I decided to have some fun with the latest Gurus chart – no I didn’t do anything so dramatic as to flip the world on its axis but I did predict Sophia Loren a sentimental nod for Nine and Zach Galifianakis for The Hangover – I kind of wish I’d read the comments on the Star Trek post first – I might have put down Leonard Nimoy. Here’s the thing about Oscar predicting – at this stage, one has nothing to lose so why not play around a little.
Oh, and I’m the only Guru who is not predicting Up for Best Pic – I’ve stated my reasons enough on this site. So many live actions to choose from….animated has its own category…Wall-E didn’t even get in….I am sure I will have egg all over my face. There is always that movie readers get to grapefruit my face with and Up will probably be it.
What would be your wild card picks? They have to be people no one saw coming, though. It’s the kind of thing that, if it pays off, it pays off big!
61 Responses for "Gurus of Gold Updates, Wild Card Picks"
It’s kind of amazing how much consensus there is already – the first 11 movies on the best picture chart have over 9 votes, and everything has 2 or less.
Nimoy for Star Trek!
Sherlock Homes: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Jude Law), Original Screenplay
Tahar Ramin for Best Actor in A Prophet.
Not only do I not think Up won’t be nominated for Best Picture, I don’t even think it’s going to win Best Animated Feature.
Everybody is saying, “oooh, but look at the box-office! That proves it!”
For me, quite the contrary. The top box-office animated nominee rarely wins.
Nine shut out (this is because Chicago should not have gotten nearly as much acclaim as it did), Sharlto Copley for best actor, Avatar shut out of the top categories (the story does not look interesting),
Coraline or Fantastic Mr. Fox for best piture.
Since the Best Actress is skewing so young anyway (Mulligan, Sidibe, Ronan, Cornish), Isabelle Fuhrman gets nominated for ORPHAN.
winona ryder in supporting actress for ‘the private lives of pippa lee’. everyone loves to see a comeback nod and she’s had a lot of buzz since returning to high profile status with ’star trek’.
im going to say paula patton for precious (along with the winner mo’nique)
I’m with you on the “Up” front: Too may old farts with genre bias in the Academy. If they couldn’t bring themselves to nominate the single best picture of 2008 because it was animated, no way they nominate this one.
Hunter, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Sherlock ended up with all of those except Screenplay,
Mariah Carey for Precious
Natalie Portman for Brothers
Wes Anderson for Best Director
“I’m with you on the “Up” front: Too may old farts with genre bias in the Academy.”
Generally, i would aggre with you on this… but the story centers arond the relationship between an old man and a young grandchild-like kid. This is, i think, one of the most accessible animated movies to the older generation in years…
as far as my wild cards….
Melanie Laurant – Inglourious Basterds
Away we Go getting nominated for something… probably Maya Rudolph.
Even though the Academy tends to skew older for Best Actor, my wild card picks are:
James McAvoy (The Last Station)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (500 Days of Summer)
Admittedly, they’re both not completely out of left field, but the Gurus don’t have them up, so might as well mention them.
District 9 for Best Pic
Is that wild card enough?
Sophia Loren in Nine
Mariah Carey in Precious
Anthony Mackie in Hurt Locker
Sasha, I don’t think you’re so off the mark not listing Up for Best Picture.
I too would love to see a nomination for Winona Ryder in ‘Pippa Lee!’ I so wish she’d get better roles! I think her signing onto Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan” could be a great thing for her…hopefully!
I don’t know why she doesn’t get any awards attention, but Kerry Washington performance in Life is Hot in Cracktown gets my vote. I don’t get it. She deserves more attention!!!! Just like Jeffrey Wright
Brothers turns out to be incredible, Best Picture/ Actress (Portman)/ Screenplay nominations
Crazy Hearts Best Picture nomination (along with the expected Best Actor)
Robert De Niro for the win in Best Actor
I can see: Portman in Lead for Brothers.
or
Maggie Gyllenhall for Lead in Crazy Heart.
In best Picture category if (only if) Avatar is not a huge box office hit like 200 million by the end of January kind of The Dark Knight type smash I can see Sherlock Holmes taking the Box Office nomination from it. If Holmes is very good and draws big.
Jude Law in Supp. Actor
@RYAN about the actor for A Prophet I read somewhere (it might have been on Incontention) that the film will be eligible in For. Film this year but not eligible in the other categories until next year like Hero was in 2002. Is that true?
(500) Days of Summer
Best Pic
Best Original Screenplay
(Extreme Wild Card)
Best Editing
Best Actor
Woody Harrelson for Best Supporting Actor
Robin Wright for Lead Actress
The White Ribbon on everything
I would put Avatar, que dramatic Carl Orff music, but after those terrible trailers…wait my expectations or so low I now consider it the wild card.
@ Tory Smith: I would pick Kerry Washington for Mother & Child. I thought she was the standout of the cast.
Other wild cards:
- Amanda Seyfried for Chloe (if it gets a 2009 release)
- Rosamund Pike or Olivia Williams for An Education (supporting act.)
- Away We Go for picture….or at least a maya rudolph/screenplay combo
Best Actor: Hugh Dancy – Adam
@ Brian – good call on Amanda Seyfried.
My wild card…GLORIOUS 39 (pending release). Romola Garai is fanatastic! (as is the film)
And some love for Away We Go would be nice. (songs?)
Best Supporting Actress:
Celia Weston – Observe and Report
Lorna Raver – Drag Me To Hell
Diana Korzun – Cold Souls
These are TRUE LONGSHOTS, and wonderful WILD CARD performances.
Bill Murray, supporting actor for Zombieland
Up is, I think, one of the most hallmark card-like movies in years, and experienced movie-goers should know better.
That being said, I submit Richard Kind in supporting for A Serious Man. Not a lot of screen time, but everything on screen is memorable.
Rachel Weisz in The Brothers Bloom for Supporting Actress.
The fact that this is even a question is insulting. Behind Mo’Nique, this is the best Supporting Actress performance of the year.
Sigourney Weaver for Avatar is probably the biggest wildcard in my predictions right now, I know it may not be likely but I’m betting on Nine being the big December release that is DOA (thus freeing up supporting actress a bit) and Weaver was nominated for her previous Cameron sci-fi film.
Jessica Biel Best Actress for Easy Virtue
Given that there’ll be 10 nominees I’d think Best Picture is the place to see a real surprise. So I’ll join Jason M and say Coraline for Best Picture.
Ditto to Fig: (500) Days of Summer for Best Original Screenplay.
maybe not so didn’t see coming but Serious Man also for Best Original Screenplay.
As for Up- I don’t think it should get nominated for BP, not because animated has its own category, but because it doesn’t deserve it. I love Pixar, and I really liked Up but it’s not BP material, WALL E was and it didn’t get in. If Up makes it, it will only be because WALL E- if that makes sense.
My wild card: Sam Rockwell, Best Actor for Moon.
“Tahar Ramin for Best Actor in A Prophet.”
I’m with Ryan on this Best Actor prediction. My other wild cards would be Zooey Deschanel
and Maggie Gyllenhaal.
With the move to 10 this year, I hope that Pedro Almodovar will finally get recognized for the stellar work he has done over the past 15 years. There is not one foreign language film on the gurus list and I think that maybe the academy may want one there. I hope that the movie lives up to the amazing characters and mood he created in Volver and Talk to Her.
-Broken Embraces-Best Pic
Been thinking about this some more.
Nicolas Cage for Bad Lieutenant.
Would love to see Sigourney Weaver nominated again, but if she didn’t get a nod for Snow Cake, Imaginary Heroes, a Map of the World, and especially the Ice Storm, then it ain’t happening for Avatar. Still, I’m stubborn, so I choose to believe Nine will tank, Avatar will be so ubiquitous it’ll even scoop up an acting nod, Santa Claus really exisits, and the world will end in 2012.
Sigourney Weaver for Avatar.
Above ^ Ben M. has articulated something I’ve been feeling all day…about “Nine” being DOA…
I saw it onstage and liked it immensely mainly because of Antonio Banderas dazzling charisma. As a Latin Lover who drives this cast of women crazy, it was totally believable, but enjoyable as it was I still can’t remember ONE SINGLE SONG! And I’m the biggest musical comedy queen there is…I know there’s a lot of competition in this category, but hey! I LOVE movie musicals. WHEN.THEY.WORK.
And tonight on ET they had a number done by Kate Hudson, the same stripper on a fashion runway with flashbulbs popping and even the ubquitous pole dance.
But here’s the thing, I STILL can’t remember the song, AND it looked like all the other clips we’ve seen of “Nine.” All those songs sound alike…and he’s made all the women LOOK ALIKE….
This does not bode well…They starting to screen it this weekend…And I’m sure Jeff Wells and DP and all the others who’re invited will have something to say…or maybe this is the way they mute the major bloggers..They embargo them…
I tried to get in…but no go…I just guess I’m too irrepressible…I can’t keep my mouth shut…soooo I was told I would have to wait until December.!!!!
So I’ll patiently wait..but I’m not happy about it…Roger Friedman & co. will all be chomping at the bit to say what they think…
The problem with the original “Nine” show and score is that it’s abstract. And the music’s not much. Does anyone even remember who wrote? I should know this. I know Mario Fratti wrote the book. It’s a show I remember the book being better than the music.
And with all those women…and the similar-sounding numbers…A director’s has to make each one DIFFERENT..There’s not much a plot. None as a matter of fact. It’s not linear. It’s horizontal…
And I’m with Sasha once again. No “Up” in BP. And for Best Actress personally I would have said, are you listening David? Carrie, Gabourey, Meryl, Audrey Tautou…and Tilda Swinton…In that order…
And yes, just imagine if “Nine” is DOA…
“Avatar” aint’ happenin’ either. It’s ANIMATED. It won’t be in the BP category. Maybe animatation. And Sigourney isn’t going to be nominated for a flat part that mostly VOICE WORK.
Ryan B, Bad Lieutenant is going direc-to-DVD next year I think I read. So there ya go.
My Wild Cars:
Mary & Max for Best Animated Feature
Julie & Julia for Best Picture
Stanley Tucci for Julie & Julia and not The Lovely Bones
Bad Lieutenant comes out in theaters next week. There’s an article on Entertainment Weekly’s site right now. They say Cage is “mesmerizing”.
It’s my wild card and I’m sticking to it.
I just came from This is IT and found it highly entertaining and actually think it should be considered a best picture.
I’ll go with the kid from The Road for supporting actor.
I’ll go against opinion and say neither actress from Up In The Air will get a Supporting nomination. While both good in their own way (Farmiga finally gets to do sexy!), neither really has to dig deep with their characterisations (which is probably a script issue).
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix – Two Lovers
Supp Actress: Jessica Haines – Disgrace
Why do Anthony & Eugene each have 9 picks for supp actress?
Tom Ford (for director) & Ben Whishaw (for supp).
Tilda Swinton will be my wild card.
She will be picked as Best Actress in the upcoming National Board of Review.
Then this will be enough ‘trigger’ for her to be a contender for the Best Actress race.
Just like Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball. In a small movie few people saw then it built up.
Of course, theyll pick George Clooney for Best Actor.
If Invictus is screened for the critics already, then they’ll pick Morgan Freeman.
The National Board of Review could do that. They COULD pick Tilda. Ditto Audrey Tautou.
But they ALWAYS pick George. Clooney, I mean. I think they’ve awarded him more than anyone else that’s in the race for Best Actor this year…
And they also always pick Clint.
The White Ribbon for picture, director, screenplay, cinematography.
I have to say, after looking at the Gurus of Gold chart, the supporting actor race is looking mighty weak this year. In terms of Supporting Actress, I was surprised to find three more names from An Education missing: Rosamund Pike, Emma Thompson, and Olivia Williams. And there seems to be an error–Stanley Tucci was listed twice for the same film–Julie and Julia (#9 and #12).
I would love to see Robin Wright Penn nominated. I would also love to see Patricia Clarkson up there for Cairo Time. It would be cool if all the director nods were women and racial minorities (though I’m pretty sure Jason Reitman’s got one slot sewn up). But I would like to add Rebecca Miller to the list of possibles.
8 men have multiple T5 votes; 9 movies; & 10 women inc 3 from Nine/2 from Up in the Air so the men come from a slightly larger variety of films than the women (8 vs. 7).
Last week’s had 7 lead actresses with multiple votes who are actually being campaigned as such (the obvs 7).
I predict a collective oscar for the entire cast of Nine. Something new and really wild.
In the Loop for Best Picture and James Gandolfini and Peter Capaldi for Best Supporting Actor.
Lluis Homar in “Broken Embraces” for BEST ACTOR,
Michael Sheen in “The Damn United” also for BEST ACTOR.
(and Invictus and Avatar get snubbed in the major category – while “Up” is in!)
My long shot is Betty White for The Proposal. A long shot, but she is old and loved.
And I’ll agree with Zach Galifianikis? for The Hangover. Both scene stealer roles. Stranger things have happened.
Michael Stuhlbarg for Best Actor for “A Serious Man”
Fantastic Mr. Fox for Adapted Screenplay
Where the Wild Things Are for Best Picture
Invictus goes the way of Gran Torino
I keep seeing the ads on Hot Blog for Betty White so I don’t know if the studio is serious or just filling a contractual obligation, but I agree there’s an outside chance. Beloved actress in a summer comedy — definitely in the realm of possibility.
My long shot? Best Actress nom for Catalina Saadevra (sp?) for The Maid. Great reviews and fills the foreign language performance spot.
DRAG ME TO HELL in all categories. Top reviewed film of the year, major director, great performances, suffers from the usual genre bias and neglect.
I couldn’t agree more about Drag Me To Hell. Just watched it AGAIN on DVD. What a pleasure.
Bright star for BP, director, actor and supporting actor (only actress seems a sure nom)
This would be a really wild card nomination:
Fyvush Finkel for A Serious Man. He’s a beloved veteran, has won an Emmy (Picket Fences), and would be a sentimental favorite for older Academy members.
A longshot for sure . . . but stranger things have happened.
Tobey Maguire for Best Supporting Actor for “Brothers”
David Poland has apparently seen it and wrote :
“Tobey Maguire may not be seen as an underdog, but with all the attention at Lionsgate on Precious, his startling turn as the brother who they think was killed in action will have to fight to get traction, but is as worthy as any performance this year and in Maguire’s career. When Maguire is at his best, there seems to be no space at all between his soul. That’s what Jim Sheridan got from him here.”
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