel is not in the top ten of Actress. Though all this is academic, as neither will be nominated
Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
Whereas Actress:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Audrey Tatou, Coco Before Chanel
Meryl Streep, It’s Complicated
Maya Rudolph, Away We Go (film didn’t make nearly as much as Summer, but Rudolph’s performance received strong notices, she’s an obvious lead, and, oh, she actually gives a good performance, if that counts for anything)
Copley speaks with an English South African accent which is very different from the Afrikaner one he put on for the film. So yes, he did a real accent.
(500) Days Of Summer has one of the most groan inducing last lines in the history of movies; that alone should disqualify it from the Screenplay race.
Weak year for lead actresses? You’ve GOT to be kidding me.
You know, I’ve decided the reason Best Actress is being called weak is because there isn’t an overabundance of perfs which feel like Sure Things. When I was reading in EW about the main 3 being “likely in, leaving two slots for the taking,” it made me think. Almost everyone agrees that Streep, Mulligan, & Sidibe will get noms, and the closest behind are Mirren, Cotillard, Ronan, & Cornish. But that none of the four are Sure Things make them at least appear weaker.
But being a Sure Thing is different from being one of the best perfs of the year. Look at the actual nominees in years past; not all are now considered all that great…while a # of perfs that got no major awards or noms are considered incredible by certain circles. So perhaps the criticism with the race has less to do with the sheer # of great perfs than the # of perfs for which the Academy seems almost totally sure to take the bait.
All I have to say to District 9 is good riddance. That’s what they get for rubbing Nigeria’s name in mud.
Oh please.
@46 The Natural: In quantity, not quality. Streep, Mulligan, and Sidibe are the only true locks. Firth, Clooney, Day Lewis, Freeman, Damon, Renner, and Mortensen are all very strong contendors. Zooey has an ever so slight chance at sneaking in a la Laura Linney in The Savages. JGL would unfortunately take a miracle.
(500) Days of Summer doesn’t have as many enthusiastic reviews as Juno and Little Miss Sunshine mostly because of its depressive nature. It’s a film that gives hope, but not in the way Hollywood movies do. It’s a movie that breaks your heart…. It’s believable. it’s fun, but what’s its greatest achievement is how real it is.
Zoey Deschanel is not a great actress, but Joseph Gordon Hewitt was suberp¡¡ He deserves nomiantion, she not deserves a nomination¡
Oscar for Michelle Pffeifer¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡
This has been a slightly disappointing year for movies so if Inglourious Basterds doesn’t make the ten count, that would be a shame. It was fun, surprising, passionate and most importantly cinematic. And I second a nomination for Melanie Laurent, Best Supporting Actress. And Christoph Waltz for the win!
Clayton – I just rented Every Little Step, because I’d heard so many great things. Gotta say, I was pretty underwhelmed. If you haven’t seen the musical, forget it – you have no idea of who’s trying out for what or what’s going on. And there’s no new information about the audition process, which is already some pretty lightweight stuff (for an Oscar, anyway). I mean, don’t they do this on American Idol? I seem to remember they even did a Broadway musical audition show already. I can’t believe Outrage isn’t getting more attention. That’s the one that blew me away.
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