It’s probably a no-brainer that Avatar is take that title home so perhaps it isn’t worth doing an actual contest on this, but I really like the way Loyal has laid it all out at the Corner Cinema, showing that the lowest grossing of the nominated five has won in a long while. But the highest grossing only sometimes wins.
Of the possibilities, which do you think will crack $100 mil? Obviously cracking that number means different things to different productions. A film like Precious getting anywhere near that would be extraordinary circumstances. But these films, I expected, will do at least $100:
1. Avatar
2. Sherlock Holmes
3. The Lovely Bones
4. Nine
5. Invictus
6. Up in the Air (or very close to it)
Which films have already gotten there? (according to Box Office Mojo)
1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $300 mil
2. Up, a staggering $293 mil
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $121 mil
4. Inglourious Basterds $119 mil
5. District 9 $115 mil
And then the squeakers:
1. Public Enemies $97 mil
2. Julie & Julia $93 mil
3. Coraline $75 mil
4. Where the Wild Things Are $69
30 Responses for "Predict This Year’s Highest Grossing Oscar Contender"
Wow! I didn’t realize Up got to 293 mil. That’s a good 70 million more than Wall-E which I could guarantee was probably 6th or 7th in voting last year for B.P.
In order of the B.P’s: Avatar, Nine, Lovely Bones, Invictus, Dist.9 (I have a gut feeling on this). I see at least two big Hollywood entries. Hence, Avatar & Dist. 9. I see An Education and A Serious Man falling to the wayside or just one of them getting in. I think the Academy might pencil An Education as Mulligan’s perf. only. So maybe A Serious Man on the Coen’s pedigree gets in or just like An Education gets Or. Screenplay nom only.
I’m looking at: Hurt Locker, Nine, Invictus, Lovely Bones, Precious, Up in the Air (The safe bets)
And the rest for the final 4: Up (looks very good), Crazy Heart (the last real contender to make a push), A Serious Man (eh, not sure about this), Dist. 9 (very well received with 120 mil. box office & 200 mil. worldwide), Avatar (looking very good again), An Education (looking soft outside of Mulligan & Molina maybe), A Single Man
Invictus a $100 mio movie? How?
Precious may get there if it has a Slumdog run which isn`t impossible. Markting push on this is tremendous.
Not sold on Nine`s boxoffice. Doesn`t look charming like Chicago, Mama Mia and HSM.
Lovely Bones maybe. It has fandom but it also has a slow rollout atypical for SFX movies with fanbase. Weird release that works for small movies that need WOM. Not sure how this strategy will work here.
UITA very likely thanks to holiday legs.
Sherlock Holmes very likely thanks to holiday unless Chipmunks 2 upset more than one big movie.
Avatar passes $100 mio. Which means nothing cause it needs to pass minimum $300 mio to be considered a success. And there are Chipmunks 2.
Dude I don’t know what everyone is ramping and raving about Avatar, it looks like a flop. In 2004, everyone was ramping and raving for Alexander, and look what it ended up being. Seriously, the movie looks and sounds creative, but just looking at the trailer of the movie, it just looks horrible. Seriously, really cheesy.
3D should pull it through $100 mio. The rest depends on WOM. But 3D has been good to movies this year especially overseas. Geez, Ice Age made almost $700 mio overseas alone which is a huge jump in profit and it`s thanks to 3D.
Nine, because of everyone involved, and Avatar, because it’s James Cameron. lol.
I’d be happy if Up In The Air did well. It has Clooney on its side, but there’s a lot of films coming out around that time frame. If it continues to do well with the critics, AND makes enough cash, it’d be Precious’ main competition.
PRECIOUS.
Sherlock Holmes an Oscar contender? Very doubtful.
Up has made $660 millions worldwide as of today…beating Wall-E by $140 and placing only behind Finding Nemo as far as Pixar is concerned.
Considering it still hasnt open in Japan a huge market for animation,it could make as much as $750.
It’s word-of-mouth is beyond terrific…i have little doubt it will have the same reaction by the academy.
I really can’t understand why people seem to think that Precious won’t gross at least $100 million. First, it’s a far, far easier movie than it’s being made out to be. It gives the audience tough situations to swallow, but they’re all extremely easy to digest. Second, once it starts the inevitable and boring march to winning Best Picture by winning all the precursors, people will flock to it. Third, a la Slumdog, this is the movie that all the “regular” folks will watch so they can feel good about themselves for supporting one whole “indie” movie this year. And fourth, Precious has a huge built-in audience in the African-American community. If Madea Goes to Freaking Jail can gross $90 million, believe me, Precious can ring up more than that.
Sherlock will make $100 million, but won’t be a Best Picture contender. Also, I’m starting to get sick of the assumed success of Avatar. SO much about that film looks like Box Office disaster to me.
“UITA very likely thanks to holiday legs.”
@ Bambi #2
George asks that you pay his nickname due respect: Mr. Holiday Legs
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Money is always fun. But over the past 5 years, only 2 Best Picture nominees had earned $100 mil before nominations were announced:
* Benjamin Button
* The Departed
That’s 2 out of 25 in the $100 mil club.
(and each, just barely: $104 mil & $125 mil)
Meanwhile, 18 out of 25 BP nominees had earned less than $50 mil before nomination.
Milk
The Reader
Frost/Nixon
Michael Clayton
Slumdog Millionaire
No Country for Old Men
The Queen
Atonement
Babel
Munich
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Brokeback Mountain ($51 mil)
Finding Neverland
There Will Be Blood
Letters from Iwo Jima
Capote
Sideways
Million Dollar Baby
(6 of those had earned less than $10 million!)
Over the past 5 years:
72% of BP nominees earned less than $50 mil
only 8% earned more than $100 mil
I understand that expanding the field to 10 is supposed to allow more popular blockbusters in the mix. But it’s yet to be proven if that stimulus package is going to work.
We’re still probably better off looking at the Under-50 Club than the 100+ Club for our nominees.
Because one of the major reasons to seek an Oscar nomination or a win is to help push the struggling mid-range earners into a more successful run.
In twenty years no BP winner has been the lowest grosser. Of course, as Ryan points out, BP nomination gives can give the pic a significant boost.
GoodFellas is probably the only lowest grossing movie that actually had a legitimate chance at the win and it should have won.
Another factoid: In twenty years the only BP nominees to earn over $200 mil before nomination have been the LOtR phenoms, the Titanic phenom, and Forrest Gump.
Only 4 out of 100 films.
Not even Gladiator had earned more than $200 before nomination.
It’s easier for Ishtar to pass through the eye of a needle than it is for a huge blockbuster to gain entry to the heavenly ranks of BP nominees.
Also, when movies that seemingly had narrow BO appeal hit big voters take notice. If they are going to vote for an indy they want to make sure it is the one people know about. I don’t think TWBB would have won in absence of NCfOM.
I agree, dela. If No Country for Old Men never existed, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly would have been the 5th nominee. And the winner would have been Michael Clayton or Atonement.
Oh, how could I forget The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Would have been nice if it had found its place in the top 5.
Ryan, I love your numbers!!!
Ryan, what do you think of the release strategy for The Lovely Bones? For all we know this has more to do with the fact that Paramount has no money and wants to move as much of the cost to January as possible.
This might sound pretty crazy, but I think that Precious could crack $100 million – certainly, worldwide.
Just a feeling that I have.
“Sherlock Holmes an Oscar contender? Very doubtful.”
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I’m so agree with this.
the trailer looks awful, Downey is good tho.
BP :
PRECIOUS
Lovely Bones
Up in The Air
Avatar
not sure for others now.
Lovely Bones cost $100m and should receive a PR campaign sufficient to open $30-40m.
I’m not sure about Avatar. I’m cautiously optimistic about that movie doing well.
And Precious will be a big hit because Oprah’s name is attached to it. Never underestimate the O factor, people!
Oprah connection didn’t help Beloved. But, the big difference is Precious’ subject matter is very much like a patented Oprah episode. I am reminded of an episode from years ago that dealt with the same matter (the young woman actually gave birth to her father’s child in the bathtub and lay their for hours).
Also, viewers are going to remember Mo’Nique’s very emotional appearance on Oprah (in connection to a Martin Lawrence movie I think). This is going to send all those Oprah-fanatic housewives to theaters.
I am not sure Precious will attract a lot of audience overseas, just like J§J.
But it does not matter anyway, Precious will have 4 or 5 nominations.
Including one nomination for either Monique or Sibide, but not for both.
#18 “Ryan, what do you think of the release strategy for The Lovely Bones? For all we know this has more to do with the fact that Paramount has no money and wants to move as much of the cost to January as possible.”
Paramount should shut the f*** up about not having money! What no money? Rememeber that piece of shit Transformers:ROTF? And glorious Star Trek? And unexplicable phenomenon Paranormal Activity? All huge money makers. So whose new mansion or private island ate up all the money that they have to a)move Shutter Island to February to compete with Winter Olympics and b) give LB a release strategy for low-cost low-key Oscar wannabes? Bunch of phonies!
Avatar will make lots of money, but – honestly – it´s far from being a serious Oscar contender…
Nine will make money.
Bambi, Star Trek will not make any money.
Transforners 2 won’t get a best pic nod, but it may get a few in the technical categories, sound, viz effects. It’s made 399 million. Easily the top grosser of 2009. The Hangover has made 270 million !! Made on a 35 million dollar budget with no A list stars. That’s an incredible feat ! And if Todd Phillips only had a 10% share in the gross…that dude is a very rich man now.
Sherlock Holmes is as much an Oscar contender as GI Joe is.
And @ Dan: Star Trek already made shitload of money.
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