A couple of mistakes on my list – An Education is not on the Best Pic list and Julie & Julia is. Definitely swap the two. I think Julie & Julia is a dark horse. But who knows what I was thinking when I compiled mine to exclude An Education. Thanks to Dominik for pointing it out. Seriously, what good am I, as Bob Dylan would say. To make matters worse, I had forgotten to add Morgan Freeman on my Best Actor list and I do think he is going to be nominated – so please disregard his absence from my list.
Here is how it looks now:
1. Colin Firth
2. George Clooney
3. Jeremy Renner
4. Viggo Mortensen
5. Matt Damon
These five have all been seen either by me or by groups of people. Morgan Freeman is still in the unseen category so it’s hard to think of him as winning the race already. On the other hand, this could be Freeman’s best and most powerful role. So keeping an open mind here but take it all, as always, with a grain of salt.
By the Gurus list, the top ten for Best Pic right now looks like this:
1. Up in the Air
2. Precious
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Invictus
5. An Education
6. Up
7. Nine
8. The Lovely Bones
9. Inglourious Basterds
10. A Serious Man
Avatar is next, at 11. Let’s do a little Gurus digging and analysis after the cut.
Last year, the earliest Gurus chart I could find was November 18, 2008. That is a couple of weeks from now, and a lot can happen in a couple of weeks. At that time, here is how it looked:
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Benjamin Button
3. Milk
4. Frost/Nixon
5. Revolutionary Road
Only one film was replaced off of this list. Funnily enough, though, the following week, Slumdog and Button had flipped.
Going back to 2007, in early November, more like now, it looked like this:
1. Atonement
2. No Country for Old Men
3. American Gangster
4. Charlie Wilson’s War
5. There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton was number 6, Juno was trailing at 9.
Going back to 2006, we don’t have an early November chart, just a late one. It looked like this:
Dreamgirls
The Departed
The Queen
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
So only Dreamgirls turned out to be wrong. Going back to November 2005, it looked like this:
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Munich
3. Walk the Line
4. Memoirs of a Geisha
5. Good Night, Good Luck
I think this is a funny year because only one Guru, Jeff Wells, had Crash on his list. Kris Tapley had it at number 6.
53 Responses for "The Second Gurus Chart Goes Up"
Nice work. The only problem is SHERLOCK HOLMES is winning Best Picture and none of the “Gurus” have it on their list.
Sasha, you think “An Education” will fail to get a best picture-nom?
That’s a respectable 10. I think Inglourious Basterds is outside the 10 and Avatar is inside. But otherwise, I buy it.
Hunter, is that wishful thinking, or have you seen it?
Why is Scott Feinberg not among the Gurus? It’s my sense that he has one of the best prognostication records…
I do think An Education will – it was just a dumb oversight that I didn’t put it on my list – you who read my site know what I think about it. Doing those gurus things is always kind of hard — anyway, it should be on there.
The appearance of Dreamgirls, Charlie Wilson’s War and Revolutionary Road on early November charts from 2006, 2007, and 2008 points up the folly of claiming any movie is a lock before anybody even sees it. Didn’t all three of those premiere on Christmas Day? There’s a lesson there, gang.
(Though I do think Revolutionary Road was pretty magnificent.)
Yeah but I’d argue Dreamgirls would most certainly get in with 10 nominees.
Ryan, yes, which is why people are always nervous about predicting them thusly – however, Benjamin Button and Munich are two that were predicted and never seen and still made it in. So it can go both ways.
Absolutely, Loyal. I liked Dreamgirls too. I liked the glitzy momentum of Dreamgirls a heck of a lot better than the stalled cutesiness of Little Miss Sunshine.
I’VE SEEN 3 OF YOUR TOP 10, AND WOULD RANK “BRIGHT STAR” HIGHER THAN ANY OF THEM.
You beat me to my self-editing, Sasha. I was just about to append the same thought to my comment. Focusing on the positive like that, it’s really remarkable that smart Oscar experts can consistently nail 4 out of 5 BP nominees — 3 months in advance! — year after year.
Since I’m new to this game, it’s no reflection on me to praise the bloginistas for their role in raising the standard of excellence in Best Picture nominees over the past 4 or 5 years. Oscarwatchers who accurately track all the precursors have become important precursors in their own right.
[And as I say, just because Revolutionary Road and Dreamgirls didn't make the final five, doesn't mean that they didn't deserve to more than the weakest BP nominee that did.]
#1 “Nice work. The only problem is SHERLOCK HOLMES is winning Best Picture and none of the “Gurus” have it on their list.”
Hunter has beer and cheats on Lovely Bones. That said, I love this rise of Holmes.
Sherlock Holmes is winning best picture? LOL
and Jessica Simpson is a formidable best actress contender for her role in Blonde ambition
I am really surprised Star Trek has faded from view. I think a lot of movie goers loved it and it got great reviews.
And though I don’t think Sherlock Holmes could win Best Picture, if it’s any good (the questionable factor is Guy Richie), it would be the type of film the Academy could nominate as one of the 10 best for its entertainment value. I thought the point of having 10 films was to include some movies that weren’t typical Oscar bait.
I can see that happening, daveylow.
As Holmes himself might say: “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable…”
“…must be true.”
Ryan, do you have the splendid Annotated Sherlock Holmes set edited by Leslie S. Klinger with a foreword by John Le Carre? If not, you should treat yourself.
I hope Julie and Julia makes it to the list! My fave film of the year.
Are you including “Crazy Heart” in your thought process?
Can Colin Firth be such a contender yet A Single Man be ignored with ten nominees? Was it really that bad? (I beg to differ!)
I’m not sure on “An Education” being nominated. It’s a very light, mostly forgettable little trifle with a dynamite lead performance and a very good supporting one, but not much more. I can see it easily fading, if it hasn’t already.
AN Education is far more Academy-friendly than the urban black miseryfest Precious.
the lovely bones is still the movie im holding out for
I urge everyone to check out a small package of a delight….Chile’s La nana (The Maid)…starring an unforgettable, comical turn by Catalina Saavedra in the title role. She was unbelievable and was by far the best performance (transfomation, really) I’ve seen all year. It’s a shame Chile’s submission was just another political film…the history of its military regime (or other forms of it) has already been expended on the film front.
I’d like to see Saavedra nominated. It’s a weak year. It could happen.
I LOVED The Maid!!! very good movie, surprisingly funny too…and a great performance!!! it felt like watching a documentary…all performances were very real and good.
If there were still 5 nominees and thus voters chose their T6 instead of T12:
Up in the Air 66
Precious 63
Hurt 42
Invictus 38
Education: 22
Nine: 20
Up: 14 (Nine & Up swap places.)
Serious/Basterds: 8
Bones: 7 (Serious up, Bones down.)
Mostly the same.
All I know is I am sick of Carey Mulligan’s face already and I haven’t even seen the movie. The problem with the early-season festival darlings is that people go see the good movies, proclaim them masterpieces, and then by the time the rest of the public and the average film critics (who do make up part of a film’s body of buzz) see the product, they’re sitting there with their arms folded.
You’re sick of Carey Mulligan’s face? Are you mental? She’s beautiful.
Why the lack of love for Bright Star? Rave reviews and has all the trappings of Oscar bait?? Its nominations in the people’s choice indicate some level of popular appeal. Is it being overlooked??
All I know is I am sick of Carey Mulligan’s face already and I haven’t even seen the movie.
==================================
you have no idea how sick I am from Precious without even seen it too. And God save you if you dare to say didint like it, the fans call you racist or superficial or even worse. Ugh, overrated hype is the worst.
Jumping on Holmes fanwaggon precisely because trailers make it look like a Razziefest. So Holmes, UITA, HL, Presh and Avatar for Top 5 (aka the ones with the shot at win). With A Single Man upset for any of them because it would be so cool to have Tom Ford nominated for BD (and his movie for BP) instead of, lets say, the Clint. Not hating the Clint, just bored by “it`s the Clint so it`ll get in and win”. Praying for Tarantino and IB surprise.
If you get sick of all the hype from these movies, then why do you read articles about them? It’s pretty easy to avoid the hype of Precious or Carey Mulligan. I am pretty sure at least 90% of the general public haven’t heard anything about them.
Will AD’s own Sultans of Bling do another list? I don’t remember doing one last year at all, and we tend to be better prognasticators than the ‘professionals.’
I would also add, like someone else did, Bright Star at a higher spot, and I’m not as incredibly optimistic as most are about Lovely Bones. I’m actually much more optimistic, particularly with the latter previews, when it comes to Avatar.
2007 was an odd year, the second time in all my years where my top pick matched the Oscar winner. I expect utter sentimental moralistic dross and nonsense from Invictus, but honestly, putting Up in the Air and Nine on here is so disheartening – they are all such Hollywood whoring type films – what could they possibly say to me?
I don’t think they are going to nominate an animated film when it has its’ own category now. I sound like a broken record…but…
That is the way they think. AND the actor’s branch does NOT like animation creeping in as I’ve stated before…Some things never change. They don’t want to be replaced by cartoons. Ditto Avatar. 20 mins. of which I’ve seen and it was atrocious.
“Nine” was also going to sneak this week to a non-press, general public audience – And there was something wrong with the print! So it didn’t!!!
I do think one of the ten is going to be a foreign film that was not nominated by its’ own country. Either “Coco Avant Chanel”(I know, I know, I’m a broken record) or “Broken Embraces”. BE has not opened yet and CAC just went national yesterday. And BOTH are Sony Pictures Classics! They’ve got everything this year.
CBS nightly news with Katie Couris did a whole segment on “Precious” and it’s a NEWS program! That rarely happens! And Gabby Sidibe was their “Person of the Week” and they were mentioning the O word over and over. No. Not Oprah. Oscar.
And the Village Voice just did a piece on Woody Harrelson for best supp. actor in “The Messenger” Just saying…
Tufas’ thoughts
This is, to me, by far, the worst year for Oscar since, well… Ever (for as long as I remember). I look at that list and can’t find one film I can get excited about as far as “Best Picture” goes.
The only films I’m remotely interested in are Up (though not Pixar’s best, at all), The Hurt Locker and Inglorious Basterds (should win something). I get it, Precious is filling in for the Little-Movie-That-Could category this year, but I’m still not interested.
Only other films I would Top 10 are Watchmen (I’m alone with that one, I’m sure) and Star Trek. Only films I am looking forward to (still) are Avatar and Invictus (don’t count Eastwood out).
So, all and all, a sad poor year for me at the movies. Here’s hoping 2010 brings back the directors, the actors, the epics, etc, cause 2009 sure didn’t
T.
Yes, I would agree. It has been a very poor year. Most of the Oscar possibles are movies that I would not even bother watching on TV let alone in a theater. The best films of the year so far for me were Up, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek and Watchmen, and I still have high hopes for The Lovely Bones, Sherlock Holmes and Avatar. But none of the other pictures merit a moment of my time.
Karger has Invictus at #1. Firth and Streep at #1
Twilight Saga: New Moon will make more money than all 10 of these films combined .
And if the awards were voted for by the entire public , it would win , crushing everything else .
Here is my problem with the film festivals: Everyone who goes to them is biased. They expect to see “the best movies,” “the Oscar contenders.” They like feeling like they’re the first ones in on something big, so of course they will convince themselves that a lot of these movies are better than they actually are. It’s just human nature.
Then they tell all their friends and readers that they just saw a bunch of “incredible!” movies at the big festival. Well of course they’re “incredible” -how can they not be with that pervasive miasma of incrediblosity surrounding them in the festival atmosphere? Seriously, how many times do festival attendees come back and say “My God, virtually every picture was disappointing in some way”? I think they dare to say that at Cannes or Sundance now, but never at Toronto or London which now seem to be the new “it” festivals.
But when these films get released into the wild with actual rank-and-file newspaper critics who don’t get to go to Toronto or London, and with ordinary audiences of course, the festival glow begins to wear off. Which is why so many “festival favorites” get left behind at Oscar time.
#39 “Twilight Saga: New Moon will make more money than all 10 of these films combined .
And if the awards were voted for by the entire public , it would win , crushing everything else .”
As it should!
Since when was “the entire public” comprised of 12–14 year-old girls, Bambi?
I don’t buy the argument that UP automatically won’t get in because animated films have their own category now. People are still pissed (and rightfully so) that WALL-E didn’t get in last year, particularly since THE READER was mediocre.
If the nominees were announced right now, it’d be in. Easily.
Dan wrote: “but honestly, putting Up in the Air and Nine on here is so disheartening – they are all such Hollywood whoring type films – what could they possibly say to me?”
I wouldn’t say Up in the Air is a typical Hollywood film at all. It’s a very smart, entertaining comedy with a great cast. I don’t know if it’s really Best Picture material–but it’s certainly one of the better films to be released this year so in a weak year it deserves to be nominated.
Hun(ter), everyone knows that Twi-moms are not 12-14 years old girls but grown women. So,yeah, Twilight fandom is much bigger than anti-Twinuts prefer to believe and it isn`t just women who are into the saga. You can find many male geeks going “It`s romantic shit but I`ll see it for werewolves because I love werwwolves and trailer actually looks pretty good.” Those are closet Twinuts for they secretly enjoy this wonderful and incredible book&movie phenom but have to trash it aloud because they think it`s cool. So, yeah, Twilight is here to stay and fandom is growing so rapidly you`ll be amazed at New Moon`s boxoffice.
Karger was saying it was Meryl Streep last year, too. Meryl is his knee-jerk reaction to Best Actress every season now, it seems. He’ll keep saying it, too, until she wins..
Oh, and SUDDENLY “Julia and Julie” is back playing at my local multi-plex…hmmm…
The Gurus have Carey Mulligan at #1. Then Meryl is #2.
Gabby S. is #3. Saiorse Ronan is #4( a performance that remains unseen still) and Helen Mirren, chewing up the Russian landscape at #5. THEN they have Abby Cornish at #6!
With Audrey Tautou nowhere in sight!:(
Morgan – festival favourites are sometimes way beyond Hollywood – Whale Rider and Let the Right One In are good examples. Also, The Lives of Others was a huge “festival hit”. Are you going to say it’s over-hyped? Cause that would be kinda ingenuous. Other times they are quite stupid – Juno, for example. Notice that it’s the one’s that are as stupid as Hollywood is generally that are recognized at the Oscars.
That makes, in a way, Keisha Castle-Hughes nomination in best actress catagory even more exceptional.
I wouldn’t count out Nine. Day-Lewis is in this. We’re talking about Daniel Day-Lewis…the guy doesn’t do many projects, but when he does you have to expect it will be in the good-great range.
The movie isn’t really my bag at all, but I can’t discount it until I see it though.
I haven’t been following this awards season that closely, but is there no one out there making a strong case for Star Trek making the top 10? I don’t think I’ve had a more entertaining and fully-satisfying movie-going experience this year. Well-casted, scripted, edited, thrilling, funny, and a phenomenal score by Giachinno. Anyone else agree?
Yes, I agree
“But none of the other pictures merit a moment of my time.”
You clearly haven’t seen “A Serious Man” or “Bright Star.” Those movies alone make this year a formidable one.
I think this is shaping up to be a very good year. I’ve seen a bunch of films already that would merit serious consideration for my BP lineup, although not all of them are Oscar’s cup of tea.
The Hurt Locker
Bright Star
Where the Wild Things Are
District 9
Coraline
Two Lovers
O’Horten
A Serious Man
Moon
Star Trek
Summer Hours
Plus I’m greatly anticipating The Road, Lovely Bones, A Single Man, White Ribbon, An Education, Precious, Up in the Air, The Messenger, Soul Kitchen… to name a few more. Nothing wrong with this year!
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