EW’s Dave Karger takes a look at Precious’ opening numbers and comes up with the possibility, I think for the first time in the mainstream press, that this film could be the frontrunner. However, he doesn’t come out and says he thinks it is – just that the possibility is there:
Playing in just 18 theaters, Precious grossed a phenomenal $1.8 million, according to studio estimates. If those numbers hold, Precious will become only the third live-action to score a per-theater average of over $100,000, following in the heels of multiple Oscar nominees Dreamgirls and Brokeback Mountain. Considering all of this was accomplished by a film by a relatively new director with no big movie stars in it, it’s an amazing achievement. It was well on its way to becoming a Best Picture nominee already, but now Precious is seeming more and more like a front-runner. The question now: Can it distinguish itself from Dreamgirls (which missed out on a Best Picture nod) and Brokeback Mountain (which lost to Crash) and actually win? Between Invictus, The Hurt Locker, The Lovely Bones, Up in the Air, and Nine, it certainly seems to have some stiff competition.
Up in the Air is really the crouching tiger, hidden dragon here. The studio has done a great job of quieting the film’s hype – and Jason Reitman has been traveling all over the US and abroad giving q&a’s and screenings of the film. He is one hard-working dude. But as Karger says, the race is starting to look more solid.
No matter what anyone says, no matter how much they want to believe it isn’t true, no matter how many times people tell you that the National Board of Review doesn’t matter — they do matter and they will especially matter this year. The NBR and the Critics Choice are the two groups that will deliver a solid top ten of best pictures that could start to help the Academy’s daunting task of finding ten. I do suspect that one or two titles will sneak into the Oscar race that none of us sees coming (there will always be that person who steps up and says “I saw it coming.”)
The Golden Globes will offer ten but they will be split between comedy/musical and drama. The American Film Institute will also offer ten, as will the many critics’ groups. The NBR is usually first and therefore it can have significance. You can get mad about it if you’d like but it doesn’t change what I’ve seen over the past decade of doing this.
It is perhaps too soon to know about the films that no one has seen. They will have to start screening them to get on some of these early lists, unless their strategy is to avoid the many pre-Oscar awards.
25 Responses for "Precious Kills at the Box Office"
18 of the past 20 BP winners were either the highest grossing nominee or 2nd highest grossing nominee by the time Oscar night rolled around
http://www.thecornercinema.com/?p=947
10 nominees will twist that factoid, with films like Up being nominated but not in the running. But nevertheless, its a good gauge.
I’m currently predicting a 65m+ total for Precious but a lot of depends on how Lionsgate rolls the film out and how it plays outside the major markets.
“I do suspect that one or two titles will sneak into the Oscar race that none of us sees coming (there will always be that person who steps up and says “I saw it coming.”)”
Are we counting Crazy Heart in this? I don’t know what’s left that could pop up. I mean, someone would have some inkling, no matter how small.
“The question now: Can it distinguish itself from Dreamgirls (which missed out on a Best Picture nod) and Brokeback Mountain (which lost to Crash) and actually win? Between Invictus, The Hurt Locker, The Lovely Bones, Up in the Air, and Nine, it certainly seems to have some stiff competition.”
Lets see how unseen movies peform with critics and audiences first, before declaring them a stiff competition, shall we? This is from the same magazine that has Viggo Mortensen listed as a Long Shot. Sorry but can`t take them seriously.
Precious boxffice is outstanding. In will be in the top 7 next weekend and it goes wide on 20th.
No, Presh, don`t go wide on 20th! The biggest and bestest movie of the year is coming out on that day! Nooooo, run away from New Moon!
When I first saw the trailer months ago, I knew it was something special. I’m so excited that it’s performing well – it may not be a “Greek Wedding” in terms of gross, but it may just cross over.
If enough “too busy to see movies until they’re on netflix” people hear about it, it could easily perform like Slumdog did – theatres full of soccer moms and older couples that “heard about this good movie”.
I don’t think Precious will suffer much by opening against New Moon. These film cater to completely different audiences. Precious is already a box office “story” so it won’t matter that the film
will not going to open at No.1.
If this film makes 50 to 70 Mil is will be one of the biggest B.O. stories of the year outside of “Paranormal Activity”.
How can the box office performance of Precious be compared to that of Paranormal Activity? Precious is produced by two powerful producers, Oprah and Tyler Perry. The other film was produced and made by unknowns on a shoestring budget.
I’m happy for Precious because it is a “black” woman’s movie….all the women are acting their asses off…and they are what makes the movie.
Precious wasn’t produced by Oprah and Tyler Perry. They came on board after it won at Sundance.
Anyway, Precious ISN’T going wide on the 20th. It’s going nationwide. Several small parts all over the country, that way they will increase the WOM and potential crossover audiences. I guarantee it will not be in any more than 400. I’m guessing 150 on the 20th. That way it won’t peak too early and will be at it’s widest when the nominations are announced. Lionsgate is not rushing.
Daveylow
Tyler and Oprah had zero to do with the making of “Precious”. They have aided in the visibility of the film since it was acquired by Lionsgate after Sundance. The roll out for this film is has been slow and calculated, only showing in roughly 18+ theaters this week. It’ll slowly expand before going wide in a few weeks.
“Precious” by no means is a “mainstream” film, costing less than $10 million to make. Sure, “Paranormal Activity” had a nearly nothing budget but they are both independent films that no one expected audiences to see. Take a look at the reviews and talkbacks after Sundance, nearly everyone questioned it’s box office viability due to it’s dark subject matter and unproven cast. If I recall, David Poland said the film was “too black” and too dar to be a financial success or awards contender and several others echoed his sentiment.
“Precious” is getting amazing WOM despite limited release, and Lionsgate has been doing the right thing in slowly rolling it out.
I will be utterly shocked if it doesn’t make it to at least the $75-100 million range by the time the Oscars roll around.
Anyone who thinks the film is “too black” is an idiot. I know a hell of a lot of white people who can’t wait to see this movie and with Oprah backing it, it will get the Minivan/Soccer Moms into the theater to see it. I don’t know about how Oscar voters will view it, but the box office will be stellar.
Also, going against “New Moon” won’t hurt it a bit. Counter-programming against big blockbuster movies has worked out well in the past for smaller movies.
Just got back from it, and the theater was packed to the brim. Film received a hearty applause after it was over and you could tell it went over quite well.
I thought it was very, very powerful with two tremendous performances from Sidibe and Mo’Nique. You’ll swear you’re watching a documentary about this girl’s life, that’s how authentic it feels. It’s also why the fantasy sequences don’t really work, because it feels like a director indulging in his own hyper-stylized flourishes when the rest of the movie is so gritty and real.
But it’s really quite good, although I have to say I’m with Sally about not knowing how to feel at the end. I understand it’s a slice of life, no-holds-barred look into this girl’s awful situation, but by the end you don’t feel all that much has changed, that her situation hasn’t really gotten any better. I think there may not be enough of an “uplift,” if you will, for voters to make this Best Picture.
#12 – I thought the fantasys were “overdone” and distracting to a degree.
I had several issues with the movie. One, it didn’t tug at my heart strings like the trailer did. I just wasn’t feeling it. When she walked out of the welfare office with her two kids on her hip, I shrugged and I should have cried in joy. So the ending just wasn’t done very well. However, I can appreciate that the actresses gave it their all. Monique is still visible now, that’s how powerful her performance is…
It did feel like a documentary in some parts but it also felt like a Lifetime/Hallmark movie.
#11 — I don’t think it will make $100Mil — that’s wishful thinking. It will probably taper off at $40-60. Because? The buzz will die down and there will be pirated copies floating around. Esp. in the black community. Black people get pirated copies of black movies quite quickly.
And — there will be controversy among black community that it depicts the community in a less than stellar light. There will be a LOT of controversy and commentary coming.
I agree with you about the ending. Didn’t like how it was executed.
I actually LOVED the ending. It gives you room to infer. The film is about hope and the possibility of a better future. When she walks out that door and leaves her mother and the social worker behind… she’s leaving her past behind her for the “possibility” of a much better life.
Because the film felt like documentary I thought the ending was quite fitting. The writer and director don’t tie everything up in a perfect little bow and give the audience the answers.
I’m still sticking by my Precious/Bigelow split. I’ve had a strong feeling that Precious would “crossover”. Despite the fact that it doesn’t seem like it has the ingredients for a hit film, it will become a film that it is important to see – like Schindler’s List. That’s because it’s well made, well acted, worthy and liked by Oprah. It speaks the language of Zeitgeistese.
“Precious will become only the third live-action to score a per-theater average of over $100,000, following in the heels of multiple Oscar nominees Dreamgirls … The question now: Can it distinguish itself from Dreamgirls “
This might be the most bizarre comparison of the season so far. Can Precious distinguish itself from Dreamgirls? Gee, dunno, can Schindler’s List distinguish itself from The Sound of Music? I get all those Nazis mixed up in my mind.
Besides, Dreamgirls did not have a slow platformed indie-insider roll-out. There were VIP screenings on Dec 15 (with astronomical ticket prices of $25, trying to turn it into an “event”).
But Dreamgirls was in 800 theaters only a week later (for Christmas), and 2200 screens by January.
Two movies could not be more UN-alike, in tone, budget, style, popular appeal, and in a hundred other ways.
The Precious/Brokeback parallels are also hard to see. Brokeback Mountain has 16 perfect scores of 100 on Metacritic. Precious has 4.
I guess one similarity might be to question whether Ernest Borgnine will find sex with Precious any more appealing than sex between two men. Something tells me he won’t.
after seeing up in the air in september, i realized i would spend the rest of 09 finding a better movie.
precious and a single man, both movies i saw right after have come close.
however, unlike up in the air (which featured some big time promotion during mad men tonight) and a single man, everyone i know – even my family members who see movies like mall cop and 2012 are super stoked for precious.
Prominent advertising for The Road tonight during Mad Men too.
(I’ll be happy if there’s a movie this season half as fascinating as this week’s episode.)
IMO the American public wants to see an Uplifting movie, fun movie vs. a dark sadistic movie….if you recall a couple of years ago, No Country? It won the award, but the public stayed away from all the violence….Hollywood be damned….leave the Precious type of movies for TV/cable. Precious will make it to the Oscars only because of the 10 slot….if it was the 5 slot…it wouldn’t be there. The actresses will be there too.
I think you are completely wrong on this one Sally. “Precious” is definitely a Top 5 contender and it baffles me that you find “Precious” sadistic. I found the film very uplifting.
I think a film like “Million Dollar Baby” which was a critical and financial success, but was also a very dark film foils your theory, as well.
#17 “Can Precious distinguish itself from Dreamgirls? Gee, dunno, can Schindler’s List distinguish itself from The Sound of Music? I get all those Nazis mixed up in my mind.”
Quote of the month.
I loved the ending of Precious – it really didn’t wrap up anything neat and tidy for me….
when i first saw it, I said to my friend after the screening….Precious probably won’t see her children grown….it made me more sad than hopeful.
Premature I know, but I think a GG – BP Drama and SAG Ensemble win (which looks likely) could boost Precious’s BP Shot.
You couldn’t pay me enough money to sit through this! Life is too short to inflict my life with fictionalizations of sadistic misery that I’m aware is actually happening in real life. Especially child abuse! I have a strong stomach for say The Holocaust or gay bashing or even spousal abuse in some cases (though the latter can be too much in some graphic cases, like the Oldman film I turned off after less than half an hour), but I tend to avoid child abuse films like the plague! I didn’t care to see the child abuse in SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (didn’t give a crap it was the BP frontrunner), and this sounds waaaay worse.
Oh, and movieman, if you’re baffled that someone finds a film about a character being mocked, raped, and abused her whole life to be sadistic, and you think it’s uplifting just because it has an open ending that you personally chose to interpret as optimistic, well then expect to have your proverbial jaw on the floor all awards season, ‘cuz I’ve heard MANY people describe it with the grimness Sally expressed (they may differ on whether they loved it or hated it, but they all certainly feel it’s sadistic).
ps: I don’t mean to be cruel, and I’m sure the girl who plays Precious does an impressive job, but I can’t look at her without thinking our resident batshit village idiot Afrikkka thinks she could have played Mulligan’s part in AN EDUCATION. Boy oh boy, Never underestimate the rebellious appeal of unabashed rampant idiocy!
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