The Wrap’s Steve Pond runs down the predictions thus far. He does a good job, I think, of summing it all up and reminding his readers that there are still some big question marks left dangling. This is going to change within the next few weeks. Take a deep breath. We must once again invoke the great Iggy Pop who once said at a concert to his disgruntled fans, “it’ll all be over soon!” And then somebody threw a beer bottle at him.
Pond says:
With four months to go until the 82nd Academy Awards, can we really say with confidence that the Best Picture winner will be “Up in the Air” or “Precious” or “The Hurt Locker,” the acting winners Jeff Bridges, Carey Mulligan, Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique?
I hope not. I hope things come along to shock us all, to catch us pundits flat-footed, to throw the race into turmoil.
One of the hardest things about caring about the Oscar race is fighting the urge to get bored with the frontrunners. It’s a terrible affliction. No matter what year it is, no matter what films are nominated – we all get pretty sick of them too early on. That’s why it is so fun to cheer for not just the underdog but the least likely contender.
16 Responses for "Oscar Predictions Yearn for Surprises"
I think the most boring thing is not that we are confronted with clear frontrunners at this point (I don´t have the feeling, not even for Christoph Waltz in the supporting category), but that nearly every oscar expert is predicting the same 10-12 potential nominees in the mayor category!
The same with Steve Pond. It sounds like a broken record, just the same the same the same again and again…BORING!
Where are the folks to take some risky picks?
People might take risky picks on down the road but no one wants to look like an idiot.
Is Carey Mulligan really that far ahead of Gabourney Sidibe? I watched An Education last night and her role isn’t that showy. She doesn’t have any “oscar clip” moments and I think when it comes down to voting, more people are going to go with Gabby
I wish people would try and understand that straight white males (the majority of the Academy) are not going to see a movie like Precious unless they have a gun pointed at their heads.
“I hope not. I hope things come along to shock us all, to catch us pundits flat-footed, to throw the race into turmoil.”
Shock us by having for the winner a movie that everyone predicted for the winner the moment it went into production? Like Invictus, Nine and LB? Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
Nobody saw Waltz coming, when it comes to actors. Presh was under the radar before Sundance. UITA was under the radar before Venice and TIFF. HL surprised when it came out. Who knew Mulligan? OTOH, Meryl was proclaimed the winner since it was announced she`d play Julia Child. The Clint and Jackson were touted BD and their movies BP just because they are The Clint and Jackson. Nine cast was shoo-in the moment it was cast. Now these are trully boring contenders because everyone has been expected them to get noms and produce a winner since forever. On whose payroll is this guy?
I’d love to see Bridges win, but let’s not give him the award immediately for a movie that nobody had heard of last month. I still think Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon will end up being the favorites.
The bad thing about getting bored with frontrunners is that when there are snubs of any kind (Bacall, Blanchett, The Dark Knight, Brokeback, Dreamgirls) people are upset for years to come. I even vowed not to watch when TDK was snubbed (but I did anyway of course). Yes it makes things more interesting, but part of the heart dies with each snub lol
I think Carey’s speech to Emma Thompson about the purpose of studying is a great Oscar clip. It’s a heartfelt monologue with range and tears.
Carey Mulligan is maintaining her lead. Gabby is the flavor…They’ll nominate her, but she’s not got a life-long career of a movie star ahead of her, like Carey does…
Meryl’s seeming weaker by the minute.
Karger had these three in his EW piece which is also excellent BTW. 1)Carey 2) Gabby and 3)Meryl then he lists a bunch, just to be equivocal and cover all the bases.
He does the same for BA 1) Clooney 2) Firth and 3) Freeman…Freeman and “Invictus” keep slipping too, let me tell you…If it’s more like than “worthier-than-thou” Denzel movie of a couple of years back…the Academy won’t respond to its’ Apartheid themes when they’ve got “Precious” and Mo’Nique on their front burner.
Both Steve Pond and Karger differ WILDLY in the Supp. categories…
And just for the lastest word on “TLB”…I was asking someone today if they’d seen it and they response was “No” but I was sure they HAD seen it and the subject was changed, too quickly for comfort I thought to “I read the book! I loved the book! Did you read the book?” and I replied “No” and then “It’s a VERY difficult book to film.”
Uh-oh…
Personally, I think the subject matter sounds dire…and I got a really bad vibe from the above- mentioned tap-dancing ^…
It just may not work as a movie…is what I got from all this.
HOWEVER, a film that has jumped WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY up today is the 100%Rated “The Messenger”(!?!) Despite it’s down-beat, even difficult subject, Iraq, the critics are throwing 100% ripe tomatoes into the air!
And who benefits from this? Woody Harrelson in Supporting for his hard-boiled Sargeant for sure.
Even Karger had him in his “List of possiblities.”
The rising Ben Foster in the leading role? As the tortured newbie who has to deliver the messages of war death to the next-of-kin?
The writer/director who was a member of the Israeli army himself? The writing for sure.
And then there’s the always nominatable Samantha Morton, who’s simply one of the greatest actresses of our time, in a VERY sympathetic role.
Interestingly, Pond and Karger’s Supp…DON’T MATCH HARDLY at all. So that’s where the surprises are going to come.
And why do I believe that those “Unseen Four” are all going to disappoint? Like for instance, the way “Where the Wild Things Are” has…Wasn’t that supposed to be one of the top ten and now nobody has it? Just saying…
Hunter, ever heard of liberal guilt?
It sure helped Crash and Slumdog.
everyone knows the oscar loves surprises. it’s meryl’s year folks.
Hunter, your opinion on the surface is idiotic and completely without merit. I’m kind of tired reading some Oscar pundits say, “Precious won’t win because it won’t get watched by the white male members, who make up the majority.” Until the Academy lets us see how everyone voted, then we will never know. So to assume how some segment of the Academy vote, based on no knowledge whatsoever, is pure unadulterated ignorance. I happen to be a heterosexual, white male and I loved the book Push. I did get to see the movie this weekend, and right now (FYI: haven’t caught Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker) I would say it is the movie to beat. I can totally see it winning Picture/Actress/Supporting Actress/Adapted Screenplay.
Anyway, if the heterosexual, white males in the Academy voted the way you, Hunter, think they do, then Denzel Washington, Halle Berry, Morgan Freeman, ect. would never had WON Oscars, let alone get nominated. I pity your empty-minded rhetoric.
Sam, the problem Precious faces isn’t so much the fact that it’s a predominantly African-American film, but that it’s very female-centric. Seriously, how many members of the Academy are going to relate to an incredibly overweight young black woman who has a second child on the way before she’s even graduated high school? Not many. It can win for acting, but picture or director? I dont see it. This is simply another case of people jumping on the “little movie that could” bandwagon.
I hope that the massive talk of Firth & Moore, without talk of Ford & Single Man much, will help to make Ford/Single Man the pleasant surprise. It would be very unlikely though since Ford is completely new to directing; even a majority of the so-called debut-nominated directors had significant directing experience before a film – esp TV shows & plays.
Kendrick, Moore, and Mo’Nique seem to be declared It by everyone.
Will the studio even want to campaign for Mirren when they already have to campaign for Streep & Mulligan?
Interesting idea about Freeman/Damon though I doubt the studio will switch it so as to not compete with Informant!Damon and because Freeman is more respected in the industry…while multiple people seem to be putting their bets on Lovely Bones of The Four.
Oscar loves the flavor of the year. Sure, Carey Mulligan has the safer career but that just means she’ll have more chances at nabbing that Oscar. Gabourney won’t, so like Jennifer Hudson, she has the greater of chance of winning that Oscar
I want to see Bright Star with some major category noms
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