I was thinking about the Best Picture race while in the shower when my thoughts turned to Don Draper … no, not really. Well, yes really, but not relevant. The best picture ten will only really be divided once – and that is for the Golden Globes. They can only nominate five dramas and five musical/comedies. We know that Nine is assured to enter the race very strongly at that point, if it hadn’t already. This is not to be premature and assume it is in no matter what, but let’s just say it is in. The Globes is really where it will shine first. I think.
The Globes is where The Hangover might make an appearance. Yes, it’s true that when it was first announced that there would be ten Best Picture nominees, the first thing The Wrap’s Sharon Waxman said was, “Best Picture: The Hangover.” At the time, the concept of the Academy honoring that film seemed like an instant reputation killer (like of the Towering Inferno order), it now seems maybe not so crazy?
Let’s do a quick round-up of how we think the Best Pic nominations might go. Here are my best guesses – keep in mind we are all probably going to have some egg on our face when all is said and done, as we are predicting films no one has seen. This cannot be emphasized enough. It does make a difference. Expectations swell to unrealistic heights around this time of year. And by the way, it’s almost here: waking up at 5:30am, waiting patiently with the E! staff to stop blabbering and get to the nominations – the nerves, the vanity, the excitement, the inevitable let-downs – my heart will give out before it’s all over with. I am no spring chicken, people. Okay, let’s get to it. I am cheating and going with six nominees for drama.
Best Picture, Drama
Invictus
Up in the Air
A Serious Man or Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Precious
An Education
Alt. -The Lovely Bones - so you see it is really hard to get down to five without leaving out something substantial like A Serious Man. If you put it in, what gets bumped? AD reader Free informs uniformed me that Inglourious Basterds will compete in the drama category. Don’t make me bump the Jewish movie in lieu of the Nazi movie! Where would they put Inglourious Basterds if it got in? In comedy?!
Best Picture Comedy/Musical
500 Days of Summer
Nine
The Hangover
Julie & Julia
It’s Complicated
If Up in the Air is put in comedy, as has been suggested, that is going to be slightly problematic. Anyway, if all goes according to plan, Nine cleans up in this category anyway. If it comes down to Up in the Air vs. Nine there could be trouble. We’ll be doing more preliminary predictions as we creep closer to the first early wakeup call of the season.
64 Responses for "Prelim Golden Globes Comedy and Drama Shakedown"
I am joyfully expecting some egg in my face (if anybody remembers my prediction, which would be very surprising to me) in predicting that “Hurt Locker” will be snubbed by the HFPA.
It might land a nom at the Academy Awards (cause of the expanded field of ten), but it won´t do better with HFPA than…for example….Black Hawk Down.
Is Up in the Air and A Serious Man Comedy or Drama? Don’t they straddle the two?
I wouldn’t count out Bright Star nor A Single Man. They seem very Globes-ish.
Sasha, I think the Weinstein Co./Tarantino already announced they would be submitting INGLORIOUS in the drama category.
As much I hope I’m wrong, I do think HURT LOCKER will be snubbed in favor of Peter Jackson’s film. I think it will look something like this:
DRAMA
-Avatar
-Education, An
-Invictus
-Lovely Bones
-Precious
-Up in the Air
(they switch on and off with 6 nominees)
COMEDY
-(500) Days of Summer
-Hangover, The
-Julie & Julia
-Nine
Not sure about the fifth slot yet, but I don’t think it will go to It’s Complicated.
I am thinking A Serious Man could be Comedy.
A Serious Man, a reasonable fit for the Academy, is, however, way too Jewish for the HFP. It will be a very hard sit for them, as they say.
By the way, SHERLOCK HOLMES is a very Globe-friendly picture. It’s in a very good place: it has no expectations (The Lovely Bones) it isn’t an early frontrunner (Precious) and nobody is seeing it till Christmas. All it has to be is great fun and do business to get in.
I would imagine that both A Serious Man, and Up in the Air will most certainly fall under Comedy at the Globes.
Up in the Air will be comedy for sure, and Inglourious Basterds will be drama.
As Free said, it’s been confirmed that “Basterds” will compete in the drama category.
#3 “As much I hope I’m wrong, I do think HURT LOCKER will be snubbed in favor of Peter Jackson’s film.”
I agree because Globes suck up to big names. Not saying LB won`t be deserving of a nom, just that between a big name contender and a small or medium size one, both deserving, they would go for the big name because it`s a big name.
THE MEN STARS AT GOATS!!!!!!!!!!!!! (please)
Realistically The Hurt Locker is too small for the G.G. Lovely Bones gets in easily. And I’m not very convinced about An Education as a Best Picture contender. L. Actress, S. Actor, Screenplay maybe. No director, no Picture.
“Is Up in the Air and A Serious Man Comedy or Drama? Don’t they straddle the two?”
My guess is Up in the Air tips toward drama just because everyone wants to take it so seriously this season. A Serious Man is most definitely dark black humor. Even the saddest things in A Serious Man are brilliantly played for laughs.
my Heart beaaats…. Award Season, here we come!!!
You can never count on the Golden Globes only having a certain number of nominees. Sometimes a random category like Supporting Actress will have seven.
A few years ago they put Man on the Moon in the comedy category, just because it was about a comedian, when the movie itself was a drama. I wouldn’t be surprised if A Serious Man and Up in the Air went into the comedy category. I think that’s going to knock The Hangover out of the running (unless they do a longer list).
And, I see them snubbing 500 Days of Summer in favor of The Informant.
Julie and Julia
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
The Informant
Nine
Joschi, I do feel exactly the same!
To me, the MOST fun part of the year is the time between end of November to mid-december, when nobody knows hardly anything and the first precursor awards announce their choices.
In end of february, after all those dozens of guilds, when we have clear frontrunners right in front of the show, it´s much LESS fun.
But right now, it starts to get perfect!
I can see the Europeans digging A Single Man and Sherlock Holmes.
@ Dominik – I feel similarly about HFPA and “The Hurt Locker.” I think it could be like this year’s “Milk,” something that hits big with critics, other awards, and ultimately the Academy, but doesn’t really have a strong showing here. I think we have been predicting it with such confidence, but let’s not forget that there aren’t that many people outside our little blogosphere that even know it exists.
@ Hunter – Keep in mind that “Sherlock Holmes” will not be released until a week or so after the nominations are announced. Therefore, big business won’t have any effect here.
Edited: I thought Up was eligible but it isn’t.
Hangover
Nine
Julie & Julia
A Serious Man
(500) Days of Summer
It’s worth noting that both of Reitman’s other films (Juno and Thank You For Smoking) competed in Comedy/Musical.
The HFPA have a pretty twisted sense of dark humor and they enjoy seeing Americans portrayed in broad strokes, bordering on caricature. (Burn After Reading, Thank You for Smoking, In Bruges, The Squid and the Whale). So I can see the Golden Globes recognizing the sharp weirdness of A Serious Man, even if they laugh in all the wrong places and a lot it flies over their heads.
If Pride and Prejudice competed in the comedy category, I don’t see why A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds should be considered dramas. They’re both much funnier movies.
It doesn’t matter though; I just want (500) Days of Summer to win.
Good point, Jake D. I compared Reitman to Capra last year, and no matter how many deadly serious dark roads Capra went down, he was always considered a comedy director.
One thing about the Golden Globes musical/comedy category — they sometimes need to pad it out so it’s not too fluffy compared to the drama nominees. Charlie Wilson’s War, a covert CIA operation resulting in a million casualties? Heelarious!
If Hanna Schmitz sang in the bathtub, The Reader would be a musical at the Globes.
“Valling in luff again
Neffer vanted to
Vot am I to do?
Can’t help it”
every ad for a serious man claims it’s a comedy. although the film is based around struggle, i would hardly consider it a drama.
more importantly, up in the air is DEFINITELY a comedy. although the last act shifts more toward drama, the rest of the film has its wit factor cranked to 11. trust me, people were laughing so hard in the screening i went to, i missed several follow up lines to the punch lines. i would be more likely to call the informant, julie and julia, or for that matter, a serious man a drama than up in the air.
ryan, the thought of the reader: the musical! had me spit out my drink! hahahaha
In the Loop has a good shot seeing as the film did better overseas and they’re voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press. And it also got glowing reviews and is hysterical. The In Bruges of the year. The Hangover will NOT be nominated. No way in Hell.
500 Days of Summer
Nine
A Serious Man
Julie & Julia
In the Loop
Comedy or Musical:
500 Days of Summer
Nine
The Hangover
Julie & Julia
Up
Drama:
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
chrisw, unfortunately “up” is out of the picture categories because we have the animated film category. Interesting than films like “Persepolis” and “Waltz With Bashir” only compete for foreign category and not in animated because the language is different to English. Screw HFPA!!!
Drama Picture:
1. The Lovely Bones: Big Names, Story and theme
2. Precious: Early frontrunner
3. An Education: British spot
4. Invictus: Biopic and Eastwood
5. Inglorious Basterds: Box office hit, Weisntein and Brad Pitt
6. Bright Star: Wild Card and romantic piece
Alt: The Hurt Locker: Bigelow will did it but I’m not sure about the film.
Surprise: The Last Station
Comedy Film:
1. Nine: They love musicals: Sweeney Todd, Dreamgirls, Evita
2. Up in the Air: The big contender, George clooney
3. Julie & Julia: Meryl’s boost
4. (500) Days of Summer: Indie Comedy, Fox Searchlight
5. The Hangover: Box office hit
Alt: It’s Complicated: Remember Something’s Gotta Give…
Surprise: The Proposal: Well, box office hit, Ryan Reynolds, Betty White and Sandra Bullock
I like chrisw’s picks. Those seem Globe-y.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they put An Education in Comedy/Musical. Sure it wasn’t a comedy, but it did have a bunch of funny moments throughout the movie.
I’m sorry I just remembered them nominating Toy Story 2 and The Incredibles a few years back. Ummmm, let’s see…replace Up with Up in the Air and since Up in the Air has moved put Invictus in. As much as I liked A Serious Man, it’s not a “star” or “Globe” film. I would be shocked. Precious and The Hurt Locker are enough small films for them.
Comedy or Musical:
(500) Days of Summer
Nine
Up in the Air
Julie & Julia
It’s Complicated
Alt: The Informant!, A Serious Man
Drama:
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Invictus
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Alt: The Hurt Locker (best film of the year, so far), The Last Station
We’re hearing that Up in the Air will compete for the Drama team at the Globes. Adjust expectations accordingly.
I agree with Noah. If In the Loop has a shot anywhere its in the comedy categories at the Euro friendly Golden Globes.
God dammit, Ryan. I must do this again! OK, here we go.
Comedy or Musical:
Nine
500 Days of Summer
The Hangover
Julie & Julia
It’s Complicated
Drama:
Up in the Air
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Does anyone know how Sherlock Holmes will be presented as? Because if it is any good, and I mean any good, and if it’s placed in Comedy it will be nominated and whatever film between Julie & Julia and It’s Complicated is better received, that’s the 5th slot. I’m weary of putting both Precious and The Hurt Locker together because if Invictus is any good it will take one of their spots.
It gets even more intreguing when you think of performances re: Comedy category
Best Actress – Comedy
Two locks:
Zooey Deschanel
Meryl Streep
Maybes
Amy Adams
Sandra Bullock
One actress from Nine — Marion Cottiard?
Maya Rudolph – Away We Go
Best Actor – Comedy
Locks
George Clooney
Matt Damon
Daniel Day Lewis
Maybes
Alec Baldwin – Its complicated
Jason Bateman
Peter Capaldi – In the Loop
Bradley Cooper
Sasha Baron Cohen (he did win this last time around)
Robert DeNiro – Everybodys Fine
Ricky Gervais – Invention of Lying – he is, after all, hosting
Joseph Gordon Levitt – although the best thing about 500, his category is quite competitive
“Not saying LB won`t be deserving of a nom, just that between a big name contender and a small or medium size one, both deserving, they would go for the big name because it`s a big name.”
-Yeah, exactly what I meant. Remember when THE TWO TOWERS was nominated before anyone had even seen it and could judge if it was good or not? Same thing. Peter Jackson = automatic (for the Globes).
Drama:
Precious-Lock
Brothers-looks hopeful
An Education-lock
Lovely Bones-maybe
The Hurt Locker-maybe
Bright Star-hopefully,but maybe
A Single Man-hopefully,but maybe
Comedy:
500 Days-probably
Julie&Julia-lock
The Hangover-hopefully not,but a possibility because of its great success
Whip It-It would be great/cool, but probably not
The Proposal-hopefully
Up in The Air-most likely
Nine-lock
Sunshine Cleaning-maybe
Actress-Comedy (posibilities):
Zooey Deschanel-500 Days of Summer
Meryl Streep-Julie and Julia
Ellen Page-Whip It
Sandra Bullock-The Proposal
Marion Colltiard-Nine
Amy Adams-Sunshine Cleaning
Actress-Drama (posibilities):
Carey Mulligan-An Education
Julianne Moore-A Single Man
Abbie Cornish-Bright Star
Gabbie Sidibe-Precious
Natalie Portman-Brothers
I wasn’t aware that anyone was considering ‘Up in the Air’ anything but a comedy. I was certainly under the impression that I was watching a comedy. I certainly laughed like I was watching a comedy. Yes, it’s got a heavier tone than Reitman’s other two films, but it’s still a movie that’s supposed to make you laugh. If ‘In Bruges’ is a comedy, then ‘Up in the Air’ is definitely a comedy.
Full Predictions at The Awards Circuit
Check it out.
I think Up in the Air is a comedy too, Adam M. Especially by Golden Globes standards. The fact that we hear it could be pushed as a drama makes me yawn and resent the pretension.
The director of An Education called it a comedy.
Any possibility they the Globes remember Duplicity for Pic / Actor / Actress? It is a weak year for Comedy.
Don’t be surprised if Meryl Streep is a double-nominee for Best Actress in a Comedy.
Adventureland, for christ’s sake!
How can you not be expecting this wonderful little movie to pop-up?
Drama: Up in the Air
Lovely Bones
Precious
Invictus
Avatar
Director: Peter Jackson
Clint Eastwood
Jason Reitman
Rob Marshall
Kathryn Bigelow
Comedy: A Serious Man
It’s Complicated
Crazy Heart
Julie & Julia
Nine
Comedy/Musical Actress: Marion Cotillard
Meryl Streep…and others
Drama Actress: Gabourey Sidibe
Abbie Cornish
Saoirse Ronan
Helen Mirren
Carey Mulligan
Drama Actor: Viggo Mortensen
Jeremy Renner
Colin Firth
Morgan Freeman
George Clooney
Comedy Actor: Matt Damon
Daniel Day-Lewis
Jeff Bridges…and others
Supp Actress: Mo’Nique
Julianne Moore
Penelope Cruz
Susan Sarandon
Nicole Kidman [They’ve given her 7 Globe noms…] or Mariah Carey
Supp Actor: Alec Baldwin
Christoph Waltz
Stanley Tucci
Matt Damon
Alfred Molina or Christopher Plummer
I think that the campaigners know that a Drama nom means more than a Comedy/M nom. However, there are multiple categories to consider when choosing to campaign under C or D, and a Comedy/M Globe could mean more than a Drama nom.
Damon & Day-Lewis have never been nominated under comedy, while Bridges has, which could be an interesting match-up. I see a new Globe for Streep.
Drama:
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Precious
The Road
Comedy/Musical:
The Hangover
Julie & Julia
Nine
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
Don’t be surprised if Meryl Streep is a double-nominee for Best Actress in a Comedy.
*****
Is that allowed in the Globes? I know BAFTA allows double nominees?
It would be funny if she was nominated in Drama and Comedy and won both.
Also, Brothers might be a dark horse, for acting and drama nominations.
not related to this post so much but why is there no discussion of Inglorious Basterds for best original screenplay? it’s criminal. I loved 500 Days of Summer but there’s an ocean between the 2.
@ daveylow
yes – Leo was double nominated in 06 for Blood Diamond and Departed
So Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds are both competing in the drama category. Any official word on A Serious Man yet? Or, for that matter, Crazy Heart (dramas about musicians sometimes get placed under comedy/musical, i.e. La Vie en Rose)?
Anyway, my current predictions:
BEST PICTURE- DRAMA
An Education
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Up in the Air
BEST PICTURE- COMEDY/MUSICAL
(500) Days of Summer
In the Loop
Julie & Julia
Nine
A Serious Man
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall, Nine
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
BEST ACTOR- DRAMA
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
BEST ACTRESS- DRAMA
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
BEST ACTOR- COMEDY/MUSICAL
Peter Capaldi, In the Loop
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Robert De Niro, Everybody’s Fine
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Pirate Radio
BEST ACTRESS- COMEDY/MUSICAL
Sandra Bullock, The Proposal
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Zooey Deschanel, (500) Days of Summer
Meryl Streep, It’s Complicated
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones
BEST SCREENPLAY
An Education
The Lovely Bones
Precious
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
Where the studio campaigns them isn’t necessarily where they end up. The Globes committee often reassigns pictures to the other category.
I wouldn’t count out Bright Star–you gotta figure they’ll have a costume drama in there somewhere, and if it ain’t that, then it’ll be Young Victoria. i’m not feeling Invictus–I think people are beginning to tire of Eastwood prolific-ness, and Apartheid dramas haven’t fared well at all the past few years.
The Lovely Bones should have no problem getting recognition in the Best Picture Drama category at the Globes. Even if it sucks. I mean, didn’t Cold Mountain and Memoirs of a Geisha make it in?
Up in the Air kind of reminds me of Rachel Getting Married last year, in that it’s technically a drama with bits of humor in it. I’d say it goes drama like RGM last year.
Please Globes, put Up In The Air in comedy category and hurt Weinstein’s Nine¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ Nine its a film only made for the Weinstein’s to get nominations and some Oscars¡¡¡ (I hope that they won’t win anything¡¡¡) and all the people here is praising and selecting and speculating all day about films that nobody has seen yet¡
Definitely, the Oscars and Globes don’t give the awards to the best, only do the award to best marketing¡ It’s a shame¡¡ For this reason, I won’t see Nine and other films only made to win some Oscar¡
And Young Victoria it’s a little thing that doesn’t deserves too much praise, only a correct film with a good performance by Emily Blunt but not terrific.
Sandra Bullock and Penelope Cruz nominated and not Michelle Pffeifer for Cheri???? Come on, the world is crazy¡ And Meryl two times? ha,ha
DRAMA:
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Precious
COMEDY:
(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
Julie & Julia
Nine
Up in the Air
Winners:
Precious & Up in the Air
winners…
up in the air and nine
THE WINNERS:
Picture Drama: PRECIOUS
Picture Comedy or Musical: NINE
Director: JASON REITMAN, UP IN THE AIR
Actor Drama: JEFF BRIDGES, CRAZY HEART
Actress Drama: CAREY MULLIGAN, AN EDUCATION
Actor Comedy or Musical: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, NINE
Actress Comedy or Musical: MERYL STREEP, JULIE & JULIA
Supporting Actor: STANLEY TUCCI, THE LOVELY BONES
Supporting Actress: MO’NIQUE, PRECIOUS
Screenplay: PRECIOUS
Score: WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE
Song: UP IN THE AIR
Animated: UP
Foreign: A PROPHET
I think Basterds and Up in the Air will be pushed to Comedy. They always try to squeeze everything they can into Comedy.
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