Indiewire’s Peter Knegt gets down to it with the locks and whatnot of this year’s race so far. First he, then we…
Beyond that, I’d wager that there are roughly 17 films with something of a chance at the remaining 7 slots, some of them much better off than others (“An Education” and “Up,” for example, are looking pretty good right now). It’s within the six films that few among us have seen – “Invictus,” “Nine,” “The Lovely Bones,” “Avatar,” “Brothers,” “It’s Complicated” – that this game could really change, though I have little confidence in the latter three. As for the others… Simplistically put, they are this year’s “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Revolutionary Road” and “The Reader.” Films made for Oscar, and hyped as such from the second they start production. But as we know from last year’s batch, not all of them end up making it work.
What should also be really interesting is what happens to the many films living on the brink here. “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Bright Star” – these are, let’s face it, films that would not stand stand a chance at the shortlist in a five-slot-year. As a fan of all four, I think I’d forget my ten-slot apprehension if at least a couple of them ended up making the cut. As far as things stand now, I’ve got one. Ranked in terms of likelihood, here’s my rundown:
Locks:
1. Up In The Air
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Precious
More after the cut.
Good Bets:
4. An Education
5. UpSeem Likely… But, No One Really Knows:
6. Invictus
7. Nine
8. The Lovely BonesFor The Last Two Slots:
9. The Last Station
10. A Serious Man
11. Inglourious Basterds
12. A Single Man
13. Bright Star
14. Crazy HeartSeem Unlikely, But No One Really Knows:
15. Avatar
16. Brothers
17. It’s ComplicatedVery Dark Horses:
18. The Road
19. Julie & Julia
20. Where The Wild Things Are
I guess if they had to go one mainstream aimed-at-women movie they might plug in It’s Complicated with Julie & Julia. A word about It’s Complicated, though – up until now, Nancy Myers hasn’t delivered. Her films have been, to me, unwatchable. As you all know, it’s difficult for me to say since I support women directors – but both Nora Ephron and Nancy Myers make movies for certain kinds of women. I know women like that – I am just not one of them. However, both of them usually have 50% of their films worth watching. I’ve seen The Holiday, as terrible as it is, probably five times because I like the performances. Actually, I think it is probably her best film to date.
I can only just barely make it through You’ve Got Mail and Sleepless in Seattle, but I will no doubt suffer through the Julie parts to get to the Julia parts when the film hits cable.
But one movie I can’t even watch all the way through is Something’s Gotta Give. You will find no greater fan of Diane Keaton but that movie was a women’s fantasy gone way wrong.
So I am, naturally, wary of It’s Complicated for those reasons. However, just like it seemed impossible for anything with Diane Keaton and Jack Nicholson to go that wrong, it seems impossible to look at Alec Baldwin, Steve Martin and Meryl Streep and ever imagine anything could go wrong. I just hope it isn’t like the Keaton movie – whitewashed to make it seem like men really do only want older, more experienced women. Take it from me, folks. Some of them do, yes. But most of them are programmed by nature to prefer the younger among us. Nancy Myers tries, in my opinion, to change the way nature works in order to … give women a boost? More power to her for that. And I applaud her efforts to change the minds of studio heads and audiences alike. I just wish the writing was a bit less generic.
Diane Keaton’s character in Something’s Gotta Give is so irritatingly perfect it boggles the mind and ruins everything that is good about the film. On the other hand, her character in Baby Boom (written by Myers, directed by her cad of a husband) is great - flaws and all. So based on her track record I’d say It’s Complicated is going to bug.
There seem to be forces at work pushing the film into the generally discussed Best Picture contenders group – as Peter Knegt casually includes it with Avatar, The Lovely Bones, etc. Who am I to stop the train?
32 Responses for "IW’s Knegt Dives Into the Oscar Categories"
LMAO that picture of Meryl and Alec. That being said I like most of Meyers movies. I just take them for what they are, good fun and nothing serious. She always knows how to pick a good cast. If I had a choice though I would prefer Julie/Julia to It’s Complicated (even though i havent seen IC). I enjoyed J/J a lot and i dont see Meyers movie being better.
I think Knegt’s being a bit narrow-minded and silly for putting Avatar on the same level, nomination probability wise, as Brothers and It’s Complicated.
December release, Titanic follow-up, tech heavy, $300+ Million grosser. It’s getting in.
Ryan, you guys kinda forgot about the Most Promissing Young Actors list didn’t you?
I don’t know why people is discarding “The Road” even before its release.. I still can see it getting in easily into the final 10.. Of course it all depends on its B.O. performance.
I love Meryl Streep’s hair.
Unwatchable? Really? I will admit that What Women Want completely bottomed out by the end, and The Holiday was by no means perfect – but Something’s Gotta Give is far from unwatchable….i think that meyers has consistently gotten better as a writer and a director and I am really looking forward to It’s Complicated….
And, btw….he may have a little extra girth, and he doesn’t make me drool the way he once did….but Baldwin still looks pretty fine!
“It’s within the six films that few among us have seen – “Invictus,” “Nine,” “The Lovely Bones,” “Avatar,” “Brothers,” “It’s Complicated” – that this game could really change, though I have little confidence in the latter three. As for the others… Simplistically put, they are this year’s “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Revolutionary Road” and “The Reader.” Films made for Oscar, and hyped as such from the second they start production. ”
So, according to this order, Invictus = Ben Button (admired but not loved), Nine = Revolutionary Road (the one that didn`t make it) and Lovely Bones = The Reader (the “you stole ___________(insert beloved blockbuster)`s spot!” nominee ). Interesting. Perhaps the order was just random. Perhaps. But I have the feeling that of these three, Nine may be the one missing out.
First he was comparing the “last” three films of the six unknowns “Avatar”, “It’s Complicated”, and “Brothers” to Rev Road, Ben Button, and The Reader.
I’m actually looking forward to “It’s Complicated” because I have enjoyed “The Holiday”, “Something’s Got to Give” and although I enjoyed “Sleepless” I could barely get through “You’ve Got Mail” I’ve heard some buzz on “Brothers” but not enough yet.
Reviewing his list I too would agree with the first three. My next two probables were “The Lovely Bones” amd “The Last Station”
Next three in my opinion are “Inglorious Bastards”, “The Road” and “Nine”
Those last two slots are the roughest I think and my opinion is that “Bright Star” and “A Serious Man” might grab those two places.
1. The Hurt Locker
2. Precious
3. Up in the Air
4. The Lovely Bones
5. The Last Station
6. Inglorious Bastards
7. The Road
8. Nine
9. Bright Star
10.A Serious Man
I beginning to believe too that Renner’s chances are improving for Best Actor. The more the film is acknowledged by the Critics lists which will start falling soon the better his slot looks.
1. Firth
2. Depp
3. Mortensen
4. Freeman
5. Renner
I think the actress category is getting full quick but I think there’s still room in this category for some surprises.
1. Sidibe
2. Streep depends which performance.
3. Mirren
4. Mulligan
5. Cornish
I really hope that Plummer gets pushed for Best rather than Supporting. But based on what I’ve heard my choices are
1. Plummer
2. Waltz
3. Tucci
4. Sarsgaard
5. Duvall
The category that is going to get really tossed about is Supporting Actress until we actually see Nine. This may be where the Academy goes out on a limb.
1. Cruz
2. Mo’nique
3. Farmiga
4. Dench
5. Loren
Loren is my wish nominee but I rarely get what I wish for sooooooooo.
I’m happy that Meryl is getting all the meaty female roles (who’s her manager???) and taking them away from Marcia Hardaway, Tilda, Salma and the other over 40 yr old actresses (not!)….because it’s really hard for a woman of her age to get work and she’s somehow barrelling her way through Hollwyood, casting agents be damned.
That written ^, I’m luke warm to Nancy’s movies. Something’s got to give was good up until the point where the younger-older man were fighting over Keaton — didn’t believe it for one moment.
There’s too much mugging and pulling-of-faces in the trailer for It’s Complicated. All three stars seem to be trying to outdo each other in a contest to see who can show the most whites of their eyes.
Way too broad. The sight gags and situations look contrived.
They’re clearly having a blast — and who wouldn’t be? Considering the back-end points they negotiated.
I’m sorry, but in the script Meryl appears to come off worse than anyone. Honestly, to me, this looks so bad that I worry it could taint her Julie & Julia chances. The J&J nomination is a deadbolt lock, but IC can only remind people that even that performance threatened to tipple over the top.
Depressing to me that Knegt can give It’s Complicated a higher likelyhood of nomination than Where the Wild Things Are or The Road.
[Good news for the NBR though. They've found this year's Bucket List.]
I think Sidibiye will win a lot of critics awards but not the big one because she’s brand new — which should be a plus, but that character is not going to sit well with Oscar members for an award. I think Monique has a good chance of winning the big one. I would like to see Paula Patton in that category. Everybody’s praising Mariah, but Paula’s character showed restraint and caring.
I haven’t seen the other movies….the movie schedule this fall/winter is going to get crowded quick!
oh, and I liked The Holiday too. I’ve seen it more than once (but less than 5 times).
There are plenty of non-Oscar movies I’ve seen 5 or 6 times, and I’d probably divulge a title or two if I were being waterboarded. But we all know that a movie’s “enjoyable factor” has almost no relation to its Best Picture chances.
[Wasn't there an accidental exhibitionism scene in Something's Gotta Give too? Nancy Meyers thinks middle-age nekkidness is a lot funnier than I do.]
I still don’t see how “the Road” is a “very dark horse” when only Variety, Ebert, and this site seem to not love it. I’d say Variety matters more than Ebert (who has a very, erm, eclectic taste). Bad box office could kill it, but it benefits from being adapted from an acclaimed novel, and having strong odds in a considerable number of categories. How does this ends up below “It’s Complicated” (a Nancy Meyers comedy? Really?) or “Crazy Heart” (Looks good on paper, but right now it’s nothing more than flavour-of-the-week for Bridges’ sudden best actor odds)?
“Inglorious Basterds” should also be a lot higher up. While divisive, it has a strong fanbase, very strong odds in a good number of categories, not least for Waltz, and terrific b.o. success. It’s somewhat similar to The Dark Knight: big hit, big fanbase (even if some are turned off by it for being prejudiced against the genre), strong behind-the-camera credits, strong reviews, and a standout performance.
In a 5 film lineupe I’d call both films (very) dark horses, in a 10 film lineup “Inglorious Basterds” and “the Road” look like strong bets. But that’s just my 2 cents. (For the record: I’m usually pretty good at my predictions, but a few months ago I thought people who said “Precious” was a contender were certified nutcases, so what do I know?)
ugh baldwin
I still don’t see how “the Road” is a “very dark horse” when only Variety, Ebert, and this site seem to not love it.
You might be right about Variety and Ebert, Erik, but Sasha and I have never written an unfavorable word about The Raod. Personally I think it’s going to be one of the Best Picture nominees. And if it’s not then it will be seen someday as an omission as bad as Children of Men or Into the Wild.
Not that I think Meyers is mighty talented or anything, but I find her movies harmless and sometimes very entertaining. I’ll watch It’s Complicated in theatre, and I’ll probably enjoy it a whole lot. I’ve always been a hardcore fan of Alec Baldwin, through the ups and downs of his career and body weight (he’s still a fine piece of manmeat, haters be damned!), and who doesn’t love Meryl? I’m sure the movie will be a blast. But a BP nom? I don’t see that happening.
#8 “First he was comparing the “last” three films of the six unknowns “Avatar”, “It’s Complicated”, and “Brothers” to Rev Road, Ben Button, and The Reader.”
No he didn`t. he said “I have little confidence in the latter three (Avatar, It`s Complicated and brothers). As for the others… Simplistically put, they are this year’s “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Revolutionary Road” and “The Reader.” Films made for Oscar, and hyped as such from the second they start production. ”
“The others” are Invictus, LB and Nine because they are made for Oscars and were hyped as such from the second they started production. Do you really consider Avatar a made-for-Oscars movie? LB, Nine and Invictus fit the description perfectly. But, of course, Clint/Jackson/Pene/Cotillard/Kidman fans won`t accept anything less than stellar said about these movies.
Ryan, I might have jumped the gun a bit. I had the impression that you guys had reported the response to the Road as being more tepid or divided than was fair. Then again, nothing’s for sure till it actually comes out.
I also think that, even if a lot of critics don’t like it, knocking down its MC or RT scores, that doesn’t really matter if it’s sentimental and middle-of-the-road (no pun intended) enough for enough Academy voters to like it (see: the Reader, Crash, etc.). I’m not surprised, for instance, about the lack of universal praise for Precious. It doesn’t seem like the most accessible film that will appeal to everyone equally. I generally look forward more to films when 70% of critics really love it and 30% really hate it, than I do to films where 90% of critics agree it’s really sorta okay and not-too-bad.
But I digress…
“I had the impression that you guys had reported the response to the Road as being more tepid or divided than was fair.”
No problem, Erik. I think we’ve been holding off on making any definitive comments about The Road altogether until more people have seen it. All I’ve ever tried to do is put a careful lid on my own personal enthusiasm whenever I’ve posted the numerous clips and music tracks we’ve featured. A rare example of self-control for me.
It’s interesting how hesitant people are about putting The Lovely Bones in the top 10. As a Peter Jackson fan, I’m looking forward to it more than Invictus and Nine.
I’m curious about the reception by the Academy for A Single Man. I have no doubt it belongs in the top 10. Actually I think it belongs in the top 5. I’m not sure if some male voters will stay away. But it really doesn’t have a lot of sex in it, it’s actually more about the emotional connection between characters, and it’s beautifully acted and shot.
With Jeff Bridges in the Best Actor mix, who’s going to miss out?
I dunno for nothing. But I am concerned that some of the — shall we say — older Academy voters will get all confused over A Single Man and A Serious Man as well as stars Colin Firth and Michael Stuhlbarg.
What if for convenience AMPAS members write 9 on their ballot when they really want Nine?
A lot of people are going to regret not having (500) Days of Summer anywhere near their predictions list for best pic.
I saw The Road yesterday and for mine it’s not going to the Oscars, not in the acting categories anyway.
While not bad performances – they are quite good – none seem ‘wow’. Sure Viggo loses weights and uglies up but do we have to keep giving out awards for that? But there is more to his performance than that, I’m just making a point.
And Kodi Smit-McPhee, although an Aussie, does nothing stellar in terms of child performances (btw did u know his sister star’s on TV’s Hung?).
Still, The Road could get a Best Picture nod. I didn’t hate the film or even dislike it, I just wasn’t moved by it and that’s a shame.
And to #18 The Road is not the slightest bit sentimental.
Thankfully Firth has way way more buzz than Michael so they can just vote for him.
The big 12 from a month-ish ago seems to be shaken up a bit.
While all are in his T15, there’s also vehicles that if nominated would primarily be to help drive certain performers towards contention: Helen Mirren/Christopher Plummer, Jeff Bridges, and Christoph Waltz.
And lower down: Streep, Mortensen, Natalie/Jake (which seems very dark horsey to me), and Streep some more.
#20 “It’s interesting how hesitant people are about putting The Lovely Bones in the top 10.”
Because they read the shitty book. Even though the movie cannot possibly be worse or just as bad and I`m sure it`s going to be pretty good or even very good. It`s like Twihaters thinking that New Moon the movie will be crap because they find Twilight Saga to be crap (I agree only about Breaking Dawn which was the worst book I read since Lovely Bones, Amber Spyglass and Eragon series – my tie for the worst books ever written). New Moon will be so much better because it`ll move faster where the book tends to drag and there will be more Edward. So I`m sure LB the movie will be improvement over the book but the book is so awful that it`s understandable why people are sceptical about Jackson`s ability to turn shit into gold.
Knegt is awesome for bucking the developing bullshit consensus on Avatar. All of its boosters are ridiculously in the tank for Cameron, and over the moon about the footage they’ve seen, allowing their personal biases to get in the way of accurate prognostication.
I say Julie/Julia won’t get nominated. How many nominations can have the film? Actress? Maybe Music? I can’t see a film nominated with only 3 nominations.
Julie/Julia has also been mentioned for supporting actor for Stanley Tucci. They might go all weird and throw in something like Art Direction or Screenplay, who knows (though let’s hope not). Four Wedding and a Funeral was nominated for only 2 oscars including best pic, and that was in a five film field.
But I agree, i don’t see it getting nominated just yet.
I happen to have enjoyed Meyers work immensely, and I honestly think that her films are VERY age-specific, so anyone under the age of 40 is going to have a difficult time finding Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton rolling around in bed with a pair of scissors and a stubborn turtleneck funny. With “The Holiday” Meyers went for the under 40 crowd, but it’s appeal and sensibility were strictly middle-aged. The sheer concept of Meryl, Alec and Steve in a light, frothy romantic comedy is thrilling to virtually anyone over that same age hurdle.
I don’t think having had to suffer through ALL two hundred hours(it seemed) of “The Road” and 20 mins. of “Avatar” that either of those atrocious films are going to be Academy-friendly.
They don’t vote for cartoons(Up) or even half-cartoon(Avatar).
And I don’t think Viggo’s performance is gonna make it either. While Jeremy Renner’s splendid originality in “Hurt Locker” is not going to be overlooked by the rank-and-file actors branch who see him as a kind of folk hero. To them. He’s a working/character guy that’s breaking out in a great film and a great role. They LOVE that.
And yes, Christopher Plummer’s is a leading performance, but would almost certainly win in the Alan Arkin category – Supp- but not in lead…
I love Knegt for calling the shots. And I think on the whole, he’s got it quite right.
No Patricia Clarkson for “Whatever Works”? Guess not.
But I’m glad to see he’s got Audrey Tautou in the mix. “Coco Avant Chanel” just got three European film nominations and went wide Friday. Good timing…
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